DEFENDING THE NECESSITY FOR WAR

THE WAR: 5 YEARS OF PROGRESS TOPICS

SOME “WAR ON TERROR” BASICS

WE’VE BEEN SEEING TERROR ATTACKS WELL PRIOR TO 9/11. TO LIST JUST A FEW:

* Iran Embassy Hostages, 1979;* Beirut, Lebanon Embassy 1983;* Beirut, Lebanon Marine Barracks 1983;* Lockerbie, Scotland Pan-Am flight to New York 1988;* First New York World Trade Center attack 1993;* Dhahran, Saudi Arabia Khobar Towers Military complex 1996;* Nairobi, Kenya US Embassy 1998;* Dares Salaam, Tanzania US Embassy 1998;* Aden, Yemen USS Cole 2000;* New York World Trade Center 2001;* Pentagon 2001.

SOME “WAR ON TERROR” BASICS

ONE GETS A BETTER APPRECIATION OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS “WAR ON TERROR” VIA A PICTORIAL RUN THROUGH OF THE 2 ½ DECADES OF TERRORISM ACROSS MULTIPLE CONTINENTS.

PLEASE TAKE A LOOK USING THE LINK BELOW. ALSO NOTE, THIS CURRENT SLIDESHOW COMPRISES 52 SLIDES. AFTER FOLLOWING THE LINK, YOU MAY HAVE TO RETURN MANUALLY TO THE START OF THIS ONE.

WHY CALL IT WW III ?OR, URL REF: http://www.slideshare.net/MarkS181 , see “WHY CALL IT WW III?”

TERRORISTS: A NUCLEAR THREAT TO AMERICA?

THE NATURE OF THE PLAN -- THE “WHAT ?”

Dr. A.Q. Khan, the "father of the Islamic bomb" has already provided nuclear expertise, materials, and weapon designs to Osama bin Laden to assist in the realization of the "American Hiroshima."

The plan calls for the simultaneous detonation of 7 tactical nuclear devices in 7 U.S. cities at the same time. Each device is to produce an explosive yield equal to the 1945 blast in Hiroshima that killed 242,437 Japanese civilians.

TERRORISTS: A NUCLEAR THREAT TO AMERICA?5 KNOWLEDGEABLE OPINIONS

Source: Paul Williams. “The Day of Islam”

THE WAR: 5 YEARS OF PROGRESS TOPICS

THE ANTI-WAR GROUPS MUST ADDRESS THE QUESTIONS:

IF “WAR IS NOT THE ANSWER” – WHAT IS?• HOW DO WE RID OURSELVES OF PREDATORY TYRANTS OR PROMOTERS OF EVIL IDEOLOGIES?• ISN’T THIS SLOGAN NOTHING MORE THAN A FRIVOLOUS, IRRESPONSIBLE HOPE THAT NOTHING BAD WILL HAPPEN?

“WAR IS NOT THE ANSWER !”

IT’S A SEDUCTIVE SLOGAN - -BUT IT’S NOT REALLY WRITTEN ON CLAY TABLETS !

IRAQ IS ABOUT OIL ??

Ref: http://vitalperspective.typepad.com/vital_perspective_clarity/2007/09/greenspan-is-wr.html

SADDAM - al QAEDA CONNECTIONSRef 1: “Report Shows Link Between Saddam and al-Qaeda: Mainstream Media Wrong Again”, Tim Wilson, Family Security Matters, March 17, 2008 Ref 2: “Saddam and Terrorism: Emerging Insights from Captured Iraqi Documents, V1” (Redacted), INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Paper P-4287, Kevin M. Woods, James Lacey, Nov 2007

Ref 1: The actual IDA report, Ref 2., details that, despite having examined only 15% of the documents, they found solid Iraqi links to: al-Qaeda’s number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri’s Egyptian Islamic Jihad; al-Qaeda spokesman and Imam Sheik Omar Abdul-Rahman’s Islamic Group; al-Qaeda’s Bahranian arm known as the Army of Mohammed; the Islamic Movement of Kurdistan which was the forerunner of al-Qaeda in Iraq; Gulbuddin Hekmatyar who was a key ally of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan; and the Abu Sayyaf group, another al-Qaeda affiliate in the Philippines. In particular, on page 42 of the report they acknowledge that “Saddam supported groups that either associated directly with al Qaeda (such as the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, led at one time by bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri) or that generally shared al Qaeda's stated goals and objectives. ”

