Demand for services for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander … · 2020. 6. 4. · 3. Sector...

Demand for services for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Victoria

Report prepared for the Aboriginal Executive Council August 2019

Confidential. For the use of SVA’s client only. Written permission required for any other use. 2

Contents

Sector Demand Projections 3

Aboriginal Population Projections 2

Executive Summary 1

Pages

3 - 10

11 - 22

23 - 75


In response to a rapidly growing population, and greater need for social services across all sectors, the Aboriginal Executive Council (AEC) sought to project future demand to enable planning and advocacy to meet demand

About this report

Research approach

1

•  Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisations (ACCOs) operate in sectors that are complex, interconnected and impacted by shifts in government policy towards increased self-determination. In many sectors demand exceeds capacity, and at the same time demand in many sectors continues to rise due to significant population growth in Victoria and other factors

•  In response, VACCA commissioned SVA to project future demand for VACCA services. With VACCA's permission, the AEC contracted SVA to prepare a new report (drawing on the original work for VACCA) for its policy and advocacy purposes

•  There are three parts to this report: Executive Council sought to better understand growth in the Aboriginal population over the next decade, and to forecast current and future demand for eight priority sectors across metropolitan and regional geographies in Victoria

1.  Executive Summary (pages 3 – 10): High-level summary of the approach, methodology and outputs of the forecast modelling 2.  Aboriginal population projections (pages 11 – 22): Explanation of the modelling approach and assumptions, Aboriginal population forecast to

2028 by DHHS region, and forecast of the vulnerable Aboriginal population to 2028 by DHHS region 3.  Sector projections (pages 23 – 75): Demand projections for the eight priority sectors. For each sector, the report lays out the data and

assumptions used, overview of the current state of the sector and how demand is expected to change, demand forecast to 2028 and ACCOs servicing different regions.

•  SVA Consulting, a for-purpose consulting practice, worked with an analytics firm Taylor Fry to develop a robust approach to forecasting population growth and sector demand. Together the research team developed two related models, with the following elements:

•  The Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) areas were used as the primary regions for projecting population growth demand to align with Victorian Government planning and funding approaches

•  The researchers engaged with the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), the Department of Education and Training (DET) and several non-profit organisations to understand drivers of change to inform modelling assumptions, and gain access to sector data that is not publicly available

•  Variety of data sources were used in the model, including ABS Census Tablebuilder Pro, other publicly available data including ABS and relevant sector specific data. Some data was sourced through formal requests from the relevant Government agencies as inputs to the model. Assumptions about sector demand and growth were tested with Taylor Fry, external stakeholders and SVA subject matter experts

Aboriginal Population Growth Model

•  Forecast Aboriginal population (total & households) by age and region

•  Forecast ‘vulnerable’ Aboriginal population at the level of household by location (using poverty line as a key indicator of vulnerability)

Sector Demand Model

•  Drivers of demand across eight priority sectors by region •  Forecast future demand based on past trends and policy analysis •  Map of ACCOs within each sector in each region


This involved the development of two intersecting models – a population forecast model and a sector demand forecast model – that projected demand in eight sectors at the DHHS regional level

Research methodology

Research limitations

1

•  Aboriginal population forecast methodology ‒  The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census was used to identify the Aboriginal population in each DHHS area, and

forecast using an approach recommended by Taylor Fry based on the average annual change in population in each region, adjusted for regional/metropolitan differences and ‘unexplainable’ growth levels reported by ABS

‒  The model adjusts for the ‘undercount’ rate for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population as reported by the ABS ‒  This approach captures growth trends at the DHHS area level reducing the likelihood of underestimation

•  Sector demand forecast methodology

‒  For each sector, research was undertaken to identify the most relevant data set(s) and develop assumptions to estimate 1.  Demand in each sector to the most disaggregated regional level as possible 2.  Expected growth or reduction in demand for each section

‒  Where required, formal data requests were made to Victoria Government departments. ‒  For each sector, the best available data was used to estimate current and future demand at the regional level. Details of data

reviewed, requested and selected can be found in each sector projections section. ‒  To supplement the quantitative data collected, the researchers also conducted a literature review and held interviews with select

external stakeholders and SVA’s internal subject matter experts ‒  The accuracy of forecasts has been ranked from low to high based on data quality (full rankings are available on page 25). The

quality of available data was affected by the level of regional disaggregation, incomplete data (data for regions with high rates of sector usage but no data for others), and inconsistent recording of Aboriginal status

•  Forecasting Aboriginal population growth is complicated due to the high number of people that are not counted in the national Census, with research and other anecdotal evidence suggesting the rate may be higher, particularly in some regional areas. For this reason, actual demand is likely higher than that reported in this project

•  Data quality significantly varies by service area, particularly in understanding differences at a regional level, and should be kept in mind when interpreting results, the result for some service areas is that regional differences have been flattened due to the use of metro/regional statistic rather than different indicators for each regional

•  To forecast the number of households living under the poverty line the model uses equivalised household income data from the Census but it was not possible to adjust for housing costs due to lack of available data. This means projections are based on total income rather than disposable income, and therefore likely underestimate poverty in regions with higher housing costs.

•  This report was prepared in good faith, using the best available data to available to the researchers at the time of the project. No responsibility will be taken for forecasts which are later found to be different to those made in this report

Confidential. For the use of SVA’s client only. Written permission required for any other use. 5 |

3,382 2,074

4,556 2,814

4,559 2,678

5,502 3,587 4,513

2,634 4,437 3,854

2,314 2,783

2,795 3,253 3,650 5,236

2,797

5,939 3,962

7,552

4,253

8,324

4,898 6,485

4,486 6,649

5,001

2,758 4,018 3,816

5,739 6,105

Western Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Brimbank Melton

Bayside Peninsula

Southern Melbourne

Goulburn Ovens Murray

Loddon Mallee Outer Gippsland

Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

Barwon

2018

2028

The Aboriginal population is projected to rise by 48 per cent by 2028, with population growth highest in Central Highlands, Ovens Murray, Barwon and Western Melbourne

59,385 64,194 69,422 75,107 81,290 88,018

34,257 37,039 40,064 43,353 46,930 50,823

7,292 7,486 7,688 7,900 8,120 8,351

2022 2028 2022 2018

Households

2024 2026

Individuals

Households living under poverty line

Metropolitan Melbourne Regional Victoria

Victorian Aboriginal population projection to 2028

Aboriginal population projection to 2028 by region

1


Demand for the range of family and child services is projected to increase significantly over the next decade, and will require increased investment, particularly in prevention services to reduce the need for out of home care and intensive services

Early childhood education

Non-intensive family services

Regional •  Loddon •  Mallee •  Central

Highlands

Metro •  Bayside

Peninsula •  Western •  C e n t r a l

Highlands

Out of home care services

Intensive family services

By 2028, 4,500 Aboriginal children will be ready for

early education (between 3 and 6 years old and not in school), and 41 per cent

will be identified as vulnerable when they start

school

By 2028, 5,500 Aboriginal households with children under 15 years old will be living under the poverty

line, and be potential family services clients

At current growth rates, almost 4,000 Aboriginal

children and young people will be in out of

home care by 2028

Demand will be highest in: Regional •  Loddon •  Mallee •  Central

Highlands


Peninsula •  North Eastern •  Western

Demand will be highest in: Regional •  Loddon •  Barwon •  Inner

Gippsland

Metro •  North Eastern •  Southern •  Bayside

Peninsula

Demand will be highest in:

By 2028, at current rates of access* over 1,700

Aboriginal families will require intensives services

due to involvement with child protection

Regional •  Loddon •  Barwon •  Inner

Gippsland

Metro •  North Eastern •  Southern •  Bayside

Peninsula


3,088

4,559

2018 2028

+1,471 3,757

5,546

2028 2018

+1,789

1,868

3,893

2018 2028

+2,025 883

1,708

2018 2028

+825

*current rates of access may be lower than current demand

1


Demand for culturally safe and connected services in the family violence, homelessness and justice sectors will also grow

Family violence

Homelessness

Regional •  Loddon •  Outer

Gippsland •  Inner

Gippsland


Peninsula •  North Eastern •  Hume

Moreland

Justice

By 2028, an estimated 6,300 Aboriginal people (mainly women) will be reported as affected by

family violence*, with half of total demand in three regions: Mallee, Bayside

Peninsula and North Eastern Melbourne

At current growth rates, Aboriginal people will access homelessness services nearly 15,000

times in 2028

By 2028, at least 1,400 Aboriginal people will be

recorded as offenders, however demand could be

significantly higher*

Demand will be highest in: Regional •  Mallee •  Goulburn •  Outer

Gippsland


Peninsula •  North Eastern •  B r i m b a n k

Melton

Demand will be highest in: Regional •  Central

Highlands •  Loddon •  Mallee

Metro •  Western

Melbourne •  North Eastern •  Bayside

Peninsula


4,434

6,340

2018 2028

+1,906 9,120

14,721

2028 2018

+5,601

956 1,412

2018 2028

+456

* Indigenous status is currently often not recorded so actual demand may

be higher

* Indigenous status is currently often not recorded so actual demand may

be higher

1


The need for culturally safe mental health and AOD services is also high, with 31,000 Aboriginal people projected to have high or very high levels of psychological distress by 2028, and 9,500 people estimated to need AOD services

Mental health Alcohol and Other Drugs

At current rates, more than 31,000 Aboriginal people in Victoria (36 per

cent) will have high or very high levels of psychological distress by 2028, with

5,000 estimated to be potential users of community support services*

* based on general pop. % of services delivered by

community support agencies

Demand will be highest in: Regional •  Goulburn •  Loddon •  Barwon

Metro •  Bayside Peninsula •  Western •  North Eastern


3,421 5,070

2018 2028

+1,649 3,143 4,658

2028 2018

+1,515

Regional •  Goulburn •  Loddon •  Barwon

Metro •  Bayside Peninsula •  Western •  North Eastern

At current rates, an estimated 9,500 Aboriginal people in Victoria will be using

alcohol at a very risky level by 2028, with around 4,600 estimated to be potential users

of community support services*

* based on general pop. % of services delivered by community support agencies

1

21,378

31,686

2028 2018

+10,308

6,414 9,506

2028 2018

+3,092

Estimated demand for all mental health services

Estimated demand for mental health services in community support organisations*

Demand for all AOD services

Demand for mental health services in community support organisations*


By 2028, around 3,000 Aboriginal young people between the ages of 15 – 24 are projected to be disengaged from work and study, with 1,000 young people under 18 involved in the justice system

Youth engagement Youth Justice

Demand will be highest in: Regional •  Barwon •  Goulbourn •  Wimmera

South West


Peninsula •  Western •  Outer Eastern •  North Eastern


1,978

2,910

2018 2028

+932

741 1,092

2028 2018

+351

Regional •  Loddon •  Mallee •  Central

Highlands


Peninsula •  Western •  Southern •  North Eastern

By 2028, ~3,000 Aboriginal young people under 24 will be not engaged in education, employment or training, and could benefit from support to

increase the likelihood of engagement

At current rates, by 2028 approximately 1,000 young Aboriginal people under 18

will be involved with the youth justice system during

the year

1

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To meet future demand in ways that uphold self-determination commitments, ACCOs across Victoria will need to grow rapidly, and long-term funding will need to be made across all sectors

10 |

The Aboriginal population in Victoria is growing quickly

•  Population projections have been underestimated in the past, potentially complicated by significant rates of ‘undercounting’ and ‘unexplainable growth’

•  Population growth varies across regions, with Western Melbourne and the Bayside Peninsula expected to have the highest populations of Aboriginal people by 2028

The Victorian Government is committed to self-determination

•  This includes Treaty negotiation, reform to children and family services, justice agreement

•  There is also an acknowledgment of the advanced benefit of culturally safe Aboriginal community-controlled services across sectors

