DEMAND FORECASTING of DHARWAD PEDHA

KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

KARNATAK UNIVERSITY,DHARWAD

PROJECT REPORT ON

DEMAND FORECASTING FOR DHARWAD PEDHA

Objective is to forecast the demand for DHARWAD PEDHA in the current scenario and also know

about the likeability among its consumers when compared with its competitive sweets.

`By : Group 5(41-50)

41) Sanjeevkumar Neginahal

42) Santosh Kamble


43) Saraswati Hadapad

44) Satish Nayak

45) Satyajit Nandodkar

46) Shrikrishna Honakore

47) Shruti Jogur

48) Shweta Elemmi

49) Srikar G Patil

50) Sudarshan Kurdi

INDEX

1.1 INTRODUCTION

1.2 NEED FOR THE STUDY

1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIESPage 2


1.4 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

1.5 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

1.6 METHOD OF STUDY

1.7 SAMPLE SIZE

1.8 SIZE ANS COMPOSITION OF THE SAMPLE

1.9 DATA COLLECTION

1.10 DATA INTERPRETATION

1.11 DEMAND TABULATION

1.12 RECTIFICATION

1.13 CONCLUSION

1.14 QUESTIONNAIRE

1.15 REFERENCES

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT



We would like to thank all the people who helped us in completing this project.

We would like to express my special thanks of gratitude to Mrs Vidula Dhulked as

well, who gave us the opportunity to do this project on “DEMAND

FORECASTING FOR DHARWAD PEDHA IN HUBLI-DHARWAD REGION”,

which also helped me in doing a lot of Research and knowing the current market .

We are really thankful to them. Secondly we would also like to thank my friends

who helped me a lot in completion of this project within the stipulated time.



1.1 INTRODUCTION

Dharwad pedha is a sweet delicacy, unique to the state of Karnataka, India. It

derives its name from the city of Dharwad in Karnataka.This sweet's history is

around 175 years old. Dharwad pedha has been accorded Geographical Indication

(GI) tag Its GI tag number is 85

History

Dharwad Pedha traces its historical origin to Thakur family which migrated from

Unnao in Uttar Pradesh to Dharwad after the dreaded plague broke out there

sometime in early 19th Century. With meagre funds, Shri. Ram Ratan Singh

Thakur (first generation sweet maker) started making ‘pedhas’ and selling them

and gradually, it started becoming popular.

Shri. Ram Ratan Singh Thakur’s grandson, Shri. Babu Singh Thakur, built the

reputation of the ‘pedha’ with a missionary zeal. With no time, the ‘pedha’ became

so popular that local people of Dharwad began identifying it by his name and as

‘Line Bazaar Pedha’ (the name of the street on which the shop is located).

The technique of preparing these ‘pedhas’ however remains a closely guarded

trade secret, known only to the family members of Shri. Babusingh Thakur, as

handed down the generations, by father to son.

Babusingh Thakur had only outlet to sell Pedhas, which were made in limited

quantity for decades. But now many outlets are added.

Apart from this Mishra Pedha's are also popular, as these have more outlets &

available through the day. Mishra has many outlets in twin cities of Dharwad &



Hubli. Apart from this the cities of Bangaluru & Pune have Dharwad Pedha

outlets.

Many local sweet shops sell similar pedhas as Dharwadi pedha in Pune.

1.2 NEED FOR THE STUDY

Dharwad pedha ,being the most sought sweet of this part of the country has its own

importance. It is a widely used delicacy and has maintained its quality right from

its inception. Though, there were many competitors, dharwad pedha could still

manage to retain its supremacy . The demand for the dharwad pedha might have

changed over time because of the various factors of competitors. As the demand

for Dharwad pedha can evolve over various factors, this topic for study would be

very much feasible to work upon.

1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

Dharwad Pedha has been one of the most famous legacy of dharwad. It has grown

to a greater extent from the time of its creation until now, So is the likeability and

demand for it. In this project , our objective is to forecast the demand for

DHARWAD PEDHA in the current scenario and also know about the likeability

among its consumers when compared with its competitive sweets.



1.4 SCOPE FOR THE STUDY:-

The scope of study for this project are the stores

selling DHARWAD PEDHA in HUBLI-DHARWAD region. The leading stores of

these cities were considered under survey and data was collected.

The stores from where the data is collected is as follows

1)Mishra Pedha(Old bus stand,Hubli, and Court Circle ,Dharwad)

2)Thakur Pedha(Court circle,dharwad , and Old bus stand ,Hubli)

3) Nandini Sweets ,Hubli

4) Vijaya Sweets,Dharwad

1.5 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

This study is limited to only 100 samples when compared to huge population

of HUBLI-DHARWAD region.

