Decision Support Services:

A Review of NWS Buffalo Operationsfollowing the Crash of Continental Flight

3407

Judith LevanWarning Coordination MeteorologistNational Weather Service, Buffalo NY

Continental Flight 3407Operated by Colgan AirFebruary 12, 2009

• Departed Newark, NJ at 9:20 p.m. enroute to Buffalo, NY

• On Board:• Two pilots• Two flight attendants• 45 passengers

Continental Flight 3407February 12, 2009

• Bombardier Dash 8• Twin-engined turboprop• Length 107’ 9”• Wingspan 93’ 3”• Fuel Capacity 1724 US gal

Continental Flight 3407February 12, 2009

• Last communication with flight 10:17 p.m.

• Flight 3407 crashed into a house during an instrument approach to Buffalo-Niagara International Airport. 

Continental Flight 3407

50 Fatalities (49 on-board, 1 on the ground)

Continental Flight 3407

Continental Flight 3407

WFO BUF

Continental Flight 3407

Clarence Center VFD

Continental Flight 3407

6038 Long Street, Clarence Center

Continental Flight 3407

• Lot size:75’ x 210’

Dash 8 93’ span 107’ long

Weather and Forecast

• KBUF 130020Z 1300/1324 24015KT 1 1/2SM -SHSN OVC015         FM130200 25014G24KT 5SM -SHSN BR OVC020         FM130600 30012G20KT P6SM BKN015 BKN060         FM130900 30012KT P6SM BKN025         FM131200 32010KT P6SM SCT025 BKN120         FM131800 32006KT P6SM SCT030

• KBUF 130254Z 24015G22KT 3SM -SN BR FEW011 BKN021 OVC027 01/M01 A2979

• AMD KBUF 130322Z 1303/1324 25014G24KT 3SM -SHSN BR OVC020 FM130500 30012G20KT P6SM BKN015 BKN060

FM130900 30012KT P6SM BKN025FFM131200 32010KT P6SM SCT025 BKN120FM131800 32006KT P6SM SCT030=

• KBUF 130354Z 24011KT 3SM -SN BR SCT011 OVC021 01/M01 A2981

(Accident occurred at approx 0320z)

Note: WFO BUF Issues TAF Forecasts Every 3 Hours

How does one react to disaster?

A Review of Support Provided by NWS Buffalo to Emergency Responders

• Weather Forecast Office • Typically “ramp up” to event

• Outlook, Watch, Warning• Conference Calls with Partners• Extra Staffing

• Emergency Managers / Responders• React to events

NWS Buffalo NY

• On duty• Two forecasters

• Office remodeled in 2008• Workstations focus on

Situational Awareness Displays

Continental Flight 3407

• ~10:20 p.m. Accident Occurs• 10:00 p.m. Newscast ends with

breaking news of a possible plane crash

Continental Flight 3407

• 10:40 p.m. FAA Approach contacts NWS

• 10:45 p.m. Forecaster calls office

• Office begins notifications to Regional Headquarters

• MIC and WCM are called• Archiving of data begins

Continental Flight 3407

• 11:30 p.m. • WFO contacts AOMC• Initiate Aircraft Incident Report

Continental Flight 3407

• 2:30 a.m. MIC arrives at office

• 4:30 a.m. WCM arrives at office

• Between 2:00 and 4:00 am – Numerous media sources begin calling• Initial speculation that weather was a

cause • All inquiries are referred to the FAA

On-site Support

• By 6:00 a.m. the NWS had a presence at the EOC and began providing on-site support • Still considered a fire-fighting operation

• With no survivors

• WCM “to-go” kit included • Laptop• Printer• Aircard• Cell phone• Power Cords

Continental Flight 3407

• Several forecasters on-station, including the WCM, Incident Meteorologist (IMET) and IMET-trainee, had ICS training

• As part of the planning branch, we provided real-time and forecast information• During “down-time” assisted in logging

and planning branch activities

• Erie County utilizes Disaster Lan (D-Lan) for incident management

• The program has a weather “page” which displays current conditions, forecasts, radar loops. All of this is NWS data.• Active weather statements/products are also

highlighted.

Continental Flight 3407

NWS provided weather briefing at ops meetings (held twice daily)

Spot Forecasts

• An internet-based interactive program• In support of a wildfire – available to

any federal, state, tribal or local official • For non-wildfire purposes – available to

Public Safety Officials when essential to public safety

• 43 spots forecasts from 2/13 thru 2/21

Spot Forecasts• Focus transitioned as the recovery

operations progressed• Initial forecasts: smoke dispersion /

HAZMAT releases• Recovery Operations:

temperatures/precipitation• Recovery Operations

• Heavy Equipment: winds

Continental Flight 3407

• Recovery Operations took five days• Other than firefighting, no work was

done during nighttime hours

• “Five day recovery plan” was forced by a Friday 2/13 forecast of rain and snow on Thursday 2/19

National Transportation Safety Board

• Meanwhile, back at the NWS Forecast Office, support provided to NTSB• Aircraft Incident Reports• ASOS Data (observations)• RAOBs (balloon data)• Other Warnings• Short Term Forecasts• Spot Forecasts

Summary

• Reaction to Disasters Built on Instinct• Instructions To Support Emergency

Operations and Station Duty Manuals are Critical

• Rely on your “team” • e. g. Regional Headquarters / IMETs

• Recent Efforts in Short Term Forecasting and Aviation Support paid off

• Situation Awareness Displays and Ops Area reconfiguration were an asset

Summary

• Prior Rapport Between the Local National Weather Service Office and Emergency Management Community is Essential

• Knowledge by EM community of what types of support NWS can provide, including on-site

Summary

• We were extremely fortunate to have four days of sunny skies and fair weather after the crash.

• Community outreach by NWS Staff makes the office a part of the local community

Questions?