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Victoria Oil and Gas Plc.West Medvezhye License AreaA Review of Selected Prospects
July 2006
• The West Medvezhye license• Prospective Horizons• Wells 103, 105, 107, 109• Probabilistic Analysis• Gross Prospective Resources
Agenda
The West Medvezhye The West Medvezhye License AreaLicense Area
• Located in the Nadym-Pur hydrocarbon province just east of the Ob Bay
• Just west of the Medvezhye field– A large Cenomanian (PK1) field– EUR 1.6 1012 m3 of dry gas
• Good quality 2D seismic data• Potential structural and
stratigraphic traps• Prospects exist in the Upper
Neocomian reservoirs, Neocomian Shelf Complex, Achimov clinoforms, and Jurassic reservoirs
Urengoi Field
Medvezhye Field
West Medvezhyе Field
West Medvezhye and the Surrounding AreaWest Medvezhye and the Surrounding Area
OBSKAYA
BAY
EAST-MEDVEZHIE
3
Medvezhiya
MEDVEZHIE
West Medvezhye and the Surrounding AreaWest Medvezhye and the Surrounding Area
Generalized View of West Siberian GeologyGeneralized View of West Siberian Geology
Shallow water – upper shelf
Prograding shelf edgeLowstand wedge –Incised Canyon
Bajenov – basinal facies
Base of slope – deep water
• Upper Neocomian - Upper Delta Facies• Lower Neocomian – Shelf Edge Facies• Achimov – Neocomian Base of Slope Fans• Jurassic – Continental Deposits
Prospective Horizons
Upper Neocomian ProspectsUpper Neocomian Prospects
• BN1, BN4, BN5, BN7, BN8• Thin, laterally variable shallow marine
sand and sand-silt deposits• 4-way closures• Northwest portion of the license
103
105
107
109
Neocomian Shelf ProspectsNeocomian Shelf Prospects
• BN9-3, BN10, BN11, BN12• Major risks: reservoir and trap• Requires a stratigraphic trapping
component to be successful
105
103
109
107
Achimov ProspectsAchimov Prospects
• Achimov BN11, BN12, and BN13• Lower slope sands and silts• Major risks: reservoir and trap• Stratigraphic and stratigraphic-
structural traps along strike or across 3-way structural closures
105
103
109
107
Jurassic ProspectsJurassic Prospects
• Several potential Jurassic reservoir segments
• Non-marine sandstones associated with channel features
• Stratigraphic and structural trapping along strike or across 3-way structural closures
• Reservoir quality rock will depend on natural fracturing for most prospects evaluated.
105
103
109
107
Proposed Locations (Wells 103, 105, 107, 109)Proposed Locations (Wells 103, 105, 107, 109)
.206
.238
.238
.180
Pg(decimal)
Gross Prospective Resources
Pg Adjusted Best Estimate
Unadjusted Best Estimate
3,621
3,323
3,112
Depth(m)
Totals
BN12 S
BN11 C
BN10 HE
Prospect
1,80535.9150.9
6,582131.3638.9
1,57531.4132.1
3,20264.0355.8
Condensate (103 bbl)
Gas(109ft3)
Gas(109ft3)
• BN-10 High Energy, BN-11 Central, BN-12 South: Shelf edge, outer delta sands. Up-dip pinchout
• Secondary targets: Achimov, Jurassic
• TD 3,900 meters
Well 103
BN9
BN10
103
BN11-0BN11
Achimov
Bajenov
Well 103W E
Achimov – deepwater fans
BN13BN12
W E
Well 103
• BN1,2,3,7,8 – Stacked upper delta sands, 4 way closure
• BN9-3 – Outer delta sand draped across structure
• TD 3,700 meters
Well 105
.290
.252
.295
Pg(decimal)
Gross Prospective Resources
Pg Adjusted Best Estimate
Unadjusted Best Estimate
3,080
2,800
Depth(m)
Totals
BN9-3
BN1,2,3,7,8
Prospect
6,397183.8633.9
94518.974.9
5,452164.9559.0
Condensate (103 bbl)
Gas(109ft3)
Gas(109ft3)
Top BN9
Bajenov
BN5
BN10
BN11-0
W EWell 105
Line 3588002
S N
Well 105
• BN10 NW – Amplitude Anomaly• Fan1 – Lowstand wedge, BN11-0
to BN10• Achimov 12 Central –
Stratigraphic trap into saddle• TD 3,700 meters
Well 107
9,289186.7.1581,185.63,310Fan 1
.165
.208
.180
Pg(decimal)
Gross Prospective Resources
Pg Adjusted Best Estimate
Unadjusted Best Estimate
3,540
3,210
Depth(m)
Total
Ach-12 Cent
BN10 NW
Prospect
12,408249.41,514.9
1,28625.8124.2
1,83336.9205.1
Condensate (103 bbl)
Gas(109ft3)
Gas(109ft3)
BN10 Structure
BN10 Northwest – Amplitude AnomalyWell 107
Dip Line 4004007
Bajenov
Fan 1
Bn 10 Hi Amp
Bn 9
Achimov
W E
Well 107
Strike Line 4004011S N
Fan 1
Ach Pinchout
Well 107
Bajenov Structure
• BN11 North – Up-dip Pinch-out• Achimov 11 North Anticline –
Broad sand fairway• TD 3,750 meters
Well 109
.183
.208
.158
Pg(decimal)
Gross Prospective Resources
Pg Adjusted Best Estimate
Unadjusted Best Estimate
3,650
3,310
Depth(m)
Total
Ach-11 N
BN11 N
Prospect
11,842237.51,300.6
6,670134.8648.6
5,172102.7652.0
Condensate (103 bbl)
Gas(109ft3)
Gas(109ft3)
101 102 31 36 63NW SE
109
Well 109
• Standard probabilistic methods• Probabilistic distributions of various parameters were
based on known data, analogy, and experience• 25 prospects evaluated• Each prospect was risked by the probability of geologic
success (Pg), but probability of economic success factors (Pe) and threshold economic field size (TEFS) were not considered.
