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DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

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Victoria Oil and Gas Plc. West Medvezhye License Area A Review of Selected Prospects July 2006
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Page 1: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Victoria Oil and Gas Plc.West Medvezhye License AreaA Review of Selected Prospects

July 2006

Page 2: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

• The West Medvezhye license• Prospective Horizons• Wells 103, 105, 107, 109• Probabilistic Analysis• Gross Prospective Resources

Agenda

Page 3: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

The West Medvezhye The West Medvezhye License AreaLicense Area

• Located in the Nadym-Pur hydrocarbon province just east of the Ob Bay

• Just west of the Medvezhye field– A large Cenomanian (PK1) field– EUR 1.6 1012 m3 of dry gas

• Good quality 2D seismic data• Potential structural and

stratigraphic traps• Prospects exist in the Upper

Neocomian reservoirs, Neocomian Shelf Complex, Achimov clinoforms, and Jurassic reservoirs

Page 4: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Urengoi Field

Medvezhye Field

West Medvezhyе Field

West Medvezhye and the Surrounding AreaWest Medvezhye and the Surrounding Area

Page 5: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

OBSKAYA

BAY

EAST-MEDVEZHIE

3

Medvezhiya

MEDVEZHIE

West Medvezhye and the Surrounding AreaWest Medvezhye and the Surrounding Area

Page 6: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Generalized View of West Siberian GeologyGeneralized View of West Siberian Geology

Shallow water – upper shelf

Prograding shelf edgeLowstand wedge –Incised Canyon

Bajenov – basinal facies

Base of slope – deep water

Page 7: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

• Upper Neocomian - Upper Delta Facies• Lower Neocomian – Shelf Edge Facies• Achimov – Neocomian Base of Slope Fans• Jurassic – Continental Deposits

Prospective Horizons

Page 8: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Upper Neocomian ProspectsUpper Neocomian Prospects

• BN1, BN4, BN5, BN7, BN8• Thin, laterally variable shallow marine

sand and sand-silt deposits• 4-way closures• Northwest portion of the license

103

105

107

109

Page 9: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Neocomian Shelf ProspectsNeocomian Shelf Prospects

• BN9-3, BN10, BN11, BN12• Major risks: reservoir and trap• Requires a stratigraphic trapping

component to be successful

105

103

109

107

Page 10: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Achimov ProspectsAchimov Prospects

• Achimov BN11, BN12, and BN13• Lower slope sands and silts• Major risks: reservoir and trap• Stratigraphic and stratigraphic-

structural traps along strike or across 3-way structural closures

105

103

109

107

Page 11: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Jurassic ProspectsJurassic Prospects

• Several potential Jurassic reservoir segments

• Non-marine sandstones associated with channel features

• Stratigraphic and structural trapping along strike or across 3-way structural closures

• Reservoir quality rock will depend on natural fracturing for most prospects evaluated.

105

103

109

107

Page 12: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Proposed Locations (Wells 103, 105, 107, 109)Proposed Locations (Wells 103, 105, 107, 109)

Page 13: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

.206

.238

.238

.180

Pg(decimal)

Gross Prospective Resources

Pg Adjusted Best Estimate

Unadjusted Best Estimate

3,621

3,323

3,112

Depth(m)

Totals

BN12 S

BN11 C

BN10 HE

Prospect

1,80535.9150.9

6,582131.3638.9

1,57531.4132.1

3,20264.0355.8

Condensate (103 bbl)

Gas(109ft3)

Gas(109ft3)

• BN-10 High Energy, BN-11 Central, BN-12 South: Shelf edge, outer delta sands. Up-dip pinchout

• Secondary targets: Achimov, Jurassic

• TD 3,900 meters

Well 103

Page 14: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

BN9

BN10

103

BN11-0BN11

Achimov

Bajenov

Well 103W E

Page 15: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Achimov – deepwater fans

BN13BN12

W E

Well 103

Page 16: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

• BN1,2,3,7,8 – Stacked upper delta sands, 4 way closure

• BN9-3 – Outer delta sand draped across structure

• TD 3,700 meters

Well 105

.290

.252

.295

Pg(decimal)