All possibilities that actual likeability of dharwad pedha may differ .

The data collected through questionnaires might not be 100% accurate

The data or information collected from the retailer may not be transparent.

1.6 METHOD OF STUDY

The study on demand for dharwad pedha is carried out by the following

methodology of study

Study is conducted through Questionnaires,Interviews,Observations and

Social Media



1) Questionnaire :- The primary information was collected

through a set of questions regarding

quality,price,likeability,competitors,retailers and Brand image etc. The

questionnaire also asked the samples to rate the product on a scale of 1 to 10

with 1 being the lowest and 10 being the highest.

2) Interview :

The information was also collected through a set of questions

Asked during an interview with customers . The questions were asked

regarding the quality of Dharwad pedha and the customers perception on

dharwad pedha’s evolution over time.

The interview was also conducted

with the retailers and information was collected regarding the sales per day

and the quantity produced per day and the preferences that has come among

the customers regarding the substitutes for Dharwad pedha.

3) Observations : -

During the coarse of study , we also made some

observations regarding the quantity of dharwad pedha that a customer buys

generally and the total sale of dharwad pedha in a day and the customer’s

perception about the price and quantity offered.



4) Source of Secondary Information(Internet):-

The data was also collected

through a set of questions to the people out of HUBLI-DHARWAD through

SOCIAL MEDIA. i.e Facebook. Questions regarding popularity and the

image of DHARWAD PEDHA outside the study area was also studied.

1.7 SAMPLE SIZE

During the coarse of study, the data was collected through questionnaire method

from a sample of 100 consumers who opined differently on the set of questions

asked.

1.8 SIZE AND THE COMPOSITION OF SAMPLE

The study on demand for DHARWAD PEDHA constituted a sample of 100 and

the following pie chart depicts the percentage of consumers under different age


7%

12%

33%

48%

AGE GROUP

16-22

23-28

29-32

33-45


The age group which lies between 32-45 is the most populated in a sample size of

100 customers where in 48% of them come under the actual age group of

consumers who buy Dharwad Pedha, i.e Parents/middle aged group in the society

1.9 DATA COLLECTION :-

The data for survey was collected through primary research

1) Primary Research:

The primary research included

questionnaires,interviews and observations with the consumers and retailers

respectively. 100 samples of the survey were collected and scrutinized.

1.10 DATA INTERPRETATION

The following pie chart depicts the percentage of people aware about the

DHARWAD PEDHA in HUBLI-DHARWAD region.

95%

5%

AWARENESS ABOUT DHARWAD PEDHA

Aware about the product

Unaware about the product

From the above chart we can state that the majority of the samples from

whom the data is collected is aware about the product.



The following pie chart depicts the percentage of people who have tasted

DHARWAD PEDHA.

From the above 2 pie charts we can clearly state that 90% of the taken sample size

knows about Dharwad Pedha and have tasted it where as there are 5% of them who

do not know about dharwad pedha and have not tasted it and there is also 5% of the

sample size who know about the product but they have not tasted it yet

90%

5%

5%

AWARE AND TASTED

AWARE BUT NOT TASTED

NOT AWARE AND NOT TASTED


90%

10%

PEOPLE WHO HAVE TASTED DHARWAD PEDHA

PEOPLE WHO HAVE NOT TASTED DHARWAD PEDHA


The following bar chart states the popularity of producers and retailers

of Dharwad Pedha among the customers in HUBLI-DHARWAD region.

Thakur Pedha Mishra Pedha Vijaya Sweets Nandini Dharwad Pedha

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1st Preference

2nd Preference

3rd preference

4th preference

From the above bar chart we can clearly see that the consumers have preferred the

first choice of DHARWAD PEDHA as MISHRA PEDHA followed by THAKUR

PEDHA, VIJAYA SWEETS and NANDINI DHARWAD PEDHA.



The following chart shows the consumers perception on the price of dharwad

pedha.

35%

30%

22%

13%

PRICE

250-280/kg

281-300/kg

301-320/kg

321-350/kg

From the above pie chart we can see that 35% of the taken sample thinks that the

price range of DHARWAD PEDHA lies between 250-280/kg where as

subsequently 30% think it is 281-300/kg, 22% think that it is 301-320/kg and the

remaining 13% think it is 321-350/kg.



During the study, when we interviewed number of consumers and retailers and

asked them about the reduction in demand of Dharwad Pedha over the time

because of sugar consciousness of people, the following results were found out.

