December 2002

Section 9

Communicating the Science

Short History of Climate Change Science-Policy

Interaction

An early warning

“Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on long-term projects…based on the assumption that past climate data…are a reliable guide to the future. This is no longer a good assumption…”

UNEP/WMO/ICSU Conference

Villach, Austria 1985

“Humanity is conducting an unintended,

uncontrolled, globally pervasive experiment

whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a global nuclear war.”

World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere:

Toronto, June 1988

UN General Assembly

early resolutions on climate change

•1988 •recognizes climate change as a common concern of mankind •request to WMO and UNEP to establish IPCC

•1989 •supports UNEP proposal to prepare for negotiations of a FCCC•decides to convene UNCED

•1990 -establishes the Intergovernmental

Negotiating Committee for the FCCC

..which eventually led to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC)

Ultimate Objective of the FCCC

“...to achieve...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations...at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system…”

MitigationMitigating climate change by reducinggreenhouse gas emissions

AdaptationAdapting to the changes that are inevitable,

no matter what mitigative action is taken

SciencePromoting the science needed as asound basis for decision making onmitigation and adaptation

UNFCCC identified three key areas of response

Challenges for Climate Change Science-Policy

Interaction

Climate change science is complex science

• Involves many different disciplines• Has benefited from several decades of intensive

research– Globally, several thousand papers currently published

each year, at an annual cost of ~$US 3 billion

• Like a huge jigsaw puzzle having 10s of thousands of pieces

• Requires comprehensive international effort involving experts from all disciplines involved to properly assess

International climate system research is well coordinated and very active

• Coordinated through World Climate Programme– WMO, ICSU, UNEP

– WCRP, WCIP, GCOS etc

• Implemented within national research programs

• Thousands of peer-reviewed papers published each year

• Regular national and international assessments

Traditional Process of Science Advice to Policy

Research Scientists

Policy-Public

However, scientists face important challenges in communicating complex science to others

• The nature of ‘normal’ scientific investigation and debate– based on logic rather than cognitive processes– adversarial, not focused on consensus development– debate primarily within disciplines

• Isolationism– many are “too busy” to talk to non-scientists!– inadequate interdisciplinarity, especially between physical and social

scientists

• Inadequate training in communication skills– dealing with media– addressing misinformation– understanding policy development process

Hence, in order to be policy relevant, need to move beyond ‘normal’ science

• The ‘normal’ science process fails the policy needs when the science is:

– Complex, multi-disciplinary– Uncertain– Of urgent relevance to policy issues

• Rather, need process that – Is inclusive– Undertakes comprehensive assessments of the science across disciplines, focusing on what

we know– Uses expanded peer review to also ensure input of stakeholders– Revisits the issue regularly

POST-NORMAL SCIENCE (as per SAGE report)

The IPCC process for providing science advice is a good example of ‘post-normal’ science

• Use many authors to prepare assessments on a broad range of themes

• Selection of lead author for assessment chapters based on internationally recognized expertise

• Content of each chapter based on published literature, with invited contributions from other experts

• Chapters sent to peer scientists for review, amended, then sent to peer scientists and governments for second review.

• Final content is responsibility of lead authors, and is accepted (not approved) by IPCC as expert contribution

• Consensus summary for policy makers developed and approved collaboratively by IPCC and lead authors

• 2001 WGI report alone involved 1078 experts

SCIENCE TO POLICYIPCC TAR CHAPTER 3

Expert Science

Assessment

Technical Summary

SPM

699 papers

~ 60 pages

10 pages

~3 page

Details

Synthesis

Overview

The Bottom Line

Canadians have played a prominent role in the IPCC assessments

Gov’t Academia Total Canada

Total World

WG I 28 14 42 1057

WG II 34 13 47 859

WG III 12 7 19 ~550

Total 74 34 108 2466

Canadian Involvement in IPCC Third Assessment Report

Cautious

Increasing Confidence

The IPCC has become the principle source of science advice to policy makers on climate system research

1990

1992

1995

1997

2001

First ReportFirst Report

Second ReportSecond Report

Third ReportThird Report

Are the IPCC results credible?

Joint statement by Academies of Science from 17 other countries – May 2001

“The work of the…IPCC represents the consensus of the international science community on climate change science. We recognize IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information…and endorse its method of achieving this consensus.”