Long-term commitment from government to build the capacity of Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisations (ACCOs) is needed to meet current and future demand, and to uphold commitment to self-determination

•  Aboriginal Community-Controlled Organisations (ACCOs) are expected to have a significant role in meeting future demand •  This will include taking on a greater proportion of service delivery at the same time as adjusting to significant reforms. •  Increased service demand due to government reform, plus increased demand due to a growing population, will require

ACCOs to quickly increase organisational capacity and expand service delivery

Budget planning that accounts for population growth and growth factors specific to sectors is needed to meet future demand

•  The Aboriginal population in Victoria is estimated to grow by 48 per cent by 2028, with demand for health and social services forecast to rise correspondingly across all sectors. Demand for out-of-home care and homelessness is forecast to rise faster than population growth, due to current trends and policy context

•  The targets outlined in the Victorian Aboriginal Affairs Framework and Closing the Gap will only be achieved if population growth is included into budget planning

1


Contents


Population Projections 2

Executive Summary 1

A B

Overview of the Methodology Aboriginal Population projections by DHHS region

C Aboriginal Population ‘vulnerability’ projections by DHHS region

Pages

3 - 10

11 - 22

23 - 75

12 - 16

17 - 19

20 - 22


To estimate future sector demand, the model projects the Aboriginal population and combines with current demand and estimated growth rate

12 |

Aboriginal Population

growth

Sector demand

Aboriginal population

Undercount rate (%)

Growth rate (%)

Estimated Aboriginal population

x x = x

Demand for service area

(%)

Demand for service type

(Mental Health & AOD only)

(%)

Estimated demand for service type

x = Growth rate (%)

x

2 A


The project uses Department of Health and Human Services areas as the primary region for projecting demand

The Department of Health and Human Services groups the 79 local government areas (LGAs) in Victoria into 17 regions.

2 A


Victoria has the fifth highest Aboriginal population in Australia, with unexplainable change the second largest driver of population growth for every state

14 |

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT

Total change 43,551 9,766 30,656 3,752 6,314 3,947 1,469 1,324

Natural increase 24,814 6,156 23,014 3,869 11,480 2,462 4,699 777

Interstate migration -2,012 908 1,525 282 213 -200 -961 263

Overseas migration 655 278 573 92 197 52 48 65

Unexplainable change 20,094 2,444 5,544 -491 -5,576 1,633 -2,317 219

172,625

37,992

155,826

30,432

69,664

19,625

56,779

5,184

216,176

47,788

186,482

34,184

75,978

23,572

58,248

6,508 ACT

NSW

Qld

SA

NT

Tas

WA

Vic

+25%

+26%

+20%

+12%

+9%

+20%

+3%

+26%

2011 2016

2 A

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population from Australian Bureau of Statistics Census (2011 - 2016)

Reasons for change in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander


a)  https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/committees/rrc/disadvantage_and_inequality/submissions/036_20100331_GreaterShepparton.pdf b)  SVA Interview (1.04.2019) c)  Australian Bureau of Statistics, 3238.0 - Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2001 to 2026

Forecasting Aboriginal population growth is complicated, and traditional approaches have led to forecasts that prove to be inaccurate

•  25% of the increase in the Aboriginal population in Victoria between the last two Census’ was “unexplainable” (not explainable by births, deaths or migration). One reason given for this is an increase in people identifying as Aboriginal. It is possible this could decrease in future, however we have had conflicting insights that it may actually increase as more Aboriginal controlled services become available in different regions.

•  The ABS estimates that 15.8% of Aboriginal people in Victoria were not counted in the 2016 Census. There are no estimates of how this breaks down at a regional level, and service workers have indicated that the undercount rates in Gippsland are likely far higher.

•  Independent research conducted in Shepparton identified a Census undercount rate of up to 28% (a).

•  Due to these issues, traditional population forecasting techniques have routinely underestimated the growth of the Aboriginal population in Victoria, leading to impacts such as inadequate funding allocated for out of home care. This issue has also been identified by DHHS in discussions about this project (b).

•  Previous forecasts released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics have projected population growth that was lower than actual growth (c).

Situation SVA approach •  We worked with Taylor Fry to identify an approach that can

adjust for issues with undercounting in traditional population forecasting techniques. For the purposes of this project, individuals, households and age groups have assumed an undercount of 15.8%.

•  The approach we are using is based on the average annual change in population over the 2011 and 2016 Census, adjusted for the ‘unexplainable’ portion of growth and with a regional loading reflecting the difference between metro and regional growth.

•  The advantage of this approach is it reduces the likelihood of underestimating the growth in the Aboriginal population in Victoria compared to other possible methods that historically have underestimated due to the challenges of estimating the Aboriginal population.

•  The limitations of this approach is that it does not adjust for different changes across age levels as it applies the same growth rate across the whole population.

2 A


Forecasting is also complicated by the large difference in the change in Aboriginal population in each DHHS area level across Victoria

Situation SVA approach •  We worked with Taylor Fry to identify an approach that would

enable us to adjust the population growth rate according to population growth trends at the DHHS area level, but did not ‘overinflate’ (due to the low raw numbers that could result in large percentages)

•  The model offers two growth scenarios that are adjusted to reduce the likelihood of underestimation population growth (both scenarios), and to take into account large differences in the change in population at the local level (complex scenario)

•  Scenario 1: Simple •  2 growth rates - Metropolitan and regional •  Based on the change in average annual change in

population over the 2011 and 2016 Census, adjusted for the ‘unexplainable’ portion of growth and with a regional loading reflecting the difference between metro and regional growth.

•  Scenario 2: Complex •  Different growth rate for each DHHS area •  Blend between the regional and metropolitan growth

rates above, and recent growth observed at the regional level.

•  The change in Aboriginal population in each of the DHHS region between the 2011 and 2016 Census’s was not consistent, with large differences in the change observed. For example:

•  The Aboriginal population in Western Melbourne increased 9% per year from 2,438 to 3,553 individuals.

•  The Aboriginal population in Outer Gippsland decreased by 0.1% from 1,939 to 1,934

•  Interstate and inter-regional migration account for a small proportion of this (9% of change in Aboriginal population was due to interstate migration).

2 A


Taking into account the Census undercount rate of 15.8%, our model estimates that in 10 years there will be an additional 29k Aboriginal people or 16.6k Aboriginal households in Victoria

59,385

34,257

64,194

37,039

69,422

40,064

75,107

43,353

81,290

46,930

88,018

50,823

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Individuals (Estimated Residential Population) Households

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

Assumption and notes: •  Individual and household projections adjusted for Census undercount rate of 15.8% •  Regional growth rates calculated using forecast scenario 2 (complex)

2 B

Victorian Aboriginal population (individuals & households) projections (2018-2028F)


The model can be used to interrogate population growth across different regions

3,691

4,804 5,043

5,977

4,853

4,811

2,995 4,028

2,338

5,065

3,226

5,579

3,222

6,493

4,063

3,259

5,216

4,277

2,482

3,223

3,166

4,484 4,396

2,482

5,341

3,455

6,171

3,534

7,054

4,324

3,626

5,656

4,506

2,571

3,469

3,369

4,573 4,970 4,798

2,635

5,632

3,699

6,827

3,877

7,662

4,602

6,031

4,033

6,133

4,747

2,663

3,733 3,585

5,123 5,509

5,236

5,939

7,552

4,253

8,324

4,898

6,485

4,486

6,649

5,001

2,758 4,018 3,816

5,739 6,105

Western Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Ovens Murray

Brimbank Melton

Southern Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Bayside Peninsula

Goulburn

3,817

Loddon Mallee Barwon Outer Gippsland

Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

2,797 2,930

3,962 4,060

2,975

2,396 2,202

3,013 2,937

3,644

4,083 4,046

5,217 5,610

2020

2028

2022

2024

2026

Victorian Aboriginal population (individuals) projections, by DHHS region (2020-2028F)

2 B

Assumption and notes: •  Adjusted for Census undercount rate of 15.8% •  Regional growth rates calculated using forecast scenario 2 (complex)


The population growth model also disaggregates across age groups, however, projections by age are less robust

1,582 1,044

2,213

1,414

2,316

1,277

2,822

1,570 2,016

984

1,976 1,585

1,108 1,199 1,036 1,353

1,676

418

364

590

422

716

368

750

447

518

309

552

459

257 310

258

367

454

436

176

436

249

380

246

472

377

459

326

458

417

240 308

311

368

439

518

195

639

397

579

437

715

606

773

469

691

692

381 474

452

585

557 358

223

629

336

501

361

616

509

647

365

694

625

296

503 445

479

507

North Eastern

Melbourne

2,817

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

2,794

4,492

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Western Melbourne

Bayside Peninsula

Southern Melbourne



Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

2,282

Central Highlands

Barwon Brimbank Melton

3,312

3,634

2,001

4,506

2,689

5,374

3,510

4,414

2,453

4,372

3,777

2,502

3,152

13-17 years

0-5 years

6-12 years

25+ years

18 - 24 years

2 B

Victorian Aboriginal population (individuals) by age and DHHS region (2018F)

Assumption and notes: •  Adjusted for Census undercount rate of 15.8% •  Data by age groups does not equal estimated population as a small number of Aboriginal people who completed the Census did not provide their age


Our approach has involved: •  Identifying the total number of ‘Aboriginal

households’ living under the poverty line. ‒  ‘Aboriginal households’ are defined as a

household with at least one Aboriginal person ‒  The ‘poverty line’ is defined as being under

50% of the median household equivalised income (this adjusts for the number of children and adults in the house so it is possible to compare households of different sizes)

‒  The ‘poverty line’ defined above (not adjusted for housing costs) was $426 per week in 2016, and $395 in 2011.

•  Analysing data at regional and metropolitan regions, in line with our population growth modelling method

•  Census data indicates that the overall proportion of Aboriginal people living under the poverty line in Victoria is decreasing, and is reducing more in the regional than urban areas.

•  The total number of Aboriginal people living

under the poverty line is projected to increase, as population growth rate is greater than the decreasing poverty rate.

.

31%

38%

25% 24%

30%

19%

Total Regional Metro

2011 2016

To understand ‘vulnerability’, the population growth model also includes an estimate and forecast of households living under the poverty line

2 C

Change in the proportion of Aboriginal households living in under the poverty line (2011 vs 2016)

Estimating Vulnerability

Findings

•  Please note: We were unable to adjust for housing costs due to lack of publicly available data. This means projections are based on total income (equivalised) rather than disposable income (equivalised), and therefore likely underestimate poverty in regions with higher housing costs.


