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4
Region 1980 2003 2009 Annual growth rate2003-2009* (%)
Market share
1980 2009
World 286.0 692.8 880.4 4.9 100.0 100.0
Africa 7.3 31.4 48.1 8.9 2.6 5.5
Americas 61.3 113.2 139.6 4.3 21.5 15.9
East Asia/Pacific 21.5 105.9 170.5 10.0 7.5 19.4
Europe 186.1 405.9 459.7 2.5 65.1 52.2
Middle East 7.5 30.0 52.5 11.8 2.6 6.0
South Asia 2.2 6.4 10.0 9.2 0.8 1.1
*Based on (1 + (r)/100)n or compound annual growth rate.Source: WTO.
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Expansion incessante du tourisme international
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
mil
lio
ns
Moyen-Orient
AfriqueAsie/Pacifique
AmériquesEurope
ã
Arrivées internationales par région, 1950-2003.
• De 25 millions en 1950 à 694 millions• Moyenne de croissance 1990-2003 : 3,3 % / an• Moyenne du taux annuel de croissance :
–1950-1960: 10,6 %–1960-1970: 9,1 %–1970-1980: 5,6 %–1980-1990: 4,8 %–1990-2000: 4,2 %
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Growth: 2000-2020 -WTOReceiving region
Arrival 2010 (mln)
Arrival 2020 (mln)
Growth rate 2000- 2010- 2010 2020
Europe 527 717 3.1
3.1
E-Asia/Pac
195 397 7.4 6.5
Americas 190 282 4.0 3.8
Africa 47 77 5.1 5.5
Mid.East 36 69 6.7 6.7
S.Asia 11 19 5.8 6.2
Total 1006 1561 4.5 4.1
8
THE MAIN DETERMINANTS• ECONOMIC FACTORS• COMPARATIVE PRICES• DEMOGRAPHIC• GEOGRAPHIC• SOCIO- CULTURAL ATTITUDES TO TOURISM• MOBILITY• GOVERNMENT/REGULATORY• MEDIA COMMUNICATIONS• INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION
TECHNOLOGY
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ECONOMIC FACTORS
• DISPOSABLE AND DISCRETIONARY INCOME• 30 COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN ACCOUNT FOR OVER 90%
OF WORLD TRAVEL• INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND: THE MARKET IS
JUDGED TO BE ELASTIC• INCOME DISTRIBUTION• EXPECTATIONS• MARGINAL DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
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COMPARATIVE PRICES
• PRICE OR PERCEIVED PRICE OF A DESTINATION IS VERY IMPORTANT
• EXCHANGE RATE ( SEE RATES $ TO £ OR €)• COMPARATIVE LEVEL OF INFLATION IN THE
DESTINATION AND COUNTRY OF ORIGIN• PRICE OF OIL
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DEMAND TRENDS• GLOBALISATION• FRAGMENTATION• GROWING IMPORTANCE OF ECO-TOURISM• CHANGED VALUES• CHANGING LIFESTYLES (E.G. BOURGEOIS BOHEMIAN)• MORE INDEPENDENT TOURISTS AS OPPOSED TO MASS
TOURISM• NEW TYPES OF HOLIDAYS AND SPECIAL INTEREST• QUALITY-CONSCIOUSNESS (VALUE FOR MONEY)• MORE EXPERIENCED AND EDUCATED HOLIDAYMAKERS• MORE FLEXIBLE TOURISTS• FROM PRODUCTS TO EXPERIENCE• ENOUGH IS ENOUGH
12
THE IRREVERSIBLE PROCESSOF GLOBALISATION
• GENERIC TERM
• THREE BASIC ELEMENTS :– GEOGRAPHICAL– CONVERGENCE IN WORLD TASTE– INTERNATIONALLY SIMILAR PRACTICES
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Int. Tourist Arrivals- Long Haul(%)• RECEIVING REGION
Receiving region 1995 2020
World 18 24
Africa 43 35 Americas 23 38 E-Asia/Pacific 21 19 Europe 12 15 Middle East 58 63 South Asia 75 85
WTO
14
18%
75%
58%
43%
23% 21%
12%
24%
85%
63%
35%38%
19%15%
Monde Asie Merid. Moyen-Orient
Afrique Amériques AOP Europe
1995 2020
Part du tourisme de longue distance dans le nombre total des arrivées du tourisme international, 1995-2020
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Ranking country destinations
World share in %
1950 1970 1990 2000 2008
Top 5 destinations
71 43 39 36 31
Rank 6-10 17 22 19 15 14
Rank 11-15 9 10 10 10 10
Other destinations
3 25 32 38 45
Total Million arrivals
3 166 466 686 922
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THE MORE DEMANDING CONSUMER
• MORE AFFLUENT• BETTER EDUCATED• MORE HEALTHY AND MORE INTERESTED IN ACTIVE
PURSUITS• OLDER• MORE TRAVELLED• MORE EXPOSED TO THE MEDIA AND INFORMATION• MORE COMPUTER LITERATE• MORE HETEROGENEOUS AND INDIVIDUALISTIC• MORE CULTURALLY DIVERSE IN TERMS OF ETHNIC
ORIGIN
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STAGGERING OF HOLIDAYS• WHY?
