Date post: | 30-May-2015 |
Category: |
Technology |
Upload: | tu-delft-climate-institute |
View: | 369 times |
Download: | 0 times |
____ __ ____ _____ ____ ______ _____ _____ ____ _____ _____ _____ ____ _____
Click to edit Master text stylesSecond levelThird level
Fourth levelFifth level
Click to edit Master title style
• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level• Third level
– Fourth level» Fifth level
10/18/13 1
Review editor chapter 13 WGI
Roderik van de Wal, Utrecht University
Sea Level Change in AR5
____ __ ____ _____ ____ ______ _____ _____ ____ _____ _____ _____ ____ _____
Click to edit Master text stylesSecond levelThird level
Fourth levelFifth level
Click to edit Master title style
• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level• Third level
– Fourth level» Fifth level
10/18/13 2
What drives sea level changes?
Figure 13.1 AR5
____ __ ____ _____ ____ ______ _____ _____ ____ _____ _____ _____ ____ _____
Click to edit Master text stylesSecond levelThird level
Fourth levelFifth level
Click to edit Master title style
• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level• Third level
– Fourth level» Fifth level
10/18/13 3
Antarctica+Greenland
AR4
Antarctica more constrained, Greenland decay rate fasterShepherd et al 2012
AntarcticaGreenland
____ __ ____ _____ ____ ______ _____ _____ ____ _____ _____ _____ ____ _____
Click to edit Master text stylesSecond levelThird level
Fourth levelFifth level
Click to edit Master title style
• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level• Third level
– Fourth level» Fifth level
10/18/13 4
Cryospheric contribution
Extended version of Fig 4.17 AR5
____ __ ____ _____ ____ ______ _____ _____ ____ _____ _____ _____ ____ _____
Click to edit Master text stylesSecond levelThird level
Fourth levelFifth level
Click to edit Master title style
• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level• Third level
– Fourth level» Fifth level
10/18/13 5
Future projections
Figure 7b, SPM
+40-50%
____ __ ____ _____ ____ ______ _____ _____ ____ _____ _____ _____ ____ _____
Click to edit Master text stylesSecond levelThird level
Fourth levelFifth level
Click to edit Master title style
• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level• Third level
– Fourth level» Fifth level
10/18/13 6
AR5 versus AR4
So for +4K 1/3 caused by increased response; 2/3 by higher offset! (commitment) ice sheets..
____ __ ____ _____ ____ ______ _____ _____ ____ _____ _____ _____ ____ _____
Click to edit Master text stylesSecond levelThird level
Fourth levelFifth level
Click to edit Master title style
• Click to edit Master text styles– Second level• Third level
– Fourth level» Fifth level
10/18/13 7
Concluding remarks-Sea level recent passed reasonably explained
-Sea level response per degree increased
-Sea level regional variable
-Sea level projections higher
Unknowns-coastal processes-temporal variability-low probability issues