Combining changes in poverty with population growth forecasts, we can project the number of Aboriginal households living in poverty

2 C

Projected number of Aboriginal households living in poverty in Victoria (2018-2028F)

Assumption and notes: •  Population growth is increasing faster than poverty is decreasing so the total number of Aboriginal households living in poverty is projected to continue to

increase •  Baseline data comes from 2016 Census •  Household projections adjusted for Census undercount rate of 15.8% •  We are unable to adjust for housing costs due to lack of publicly available data. This means projections are based on total income (equivalised) rather

than disposable income (equivalised), and therefore likely underestimate poverty in regions with higher housing costs

7,292 7,486 7,688 7,900 8,120 8,351

34,257 37,039 40,064 43,353

46,930 50,823

Households living in poverty

Other households

2020 2018 2024 2022 2026 2028


The projections for household poverty have also been done at a regional level, capturing their unique environments

337

185

507

309

440

291

545

393

587

400

696

625

333

446 466 461 465

350

187

508

314

463

304

563

397

599

423

718

625

327

457

471 491 491

363

189

508

320

488

317

582

402

613

448

740

626

322

467 476

523 517

377

190

509

325

513

331

601

406

626

474

763

626

316

478 482

558 545

391

192

510

331

540

345

620

411

640

502

786

627

311

489 487

595 575

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Goulburn Southern Melbourne

Western Melbourne

Outer Gippsland

Hume Moreland

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Bayside Peninsula

Brimbank Melton

North Eastern

Melbourne

Ovens Murray

Loddon Mallee Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

Barwon

2 C

Assumption and notes: •  Population growth is increasing faster than poverty is decreasing so the total number of Aboriginal households living in poverty is projected to continue to

increase •  Baseline data comes from 2016 Census •  Regional growth rates calculated using forecast scenario 2 (complex) •  Regions with low or negative growth in the number of houses in poverty have population growth rate that are equal to orr less than poverty reduction

rates. •  We are unable to adjust for housing costs due to lack of publicly available data. This means projections are based on total income (equivalised) rather

than disposable income (equivalised), and therefore likely underestimate poverty in regions with higher housing costs

Projected number of Aboriginal households living in poverty in Victoria, by DHHS region (2020-2028F)

2020

2026

2022

2024

2028


Contents


Population Projections 2

Executive Summary 1

A B

Overview of the Methodology

Child & Family Sector C

Homelessness Sector D E

Family Violence Sector

Mental Health Sector F Justice Sector G

Alcohol & Other Drugs (AOD) Sector H Youth Sector I

Early Childhood Education Sector

Pages

3 - 10

11 - 22

23 - 75

24 - 25

26 - 31

32 - 41

42 - 46

47 - 51

52 - 56

57 - 62

63 - 68

69 - 75


For each of sector we have mapped available data and undertaken additional research to understand what is driving change

Service area data mapping Projected demand Policy context Service area

context

•  Identify available data for current demand and historical trends

•  Formal data request from government data custodians

•  Final output is projected demand for each service area

•  Explore drivers of need and change in each service area

•  Analyse service types and target cohorts

•  Identify other ACCOs offering similar services in each DHHS area

•  Identify past and future policy that may affect total demand and funding to Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisations (ACCOs)

3 A

SERVICE AREAS

CHILD & FAMILY

HOMELESSNESS JUSTICE YOUTH MENTAL HEALTH

ALCOHOL & OTHER DRUGS

FAMILY VIOLENCE

METHODOLOGY

EARLY EDUCATION


Data quality significantly varies by service area and should be acknowledged when interpreting results

25 |

•  The service delivery model projects demand for seven priority service areas using the best available data

•  The service delivery model uses different data sources for each of the service types that are project, and these range from low quality to high quality, affecting the accuracy of the projections

•  We have ranked the data quality of the data the model currently uses according to the following criteria defined by Taylor Fry: ‒  Low: A national or state rate applied to all regions

‒  Medium: Something in between low and high where we have data for some regions with higher rates using evidence that we regard as reasonable. In this level SEIFA is used to estimate the regions for which we have no data.

‒  High: Reasonably good estimate available at an LGA level for numbers of people requiring a service (e.g. if we have accurate data at the LGA or regional level such as Census data or data supplied by DHHS)

Service area Service type Data quality

Education Early childhood High

Child and family Services for vulnerable families

High

Out of home care High

Services for families in child protection system

Medium

Family Violence Family violence Medium

Justice Justice Medium

Homelessness Homelessness High

AOD AOD Low

Mental Health Mental health Low

Youth Youth engagement

High

Youth justice Medium

3 A


In the early education sector, there are different cohorts for which different types of support and education services are relevant

Any type of education program for children under 6 •  Indicator: All children aged 3 to 6

Early childhood education (for children at-risk) •  Indicator: Children under 6 not in school likely to be identified as

vulnerable in one or more domains (physical health, social competence, emotional maturity, language and cognitive skills & communication skills and general knowledge)

Early childhood education (before school) •  Indicator: Children under 6 not in school

The total number becomes smaller

across the three levels

3 B

EARLY EDUCATION


We have gained insights into the early education sector, particularly for children at-risk, including the drivers of changing demand

•  The Coalition of Australian Governments’ (COAG) six Closing the Gap targets for overcoming Indigenous disadvantage (with a further target added later) were agreed to in 2008. The enrolment of 95 per cent of all Indigenous four-year-old children in early childhood education by 2025.

•  SNAICC has identified a range of individual, systemic and cultural barriers to early childhood participation – including housing instability, income and employment and cultural safety, and has identified the importance for local Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander workers and leadership (e)

•  The Victorian Government has committed to the Marrung Aboriginal Education Plan 2016-2026, including increasing the number of Aboriginal three-year-old children in preschool programs, improving access to culturally responsive maternal and child health services (including through ACCOs), providing better supports to the Koori workforce, and improving participation of families in early years’ support programs (these are referenced separately in the “family service’ section of this analysis)

•  In Victoria in 2018 an estimated 4,379 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children were aged between 3 and 6 years old (a), of these:

•  1,622 (37%) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children were in their first year of primary school and 525 (12%) were not in school or early education.

•  2,264 (51%) were enrolled in a preschool program (does not include children who were enrolled in primary school). Approximately 74 per cent of these attended 600 hours or more per year, and 99 per cent of children eligible for four-year-old kinder were enrolled (b)

•  Vulnerability in early years has a large influence in later life, including education outcomes, with evidence of a gap between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children in Victoria.

•  40 per cent of Aboriginal students in Victoria are vulnerable in at least one area in their first year of school (compared to 20 per cent for non-Aboriginal students), and 25 per cent are vulnerable in two or more areas (compared to 10 per cent for non-Aboriginal students) (c)

•  The gap between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal students widens through primary and secondary school, requiring extra focus from policy makers to improve outcomes. In Year 3, 10 per cent of Aboriginal students are below national standards for reading and numeracy. By year 9, 15 to 20 per cent of Aboriginal students are below national standards (d).

•  To improve outcomes in child development and lifelong social and emotional wellbeing, research demonstrates the need for:

•  High-quality early education that is provided for at least two years before school, and adapted to be relevant and meaningful for Indigenous communities (e)

•  Integrated family support programs targeting the home environment that combine education, health and wellbeing with a holistic focus can improve child development outcomes, particularly if designed and delivered in ways that promote and uphold Aboriginal culture and community values (f)

Insights Drivers of change

a)  Census 2016 data estimated with this model b)  Productivity Commission, Report on Government Services, 2018 c)  Australian Early Development Census 2015 d)  NAPLAN (2018) Online interactive report, Accessed at https://reports.acara.edu.au/Home/Results e)  Harrison, L., Goldfeld, S., Metcalfe, E., & Moore, T. (2012). Early learning programs that promote children’s developmental and educational outcomes. Resource Sheet No. 15. f)  SNAICC. (2012a). Improved outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children and families in early childhood education and care services: Learning from good practice.

3 B

EARLY EDUCATION


Data identified Source Level Accessed

Aboriginal and Torres Strait children identified as vulnerable in their first school year Australian Early Childhood Census

DHHS region Selected

NAPLAN NAPLAN Vic Accessed

Number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait children aged between 3 and 6 years old Census LGA Selected

Number of children enrolled in 3 and 4 year old preschool education Report on Government Services

Vic Accessed

Pre-school participation rates Census Vic Not accessed but considered

Data from the Australian Early Childhood Census was used to estimate the proportion of Aboriginal children that are vulnerable in one or more key areas

Data selected The following data has been selected to be used to estimate demand for early education services for at-risk children: •  The number of children aged between three and six years old has been adjusted to estimate the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children that

are vulnerable and may require additional support to mainstream early childhood services. •  This involved using Census data and using proportions of vulnerable children by DHHS region using Australian Early Development Census and average of

data from 2015 and 2018.

3 B

EARLY EDUCATION


A number of ACCOs work in this space, offering a range of preschool programs for Aboriginal children including playgroups and early learning programs

29 |

ACCOs early education services

Outer Eastern Melbourne Boorndawan Willam Aboriginal Healing Service Mullum Mullum Indigenous Gathering Place

Inner Eastern Melbourne

North Eastern Melbourne Bubup Wilam for Early Learning Aboriginal Child and Family Centre VACCA

Hume Moreland VACCA

Western Melbourne VACCA

Brimbank Melton VACCA

Bayside Peninsula Dandenong and District Aborigines Co-operative VACCA

Southern Melbourne Dandenong and District Aborigines Co-operative Willum Warrain Gathering Place VACCA

Goulburn Rumbalara Aboriginal Co-operative Ltd

Ovens Murray Mungabareena Aboriginal Corporation (Wodonga)

Loddon Bendigo and District Aboriginal Co-operative Njernda Aboriginal Corporation

Mallee Mallee District Aboriginal Services Murray Valley Aboriginal Co-operative (Robinvale)

Outer Gippsland Gippsland and East Gippsland Aboriginal Co-operative Lakes Entrance Aboriginal Health Association

Inner Gippsland Gippsland and East Gippsland Aboriginal Co-operative Ramahyuck District Aboriginal Corporation

Wimmera South West

Dhauwurd Wurrung Elderly and Community Health Service (Portland) Goolum Goolum Aboriginal Co-operative (Horsham) Gunditjmara Aboriginal Cooperative Ltd (Warrnambool) Winda-Mara Aboriginal Corporation (Heywood)

Central Highlands Ballarat and District Aboriginal Co-operative

Barwon Wathaurong Aboriginal Co-operative

3 B

EARLY EDUCATION


228

99

373

186

291

215

375

308

399

211

394

346

201

272 247

264

301

129

66

248

128

192

118

237

188

253

140

269 243

127

192 170

184 203

51 27

88 63 69

45

99

55

103

63

105 109

65 95

80 83 66

Ovens Murray

Barwon Bayside Peninsula

North Eastern

Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Outer Gippsland

Western Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Inner Gippsland

Brimbank Melton

Southern Melbourne

Goulburn Loddon Mallee Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

Assumption and notes: •  Population growth projection – Adjusted for 15.8% undercount, and uses population growth rate scenario 2 assuming no additional growth •  The projection uses data from the Australian Early Development Census to estimate the number of children aged between 3 and 6 years old that are

vulnerable on one or more domains

3 B We estimate that of the 3,000~ Aboriginal children over 3 years old but not at school, 1,200~ will be identified as vulnerable when they start school

Early education and early childhood vulnerability: Current estimated demand (individuals) & by DHHS region (2018) Number of Aboriginal children aged 3 to 6 (estimated)

Aboriginal children aged 3 to 6 not enrolled in primary school (estimated)

Aboriginal children aged 3 to 6 not enrolled in primary school that are vulnerable (estimated)

EARLY EDUCATION


Assumption and notes: •  Population growth projection – Adjusted for 15.8% undercount, and uses population growth rate scenario 2 assuming no additional growth •  The projection uses data from the Australian Early Development Census to estimate the number of children aged between 3 and 6 years old that may be

vulnerable on one or more domains

3 B

Early education for vulnerable children: Projected demand (individuals) by DHHS region (2020-2028F)

We project that by 2028 there will be over 4,500 Aboriginal children of preschool age (over 3 years old but not in school), and 1,800 will be at-risk of being identified as vulnerable in their first year

56

29

93

68 76

49

108

59

111

70

114

68

102

85 93

73 61

31

98

72 85

54

117

63

119

77

121

70

110

91

105

81

32

94

127

67

128

86

134

73

118 117

90 79

37

114

89

114

71

150

76

148

107

158

141

78

137

109

147

110

87

39

121

95

127

78

163

81

160

119

171

149

81

147

116

165

122

Hume Moreland

Western Melbourne

Brimbank Melton

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Southern Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Ovens Murray

Bayside Peninsula

Goulburn Loddon Mallee Outer Gippsland

Central Highlands

Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

67

Barwon

127 124

103

78

59

115

96

2026

2020

2024

2022

2028

EARLY EDUCATION


In child and family services, we have grouped services according to the target client cohort and analysed the sector at three levels

Vulnerable families •  Indicator: Families

living in poverty

Families participating in child protection system •  Indicator: Families participating

in child protection system

Children in out of home care •  Indicator: Children in out of

home care

The total number of people in each service type becomes smaller across the three levels

3 C


We have gained insights that have informed our understanding of the drivers of need and change in child and family services

•  New mandatory reporting changes – new professions being added that may lead to increase in reports to child protection

•  Legislative changes are shortening the amount of time workers can spend with families

•  Victorian Government review of the risk assessment framework, which may result in a more risk averse approach resulting in more removals.

