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Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

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Democracy is Democracy is Overrated… Overrated… Michael Munger Michael Munger Duke University Duke University November 7, 2005 November 7, 2005 X
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Page 1: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Democracy is Overrated…Democracy is Overrated…

Michael MungerMichael Munger

Duke UniversityDuke University

November 7, 2005November 7, 2005

X

Page 2: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Key Elements of Public Key Elements of Public ChoiceChoice

Methodological IndividualismMethodological Individualism AggregationAggregation Consequence, not IntentionConsequence, not Intention DisagreementDisagreement Self-interestSelf-interest Institutions and OrganizationsInstitutions and Organizations

Page 3: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

THE Key ElementTHE Key Element

Difference between Samuelsonian Difference between Samuelsonian “public goods” problem and the “public goods” problem and the problem of making choices problem of making choices collectivelycollectively

Information, tastes, and cultureInformation, tastes, and culture Institutional designInstitutional design Collective choicesCollective choices

Page 4: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Collective v. PublicCollective v. PublicProperty of Property of ChoiceChoice

Property of Property of GoodGood Individual Decision: I can

choose, alone and without interference

Collective Decision: Choices are made by a group, and are binding on all

Private Decision: My choice has no consequence for your welfare

Liberty of the individual: What socks should I

wear? Whom should I marry?

Tyranny of the majority: Invasion of privacy Theft of property

rights

Public Decision: My choices affect your welfare

Underinvestment, or else theft by the minority:

Air or water pollution Education

Liberty of the group How much to spend on

defense? How to take care of

the poor?

Page 5: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

I. Information, Tastes, and I. Information, Tastes, and CultureCulture““The peculiar character of the problem of a rational The peculiar character of the problem of a rational

economic order is determined precisely by the fact economic order is determined precisely by the fact that the knowledge of the circumstances of which we that the knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess. The which all the separate individuals possess. The economic problem of society is thus not merely a economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to allocate "given" resources—if problem of how to allocate "given" resources—if "given" is taken to mean given to a single mind which "given" is taken to mean given to a single mind which deliberately solves the problem set by these "data." It deliberately solves the problem set by these "data." It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only these individuals ends whose relative importance only these individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone in its totality.” (F.A. Hayek, 1945, in its totality.” (F.A. Hayek, 1945, AERAER).).

Page 6: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

““The” Right ThingThe” Right Thing There may not be any one right thing to do. There may not be any one right thing to do.

It depends. It depends. It is the nature of collective choices that It is the nature of collective choices that

they are unitary: One defense budget, one they are unitary: One defense budget, one standard for pollution, and so on.standard for pollution, and so on.

Asking “What Will We Do?” begs the Asking “What Will We Do?” begs the question. The real question isquestion. The real question is… …

Why Do You Think There is a ‘We’?Why Do You Think There is a ‘We’? Buchanan and Tullock’s “Two Levels”: Buchanan and Tullock’s “Two Levels”:

Can’t let the majority decide what the Can’t let the majority decide what the majority gets to decidemajority gets to decide

Page 7: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

My Plan + Your Plan My Plan + Your Plan Our Our PlanPlan

Socialist Calculation DebateSocialist Calculation Debate““This is not a dispute about whether planning is to This is not a dispute about whether planning is to be done or not. It is a dispute as to whether be done or not. It is a dispute as to whether planning is to be done centrally, by one authority planning is to be done centrally, by one authority for the whole economic system, or is to be for the whole economic system, or is to be divided among many individuals. Planning in the divided among many individuals. Planning in the specific sense in which the term is used in specific sense in which the term is used in contemporary controversy necessarily means contemporary controversy necessarily means central planning—direction of the whole central planning—direction of the whole economic system according to one unified plan. economic system according to one unified plan. Competition, on the other hand, means Competition, on the other hand, means decentralized planning by many separate decentralized planning by many separate persons. The halfway house between the two, persons. The halfway house between the two, about which many people talk but which few like about which many people talk but which few like when they see it, is the delegation of planning to when they see it, is the delegation of planning to organized industries, or, in other words, organized industries, or, in other words, monopoly.” (Hayek, 1945). monopoly.” (Hayek, 1945).

Page 8: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Coherence and LegitimacyCoherence and LegitimacyCan a group of people who disagree come Can a group of people who disagree come

to a consensus? How would this work? to a consensus? How would this work? Why would we believe that the Why would we believe that the “consensus” is any more than an “consensus” is any more than an imperfect choice?imperfect choice?

