Decadal Study: Priorities for Weather Observations (Susan Avery)

8/7/2019 Decadal Study: Priorities for Weather Observations (Susan Avery)

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11

Earth Science and Applications fromSpace

National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond

Briefing to National Press FoundationWorkshop

March, 2007Prepublication:

http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11820.html



2

The Process




3

Organization of Study

• Executive Committee (18 members)

• Seven Thematically-Organized Panels1. Earth Science Applications and Societal Needs2. Land-use Change, Ecosystem Dynamics and Biodiversity

3. Weather (incl. space weather and chemical weather)4. Climate Variability and Change5. Water Resources and the Global Hydrologic Cycle6. Human Health and Security7. Solid-Earth Hazards, Resources and Dynamics



4

Executive Committee1. Rick Anthes, UCAR, co-chair, atmospheric science

2. Berrien Moore, U. New Hampshire, co-chair, biogeochemical cycling3. Jim Anderson, Harvard, atmospheric science, chemistry4. Bruce Marcus, TRW (ret), remote sensing5. Bill Gail, Microsoft Virtual Earth, civil space and IT6. Susan Cutter, U. South Carolina, hazards and risk7. Tony Hollingsworth, ECMWF, weather forecasting8. Kathie Kelly, U. Washington, physical oceanography/satellite obs

9. Neal Lane, Rice, policy10. Warren Washington, NCAR, climate11. Mary Lou Zoback, RMS, solid earth

Panel Chairs1. Tony Janetos, PNL/U. Md., ecology and land remote sensing2. Brad Hagar, MIT, solid earth

3. Ruth DeFries, U. Maryland, land cover change and remote sensing4. Susan Avery, CIRES and CU, meteorology, space weather5. Eric Barron, U. Texas, climate, paleoclimate6. Dennis Lettenmaier, U. Washington, hydrology7. Mark Wilson, U. Michigan, infectious disease and remote sensing



5

ESAS Charge

• Recommend a prioritized list of flight missionsand supporting activities to support nationalneeds for research and monitoring of thedynamic Earth system during the next decade.

• Identify important directions that shouldinfluence planning for the decade beyond.

Sponsors: NASA SMD, NOAA NESDIS, USGSGeography



6

Long ago and far away….

Woods Hole August 2004



7

CHALLENGES

• Community Buy-in

– First decadal survey

– Breadth of interests

• An organizational challenge was how to cover science/applicationthemes as well as scientific disciplines. in retrospect, havingadditional discipline-focused subgroups would have been useful

• Multi-Agency Issues

– Transition to Operations

– Sustained Research Operations

• Important changes during the study at NASA and NOAA

– Budgets

– NPOESS– GOES



8

healthy, secure,

prosperousand sustainable society for

all people on Earth

VISION

“ Understanding the complex,changing planet on which we

live, how it supports life, and how human activities affect itsability to do so in the futureisone of the greatest intellectual challenges facing humanity.It

is also one of the most important for society as it seeks toachieveprosperity and sustainability.”

NRC (April 2005)



9

Interim Report

• “Today, this system of environmental satellites is at riskof collapse.”

• Since then more delays, descopingand cancellations of missions inNOAA and NASA



10

Trends In EarthObservations Missions

From Space

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Solid Earth

Water Cycle

Ecosystems

Climate

Weather

0

20

40

60

80

10 0

12 0

14 0

2 0 00 2 0 01 2 0 02 2 0 03 2 0 04 2 0 05 2 0 06 2 0 07 2 00 8 2 0 09 2 01 0

Solid Ea rth

Water Cycl

Ecosystem

Climate

Weather

Number of Missions Number of



11

Currently Planned NASA/NOAA

Earth Observing Missions

(excluding ESAS recommendations)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

New figure 3-07: Updated to reflect all known NASA/NOAA changes. Launch dates and design lifetimes as provided on agency

websites. Assumes all missions survive 4 years beyond design lifetime.



12

But the Community did

it!







15

Prioritization

• Societal and scientific need

• Affordability

• Degree of readiness

• Contribution to long-term record

• Establishing and maintaining balance

• Cross-benefiting observations• Leveraging partners



16

OVERARCHING

RECOMMENDATION• The U.S. government, working in

concert with the private sector,

academe, the public, and itsinternational partners, shouldrenew its investment in Earth

observing systems and restore itsleadership in Earth science andapplications.



17

KEY AGENCY RECOMMENDATIONS

(for currently planned observingsystem)

• NOAA-restore key climate,environmental, and weathercapabilities to NPOESS mission

– Total solar irradiation and Earth radiation

– Passive ocean surface vector winds and

sea-surface temperatures– Ozone Monitoring and Profiling Suite

(OMPS)



18



• NOAA, working with NASA, restore capability to

make high-temporal and vertical-resolutionmeasurements of temperature and water vapor on

GOES-R

– Complete GIFTS, orbit via launch of opportunity

and/or – Extend the HES Study focusing on cost-effective

approaches to achieving essential sounding

capabilities in the GOES-R time frame.