•  Funding for family services has not increased at the same rate as out of home care

•  3,711 (12.4%) Victorian Aboriginal children and young people are involved with child protection, ranging from 7.4% in Western Melbourne to 17.7% in Inner Gippsland. Approximately 46% of these children are in parental care and 50% are in out of home care(a).

•  The number of Aboriginal children in out of home care has risen by an average of 12.8% per year since 2013 (a). However, the number of children involved with child protection increased by only 4% in the past 12 months. The increasing number of children in out of home care is driven by age of entry into care, exists and re-entries into care, and length of time in care, all of which are worse for Aboriginal children.

•  The number of Aboriginal families with children living under the poverty line (4,102) (b) is close to the number of Aboriginal children and young people involved in child protection (3,711) (a) and the number family services cases funded for Aboriginal families by DHHS in 2018 (3,648)(c).

•  The Productivity Commission reports that 933 Aboriginal children aged 0-17 commenced Intensive Family Services in Victoria in 2017/2018. At this time 3,533 children were in the child protection system (d), therefore approximately 26% of children in child protection are involved in Intensive Family Services.

•  Poverty and homelessness identified as key structural drivers of out of home care

o  88% of children in out of home care have experienced family violence (e)

o  87% of children in out of home care have been exposed to drug or alcohol use (e)

o  One in four Aboriginal users of homelessness services was under ten years old (e)

o  The intergenerational effect of forced removals, with anecdotal evidence that a common factor is a parent having previously been in out of home care themselves (f)


(a)  Aboriginal Children's Forum February data pack (b)  ABS, Census 2016 (c)  Victorian Government, State Budget 2018 – 2019 (d)  Productivity Commission, Report on Government Services, 2019, Table 16A.32 (e)  Always Was, Always Will Be Koori Children: Systematic inquiry into services provided to Aboriginal children and young people in out-of-home care in Victoria (f)  Home, B. T. (1997). Report of the National Inquiry into the separation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children from their families. Sydney: Human Rights and Equal Opportunity

Commission.

3 C


Conversations with DHHS also provided a number of insights into future policy reform in child and family services

34 |

3 C

New program funding

Existing program funding

Aboriginal Children in Aboriginal Care (ACAC) / Section 18

Prevention and Early Intervention

Reduction in demand

•  Constrained by Vic Government budget changes, particularly with regards to reductions in available funds due to slow down in housing market. Previous budget increases unlikely to continue.

•  Many competing demands on a shrinking pool of funding (three Royal Commissions currently underway)

•  Transfer of program funding from mainstream to Aboriginal organisations is on the horizon, however speed of transfer is slow due to ‒  existing funded organisations unwilling to relinquish funding ‒  service contracts currently in place (and contract expiry date, typically 5 year contracts).

•  Vic Government working to increase support of mainstream organisations for ACCO-controlled programs. •  Rollout of ACAC expected to be mostly complete within this term of government (four years) •  Rollout of Section 18 is a longer-term horizon, impacted by capacity of ACCO‘s to become an authorised provider (2+ year process

with only 2 authorised providers currently in place). Self-determination principles preference local Aboriginal community organisations rather than a state-wide organisation, although role for larger organisations to plug gaps in the interim and build capacity, with a small amount of funding possible for the capacity building.

•  Demand for services is increasing rapidly, and it will be challenging to scale ACCOs quickly enough and will require capacity building support to meet demand

•  Constrained by Vic Government budget changes, particularly with regards to reductions in available funds due to slow down in housing market. Previous budget increases unlikely to continue

•  Vic Govt made broad commitments to prevention and early intervention during their election campaign

•  NSW Government made legislative changes and set goals around reduction in demand supported by focused casework and investment in prevention and early intervention, that have led to significant reductions in demand over a short time-frame (not specifically Aboriginal focused)

•  Vic Government wishes to reduce demand, with a key area of focus in the reduction of kids in residential care. Budget commitments to address this will likely be in the areas of early intervention, family reunification and intensive support, in future budgets during this term of government.

•  Vic Government is reviewing their risk assessment framework in child protection, focusing on risk rather than reducing demand. Tthis will impact when and how many kids are taken into care, potentially leading to an increase in demand in out of home care.


Data identified Source Accessed

Families with children living in poverty Census Accessed

Families in which both adults are unemployed Census Accessed

Number of children in out of home care/child protection (and a range of other data about these services)

Aboriginal Children’s Forum Accessed

Number of Aboriginal families accessing Early Childhood Intervention services DHHS Request not received

Number of Aboriginal families receiving Intensive Family Services Productivity Commission, Aboriginal Children’s Forum

Accessed

Number of cases of family services funded by the Victorian Government Vic Govt Budget paper Accessed

Data not available or not sufficiently reliable •  Housing and homelessness as it relates to child protection is not available (Family Matters report) •  Family services delivery data reported to DHHS is not good quality and therefore unreliable (Aboriginal Children’s Forum)

We have mapped and reviewed multiple available data, & identified the best available sources for projecting demand for child and family services

Data selected The model uses the following data to project demand for three service groups: •  Services for vulnerable families

•  Families with children living in poverty •  Services for children in Out of Home Care

•  Number of children in out of home care including average annual growth rates •  Services for families in child protection

•  Number of children in child protection disaggregated into DHHS regions (using OOHC ratios), divided by the current percentage of Aboriginal families participating in Intensive Family Services

3 C


3,757

1,868

883

4,058

2,246

1,035

4,385

2,636

1,193

4,740

3,040

1,358

5,126

3,965

1,529

5,546

3,893

1,636

Projected demand for services for vulnerable families

Projected demand for out of home care Projected demand for services for families in child protection system

Assumption and notes: •  Population growth projection - Scenario 2 (complex) •  Projections are based on the following data:

‒  Services for vulnerable families - Families with children living in poverty (reduction in poverty rate has not been applied to this data) ‒  Services for children in Out of Home Care - Number of children in out of home care including average annual growth rates ‒  Services for families in child protection - Number of children in child protection disaggregated into DHHS regions (using OOHC ratios), divided by

the current percentage of Aboriginal families participating in Intensive Family Services

2024

2020

2018

2026

2022

2028

The model analyses data at the state-level, and can allow comparison across the different service types in child and family services

3 C

Child & Family Services (family services): Projected demand (individuals) in Victoria (2020-2028F)


We have also mapped where other ACCOs are delivering child and family services in each DHHS area to inform model analysis

37 |

ACCOs providing services Family services Out of home care

Outer Eastern Melbourne Boorndawan Willam Aboriginal Healing Service VACCA VACCA


North Eastern Melbourne VACCA VACCA

Hume Moreland VACCA VACCA

Western Melbourne VACCA VACCA

Brimbank Melton VACCA VACCA

Bayside Peninsula VACCA VACCA

Southern Melbourne Dandenong and District Aborigines Co-operative Willum Warrain Gathering Place VACCA

VACCA

Goulburn Rumbalara Aboriginal Co-operative Ltd Rumbalara Aboriginal Co-operative Ltd

Ovens Murray Mungabareena Aboriginal Corporation VACCA VACCA


Bendigo and District Aboriginal Co-operative Njernda Aboriginal Corporation

Mallee Mallee District Aboriginal Services Mallee District Aboriginal Services

Outer Gippsland Gippsland and East Gippsland Aboriginal Co-operative VACCA VACCA

Inner Gippsland Ramahyuck District Aboriginal Corporation VACCA VACCA

Wimmera South West

Dhauwurd Wurrung Elderly and Community Health Service (Portland) Goolum Goolum Aboriginal Co-operative (Horsham) Gunditjmara Aboriginal Cooperative Ltd (Warrnambool) Winda-Mara Aboriginal Corporation (Heywood

Winda-Mara Aboriginal Corporation (Heywood)


Barwon Wathaurong Aboriginal Co-operative Wathaurong Aboriginal Co-operative

3 C


155

75

252

153

205

154

261

208

281

185

322

352

179

237 240 251 247

76

29

143

72 78 88

100

140 145

73

196

130 115

131 130

93

129

36 14

66

34 38 42 48 65 68

36

93

60 52 62 61

46 63

North Eastern

Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Western Melbourne

Inner Gippsland

Southern Melbourne

Brimbank Melton

Hume Moreland

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Wimmera South West

Bayside Peninsula



Central Highlands

Barwon

Assumption and notes: •  Population growth projection - Scenario 2 (complex) •  Analysis is based on the number of families with children living in poverty, and that growth in families needing intensive family support increases at the

same •  Analysis of support for families in child protection system is based on the total number of children in child protection disaggregated into DHHS regions

(using OOHC ratios), divided by the current percentage of Aboriginal families participating in Intensive Family Services

Family support

Out of home care

Services for families in child protection system

Current demand for family services is estimated to be the highest in the Loddon, Mallee & Goulburn regions

3 C

Child & Family Services (Family Services): Current estimated demand (individuals) by DHHS region (2018)


Assumption and notes: •  This projection uses population growth scenario 2 (complex) and assumes that poverty will decrease at 1% a year (although total number of people living in

poverty will increase due to population growth) •  Projection is based on the number of families with children living in poverty

169

79

265

164

227

169

284

221

303

206

349 371

185

255 255 281 273

185

84

280

175 185

308

236

325

230

378 391

192

275 272

315 303

202

89

295

188

278

203

335

251

350

255

410 412

199

296 289

352 336

220

95

311

201

308

223

364

267

376

284

445 434

206

318 308

395 372

240

101

328

215

340

245

395

284

404

316

482 457

213

343 327

442 413

North Eastern

Melbourne

Bayside Peninsula

Brimbank Melton

Western Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Southern Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Inner Gippsland

Loddon Hume Moreland


Mallee Outer Gippsland

Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

Barwon

251

2020

2026

2022

2024

2028

Projected demand for services for vulnerable families is highest in regional areas with high Aboriginal populations such as Loddon, Goulburn and Mallee

3 C

Child & Family Services (Family Services): Projected demand (individuals), by DHHS region (2020-2028F)


Assumption and notes: •  This projection uses population growth scenario 2 (complex) and assumes that growth in out of home care continues to increase by an average of 10%

per year with no additional growth •  The projection is based on the number of children in out of home care including the average annual growth rate for the past five years

92

34

169

86 96 90

237

109

40

194

100 115 128

143

193 204

108

279

177 152

184 179

140

190

127

45

221

115 135

149 165

221 234

128

323

200

171

212 205

165

224

146

51

248

130 155

171 189

249 266

148

368

225

189

241 231

193

259

165

57

275

146

178 194

213

278 298

170

415

249

208

270 258

222

296

Hume Moreland

North Eastern

Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Brimbank Melton

Western Melbourne

153

Bayside Peninsula

Southern Melbourne

Goulburn

159

Ovens Murray

Outer Gippsland

Loddon

154

Mallee Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

116

Central Highlands

133 121

Barwon

166 174 157

107

2024

2020

2026

2022

2028

The number of children in OOHC is projected to continue to grow faster than population growth, with Loddon forecast to have the most children in care

3 C

Child & Family Services (OOHC): Projected demand (individuals), by DHHS region (2020-2028F)


Projected demand for services for services for families in child protection system by DHHS area •  This projection uses scenario 2 and assumes that growth in families needing intensive family support increases at 8.5% per year (based on Aboriginal

Children’s Forum data) •  Sector analysis is based on the total number of children in child protection disaggregated into DHHS regions (using OOHC ratios), divided by the current

percentage of Aboriginal families participating in Intensive Family Services

43

16

76

39 46

51 56

76 80

43

110

69 59

73 70

55

75

50

18

86

45 54

59 65

86 92

51

127

78 66

83 80

66

89

57

20

96

51 62

68 74

97 104

59

145

87 73

95 90

77

103

65

22

107

57 71

77 84

108 117

68

164

97 80

106 101

89

118

73

25

118

63

81 87

94

120 130

77

184

106

87

119 112

102

134

Western Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Barwon Inner Eastern

Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Brimbank Melton

Bayside Peninsula

Southern Melbourne



Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

2022

2020

2024

2026

2028

Loddon is also forecast to have the highest demand for intensive family services, due to the high number of children currently in care in that region

3 C

Child & Family Services (Intensive): Projected demand (individuals), by DHHS region (2020-2028F)


•  Family violence rates increase significantly (more than 10% per year since 2013) after the Family Violence Royal Commission due to changes in reporting, however anecdotal reports suggest it is unlikely this spike will continue to increase at the same rate over next decade

•  DHHS expects to open the 12 remaining Orange Door programs

•  Anecdotal evidence from the Orange Door program in Frankston suggests that it has led to a significant increase in referrals for Aboriginal families to Integrated Family Services, in part due to better identification of Aboriginal status and more awareness of culturally safe services, and an associated need for more family violence case management services.

