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Decomposition Analysis Application of Forward Looking 1
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Decomposition Analysis
Application of Forward Looking
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Outline
1. Methodology
2. Examples of ex-post usage
3. Current use ex-ante
4. Possible ex-ante use for Forward Looking
5. Ljubljana 2012: Which kind of use and which application?
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1. Methodology
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Methodology
Principles of decomposition analysis (D.A.)
Design of policy instruments and assessment or monitoring of measures require knowledge of factors and drivers influencing loads or emissions
The composition analysis delivers a methodical approach to quantify the effects of these driving forces
Therefore the loads or emissions are decomposed into a product of factors
In order to determine the corresponding contribution of these drivers the changes of loads or emissions are carried out
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D.A. Methodology
Procedure of composition analysis First step of composition analysis is to identify the primary drivers (e.g. GDP,
population, energy consumption)
Each individual change of load or emission represents the contribution of a driver while leaving all other independent variable unchanged
The effect of a certain driver within the chosen period (e.g. 1990-2010) is quantified by calculating the single effect of a change of this driver on total load or emissions, while leaving all other drivers constant
When all drivers follow the change over time, the result has to be equivalent to the overall change in the load or emission, and represents the sum of the effects of all drivers
Such analysis can be done with any selection of drivers and for any specific sector. The relevance of its result will depend on the appropriateness of the selected drivers for the sector chosen.
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Factors contributing to changes
∆ GHG = pop * ∆ (GDP/pop) * ∆ (ENEcons/GDP) *
* ∆ (ENEfossil use / ENEcons) * ∆ (GHG/ENEfossil use )
GHG…greenhouse gas emissions GDP/pop………..describes economic development
pop…..population ENEcons/GDP…describes energy intensity
GDP…gross domestic product ENEfossil use/ENEcons…describes share of fossil fuels in total energy consumed
ENEcons…energy consumption GHG/ENEfossil use…describes emission intensity of fossil fuels
ENEfossil use…fossil energy use
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2. Examples of ex-post usage
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Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe
A retrospective trend analysis for the period 1990-2008, EEA Oct. 2011
<- Drivers of EU GHG emissions from energy supply, 1990–2008
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Ex-post D.A. for the total GHG emissions of Austria:Main drivers for trends from 1990-2009,Klimaschutzbericht, 2011
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Em
issi
ons
1990
Pop
ulat
ion
GD
P p
er h
ead
Ene
rgy
inte
nsity
Fue
l int
ensi
ty
Bio
mas
s
Fue
l mix
(fo
ssil)
Em
issi
ons
2009
Decomposition Analysis Austria 1990-2009
comparision 1990 and 2009
bas
e ye
ar 1
990
= 1
00 p
erce
nt
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3. Current usage ex-ante
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Em
issi
ons
1990
Num
ber
of
dwel
lings
Ave
rage
are
a pe
r dw
ellin
g
Ene
rgy
use
for
heat
ing/
hot w
ater
per
m²
Ele
ctric
ity
Dis
tric
t hea
ting
Am
bien
t hea
t
Bio
mas
s
Fue
l mix
(fo
ssil)
Hea
ting
degr
ee
days
Em
issi
ons
2050
Decomposition Analysis for Households 1990-2050
comparision 1990 and 2050
bas
e ye
ar 1
990
= 1
00 p
erce
nt
Model based Ex-ante D.A. for households in Austria:Main drivers for GHG emission trends from 1990-2050
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4. Possible ex-ante use for Forward Looking
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(A) Combination of D.A. and extrapolation of factors
1. Ex-post D.A. for each year between the starting year and the recent year with data
2. Building an expected trend of each factor by (existing) data from reliable and proofed, external models or simple by expert guess in a workshop with stakeholders
3. Estimating range of mean variation (a simple confidence intervall) for each factor by scenarios of external model or by expert guess
4. Calculating the expected load or emission by ex-ante composition of factors
5. Calculating the distribution of the load or emission („uncertainty“) => Forwarding Composition Analysis F.C.A.
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(B) F.C.A. in strategic policy assessment1. Ex-post D.A. form base year to last data year
2. Calculation of the gap between state of load or emission and the aim in the traget year
3. Suggestion of policy & measures (better only one PAM, max. 3 PAMs) to reach this target in a workshop with stakeholders
4. Identifying factors which will be influencened by proposed measures & instruments
5. Estimation of the strength of needed instruments and the effected factors by each PaM refering to autonomous change (baseline scenario) and other PAMs (advanced policy scenario) by expert guess (CONSIDEO?)
6. Calculating the expected load or emission by ex-ante composition (Forward Comosition Analysis = F.C.A) of changed factors for the target year
7. Feedback to stakeholders about the needed strength to reach the target or an assessment of designed PAMs related to the target
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5. Ljubljana 2012: Which kind of use and which application?
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Possible workshop design elements
Uncertainties
Trends on policy & measuresDriving forces
Key issues of policy Key indicators
Forward looking by ex-ante D.A. = F.C.A.
Ex-post D.A.
Error propagation
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Contact & Information
Alexander Storch
++43 (0)1 313 04/5965
Environmental Agency Austriawww.umweltbundesamt.at
FLIS, article 5 contract – project meeting
Vienna■ November 24th 2011
