Other Changes for the Program of Implementation (Issue 11)SWRCB D-1641 Workshop

March 2005

DeltakeepeDeltakeeperrby

Dan Bowman Odenweller

Fishery Biologist

“(f) “Beneficial uses” of the waters of the state that maybe protected against quality degradation include, but are

not limited to, domestic, municipal, agricultural andindustrial supply; power generation; recreation; aesthetic

enjoyment; navigation; and preservation and enhancementof fish, wildlife, and other aquatic resources or preserves.”

PORTER-COLOGNE WATER

QUALITY CONTROL ACT

Not limited to “native fish,” “listed fish,” or “species of special concern.” Charge is “preservation and enhancement of fish,

wildlife and other aquatic resources or preserves.”

Significant Areas of Concern Include

• Apparent decline in zooplankton, herbivores and piscivores in portions of the Delta,

• the lack of monitoring adequate to the task of evaluating the apparent declines, and

• analysis paralysis, leading to deferred action (while CVP-SWP exports increase).

Apparent Decline in Productivity

• Striped Bass Index (SBI) has been below 10 since 1996, both the 2004 SBI and the Fall Midwater Trawl (FMWT) index the lowest on record.

• Other long term indices of striped bass also show a similar trend:– San Francisco Bay Study Midwater Trawl

(SFBS - MWT); second lowest on record– SFBS Otter Trawl (SFBS - OT); same

2nd

lowest

2nd

lowestlowest lowest 2004

3rd lowest3rd lowest3rd lowest3rd lowest2003

lowestlowest2nd

lowestNo index2002

SFBS

(OT)

SFBS

(MWT)FMWTTNS

Rank of relative abundance indices for age-0 striped bass from DFG’s Long Term

Monitoring surveys

Slide courtesy Kelly Souza, CDFG

Striped Bass Index(Linear Plot)

y = -26.911Ln(x) + 114.16

R2 = 0.414

y = -1.8964x + 80.228

R2 = 0.5823

-20

0

20

40

60

80

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140

1958

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1998

2000

2002

2004

Year

Str

ipe

d B

ass

In

de

x

SB YOY

Log. (SB YOY)

Linear (SB YOY)

Striped bass

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Year

Abu

ndan

ce in

dex

(thou

sand

s)

20,038

2004 = 53

Striped Bass Indicesare down at historic

lows.

Other species in decline include:

• San Joaquin River Fall Run Chinook Salmon, a steady decline?

– Despite the cyclic pattern, both peaks, the low and the high, show declining trends.

• Salmonids are present throughout the year, making “homestream” flow necessary throughout the year.

San Joaquin River Fall Run Chinook Salmon Escapement(Merced, Tuolumne, and Stanislaus River, and MRFF)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

900001

95

2

19

54

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56

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62

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00

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20

04

Year

Nu

mb

er

MRFF

Stan

Tuol

Merced

Central Valley Chinook Salmon and SteelheadSacramento - San Joaquin River Systems

= Adult Migration =Young of the Year Emigration

= Adult Spawning = Yearling emigration

Fall-run July August September October November December January February March April May June July

Adult fall-run migrate into the river system from July through December and spawn from early October through late December. Peak spawning occurs in October and November, although the timing of runs varies from stream to stream.Egg incubation occurs from October through March, and juvenile rearing and smolt emigration occurs from January through June. Although the majority of young Fall-Run chinook salmon migrate to the ocean during the first few months following emergence, a small number may remain in fresh water and migrate as yearlings. *

Late-fall-runJuly August September October November December January February March April May June July

Late-fall-run chinook migrate into the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers from mid-October through mid-April and overlaps the fall-run chinook spawning migration of mid-October through December. Late-fall-run chinook spawn from January through mid-April. Incubation occurs from January through June, and rearing and emigration of fry and smolts occurs from April through mid-October. Significant emigration of naturally produced juvenile late-fall-run occurs through November and December, and possibly January. Emigration of hatchery produced late-fall-run juveniles occurs well into February. *

Spring-run PEAKJuly August September October November December January February March April May June July

Spring-run chinook leave the ocean and begin upstream migration enter the Sacramento river from late January / early February through August; enter natal tributaries mid-Feb thru July. Many early arriving adults hold in cool water habitats through summermid-August through October with the peak in September. Incubation occurs from mid-August through mid-March, emigration of fry and smolts beginning in November and can continue through May. Migration of yearlings from upper tributary watersheds occurs in

* Information from: Restoring Central Valley Streams: A PLAN FOR ACTION, Department of Fish and Game, 129 pp., December 1993 ** Information from: Guidelines for Recommended Time Periods for In-Channel Activities for Winter-run Chinook Salmon *** National Marine Fisheries Service proposed Recovery Plan for The Sacramento River Winter-run Chinook Salmon, August 1997**** Report to The Fish and Game Commission: A Status Review of The Spring Run Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawtscha) In the Sacramento River Drainage. Candidate Species Status Report 98-01, June 1998, CDFG

Adult Migration Incubation & Emergence

Adult Spawning Rearing

CV SteelheadJanuary February March April May June July

McEwan, D.R. Central Valley steelhead. in Proceedings of the Central Valley Salmonid Symposium, 1997. R. Brown, ed., Calif. Dept. of Fish and Game Fish Bull. accepted for publication.