•  The Victorian Government remains committed to implementing all of the recommendations from the Royal Commission into family violence, some have been implemented with many still in progress or not yet commenced.

•  Crime Statistics Agency cautions that data quality has declined over time as there are many police incident records with missing Indigenous status

•  Data about access by Aboriginal men, women and children to Victorian Government funded family violence services was very unreliable at the time of the Royal Commission, as Aboriginal status was not consistently recorded.

•  AIHW has also identified limited data about the extent and impact of family violence for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders as an ongoing problem.

•  Of the available statistics, in 2018 (a):

•  The top 6 LGAs for family violence incidents with a child present were: Mildura (124 ), East Gippsland (121), Greater Shepparton (67), Swan Hill (62), Latrobe (60) and Darebin (39). The average across all other LGA’s is 4 incidents.

•  29% of incidents recorded had a child present.

•  Family Violence Prevention Legal Services Victoria routinely sees Aboriginal clients, mostly women, who experience family violence at the hands of men from a range of different backgrounds and cultures.


(a)  Crime Statistics Victoria

In the family violence sector, lack of data is identified across the board as a key challenge, due to challenges around reporting and disclosure

3 D


Our data mapping, and conversations with Family Safety Victoria, have identified police data and DHHS service usage data as the best available sources

43 |

3 D

Data identified Source Level Access

Incidents of family violence Victoria Mental Health report Victoria Accessed

Number of Aboriginal perpetrators of family violence Crime Statistics Agency LGA (Top 30) Accessed

Number of Aboriginal affected family members by LGA, including child present flag (L17) (2014 – 2018)

Crime Statistics Agency LGA (Top 23) Accessed

Number of Aboriginal families accessing family violence services DHHS/Family Safety Victoria DHHS region Request unsuccessful

Number of Aboriginal men accessing perpetrator services DHHS/Family Safety Victoria DHHS region Request unsuccessful

Courts data – Family Violence court, Magistrates Court, Children’s Court Relevant courts - Not accessed

Data selected The model uses the “Aboriginal affected family members” data supplied by Crime Statistics Victoria. However, due to confidentially, Crime Statistics Victoria only supplied the top 23 LGA’s in Victoria (these represented xx percentage of all incidents). Taylor Fry advised on the best approach for estimating demand in the other LGA’s, using this data, total population and the SEIFA index. When the data requests have been finalised we will consider the best approach for including this information, the options will be: •  Replacing the data in model with the service usage data •  Using both sets of data in the model to enable comparison of police incidents and service usage (could enable identification of service gaps depending on

the quality of the data) •  Crime Statistics Victoria cautions that data quality is low due to a high number of family violence incidents with no Indigenous status recorded


127 109

298

96

190

249

317

166

418

149

266

758

402

294 312

176

108

Western Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Mallee North Eastern

Melbourne

Bayside Peninsula

Brimbank Melton

Southern Melbourne


Loddon Outer Gippsland

Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

Barwon

Assumption and notes: •  Population growth projection - Scenario 2 (complex) and assumes growth increases at the same rate as population growth •  Analysis is based on reported incidents on family violence experienced by Aboriginal people (e.g. victims of family violence) •  Crime Statistics Victoria cautions that data quality is low due to a high number of family violence incidents with no Indigenous status recorded.

Mildura and Swan Hill were two of the top LGAs for recorded family violence incidents in 2018

Family violence service demand

We estimate that there are over 5,000 Aboriginal people who currently require family violence support services in Victoria. Mallee has by far the highest demand for family violence services

3 D

Family Violence: Current estimated demand (individuals) by DHHS region (2018)


ACCOs providing services Family violence services

Outer Eastern Melbourne Boorndawan Willam Aboriginal Healing Service VACCA


North Eastern Melbourne VACCA

Hume Moreland VACCA

Western Melbourne VACCA

Brimbank Melton VACCA

Bayside Peninsula VACCA

Southern Melbourne VACCA


Ovens Murray Albury Wodonga Aboriginal Health Service Mungabareena Aboriginal Corporation


Mallee Mallee District Aboriginal Services

Outer Gippsland

Inner Gippsland VACCA

Wimmera South West Goolum Goolum Aboriginal Co-operative (Horsham)



VACCA is the only ACCO in many regions – servicing two of the four regions with the highest demand

3 D


Assumption and notes: •  This projection uses scenario 2 and assumes growth increases at the same rate as population growth •  Analysis is based on reported incidents on family violence experienced by Aboriginal people (e.g. victims of family violence) •  Crime Statistics Victoria cautions that data quality is low due to a high number of family violence incidents with no Indigenous status recorded.

138

314

210

273

345 449

289

798

151 123

331

110

232

299

375

188

483

185

313

841

431

341 353

221

132

165

131

349

118

257

329

407

200

520

206

339

886

447

367 375

247

147 180 139

368

126

284

360

442

213

559

229

368

933

463

395 400

277

163 196

388 314 395

480

601

255

983

479 425 425

310

180

North Eastern

Melbourne

Southern Melbourne

Loddon Western Melbourne

332

Hume Moreland

Bayside Peninsula

Goulburn

197

Ovens Murray

Mallee

135

Wimmera South West

Outer Gippsland

Central Highlands

148

Barwon

317

103

Brimbank Melton

177 166

416

116

399

119

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

227

Inner Gippsland

2024

2020

2026

2022

2028

3 D

Family Violence: Projected demand (individuals), by DHHS region (2020-2028F)

If current trends continue, Mallee, Loddon, Bayside Peninsula and North Eastern Melbourne would represent 51% of the total demand


We have also gained insights that our understanding of the drivers of need and change in the homelessness sector

•  Aboriginal Housing Victoria have projected how much social housing needs to be built to meet the growing need in Victoria, identifying an immediate shortfall, 1,438 houses, and a minimum of 5,085 by 3036. Availability of social housing will affect demand for homelessness services (h)

•  Data varies significantly. We found a number of different estimations of Aboriginal homelessness in Victoria:

o  Productivity Commission reported 6,114 Aboriginal people experienced homelessness in Victoria in 2018 (a), whilst 10,885 accessed specialised homelessness services. The number of Aboriginal people accessing homelessness services in Victoria has increased by 25% since 2013/2014.

o  ABS estimates 1,040 Aboriginal people were experiencing homelessness on Census 2016 (b)

o  DHHS reports that 6,769 Aboriginal households (e.g. ‘presenting units’) accessed homelessness services in Victoria in 2017/2018, 39% who were still homeless after support (c)

o  27% of Aboriginal “presenting units” accessing homelessness services in Victoria have children, 67% are a lone person (d)

o  10% of people seeking homelessness services in Victoria are Aboriginal people (e)

•  Overcrowded housing is a key driver of homelessness – in Victoria the rates of this for Aboriginal households are 18% in urban areas and 16% in regional areas (f)

•  The mains reason for seeking assistance from homelessness services was for domestic and family violence (28%), following by a housing crisis (16%) and financial difficulties (14%) (g)


(a)  Productivity Commission, Report on Government Services, House and Homelessness services Table 19A.36 (b)  Productivity Commission, Report on Government Services, House and Homelessness services Table 19A.36 (c)  Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Census (d)  DHHS and Council for Homeless Persons http://chp.org.au/services/capacity-building/making-numbers-count-data-resources/ (e)  Victorian Aboriginal Housing and Homelessness Summit, Discussion paper 6: Homelessness (f)  AIHW, Specialist Homelessness Services, Supplementary Data Table Specialist homelessness services 2017–18 (AIHW 2018 (g)  AIHW, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people: a focus report on housing and homelessness (h)  Aboriginal Housing Victoria

3 E


The model uses data provided by DHHS, however, due to lack of granularity of the information provided some adjustments were made


Aboriginal people experiencing homelessness (2014 – 2018) Productivity Commission Vic Accessed

Aboriginal people accessing homelessness services DHHS DHHS areas (metro regions combined)

Accessed

Aboriginal people experiencing homelessness ABS – Census LGA Accessed

Aboriginal people accessing homelessness services and number of support periods

AIHW Vic Accessed

Rental stress Census LGA Analysis considered

Data selected The model uses the data supplied by DHHS at the area level. However, this data consolidates the eight metropolitan regions to four sub-regions (e.g. Hume Moreland and North Eastern Melbourne were combined into the “Northern sub-region”). To disaggregate this to the eight metropolitan regions we divided homelessness service usage data by the proportion of the Aboriginal population in each of the metro sub-regions. Therefore, the data for the metropolitan regions is an estimate of service usage based on the proportion of the population that lives in that region, rather than exact figures.

3 E


224 156

904

592

335

179

897

568

365

582

950

739

990

683

194

287

475

Wimmera South West

Hume Moreland

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Brimbank Melton

Barwon Western Melbourne

Bayside Peninsula

Southern Melbourne



Inner Gippsland

Central Highlands

Assumption and notes: •  This projection uses population growth scenario 2 (complex) and assumes that need increases by 6% •  The model uses the data supplied by DHHS at the area level for where homelessness services were accessed. Therefore, data is skewed by the

availability and location of homelessness services. •  This data consolidated the eight metropolitan regions to four ‘areas’ (e.g. Hume Moreland and North Eastern Melbourne were combined into the

“Northern sub-region”), that have been disaggregated back to DHHS regions to based on the population proportions.

