Decision TablesPsychology of Personal Decision-Making

Security Family Adventure

Congo - 0 ++Arizona + + 0Afghanistan

-- - +++

Agenda

Video: Building Green How to Choose: “The decision ladder” Prioritized Lists Screening Fact and Value Tables Decision Tables▪ +/-▪ 1-10▪ Calculations

The Decision Ladder

Start with simple methods and move to complex methods only as necessary!

The Decision Ladder

Decision Tree

1-10 Decision Table

+/- Decision Table

Screening

Prioritized List

Prioritized Lists

Bad decisions: Single alternative No Devil’s advocate (groupthink) Unanimous adoption of bad idea

Prioritized Lists

Build a robust list of alternatives! ++ save up for kayaking trip (accept) + go to the coast to hunt for shells

(reject)

- drive smelly grandma to airport (accept)

--bathe grandma (reject)

Ways to Prioritize

Intuition vs. Analysis

Intuition = simultaneous feelings about alternatives One usually feels best, so we choose

Analysis = breaks the problem into sub parts and solves

If the decision is important, use analysis!

After Analysis is complete… Ask yourself (using intuition):

“Does this really make sense?” “Does it seem right?”

If no… Analysis is wrong (values, alternatives,

weights) Intuition is wrong (denying yourself the

truth) Both are wrong

Errors in intuition

World is flat Highly streamlined shapes best for

earth re-entry Odds 2 people will have same

birthday in classroom of 30 (= 1 in 30)

Galileo and Tower of Pisa Others?

Choosing among alternatives Either:

Choose alternative giving you the most ammo for justifying the choice to others

Choose based on good outcomes or consequences

Beware of “rule of thumb” justifications▪ They can be contradictory ▪ “2 heads better than 1 vs. too many cooks in the

kitchen spoil the broth”

Explain to me?

“When the sky looks like its been scratched by a hen, it’s time to reef your topsails then”

If rules of thumb are in conflict: Consider outcomes or consequences

Screening

A lot like panning for gold Consider 1 attribute at a time and

reject TV purchase : Store first, then warranty,

then…

Best buy, Target, Staples, Newegg, Amazon

Sony, Mitsubishi, Sanyo

Problem with screening

You may have screened something really good out!

FIX: Screen the most important value first If doubt about keeping an alternative,

keep it! This way mistakes will not be huge

TAKEAWAY: Screen when values of very high importance are abound

Very high importance screening example Bleeding, Breathing, Poisoning, Broken

Bones

Decision Tables

Ensures same values will be compared against multiple alternatives

Screened out all linguists but Oxford grads because of stage presence

Still are comparing stage presence on each Oxford grad

DTs: Divide and Conquer!

Security Family Adventure

CongoArizonaAfghanistan

Decision Tables and Stakeholders

Security

Family Adventure

Grandpa Susie

CongoArizonaAfghanistan

Fact Tables = Assembling beliefs

Security

Family Adventure

Grandpa Susie

Congo 1 armed guard

70% of time laughing

30 whizbang things per day

Allergic to rainforests

Loves searching for monkeys

Arizona None needed

30% of time laughing

5 whizbang things per day

Lives in New Mexico

Has thought well of the desert

Afghanistan

5 armed guards

3% of time laughing

60 whizbang things per day

Just completed a memoir “In a soldier’s shoes”

Is scared by bullets

Vietnam 1 armed guard

20% of time laughing

40 whizbangs

Fought in NAM

Enjoys jungles and monkeys

Creative Alternative???

Fact Tables = Assembling beliefs

Security

Family Adventure

Grandpa Susie

Congo + ++ + - +Arizona + + 0 - +Afghanistan

-- 0 ++ + -

Vietnam - + + ++ +

Creative Alternative???

Value Table Conversion = +/- Preferences

Security

Family Adventure

Grandpa Susie

Congo 1 armed guard

70% of time laughing

30 whizbang things per day

Allergic to rainforests

Loves searching for monkeys

Arizona None needed

30% of time laughing

5 whizbang things per day

Lives in New Mexico

Has thought well of the desert

Afghanistan

5 armed guards

3% of time laughing

90 whizbang things per day

Just completed a memoir “In a soldier’s shoes”

Is scared by bullets

Dominance??

Value Table Conversion = +/- Preferences

Security

Family Adventure

Grandpa Susie

Congo - 70% of time laughing

30 whizbang things per day

Allergic to rainforests

Loves searching for monkeys

Arizona None needed

30% of time laughing

5 whizbang things per day

Lives in New Mexico

Has thought well of the desert

Afghanistan

5 armed guards

3% of time laughing

90 whizbang things per day

Just completed a memoir “In a soldier’s shoes”

Is scared by bullets

Dominance??

About dominance

We hope to find it, but caution! May indicate superior alternative▪ Also irrationality/extremes

1-10 value tables: RWAM! Rate (1-10, since zeroes confuse

people) Go globally, so 1 is at least preferable

but may not be in your range Weight

Use magic wishes Multiply Down Add Across

1 – 10 value tablesSecurit

y.50

Family.25

Adventure.18

Grandpa.035

Susie.035

Congo 4 7 4 1 7Afghanistan

2 1 8 6 1

Vietnam 6 3 5 7 8Securit

yFamily Adventu

reGrandpa Susie

10 (most preferred)

No guards needed

98% laughing

100 whizbang

things per day

n/a n/a

1 (lease preferred)

20 guards needed

0% laughing

0 whizbang

things per day

n/a n/a

How to Weight (Range Table)

Security

Family Adventure

Grandpa Susie

10 (most preferred)

No guards needed

98% laughing

100 whizbang

things per day

n/a n/a

1 (lease preferred)

20 guards needed

0% laughing

0 whizbang

things per day

n/a n/a

Relative Importance

Can help to think about relative: Magnitude Duration Probability Number of people impacted

Commitment

Bumper sticker slogans Written sentences