51%

25%

17%

7%

SUGAR CONSCIOUSNESS AFFECTING DEMAND

Partially agree

Partially Disagree

Fully agree

Fully Disagree

The above chart shows that 51% of the taken sample thinks that the demand for

dharwad pedha has reduced as people are being more sugar conscious which is

partially true because when interviewing the retailers or manufacturers they

revealed that people are demanding of sugar free dharwad pedha as they are Health

conscious.



Dharwad Pedha has constantly been the stand out performer in sweets category and

has been maintaining a decent demand in the market. During the study we tried to

know the reason for the constant demand and found out that the following are the

reasons for it

Gifting SweetsCelebrations and festivals Guest Visits

All the aboveother reasons

05

101520253035404550

Reasons for Constant demand of DHARWAD PEDHA

From the above chart we can see that most number of sample size agree to the

point that there is no specific reason for constant demand of dharwad pedha in

market and the demand is affected by various reasons such as gifts from

relatives,for festivals and celebrations and visit to guests and also adding to the

point some percentage of the sample also state reasons apart from the given ones

such as

1) After Exam Results

2) Marriage Occasions

3) Birthdays

4) Vacation Seasons etc…



The following chart shows on an average the number of kilograms that a

consumer buys in a month .

From the above chart we can see that on an average most number of consumers

purchase 1kg of dharwad pedha per month, may be for various reasons mentioned

in the previous chart.


500 gms 1 kg more than 5 kg more than 7 kg0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Average number of kgs bought


During the study of our project when we asked the customers regarding the reasons

to buy dharwad pedha when they think of sweets.We got the following results.

unique taste longevity quality the brand "DHARWAD PEDHA"

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Reasons

From the above diagram we can see that more than half of the taken sample

goes with DHARWAD PEDHA because of its uniqueness in its taste which

has been irreplaceable from its inception.

The graph also shows that 1/4th of

the taken sample feels that “THE BRAND DHARWAD PEDHA” has made

a long lasting impression and hence they go with it



The following chart shows the likeability of the sample consumers.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100

5

10

15

20

25

30

Rating on a scale of 1 to 10

The above results were found during the sample survey when the sample

consumers were asked to rate DHARWAD PEDHA as compared to other

sweets on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the lowest and 10 being the highest.

And the results revealed that most of the sample size rated Dharwad Pedha

between 7 to 8 which is a decent score. And from this we can say that

majority of people still prefer Dharwad Pedha over other sweets.



The following data shows the consumers perception on current price of Dharwad

Pedha.

15

42

30

13

PRICE PERCEPTION

expensive

affordable

average

no comments

The above depiction of the pie chart depicts that approximately half of the

surveyed sample consumers of dharwad pedha think that the current price of

dharwad pedha is affordable where as similar percentage of surveyed sample

consumers of dharwad pedha think that it is an average price for the product.



As the above chart depicts that most of the surveyed sample consumer of dharwad

pedha say that dharwad pedha is available at an affordable or average price so is

the following pie chart which depicts the number of consumers who think that

Dharwad Pedha is worth its present price.

80

20

PRICE WORTHINESS

yes no

The above chart states that 80% of the population feels that its worth the

price they pay for DHARWAD PEDHA. This can be accounted on various

factors such as longevity,unique taste etc.



When the surveyed sample size was asked about their perception on the uniqueness

of taste that DHARWAD PEDHA has retained , the following results were found

out.

yes no retween yes & no

can't say05

101520253035404550

45

15

25

4.5

UNIQUENESS QUOTIENT

The above pie chart shows that approximately half of the surveyed sample

believes that DHARWAD PEDHA has retained its uniqueness of taste over

time where as 15% of the taken sample feels that DHARWAD PEDHA has

not retained its uniqueness over time and around 25% of the taken sample

has been neutral on the question.



When consumers were asked to choose a substitute for Dharwad pedha,

The following results were found out.

The chart clearly shows that BELGAUM KUNDA holds a major share as far as

substitute for DHARWAD PEDHA is concerned where as all the other

substitutes like mysore pak,kaju katri are in very small numbers as compared

with the major substitute BELGAUM KUNDA.


12

62

5

165

SUBSTITUTES

mysore pakbelgaum kundakhaju katriothers pls specifynone of yhe above


1.11 DEMAND TABULATION

The following demand details were collected from retailers and using this the

demand for next 3 days is calculated.

