<Intensive Observation - 1> MJO & Diurnal Cycle Rain Study, Nov 2017 – Jan 2018

Mori et al. (2004)

DEC-mean Precipitation by TRMM

<Intensive Observation - 1> MJO & Diurnal Cycle Rain Study, Nov 2017 – Jan 2018

Target: MJO vs. Diurnal cycle rain near the coast linePeriod: Land-based Nov 16, 2017 – Jan 15, 2018

Ship-based Dec 02, 2017 – Jan 01, 2018Obs: Land-based C-band Doppler radar, X-band MPR, Radiosonde (8/day), AWS,

Video-sonde, CFH-ECC-sonde, etc.Ship-based C-band Polarimetric Radar, Radiosonde (8/day), LIDAR, SMet,

CTD, ADCP, Sampled water chemical analyses, Wave-glider, etc.Modeling: During the IOP, real-time forecasting is performed using NICAMParticipants: Japan JAMSTEC, Kyoto U, U Tokyo, U Toyama, Yamaguchi U, Kyushu U, etc.

Indonesia BMKG, BPPT, U Bengkulu, etc.

<Intensive Observation - 1> MJO & Diurnal Cycle Rain Study, Nov 2017 – Jan 2018

Target: MJO vs. Diurnal cycle rain near the coast linePeriod: Land-based Nov 16, 2017 – Jan 15, 2018

Ship-based Dec 02, 2017 – Jan 01, 2018Obs: Land-based C-band Doppler radar, X-band MPR, Radiosonde (8/day), AWS,

Video-sonde, CFH-ECC-sonde, etc.Ship-based C-band Polarimetric Radar, Radiosonde (8/day), LIDAR, SMet,

CTD, ADCP, Sampled water chemical analyses, Wave-glider, etc.Modeling: During the IOP, real-time forecasting is performed using NICAMParticipants: Japan JAMSTEC, Kyoto U, U Tokyo, U Toyama, Yamaguchi U, Kyushu U, etc.

Indonesia BMKG, BPPT, U Bengkulu, etc.

cf. Pre-YMC Observation (2015.11.09 - 12.20)

< Bengkulu >1) X-band Polarimetric Doppler Radar2) BMKG C-band Doppler radar 3) Radiosonde (RS92-SGPD: 8 times/day)4) Videosonde (18 times)5) AWS6) Disdrometers7) Sky Camera

< R/V MIRAI >1) C-band Polarimetric Doppler Radar2) Radiosonde (RS92-SGPD: 8 times/day)3) Surface Met4) CTD etc.

<Intensive Observation - 1> MJO & Diurnal Cycle Rain Study, Nov 2017 – Jan 2018

Bengkulu BMKG Radar

Mirai Polarimetric Radar

Bengkulu BMKG Radar

Mirai Polarimetric Radar

<Intensive Observation - 1> MJO & Diurnal Cycle Rain Study, Nov 2017 – Jan 2018

<Intensive Observation - 1> MJO & Diurnal Cycle Rain Study, Nov 2017 – Jan 2018

Same as pre-YMC (50-km off the coast)45/121 comes from north

(5S, 101E) outside of internal waters118/121 comes from north

Backward Trajectories (Courtesy of Prof. Kelvin Richards / UH, IPRC

Calculation is done using model output of Mercator (1/10 deg resolution).

SINTEX-F Seasonal Forecast

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html(Courtesy of Takeshi Doi / JAMSTEC)

El Nino is expected

Positive IOD is expected

NINO 3.4

IOD Mode Index

Dec 2017

SSTA

Precip

NICAM (Nonhydrostatic Icosahedarl Atmospheric Model) Simulation Plan

1) Global 7-km mesh, 14-day Forecast, Update daily2) Global 14-km mesh, 30-day Forecast, Update weekly

Earth Simulator © JAMSTEC

NICAM is a global cloud-system-resolving model, which run on the ES.

< Examples from Pre-YMC >Simulation results will be shared via YMC Web among YMC community for post analyses.

Courtesy: Tomoe Nasuno

forecastNCEP analysisPrecipitation

Forecasts (2017.11-12)+ pre/post 2 weeks

NICAM (Nonhydrostatic Icosahedarl Atmospheric Model) Simulation Plan

Variables:winds, temperature, moisture (6-hourly), OLR, precipitation, precipitable water, sensible and latent heat flux, SLP,Ice water path, liquid water path, surface temperature (3-hourly)

Charts:horizontal map (diurnal precipitation, weekly U850),Time-longitude section (precip, U850, TPW, OLR)

NCEP_FNL NICAM U850 (5S-5N)

forecast

<Intensive Observation – 2> Boreal Summer Monsoon Study in 2018

Main targets : Northward Propagating ISVPeriods: late June – late August 2018

Enhanced Radiosonde at Laoag (4/day),AWS, Doppler Radar, etc.

“CAMP2Ex”Aircraft (P-3)

“PISTON”R/V Tommy Thompson

Possible Enhancement of Radiosonde at Manado

“SCSTIMX”Aircraft, Ship, &Land-based Obs.

Palau Site by JAMSTECEnhanced Radiosonde (4/day), Lidar, AWS.