– CONSUMER INTEREST– SOCIAL ASPECT– PUBLIC EXPENDITURE– EMPLOYMENT– INEFFICIENT USE OF TOURISM ASSETS– ECOLOGICAL FACTORS
• WHY CONCENTRATION?– CLIMATE– SCHOOL-HOLIDAYS ( MOST IMPORTANT
FACTOR)– ORGANIZATION ANNUAL LEAVES IN BUSINESS– PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS
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HOW TO SOLVE CONCENTRATION?
• GERMAN ROLLING SYSTEM• COMPLEMENTARY MEASURES
– PROMOTION OFF SEASON– PRICE POLICY– ACCOMPANIED MEASURES IN THE TOURIST
CENTRES
• FINAL CONSIDERATIONS– EUROPEAN SOLUTION?– STAGGERING AND PRICE
23
MORE PURPOSE BUILT ATTRACTIONS• TYPE:
– PRIMARY NATURAL ATTRACTIONS– PRIMARY MAN-MADE ATTRACTIONS– PURPOSE- BUILT ATTRACTIONS
• SCOPE:– LONG STAY OVER– TOURING CIRCUIT– STOPOVER
• DEGREE OF PERMANENCY– SITE ATTRACTIONS– EVENT ATTRACTIONS
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SUPPLY COMPONENTS -UNWTO• ATTRACTIONS• PUBLIC AND PRIVATE AMENITIES• ACCESSSIBILITY• HUMAN RESOURCES• IMAGE AND CHARACTER• PRICE
SUPPLY TRENDS
25
• MORE DESTINATIONS• NEW TYPES OF ATTRACTIONS• CONCENTRATION• MARKET STRUCTURES – OLIGOPOLY• MOVEMENTS IN THE HOTEL SECTOR• THEME PARKS• TIMESHARING• INDOOR RESORTS• ALL INCLUSIVE RESORTS • BRANDING• TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION AFFECTING T.
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Typology of markets
monopoly
oligopoly
competitionoligopsony
bilateralmonopoly
monopsony
Number of buyers
nu
mb
er
su
pp
liers
one a few many
one
a few
many
28
TOURISM SUPPLY AND MARKET STRUCTURE
• PERFECT COMPETITION
• MONOPOLY
• MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION
• OLIGOPOLY
29
OLIGOPOLY
• SMALL NUMBER OF PRODUCERS DOMINATE THE INDUSTRY ( e.g. INTERNATIONAL AIRLINE INDUSTRY).
• EACH FIRM HAS SOME CONTROL OVER ITS PRICE AND OUTPUT DECISIONS AND THERE ARE SOME BARRIERS TO ENTRY AND EXIT.
• THE KEY CHARACTERISTIC IS THE INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN PRODUCERS SO THAT EACH FIRM’S PRICE AND OUTPUT DECISIONS DEPEND, IN PART, ON THOSE OF ITS COMPETITORS.
