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Decision Commodities, LLC614 Billy Sunday Rd., Suite 600Ames, Iowa 50010515.956.7880
www.decisioncommodities.com
MARKET BASED RISK MANAGEMENT FOR AGRICULTURE
September 2007Iowa State University
Regis Lefaucheur
New Generation Grain ContractsDecision Contracts
2
Decision Commodities
• Based in Ames, IA
• Provides innovative forward contracts to grain producers to help them take the emotion, stress and guesswork out of grain pricing
• Customer base: Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Missouri
• Decision Contracts enable producers to put discipline into grain marketing
3
Decision Commodities
• What does Decision Commodities do?– Take the EMOTION out of selling– Take the GUESSWORK out of selling
– Consistently outguessing or outperforming the market is impossible.
4
“ forward contracts are always terrible ways to market…20% of the time I sold too soon, and 80% of the time I didn’t
market enough…”
What are producers saying?
“ I only sell grain when prices are in the top third of the market…”
5
Grain Industry Vocabulary
• Definitions:
– Futures price
– Basis
– Cash Price
– Spread
• Relationships
September 17, 2007 Corn Basis
6
Producer Hedging
Price Decrease Scenario
Futures
01 Feb 2007 $3.50 Sell @ $3.50
Harvest Lower $3.10 Buy @ $3.10
-$0.40 +$0.40
Price Increase Scenario Futures
01 Feb 2007 $3.50 Sell @ $3.50
Harvest Higher $3.90 Buy @ $3.90
+$0.40 -$0.40
Producer Goal: Lock in an attractive price (higher is better) – Protection against lower prices
7
Elevator Hedging
Price Decrease Scenario
Futures
Harvest $3.20 Sell @ $3.20
January 15 sale Lower $3.00 Buy @ $3.00
-$0.20 +$0.20
Price Increase Scenario Futures
Harvest $3.20 Sell @ $3.20
January 15 Sale Higher $3.40 Buy @ $3.40
+$0.20 -$0.20
Elevator Goal: Lock in the price of the grain he bought to protect his margins (storage, drying, basis, hedging)
8
End User: feed mill, ethanol
Price Decrease Scenario
Futures
01 Feb 2007 $3.40 Buy @ $3.40
Harvest Lower $3.10 Sell @ $3.10
+$0.30 -$0.30
Price Increase Scenario Futures
01 Feb 2007 $3.40 Buy @ $3.40
Harvest Higher $3.60 Sell @ $3.60
-$0.20 +$0.20
End User Goal: Lock in an attractive price (lower is better) – Protection against higher prices
9
Decision Contracts
Risk Management Continuum
Put Option Contract
Futures Contract Call Option Contract
Farmers
Price Sensitive
Elevator
Margin DependentEnd-User
Price Sensitive
Insurance against low prices
Insurance against high prices
10
Relationship Between Futures, Basis And Cash Price
Futures Price- Basis
= Cash Price(paid to the producer)
$3.5225 (Dec 2007)- $0.48
= $3.0425
See:
http://www.hoic.com/grain/bids.asp
11
Example
12
BASIS
What is BASIS?
Chicago Board of Trade - Corn Futures Price = $3.50
Processor Bid - $3.25
Warehouse Bid - $3.20
Producer Bid - $3.10
BASIS = “0.25 under”
BASIS = “0.30 under”
BASIS = “0.40 under”
How can a user increase or decrease the movement of grain locally if they can’t change the price on the
Chicago Board of Trade?
13
BASIS
Ethanol
River
Processing
What factors contribute to determining the BASIS?
Feed
Processing
Processing
14
BASIS
Feed
Export
Export
Ethanol
Industrial
• What impact does a BASIS change in one area have on other areas?• Which markets have the greatest influence on basis, spreads and the futures
market?
Poultry
Dairy
What factors contribute to determining the BASIS?
15
SPREAD
July Sept Spread = + $ 0.04
+ / Carry
Spread = price difference between various futures reference months
The Spread can be Carry or Inverted
Dec July Spread= - $ 2.79
- / Inverted
CBOT WHEAT
16
STORE or SELL ?