Do the choices of majorities tell us Do the choices of majorities tell us anything about “the right thing to do” in anything about “the right thing to do” in the face of disagreement? the face of disagreement?

Is there such a thing as “the majority,” Is there such a thing as “the majority,” which we just have to discover through which we just have to discover through voting or some political process?voting or some political process?

I want…you want…what do I want…you want…what do wewe want? want?

Page 9: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Institutional DesignInstitutional Design Institutions are the humanly devised rules of the Institutions are the humanly devised rules of the

game that shape and direct human interactions.game that shape and direct human interactions. Institutions reduce uncertainty by shrinking the Institutions reduce uncertainty by shrinking the

choice set of all of the “players.” If the rules are choice set of all of the “players.” If the rules are not formalized, the players spend too much time not formalized, the players spend too much time arguing over the rules, and less time in arguing over the rules, and less time in productive activities. The actual choice of productive activities. The actual choice of institutions, however, is hard, since there are institutions, however, is hard, since there are countless ways of choosing. What makes some countless ways of choosing. What makes some institutions better than others?institutions better than others?

In particular, is democracy a “good” institution? In particular, is democracy a “good” institution? How would we know? What are the alternatives?How would we know? What are the alternatives?

Page 10: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Step back for a moment….Step back for a moment….The Fundamental Human The Fundamental Human

ProblemProblem(according to Munger)(according to Munger)

How can we construct or How can we construct or preserve preserve institutionsinstitutions that make that make individual individual self-interestself-interest not not inconsistentinconsistent with the common with the common goodgood??

Page 11: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Two ApproachesTwo Approaches

MadisonianMadisonian

““Ambition must be made to counteract Ambition must be made to counteract ambition…”ambition…”

RousseauvianRousseauvian

Transform the self, solve the problem Transform the self, solve the problem of of amour propreamour propre. Inscribe the law on . Inscribe the law on the hearts of men. Some the hearts of men. Some preferences are better than others.preferences are better than others.

Page 12: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Origins of MarketsOrigins of Markets

Differences in endowmentsDifferences in endowments Differences in preferencesDifferences in preferences Technical cost conditions (div of Technical cost conditions (div of

labor, economies of scale, increased labor, economies of scale, increased dexterity, innovations in tool design)dexterity, innovations in tool design)

Page 13: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Origins of Government Origins of Government InstitutionsInstitutions

Disagreement/exchange (B&T)Disagreement/exchange (B&T) Capture gains from trade by reducing Capture gains from trade by reducing

transactions coststransactions costs Make public goods possibleMake public goods possible

Page 14: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Origins of Government Origins of Government InstitutionsInstitutions

What if we all wanted the same thing? What if we all wanted the same thing? Would government even be Would government even be necessary?necessary?

It would. Because we It would. Because we dodo all want the all want the same thing: same thing: more….more….

On disagreement, Charles IV: On disagreement, Charles IV: ““My cousin Francis and I are in perfect My cousin Francis and I are in perfect

accord—he wants Milan and so do I.”accord—he wants Milan and so do I.”

Page 15: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Madisonian InstitutionsMadisonian Institutions

Markets—Smith’s bakerMarkets—Smith’s baker Politics—Federalist #51: Politics—Federalist #51:

Men are not angelsMen are not angels

Men are not ruled by angelsMen are not ruled by angels

““Ambition must be made to counteract Ambition must be made to counteract ambition…”ambition…”

Page 16: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

But it is asked how a man can be both free But it is asked how a man can be both free and forced to conform to wills that are and forced to conform to wills that are not his own. How are the opponents at not his own. How are the opponents at once free and subject to laws they have once free and subject to laws they have not agreed to?not agreed to?

I retort that the question is wrongly put. I retort that the question is wrongly put. The citizen gives his consent to all the The citizen gives his consent to all the laws, including those which are passed in laws, including those which are passed in spite of his opposition, and even those spite of his opposition, and even those which punish him when he dares to break which punish him when he dares to break any of them…. (From any of them…. (From The Social ContractThe Social Contract))

Democracy Democracy Unbound….RousseauUnbound….Rousseau

Page 17: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

When in the popular assembly a law is When in the popular assembly a law is proposed, what the people is asked is not proposed, what the people is asked is not exactly whether it approves or rejects the exactly whether it approves or rejects the proposal, but whether it is in conformity proposal, but whether it is in conformity with the general will, which is their will…. with the general will, which is their will….