• THE PREVAILING MARKET PRICE IS THE PROFIT-MAXIMIZING PRICE FOR THE FIRM
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MARKET STRUCTURES AND ACCOMODATION
• GREAT DIVERSITY– LARGE CHAIN HOTELS BUT HOLIDIDAY TOURISM IS MOSTLY
FRAGMENTED– WIDE RANGE IN QUALITY (CAMPING, TIMESHARE)
• FIXED CAPACITY:– HIGH FIXED COSTS DRIVE OPERATORS TO ATTAIN HIGH
OCCUPANCY RATES THROUGH SUCH DEVICES AS DIFFERENTIATION AND SEGMENTATION. THESE CHARACTERISTICS TEND TO INVOLVE ELEMENTS BOTH MONOPOLY AND OLIGOPOLY (e.g; LUXURY)
32
MARKET STRUCTURES AND TO
• IN USA AND IN EUROPE THERE ARE SOME LARGE PLAYERS; THEY CONTROL A LARGE SHARE OF THE MARKET
• LOW ENTRY COST• FIERCE COMPETITION, LOW MARGINS• ECONOMIES OF SCALE AND SCOPE• THE DEGREE OF CONCENTRATION OF MARKET
SHARE IN THE PACKAGE HOLIDAY SEGMENT SUGGESTS AN OLIGOPOLISTIC STUCTURE (REALITY IS MORE COMPLEX; NICHE PLAYERS)
33
MARKET STRUCTURES AND TA
• RELATIVE HIGH CONCENTRATION - FIRM WITH MULTIPLE OUTLETS ( IN UK 5 CONTROL A THIRD) SOME ARE INTEGRATED WITH TOS OR CARRIERS
• LOW ENTRY COSTS• ECONOMIES OF SCALE AND SCOPE• LOCATION IS IMPORTANT• OLIGOPOLISTIC AND COMPETITIVE SITUATIONS
34
MARKET STRUCTURES AND AIRLINES• AIRLINES ARE HIGH FIXED COST ENTERPRISES WITH FIXED
CAPACITIES - HIGH PAYLOADS• SHORT-HAUL FLIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY MORE EXPENSIVE
THAN LONG-HAUL CARRIAGE ( FEWER HOURS IN THE AIR)• TO MAXIMIZE THE PAYLOAD THE AIRLINES APPLY ‘YIELD
MANAGEMENT’ (IS AKIN TO PERFECTLY DISCRIMINATING MONOPOLY PRICING)
• MORE CONCENTRATION IS LIKELY- HIGHER PRICES• OLIGOPOLISTIC MARKET; SOMETIMES MONOPOLY
POWERS
35
CONCENTRATION MOVEMENT
• AIR CARRIERS– AIR FRANCE - KLM– BRITISH AIRWAYS - IBERIA– UNITED – CONTINENTAL
• AIRLINE ALLIANCES– STAR ALLIANCE– SKY TEAM– ONEWORLD
• TOUR-OPERATING• HOTEL SECTOR
37
ALLIANCES AND IMPROVING THE EFFICIENCY AND SERVICES OF AIRLINES
• JOINT PROCUREMENT• JOINT OPERATIONS• JOINT BACK OFFICE• CO-MARKETING• CO-SERVICES
38
ALLIANCES AND COST-REDUCTION OPPORTUNITIES
• FINANCE AND UTILIZATION• AIRLINE OPERATION• EXTERNAL ( e.g. AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURERS)• RISK-SHARING
39
ALLIANCES AND CONSUMERS
• ‘SEAMLESS’ TRAVEL (SERVING A LARGE NUMBER OF CITIES)
• ITINERARY AND ROUTING CHOICES• FREQUENCY AND CONVENIENCE OF
CONNECTING• CONSUMERS CAN BENEFIT FROM LOWER
FARES
40
MOVEMENTS IN THE HOTEL SECTOR
• GROWING CONCENTRATION• FRANCHISING/INCREASING CHAIN PENETATION: TOP
