DEFENSE REVIEW AND STATUS OF DEFENSE REFORM
Maj. Zoltan HORVATHStaff Officer, J-5, HUMOD, DS
February 2005February 2005
The changing security The changing security environment environment - NATO enlargement;- NATO enlargement;
- 11 September.- 11 September. Defense and security interestDefense and security interestss
abroadabroad Shortfalls, surplus and obsolete Shortfalls, surplus and obsolete
capabilities in the defense capabilities in the defense sectorsector
The The formerformer force structure force structure wawas s financiallyfinancially unaffordableunaffordable
Financial shortfalls in the area Financial shortfalls in the area of maintenance and of maintenance and modernizationmodernization
Defense ReviewDefense Review
„To qualitatively contribute to the Euro-Atlantic peace and security”
To balance the new security challenges and available resources
To deliver a properly costed 10 year plan
To develop realistic, affordable, military capabilities
To transform to voluntary based, fully professional armed forces
Reasons Mission
Objectives
AssumptionsAssumptions
Threats:Threats:• No large-scale conventional threat to NATO and Hungary No large-scale conventional threat to NATO and Hungary
within the foreseeable futurewithin the foreseeable future Potential threatsPotential threats
• Regional instability: Balkans, MediterraneanRegional instability: Balkans, Mediterranean• TerrorismTerrorism• Proliferation of WMD, delivery meansProliferation of WMD, delivery means
Risks Risks • Illegal and mass migration, organized crime, drug-trafficking, Illegal and mass migration, organized crime, drug-trafficking,
environmental and other risksenvironmental and other risks
The ten-step processThe ten-step process of the of the ReviewReview
Allocate resources and finalize Master Plan10
Decide on priorities9
Identify options8
Develop credible and robust costing7
Identify the full implications6
Identify Required Military Capabilities5
Agree Planning Assumptions4
Agree Military Missions and Tasks3
Agree Defense Objectives2
Agree Foreign and Security Policy objectives1
1.1. NATO Article 5 NATO Article 5 OperationsOperations
1.1. 1.1. Home defenseHome defense1.2. Common defense, assisting other member state1.2. Common defense, assisting other member state
1.3. Common defense, against strategic attack on NATO1.3. Common defense, against strategic attack on NATO
2.2. Border securityBorder security3.3. Host Nation SupportHost Nation Support
4.4.Participation in international Participation in international crisis management, peace crisis management, peace operationsoperations
4.1. Peace support operations (military observer missions)4.1. Peace support operations (military observer missions)4.2. Peacekeeping operations4.2. Peacekeeping operations4.3. Peace enforcement operations4.3. Peace enforcement operations
5.5. Participation in international crisis management, other international operations.Participation in international crisis management, other international operations.6.6. Other non-warOther non-war--figfighhting operations e.g. ting operations e.g. Fighting against terrorismFighting against terrorism7.7. Bilateral, multilateral co-operationBilateral, multilateral co-operation8.8. International treaties, arms controlInternational treaties, arms control9. 9. Humanitarian assistanceHumanitarian assistance10.10. Information collection, processing and securityInformation collection, processing and security
11.11. Assistance for civil authoritiesAssistance for civil authorities
11.1. Disaster relief11.1. Disaster relief11.2. Explosive Ordnance Disposal11.2. Explosive Ordnance Disposal11.3. Search and Rescue11.3. Search and Rescue11.4. State of Emergency tasks11.4. State of Emergency tasks
12.12. Air PolicingAir Policing / Air Defense / Air Defense13.13. Frequency ManagementFrequency Management1414. . ProtocolProtocol
Tasks of the Hungarian Defense Tasks of the Hungarian Defense ForcesForces
Force development Force development considerationsconsiderations
Collective security requirementCollective security requirement Retain military capabilities justified by the level of ambition.Retain military capabilities justified by the level of ambition. Operations in Allied (International) Coalition – expeditionary forces.Operations in Allied (International) Coalition – expeditionary forces. Modular, multifunctional, flexibleModular, multifunctional, flexible units units.. Increase number of deployable combat elements.Increase number of deployable combat elements. Enhance combat support and combat service support capabilities.Enhance combat support and combat service support capabilities. Focus on Alliance shortfalls (bridging, MP, water purification).Focus on Alliance shortfalls (bridging, MP, water purification). Focus on „Niche” capabilities (medical, CIMIC, NBC, SOF).Focus on „Niche” capabilities (medical, CIMIC, NBC, SOF). Replace old, obsolete WP equipment with NATO compatible systems.Replace old, obsolete WP equipment with NATO compatible systems. Corps level support artillery, EW, AIFVs eliminated, MBTs downsized.Corps level support artillery, EW, AIFVs eliminated, MBTs downsized. Transformation, modernization, transition to voluntary based, fully Transformation, modernization, transition to voluntary based, fully
professional armed forces.professional armed forces.
