2014 Election Updates & Insights

NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and

analysis on candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact

North Carolina’s political landscape.Joe Stewart

Executive Directorjstewart@ncfef.org

(919) 614-0520

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF

2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)

CVB = voters partisan dispositionbased on statewide races 2008 - 2014.

This is the voter party-preferencetopographical map of NC

Suburbs full of ‘swingers’

Other factors: age (esp. Millennials), ethnicity, gender, nativity

2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting BehaviorI-85 Corridor

Past Election Results @ DMA (courtesy of Glen Bolger, POS)

Charlotte (26%)GOP Dem Other52% 43% 4%53% 45% 2%62% 36% 2%58% 40% 2%52% 47% 1%47% 49% 4%

Other (24%)GOP Dem Other51% 44% 4%54% 45% 1%55% 43% 2%57% 41% 2%46% 53% 1%46% 51% 3%

Triangle (32%)GOP Dem Other

2014 Sen: 42% 55% 3% 2012 Pres: 43% 56% 1% 2012 Gov: 46% 51% 3% 2010 Sen: 47% 51% 2% 2008 Pres: 42% 57% 1% 2008 Sen: 39% 58% 3%

Triad (18%)GOP Dem Other53% 43% 4%54% 45% 1%58% 40% 2%60% 38% 2%52% 47% 1%46% 51% 3%

Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance

MECK

WAKE

2012

Obama 60.8%

54.5%

Romney 38.3%

44.2%

2000

Gore 48.2%

46.0%

Bush 51.0%

53.1%

1988

Dukakis 40.2%

42.8%

Bush 59.4%

56.9%

YearNC

Population

Growth

2010 9,535,475

2014 9,943,964 +408,489

MECK WAKE

2010 919,628 900,993

2014 1,012,539 998,691

INCREASE +92,911 +97,698

Political impact of population density 2012 Presidential Election within US

Congressional District

NC Voter Registration Dec 2008 – Aug 2015

DEM GOP LIB UNA0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

-244,919

-64,702

+22,878

+369,630

2008: 6,282,575 2015: 6,365,462

+82,887 Dec 2014: 6,631,398

Counties with at least 1/3 UNA

CURRITUCK

WATAUGA

HENDER

SON

TRANSYLV

ANIADARE

ORANGE

JACKSON

POLK

CAMDEN

BUNCOMBE

ONSLOW

CLAY

NEW H

ANOVER0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

40.07

%

39.65

%

37.96

%

37.27

%

36.08

%

35.51

%

34.69

%

34.68

%

34.61

%

34.15

%

33.95

%

33.59

%

33.25

%

None of the above, or the not DEM or REP vote

2010 – 2,660,079 voted

2002 – 2,331,181 voted

Richard Burr 54.81% Elizabeth H. Dole 53.56%Elaine Marshall 43.05% Erskine B. Bowles 44.96%Michael Beitler 2.09% Sean Haugh 1.45%

Write-in 0.05% Write In 0.03%

2014 – 2,915,281 voted

Thom Tillis 48.82%Kay Hagan 47.26%

Sean Haugh 3.74%Write In 0.18%

50% of NC Registered Voters Live in 13 Counties

MECKLE

NBURGWAKE

GUILFORD

FORSYTH

DURHAM

CUMBERLA

ND

BUNCOMBE

NEW H

ANOVER

UNION

GASTON

CABARRUSPITT

JOHNSTO

N0

100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000

White Black Am Indian Other Hispanic Male Female46.55% 58.07% 18.19% 65.95% 63.73% 49.62% 50.20%

Democrats Republicans Libertarians Unaffiliated51.26% 46.38% 56.78% 52.36%

NC Population Growth Not Even49 NC counties have lost population since

2010(2014 Census Bureau Data)

Party Identification, 1939-2015 (Gallup)

39 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98200

0200

2200

4200

6200

8201

0201

2201

40

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dem % Rep % Indep %

New DealDemocratic Coalition

Realignment Dealignment Coalition Country

Dr. Michael BitzerCatawba College

Estimated NC Voter Reg by Generation

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 422920%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2%4%

8%10%

16%18%

24%26% 27%

22% 23% 25% 25% 26% 26% 25%25% 27%

45% 43%41% 40%

36% 35%33% 32%

33%31%

29%26% 25%

22% 21%18% 17%

13%

Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer SilentDr. Michael BitzerCatawba College

Dr. Michael Bitzer - Catawba College

2015 NCFEFConventional Voting

Behavior(CVB)

NC House Districts

STRONG DEM (34) LEAN DEM (2) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)