TEN BRAND COMPANIES
YEAR HOTELS ROOMS (1000)
1970
1996
2003
2008
4.987
20.048
29.638
33.811
503
2.403
3.522
4.127
41
TOP SEVEN HOTEL GROUPS- 2008 (x 1000 ROOMS)
Intercontinental HG IHG UK 620
Wynham Worldwide- (Cendant) USA 593
Mariott Int. USA 561
Hilton Hotels Corp USA 546
Accor Fr 479
Choice Hotels International USA 473
Best Western International USA 305
42
FRANCHISING
• DEFINITION• ADVANTAGES FRANCHISEE• ADVANTAGES FOR THE FRANCHISER• TYPICAL FRANCHISERS
43
FRANCHISING• DEFINITION: “FRANCHISING CAN BE DEFINED AS A CONTRACTUAL
BOND OF INTEREST IN WHICH THE FRANCHISOR, WHICH HAS DEVELOPED A PATTERN OR FORMULA FOR THE MANUFACTURE AND/OR SALE OF GOODS/SERVICES, EXTENDS TO OTHERS ( THE FRANCHISEE) THE RIGHT TO CARRY ON THE BUSINESS, SUBJECT TO A NUMBER OF RESTRICTIONS, CONTROLS AND CONSIDERATION “ ( T HUDSON)
• “ FRANCHISING CAN BE DESCRIBED AS THE SELLING BY THE FRANCHISOR OF THE RIGHT TO MARKET A PROVEN PRODUCT…; FRANCHISING MUST BE LOOKED AT AS A TWO-WAY STREET: THE FRANCHISOR PROVIDES CERTAIN SERVICES AND CONVEYS CERTAIN RIGHTS TO THE FRANCHISEE, AND THE FRANCHISEE IN TURN HAS CERTAIN OBLIGATIONS TO THE FRANCHISOR”( GRAY & LIGOURI)
44
FRANCHISING - CHARACTERISTICS• DEFINITION: IT IS A LICENSE FOR A SPECIFIC PERIOD OF
TIME TO TRADE IN A DEFINED GEOGRAPHIC AREA UNDER THE FRANCHISER’S NAME AND TO USE AN ASSOCIATED TRADE MARK OR LOGO
• FORMULA HAS ALREADY BEEN TRIED AND TESTED• THE FRANCHISER PROVIDES THE ENTIRE BUSINESS
CONCEPT - MANUAL• THE FRANCHISER EDUCATES THE FRANCHISEE• THE FRANCHISER PROVIDES BACK UP SERVICES - E.G.
ADVERTISING• THE FRANCHISEE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN INITIAL
INVESTMENT AND TO PAY A ROYALTY TO THE FRANCHISER
45
FRANCHISING - CONT’D
• REMUNERATION– DIFFERENT FORMS: BASIC FEE, FIXED AMOUNT PER
OCCUPIED ROOM, % ON ROOM SALES, OPTIONS…..
• FINANCIAL ADVANTAGES– LESS RISK– EASIER ACCESS TO LOANS
• PROTECTION FRANCHISEE– WORKING IN A DEFINED GEOGRAPHIC AREA
46
FRANCHISE SERVICES• METHOD OR OPERATIONL PROCEDURE
– MANUAL– TRAINING OF STAFF
• TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE– RESEARCH POTENTIAL LOCATIONS– ARCHITECTURAL SERVICES, INTERIOR DESIGN– FINANCING– FURNITURE AND EQUIPMENT
• MARKETING– NAME– RESERVATION SYSTEM– PROMOTION ( E.G. JOINT ADVERTISING)
47
OBLIGATIONS FRANCHISEE• “ TO MEET THE STANDARDS OF THE CHAIN”
– SIZE OF THE ROOMS; FURNITURE, PARKING, SWIMMING POOL, SIZE OF THE BEDS ETC.