19



• NASA-continuity of precipitation and landcover

– Launching GPM by 2012

– Obtaining a replacement to Landsat 7 databefore 2012.

• The committee also recommends that NASAcontinue to seek cost-effective, innovativemeans for obtaining land cover changeinformation.



20

MAIN RECOMMENDATION

(for next decade)

• NOAA and NASA should undertake

a set of 17 recommendedmissions, phased over the nextdecade



21

MAIN RECOMMENDATION

(for next decade)

• NOAA research to operations

– Vector ocean winds (CMIS-LITE plusScatteromenter)

– GPS radio occultation temperature, watervapor and electron density profiles

– Total solar irradiance and Earth Radiation(CERES on NPP also) restored to NPOESS

• NASA

– 15 missions in small, medium and largecategories



22

17 Missions(Red = <$900 M; Green = $300-$600 M; Blue = <$300 M)

Decadal SurveyMission

Mission Description Orbit Instruments Rough CostEstimate

Timeframe 2010 - 2013—Missions listed by cost

CLARREO (NOAAportion)

Solar and Earth radiation characteristics for understanding climate forcing

LEO, SSO Broadband radiometer $65 M

GPSRO High accuracy, all-weather temperature, water vapor,and electron density profiles for weather, climate, andspace weather

LEO GPS receiver $150 M

Timeframe 2013 – 2016

XOVWM Sea surface wind vectors for weather and oceanecosystems

LEO, SSO Backscatter radar $350 M

Decadal SurveyMi i

Mission Description Orbit Instruments Rough CostE ti t



23

Mission Estimate

Timeframe 2010 – 2013, Missions listed by cost

CLARREO(NASA portion)

Solar radiation: spectrally resolved forcing andresponse of the climate system

LEO, Precessing Absolute, spectrally-resolvedinterferometer

$200 M

SMAP Soil moisture and freeze/thaw for weather andwater cycle processes LEO, SSO L-band radar L-band radiometer $300 M

ICESat-II Ice sheet height changes for climate changediagnosis

LEO, Non-SSO Laser altimeter $300 M

DESDynI Surface and ice sheet deformation for understanding natural hazards and climate;vegetation structure for ecosystem health

LEO, SSO L-band InSAR Laser altimeter

$700 M

Timeframe: 2013 – 2016, Missions listed by cost

HyspIRI Land surface composition for agriculture andmineral characterization; vegetation types for ecosystem health

LEO, SSO Hyperspectral spectrometer $300 M

ASCENDS Day/night, all-latitude, all-season CO2

column

integrals for climate emissions

LEO, SSO Multifrequency laser $400 M

SWOT Ocean, lake, and river water levels for ocean andinland water dynamics

LEO, SSO Ku-band radar Ku-band altimeter Microwave radiometer

$450 M

GEO-CAPE Atmospheric gas columns for air qualityforecasts; ocean color for coastal ecosystemhealth and climate emissions

GEO High spatial resolutionhyperspectral spectrometer Low spatial resolution imagingspectrometer IR correlation radiometer

$550 M

ACE Aerosol and cloud profiles for climate and water

cycle; ocean color for open oceanbiogeochemistry

LEO, SSO Backscatter lidar

Multiangle polarimeter Doppler radar

$800 M



24

[1] Cloud-independent, high temporal resolution, lower accuracy SST to complement, not replace, global

operational high-accuracy SST measurement

Timeframe: 2016 -2020, Missions listed by cost

LIST Land surface topography for landslide hazards andwater runoff

LEO, SSO Laser altimeter $300 M

PATH High frequency, all-weather temperature andhumidity soundings for weather forecasting andSSTa

GEO MW array spectrometer $450 M

GRACE-II High temporal resolution gravity fields for trackinglarge-scale water movement

LEO, SSO Microwave or laser rangingsystem

$450 M

SCLP Snow accumulation for fresh water availability LEO, SSO Ku and X-band radars

K and Ka-band radiometers

$500 M

GACM Ozone and related gases for intercontinental air quality and stratospheric ozone layer prediction

LEO, SSO UV spectrometer IR spectrometer Microwave limb sounder

$600 M

3D-Winds(Demo)

Tropospheric winds for weather forecasting andpollution transport

LEO, SSO Doppler lidar $650 M



25

Earth Instruments by Discipline(2000-2020)

0

20

40

60

80100

120

140

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Solid Earth

Water Cycle

Ecosystems

Climate

Weather



26

Earth Missions by Discipline (2000-2020)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Solid Earth