Homelessness service demand

3 E

Homelessness: Current estimated demand (individuals), by DHHS region (2018)

We estimate that there more than 9,000 people in need of homelessness services in Victoria


ACCOs providing services Homelessness

Outer Eastern Melbourne


North Eastern Melbourne VACCA Bert Willams Aboriginal Youth Services (BWAYS)

Hume Moreland VACCA Bert Willams Aboriginal Youth Services (BWAYS)

Western Melbourne Bert Willams Aboriginal Youth Services (BWAYS)

Brimbank Melton Bert Willams Aboriginal Youth Services (BWAYS)

Bayside Peninsula Ngwala Willumbong Cooperative

Southern Melbourne Ngwala Willumbong Cooperative


Ovens Murray

Loddon Bendigo and District Aboriginal Co-operative


Outer Gippsland Gippsland and East Gippsland Aboriginal Co-operative


Wimmera South West

Central Highlands


3 E It appears that currently not many ACCOs operate in the homelessness sector, with many regions serviced by mainstream providers only


252

984 1,005

1,059

331

543

282 187

1,067

719

432

228

1,120

682

447

760

870

1,129

838

233

380

616

313

203

1,152

787

487

255

1,241

743

491

860

1,308

939

1,201

921

254

433

695

348

220

1,241

859

547

284

1,371

806

537

970

1,442

1,011

1,274

1,009

275

491

384

1,332

934

611

1,509

872

586

1,090

1,585

1,085

1,348

1,102

298

555

875

Western Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Bayside Peninsula

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

654

Southern Melbourne

315

Brimbank Melton

Goulburn Barwon Ovens Murray


Hume Moreland

Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

758

Central Highlands

171

382

203

624

781

667

405

1,062

1,181

804

213

North Eastern

Melbourne

238

2020

2028

2022

2024

2026

3 E In 10 years, the need for homelessness support services by Aboriginal people is projected to rise by more than 50 per cent

Assumption and notes: •  This projection uses population growth scenario 2 (complex) and assumes that need increases by 6% •  The model uses the data supplied by DHHS at the area level for where homelessness services were accessed. Therefore, data is skewed by the availability

and location of homelessness services. •  This data consolidated the eight metropolitan regions to four ‘areas’ (e.g. Hume Moreland and North Eastern Melbourne were combined into the “Northern

sub-region”), that have been disaggregated back to DHHS regions to based on the population proportions.

Homelessness: Projected demand (individuals), by DHHS region (2020-2028F)


We have also gained insights that our understanding of the drivers of need and change in the justice sector

•  In Victoria, the Aboriginal Justice Agreement (AJA) partnership between government and the Victorian Aboriginal community has been running since 2000. Evaluation AJA Phase 3 demonstrated that successful initiatives are built on local leadership, programs that employ Aboriginal staff and community ownership of initiatives.

•  AJA Phase 4, Burra Lotjpa Dungaludja makes a commitment to “An Aboriginal community controlled justice sector” with clear targets including:

•  Reduce the number of Aboriginal adults under justice supervision by at least 344 by 2023

•  Reduce the number of Aboriginal children under youth justice supervision by at least 43 by 2023.

•  Key indicators relate to early intervention, diversion and rehabilitation

•  Policy and legislative changes designed to enhance community safety has led to an increase in the number of Victorians in the justice system, including Aboriginal people in Victoria. These include changes to legislation related to family violence, bail, suspected sentences and community corrections orders.

•  As with other service areas, crime statistics data are unreliable with 20% of cases having no Aboriginal status recorded.

•  Available corrections data shows 690 Aboriginal prisoners in Victoria in 2017-2018. Aboriginal women were 13.4% of all female prisoners and Aboriginal men were 8.6% of all male prisoners, with an average age of 34 years old (a)

•  Available Aboriginal offender data shows:

•  3,525 alleged offenders in 2018 (b), with 933 convicted offenders in FY17/18 (c)

•  In 2018, the 77% of offenders were men and 23% women (c)

•  57% have previously been in jail (c)

•  The number of offenders has increased by 185% since 2008, from 348 to 933 (c)

•  Recidivism, driven by socio-economic disadvantage and intergenerational poverty, is a significant contributor to Aboriginal over-representation in the justice system. Contributing factors identified included (d) :

•  Education – Over half of young people in custody had previously been expelled or suspended from school.

•  Employment – Half of all first time offenders were unemployed at the time of their arrest.

•  Mental health – 72% of Aboriginal men and 92% of Aboriginal women in prison had received a lifetime diagnosis of mental illness.


(a)  Corrections Victoria, Annual Prisoner Statistical Profile (b)  Crime Statistics Victoria, Indigenous alleged offender incidents 2014 – 2018 (c)  Corrections Victoria, Annual Offender Statistical Profile (d)  Victorian Aboriginal Justice Agreement Phase 4

3 F


We used annual offender data from Corrections Victoria and adjusted it to match DHHS regions


Indigenous alleged offender incidents (2014 – 2018) Crime Statistics Victoria LGA Accessed

Number of unique offenders and average number of offences Crime Statistics Victoria Victoria Accessed

Annual Prisoner Statistical Profile (2007 – 2018) Corrections Victoria Victoria and DoJ regions

Accessed

Annual Offender Statistical Profile (2007 – 2018) Corrections Victoria Victoria and DoJ regions

Accessed

Burra Lotjpa Dunguludja – Victorian Aboriginal Justice Agreement Phase 4

Victoria Accessed

Data selected The model uses the annual offender data supplied by Corrections Victoria, to estimate a rate per 100,000 of the total population. The data provided by Corrections Victoria is aggregated to the level of Department of Justice region. To change this aggregation to DHHS area for the purposes of this model and in the absence of better data, we have used SEIFA and the data we do have at the Department of Justice regional area, to estimate demand at the level of DHHS area.

3 F


30

22

69

42

66

39

49

33

59

33

95

85

63

73

54

85

57

Brimbank Melton

Bayside Peninsula

Western Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Southern Melbourne



Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

Barwon

Assumption and notes: •  Population growth projection - Scenario 2 (complex) and assumes growth increases at the same rate as population growth •  Analysis is based on annual offender data from Corrections Victoria.

Justice service demand

3 F There are approximately 1,000 Aboriginal offenders in Victoria, with the highest number estimated to be in Loddon and Central Highlands

Justice: Current estimated demand (individuals) by DHHS region (2018)


ACCOs providing services Justice



North Eastern Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Western Melbourne

Brimbank Melton


Southern Melbourne Ngwala Willumbong Cooperative VACCA


Ovens Murray Mungabareena Aboriginal Corporation

Loddon

Mallee Mallee District Aboriginal Services Murray Valley Aboriginal Co-operative (Robinvale)

Outer Gippsland Lakes Entrance Aboriginal Health Association


Wimmera South West Dhauwurd Wurrung Elderly and Community Health Service (Portland) Goolum Goolum Aboriginal Co-operative (Horsham)



3 F There are many regional gaps in availability of justice programs delivered by an ACCO in Victoria


Assumption and notes: •  This projection uses population growth scenario 2 (complex) and assumes growth increases at the same rate as population growth •  Analysis is based on annual offender data from Corrections Victoria.

33 23

73

45

73

43

53

35

64

37

103

90

66

79

58

95

63

36 24

77

48

81

47

58

37

69

41

112

94

68

85

62

107

70

39

26

81

52

90

52

63

39

74

46

121

100

70

91

66

120

77

43

28

86

55

99

57

68

42

79

51

132

105

73

98

70

134

86

46

29

90

59

110

62

74

45

85

57

143

110

76

106

74

150

95

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Wimmera South West

Southern Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Western Melbourne

Brimbank Melton

Bayside Peninsula



Inner Gippsland

Central Highlands

Barwon

2020

2026

2028

2022

2024

3 F

Justice: Projected demand (individuals), by DHHS region (2020-2028F)

In line with Aboriginal population growth, we expect to see the number of unique offender incidences in Victoria to double in 10 years


We have also gained insights that informed our understanding of the drivers of need and change in the mental health sector

•  The National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Leadership in Mental Health (NATSILMH) launched the Gayaa Dhuwi (Proud Spirit) Declaration in 2015 (Endorsed by Australian Governments in the Fifth National Mental Health and Suicide Prevention Plan). Gayaa Dhuwi identifies that:

“Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander presence and leadership is required across all parts of the Australian mental health system for it to adapt to, and be accountable to, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples for the achievement of the highest attainable standard of mental health and suicide prevention outcomes”

•  In addition to the initiatives identified in Balit Murrup, future funding will be allocated under the new policy: Supporting Aboriginal Self-determination: Prioritising Funding to Aboriginal Organisations.

•  The Mental Health Royal Commission process has commenced and the Vic Government has committed to implementing all recommendations. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Victoria are identified in the terms of reference as a key area of focus due to the greater likelikhood of experiencing poor mental health. Recommendations around culturally informed service delivery are anticipated, with release scheduled for late 2020.

•  The impact of colonisation, intergenerational trauma and ongoing social, cultural and political marginalisation in Australia has driven experiences of poor mental ill-health for many Aboriginal people in Victoria, with 36% of Aboriginal Victorians reporting high or very high levels of psychological distress (an estimated 21,000 people in 2018) (a).

•  A national review of mental health services found that general population services and programmes do not meet the social and emotional wellbeing needs of Aboriginal people, and do not ensure a connected transition through the mental health system (b).

•  The Victorian Mental Health Annual Report reports that 1,894 Aboriginal people accessed mental health services, and 156 accessed mental health community support services in 2017 – 2018. Four partnership projects between Aboriginal community-controlled organistions and local health services are underway, aimed at better meeting mental health and social and emotional wellbeing needs (c).

•  We estimate demand for mental health community support services to be approximately 3,400 Aboriginal people in 2019, if all those who needed support (those in high or very high psychological distress) accessed community support services at the same rate as all Victorians (16% of people accessing mental health services)(c). A lack of services means actual demand is unknown, however better data will be available following the Victorian Mental Health Royal Commission)

•  60% of children in Out of Home Care came to the attention of child protection as a result of parental mental health issues in combination with other risk factors (f)

•  Analysis of service delivery commissioned by DHHS in 2017 found that 37% of all Aboriginal clients who accessed tertiary clinical mental health services were aged less than 25 years in 2016/2017, of these,13% were aged 10 years or less. At the time of the analysis, LGAs with high Aboriginal populations receiving no funding for Aboriginal mental health services, included Hume, Frankston, Mornington Peninsula, Melton, Brimbank, Moreland and Cardinia. (h)


a)  Victorian Government Aboriginal Affairs Report 2018 b)  National Mental Health Commission. (2014). Report of the National Review of Mental Health Programmes and Services: Contributing Lives, Thriving Communities. c)  Victorian Mental Health Annual Report 2017 - 2018 d)  Taskforce 1000 e)  Frizzell, J, December 2017, Aboriginal Alcohol and Other Drug and Mental Health Mapping Project, prepared for DHHS

3 G


Good quality data at a regional level is hard to access in for this sector. Data related to Aboriginal people in Victoria that are experiencing high or very high psychological distress is used as a proxy for demand

58 |


•  Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander access to mental health services (Adults by LGA or DHHS region)

•  Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander access to mental health services (12 – 17yo, 18 – 25yo, LGA or DHHS region)

DHHS LGA Request underway

Percentage of Aboriginal Victorians with high or very high levels of psychological distress

Victorian Government Aboriginal Affairs Report

Vic Accessed

Percentage of Aboriginal Victorian young people (15 – 24) with high or very high levels of psychological distress

AIHW Vic Accessed

Data selected The model currently projects the demand for mental health services using an estimate of demand that is the proportion of Aboriginal people in Victoria that are experiencing high or very high psychological distress, and applying this proportion at the level of DHHS area. This proxy has been selected due to a lack of available data. The model also enables users to input how many people experiencing high or very high psychological distress in Victoria would be likely access community mental health services that may be provided within a community organisation (as compared to a clinical context). This acknowledges that there is a spectrum of mental health services depending on a person’s need, and that a person’s need may be too acute for community support services. This has been informed by the National Mental Health Commission review of National Review of Mental Health Programmes and Services undertaken on 2015, and data from the 2017-2018 Victorian Government Mental Health Report about the number of people (all not Aboriginal) that accessed community based mental health services. The model assumes that 16% of mental health patients access community based mental health support services. This assumption has been made due to a lack of available services meaning the actual demand is unknown. These assumptions can be adjusted as better data becomes available, particularly following the conclusion of the Mental Health Royal Commission. However, model users can adjust this amount, making an assumption that it is higher (or lower) due to: a)  Aboriginal people will be more likely to access mental health services delivered by an Aboriginal organisation, or b)  Community mental health services are underfunded in Victoria and do not meet current demand.