Basis
Spread
Futures price
Narrow
Inverted
High
SELL
Wide
Carry
Low
STORE
Result:
Decrease in the movement of grain
Result:
Increase in the movement of grain
What decision should a producer make?
17
EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS
RANDOMNESS
18
Efficient Market Hypothesis
• According to Fama, an efficient market is one that accurately incorporates all known information in determining price. This is know as the efficient market hypothesis.
• Although there is considerable disagreement about the degree to which EMH holds, it has become the dominant paradigm used by economists to understand and investigate the behavior of financial and commodity markets.
• Markets for commodities and products that are widely traded in agriculture and the food industry are a model of efficiency. The compile all the information and knowledge of traders, businesses and producers, and express this data in the form of a price.
19
Efficient Market Hypothesis
• The daily pricing process in the market is usually referred to as a random walk. A commonly used analogy of a random walk is the flipping of a fair coin. Overtime, the expected change is price is zero.
• The market is all-knowing. Consistently outguessing or outperforming it is very difficult (if not impossible)
20
Randomness
• What does randomness looks like?
21
Randomness and Unpredictability
RandomnessCBOT Corn December
Futures 2007
It is easy to see patterns in random events
22
SOYBEAN – Up/Down days
Number of trading days up/downNov 01 to Oct 31 1997-2007 NOV Soybean CBOT
1 314 8 8 14 13
22
48 54
102
149
252
293
328313
267249
149
103
5742
2614 14 8 9 17
30
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
($0.
50)
($0.
35)
($0.
25)
($0.
22)
($0.
20)
($0.
18)
($0.
16)
($0.
14)
($0.
12)
($0.
10)
($0.
08)
($0.
06)
($0.
04)
($0.
02)
$0.0
0$0
.02
$0.0
4$0
.06
$0.0
8$0
.10
$0.1
2$0
.14
$0.1
6$0
.18
$0.2
0$0
.22
$0.2
5$0
.35
$0.5
0
Decision Commodities LLC
23
SOYBEAN – Up/Down days
By year (days)
Up Down Total
1997 126 126 252
1998 123 127 250
1999 114 136 250
2000 123 127 250
2001 119 129 248
2002 134 115 249
2003 145 104 249
2004 126 123 249
2005 131 119 250
2006 128 123 251
SOYBEAN TOTALS 1997-2006
Average of up/down $0.00
Standard deviation $0.08
Minimum $-0.49
Maximum $0.50
Total Days 2581
Up Days 1315
Down Days 1266
Nov 01 to Oct 31 - 1997-2007 - NOV Soybean CBOT
24
Randomness and Unpredictability
• Another way to view markets is that while prices can’t be predicted, prices aren’t all that random either.
• While we can’t guarantee that the “pattern” depicted below will be repeated in the future, this 25 year frequency histogram tends to suggest that there is some central tendency around $2.15 to $2.95 range.
Frequency of Closing Prices in CBOT December Corn 1979-2004
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
$1.6
0
$1.7
5
$1.9
0
$2.0
5
$2.2
0
$2.3
5
$2.5
0
$2.6
5
$2.8
0
$2.9
5
$3.1
0
$3.2
5
$3.4
0
$3.5
5
$3.7
0
$3.8
5
$4.0
0
25
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND EMOTIONS
26
Behavioral Finance and Emotions
2004 December Corn Futures
06-2003 to 09-2004
27
Behavioral Finance
• Regret: Regret management is probably a more accurate term for risk management.There is a very natural tendency to avoid regret. In grain marketing, this is often embodied into a decision not to decide. Regret is the more powerful behavioral issue. Obviously, regret can significantly impair our ability to make rational choices.
• Risk aversion: Most people are risk averse and seek to avoid risk. However, there tends to be identifiable biases in human behavior that lead to irrational decision making. One of these biases is the tendency to accept increases risk over a guaranteed loss. It reflects a tendency to underestimate the chances of “extreme” market situation occurring.
In grain marketing, this tendency leads some to accept price risk rather than pay for insurance – such as a put option purchase or guaranteed minimum price contract. Why don’t producers want to pay 5 cents to protect 50 cents?
