David Smith - CiM Dinner July 2009

Global Futures& Foresight

David SmithChief executive

Global Futures and Foresight

© Global Futures and Foresight 2009


Radio, Airplanes & X-Rays

"Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax."

William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, British scientist, 1899

mathematician and physicist

"There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now”

1824-1907


A380

Flying machines

"There will never be a bigger plane built."

A Boeing engineer, after the first

flight of the 247, a twin engine

plane that holds ten people.

1,000 seats

http://images.scripting.com/archiveScriptingCom/2005/01/18/380.jpg


Radio with pictures

• TV will never be a serious competitor for radio because people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; the average family hasn't time for it.

New York Times, 1939


Turning the world upside down

1872 2002Global Futures

& Foresight

The Present

Global Futures& ForesightSource: New Global Survey shows trust levels at a low

http://www.edelman.co.uk/insights/trust/Edelman%20Trust%20Barometer%20Release.pdf

According to the ninth annual Edelman Trust barometer,

Trust• Trust in UK government rose to 41% in 2008.• Most trusted sectors

– Technology (76%),

– Biotech(66%)

– Healthcare (65%)

• Least trusted sectors

– Banks (45%)

– Media(42%)

– Insurance (40%)

• Creating Jobs and Socially responsibleactivities are the top factor for building trust in business

• Global warming (77%) is the most important issue for companies to address.

• Credibility of ‘a person like yourself’ is influenced by

– shared interests (61%)

January 2009

50%

75%

25%

50%

75%

25%

1950’s 1980’s

66%

44%

2000’s

Do you tend to trust people ?

29%

What are you doing to build and reinforce trust?

1/2


FTSE 100 (12 months)



The “V or W”


Recessionary strategies

• Market Share

• Mergers and Acquisitions

• Cost reduction

• Efficiencies

• Agility

• Innovation

• New Products & Services

• New distribution

• New business models

• New participantshttp://news.icm.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/image/552-1215523032.jpg


The mother of invention


The FutureGlobal Futures

& Foresightmycpf.cpf.gov.sg

“Be fearful when others are

greedy, and be greedy when

others are fearful.“

Warren Buffett


Winning Strategies

“The winners will be the companies who knew how to identify opportunities in the

downturn.”Jim Davis, chief marketing officer, SAS

19331930 1932 Global Futures& Foresight

Winning Strategies

“It's really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them.”

Steve Jobs, Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO, Apple


Winning Strategies

“We don’t ask consumers what they want. They don’t know. Instead we apply our brain power to what they need, and will

want, then make sure we’re there, ready.”Akio Morita, Co-Founder, Sony Corporation


Winning Strategies

“Great work comes from insight. L Insights are going to come in so many different ways.”

Laura Lang, CEO, Digitas USA, March 2008


Global Trends1. Global instability 2. Volatile worldwide

economy 3. Globalisation 2.0 4. Global warming

5. Energy, water and talent shortages

6. Bio continues to grow 7. Aging societies

8. Unretirement9. Work-life blend10. Feminization11. Wealth, health and

happiness12. Urbanization

13. Declining trust

14. Cult of celebrity

15. Individualization

16. Age of brands

17. Social applications

18. Technological convergence

19. Video everywhere

20. VOip & ipTV

21. Nano technology

22. Digital 24/7 lifestyles

23. Cashless society

24. Mobility & convenience

25. Rise of the robots


In 1977, the year that Elvis

died, there were 150

impersonators in the USA.

Now there are 85,000.

If the same rate of growth

continues, Elvis impersonators

will account for a third of the

world's population by 2019.

http://www.management-issues.com/2006/5/25/opinion/the-future-of-work-its-life-jim-but-not-as-we-know-it.asp


0 10

5

Risk


New World Order


Structural change

‘If one big structural change comes out of the crisis, it will be a shift in ownership of the banking industry from west to east.’

David Lascelles,

A former banking editor of the

Financial Times

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A844188

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12274054

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea450788-1573-11de-b9a9-0000779fd2ac.htmlGlobal Futures

& Foresight

Changing influence

http:/ /images.google .co.uk/imgres?imgurl=ht tp:/ /s tatic . flickr.com/50/109139708_79b5b5d6eb. jpg&i mgrefurl=http :// thiver.wordpress.com/2006/03/07/china-will-probably-be-biggest-world-economy-before-2015/&usg=__5Qq92q9yvfqIgkOS6BpC8sVnrvg=&h=366&w=500&sz=57&h l=en&start=29 &um=1 &tbnid= IMvfSe7AF F0EH M:&tbnh=95 &tbnw=130&prev=/i mages%3Fq %3Dthe %2Bworlds %2B largest%2Beconom ies%2 Bchart%26start%3D20%26ndsp%3D20%26u m%3D1 %26hl %3Den%26sa %3DN

relat

ive


Economic Growth – Next 10 Years

• BRIC economies:– deliver 40% global growth by 2018.

