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Demand and Supply Challenges to Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa Cited from: The Montpellier Panel, 2013, Sustainable Intensification: A New Paradigm for African Agriculture, London DEMAND CHALLENGES SUPPLY CHALLENGES • Over 200 million people, nearly 23%, of the African population, are now classed as hungry. • Despite declines up to 2007, hunger levels have been rising 2% per year since then. • 40% of children under the age of five in SSA are stunted due to malnutrition. • SSA has a population of around 875 million, with an average annual growth rate of 2.5%. • The population in SSA will almost double by 2050, to close to two billion people. • Between now and 2100 three out of every four people added to the planet will live in SSA. • 50% of the population will live in cities by 2030. • Incomes are rising with GDP per capita in SSA expected to reach $5,600 by 2060, and diets already beginning to change. • On present trends, African food production systems will only be able to meet 13% of the continent’s food needs by 2050. • Nearly 3.3% of agricultural GDP in SSA is lost annually because of soil and nutrient loss. • Cereal yields have increased by over 200% in Asia and Latin America but only by 90% in Africa, between 1961 and 2011. • In SSA only 4% of cultivated land is irrigated. • In SSA only about seven million ha of new land have been brought into production between 2005 and 2010. • Between 1991 and 2009 per capita arable land fell by about 76m 2 per year. • Under moderate climate change with no adaptation, total agricultural production will reduce by 1.5% in 2050. • More than 95 million ha of arable land, or 75% of the total in SSA, has degraded or highly degraded soil, and farmers lose eight million tons of soil nutrients each year, estimated to be worth $4 billion.