Central Valley Chinook Salmon and SteelheadSacramento - San Joaquin River Systems

August September October November December

Adult fall-run migrate into the river system from July through December and spawn from early October through late December. Peak spawning occurs in October and November, although the timing of runs varies from stream to stream.Egg incubation occurs from October through March, and juvenile rearing and smolt emigration occurs from January through June. Although the majority of young Fall-Run chinook salmon migrate to the ocean during the first few months following emergence,

August September October November December

Late-fall-run chinook migrate into the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers from mid-October through mid-April and overlaps the fall-run chinook spawning migration of mid-October through December. Late-fall-run chinook spawn from January through mid-April. Incubation occurs from January through June, and rearing and emigration of fry and smolts occurs from April through mid-October. Significant emigration of naturally produced juvenile late-fall-run occurs through November and

August September October November December January February March April May June

Spring-run chinook leave the ocean and begin upstream migration enter the Sacramento river from late January / early February through August; enter natal tributaries mid-Feb thru July. Many early arriving adults hold in cool water habitats through summermid-August through October with the peak in September. Incubation occurs from mid-August through mid-March, emigration of fry and smolts beginning in November and can continue through May. Migration of yearlings from upper tributary watersheds occurs in

**** Report to The Fish and Game Commission: A Status Review of The Spring Run Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawtscha) In the Sacramento River Drainage. Candidate Species Status Report 98-01, June 1998, CDFG

Juvenile Emigration

August September October November December

Where is the period that does not concern us, as related to the salmonid flow needs?

When can we safely recirculate Sacramento River water in the San Joaquin River system, without disrupting either: a) Juvenile outmigrant imprinting, and/or b) adult migration cues?

Other species, continued

• Delta Smelt, that showed the lowest abundance on record in the 2004 FMWT. – About five years ago we were seriously

considering a petition to reduce their status from Endangered to Threatened.

– The last three years have been of serious concern.

• Longfin Smelt in FMWT, declining trend since 1995.

• American Shad in FMWT, down from 2002-2003.

• Threadfin Shad in FMWT, down in 2002-2003-2004.

• Splittail in FMWT, declining trend since 1998.

American shad

0

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67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Year

Abu

ndan

ce in

dex

(tho

usan

ds)

No

sam

ple

No

sam

ple

Delta smelt

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Year

Abu

ndan

ce in

dex

Longfin smelt

0

10

20

30

40

50

67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Year

Abu

ndan

ce in

dex

(tho

usan

ds)

81,79062,549

60,059

0

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4

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12

14

67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Abu

ndan

ce in

dex

(tho

usan

ds)

15,268Threadfin shad

No

sam

ple

No

sam

ple

Fall Midwater Trawl Survey Results

(CDFG Data, courtesy Kelly Souza)

No

sam

ple

No

sam

ple

Splittail (all ages combined)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Year

Abu

ndan

ce in

dex

No

sam

ple

No

sam

ple

Fall Midwater Trawl (FMWT) Catch of Splittail

CDFG Data (Figure courtesy Kelly Souza, CDFG)

Lower Trophic Levels

• Zooplankton production low.– Competition from introduced species, and– the new zooplankters unavailable to the fishes.

• Phytoplankton production low

• Overall productivity appears low.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

N. mercedis A. bowmani N. kadiakensis

Fall Mysid Abundance

P. amurensis

L. tetraspina

Nu

mb

er p

er c

ub

ic m

eter

CDFG Data - Courtesy of W. Lee Mecum, CDFG

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Eurytemora Pseudodiaptomus

Fall Calanoid Abundance

P. amurensis

L. tetraspina

Nu

mb

er p

er c

ub

ic m

eter

CDFG Data - Courtesy of W. Lee Mecum, CDFG

Monitoring Plans, adequate to the task?

• Survey grid example would appear to be inadequate to track changes in the south Delta.

– The one “South Delta” station would appear to be in the Central Delta, and

– there are no stations in the South Delta, except perhaps along the San Joaquin River.

San Pablo Bay

Carquinez Strait

Suisun BaySacramento River

San Joaquin River

South Delta

Who me?

CDFG Data - Courtesy of W. Lee Mecum, CDFG - Modified by Author

Meanwhile we have

“Analysis Paralysis,”

and

Increasing Exports

CVP and SWP Exports (1957-2002)

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

1957

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1985

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1989

1991

199

319

9519

9719

9920

0120

03

Water Year

Acr

e F

ee

t

CVP

SWP

Total

Export Trend since 1995

10 11 12 1 2 34 5 6 7

8 9

1957-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2005

0

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100000

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Ave

rag

e E

xp

ort

s

Month (Water Year)

Dec

ade

CVP Average Monthly Exports by Decade

1957-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2005

Note the summer increases in exports, to make up for the curtailments (VAMP) in the spring. Average exports in acre feet per month.

Annual Plant Capacities 4300 cfs = 3.1 maf 4600 cfs = 3.3 maf 5200 cfs = 3.9 maf

10 1112 1

2 34

5 67

89

1957-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2005

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

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350000

Ave

rag

e E

xp

ort

s

Month (Water Year)

Dec

ade

SWP Average Monthly Exports by Decade

1957-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2005

Note the summer increases in exports, to make up for the curtailments (VAMP) in the spring. Average exports in acre feet per month.

Annual Plant Capacities 6300 cfs = 4.6 maf 6680 cfs = 4.8 maf 8500 cfs = 6.2 maf10300 cfs = 7.5 maf

Recommendations:

• A moratorium on increases in exports from the Estuary until “we can all get better together.”

• A comprehensive monitoring program for the Estuary and Delta needs to be implemented:

– Water quality monitoring to be directed at all constituents of concern, not just electrical conductivity and dissolved oxygen.

– Fisheries monitoring for all species, not just species of special concern.

Recommendations, continued:

• Listed species to be fully recovered before we put any additional stress on the ecosystem.

• Home stream water (San Joaquin River origin) must be used to augment flows in the San Joaquin River from above the Merced River confluence through the Port of Stockton (including recirculation flows).

• Use Delta Mendota Canal water to replace the water used to augment San Joaquin River flows.