US NRC Committee also advised the Whitehouse that the IPCC assessments are very credible

• Full IPCC TAR WGI report is “an admirable summary of research activities in climate science”

• The full report is adequately summarized in the Technical Summary

• The SPM puts stronger emphasis on concerns, less emphasis on uncertainties than full report– all changes were made with consent of

convening lead authors

– most changes had little impact on contents

Robert Watson, Chair of IPCC to CoP6 Delegates, The Hague,

November 2000

“The overwhelming majority of scientific experts, whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced climate change is inevitable. The question is not whether climate will change..but rather how much.. how fast, and where”

Canadian science advice on climate change is undertaken within this international context

Policy-Public

De-jargoned Science Advice

Research scientists

AssessmentAssessment

IPCC National

Communications

In many respects, this is consistent with the principles for the Effective Use of S&T Advice in Canadian Government Decision Making (SAGE)

Principle I: Early issue identificationMaintain strong links with broad science community

Principle II: InclusivenessCapture input from diverse scientific schools of thought and opinion

Principle III: Sound science and science adviceQuality, integrity, objectivityImproved communications

Principle IV: Uncertainty and riskCommunicate uncertainty explicitly and effectivelyEmploy risk management approaches

Principle V: Transparency and opennessPublic access to findings and policy

Principle VI: ReviewEvaluate policies against new science

However, both scientists and policy makers must understand and consider the complex feedbacks between the climate system and society

Socio-Economic Development Paths

•Carbon dioxide•Methane•Nitrous oxide•Aerosols

•Main drivers are population,

energy,economic growth, technology and land use

•Temperature rise•Sea level rise•Precipitation change

•Floods and droughts•Biodiversity•Animal and plant health

Climate SystemHuman &

Natural Systems

Enhanced greenhouse

effect

Non-climate change stresses

Interacti

ons

Air pollu

tion Environmental

impacts

Atmospheric Concentrations

Anthropogenic emissions

Climate change impacts

Feedbacks

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS are useful tools for describing these feedbacks and linkages, and for exploring policy options

• The models seek to simulate the many feedbacks between social behaviour and climate system response in a dynamic, coupled system

• Inputs: Socio, technical and economic data; policies; initial conditions and criteria for avoiding danger due to climate change

• Outputs: climate change, sea level rise, impacts

One useful learning application with an IAM is the SAFE LANDING ANALYSIS

• Select designated danger thresholds for analysis (e.g., dT; dT/dt;dSLR)

• Use maximum rate of emission reductions as another input threshold (%/yr)

• Use model in backcasting mode to identify range of safe emissions in near term that avoid exceeding thresholds in future decades

Example: Limits dT<2C; dT/decade<0.15C;SLR<30 cm; Emission reduction rate<2%/yr

Safe corridor Safe corridor for 1for 1stst decade decade

Globalemissionpath

Safe corridor for Safe corridor for 22ndnd decade decade

Another application is the INTERACTIVE SCENARIO SCANNER (ISS)

• A tool for involving policy makers in developing policy scenarios

• Based on outputs from Integrated Assessment Models

• Allows user to apply alternative assumptions about socio-economic variables, climate sensitivities, and danger thresholds

• A ‘willed future’ approach using Kaya formula factors

Which are:• KAYA formula for fossil fuel emissions:

CO2 Emissions = Population

x GDP per capita (wealth)

x energy/GDP (energy efficiency)

x Carbon/energy (energy type)

•Land use and change for biological emissions

Population growth (%/yr) 2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

- 1.5

-2.0

-2.5

Change energy intensity (%/yr)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Income growth (%/yr) 3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Change CO2/GJ (%/yr) 1.0

0.5

0.0

- 0.5

-1.0

-1.52000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Illustrative willed-future for ISS simulation

Example for Annex I countries

…and resulting implications for risk of danger (using same thresholds as previously used)

CO2 Concentration

Danger

Caution

OK

dT

dT/decade SLR

Some concluding thoughts:

• The evidence for a changing climate is clear• Humans are likely the primary cause for recent

changes • The climate will get MUCH, MUCH warmer• Impacts will provide benefits and adverse effects• We can reduce the risks by mitigation• We MUST learn to adapt as well as mitigate• Good data is critical to the climate change debate

“To survive in the world we

have transformed, we must learn to think in a new way. As never before, the future of each depends on the good of

all.”

100 Nobel LaureatesOslo, December 2001

Some Relevant EC and NRCan websites

• Environment Canada - climate change (general) – www.ec.gc.ca/climate

• NRCan - climate change (general)– http://climatechange.nrcan.gc.ca/

• Science Assessment– www.msc.ec.gc.ca/saib/

• Adaptation– http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca

• Climate Modelling– www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/

• Climate Trends & Attribution– www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/

• Canada Country Study– www.ec.gc.ca/climate/ccs/