Level of ambitionLevel of ambition(as a result of Defense Review)(as a result of Defense Review)
Capability Gaps
NRF Concept
PCC Areas
Role Sharing
Multinational Efforts
OperationsOperationsabroadabroad
One brigade,
no rotation, one shot
NATO Article 5, EU operations, deploymentwith all CS and CSS elements
Two battalion size forces, max 1600 persons, A-B-C rotation
Four transport helos
Four Gripens for Air-to-
Ground tasks
SpecializationSpecialization One shotno rotation
MP battalion
Water purification
coyBridgingbattalion
„Niche capabilities”(Med, CIMIC,
CBNR, SOF, HUMINT,
PSYOPS)
Air policing
The long term approach of the HDF The long term approach of the HDF transformation transformation
2004-20132004-2013PHASE I
2004 - 2006
PHASE II
2007 - 2010
PHASE III
2011 - 2013
1st period
2004.03.01-
2004.08.31.
2nd period
2004.05.01-
2004.10.31.
3rd period
2004.07.01-
2005.02.28.
4 th period
2005.03.01-
2005.08.31.
5 th period
2005.09.01-
2006.02.28.
Legal Sector Human Sector
Budget and Finance sector Military Sector
Technical Modernization,Acquisition
Cost-balanced 10-year Plan
Characteristics of phasesCharacteristics of phases
THE FIRST PHASETHE FIRST PHASE2004-20062004-2006
VOLUNTARY BASEDVOLUNTARY BASED, PROFESSIONAL FORCE, PROFESSIONAL FORCE To establish a new structure, and new dislocation;To establish a new structure, and new dislocation; To decrease the number of the garrisons and facilities;To decrease the number of the garrisons and facilities; To establish the framework of the manning ratios;To establish the framework of the manning ratios; To start to equip NATO command and assigned units with state of arts To start to equip NATO command and assigned units with state of arts
military hardware in order to reach their full operational capability;military hardware in order to reach their full operational capability; To withdraw the obsolete, surplus assets from service, To withdraw the obsolete, surplus assets from service, To improve the working and living conditions.To improve the working and living conditions.
Characteristics of phasesCharacteristics of phases
Training and preparednessTraining and preparedness
To fully equip NATO command and assigned units with state of arts military To fully equip NATO command and assigned units with state of arts military hardware in order to reach their full operational capability.hardware in order to reach their full operational capability.The military units meet the Allied and National requirements in accordance The military units meet the Allied and National requirements in accordance with their readiness category.with their readiness category.
The goal of achievements The goal of achievements To stabilize manning level and the ratio within itTo stabilize manning level and the ratio within it..To reach average level of the Alliance in fields of: operational capability, To reach average level of the Alliance in fields of: operational capability, preparedness, preparedness, and and military hardware. military hardware.
THE SECOND PHASE
2007-2010
THE THIRD PHASE
2008-2013
AchievementsAchievements in 2004 in 2004 Structural changes – downsizing the forceStructural changes – downsizing the force TThe number of personnel he number of personnel has been rhas been reduceeduced (32 000 in peacetime)d (32 000 in peacetime) Quality of training has been improved – NCOs, contracted soldiersQuality of training has been improved – NCOs, contracted soldiers Acquisitions:Acquisitions:
• CIS assets, NBC protection assets, water purification equipmentCIS assets, NBC protection assets, water purification equipment• Vehicle program Vehicle program
Disposal/withdrawal of surplus military hardwareDisposal/withdrawal of surplus military hardware Infrastructural investmentsInfrastructural investments
• Garrison reconstructionsGarrison reconstructions• Housing improvements of personnelHousing improvements of personnel• NATINEADS facilitiesNATINEADS facilities
The last conscript soldier left the The last conscript soldier left the military servicemilitary service on November 03, ’04 on November 03, ’04!!