LEAST SQUARE METHOD

DAYS DEMAND

(in kgs)

X X2 XY Y=a+bx

MONDAY 98 -3 9 -294 76.69

TUESDAY 103 -2 4 -206 108.65

WEDNESDAY 145 -1 1 -145 140.61

THURSDAY 152 0 0 0 172.57

FRIDAY 180 1 1 180 204.53

SATURDAY 230 2 4 460 236.49

SUNDAY 300 3 9 900 268.45

∑ Y=1208 ∑x2=28 ∑xy=895

MONDAY Y=172.57+31.96(+4) = 300.41

TUESDAY Y=172.57+31.96(+5) = 332.37

WEDNESDAY Y=172.57+31.96(+6) = 364.33

a= ∑y/n=1208/7=172.57

b= ∑xy/x2= 895/28=31.96



1.12 RECTIFICATION OF FORECAST ERROR

The tabulated demand forecasting figure was compared with the actual demand

that took place for MONDAY,TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY and found out the

following results

DAY TABULATED

DEMAND(in kgs)

ACTUAL

SALES(in kgs)

FORECAST

ERROR(in kgs)

MONDAY 300.41 290 10.41

TUESDAY 332.37 311 22.37

WEDNESDAY 367.43 321 46.43

1.13 CONCLUSION :

From the above table we can asses that there has been differences between the

calculated demand and the actual sales of dharwad pedha when asked for the

reason from the retailers. The answer received stated that due to the on going

marriage season have positively effected the sales of DHARWAD PEDHA.

According to the retailers and manufacturers of DHARWAD PEDHA, there has

been increase in the sales of DHARWAD PEDHA when compared to last week

sales.

When interviewed ,they also stated that such sudden increase in the demand

is a common factor for them when influenced by the festive seasons, marriage

seasons and they also said that they are expecting more sales in the coming week

as the city is fast approaching towards DHARWAD UTSAV.



1.14 QUESTIONNAIRE

Dear Respondents

We thank for your valuable time and co-operation given for the survey through this

survey we seek to understand your views & opinions about Dharwad Pedha in Hubli, Dharwad

Name:

Age:

Occupation:

Location of Residence:

1) Have you heard of DHARWAD Pedha? Yes or No

2) Have you tasted Dharwad Pedha? Yes or No

3) When you hear of Dharwad Pedha which of the following do you prefer? Rank them

accordingly.

a) Babusingh Thakur Pedha

b) Mishra pedha

c) Vijaya Sweets

d) Nandini Dharwad pedha.

4) What do you think is the price of Dharwad Pedha ( per Kg)?

a) Rs. 250 to 280

b) Rs. 280 to 300



c) Rs. 300 to 320

d) Rs. 320 to 350

5) Do you think demand for Dharwad Pedha has reduced over time, because people are more

sugar conscious?

a) Partially agree b) Partially disagree

c) Fully agree d) fully disagree

6) Being a localite you may not eat dharwad pedha on a regular basis, then what are the other

reasons that people still buy dharwad pedhas?

a) For gifting sweets to family & relatives

b) During celebrations & festive seasons

c) When guests visit us

d) All the above

e) Others please specify

7) On an average how many kg’s of Dharwad Pedha you buy per month? For self use or for

others included

a)500gms b) 1 kg c)more than 5 kg d)more than 7kg e) None

8) What makes you to go with dharwad pedha when you think of sweets?


Unique Taste

Longevity

Quality

The brand “DHARWAD PEDHA”


9). How do you rate Dharwad Pedha on the scale of 1 to 10

10). what do you think about the price of Dharwad Pedha?

a) Expensive b) Affordable c) Average d) No comments

11)) Do you think dharwad pedha is worth its present price.

If YES why-------------------------------------------------------

If no why----------------------------------------------------------

12) Do you think Dharwad pedha have retained its uniqueness of taste over time

a) Yes b) NO c) Between Yes & NO D) Can’t Say

13) Over time we see there have been several new centres of Dharwad pedha. On one side it’s

easily accessible, but on other side it has become too commercial. What do you think about its

goodwill & popularity over time? Please Comment:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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14) Which of the following can you substitute with dharwad pedha



a) Mysore Pak

b) Belgaum Kunda

c) Kaju katri

d) Others pls specify

e) None of the above

15. What is your feel about Dharwad Pedha??

……………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………………………………………………..

……………………………………………………………………

16) What changes or suggestions would you like to suggest to the makers of Dharwad pedha

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Thank you for your time…

1.15 Bibiliography

1) Wikipedia




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DEMAND FORECASTING of DHARWAD PEDHA

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