29 L. HallDurham

114

FisherBuncombe 54 Reives

Lee118

PresnellYancey

55

BrodyUnion 86 Blackwell

Burke110

HastingsGaston 96 Adams*

Catawba

106

CunninghamMecklenburg 42 Lucas

Cumberland 44 Richardson**Cumberland

49

Pendleton*Wake

14

ClevelandOnslow 82 Pittman

Cabarrus 77 WarrenRowan 69 Arp

Union

102

CarneyMecklenburg 5 Hunter

Hertford COMP (11) 9 Murphy**Pitt

36

DollarWake 15 Shepard

Onslow 98 Bradford*Mecklenburg 13 McElraft

Carteret

31 MichauxDurham 32 Baskerville (NR)

Vance 66 GoodmanRichmond

45

SzokaCumberland

40

AvilaWake

109

BumgardnerGaston 91 Hall**

Stokes 81 Brown (NR)Davidson

33 GillWake 72 Hanes

Forsyth 39 JacksonWake

63

RossAlamance

37

Stam (NR)Wake 26 Daughtry (NR)

Johnston 74 ConradForsyth 87 Robinson

Caldwell

99 MooreMecklenburg

100

CothamMecklenburg 50 Meyer

Orange53

LewisHarnett

62

BlustGuilford 16 Millis

Pender104

Bishop (NR)Mecklenburg 76 Ford

Rowan

38 Lewis HolleyWake 23 Willingham*

Edgecombe 119 QueenHaywood

93

JordanAshe

111

MooreCleveland 83 Johnson

Cabarrus 10 J. BellWayne 95 Fraley

Iredell

60 Brockman*Guilford 47 Graham

Robeson 2 Yarborough*Person 1 Steinburg

Chowan75

LambethForsyth 19 Davis

New Hanover 84 R. TurnerIredell 89 Setzer

Catawba

58 Johnson*Guilford 30 Luebke

Durham 22 Brisson#Bladen

65

JonesRockingham

88

BryanMecklenburg 4 Dixon

Duplin 17 IlerBrunswick 68 Horn

Union

107

AlexanderMecklenburg 43 Floyd

Cumberland 92 JeterMecklenburg 3 Speciale

Craven25

CollinsNash 59 Hardister

Guilford108

TorbettGaston 94 Elmore

Wilkes

56 InskoOrange 21 L. Bell

Sampson 115 Ager*Buncombe

51

Salmon*Harnett

103

BrawleyMecklenburg 61 Faircloth

Guilford105

Schaffer (NR)Mecklenburg 79 Howard

Davie

24Farmer-

ButterfieldWilson

7 RichardsonFranklin 6 Tine (NR)

Dare64

RiddellAlamance 20 Catlin (NR)

New Hanover 52 BolesMoore 97 Saine

Lincoln

48 PierceScotland 18 Hamilton

New Hanover 8 S. MartinWilson

116

B. Turner*Buncombe

112

HagerRutherford

117

McGradyHenderson 85 Dobson

McDowell

71 TerryForsyth 34 G. Martin

Wake 41 Adcock*Wake

35

MaloneWake

113

Whitmire (NR)Transylvania

120

West (NR)Cherokee 73 Zachary*

Yadkin

57 HarrisonGuilford 12 Graham

Lenoir 28 Langdon (NR)Johnston 80 Watford

Davidson

27 WrayNorthampton 11 D. Hall

Wake *freshman#thinking about retiring?NR = not running in 2016

90 StevensSurry 70 Hurley

Randolph

101

EarleMecklenburg 46 Waddell (NR)

Columbus 67 BurrStanly 78 McNeill

Randolph

CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA

2015 NCFEFConventional Voting

Behavior(CVB)

NC Senate Districts

CVB for NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEMSTRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)

28 RobinsonGuilford

21 ClarkHoke

19 MeredithCumberland

8 RabonBrunswick

50 DavisMacon

24 GunnAlamance

39

Rucho (NR)Mecklenburg

40 Waddell*Mecklenburg

5 DavisGreene

1 Cook#Beaufort

9 Lee*New Hanover

46 DanielBurke

47 HiseMitchell

31

KrawiecForsyth

38 FordMecklenburg

13 Smith*Robeson

25 McInnis*Richmond

15 Alexander*Wake

27 WadeGuilford

2 SandersonPamlico

44

CurtisLincoln

14 BlueWake

23 FousheeOrange

18 BarefootWake

10 B. JacksonSampson

11Newton

(NR)Wilson

45 SoucekWatauga

35

TuckerUnion

20 McKissickDurham

22 WoodardDurham

12 RabinHarnett

6 BrownOnslow

48 Apodaca (NR)Henderson

42

Wells*Catawba

4 BryantNash

37 J. JacksonMecklenburg

17 BarringerWake

41 TarteMecklenburg

36 Hartsell#Cabarrus

33

Bingham (NR)Davidson

3Smith-

Ingram*Edgecombe

16 Stein (NR)Wake

26 BergerRockingham

43 HarringtonGaston

30

RandlemanWilkes

32 Lowe*Forsyth

49Van

Duyn*Buncombe

*freshman#thinking about retiring?NR = not running in 2016

7 PateWayne

34 BrockDavie

29

TillmanRandolph

CVB for US CONGRESS 10 REP – 3 DEMSTRONG DEM (3) LEAN REP (3) STRONG REP (7)