• 42 Billion HUF defense budget cut in 2004• Defense Review budgetary forecast for 2005 1.76 %, for 2006 and onwards 1.81% GDP share (Governmental resolution, communicated to the Alliance)• New (2004) forecast for 2005 1.27%, for 2006 1,24 % ... 2009 and onwards 1,41 GDP share• Shortfall is approx 1.17 Billion HUF (4.8 Million €) for ten years, an average 24.7 %
New Budgetary conditionsNew Budgetary conditions
Note: Billion HUF at 2004 prices level
Reasons: increasing national budget deficit,
inflation decreasing efforts
Consequence:new plan with new priorities
Managing the problemManaging the problem CConsequencesonsequences
• Impact on the Level of AmbitionImpact on the Level of Ambition• Impact on capabilities, force structureImpact on capabilities, force structure• Impact on NATO declared forces (FGs)Impact on NATO declared forces (FGs)• Drastic saving policy is neededDrastic saving policy is needed
ConclusionConclusion: : Need to review the Level of Ambition, Scenarios, Need to review the Level of Ambition, Scenarios, Concurrency, Capabilities to achieve, Force Proposals (Force Concurrency, Capabilities to achieve, Force Proposals (Force Goals), Prague Capability Commitment Goals), Prague Capability Commitment
(Done, DPQ correction prepared for Governmental approval)(Done, DPQ correction prepared for Governmental approval) PrioritiesPriorities
• NATO/EU declared forces, NATO/EU declared forces, ((NRFNRF/EU Battle Group)/EU Battle Group), PSOs, modernization , PSOs, modernization Balancing the resource-planBalancing the resource-plan:: „Review the Review”, rolling the „Review the Review”, rolling the
ten year plan, free up and reallocate resourcesten year plan, free up and reallocate resources• Cut personal costsCut personal costs• Reprioritize procurement programsReprioritize procurement programs• Cut infrastructure operational-maintenance and development fundsCut infrastructure operational-maintenance and development funds• Cut training Cut training costscosts• Further rationalize general operational-maintenance costsFurther rationalize general operational-maintenance costs• Reduce national development programs, international costsReduce national development programs, international costs• Review and reduce the force structure Review and reduce the force structure
OperationsOperationsabroadabroad
Specialization
For six month
Fifteen cspt helos
Four Gripens for Air-to-Ground tasks
MP trained inf battalion
Water purification coy
(- one platoon)
Bridgingbattalioncompany
One HRF BDE including CS/CSS
for six month
Two (1.5) battalion-sized deployment, max 1200 persons, A-B-C rotation
1000 persons until 2010
„Niche capabilities”
(Med, CIMIC, CBRN, SOF)
+
EITHEREITHER
OROR
One bn-sized deployment
Correction in the Correction in the Level of Level of AmbitionAmbition
ANDAND?
Two Medevac helos
Concurrency option from 201412001200 persons for enduring operations, or
max 6500 persons for six months
+ HUMINT, PSYOPS; SOF from 2010, DECON coy 2010
Twelve attack helos ?No modernization
orΣ 1200
The The new new force force structurestructure
The The new new force force structurestructureLand ForcesLand Forces
2 infantry brigades, of which one with CS, CSS elements (PD)
SOF battalion (from 2010) (D)
Reconnaissance battalion (D)
Engineer brigade, bridging and water purification capabilities included (PD)
NBC battalion (D) Tank battalion (2010)(ND) Logistic regiment (PD) Basic training centre (ND) Manouvre Training Centre
(ND)
Land ForcesLand Forces 2 infantry brigades, of
which one with CS, CSS elements (PD)
SOF battalion (from 2010) (D)
Reconnaissance battalion (D)
Engineer brigade, bridging and water purification capabilities included (PD)
NBC battalion (D) Tank battalion (2010)(ND) Logistic regiment (PD) Basic training centre (ND) Manouvre Training Centre
(ND)
Air ForceAir Force Air Base (MOB), all fix-
winged assets, GRIPEN (D) (MiG-29 until 2009) transport, training aircraft
Air Base (MOB) reserve Helicopter Base, Mi-24,
(ND) Mi-8/17 (PD), support and logistic elements
Ground Based Air Defense Brigade (SA-6+MISTRAL) C2, support and logistic elements (PD)
Air Surveillance Regiment (ND)
-CRC / AOC/ (ND)
-SOF (ND) Support battalion (2007)
(ND)
Air ForceAir Force Air Base (MOB), all fix-
winged assets, GRIPEN (D) (MiG-29 until 2009) transport, training aircraft
Air Base (MOB) reserve Helicopter Base, Mi-24,
(ND) Mi-8/17 (PD), support and logistic elements
Ground Based Air Defense Brigade (SA-6+MISTRAL) C2, support and logistic elements (PD)
Air Surveillance Regiment (ND)
-CRC / AOC/ (ND)
-SOF (ND) Support battalion (2007)
(ND)
Logistics• Central Logistic Base (ND)• Dangerous Materiel Supply
Group (ND)• Support Regiment (PD)• Explosive Ordnance Disposal
and Flotilla Regiment (D)• Movement Coordination
Centre• Printing Office (ND)• METEO Service (ND)• Mapping Service (ND)• CIMIC and PSYOPS Center
(D)• Equipment Surplus Storage
Facility (ND)
Logistics• Central Logistic Base (ND)• Dangerous Materiel Supply
Group (ND)• Support Regiment (PD)• Explosive Ordnance Disposal
and Flotilla Regiment (D)• Movement Coordination
Centre• Printing Office (ND)• METEO Service (ND)• Mapping Service (ND)• CIMIC and PSYOPS Center
(D)• Equipment Surplus Storage
Facility (ND)
Modular, multifunctional, flexibleIncrease number of deployable elements
Enhanced combat support (CS), combat service support (CSS)
??
D – deployable, PD – partially deployable, ND – non-deployable
??
Balancing measuresBalancing measures Review the force structure, further cut non-deployable elementsReview the force structure, further cut non-deployable elements::
• eliminate tank battalion in 2007, reestablish one light infantry battalioneliminate tank battalion in 2007, reestablish one light infantry battalion• close Taszár Air Base by 1 July 2005close Taszár Air Base by 1 July 2005• withdraw withdraw SA-6SA-6 GBAD from service GBAD from service • transfer Kecskemét Military Hospital to local authorities, retain Military transfer Kecskemét Military Hospital to local authorities, retain Military
Aviation Medical Research CenterAviation Medical Research Center• eliminate Central Aviation Repair Facility by 2008eliminate Central Aviation Repair Facility by 2008• overview JLC support battalion tasks and structureoverview JLC support battalion tasks and structure• transfer the Military Prison to the Ministry of Justicetransfer the Military Prison to the Ministry of Justice• overview signal requirements, streamline signal unitsoverview signal requirements, streamline signal units• close/hibernate war headquartersclose/hibernate war headquarters• overview brigade, battalion staff-structures, maintenance units, air overview brigade, battalion staff-structures, maintenance units, air
basesbases
New New characteristics of forcecharacteristics of force
PersonnelPersonnel20062006 20082008 20142014
UnitsUnits 25 00025 000 2233 000000 2233 550000
Integrated Integrated MoD and MoD and backgroundbackground
4 0004 000 4 0004 000 3 5003 500
ΣΣ 29 00029 000 27 00027 000 27 00027 000
III III
III6 months 6 months
6 months
FOCFOC
Deployed or deployable
IOCIOC
All volunteer, professional forces – new life in the barracksAll volunteer, professional forces – new life in the barracks New New ratioratio of personnel (officer/NCO, rank) of personnel (officer/NCO, rank) New career model – evaluation, competition, retain qualified personnelNew career model – evaluation, competition, retain qualified personnel New training conceptNew training concept Improved basic and advanced training, hire special skilled personnel Improved basic and advanced training, hire special skilled personnel from the labor marketfrom the labor market Contracting soldiers – basis for NCO corpsContracting soldiers – basis for NCO corps OutsourcingOutsourcing Improve living and working conditions, new garrison model – Improve living and working conditions, new garrison model – reconstruction programreconstruction program
What we might win?What we might win? By 2006, 6 well-manned, equipped, deployable, flexible, trained infantry By 2006, 6 well-manned, equipped, deployable, flexible, trained infantry
battalionsbattalions Modern fighters, 3D radars, modernized transport helicoptersModern fighters, 3D radars, modernized transport helicopters Specialization (water purification, bridging, military police capability)Specialization (water purification, bridging, military police capability) Meet important Allied requirements (NRF, FP-2004, PCCMeet important Allied requirements (NRF, FP-2004, PCC, EU, EU ) ) Further modernization (organizational, equipment)Further modernization (organizational, equipment)
Extended, enhanced fire powerExtended, enhanced fire power Improved deployabilityImproved deployability NATO sustainability requirementsNATO sustainability requirements
In line with NATO operational standardsIn line with NATO operational standards Based on existing capabilitiesBased on existing capabilities Decrease effects on personnel caused by relocations to another garrisonDecrease effects on personnel caused by relocations to another garrison Effective recruiting systemEffective recruiting system Balanced resource planBalanced resource plan in every year in every year
200002500030000
4000045000
35000
50000
6000065000
55000
7000075000800008500090000 Accession
Process Strategic Review
Defense Review
1998
1999
1995
1996
1997
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
H U N G A R I A N D E F E N S E F O R C E
1998
1999
1995
1996
1997
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
STRATEGIC CONCEPT
No general (nucl.) threat New security challenges Coop with former adversaries
Transformation – constant review Transformation – constant review processprocess
NEW STRATEGIC CONCEPT
Effective mil. capabilities
DCI (5 areas)
CRO
ISTAMBUL
PRAGUE
NFS, NCS, NRFPCC (4 areas)terrorism
Usability-availability, deployability
CAPABILITY TRANSFORMATIONNear-Term Operational Education
Near-Term Operational Education
New ratio of personnel
Deployability,Usability
New training concept
Specialized capabilities
All volunteer, professional
forces
Force modernization
„„To qualitatively contribute to the To qualitatively contribute to the Euro-Atlantic peace and security”Euro-Atlantic peace and security”
ThankThank youyou for your attention!for your attention!