3 G


1,217

747

1,640

1,013

1,641

964

1,981

1,291

1,625

948

1,597

1,387

833

1,002 1,006

1,171

1,314

195 119

262 162

263 154

317 207

260 152

256 222 133 160 161 187 210

Brimbank Melton

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Hume Moreland

North Eastern

Melbourne

Southern Melbourne

Western Melbourne

Bayside Peninsula


Loddon Mallee Central Highlands

Outer Gippsland

Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

Barwon

Assumption and notes: •  Population growth projection - Scenario 2 (complex) and assumes no additional growth (in addition to population growth) •  Data is currently based on the number of Aboriginal people in Victoria that are experiencing high or very high psychological distress and estimating the

proportion of those that would access community support services (if they accessed these at the same rate as the general population). This assumption has been made due to a lack of available services meaning the actual demand is unknown. These assumptions can be adjusted as better data becomes available, particularly following the conclusion of the Mental Health Royal Commission.

Demand for mental health services

Community mental health service demand

3 G

Mental Health: Current estimated demand (individuals), by DHHS region (2018)

We estimate that there are approximately 3,000 Aboriginal people in need of community mental health support services in Victoria


Assumption and notes: •  This projection uses population growth scenario 2 (complex) and assumes no additional growth (in addition to population growth) •  Data is currently based on the number of Aboriginal people in Victoria that are experiencing high or very high psychological distress, and estimating the

proportion of those that would access community support services (if they accessed these at the same rate as the general population). This assumption has been made due to a lack of available services meaning the actual demand is unknown. These assumptions can be adjusted as better data becomes available, particularly following the conclusion of the mental health royal commission.

1,329

1,729 1,816

2,152

1,747 1,732

1,078

1,312

1,450

842

1,824 2,008

2,338

1,878 1,878

894

1,160

1,470

1,583

893

1,923

1,244

2,222

1,272

2,539

1,557

2,019

1,305

2,036

1,622

925

1,249 1,213

1,789 1,727

949

2,027

1,332

2,458

1,396

2,758

1,657

2,171

1,452

2,208

1,709

959

1,344 1,291

1,983 1,885

2,138

2,719

1,531

2,997

1,763

2,334

1,615

2,394

1,800

993

1,446

1,374

2,066 2,198

Central Highlands

North Eastern

Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Southern Melbourne

Brimbank Melton

Bayside Peninsula


1,071

Loddon Outer Gippsland

Mallee Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

1,374

Barwon

793

1,007 1,085 1,055 1,057

1,462

863

Western Melbourne

1,426

1,646 1,456

1,844

1,161

1,540 1,614 1,463

1,173 1,140 1,160

2022

2020

2028

2026

2024

3 G

Mental Health: Projected demand (individuals), by DHHS region (2020-2028F)

At current rates, more than 31,000 Aboriginal people will be experiencing high or very high psychological distress, and be potential users of clinical or community mental health support services


Assumption and notes: •  This projection uses population growth scenario 2 (complex) and assumes no additional growth (in addition to population growth) •  Data is currently based on the number of Aboriginal people in Victoria that are experiencing high or very high psychological distress, and estimating the

proportion of those that would access community support services (if they accessed these at the same rate as the general population). This assumption has been made due to a lack of available services meaning the actual demand is unknown. These assumptions can be adjusted as better data becomes available, particularly following the conclusion of the mental health royal commission.

213

277 290

344

280 277

173

210 232

135

292

186

321

186

374

234

301

188

300

246

143

186 182

258 253

143

308

199

355

204

406

249

323

209

326

260

148

200 194

286 276

152

324

213

393

223

441

265

347

232

353

273

153

215 207

295 317

302

342

435

245

479

282

374

258

383

288

159

231 220

331 352

171

127

Western Melbourne

Barwon Outer Eastern

Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Brimbank Melton

Goulburn

234

Ovens Murray

Loddon

235


169

Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

161 174

228

Southern Melbourne

220

169 138

Bayside Peninsula

263 233

2020

2022

2028

2024

2026

3 G

Mental Health: Projected demand (individuals), by DHHS region (2020-2028F)

We estimate that more than 5,000 Aboriginal people may access mental health support through a community organisation


It appears that currently not many ACCOs operate in the mental health sector, with many regions serviced by mainstream providers only

62 |

ACCO’s providing services Mental health


Inner Eastern Melbourne Victorian Aboriginal Health Service

North Eastern Melbourne Victorian Aboriginal Health Service

Hume Moreland

Western Melbourne

Brimbank Melton

Bayside Peninsula

Southern Melbourne

Goulburn Rumbalara

Ovens Murray Albury Wodonga Aboriginal Health Service Mungabareena Aboriginal Corporation

Loddon Bendigo DAC


Outer Gippsland Gippsland and East Gippsland Aboriginal Co-operative Moogji Aboriginal Council East Gippsland Inc. (Orbost)

Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West Dhauwurd Wurrung Elderly and Community Health Service (Portland)

Central Highlands

Barwon Wathaurong

3 G


We have also gained insights that informed our understanding of the drivers of need and change in the AOD sector

•  Anecdotal evidence from the department suggests that service usage data may not be the best indicator of service demand, due to gaps in service delivery.

•  Analysis commissioned by DHHS in 2017 identified gaps that will likely influence future investment, including:

•  A lack of Aboriginal-specific AOD services in the outer south eastern corridor of Frankston, Mornington Peninsula, Casey, Cardinia and Greater Dandenong.

•  The West Division receives the lowest investment by DHHS in Aboriginal-specific AOD services, despite having the highest population.

•  In 2017 no Aboriginal-specific youth AOD programs were funded by the Victorian or Federal government (except for one residential rehabilitation facility)

•  The Commonwealth Government and Primary Health Networks also provide time limited funding for Aboriginal-specific AOD programs

•  The Victorian Aboriginal Affairs Framework 2018-2023 acknowledges the need for specialist drug and alcohol treatment services for Aboriginal Victorians

•  The Royal Commission into Mental Health seeks to improve support for those in the Victorian community who are living with a dual diagnosis of mental illness and problematic drug and alcohol use.

•  The Alcohol and Drug Treatment Service National Minimum Dataset reported that 2,125 Aboriginal people in Victoria accessed drug and alcohol services in 2017 – 2018, of these 14% were under 19 years old, and 35% were aged between 20 and 29 years old (a).

•  At the rates for the Victorian Aboriginal population identified in the most recent National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey, in 2018:

•  23,457 (39.5%) Aboriginal Victorians used substances

•  6,413 (10.8%) has exceeded lifetime risk guidelines for alcohol consumption (b) •  Analysis commissioned by DHHS in 2017 offers a number of insights (c), including:

•  Utilisation of services has remained steady since 2013, whilst the population has growth significantly.

•  43% of Aboriginal clients accessed an alcohol and drug service via an Indigenous organisation (57% with mainstream service)

•  50% of young people accessed youth specific services in 2017

•  Primary drugs of concern are alcohol (31% of clients), cannabinoids (31.5%) and amphetamines (37%)

•  Service utilisation varies significantly across local government areas – Mildura, Greater Shepparton, Campaspe and Darebin have high numbers, and Frankston, Melton and Yarra Ranges are significantly lower.

•  Methamphetamine use by Aboriginal people in is higher among Aboriginal people, and users tend to be younger than non-Aboriginal people, with several studies identifying an increase in use (d)


a)  https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/alcohol-other-drug-treatment-services/aodts-2016-17-data-visualisations/contents/data-cubes b)  NATSISS 2015 c)  Frizzell, J, December 2017, Aboriginal Alcohol and Other Drug and Mental Health Mapping Project, prepared for DHHS d)  Snijder M, Kershaw S. (2019). Review of methamphetamine use among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Australian Indigenous HealthBulletin 19(3)

3 H


We are using data related to substance and alcohol use to estimate demand for AOD services


Substance and alcohol use (estimation at state-level) NATSISS Vic Accessed

Number of clients of drug and alcohol services Balit Murrup report LGA Accessed

Hospital presentations for alcohol-related injuries Vic Govt Aboriginal Affairs report Vic Accessed

•  Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander access to AOD services (Adults by LGA or DHHS region) by age groups

•  Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander presentations to hospital related to alcohol and drugs (Adults by LGA or DHHS region)

DHHS LGA Request completed too late to consider

AOD - Number of Aboriginal young people (under 25) accessing AOD services

Balik Murrup Vic Accessed

AOD - Number of closed treatment episodes to Aboriginal young people (10yo – 24yo) (2015)

AIHW Vic Accessed

Closed Treatment Episodes – All ages AIHW (from the AOD National Minimum Dataset) Please note the Report on Government Services states that the majority of primary healthcare services for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians that are funded by the Australian government do not report to the Alcohol and Other Drugs National Minimum Dataset

Vic Accessed

Data selected The model currently projects the demand for Alcohol and other drug (AOD) services using an estimate of demand that is the proportion of Aboriginal people in Victoria that exceed lifetime risks guidelines for alcohol usage, and applying this proportion at the level of DHHS area. This proxy has been selected due to a lack of available data in this sector, but will be reviewed as data requests are completed. We will work with Taylor Fry to select the best available data. When we received the data we will consider the best approach for including this information, the options will be: •  Replacing the data in model with the service usage data •  Using both sets of data in the model to enable comparison of demand estimate and service usage (could enable identification of service gaps depending

on the quality of the data)

3 H


365

224

492

304

492

289

594

387

487

284

479

416

250

301 302

351

394

179

110

241

149

241

142

291

190

239

139

235 204

122 147 148

172 193

Southern Melbourne

Loddon Brimbank Melton

Western Melbourne

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Bayside Peninsula

Hume Moreland



Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

Barwon

Assumption and notes: •  Population growth projection - Scenario 2 (complex) and assumes no additional growth (in addition to population growth) •  The model currently projects the demand for Alcohol and other drug (AOD) services using an estimate of demand that is the proportion of Aboriginal

people in Victoria that exceed lifetime risks guidelines for alcohol usage and applying this proportion at the level of DHHS area. •  The estimated demand for community based AOD services is based on service utilisation data (a) that identifies 49% of AOD service users receive

counselling and case management (services typically delivered by organisations operating within the community). This assumption was tested and approved by the Victorian Drug and Alcohol Association (VAADA)

Estimated AOD service demand

Estimated demand for community based AOD support

3 H We estimate that there are 6,500 Aboriginal people in need of AOD services in Victoria, and half who may access community based support

AOD: Current estimated demand (individuals) by DHHS region (2018)

a)  Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Alcohol and Drug Treatment Services in Australia 2016 - 2017, Figure 5.5


Assumption and notes: •  This projection uses population growth scenario 2 (complex) and assumes no additional growth (in addition to population growth) •  The model currently projects the demand for Alcohol and other drug (AOD) services using an estimate of demand that is the proportion of Aboriginal

people in Victoria that exceed lifetime risks guidelines for alcohol usage, and applying this proportion at the level of DHHS area.

399

519 545

646

524 520

323

394 435

252

547

348

603

348

701

439

563

352

563

462

268

348 342

484 475

268

577

373

666

382

762

467

606

392

611

487

278

375 364

537 518

285

608

400

737

419

828

497

651

436

662

513

288

403 387

553 595

566

641

816

899

529

700

485

718

540

298

434 412

620 659

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Brimbank Melton

Bayside Peninsula

Southern Melbourne


Loddon

438


Wimmera South West

Inner Gippsland

Central Highlands

Barwon

412

238

302 325

428

321 317

459

259

Western Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

441 494

437

316

2020

2024

2022

2028

2026

3 H In line with Aboriginal population growth, we project that almost 10,000 Aboriginal people will need AOD support services in 10 years

AOD: Projected demand (individuals) – All service types (including clinical and residential), by DHHS region (2020-2028F)


Assumption and notes: •  This projection uses population growth scenario 2 (complex) and assumes no additional growth (in addition to population growth) •  The model currently projects the demand for Alcohol and other drug (AOD) services using an estimate of demand that is the proportion of Aboriginal

people in Victoria that exceed lifetime risks guidelines for alcohol usage, and applying this proportion at the level of DHHS area.