SADDAM - al QAEDA CONNECTIONSRef 1: “Report Shows Link Between Saddam and al-Qaeda: Mainstream Media Wrong Again”, Tim Wilson, Family Security Matters, March 17, 2008 Ref 2: “Saddam and Terrorism: Emerging Insights from Captured Iraqi Documents, V1” (Redacted), INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Paper P-4287, Kevin M. Woods, James Lacey, Nov 2007

Ref 2.: The IDA REPORT Executive Summary asserts that this “review of captured Iraqi documents uncovered strong evidence that links the regime of Saddam Hussein to regional and global terrorism. Despite their incompatible long-term goals, many terrorist movements and Saddam found a common enemy in the United States. ”

SADDAM - al QAEDA CONNECTIONSRef 1: “Report Shows Link Between Saddam and al-Qaeda: Mainstream Media Wrong Again”, Tim Wilson, Family Security Matters, March 17, 2008 Ref 2: “Saddam and Terrorism: Emerging Insights from Captured Iraqi Documents, V1” (Redacted), INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Paper P-4287, Kevin M. Woods, James Lacey, Nov 2007

Ref 2.:Saddam's interest in, and support for, non-state actors was spread across a variety of revolutionary, liberation, nationalist, and Islamic terrorist organizations. A review of available Iraqi documents indicated the following:• The Iraqi regime was involved in regional and international terrorist operations prior to OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM. The predominant targets of Iraqi state terror operations were Iraqi citizens, both inside and outside of Iraq.• On occasion, the Iraqi Intelligence Services directly targeted the regime's perceived enemies, including non-Iraqis. Non-Iraqi casualties often resulted from Iraqi sponsorship of non-governmental terrorist groups.

SADDAM - al QAEDA CONNECTIONSRef 1: “Report Shows Link Between Saddam and al-Qaeda: Mainstream Media Wrong Again”, Tim Wilson, Family Security Matters, March 17, 2008 Ref 2: “Saddam and Terrorism: Emerging Insights from Captured Iraqi Documents, V1” (Redacted), INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Paper P-4287, Kevin M. Woods, James Lacey, Nov 2007

Ref 2.: A review of available Iraqi documents indicated the following (cont’d):• Saddam's regime often cooperated directly, albeit cautiously, with terrorist groups when they believed such groups could help advance Iraq's long-term goals. The regime carefully recorded its connections to Palestinian terror organizations in numerous government memos. One such example documents Iraqi financial support to families of suicide bombers in Gaza and the West Bank.• State sponsorship of terrorism became such a routine tool of state power that Iraq developed elaborate bureaucratic processes to monitor progress and accountability in the recruiting, training, and resourcing of terrorists. Examples include the regime's development, construction, certification, and training for car bombs and suicide vests in 1999 and 2000.

$$ COSTS OF THE WARRef: “In Defense of Defense Spending”. James Jay Carafano, 2/26/2008

President Bush's proposed defense budget for 2007 - was $550B.

BUT CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING: Both "smart" weapons and battlefield medical advances, for example, cost

more in real dollars. But they dramatically reduce the cost in lives - civilian as well as military.

America is engaged in a long war. We must be prepared to pay for it. Over the long term, defense spending as a percentage of GDP is the

appropriate way to measure our national commitment to keeping America safe, free and prosperous. In these terms, we’re spending far less to defend Freedom in IRAQ AND Afghanistan than in any of our recent prior wars (see charts)

Today's military is a bargain. America is a global power with global responsibility. True, we spend more on defense than any other country. But, as the most powerful Nation, America bears far more burdens as well. The true value of Freedom only becomes clear when it is lost. From this perspective, as well as in $ terms, it is worth every penny.