• Utilized truncated normal or truncated lognormal distributions to model all variables
• Pg adjusted prospective resources are not comparable to contingent resources or reserves
Probabilistic Analysis
Prospective Gas Resources Prospective Condensate RProbability Probability
Best of Geologic Pg-Adjusted Pg-Adjusted Best of GeologicWell Estimate Success, Pg Best Estimate Best Estimate Estimate Success, Pg
Prospect (106ft3) (decimal) (106ft3) (106BOE) (103bbl) (decimal)
Well 103Bn10HiEnergy 355,799.1 0.180 64,043.8 10,674.0 17,790.8 0.180BN-11 Central 132,109.6 0.238 31,389.2 5,231.5 6,629.6 0.238Bn12South 150,945.4 0.238 35,864.6 5,977.4 7,598.2 0.238
Totals Well 103 638,854.1 0.206 131,297.6 21,882.9 32,018.7 0.206
Well 105Bn-9-3 West 74,918.0 0.252 18,879.3 3,146.6 3,751.1 0.252NW Closure 558,984.5 0.295 164,894.0 27,482.3 20,191.4 0.270
Totals Well 105 633,902.5 0.290 183,773.3 30,628.9 23,942.6 0.267
Well 107Bn10 NW 205,107.8 0.180 36,919.4 6,153.2 10,185.3 0.180Fan 1 1,185,640.0 0.158 186,738.3 31,123.1 58,976.0 0.158Achimov 12 Central 124,188.3 0.208 25,818.7 4,303.1 6,183.2 0.208
Totals Well 107 1,514,936.1 0.165 249,476.4 41,579.4 75,344.5 0.165
Well 109BN-11 North 652,010.8 0.158 102,691.7 17,115.3 32,839.5 0.158Achimov 11 North Anticline 648,578.6 0.208 134,839.5 22,473.3 32,084.5 0.208
Totals Well 109 1,300,589.4 0.183 237,531.2 39,588.6 64,924.0 0.182
UndesignatedBN12 NE 130,655.3 0.144 18,814.4 3,135.7 6,539.4 0.144Achimov 12 North Forked 262,484.4 0.135 35,435.4 5,905.9 13,062.6 0.135Fan 3 238,445.6 0.158 37,555.2 6,259.2 11,930.6 0.158Achimov 13 383,695.6 0.189 72,518.5 12,086.4 19,124.5 0.189
Totals Undesignated 1,015,280.9 0.162 164,323.5 27,387.2 50,657.1 0.162
SubtotalsPlanned Wells 4,088,282.1 0.196 802,078.5 133,679.8 196,229.8 0.190Undesignated Wells 1,015,280.9 0.162 164,323.5 27,387.2 50,657.1 0.162
Grand Totals 5,103,563.0 0.189 966,402.0 161,067.0 246,886.9 0.184
Notes: 1. Application of Pg does not equate prospective resources to contingent resources or reserves.2. Best estimates in this table are expected values (EV).3. Only EV's can be arithmetically summed; P90, P50, and P10 cannot be arithmetically summed.
4. Pg is defined as the probability of discovering reservoirs which flow petroleum at a measurable rate.5. Recovery efficiency is applied to prospective resources in this table.6. Pg has been rounded for presentation purposes.7. Gas is converted to oil equivalent using a factor of 6,000 cubic feet of gas per 1 barrel of oil equivalent.
Estimated Prospective Gas and Condensate Resources as of June 30, 2006
ProbabilityLow Median High Best of Geologic Pg-Adjusted
Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Success, Pg Best EstimateProspect (103bbl) (103bbl) (103bbl) (103bbl) (decimal) (103bbl)
Upper J Thick 379.9 1,295.1 3,492.3 1,671.7 0.132 220.0JF NW1 286.1 1,013.8 3,155.4 1,477.7 0.097 143.6JF NE 537.4 1,971.5 5,993.1 2,768.5 0.097 269.1JF ECent 372.3 1,376.9 4,495.0 1,975.6 0.097 192.0JF SCent 507.5 1,963.0 5,616.8 2,694.3 0.097 261.9JF SWCent 109.2 442.2 1,272.1 629.3 0.097 61.2JF SW 292.0 1,091.6 3,460.2 1,564.8 0.097 152.1JF NW2 288.3 1,069.2 3,239.1 1,482.4 0.097 144.1JF NCentral 697.7 2,567.5 7,389.0 3,486.4 0.097 338.9JF Central 883.3 3,406.4 9,759.7 4,693.2 0.097 456.2LJ Channel 483.6 1,640.8 4,334.5 2,165.8 0.132 285.1
Statistical Aggregate 14,244.0 22,749.8 37,309.5 24,609.7 0.103 2,524.2
Notes:1. Low, median, best, and high estimates follow the SPE/WPC/AAPG guidelines for prospective resources.
2. Application of Pg does not equate prospective resources to contingent resources or reserves.3. Low, median, best, and high estimates in this table are P90, P50, EV, and P10, respectively.
4. Only EV's can be arithmetically summed; P90, P50, and P10 cannot be arithmetically summed.
5. Pg is defined as the probability of discovering reservoirs which flow petroleum at a measurable rate.
6. Recovery efficiency is applied to prospective resources in this table.
7. Pg has been rounded for presentation purposes.
Estimated Prospective Oil Resources as of June 30, 2006