28
Long Term Corn Prices
2007 December Corn Futures
07-2006 to 09-2007
Reference price anchoring: It is the tendency for a person to “fix” a specific figure in their mind as the perceived value.
– An example of driving with eyes fixed on the rear view mirror is establishing a target price based on last year’s market price. “Bull” or “bear” forecasts coming from newsletters, magazines, market advisors, radio shows…
– Reality takes a long time to soak in, and when it does, it is usually too late as opportunities are long gone.
29
Behavioral Finance
• Escalation: too much invested to quit.
A situation where a person enters a transaction hoping for a favorable outcome but after circumstances change to unfavorable, the person finds it difficult to escape or even adds to it.
• Endowment: Associated with the fear of giving up something.
It is more painful to give up an asset than it is pleasurable to obtain. Ownership as a positive feeling. Producers have a tendency to store grain beyond economic justification, because when it is sold, there is no opportunity to gain anymore. For grain under storage, the perceived value increases with the duration of ownership.
30
Behavioral Finance
• Which one of the following would you choose?– A. Winning a guaranteed $3,000– B. Taking an 80% chance of winning $4,000
• Now consider this option– A. Lose $3,000– B. Take an 80% chance of losing $4,000
31
Behavioral Finance
Results:• You are not alone if you said you would take the $3,000 but
roll the dice and risk losing the $4,000• As human being, we don’t deal with losses the same way we
do with gains• We will ride a loss to the bitter end while cutting a gain short
• Contributing to this mindset is a condition known as the Gambler’s fallacy, which is the belief that a successful outcome is due after a run of back luck. But chance – or the randomness of an efficient market – is not self-correcting.
Flipping 10 consecutive heads does not increase the chance that the eleventh toss will yield a tails, any more than a trend of lower grain prices ensures an up- or downswing in tomorrow’s market.
32
33
Agricultural Market Advisory Services
• AGMAS– Agmas study (U of I Urbana): provide a neutral
evaluation of the performance of market advisory services for corn, soybean and wheat.
– Tracking about 25-35 advisory programs per year since 1994
– Paid subscriptions obtained for each services– Recommendations recorded in “real-time”– Two important issues:
. Market advisory service performance relative to appropriate benchmarks. Predictability of market advisory service from year-to-year
– Result data available for the period 1995-2003
34
Agricultural Market Advisory Services
• Benchmarks:
– average of two-year marketing window (24 months) : price offered by the market
– USDA producer average : an “indicator” of marketing performance of farmers
35
Performance relative to Benchmark
Performance of Market Advisory Services Corn - Average of 1997-2003
$1.85$1.99$1.99
$2.02$2.07
$2.09$2.09$2.10$2.11
$2.13$2.14
$2.16$2.16$2.16
$2.17$2.18
$2.19$2.19$2.20
$2.21$2.22
$2.27$2.27
$2.28$2.30
$1.70 $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 $2.30 $2.40 $2.50
Ag Financial StrategiesPro Farmer (hedge)
Pro Farmer (cash only)Steward-Peterson Advisory Reports
Freese-NotisAllendale (futures & options)
Northstar CommodityCo-Mark
Risk Mgmt Group (options only)Risk Mgmt Group (cash only)
Risk Mgmt Group (futures & options)Brock (cash only)
Top Farmer IntelligenceAgriVisor (basic hedge)
AgriVisor (aggressive hedge)AgLine by Doane (cash only)
AgriVisor (basic cash)Progressive Ag
AgLine by Doane (hedge)Allendale (futures only)
AgriVisor (aggressive cash)Ag Review
Brock (hedge)Utterback Marketing Services
AgResource
24 Month Average: $2.15
USDA Producer Average: $2.05
36
Predictability from year-to-year
Ranking of Market Advisory Services - Corn
Rank 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 AgResource AgResource Progressive Ag Brock (hedge) AgResource
2 Allendale (futures only) Utterback Marketing Services Top Farmer Intelligence Brock (cash only) Progressive Ag