• OPERATIONAL-QUALITY STANDARDS– RATES CHARGED– CHECK-OUT TIMES– CLEANLINESS– POLITENESS OF STAFF– QUALITY OF SERVICE– CHANGING OF LINEN– USE OF IDENTITY ITEMS
48
MOVEMENTS IN THE HOTEL SECTOR (2)
• MANAGEMENT CONTRACTS• HOTEL COMMERCIALISATION• BUDGET HOTELS
• PS: MICE TOURISM AND HOTELS– SUCCESS CAPITAL CITIES DEPEND ON MANY
FACTORS
49
BRANDING
• POSITIONING AND BRANDING• MANY BENEFITS• SINGLE-BRAND PHILOSOPHY• RANGE OF BRANDS• THE TEN BIGGEST HOTEL BRANDS• DESTINATION BRANDING – CORPORATE
IDENTITY
50
BIGGEST HOTEL BRANDS 2008BRAND 1000 ROOMS
BEST WESTERN 305
HOLIDAY INN HOTELS & RESORTS 250
MARRIOTT HOTELS & RESORTS 193
HILTON 186
HOLIDAY INN EXPRESS 174
HAMPTON INN 160
COMFORT INN 153
DAYS INN 153
SHERATON HOTELS & RESORTS 143
SUPER 8 131
51
TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION AFFECTING TOURISM
• TRANSPORTATION– AIR TRANSPORTATION– RAILWAY– CRUISES
• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY– COMPUTER RESERVATION SYSTEMS– THE INTERNET
• THE ONLINE TRAVEL AGENCIES• DYNAMIC PACKAGING• E-MARKETING
52
NEW TYPES OF ACCOMODATION AND ATTRACTIONS
• TIMESHARING• CRUISES• ALL INCLUSIVE RESORTS• INDOOR RESORTS• MODERN SPAS• THEME PARKS
53
TIMESHARING• DEFINITION: “TIMESHARE, SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS INTERVAL
OWNERSHIP, IS A FORM OF MULTI-OWNERSHIP OF PROPERTY OF WHICH EXAMPLES CAN BE FOUND IN THE BUSINESS SECTOR, AS WELL AS IN THE LEISURE SECTOR. IT IS THE PERIODIC RIGHT OF USE OR OCCUPATION WHERE PROPERTY IS DIVIDED ON A TEMPORAL RATHER THAN PHYSICAL BASIS. IT CONFERS ON A NUMBER OF PURCHASERS THE RIGHT TO THE EXCLUSIVE AND FULL USE OF PROPERTY AND FACILITIES FOR PREDETERMINED PERIODS OF YEAR. IN PRINCIPLE THIS RIGHT IS RECOGNISED AS TRANSFERABLE” ( GOODALL & STABLER)
• FORMS:– REAL PROPERTY RIGHT– A CONTRACTUAL RIGHT ( E.G. CORPORATE SHARE, HOLIDAY
CREDITS OR POINTS)• GROWING MARKET - MAJOR HOSPITALITY COMPANIES ENTERED
THE TIMESHARE INDUSTRY
54
TIMESHARING - ADVANTAGES• FOR THE DESTINATION
– ABOVE AVERAGE PER HEAD EXPENDITURE (JOACHIMSTHALER)
– QUALITY ACCOMODATION– STABLE LEVEL OF EMPLOYMENT– HIGHER OCCUPANCY– LESS SEASONAL
• FOR THE DEVELOPER ( RETURN ON INVESTMENT)– EARLY CAPITAL PAYBACK– NEW MARKET AWAY FROM THE PACKAGE HOLIDAY
NORM (LOW RETURN IN HOLIDAY HOTELS, DUE TO PACKAGES - PRESSURE T0S)
55
TIMESHARING - ADVANTAGES
• FOR THE CONSUMER– ADVANTAGES
• GOOD ACCOMODATION,• LIKED RECREATIONAL FACILITIES..
– DISADVANTAGES• LINKED TO A DESTINATION (BUT EXCHANGE
OPPORTUNITIES)• HIGH OPERATIONAL COSTS (MAINTENANCE
FEE)
56
TIMESHARING -CONT’D• EUROPEAN TIMESHARE REGULATION
– HARD SELLING PRACTICES– EU DIRECTIVE ( COOLING-OFF PERIOD)
• SOME POWERFUL BRANDS ARE NOW ACTIVELY INVOLVED IN TIMESHARE DEVELOPMENT - IMPACT ON THE CREDIBILITY (MARRIOTT , WALT DISNEY COMPANY, HILTON RESORTS..)