195

254 267

316

257 255

158

193 213

124

268

171

295

171

344

215

276

172

276

226

131

171 168

237 233

131

283

183

327

187

373

229

297

192

299

238

136

184 178

263 254

139

298

196

361

205

405

244

319

213

325

251

141

198 190

271 292

277

314

400

441

259

343

237

352

265

146

213 202

304 323

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Bayside Peninsula

Hume Moreland

Western Melbourne

Brimbank Melton

214


148

Loddon

155


North Eastern

Melbourne

155

Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

216

Barwon

117

159

210 225 215

202

127

Southern Melbourne

157

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

242

Inner Gippsland

2024

2020

2022

2026

2028

3 H We expect that 4,600 Aboriginal people will access AOD support services in a community organisation context

AOD: Projected demand (individuals) – Community organisation support services, by DHHS region (2020-2028F)


Many regions have an ACCO delivering some form of AOD service, but not enough to meet demand

68 |

ACCOs delivering AOD services

Outer Eastern Melbourne VACCA

Inner Eastern Melbourne VAHS

North Eastern Melbourne Bubup Wilam

Hume Moreland

Western Melbourne VAHS

Brimbank Melton


Southern Melbourne Ngwala Willumbong Cooperative


Ovens Murray Albury Wodonga Aboriginal Health Service

Loddon Njernda Aboriginal Corporation Bendigo and District Aboriginal Co-operative


Outer Gippsland Gippsland and East Gippsland Aboriginal Co-operative Lake Tyers Health and Children’s Service

Inner Gippsland Gippsland and East Gippsland Aboriginal Co-operative

Wimmera South West Gunditjmara Aboriginal Cooperative Ltd (Warrnambool)



3 H


We have also gained insights that our understanding of the drivers of need and change in the youth sector

•  The increasing number of children in out of home care, places a growing number of Aboriginal young people at-risk of offending.

•  Taskforce 250 is currently examining the cases of 250 young people, and seeks to identify and address structural causes of the overrepresentation of Aboriginal young people in the justice system.

•  Burra Lotjpa Dunguludja Victorian Aboriginal Justice Agreement Phase 4 sets targets for reducing the number of Aboriginal young people in the justice system, including reducing number of young people under supervision (d). Opportunities identified for the next five years include:

•  Designing and delivering approaches that integrate family services reform including Aboriginal child protection and out-of-home care, family violence support and safety hubs

•  Support successful evidenced based prevention programs delivered by ACCOs

•  Expand Koori Youth Justice program

•  Work with ACCOs to build support for the Work and Development Permit Scheme

•  A new Aboriginal youth justice strategy is under development, with calls from the Koori Youth Council for systemic changes, more effective services and community-led solutions (g)

•  There were 8,967 Aboriginal young people (aged between 15-24) in Victoria in 2016. 4,622 were studying, 3,759 were employed and 1,833 were not in employment, education and training (average of 21% across the state but higher in regional areas). Of those not in employment, education or training were female, 418 were women with at least one child (a)

•  There were 132 Aboriginal children under youth justice supervision (in detention and on community-based orders) on an average day in 2016-17 (b).

•  Department of Justice and Community Safety reports that between July and December 2018 71 Aboriginal young people were in youth justice detention, 101 received community orders, 247 were supported in the community through the Community Based Koori Youth Justice Diversion program, and 85 supported in Koori Bail and Post Release program (c)

•  Disengagement from employment and education increase the risk of an individual committing an offence and being involved in the justice system, and that Aboriginal young people tend to become involved in the criminal justice system younger than non-Aboriginal young people, and with increasing frequency (d)

•  A complex relationship exists between child removal, criminal offending and ongoing engagement with the justice system, with 38 per cent of Aboriginal children sentenced or diverted in 2016 and 2017 had been the subject of a child protection report (e)

•  Higher than non-Aboriginal reoffending rates contribute significantly to the overrepresentation of Aboriginal children and adults in the justice system, requiring effective early intervention, prevention and diversion programs to reduce this in the future (f)


a)  ABS Census 2016 b)  AIHW (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare) 2018, Youth justice in Australia 2016-17, Cat. No. JUV 116, Canberra: AIHW; State and Territory governments (unpublished). c)  Vic Government Department of Justice and Safety, Aboriginal Justice Forum, March 2019 d)  Victorian Government, Burra Lotjpa Dunguludja, Victorian Aboriginal Justice Agreement Phase 4 e)  Sentencing Advisory Council (2019) Crossover kids: Vulnerable children in the youth justice system f)  https://www.aboriginaljustice.vic.gov.au/the-agreementaboriginal-over-representation-in-the-justice-system/aboriginal-cohorts-under-justice g)  Koorie Youth Council (2019) Ngaga-Dji (Hear me) Young Voices Creating Change for Justice

3 I



Number of Aboriginal young people not in employment, education and training (14 – 24 years)

Census LGA Accessed

Number of young people supervised in the community and in detention centres Crime Statistics Agency

Vic Accessed

Number of Aboriginal children and young people in youth justice detention (July – December 2018)

Aboriginal Justice Forum

Department of Justice regions

Accessed

Number of Aboriginal children and young people who received a community order (July – December 2018)

Aboriginal Youth Justice Forum


Accessed

Number of Aboriginal children in Koori Youth Justice programs – Diversion and Post Bail and Release (July – December 2018)

Aboriginal Youth Justice Forum


Accessed

We made a decision to use two indicators to estimate demand for youth services – young people not in employment, education and training and young people engaged in justice system in Victoria

Data selected The following data has been selected to be used to estimate demand for youth engagement and youth justice services: •  Youth engagement

•  The number of Aboriginal young people not in employment, education and training (15-24).

•  Youth justice •  Sum of young people in detention, in receipt of community order and in a Koori Youth Justice program in each Department of Justice area, using

statistical analysis recommended by Taylor Fry to disaggregate into DHHS areas (using population statistics and SEIFA). As this data is only for 6 months, it has been adjusted to estimate a full year (multiplied by 1.5 assuming that half of the young people will remain in the service for longer than 6 months)

3 I


854

540

1,026

671

1,097

615

1,221

825

977

635

1,011

876

497

618 568

736

893

88 47

131 108 115 86 131 131 156

80

191 185 94 129

80 127 99

Central Highlands

Goulburn Wimmera South West

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Inner Gippsland

Outer Gippsland

Mallee Loddon Bayside Peninsula

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Western Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Brimbank Melton

Southern Melbourne

Barwon Ovens Murray

16%

15%

18%

21%

16%

21%

14%

24%

22%

19%

29%

34%

31%

30% 27%

23%

17%

Assumption and notes: •  Population growth projection - Scenario 2 (complex) assumes no additional growth (in addition to population growth) •  The projection uses the number of Aboriginal young people not in employment, education and training (15-24) •  These numbers have not been adjusted by 15.8%

Total number of young people (15 - 24) Number of young people not in employment, education or training

3 I We estimate that 2,300 young people require support in helping engage in education, employment or training

Youth (Engagement) Current estimated demand (individuals) & by DHHS region (2018)


36

21

39

24

37

22

59

39

71

34

44 39

53

40

73

31

79

Central Highlands

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Bayside Peninsula

Western Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Brimbank Melton

Southern Melbourne



Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

Barwon

Assumption and notes: •  Population growth projection - Scenario 2 (complex) and assumes no additional growth (in addition to population growth) •  The projection uses data of Aboriginal young people in detention, in receipt of community order and in a Koori Youth Justice program in each

Department of Justice area, using statistical analysis recommended by Taylor Fry to disaggregate into DHHS areas (using population statistics and SEIFA). As this data is only for 6 months, it has been adjusted to estimate a full year (multiplied by 1.5 assuming that half of the young people will remain in the service for longer than 6 months)

Demand for youth justice programs

3 I

Youth (Justice): Current estimated demand (individuals) by DHHS region (2018)

We estimate that the approx. 600 Aboriginal young people exposed to the youth justice system require more intensive support to reduce recidivism


A number of ACCOs work in this space, however, the majority of services are delivered by mainstream (youth) agencies

73 |

ACCOs delivering services for young people

Outer Eastern Melbourne Healesville Indigenous Community Services Association


North Eastern Melbourne VACCA Bert Willams Aboriginal Youth Services (BWAYS)

Hume Moreland VACCA Bert Willams Aboriginal Youth Services (BWAYS)

Western Melbourne Bert Willams Aboriginal Youth Services (BWAYS)

Brimbank Melton Bert Willams Aboriginal Youth Services (BWAYS)

Bayside Peninsula Ngwala Willumbong Cooperative Dandenong and District Aborigines Co-operative VACCA

Southern Melbourne

Dandenong and District Aborigines Co-operative Ngwala Willumbong Cooperative Doveton Gathering Place Willum Warrain Gathering Place VACCA


Ovens Murray

Loddon


Outer Gippsland Gippsland and East Gippsland Aboriginal Co-operative


Wimmera South West Dhauwurd Wurrung Elderly and Community Health Service (Portland)

Central Highlands


3 I


Assumption and notes: •  Population growth projection - Scenario 2 (complex) and assumes no additional growth (in addition to population growth) •  The projection uses the number of Aboriginal young people not in employment, education and training (15-24)

96

50

138

94

143

168

89

207

98

139

85

142

105

53

145

124 141

103

155 148

180

99

224 206

101

150

90

159

122 115

56

153

133 156

113

169 158

194

110

243

217

105

161

96

178

135 125

59

162

142 172

124

183 168

208

123

264

228

108

173

102

199

137

63

170 152

191

136

199

179

224

136

286

241

186

223

165

Ovens Murray

Mallee Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Southern Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Western Melbourne

Outer Gippsland

Hume Moreland

149

Bayside Peninsula

Brimbank Melton

Goulburn

112

Loddon Inner Gippsland

Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

Barwon

116 110 127

139

195

109

2020

2022

2024

2028

2026

3 I

Youth (Engagement): Projected demand (individuals) by DHHS region (2020-2028F)

By 2028, ~3,000 Aboriginal young people under 24 will be not engaged in education, employment or training, and could benefit from support to increase the likelihood of engagement


Assumption and notes: •  Population growth projection - Scenario 2 (complex) and assumes no additional growth (in addition to population growth) •  The projection uses data of Aboriginal young people in detention, in receipt of community order and in a Koori Youth Justice program in each Department

of Justice area, using statistical analysis recommended by Taylor Fry to disaggregate into DHHS areas (using population statistics and SEIFA). As this data is only for 6 months, it has been adjusted to estimate a full year (multiplied by 1.5 assuming that half of the young people will remain in the service for longer than 6 months)

39

23

41

25

41

24

64

42

77

38

48 41

55

43

78

35

88

43

24

43

27

45

26

69

44

82

42

52 43

57

47

83

39

97

47

26

46

29

50

29

75

47

88

46

56 45

59

50

88

44

108

51

27

48

31

55

32

82

50

95

52

61

48 61 54

94

49

120

56

29

51

33

61

35

89

53

102

57 66

50

64 58

100

55

133

Inner Gippsland

Outer Eastern

Melbourne

Inner Eastern

Melbourne

North Eastern

Melbourne

Hume Moreland

Bayside Peninsula

Western Melbourne

Brimbank Melton

Southern Melbourne



Wimmera South West

Central Highlands

Barwon

2020

2022

2028

2024

2026

3 I At current rates, by 2028 approximately 1,000 young Aboriginal people under 18 will be involved with the youth justice system during the year

Youth (Justice): Projected demand (individuals) by DHHS region (2020-2028F)

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