Deloitte’s 2013 Annual Holiday Survey Naughty or nice? How ......Holiday shopping: what, when,...

Deloitte’s 2013 Annual Holiday SurveyNaughty or nice? How will retail sales fare this holiday season?

October 2013

2013 holiday survey themes

Economic outlook and spending

Holiday shopping:what, when, where, how

Technology and social media influence

Online vs. in-store/shopping locally

• There is a rise in confidence in 2013 versus 2012 — on the economy, household finances and job security.

• This more positive outlook is leading to higher expected gift buying and holiday spending in general. Total holiday spending is expected to increase 12% over 2012.

• Additionally, the expected number of gifts has leveled off after years of decline.

• Gift cards/certificates and clothing remain the top gift ideas, yet both categories are dropping in popularity.

• Respondents are most likely to want to receive cash this holiday season.

• Top locations shopped are Internet (No. 1 for first time in survey’s history) and discount/value dept. stores.

• Nearly four in 10 will do the majority of their holiday shopping in December or later

• Smartphone ownership has grown nearly 20% since 2011.

• 68% of smartphone owners and 63% of tablet owners will use their devices to help them shop this holiday season.

• Smartphones will be used more for finding store locations and tablets more to shop/browse.

• Almost half (45%) will use social media to assist in shopping (no change from 2012).

• Nearly six in 10 expect to use self-help technologies in-store when holiday shopping — price checkers and self-checkout most commonly used.

• Consumers show more willingness to stay with the same retailer if a product is out-of-stock in-store, whereas they are less loyal if the product is unavailable at the store’s website.

• Shopping “local” will be done by 66% of respondents, mostly to support the local economy or to find unique gifts.

Copyright © 2013 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

Economic outlook and spending

Copyright © 2013 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.3

82%

66% 64% 67%71% 68% 71%

59%

41%

51%

62% 59%63%

71%

18%

34%36% 33%

29% 32% 29%

41%

59%

49%

38%42%

37%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Spend more/same Spend less

Consumers’ expected holiday spending change from prior year

Consumers’ intentions to spend “less” are at the lowest levels in seven years

Recession

Recession

8% 11% 10% 13% 13%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Spend more


2%

32%

16%

50%

3%

49%

11%

37%

4%

54%

10%

32%

Healthy Weak/slowlyrecovering from a

recession

Weak, and headingback into recession

Still in a recession; there’s been no

recovery

2011 2012 2013

Opinion of current economy

Optimism is rising, as fewer respondents feel we are “still in a recession”


Consumers’ expectations for holiday spending on:

Increased confidence is resulting in higher expected holiday spending; predicted gift spending alone is +9%

2012 2013 % change

Gifts $386 $421 9%

Socializing away from home $242 $270 12%

Entertaining at home $149 $159 7%

Non-gift clothing for family or yourself $119 $136 14%

Home/holiday furnishings $65 $81 25%

Any other holiday-related spending not listed above $74 $87 18%

Total $1,035 $1,154 12%


2013 household income: 2012 household income:

<$100K $100K+ Difference <$100K $100K+ Difference

Gifts $319 $771 +$452 $298 $741 +$443

Socializing away from home $170 $612 +442 $168 $538 +$370

Entertaining at home $128 $264 +$136 $118 $274 +$156

Non-gift clothing for family $109 $228 +$119 $98 $202 +$104

Home/holiday furnishings $59 $157 +$98 $51 $119 +$68

Any other $69 $151 +$82 $57 $145 +$88

Total $854 $2,183 +$1,329 $790 $2,019 +$1,229

Consumers’ expectations for holiday spending:

Both wealthy and non-wealthy households are predicting higher spending amounts versus last year


Consumers’ expectations for holiday spending on:

Smartphone users and omni-channel shoppers (mobile, store, Internet) have even higher spending expectations

Respondents that own and will use smartphones to

assist in holiday shopping

Will not use smartphone to assist in holiday shopping and all

non-smartphone owners

Gifts $480 $378

Total* $1,494 $910

Shop mobile, store, Internet combined Shop stores only

Gifts $558 $356

Total* $1,643 $934

Total includes the following categories: “gifts,” “socializing away from home,” “entertaining at home,” “non-gift clothing for family or yourself,” “home/holiday furnishings,” and “any other holiday-related spending not listed.”


22.023.1

21.5

18.216.8

14.712.8 12.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Average number of gifts, including gift cards, expected to be purchased

The decrease in expected number of gifts given has leveled off

• 43% will purchase gift cards• 34% who plan to buy gift cards/certificates plan to buy digital gift cards

Holiday shopping:what, when, where and how


43%

42%

30%

27%

27%

26%

24%

19%

18%

16%

Gift cards or gift certificates

Clothing

Books

Money (Cash or check)

Games, Toys, Dolls, etc.

Food/Liquor

CDs or DVDs or Blu Rays formovies or music

Cosmetics/fragrances/health &beauty aids

Jewelry

Games - Computer/video only

Percentage of consumers surveyed who expect to purchase each item this holiday season

Gift cards and clothing are the top gifts consumers expect to purchase, however both have seen a drop

Top 10 gifts consumers plan on buying

*Electronics category is comprised of home/personal/car electronics, computers and tablets, game consoles and video games

Electronics (NET)*

34%

-9 vs. 2012

+4 vs. 2012

-4 vs. 2012

• Gift cards still at the top, but down to 43% from a high of 69% in 2007

• Cash ranks No. 1 as the gift respondents would like to receive at 37%


27%

35%

21%

6%

11%

None

1-25%

26-50%

51-75%

Over 75%

Coupons/promotions will play an important role in influencing holiday spending, more so among higher income households

What percentage of your total holiday spending will be influenced by any coupons and promotional offers?

73% will be influenced by

coupons/promotional offers

Income

<$100K $100K+

71% 79%


41%44%47%57%

49%51%49%

66%

Use more store couponsBuy more lower-priced itemsGo online more - to find betterprices, coupons, deals, etc.

Buy more items "on sale"

How will these respondents change to save money?

57% expect to change how they shop to save money (vs. 63% in 2012); the top strategy of buying on sale will be less frequent

-9 vs. 2012 -2 vs. 2012 -7 vs. 2012 -8 vs. 2012

2012 2013

Responses under 41% not shown


Retail offerings that respondents will take advantage of this holiday season

Consumers are looking for convenience this year —which might mean free shipping, free returns, price matching and extended store hours

71%

47%

44%

36%

35%

13%

Free shipping

Free returns

Price matching

Extended holiday hours (openearly/close late)

Order online/pick up in-store

Free layaway


Percentage of respondents who expect to shop at each venue this holiday season

For the first time, “Internet” ranks No. 1 on the list of venues respondents expect to shop; “discount/value department stores” show the biggest drop among venues

47%

44%

28%

21%

21%

20%

20%

20%

17%

15%

14%

14%

13%

13%

13%

Internet (including auction sites)

Discount/Value department stores

Traditional department stores

Electronics/Office supply/Computer stores

Off-price stores

Warehouse membership clubs

Toy stores

Outlet stores/centers

Restaurants/fast food establishments

Home improvement stores

Sporting goods stores

Low-price dollar stores

Specialty clothing stores

Drug stores

Supermarkets

-7 vs. 2012

* Among those who expect to shop at venuesResponses under 13% not shown

4.5 — average number of venues consumers expect to shop this year (similar to 2012)*


Percentage of respondents who expect to shop at each venue this holiday season

In 2013, “Internet” surpasses “discount/value department stores” on the list of venues respondents expect to shop

59% 58%

48%51%

44%42%

35%

44% 45%

47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Discount/Value department stores Internet (including auction sites)

-7 vs. 2012


4%

24%

34%

20%18%

None 1-25% 26-50% 51-75% Over 75%

Among the 47% shopping on the Internet — What percentage of your total holiday budget do you expect to spend online?

Among those shopping online, 38% say they will spend the majority online

38% will spendmajority online

Among those who expect to spend online


6%8%

15%11%

6%

17%

32%

5%

Have alreadystarted

October EarlyNovember

Black Friday Cyber Monday LateNovember

December January

Which one of these days or months do you expect to do the majorityof your holiday shopping this year?

Nearly four in 10 will do the majority of their holiday shopping in December or later, but three in 10 will do it before Thanksgiving

30% 33% 37%

Early Late November December orLater+5 vs. 2012

45% don't rely on shopping on Black Friday or Cyber Monday as much as they used to for holiday shopping

Technology and social media influence

42%50%

61%

Own smartphone

2011 2012 2013

Smartphone ownership increases nearly 20 percentage points in two years

+ 19 vs. 2011+ 11 vs. 2012



Among those who will use a smartphone for holiday shopping —In which of the following ways will you use it?

Among smartphone owners, nearly seven in 10 (68%) will use their device for holiday shopping — and for many uses


56%

54%

47%

45%

44%

40%

36%

32%

31%

29%

24%

Get store locations

Check/compare prices

Get product information

Shop/browse online

Read reviews

Check product availability in a storeor website

Get/use discounts, coupons, salesinformation

Scan product barcodes to find moreproduct information

Make a purchase online

Access social networks

Get text messages or exclusivedeals from retailers


Among those who will use a tablet for holiday shopping —In which of the following ways will you use it?

Almost two-thirds (63%) of tablet owners plan to use it for holiday shopping


69%

58%

58%

57%

52%

47%

44%

30%

30%

Shop/browse online

Check/compare prices

Get product information

Read reviews

Make a purchase online

Check product availability in a storeor website

Get store locations

Access social networks

Get/use discounts, coupons, salesinformation

Total own a tablet: 38%

Nearly half of all respondents will use social media to assist with their holiday shopping

Of those planning to use social media for holiday shopping: Why?

Research gift ideas 48%

To find discounts 44%

Read reviews, “likes”, or recommendations 40%

Browse products 37%

Check what gifts family/friends want 35%

Post comments/share links 25%

Go to retailer’s fan page 21%

Will social media be part of your holiday shopping process?

YES = 45%No change vs. 2012

Copyright © 2013 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

Online vs. in-store/shopping locally


Which aspects lead you to…

“Free shipping” more likely to lead respondents to online shopping, whereas “ease of returns” more likely to lead to in-store shopping

15%

20%

21%

51%

51%

52%

57%

66%

56%

60%

38%

32%

33%

30%

26%

21%

29%

20%

41%

18%

16%

17%

17%

13%

Assistance (either online or in-store)

Loyalty programs

Ease of returns

Low prices

Speed of shopping or checkout

Wide merchandise selection

Ease of shopping

Free shipping

More Likely to Lead to Online Shopping No Difference More Likely to Lead to In-Store Shopping


Consumers’ expectations of interactions with store associates

Sales associates should be knowledgeable about products and offers … however more consumers feel they are actually better connected than sales associates

65%

62%

54%

44%

35%

25%

Be knowledgeable about products

Help me check out quickly

Let me know about discounts/offers

Greet me promptly with awelcoming attitude

Has the ability to match any otherretailer's prices

Assist me with finding gifts


In general, do you feel you are better connected to consumer information, including coupons, competitive pricing, and product availability than store associates are?

YES = 59%


During the holidays, more likely to purchase in-store from a retailer offering …

While in a store, a knowledgeable associate can make the difference

54%

22%

22%

19%

18%

14%

Knowledgeable store associates

Self-service/mobile checkout

Barcode scanners to confirmproduct prices and features

Personalized coupons/offersthrough my smartphone

Personalized coupons/offersthrough social networking sites

WiFi access for comparisonshopping

• 37% prefer shopping in the physical store rather than online for holiday products

• 32% feel store associates can provide customers a better shopping experience when equipped with the latest mobile technologies


60%

57%

17%

16%

13%

12%

11%

10%

9%

Price checker

Self-checkout payment lanes

Retailer's mobile app

Information kiosks (e.g., access to theretailer's website)

Mobile payment (e.g., paying via aphone, tablet or laptop)

Handheld product scanner

Digital signage

Video screens demonstrating products

Electronic shelf labeling

Among those planning to use self-help technologies in-store, here is what they plan to use

If using a self-help technology in-store, “price checkers” and “self-checkout” are the ones most expect to use

Will use self-help technologies: 58%


If the product wasn’t available on a store’s website, which would you most likely do first?

If a product is not available on the store’s website, only a few will stay with that retailer — three-quarters would go to another store, either online or in-person

34%

34%

9%

13%

4%

Go online to another store's website

Go online to another website (search engines,price comparison sites)

Go to another store in-person (differentchain/name)

Go to same store in-person (same chain/name)

Would not continue shopping for the product

77%Go elsewhere


If the product wasn’t available in the store, which would you most likely do first?

If a product is not available in-store, almost half will go somewhere else, especially males and younger consumers

23%

24%

20%

18%

7%

4%

Go to another location of the same store (samechain/name) or ask a store associate if another

location has the item

Go online to the same store's website

Go to another store (different chain/name)

Go online to another website (search engines, pricecomparison sites)

Go online to another store's website

Would not continue shopping for the product

47%Store

Loyalty

45%No Store Loyalty

Gender Age

Male Female 18–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55+

No Store Loyalty 51% 40 50% 47% 42% 44% 43%


60%

53%

44%

39%

30%

30%

26%

19%

18%

To support the local economy

To find one-of-a-kind gifts

It is more convenient

Excellent customer service

It is critical to the overall health of theU.S. economy

Greater loyalty to the local retail store

Special deals or offers from theselocal retailers

Personal relationship with store owner

Free services (i.e., gift wrapping)

Will you shop at local retail stores*?

Among the two-thirds who “shop local,” the reasons center around supporting the local economy and finding unique gifts

For what reasons will you shop at local retail stores?

Average percentage of total holiday budget spent on local stores 34%

YES = 66%*Local retail stores are defined as small businesses, independent retailers, or boutique shops which are not part of national chains.

The survey was commissioned by Deloitte and conducted online by an independent research company between September 13–23, 2013. The survey polled a national sample of 5,018 consumers and has a margin of error for the entire sample of plus or minus one percentage point.

About the survey

About DeloitteDeloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.

Copyright © 2013 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.36 USC 220506Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

This presentation contains general information only and is based on the experiences and research of Deloitte practitioners. Deloitte is not, by means of this presentation, rendering business, financial, investment, or other professional advice or services. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. Deloitte, its affiliates, and related entities shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this presentation.

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Deloitte’s 2013 Annual Holiday Survey Naughty or nice? How ......Holiday shopping: what, when,...

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