COSTS OF THE WAR

THE COSTS OF WAR - 2008 (as % of GDP)

0102030405060

WWII KOREA VIETNAM IRAQ +AFGHAN.

% O

F G

DP

AS THIS DATA AND THAT ON THE NEXT CHART SHOW - - THE THREAT TO OUR POCKETBOOK IS NOT THE CURRENT WAR !

COSTS OF THE WAR -2008 (as % of FEDERAL BUDGET)

0

20

40

60

80

WWII IRAQ + AFGHAN. ENTITLEMENTPROGRAMS

% O

F F

ED

ER

AL

BU

DG

ET

COSTS OF THE WARRef: “Defense FY 2008 Budget : 4% for Freedom”, Baker Spring , Heritage.org, 3/5/2007

Ref: “Democracy? In Iraq?”, Chappell Lawson and Strom C. Thacker, Hoover DIGEST, 2003, # 3. [ Democracy Scores cited as per Freedom House ]

NOTES:

• Democracy scores reflect the time frame 1996-2000. IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN scored ZERO.

• The 19 Countries assessed reflect Nations that “ the United States has occupied or helped to occupy” in the last century.

NATIONS THAT “ THE UNITED STATES HAS OCCUPIED OR HELPED TO OCCUPY” IN THE LAST CENTURY.

DURATION OF OCCUPATION

COUNTRY PERIOD TOTAL YRS

DEMOCRACY SCORE

[ 0. To 12. ]

GREATER THAN 7.5

WITHDREW; DID NOT COLONIZE

POPULAT'N (2006) In millions

BOSNIA-HERZOGOVINA 96-2002 6 3.7 4.5

CAMBODIA 70-73 3 1.8 14.

GRENADA 1983 1 11 .08

SOUTH KOREA 1945-1948 3 10 49.

SOMALIA 93-95 2 0.4 9.1

AUSTRIA 45-55 10 12 8.2

CUBA 1898-1922 (intmt) 14 0.4 11.4

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

1916-1924; 1965-66 9 8.3 9.3

GERMANY 1945-1955 10 11 82.4

HAITI 1915-34; 1994-96 21 4.5 8.7

JAPAN 1945-1952 7 11 127.4

MARSHALL ISLANDS 1945-86 41 12 .06

MICRONESIA 1945-86 41 11.3 .1

NICARAGUA 1909-33 24 7.7 5.7

PALAU 1945-94 49 11 .02

PANAMA 1903-36 33 9.4 3.2

PHILLIPINES 1898-46 48 8.8 91.

VIETNAM 1963-73 10 0.4 85.2

TOTAL > 7.5 376.46

3 FURTHER GROUPS OF COUNTRIES ENJOYING VARYING DEGREES OF DEMOCRACY TODAY DUE TO AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY:• FROM WW II• FROM BREAK-UP OF USSR• IRAQ & AFGHANISTAN

TOTAL #’s OF PEOPLE:• LIBERATED: 376 Million• ENJOYING DEMOCRACY DUE TO AMERICAN ACTION: 315 Million

TOTAL: 691 Million People

NATIONS FREED BY AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY

THE WAR: 5 YEARS OF PROGRESS TOPICS

IRAQI CIVILIAN DEATHS FROM VIOLENCE IN MONTH OF FEBRUARY

0500

10001500200025003000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

DE

AT

HS

MIL PRO

GRESS

THIS AND THE NEXT SERIES OF CHARTS ILLUSTRATE BOTH MILITARY AND POLITICAL PROGRESS IN IRAQ. Ref: "The State of Iraq: An Update", The New York Times, JASON CAMPBELL, MICHAEL O’HANLON and AMY UNIKEWICZ, March 9, 2008

