Deaths from smoking

in New Zealand

Deaths from smokingin New Zealand

• Particular emphasis is given to the number of deathsin middle age (defined as ages 35 to 69)

• Available on www.deathsfromsmoking.net

• This presentation provides estimates of the numberof deaths caused by smoking in New Zealand

Source of data: “Mortality from Smoking in Developed Countries, 1950–2000”

• Uses WHO mortality data for lung cancer and for other diseases, and UN population data

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

• Updated edition of a 1994 book, authored by aninternational team of scientists:

– Richard Peto, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Oxford

– Alan Lopez, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Queensland

– Jillian Boreham, Senior Research Fellow, University of Oxford

– Michael Thun, Chief of Epidemiology, American Cancer Society

Deaths from smoking, 1950 to 2000

• About half (90,000) of them were still in middle agewhen they died

• This was about one in five of all the deaths inmiddle age during this period (90,000 out ofthe 409,000 deaths at ages 35-69)

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

New Zealand

• About 171,000 people died from smoking during this50-year period in New Zealand

Annual deaths from smoking

• About 1,500 die in middle age from smoking

• Many of those killed in middle age would have lived on for 10, 20, 30 or more good years

• About 23 years of life are lost, on average, by those killed in middle age by smoking

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

New Zealand, year 2000

• Smoking kills about 4,300 people a year in New Zealand

Smoking causes about three times as many deaths as all non-medical causes put together

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

New Zealand, year 2000

1,614*non-medical

Murder / assault FallsSuicide DrowningRoad accidents PoisoningPlane crashes FiresTrain crashes Floods / stormsAccidents at work Other natural disastersAccidents at home Other accidents

*in year 2000

4,300smoking

Smoking kills 4,300 people a year,from many different diseases

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

New Zealand, year 2000

*includes 1,200 (85%) ofthe 1,406 lung cancer deaths

1,700cancer*

1,100 vascular(heart disease,stroke and other diseases of the arteries and veins)

1,100 respiratory

400 other

7,600total cancer deaths

About one in five of all cancer deathsis due to smoking

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

New Zealand, year 2000

1,700 (22%)from smoking

4,100male

1,100 (27%)from smoking

3,500female

600 (17%)from smoking

Male deaths in middle age from smoking

• This pattern is seen first in middle age, then in old age

• The next three slides concentrate on male deathsin middle age

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

• The main pattern of increase and, eventually,decrease in premature deaths from smoking is at a more advanced stage among men than among women

About one in five of all deaths inmiddle-aged men is due to smoking*

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

New Zealand, year 2000

*900 (21%) of the4,200 deaths at ages 35-69

Of 100 men aged 35 years …

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

New Zealand, year 2000

*risks at year 2000death rates for ages 35-69

• 22 die in middle age*

22%

• 5 of these 22 deaths are from smoking

5

Male death in middle age: changing hazards*

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

New Zealand, 1950-2000

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

39%

All causes

38%

38%

40%

41%

39%

36%

29%

27%

22%

34%

5

Smoking

9

9

13

12

8

7

5

10

14

11

Summary for the whole population

• Smoking kills about 4,300 men and women every year

• About 1,500 die in middle age from smoking

• Smoking causes about three times as many deaths as all non-medical causes put together

• About one in five of all cancer deaths is due to smoking

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

New Zealand, year 2000

In New Zealand:

Messages for the individual smoker

• Those killed in middle age lose many years

• Stopping smoking works– Even in early middle age, those who stop (before they have

lung cancer or some other fatal disease) avoid most of their risk of being killed by tobacco

– Stopping before middle age works even better

www.deathsfromsmoking.net

• The risk is big: about half are killed

Deaths from smoking: an electronic resourcewww.deathsfromsmoking.netPublished by International Union Against Cancer (UICC), Geneva: Switzerland, 2006

Funded byClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit (CTSU), University of OxfordInternational Union Against Cancer (UICC)Fogarty International Center, US NIHUK Medical Research CouncilCancer Research UK

Project team Richard Peto, Judith Watt, Jillian BorehamProject management Sinéad JonesAdvice and support Steve Woodward, Konrad Jamrozik, Lesley Walker, Trish CotterDesign bwa-design.co.uk