– 30% global GDP - China makes up 18%.(1)

"We now conceive of China challenging the U.S. for number one slot by 2027.

This is around 10 years earlier than when we first looked at the issue.“

Goldman Sachs economist who coined the BRIC concept told Reuters on June 9th 2009

(1) Ernst & Young in December 2008 forecast/ Goldman Sachs June 9th 2009 forecast


Global population growth

www.watchblog.com Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org

20096.8 billion

1.75bn of next 2.5bn will be born in Muslim countries

The global population is expected to rise from 6.5bn in 2005 to 7.7bn in 2020 and 9.6bn in 2050


Changing influence

Source: United Nations Population Division, Global Futures& Foresight

Changing ethnicity

www.brusselsjournal.com


The world


Depletion of resources

• Tensions over water heightened by 2015,

in Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, South

Asia and Northern China

• India uses up/pollutes groundwater by 2020

• Bio-fuels compete with food for land/water.

One year of food or a tank of SUV fuel.

• 2oC temperature increase means a 12% to

20% fall in global food production by 2100.

• By 2050 we will be 9.6bn but eat like 13bn.

• Global agriculture output must double in the

next 30 years to sustain population growth.

World Bank estimates

According to Stanford University and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researchers

Unabated climate change could cost the world 5% of GDP/year; if more dramatic predictions come to pass, the cost could be more than 20% of GDP.


Future CSR directions

• By 2030 - global energy demand grows by 55%.

• By 2025 - extreme water scarcity impacts 25% of world population.

• The scramble for resources will be a major cause of conflict.

• The solution is to be more efficient and promote sustainability.

• CSR-led initiatives can:– Offset rising prices

– Provide a competitive advantage

– Act as a major tool for the aversion of social crisis.

• Sustainability & efficiency save cost & increase the company’s value.

http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/

Rising sea levels, increasing droughts and famine, and a decrease in water availability will have dramatic impacts

Global Futures& ForesightImage sources www.mondolithic.com, www.metoffice.com

• Do we know the environmental footprint of our activities?• Have we assessed the cost advantages of reducing our footprint on the environment?• How close are we to achieving carbon neutral, waste neutral and energy neutral status?

Climate change & staying in business

“Companies that are not adequately managing the consequences of climate change on their business will not be welcomed as our customers in the future”

Rick MurrayChief Claims Strategist

Swiss Re


New People


Ageing populations

� Since 1840, the highest average life expectancy has improved by a quarter of a year every year.

• Those born in the

– 1950’s expect to live to beyond 90

– 1960’s onwards to live beyond 100

• Record 9,000 100 years olds in 2007

• Rising to 40,000 by 2031.

• 1.2 million by 2075*

UK 79 in 2009 (Total Pop’n)100 in 2090110 in 2130

* Office of National Statistics


and what do older people want ?

• Larger Print• Brighter lights

• Seating

• Parking

• Toilets

• Time

Etc.


And we’re living longer lives

� Dr. Aubrey de Grey of Cambridge

University believes that human life

expectancies have the potential to

reach 500, or possibly even 1000.

B.A., M.A. and Ph.D., University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

“The first person to live to 1,000 might be 60 already”


Obesity

By 2015, approximately 2.3 billion adults will be overweight and more than 700 million will be obese.

(The World Health Organisation)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1993 2003 2005 2010

Men

Women


Too few kids

Children per woman worldwideAverage children per woman in UK now 1.9 highest since 1980


Up or down the workers?

• Aged 15 – 59 by 2050

– India will experience growth

– Down 5% - Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia

– Down 5% to 10% - USA, UK and Australia

– Down 15% - China

United Nations Global Futures& Foresight

Upturn Consumer


Impact Consumers

• Social attitudes will be shaken:– The deeper the recession

– The longer the recession

• A long, deep recession could alter the attitudes of society irrevocably...

...or at least a segment of society

http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=download&id=834091


Three plausible future scenarios

1. Goods, Greed and Glamour

2. Modesty and Austerity

3. New Status

But which attitudes?


Goods, Greed and Glamour

• The recession is a pause in the journey to a more

consumerist society.

• Greed resurfaces as soon as the market recovers.

• Once price-watching gets boring, people spend again.

• Government stimulation packages signal spending is

good and patriotic.


Modesty and Austerity

• Saving now a habit; deleveraging personal finances

seen as virtuous.

• Penny pinching seen as the clever game.

• Savvy consumers trade down, use comparison and

voucher websites.

• Back to basics, eg. Fashion is 'body covering‘, food

for calories.


New Status

• Emphasis on ethics - honesty, hard work, social

responsibility, ecology.

• New status spending non material areas: arts and

culture, self education, health, beauty and spirituality;

• The focus is towards 'spending on what money can't

buy' – a paradox!

• People have got money again & want to spend.


Indicative Projections

Shor t, shallow Short, deep Long, deep

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Greed

Austerity

New status

% p

op

ula

tion a

nticip

ate

d


Business ModelsNew


Premise underlying re-invention

• Reconfigured relationships.

• Mash-up business models.

• Consumer increasingly powerful.

• Innovation is a key differentiator.

• Convenience & Quality expected.

http://media.economist.com/images/20050402/1405LD1.jpg


ChangeChange

Change

ChangeChangeChange


Disintermediation

• Music– itunes – Individual songs/not albums

• Travel Agency– Trip Adviser – book hotels/not packages

– Easyjet – book flights/not packages

• Lending/borrowing money– Zopa – direct to lender/cut out banks

• Real Estate– Findaproperty, Tesco Estate Agency

Part of the rise in people taking control and not relying on others.

3/4


Social Networks

• Global relationships• Learning• Sourcing ideas• Co-creation• Recruitment• Building relationships• Community engagement• Networked business models

Over 1.5 billion people in top 40 Social Networks

Source: The GFF Pulse expert panel survey

Doing Business Networks


Trust & Social Networking

• 7% increase in positive word of mouth unlocks 1% additional company growth (London School of Economics (LSE))

• 2% reduction in negative word of mouth boosts sales by 1%. (LSE Figures)

http://www.bazaarvoice.com/industryStats.html

http://www.dreamsystemsmedia.com/imgs/social-media-marketing.png


Innovation Networks

• You can’t know it all

or have all the best ideas

• Ford spent $8bn on R&D

in 2005 and lost $17bn in 2006

• Learn to connect - Proctor & Gamble did– For every P&G researcher 200 more existed outside.

– Built an external development network of 3m

– Launch time halved and innovation rate up 75%


In a crowded 24/7 world

• Context

• Community

• Conversation

• Relevance

Gerd Leonard – Media Futurist

Global Futures& ForesightGerd Leonard – Media Futurist


Technology


Technology - What will it be doing

– Connection– Image– Video everywhere– Voice recognition– Robotics– Cognitive recognition– Health diagnostics– Nano ‘surgery’– Virtual reality– Simulation– Tracking– Surveillance– Security– Vehicle control– Personalisation– Integration– Outside Technology


Nanotechnology Breakthroughs

Nanotechnology Breakthroughs• Nanotechnology — the manipulation of materials and machines at the nano-

scale — one billionth of a meter — promises exciting new developments.

Two to five years from now:• Complete medical diagnostics on a single computer chip.

Five to 10 years• Drugs that turn AIDS & cancer into manageable conditions.

10 to 15 years• Artificial intelligence so sophisticated you can't tell if you're

talking on the phone with a human or a machine.

Highest Growth over the next 5 years :– electronics (30.3%)

– biomedical (56.2%)

– consumer applications(45.9%)

http://www.wfs.org/tomorrow/index.htm


Internet traffic

• Annual growth of 50% - 60%.

• IP traffic in 2012 will be 100

times larger than 2002.

• Mobile data traffic will double

each year from 2008 to 2012.

Andrew Odlyzko - Cisco

http://gigaom.com/2008/06/16/big-growth-for-internet-to-continue-cisco-predicts/

http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/images/white_paper_c11-481374-03.jpg


The Grid

• Internet could soon be obsolete.

• The Grid is 10,000 times faster

than a typical broadband

connection.

http://www.grid.phys.uvic.ca/assets/sun_figures/Grid-2.jpg

“With this kind of computing power, future generations will

have the ability to collaborate and communicate in ways older people like me cannot even imagine”

David Britton, professor of physics at Glasgow University


Telepresencing

5


Virtual World Networks

The social networking application market:$ 46.8 million in 2006$428.3 million by 2009


Artificial Intelligence

• Artificial Intelligence’s - we will interact with them just like humans.

• e-technology will have advanced to the point where there are fewer human interactions with a more strategic focus and broader capabilities

• Face recognition that identifies emotional changes.

Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394

10

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Actroid 1


Summary

1. Attitude to risk

2. Drivers of change

3. Strategic Capability

4. Product/Service Innovation


“If things seem under control, you’re just not going fast

enough.”Mario Andretti


Imagine itIf you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead

[email protected]

�+44 7932 408901

www.thegff.com

Thank you


• Agree the top three drivers that could impact you most?

• Who would you extend your EXTERNAL network to, to generate ideas for innovation?

• What’s your attitude to riskL.and those around you?

• Discuss what EXTERNAL stimuli you engage with at the start of your strategic planning cycle?

Date post:	13-Sep-2014
Category:	Business
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