Gross Prospective Resources

Pg Adjusted Best Estimate

Unadjusted Best Estimate

3,080

2,800

Depth(m)

Totals

BN9-3

BN1,2,3,7,8

Prospect

6,397183.8633.9

94518.974.9

5,452164.9559.0

Condensate (103 bbl)

Gas(109ft3)

Gas(109ft3)

Top BN9

Page 17: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Bajenov

BN5

BN10

BN11-0

W EWell 105

Line 3588002

Page 18: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

S N

Well 105

Page 19: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

• BN10 NW – Amplitude Anomaly• Fan1 – Lowstand wedge, BN11-0

to BN10• Achimov 12 Central –

Stratigraphic trap into saddle• TD 3,700 meters

Well 107

9,289186.7.1581,185.63,310Fan 1

.165

.208

.180

Pg(decimal)

Gross Prospective Resources

Pg Adjusted Best Estimate

Unadjusted Best Estimate

3,540

3,210

Depth(m)

Total

Ach-12 Cent

BN10 NW

Prospect

12,408249.41,514.9

1,28625.8124.2

1,83336.9205.1

Condensate (103 bbl)

Gas(109ft3)

Gas(109ft3)

BN10 Structure

Page 20: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

BN10 Northwest – Amplitude AnomalyWell 107

Page 21: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Dip Line 4004007

Bajenov

Fan 1

Bn 10 Hi Amp

Bn 9

Achimov

W E

Well 107

Page 22: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Strike Line 4004011S N

Fan 1

Ach Pinchout

Well 107

Page 23: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Bajenov Structure

• BN11 North – Up-dip Pinch-out• Achimov 11 North Anticline –

Broad sand fairway• TD 3,750 meters

Well 109

.183

.208

.158

Pg(decimal)

Gross Prospective Resources

Pg Adjusted Best Estimate

Unadjusted Best Estimate

3,650

3,310

Depth(m)

Total

Ach-11 N

BN11 N

Prospect

11,842237.51,300.6

6,670134.8648.6

5,172102.7652.0

Condensate (103 bbl)

Gas(109ft3)

Gas(109ft3)

Page 24: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

101 102 31 36 63NW SE

109

Well 109

Page 25: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

• Standard probabilistic methods• Probabilistic distributions of various parameters were

based on known data, analogy, and experience• 25 prospects evaluated• Each prospect was risked by the probability of geologic

success (Pg), but probability of economic success factors (Pe) and threshold economic field size (TEFS) were not considered.

• Utilized truncated normal or truncated lognormal distributions to model all variables

• Pg adjusted prospective resources are not comparable to contingent resources or reserves

Probabilistic Analysis

Page 26: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

Prospective Gas Resources Prospective Condensate RProbability Probability

Best of Geologic Pg-Adjusted Pg-Adjusted Best of GeologicWell Estimate Success, Pg Best Estimate Best Estimate Estimate Success, Pg

Prospect (106ft3) (decimal) (106ft3) (106BOE) (103bbl) (decimal)

Well 103Bn10HiEnergy 355,799.1 0.180 64,043.8 10,674.0 17,790.8 0.180BN-11 Central 132,109.6 0.238 31,389.2 5,231.5 6,629.6 0.238Bn12South 150,945.4 0.238 35,864.6 5,977.4 7,598.2 0.238

Totals Well 103 638,854.1 0.206 131,297.6 21,882.9 32,018.7 0.206

Well 105Bn-9-3 West 74,918.0 0.252 18,879.3 3,146.6 3,751.1 0.252NW Closure 558,984.5 0.295 164,894.0 27,482.3 20,191.4 0.270

Totals Well 105 633,902.5 0.290 183,773.3 30,628.9 23,942.6 0.267

Well 107Bn10 NW 205,107.8 0.180 36,919.4 6,153.2 10,185.3 0.180Fan 1 1,185,640.0 0.158 186,738.3 31,123.1 58,976.0 0.158Achimov 12 Central 124,188.3 0.208 25,818.7 4,303.1 6,183.2 0.208