US TROOP DEATHS IN IRAQ IN MONTH OF FEBRUARY

0

20

40

60

80

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

DE

AT

HS

Series1

MIL PRO

GRESS

Ref: CAMPBELL, O’HANLON and UNIKEWICZ, op cit

JOINT U.S.- IRAQI SECURITY FORCES IN BAGHDAD

01020304050607080

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

JOIN

T F

OR

CE

GR

OU

PS

MIL

PRO

GRES

SRef: CAMPBELL, O’HANLON and UNIKEWICZ, op cit

SUNNI VOLUNTEERS WORKING WITH U.S. AND IRAQI FORCES

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008SU

NN

I VO

LUN

TEE

RS

PO

LITI

CAL

PRO

GRES

SRef: CAMPBELL, O’HANLON and UNIKEWICZ, op cit

IRAQI CIVILIANS NEWLY DISPLACED BY VIOLENCE

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

# O

F C

IVIL

IAN

S

Series1

PO

LITICAL

PROG

RESS

Ref: CAMPBELL, O’HANLON and UNIKEWICZ, op cit

OIL PRODUCTION IN MILLIONS OF BARRELS PER DAY

2.3

2.1

1.8

2.1

2.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008BA

RR

EL

S P

ER

DA

Y (

MIL

S)

PO

LITI

CAL

PRO

GRES

S

Ref: CAMPBELL, O’HANLON and UNIKEWICZ, op cit

HOUSEHOLD FUEL SUPPLY (as % of estimated need)

30

50

70

90

110

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008% O

F E

STI

MA

TED

NE

ED

Series1

POLITICAL

PROGRESS

Ref: CAMPBELL, O’HANLON and UNIKEWICZ, op cit

MONEY FROM BAGHDAD TO AVG IRAQI PROVINCE

($ mils / year)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$ M

ils

PE

R Y

EA

R

POLITI

CAL

PROGRESS

Ref: CAMPBELL, O’HANLON and UNIKEWICZ, op cit

POLITICAL PROGRESS IN TERMS OF BROOKINGS BENCHMARKS

(# of POINTS OUT OF 11)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

PO

INT

S S

CO

RE

D O

F 1

1

POLI

TICA

L

PROGRE

SSRef: CAMPBELL, O’HANLON and UNIKEWICZ, op cit

COLD WAR LESSONS FOR GWOTRef: “Winning The Long War”, J.J Carafano & Paul Rosensweig, Heritage Books, 2005

NUCLEAR-IRAN: THE SIGNS ARE NOT GOOD

Ref: “Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions – The Threat Explained”, Tim Wilson, Family Security matters, January 17, 2008

NUCLEAR-IRAN: THE CONSEQUENCES ARE WORSE

Ref: “Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions – The Threat Explained”, Tim Wilson, Family Security matters, January 17, 2008

THE WAR: 5 YEARS OF PROGRESS TOPICS

Ref: http://www.americansolutions.com/

3 CORE TRANSFORMATIONS:

3 CORE TRANSFORMATIONS:

• NOT R vs B … BUT R-W-B TOGETHER !• 91% of USA BELIEVES IN “ONE NATION UNDER GOD”• 89% BELIEVE IN SECRET BALLOT ELECTION TO UNIONIZE• 93% BELIEVE KNOW PRICE / QUALITY BEFORE SELECTING MEDICAL SYSTEM• 85% BELIEVE ENGLISH SHOULD BE OFFICIAL LANGUAGE• 78% BELIEVE IN ABOLISHING DEATH TAX

3 CORE TRANSFORMATIONS:

• NEED SERIOUS INTENT & PROCESSES: • eg UPS, FEDEX can track pkgs in real time; gov’t can’t track illegals. ATMs can check your identity in another country and give you your $$ from home. Gov’t can’t catch multiple false ID’s

• GOV’T NEEDS TO ADOPT THESE PRINCIPLES:• market-oriented• entrepreneurially driven• science & technology based

3 CORE TRANSFORMATIONS:

• THREE KEY QUESTIONS:• IS THE WORLD DANGEROUS ?• DO WE HAVE ENEMIES ?• DO THE TERRORISTS MEAN IT WHEN THEY SAY THEY WANT TO KILL AS MANY AMERICANS AS POSSIBLE? (AND THEY PREFER WMDs TO DO IT )

• THE LEFT THINKS THE WORLD IS LESS DANGEROUS THAN AMERICA.

THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS :

THE WAR: 5 YEARS OF PROGRESS TOPICS

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

THE END