3 AgLine by Doane (hedge) Top Farmer Intelligence Ag Review Ag Review AgLine by Doane (cash only)
4 AgriVisor (aggressive cash) Brock (hedge) Utterback Marketing Services Risk Mgmt Group (futures & options) AgLine by Doane (hedge)
5 Ag Review AgLine by Doane (hedge) Co-Mark AgriVisor (basic hedge) Ag Review
6 Top Farmer Intelligence AgriVisor (aggressive cash) Steward-Peterson Advisory Reports AgriVisor (aggressive hedge) Freese-Notis
7 AgriVisor (basic cash) AgriVisor (aggressive hedge) Risk Mgmt Group (cash only) AgriVisor (basic cash) Northstar Commodity
8 Risk Mgmt Group (cash only) AgriVisor (basic cash) Allendale (futures only) AgriVisor (aggressive cash) Brock (cash only)
9 Allendale (futures & options) AgriVisor (basic hedge) Risk Mgmt Group (options only) AgResource AgriVisor (basic hedge)
10 Brock (cash only) Risk Mgmt Group (cash only) Risk Mgmt Group (futures & options) Progressive Ag AgriVisor (aggressive hedge)
11 Utterback Marketing Services Risk Mgmt Group (futures & options) Allendale (futures & options) Risk Mgmt Group (options only) AgriVisor (basic cash)
12 AgLine by Doane (cash only) AgLine by Doane (cash only) AgriVisor (aggressive cash) Risk Mgmt Group (cash only) AgriVisor (aggressive cash)
13 AgriVisor (basic hedge) Allendale (futures only) AgriVisor (aggressive hedge) Freese-Notis Brock (hedge)
14 Brock (hedge) Risk Mgmt Group (options only) AgLine by Doane (cash only) Co-Mark Allendale (futures & options)
15 AgriVisor (aggressive hedge) Progressive Ag AgLine by Doane (hedge) Steward-Peterson Advisory Reports Co-Mark
16 Risk Mgmt Group (options only) Freese-Notis AgriVisor (basic cash) Utterback Marketing Services Risk Mgmt Group (futures & options)
17 Risk Mgmt Group (futures & options) Co-Mark Pro Farmer (cash only) AgLine by Doane (hedge) Risk Mgmt Group (options only)
18 Progressive Ag Ag Review Northstar Commodity Northstar Commodity Steward-Peterson Advisory Reports
19 Steward-Peterson Advisory Reports Brock (cash only) AgriVisor (basic hedge) AgLine by Doane (cash only) Allendale (futures only)
20 Freese-Notis Allendale (futures & options) Pro Farmer (hedge) Top Farmer Intelligence Pro Farmer (cash only)
21 Pro Farmer (hedge) Pro Farmer (cash only) Brock (cash only) Allendale (futures only) Risk Mgmt Group (cash only)
22 Pro Farmer (cash only) Pro Farmer (hedge) Brock (hedge) Pro Farmer (cash only) Top Farmer Intelligence
23 Steward-Peterson Advisory Reports Freese-Notis Allendale (futures & options) Pro Farmer (hedge)
24 Ag Financial Strategies Pro Farmer (hedge) Utterback Marketing Services
25 AgResource Ag Financial Strategies Ag Financial Strategies
Agmas Study released on 03/2005
37
Agricultural Market Advisory Services
• Limited evidence that advisory services outperform market benchmarks, particularly after taking risk into account
• Substantial evidence that advisory services outperform farmer benchmarks, even after taking risk into account
• Little evidence that past performance can be used to predict future performance
38
Decision Contracts
Farmers continue to identify price and income risk as their
greatest management challenge
39
December Corn CBOT Prices 1998 - 2006
$1.70$1.80$1.90$2.00$2.10$2.20$2.30$2.40$2.50$2.60$2.70$2.80$2.90$3.00$3.10$3.20$3.30$3.40$3.50$3.60$3.70$3.80$3.90$4.00$4.10$4.20$4.30$4.40$4.50
19
98
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
99
19
99
20
00
20
00
20
00
20
01
20
01
20
01
20
02
20
02
20
02
20
03
20
03
20
03
20
04
20
04
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
06
20
07
20
07
Decision Commodities LLCLast Update: September17, 2006
Setting goals
Price series for CZ contract :Average Price = $2.50
Upper Third = $ 2.51 and above Lower Third = $ 2.31 and below
Average
Price
Lower Third
Upper Third
40
Daily Average Corn Prices – 1998-2005
– Based on December Corn (CZ)– In the last 23 years for corn:
• Marketing at harvest was high price point = 4 years (93, 95, 02, 06)• High price point was spring/summer = 7 years (84, 87, 88, 90, 94, 96,04)• High price point was before spring = 12 years (85,86,89,92,94,97,98,99,00,01,03,05)
December CBOT Corn Average Prices 1997-2006(Jan 01 to November 30 - 23 months)
$2.15
$2.20
$2.25
$2.30
$2.35
$2.40
$2.45
$2.50
$2.55
$2.60
$2.65
$2.70
$2.75
$2.80
Ja
n
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
p
Oc
t
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
p
Oc
t
No
v
PL
AN
TIN
G HA
RV
ES
T
127
4
83%
17%
Decision Commodities LLC
41
Corn - High Low Average Historical Prices
DEC Corn Historical Price ranges(Full length of contract)
$3.37
$3.84
$2.73
$2.93
$2.69
$3.37
$4.29
$2.29
$2.00
$1.87
$2.11
$1.86
$2.47
$2.60
$4.28
$3.77
$2.87$2.83
$3.08 $2.99$2.91
$1.93
$2.36
$2.04
$1.99
$2.38$2.39
$1.88
$1.80
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
$2.60
$2.80
$3.00
$3.20
$3.40
$3.60
$3.80
$4.00
$4.20
$4.40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
High Top third Average
Bottom third Low
Decision Commodities LLCLast Update: July 27, 2007
42
Decision Contracts
• Decision Commodities automated pricing models :
– Index
– Rally
– Accelerator
– Topper
43
Decision Contracts
• ...a tool that delivers execution discipline without major time requirements– Example
• You want to pre-harvest market 20,000 bushels of corn for Fall delivery, starting in January.
• The Index pricing model can, for example, price an even increment of bushels every day between January and September, achieving an average price for that time period.
• Assuming 100 (market) days between January and September, 200 bushels will be priced every day at the price of the underlying futures contract.
• You sign a forward contract with local grain elevator (specifying Decision Contracts as pricing mechanism), and deliver grain in same manner as usual.
44
Decision Contracts
ProducerGrain Elevator
Ethanol PlantCash Contract
Basis Forward futures price
Decision Contracts provides pricing mechanism for the futures price
45
Decision Contracts – “Index” Pricing Model
Index: Average Price Contract
• Prices an even increment of bushels each day for a given pricing period.
• Producer settings:– Pricing period beginning
– Pricing Period end– Delivery Period– Bushels
The Index price model will result in the average price for the specified time pricing period.
2007 Soybeans
Example:
10,000 bu100 days
100 bu would be priced each day
46
Day
$2.27
$2.28
$2.29
$2.30
$2.31
$2.32
$2.33
$2.34
$2.35
$2.36
1 2 3 4 5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Bu
she
ls
Decision Contracts – “Rally” Pricing Model
Rally:
Bushels price on days during the pricing period when:1) the day’s closing price is above the floor price and 2) the one day price change is less than the sensitivity level.
If UpPoint = 0 pricing occurs when price goes down.
Bushels price if one day price change less than UpPoint
Bushels to Price = Remaining Bu X Throttle Remaining Days
Producer Settings:– Pricing period beginning– Pricing period end– Bushels– Price Floor– UpPoint
– Throttle
Floor
47
Rally Example
10,000 bu = 100 X 5 (Throttle) = 500 bu 100 days
500 bu on the first day
48
Decision Contracts – “Accelerator” Pricing Model
Accelerator:
• The daily amount of bushels priced “accelerates” as the futures prices increase, and vice versa
• Bushels price on days during the pricing period when:1) the day’s closing price is above the floor price 2) pricing factor increases (decreases) as futures prices go up (or go down)
• Producer Settings:– Pricing period beginning– Pricing period end– Bushels– Floor and Pivot
Bu priced = (remaining bushels) X Throttleremaining days
49
Decision Contracts – “Accelerator” Pricing Model
– Throttle acts as a multiplier of daily bushels priced
December Corn Range (CZ)
Min Max Throttle
$4.10 > 10 Very Aggressive
$4.00 $4.10 4 Aggressive
$3.90 $4.00 3 Moderate
$3.80 $3.90 1 Slow
0 50 100 150 200
Daily bushels priced
PF = 1
PF = 4
PF =6
PF =10Floor
Pivot
50
Decision Contracts – “Accelerator” Pricing Model
December Corn 2003
Accelerator (red) = $2.41
Bu priced = 90.37 %
Floor price (purple) = $2.30
Daily bushels sold increase when
futures prices move into upper ranges,
and vice versa
51
Decision Contracts – “Topper” Pricing Model
• Topper:– Bushels will price on
days when grain prices close up sharply from the previous day, during the pricing period.
Producer Settings:– Pricing period beginning– Pricing period end– Bushels– Price Floor– Trigger
– Throttle
Number of trading days up/downDec 01 to Nov 30 - 1998-2005 - DEC Corn CBOT
0 014 5 8 10
26 34
81 86
242
407
256
198
75 66
23 20 15 14 5 8 2
188
218
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
($0.
20)
($0.
15)
($0.
10)
($0.
09)
($0.
08)
($0.
07)
($0.
06)
($0.
05)
($0.
04)
($0.
03)
($0.
02)
($0.
01)
$0.0
0
$0.0
1
$0.0
2
$0.0
3
$0.0
4
$0.0
5
$0.0
6
$0.0
7
$0.0
8
$0.0
9
$0.1
0
$0.1
5
$0.2
0
Decision Commodities LLC
52
Rally Results – CBOT CZ07 – Jan 01 to July 15
RALLY - $3.88 - 100% pricedCZ07 - Jan 01 to July 15
Rally, $3.88
Floor, $3.50
$3.00
$3.20
$3.40
$3.60
$3.80
$4.00
$4.20
$4.40
Jan
-03
Jan
-12
Jan
-24
Fe
b-0
2
Fe
b-1
3
Fe
b-2
3
Mar
-06
Mar
-15
Mar
-26
Ap
r-0
4
Ap
r-1
6
Ap
r-2
5
May
-04
May
-15
May
-24
Jun
-05
Jun
-14
Jun
-25
Jul-0
5
Jul-1
6
Pric
e $
-
50
100
150
200
250
Bu
she
ls P
rice
d
Bu priced 2007
Rally Floor
CZ07 Rally - Floor: $3.50 - UpPoint: $0.00 - Throttle: 3 Decision Commodities LLC
53
Topper Results – CBOT CZ07 – Jan 01 to July 15
TOPPER - $3.92 - 100% pricedCZ07 - Jan 01 to July 15
Topper, $3.92
Floor, $3.50
$3.00
$3.20
$3.40
$3.60
$3.80
$4.00
$4.20
$4.40
Jan
-03
Jan
-12
Jan
-24
Fe
b-0
2
Fe
b-1
3
Fe
b-2
3
Mar
-06
Mar
-15
Mar
-26
Ap
r-0
4
Ap
r-1
6
Ap
r-2
5
May
-04
May
-15
May
-24
Jun
-05
Jun
-14
Jun
-25
Jul-0
5
Jul-1
6
Pric
e $
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Bu
she
ls P
rice
d
Bu priced 2007
Topper Floor
CZ07 Topper - Floor: $3.50 - Trigger: $0.05 - Throttle: 7 Decision Commodities LLC
54
Rally Topper Results – CZ08
• Rally:• CZ08 – Jan 07 to July 08• Floor: $3.50 – Throttle: 2 – UpPoint: $0.00• $3.89 – 42% Priced
• Topper:• CZ08 – Jan 07 to July 08• Floor: $3.50 – Throttle: 7 – Trigger: $0.05• $3.96 – 40% Priced
$3.20
$3.40
$3.60
$3.80
$4.00
$4.20
$4.40
Jan
-03
Feb
-03
Mar
-03
Ap
r-03
May
-03
Jun
-03
Jul-
03
Au
g-0
3
Sep
-03
2008
55
Thank you.
Decision Commodities, LLC614 Billy Sunday Rd., Suite 600Ames, Iowa 50010515.956.7880
www.decisioncommodities.com