Totals Well 107 1,514,936.1 0.165 249,476.4 41,579.4 75,344.5 0.165

Well 109BN-11 North 652,010.8 0.158 102,691.7 17,115.3 32,839.5 0.158Achimov 11 North Anticline 648,578.6 0.208 134,839.5 22,473.3 32,084.5 0.208

Totals Well 109 1,300,589.4 0.183 237,531.2 39,588.6 64,924.0 0.182

UndesignatedBN12 NE 130,655.3 0.144 18,814.4 3,135.7 6,539.4 0.144Achimov 12 North Forked 262,484.4 0.135 35,435.4 5,905.9 13,062.6 0.135Fan 3 238,445.6 0.158 37,555.2 6,259.2 11,930.6 0.158Achimov 13 383,695.6 0.189 72,518.5 12,086.4 19,124.5 0.189

Totals Undesignated 1,015,280.9 0.162 164,323.5 27,387.2 50,657.1 0.162

SubtotalsPlanned Wells 4,088,282.1 0.196 802,078.5 133,679.8 196,229.8 0.190Undesignated Wells 1,015,280.9 0.162 164,323.5 27,387.2 50,657.1 0.162

Grand Totals 5,103,563.0 0.189 966,402.0 161,067.0 246,886.9 0.184

Notes: 1. Application of Pg does not equate prospective resources to contingent resources or reserves.2. Best estimates in this table are expected values (EV).3. Only EV's can be arithmetically summed; P90, P50, and P10 cannot be arithmetically summed.

4. Pg is defined as the probability of discovering reservoirs which flow petroleum at a measurable rate.5. Recovery efficiency is applied to prospective resources in this table.6. Pg has been rounded for presentation purposes.7. Gas is converted to oil equivalent using a factor of 6,000 cubic feet of gas per 1 barrel of oil equivalent.

Estimated Prospective Gas and Condensate Resources as of June 30, 2006

Page 27: DeGolyer and MacNaughton Report - 2006/07

ProbabilityLow Median High Best of Geologic Pg-Adjusted

Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Success, Pg Best EstimateProspect (103bbl) (103bbl) (103bbl) (103bbl) (decimal) (103bbl)

Upper J Thick 379.9 1,295.1 3,492.3 1,671.7 0.132 220.0JF NW1 286.1 1,013.8 3,155.4 1,477.7 0.097 143.6JF NE 537.4 1,971.5 5,993.1 2,768.5 0.097 269.1JF ECent 372.3 1,376.9 4,495.0 1,975.6 0.097 192.0JF SCent 507.5 1,963.0 5,616.8 2,694.3 0.097 261.9JF SWCent 109.2 442.2 1,272.1 629.3 0.097 61.2JF SW 292.0 1,091.6 3,460.2 1,564.8 0.097 152.1JF NW2 288.3 1,069.2 3,239.1 1,482.4 0.097 144.1JF NCentral 697.7 2,567.5 7,389.0 3,486.4 0.097 338.9JF Central 883.3 3,406.4 9,759.7 4,693.2 0.097 456.2LJ Channel 483.6 1,640.8 4,334.5 2,165.8 0.132 285.1

Statistical Aggregate 14,244.0 22,749.8 37,309.5 24,609.7 0.103 2,524.2

Notes:1. Low, median, best, and high estimates follow the SPE/WPC/AAPG guidelines for prospective resources.

2. Application of Pg does not equate prospective resources to contingent resources or reserves.3. Low, median, best, and high estimates in this table are P90, P50, EV, and P10, respectively.

4. Only EV's can be arithmetically summed; P90, P50, and P10 cannot be arithmetically summed.

5. Pg is defined as the probability of discovering reservoirs which flow petroleum at a measurable rate.

6. Recovery efficiency is applied to prospective resources in this table.

7. Pg has been rounded for presentation purposes.

Estimated Prospective Oil Resources as of June 30, 2006


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