26
Defects: Then and Now Jeffrey Quandt, NHTSA Office of Defects Investigation May 9, 2006
Defects: Then and Now
Jeffrey Quandt, NHTSAOffice of Defects Investigation
May 9, 2006
2
Vehicle Defect Recalls Trends in Recalled Vehicles
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Recall Year
Veh
icle
s (M
illio
ns)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% In
fluen
ced
Total Influenced %Influenced
3
Vehicle Defect Recalls Trends in Recalled Vehicles
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Recall Year
Veh
icle
s (M
illio
ns)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% In
fluen
ced
Total Influenced %Influenced
1984 – 1994
THEN?
1995 – 2005
NOW?
6M/yr avg
17M/yr avg
11M/yr diff167% ↑
4
Vehicle Defect Recalls Trends in Recalled Vehicles
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Recall Year
Veh
icle
s (M
illio
ns)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% In
fluen
ced
Total Influenced %Influenced
1984 – 1994• 6.3M veh/yr• 66% influenced
1995 – 2005 • 17.0M veh/yr• 62% influenced
5
Vehicle Defect Recalls Trends in Recalls
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Recall Year
Rec
alls
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% In
fluen
ced
Total Influenced %Influenced
6
Vehicle Defect Recalls Trends in Recalls
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Recall Year
Rec
alls
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% In
fluen
ced
Total Influenced %Influenced
1984 – 1994• 163 recalls/yr• 21% influenced• ↑ 9 rec/yr
1995 – 2005• 354 recalls/yr• 23% influenced• ↑ 24 rec/yr
7
Vehicle Defect Recalls Trends in Recalls by Number of Manufacturers
225
3717 7
532
94
3610
154%
112%
43%
136%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
≥ 1 ≥ 10 ≥ 25 ≥ 50
Recalls
Man
ufac
ture
rs
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%Then: 1984-94Now: 1995-05% Change
8
Vehicle Defect Recalls Trends in Recalled Vehicles by Vehicle Type, 1995 - 2005
38%
14%
23%
14%
3%3% 3%1% 0%
1%
Share of VehiclesRecalled
Share of Recalls
19%
1%
6%
4%
1%
1%
44%
15%
9% 1%
CarCar & LTVLight TruckMultipurposeLight Truck & MPVCar, LTV & HvyHeavyTrailerMotorcycleEquipment
9
Vehicle Defect Recalls Trends in Average Age Range of Recalls, Non-Influenced
0
1
2
3
4
5
619
84
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Recall Year
Age
(Yrs
)Average Recall Age 1966-83 1984-94 1995-05 2006
Total 1966-06
Lower 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 Upper 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.8 Range 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.3
10
Vehicle Defect Recalls Trends in Average Age Range of Recalls, Influenced
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Recall Year
Age
(Yrs
)Average Recall Age 1966-83 1984-94 1995-05 2006
Total 1966-06
Lower 2.6 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.9 Upper 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.4 Range 2.1 2.9 2.4 2.7 2.5
11
Vehicle Defect Recalls Trends in Average Recall Size
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Recall Year
Vehi
cles
/Rec
all
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Ratio
(Inf
luen
ced/
Non-
Influ
ence
d)
Non-influenced Influenced Influenced/Non-influenced
12
Vehicle Defect Recalls Trends in Average Recall Size
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Recall Year
Vehi
cles
/Rec
all
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Ratio
(Inf
luen
ced/
Non-
Influ
ence
d)
Non-influenced Influenced Influenced/Non-influenced
Then: 1984 – 1994Average recall size- Total: 38,995- Non-infl: 16,628- Influenced: 122,765- Influenced/Non-infl: 7.4
Now: 1995 – 2005Average recall size
- Total: 47,858 (23% ↑)- Non-infl: 23,306 (40% ↑)- Influenced: 131,785 (7% ↑)- Influenced/Non-infl: 5.7 (23% ↓)
13
Vehicle Defect Recalls Effect of Large Recalls on Number of Vehicles Recalled
020406080
100120140160180200
0
500
1,00
0
1,50
0
2,00
0
2,50
0
3,00
0
3,50
0
4,00
0
4,50
0
Recalls
Vehi
cles
Rec
alle
d (m
illio
ns)
Now: 1995-2005• 3,898 recalls• 188,332,449 vehicles
Then: 1984-1994• 1,789 recalls• 69,761,829 vehicles
14
Vehicle Defect Recalls Effect of Large Recalls on Number of Vehicles Recalled
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%0% 10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% of Recalls
% o
f Veh
icle
s R
ecal
led
Then: 1984-1994
Now: 1995-200510% of recalls are responsible for over 80% of all vehicles recalled for safety defects
15
Vehicle Defect Recalls NOW vs. THEN, by Numbers of Large Recalls