• THE EXCHANGE COMPANIES– ACT AS A TOUR OPERATOR FOR TIMESHARE OWNERS
• RCI ( RESORT CONDOMINIUMS INTERNATIONAL)• II ( INTERVAL INTERNATIONAL)
– HAVE PROVIDED A MUCH-NEEDED RESERVOIR OF ADVICE AND INFORMATION FOR WOULD-BE TIMESHARE RESORT DEVELOPERS
57
THEME PARKS• DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CUTURAL/HISTORIC ATTRACTIONS
AND LEISURE AND THEME PARKS• THEME PARK: CHARACTERISTICS (G RICHARDS & B
RICHARDS)– PRIMARILY AN OUTDOOR ATTRACTION– A VISITOR DESTINATION IN ITS OWN RIGHT– BASED ON RIDES; A SINGLE MANAGEMENT UNIT– AN ADMISSION CHARGE OR ALL INCLUSIVE CHARGE (PAY-ONE-
PRICE - POP)– CONSTRUCTED AROUND THE NEEDS OF VISITORS, – FOCUSSED ON ENTERTAINMENT RATHER THAN EDUCATION
(EURO DISNEY)• POTENTIAL VISITOR CATCHMENTS• REVENUES• POTENTIAL MARKET IN EUROPE (REF. TO USA)
59
CRUISES• TOTAL CAPACITY 2010
– 417.000 PASSENGERS– 254 SHIPS
• BIG CONCENTRATION– CARNIVAL GROUP REPRESENTS NEARLY 50%
• VERY HIGH GROWRH RATE• LARGER SHIPS
60
ALL-INCLUSIVE RESORTS• DEFINITION: “ THE ALL-INCLUSIVE CONCEPT REFERS TO HOLIDAYS
WHICH INCLUDE VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING IN THE PREPAID PRICE - FROM AIRPORT TRANSFERS, BAGGAGE HANDLING, GOVERMENT TAXES, ROOMS, ALL MEALS, SNACKS, DRINKS AND CIGARETTES TO USE ALL FACILITIES, EQUIPMENT AND CERTIFIED INSTRUCTORS. EVEN GRATUITIES AND NIGHTLY ENTERTAINMENT ARE INCLUDED”( POON)
• MAJOR ALL-INCLUSIVE CHAINS:– CLUB MED -ALLEGRO RESORTS - ROBINSON CLUBS - CLUB VALTUR
- SUPERCLUBS - CLUB ALDIANA -etc• DIFFERENT MARKET SEGMENTS ( SEE SANDALS)• PERFORMANCE: RELATIVE GOOD; SUCCESS BASED ON:
– THEIR APPEAL TO TRAVEL AGENTS– PSYCHOGRAPHIC MARKET SEGMENTATION/- AGGRESSIVE
MARKETING– PRODUCT QUALITY CONTROL/- GUEST SATISFACTION
61
HEALTH TOURISM• TRADITIONAL HEALTH SPAS AND MODERN “HEALTH AND
FITNESS “• DIFFERENT TYPES:
– CLUB SPA– CRUISE SHIP SPA– DESTINATION SPA– MEDICAL SPA– MINERAL SPRINGS SPA– RESORT/HOTEL SPA
• POPULAR IN: GERMANY, RUSSIA, AUSTRIA, FRANCE, FINLAND…..
62
INDOOR RESORTS• CONCEPT: A RESORT IS A PLACE FREQUENTED FOR A
SPECIFIC PURPOSE, A DESTINATION IN ITS OWN RIGHT. BY IMPLICATION, AN INDOOR RESORT IS CREATED TO COMPETE WITH THOSE TOURIST CENTRE WHICH HAVE THE ADVANTAGE OF A WARM AND PLEASANT CLIMATE IN A COVERED ARTIFICIAL ENVIRONMENT SEVERAL INDOOR CENTRES IN THE UK
• CENTER PARCS: RESIDENTIAL RECREATION 365 DAYS PER ANNUM IN A NORTH EUROPEAN CLIMATE.
• FEATURES:– 300-400 ACRES OF WOODLAND AND WATER– HIGH QUALITY BUNGALOWS– CENTRAL COMPLEX OF SHOPPING, DINING AND RECREATION
63
INTEGRATED LEISURE COMPLEXES
• COMBINATION OF:– RETAIL– LEISURE– ENTERTAINMENT– CATERING – ACCOMMODATION
• EXAMPLES: – EDMONTON MALL– TRAFFORD PARK
• FANTASY CITIES