Decision Making in a Crisis or Emergency

Deborah Higgins, MBCIHead of Learning and Development, BCI

Jim Burtles, Hon FBCIGlobal Membership Council, BCI

November 2013

Decisions In Crises or Emergencies

The model

November 2013

Introducing

Acknowledgement

• This model was inspired by, and is derived from the

National Decision Model–Approved, and used, by the Association

of Chief Police Officers (ACPO)• Developed by the ACPO Ethics Portfolio and the

National Risk Coordination Group as a logical and evidence-based approach to making critical policing decisions

Question

Why did we think this might prove to be useful in a

Business Continuity context?

In a Crisis or Emergency

• Important Decisions must be made – Rapidly– Under pressure– Amidst confusion– In strange circumstances

• These Decisions will – Have serious consequences– Come under scrutiny

Therefore

• A structured approach should be adopted– Preferably one that has been:

• Well established• Properly documented• Thoroughly practised• Demonstrated to be viable

• A standard protocol is required– A practical procedure which can be easily

taught and regularly exercised

Advantages

• Following a ‘standard’ protocol– Aligns various aspects and interests– Continuous improvement through practice– Demonstrates good practice– Ensures best results– Eliminates guesswork– Meets the expectations of regulators,

auditors and investigators

• We already have a structured approach in the form of our BCMLifecycle

(GPG 2013)

An effective process for prudent decision making at the strategic level under crisis conditions

DICE forDecisionsIn CrisisA Logical

Reiterative Process

? Values

? ?

?

?

Values

V I S P O A

Mnemonic

Consider: - ActionsOptions

PowersStrategy

Information

Values and Information lead to Strategy Powers and Options lead to Actions

Remember: -

The next slide is an animated view of the process in action

Click to Reveal the Model Process

A model process for prudent decision making at strategic level during a crisis situation

DICE forDecisionsIn Crisis

Incident Management

Team? Values? ?

?

?

?

The following slides provide an overview of the various modes and stages of the

D I C E process

Planning Mode Pre-event developmentResponse Mode Part of the BCPDecision Mode Strategic leadership

• Introducing the term ‘Mission and Value Statement’ and the optional acronym ‘MVS’

The Process in Action

Values1. AIMS & IDEALS• Develop and Agree

− A Mission and Value Statement (MVS)

• Obtain Top Management signoff

• This is to become a regular reference point throughout the response to an

incident

1

Planning Mode

Question

How might this work in a Business Continuity context?

Mobilise the Incident

Management Team

The Incident Response procedure is an integral part of the Business Continuity Plan; i.e.

Response Mode (1)

In the event of:-An Alarm or An Alert

• Mobilise the Incident Management

Team (IMT)

Response Mode (2)

• Determine and announce the location of the Incident Management Centre/Control

room• Allocate or agree responsibilities; e.g.

• Team Leader/Chair• Deputy Team Leader/Chair• Spokesperson• Record Keeper• Intelligence

• Follow the D I C E protocol

Question

Would people really follow a protocol under

emergency

conditions?

2. INFORMATION• Define the Situation

• Gather Facts about theEvent and Circumstances

• Establish Communications• Accept that our knowledge may be incomplete

• What are we expecting to achieve?

• How does this knowledge relate to the Mission and Value of the enterprise?

?

Information2

Decision Mode

Question

How might this work in a Business Continuity context?

Decision Mode

3. ASSESSMENT• Assess the Situation,

Risks and Threats• Do we need more

information?• What are the timeframes?

• Develop a viable Strategy

• How do these conclusions relate to the Mission and Value of the enterprise?

?

Strategy3

Question

How might this work in a Business Continuity context?

Powers4

4. POWERS• What Powers might be

needed?• Who has those Powers?

• What is our Policy?• How do we invoke those Powers?• What does our Policy suggest?

• How do these issues relate to the Mission and Value of the enterprise?

?

Decision Mode

Question

How might this work in a Business Continuity context?

Options5

5. OPTIONS• What are the Options?

• Do we need more information?• What are the timeframes?

• Develop a viable Action Plan• Consider the effect of further surprises and problems

• How does this action plan align with the Mission and Value of the enterprise?

?

Decision Mode

Question

How might this work in a Business Continuity context?

6. ACTIONS & REVIEW• Respond• Inform• Record• Monitor• Repeat the cycle

• Until the Incident is Over• Review

• When the Incident is Over

• How do our actions and their effects align with the Mission and Value of the enterprise??

A c ti o n s6

Decision Mode

Question

How might this work in a Business Continuity context?

A Wall Chart

• The following slide could be the basis of a Wall Chart or a Poster in the Command and Control centre

– A useful reminder in the midst of confusion

Or• Provide one for each team member

– Laminated for durability– Key contact details or maps could be printed

on the reverse side

STRATEGY• Assess the Situation, Risks and Threats• Do we need more information?

• What are the timeframes?• Develop a viable Strategy

POWERS• What Powers might be needed?• Who has those Powers?

• What is our Policy?• How do we invoke those Powers?• What does our Policy suggest

OPTIONS• What are the Options?

• Do we need more information?• What are the timeframes?

• Develop a viable Strategy• Consider the effect of further surprises and problems

ACTION & REVIEW• Respond• Inform• Record• Monitor• Repeat the cycle

Until the Incident is Over• Review

When the Incident is Over

At each stage, check the outcome against our Mission and Value Statement

THROUGHOUT• Log and Record• Retain notes and

records as Evidence• Beware of Fatigue

INFORMATION• Define the Situation• Gather the Facts • Establish Communications

• Knowledge may be incomplete• What do we expect to achieve?

Question

How could we make practical use of such a reference chart?

Implementation

• Successful, dependable and defendable emergency decision

making needs a robust process

• A logic-based protocol leads to sound decisions which

everybody will respect, accept and adhere to

• Roles, responsibilities and relationships must be defined and

developed

Learning from Hindsight

POST- EVENT REVIEW• Consider reviewing in reverse order• Do the outcomes and consequences relate to

the ideals of the organisation?• Continue in reverse sequence

– Outcome, then Action, Options, Powers, Strategy, Information and underlying Values

– Do those values still relate to, or represent, the aims and purposes of the organisation?

The D I C E Toolkit • DICE - The Decision Model.docx

− A full descriptive document• DICE - The Decision Model.pptx

− Introductory presentation• DICE Workshop.pptx

− An internal workshop for you to train your decision makers

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*** .doc and .ppt versions can also be made available

Members can obtain their copy of the D I C E Toolkit from the

Business Continuity Institute

at

www.thebci.org

That’s ItDICE