Water Cycle

Ecosystems

Climate

Weather



27

SMAP

Launch 2010-2013

ACELaunch 2013-2016

GPSRO

Launch 2010-2013

3D-Winds

Launch 2020+PATH

Launch 2016-2020

XOVWM

Launch 2013-2016

Societal Challenge: Improved Weather Prediction

Longer-term, more reliable weather forecasts

Threedimensional

tropospheric

wind profiles

Hurricane

wind fieldsSea surfacetemperature

Temperature

and humidity

profilesHigh

resolution

ocean

vector

winds

Pressure/

temperature/

water vapor profiles

Cloud and

aerosol

height

Linkage between

terrestrial water,

energy, and

carbon cycle



28

GPSRO

Launch 2010-2013

3D-Winds

Launch 2020+

PATH

Launch 2016-2020

SWOT

Launch 2013-2016

XOVWM

Launch 2013-2016

Societal Challenge: Improved Extreme Storm Warnings

Longer-term, more reliable storm track forecasts and

intensification predictions to enable effective evacuation

planning

Threedimensional

tropospheric

wind profiles

Hurricane

wind fieldsOcean

eddies andcurrents Sea surface

temperature

Temperature

and humidity

profiles

High resolution

ocean vector

winds

Pressure/

temperature/water vapor

profiles



29

GEO-CAPE

Launch 2013-2016

ACE

Launch 2013-2016

Societal Challenge: Air Quality

More reliable air quality forecasts to enable effective urban

pollution management.

GACM

Launch 2016-2020

Vertical profile

of ozone and

key ozone

precursors

Global aerosol

and air pollutiontransportation and

processes

Cloud and

aerosol

height

Aerosol and

cloud types andproperties

Observation of air

pollution transport inNorth, Central, and

South America

Identification of

human vs. natural

sources for aerosols

and ozone

precursors

3D-Winds

Launch 2020+

Three dimensional

tropospheric wind

profiles



30

Societal Challenge: Energy SecurityImproved energy security through more effective oil and gas

exploration, safer extraction through improved marine forecasts,

optimized placement of wind farms through measurement of global

winds, better energy conservation through improved heating/coolingforecasts, and support of carbon trading and energy policy.

GPSRO

Launch 2010-2013

Pressure/

temperature/water vapor

profiles

HyspIRI

Launch 2013-2016

Spectra to

identifylocations of

natural

resources

SWOT

Launch 2013-2016

Ocean

eddies and

currents

Sea level

measurements

extended intocoastal zones

XOVWMLaunch 2013-2016

High

resolution

ocean vector

winds

PATH

Launch 2016-2020

Sea surface

temperature

Temperature

and humidity

profiles

3D-Winds

Launch 2020+

Three

dimensionaltropospheric

wind profiles

SMAP

Launch 2010-2013

Linkage

between

terrestrial water,

energy, and

carbon cycle

ASCENDS

Launch 2013-2016

CO2 measurements:

Day/night, all

seasons, all

latitudes

Inventory of global

CO2 sources and

sinks





3232

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Year

$Mill io

n

NOAA NESDIS Program: Next Decade

(Decadal Survey Recommended)

Wedge for

Next Decade

Current Missions

Mission Supporting Analysis

Decadal Study Missions

Research to Operations Analysis



33

RECOMMENDATIONS

• Technology development in support of missions– NASA-invest in both mission-focused and

cross-cutting technology development todecrease risk in missions and promote costreduction across multiple missions

– NASA-create new Venture class of low cost

($100-$200M) missions to foster innovationand train future leaders

– NOAA-increase investment in research tooperations



34

RECOMMENDATIONS

• 12 additional recommendationsrelated to turning observations into

information (Chapter 3 of report)



35

RECOMMENDATIONS

• The Office of Science and Technology Policy, in

collaboration with the relevant agencies, and in

consultation with the scientific community, should

develop and implement a plan for achieving and

sustaining global Earth observations. This plan

should recognize the complexity of differing agency

roles, responsibilities, and capabilities as well as

the lessons from implementation of the Landsat,

EOS, and NPOESS programs.



36

PROGRAMMATIC DECISION

STRATEGIES AND RULES Leverage International Efforts

• Restructure or defer missions if international partners

select missions which meet most of the measurementobjectives of recommended missions, then a) establish

data access agreements, and b) establish science teams

• Where appropriate, offer cost-effective additions to

international missions that help extend the values of those missions.



37

PROGRAMMATIC DECISION

STRATEGIES AND RULES • Manage Technology Risk

– Sequence missions according to technological readiness

and budget risk factors… technological investments

should be made across all recommended missions.

– If there are insufficient funds to execute the missions in

the recommended timeframes, it is still important to

make advances on the key technological hurdles.

– Establish technological readiness through documented

technology demonstrations before mission development

phase...





39

Earth Science and Applications fromSpace:

National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond

Prepublication version available now at

htt // d / t l /11820 ht l




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Decadal Study: Priorities for Weather Observations (Susan Avery)

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