16
63
49
124
4
26 25
73
1
15 14
36
9 9
21
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Then (1984-94) Now (1995-05) Then (1984-94) Now (1995-05)
Not Influenced Influenced
Rec
alls
>250K >500K >750K >1M
16
Vehicle Defect Recalls NOW vs. THEN, by Vehicles Recalled in Large Recalls
23
70
46
119
7
36 36
100
3
2328
83
1
1621
59
1117
46
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Then (1984-94) Now (1995-05) Then (1984-94) Now (1995-05)
Not Influenced Influenced
Veh
icle
s R
ecal
led
(Milli
ons)
TOTAL >250K >500K >750K >1M
17
Vehicle Defect Recalls Trends in Large Recalls, Recalls/Year with > 250,000 Vehicles
3.34.3 4.5
10.6
1.3
2.9
11.0
18.6
2.4
8.440.0%
55.8%
64.4%
79.2%
59.0%
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
Recall Period (1967-2006)
Avg
reca
lls/y
ear
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% In
fluen
ced
by O
DI
Total Influenced % Influenced
18
Vehicle Defect RecallsSystem effect on increase in number of recalls
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Brakes
, ABS
Air bag
sSea
tsLig
hting
Trailer
hitch
esEng
ine
Elect, o
th tha
n ign
Suspe
nsion
Electric
al, ig
nition
Powert
rain
Visibility
, wipe
rsSea
t belt
sStru
cture
Wheels Fue
l
Brks, o
th tha
n ABS
Steerin
g
Latch
es/lo
cks/l
inks
Veh sp
eed c
ontro
l
Vis, ot
h tha
n wipe
rOthe
r
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
Then: 1984-1994 Now: 1995-2005 % Change
19
Vehicle Defect RecallsSystem effect on increase in vehicles recalled
02468
10121416182022
Brakes
, ABS
Electric
al, ig
nition
Trailer
hitch
esAir b
ags
Visibility
, wipe
rsLig
hting
Structu
reStee
ring
Suspe
nsion
Elect, o
th tha
n ign
Seat b
elts
Veh sp
eed c
ontro
l
Latch
es/lo
cks/l
inks
Wheels
Brks, o
th tha
n ABSFue
lPow
ertrai
nSea
tsEng
ine
Vis, ot
h tha
n wipe
rOthe
r
Mill
ions
0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%1400%1600%1800%2000%2200%
Then: 1984-1994 Now: 1995-2005 % Change
20
Vehicle Defect RecallsSystem influence on average recall size
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Elect, i
gnitio
n
Visibility
, wipe
rsSea
t belt
s
Latch
es/lo
cks
Lighti
ngAir b
ags
Structu
re
Speed
contr
olSea
tsPow
ertrai
nFue
l
Brakes
, ABS
Vis, ot
h tha
n wipe
rsStee
ring
Brakes
, oth
than A
BSSus
pens
ionEng
ine
Elect, o
th tha
n ign
Trailer
hitch
esWhe
elsOthe
rTota
lA
vera
ge re
call
size
(x1,
000)
NOW: 1995-2005
THEN: 1984-1994
21
Vehicle Defect RecallsEffects of selected new technologies
No.% of Total No.
% of Total No.
% of Total No.
% of Total
Electronics 69 3.9% 2,443,167 3.5% 387 9.9% 18,928,447 10.0% - Computer control/module 14 0.8% 373,530 0.5% 153 3.9% 5,417,829 2.9% - Sensors 13 0.7% 612,019 0.9% 91 2.3% 2,854,517 1.5% - Software/reprogram/reflash 1 0.1% 2,180 0.0% 59 1.5% 1,930,597 1.0%
Side air bags 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 19 0.5% 831,931 0.4%Advanced braking 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 3 0.1% 347,842 0.2%Seat belt pretensioners 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 8 0.2% 340,764 0.2%Electronic throttle control 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 18 0.5% 105,171 0.1%Electronic stability control 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 4 0.1% 40,496 0.0%Tire pressure monitoring 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 0.1% 1,863 0.0%
NOW: 1994-2005Recalls Vehicles
System/component
THEN: 1984-94Recalls Vehicles
22
Defect InvestigationsTrends in Investigations Opened
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year Opened
PE EA
23
Defect InvestigationsTrends in Investigations Opened
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year Opened
PE EA
1985 – 1994Average inv/yr- PE: 91- EA: 36- Total: 127 1995 – 2005
Average inv/yr- PE: 64 (30% ↓)- EA: 28 (22% ↓)- Total: 92 (28% ↓)
24
Defect InvestigationsTrends in Investigations Influencing Recalls, by Year Closed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year Closed
PE's EA's
25
Defect InvestigationsTrends in Investigations Influencing Recalls, by Year Closed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year Closed
PE's EA's
1985 – 1994Averages- PE: 15%- EA: 35%- Total: 21%
1995 – 2005Averages- PE: 24%- EA: 46%- Total: 31%
26
Defect InvestigationsTrends in Investigations Influencing Recalls, by Year Closed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year Closed
PE's EA's
1985 – 1994Averages- PE: 15%- EA: 35%- Total: 21%
1995 – 2005Averages- PE: 24%- EA: 46%- Total: 31%
2003 – 2005Averages- PE: 39%- EA: 59%- Total: 45%