12 Adams*Guilford

3 JonesPitt

13 HoldingWake

10 McHenryGaston

1 ButterfieldWilson

8 HudsonCabarrus

2 EllmersHarnett

5 FoxxWatauga

4 PriceOrange

7 Rouzer*Johnston

6 Walker*Guilford

11 MeadowsMacon

*freshmanhotly contested Primary? 9 Pittenger

Mecklenburg

Partisan Composition & CVBNC General Assembly &

Congressional DelegationStrong REP

Lean REP COMP Lean

DEMStrong DEM

NC House74 – 45 – 1 59 14 11 2 34NC Senate

34 – 16 24 6 4 0 16US

Congress10 – 3

7 3 0 0 3

North Carolina 2016 Election Dynamics

President, US Sen, Gov on ballot in ‘battleground’ state = a LOT of political ads (candidates + outside groups) = high turnout?

Turnout: 2000: 59% *2004: 64% *2008: 70% 2012: 68%

Probable election landscape = Urban v. Rural, Suburbs in play

Watch for ‘enthusiasm gap’ = one party’s base party voters dislike their party’s candidate(s) more than the other party’s base voters.

March 15, 2016 Primary (Candidate Filing in December 2015)

Watch for GOP v GOP Primaries (Establishment v Tea Party)

North Carolina 2016 Primary Dynamics

March 15, 2016 Primary Candidate Filing in Dec 1 – 21

$2 Billion Bond Package on Ballot

What’s the voter turnout profile?

To win NC, the Democratic

nomineemust re-create

the Obama coalition from

2008

To win the election, GOP

nominee must win NC

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: President

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: US Senate

Rated among vulnerable GOP incumbents

NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive

2016 = $200+ million in outside spending

Suburbs = battleground

Do Democrats get an A List candidate?

Chris Rey Deborah Ross

Kevin Griffin

Paul Wright

Larry Holmquist

SenatorDan Blue

SenatorJoel Ford

Sen Richard

Burr

NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive

Suburbs = battleground

2016 = $100+ million in outside spending

Likely to get ugly quick

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor

Cooper

Victory

Strong US Senate

Candidate

Presidential

Candidate Fights for

NC Functioning NC Dem

Party

McCrory

Victory

Voters Positive on

NC Economy

Parity in Outside $ Enthusias

m for Presidenta

l Candidate

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Exec BranchGoverno

rRoy Cooper ($3M)

Ken Spaulding ($50K)Pat McCrory 56.62%

($2.4M)Lt.

Governor

Linda Coleman ($48K)Holly Jones Robert Wilson

($6K)Dan Forest 50.08%

($247K)Attorney General(OPEN)

Sen. Josh Stein ($1.1M)Tim Dunn

Sen. Buck Newton ($200K)Jim O’Neill ($94K)

Comm of Insuranc

eW. Goodwin 51.9%

($360K)Heather Grant ($700)

Mike CauseyState

AuditorBeth Wood 53.71%

($27K)Secretar

y of State

Elaine Marshall 53.79% ($35K) AJ Doud

Comm of Labor Charles Meeker ($15K) Cherie Berry 53.26%

($15K)Comm of

Ag Walter Smith Steve Troxler 53.22% ($7K)

Super of Public

Instruct

June Atkinson 54.24% ($9K)

Henry PankeyMark Johnson ($105K)

Rosemary Stein

State Treasurer (OPEN)

Michael WeiselRon Elmer

Edgar Starnes Dale FolwellMike Walden Joe McLaughin

% =

201

2 re

sults

($) =

cas

h on

han

d as

of J

une

30, 2

015

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: State Supreme Court

Voters will cast their ballot as

to whether or not to

retain Justice

Robert H. Edmunds(Guilford)

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Court of Appeals

Linda H. Stephens(Wake County)

1st TermDemocrat

Robert H. Hunter(Guilford County)

1st Term (appointed 2015)

Republican

Richard Dietz(Forsyth County)

1st Term (appointed 2014)

Republican

Vince RozierWake County

Democrat

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch

Economy v. ISIS

How bad a candidate is Hillary Clinton?

Who is the GOP candidate?

Is there a 3rd party candidate?

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch

Voter attitude (NC more ‘national’)

Party In-fighting

Outside money

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch

Which candidates cut through the clutter and chaos

Bottom line: winner reaches Suburban Swingers

2014 Election Updates & Insights

Questions?

Joe StewartExecutive Directorjstewart@ncfef.org

(919) 614-0520

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF