Projected changes in clear-sky erythemal and vitamin D effective UV doses until the end of this century M. de Paula Corrêa 1 ; S. Godin-Beekmann 2 ; G. Moraes 1 ; P. Saiag 3 1 Natural Resources Institute, Federal University of Itajubá, Brazil 2 LATMOS - University Versailles SQY, Observatoire de Versailles SQY, Guyancourt, France 3 University Versailles SQY, faculté de médecine, Boulogne-Billancourt, France Atmospheric Sciences Federal University of Itajubá BRAZIL
Transcript
Projected changes in clear-sky erythemal and vitamin D effective UV
doses until the end of this century
M. de Paula Corrêa1; S. Godin-Beekmann2; G. Moraes1; P. Saiag3
1Natural Resources Institute, Federal University of Itajubá, Brazil 2LATMOS - University Versailles SQY, Observatoire de Versailles SQY, Guyancourt, France
3University Versailles SQY, faculté de médecine, Boulogne-Billancourt, France
Atmospheric Sciences Federal University of Itajubá
BRAZIL
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UV radiation effects on humans
Benefits: Vitamin D synthesis Prevention of diseases such as rickets, osteoporosis and several types of cancers
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Harmful effects: skin cancers, premature aging and several eye and skin disorders
http://flipper.diff.org/
https://zrocderm.com
UV radiation at the Earth’s surface
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UVR levels are influenced by: Sun position: hour of the day, season of the year, latitude and longitude Geographical variables: reflectance of the surface and altitude Atmospheric variables: ozone, aerosols, cloud cover and type
Source: WHO – Global Solar UV Index: A Practical Guide.
UV projections for this century
The main goal of this study is to evaluate the variability of the Erythemal weighted UVR (E-UVR) and vitamin-D synthesis weighted UVR (D-UVR) from 2006 to 2100, using projections of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5) simulations for the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
1. Europe (Corrêa et al., Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2013, 12, 1053–1064)
a. Atmospheric variables studied
i. Ozone content changes
ii. Aerosols optical properties and content changes
b. Database: Institute Pierre Simon Laplace Earth System Model (IPSL-CM5 ESM)
2. South America (M.Sc. dissertion of G. Moraes, Fed. Univ. of Itajuba - Brazil, Aug 2015)
a. Atmospheric variables studied
i. Ozone content changes
b. Database: IPSL-CM5 ESM, France; Community Climate System Model, USA (CCSM4); Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Japan (MIROC5); The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Model, Australia (CSIRO-Mk3.6)
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UVR projections for Europe
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Summary of the simulations
RCP Representative Concentration Pathways (related to the possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100)
UVR projections for Europe
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Total ozone contents through this century
RCP 2.6
RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6
RCP 8.5
RCP 2.6
RCP 8.5
RCP 2.6
RCP 8.5
UVR projections for Europe
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Total aerosol optical depth contents through this century
RCP 2.6
RCP 8.5
UVR projections for Europe
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Mean E-UVR daily doses differences between 2100 and today
UVR projections for Europe
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Mean D-UVR daily doses differences between 2100 and today
UVR projections for South America
1. South America (M.Sc. dissertion of G. Moraes, Fed. Univ. of Itajuba - Brazil, Aug 2015)
a. Atmospheric variables studied
i. Ozone content changes
b. Database: IPSL-CM5 ESM, France; Community Climate System Model, USA (CCSM4); Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Japan (MIROC5); The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Model, Australia (CSIRO-Mk3.6)
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This dendogram shows the arrangement of the following climate models cluster: CCSM4, CSIRO-Mk3.6, IPSL-CM5A-LR and MIROC5. The similarities between the models were evaluated in an exploratory way (mean linkage clustering). CSIRO and IPSL model shows larger similarities for the total ozone content projections.
UVR projections for South America
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BCF - RCP8.5
Base Comandante Ferraz – BCF Ushuaia – USH São Paulo – SÃO Manaus – MAN
Manaus – MAN São Paulo – SÃO Ushuaia – USH Base Comandante Ferraz – BCF
UVR projections for Europe and South America
Summary of the results
1. only ozone effect (aerosol-free atmosphere)
a. D-UVR is exclusively a function of UVB radiation and is therefore more sensitive to the TOC variations.
b. E-UVR and D-UVR attenuations increase toward northern latitudes.
c. Stronger UVR attenuation during the spring when the TOC are larger.
d. In higher latitudes, mean relative attenuation (%) due to the long term changes at the end of the 21st century can reach +20% for E-UVR and +30% for D-UVR
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UVR projections for Europe
Summary of the results
2. ozone + aerosol effects
a. Aerosols provides UVR attenuation for both E-UVR and D-UVR. Thus, a significant decrease in AOD could provide an increase of the UVR at the surface. In a favourable GHG scenario, the AOD could have a dominant effect compared to the ozone effect.
b. During the summer, when the higher AOD and lower TOC are commonly observed, E-UVR can increase by approximately 5% in Central Europe due to AOD diminution.
c. On the other hand, the ozone increase in more polluted scenarios as RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, should provide a significant E-UVR decrease at the end of the century.
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UVR projections for Europe and South America
Main consequences
a. E-UVR attenuation caused by climate changes will not provide a protection condition for diseases caused by sun exposure, mainly in Southern Europe, Tropical and Subtropical regions.
b. Nevertheless, a possible reduction of the D-UVR during spring and autumn may require longer ET for adequate vitamin D synthesis in Northern Europe.
Note: It is important to emphasize that our calculations have considered clear sky conditions!
