DECISION MAKINGDECISION MAKING

Chapter 10

Groups Decision Making

None of us alone is as smart as all of us together (Myers, 2002)

more people = more information more people to do more work more people means people can do what they

are best at

groups can discuss, process information (check for errors, etc.)

groups have standards for deciding (e.g., majority rules)

people are more likely to follow through if part of a group that decided

is not caused by any one mechanism, but by several processes

Groups Decision Making

Why make decisions in Groups?

The effectiveness of groups as decision makers Examples: investment groups, advisory boards,

planners Individual vs. group decision making

– Majorie E. Shaw’s (1932) study of groups vs. individuals

– Individuals solved fewer problems than groups

Type of Decisions

Group effectiveness also depends has a demonstrated correct solution

Intellective Tasks (right or wrong answer – e.g., math problems ) vs. Judgmental Tasks (no correct answer – jury’s verdict)

Group members are superior in intellective tasks than judgment tasks.

Anatomy of Group Decision

Functional Theory of Group Decision Making- Skilled decision making groups are more likely use procedures that enhance the way they gather, analyze, and weight information

Phases of Decision Making - Orientation

- Discussion - Decision - Implementation

Functional Model of Decision Making

Discussion

Orientation

Implementation

Decision Reached

Decision No Decision Reached

OrientationPlanning the Process

Defining theProblem

Orientation Development of shared mental model Group defines the problem Sets strategy & goals More time spent in this stage the

greater the performance

Discussion

Remembering Information

ExchangingInformation

Processing Information

Remembering Information – 30 % of all comments made by group members are expressions of opinions and analysis of issues Collective Memory – a group’s combined

memory Cross-cueing – recall of memories improved

through group members’ statements Transactive Memory – information is distributed

to various members of the group

Discussion

Remembering Information

ExchangingInformation

Processing Information

Weakness in group memory - importance of keeping records (meeting minutes)

Exchanging information: Acquiring & sharing data

Processing information: Collective review of info.

Deciding

Social Decision Schemes – strategy used to select a single alternative from various alternatives proposed by the group

Delegation - an individual or subgroup within the group makes the decision for the group

Statistical Aggregation – group members’

individual decision are averaged

Deciding

Social Decision Schemes Voting – publicly or secret ballot – 50% rule

is used primarily, however, sometimes more substantial percentages are needed for a decision to become final

Consensus (discussion to unanimity) Random Choice – final decision is left to

chance

Implementation Evaluating the decision Adhering to the decision: Coch and French’s

(1948) clothing mill study Participation is key in decision making – if

limited, hostility, turnover, & satisfaction decreases

Implementation

Bringing closure and learning lessons to bring to future decisions Gather group together Review decisions made and decision making

process Look for lessons learned Record them

Post-Mortem Discussions

Vroom’s Normative Model of Decision Making: theory of decision making that predicts the effectiveness of decisional procedures across a number of group settings

Autocratic I & II – leader solves the problem on his/her own with information available at the time or obtains information from group members and then decides

Consultative I & II – leader either shares the problem with selected group members or the entire group

Individual vs. Group Decision Making

Vroom’s Normative Model of Decision Making: Group – the leader discusses the problem with

the members of the group. Together the leader and members devise options for a solution.

The leader acts as a chairperson of a committee & does not try to influence the group to adopt a certain a certain solution.

Procedure must fit the problem to be solved and the decision to be made

Individual vs. Group Decision Making

Group Discussion Pitfalls

Group discussion pitfalls Information processing limitations: leveling,

assimilation, sharpening Poor communication skills Decisional avoidance (procrastination,

bolstering, avoiding responsibility, ignoring alternatives, satisficing)

Is the tendency for groups to spend more time discussing information that all members know and less time examining information that only a few members now Oversampling shared information leads to poorer

decisions when a hidden profile would be revealed by considering the unshared information more closely.

Factors that increase (leadership style) and decrease (using a Group Decision Support System) the bias

Judgment errors and heuristic biases Sins of omission and commission Sins of imprecision: Heuristics

Shared Information Bias

Judgment errors and heuristic biases – individual’s judgments are often distorted by cognitive and motivational biases

Individuals also overestimate their judgmental accuracy because they remember all of the times their decisions were confirmed Sins of omission – overlook useful information Sins of commission – information misused Heuristics – mental rules of thumb Sins of imprecision – oversimplify decision Confirmation Bias – tendency to seek out information that

confirms one’s inferences rather than disconfirms them

Cognitive Limitations

Group Polarization

Group Polarization – the tendency to respond in a more extreme way when making a choice as part of a group, as opposed to when responding individually Social comparison theory Persuasive-arguments theory “Risk-supported wins” social decision scheme

Group Polarization: A shift in the direction of greater extremity in individuals' responses

Polarization and Risk

What is Groupthink?

Janis’s theory of groupthink – a distorted style of thinking that renders group members incapable of making rational decisions.

Members try very hard to agree with one another that they make mistakes that could easily be avoided Example: Kennedy’s advisory group planning

the Bay of Pigs “covert op” The theory identifies symptoms, causes, and

possible cures

Symptoms of Groupthink

Overestimation of the group (illusions of invulnerability, illusions of morality)

Close-mindedness (rationalizations, stereotypes about the outgroup)

Pressures toward uniformity (self-censorship, the illusion of unanimity, direct pressure on dissenters, self-appointed mindguards). Pluralistic ignorance and the Abilene Paradox

(Harvey, 1988) Entrapment and sunk costs

Defective decision-making processes

Cau

ses

Causes of Groupthink Cohesiveness

Cordial relationships Lack of conflict

Structural Faults Insulation Control of the leader

Provocative Situational Context How members deal with stress Exaggerate the positive and minimize the

negative

Can Groupthink Be Prevented?

Limiting premature seeking of concurrence Open style of leadership Devil’s advocate, subgroup discussions

Correcting misperceptions and biases

Using effective decision-making techniques