When therefore the opinion that is contrary When therefore the opinion that is contrary to my own prevails, this proves neither to my own prevails, this proves neither more nor less than that I was mistaken, more nor less than that I was mistaken, and that what I thought to be the general and that what I thought to be the general will was not so. will was not so.

If my particular opinion had carried the day I If my particular opinion had carried the day I should have achieved the opposite of what should have achieved the opposite of what was my will; and it is in that case that I was my will; and it is in that case that I should not have been free.should not have been free.

Democracy Unbound….Democracy Unbound….

Page 18: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Loyal Opposition?Loyal Opposition?This conception of democracy is logical. The This conception of democracy is logical. The

actions of government are driven by the people; actions of government are driven by the people; the general will is sovereign. Opposition to the the general will is sovereign. Opposition to the general will is treason, and must be punished. general will is treason, and must be punished. No No needneed for two parties: for two parties: only one general willonly one general will..

All those countries with “Peoples’ Democratic All those countries with “Peoples’ Democratic Republic of ___” were not perversions of Republic of ___” were not perversions of democracy, but examplars. That is what pure democracy, but examplars. That is what pure democracy, with no limits on scope, looks like. democracy, with no limits on scope, looks like. Cannot be otherwise.Cannot be otherwise.

Democracy, in and of itself, is an attractive Democracy, in and of itself, is an attractive concept that concept that must constitute a recipe for must constitute a recipe for tyrannytyranny, unless the scope of collective , unless the scope of collective sovereignty is strictly limited.sovereignty is strictly limited.

Page 19: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Che Guevara’s “Man and Che Guevara’s “Man and Socialism in Cuba” (1965).Socialism in Cuba” (1965).

Society as a whole must become a huge school....We Society as a whole must become a huge school....We can see the new man who begins to emerge in this can see the new man who begins to emerge in this period of the building of socialism. His image is as period of the building of socialism. His image is as yet unfinished; in fact it will never be finished, since yet unfinished; in fact it will never be finished, since the process advances parallel the development of the process advances parallel the development of new economic forms. Discounting those whose lack new economic forms. Discounting those whose lack of education makes them tend toward the solitary of education makes them tend toward the solitary road, towards the satisfaction of their ambitions, road, towards the satisfaction of their ambitions, there are others who, even within this new picture there are others who, even within this new picture of over-all advances, tend to march in isolation from of over-all advances, tend to march in isolation from the accompanying mass. What is more important is the accompanying mass. What is more important is that people become more aware every day of the that people become more aware every day of the need to incorporate themselves into society and of need to incorporate themselves into society and of their own importance as motors of that society their own importance as motors of that society

Page 20: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Collective ChoicesCollective Choices‘What is truth?’ said jesting Pilate, ‘What is truth?’ said jesting Pilate, and would not stay for an answer.and would not stay for an answer.

True Statements?True Statements?

Democracy means: “rule by the people”Democracy means: “rule by the people”

Democracy is the best form of Democracy is the best form of governmentgovernment

The The manymany are wiser than are wiser than any oneany one person person

MoralityMorality is defined by is defined by majoritymajority——Democracy is a means of discovering Democracy is a means of discovering truthtruth

Page 21: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

A movie: Pure Democracy in A movie: Pure Democracy in ActionAction

Page 22: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Central Questions:Central Questions:Can reasonable people differ? Can a Can reasonable people differ? Can a

reasonable person oppose gay marriage? reasonable person oppose gay marriage? Can a reasonable person be pro-life? Is it Can a reasonable person be pro-life? Is it possible to support the war in Iraq?possible to support the war in Iraq?

What is the basis of disagreement—What is the basis of disagreement—

1.1. Chocolate vs. Vanilla? In politics, values. Chocolate vs. Vanilla? In politics, values. Are they primitives? Deliberation won’t Are they primitives? Deliberation won’t help.help.

2.2. Different information sets? Evidence about Different information sets? Evidence about causes, different understandings of means-causes, different understandings of means-ends relations. Deliberation might help.ends relations. Deliberation might help.

Is there a “Is there a “fact of the matterfact of the matter”?”?

Page 23: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Central Questions:Central Questions:Is it true that the many are wiser than any Is it true that the many are wiser than any

one? Many people have argued this one? Many people have argued this claim….claim….

““For it is possible that the many, no For it is possible that the many, no one of whom taken singly is a one of whom taken singly is a sound man, may yet, taken all sound man, may yet, taken all together, be better than the few, together, be better than the few, not individually, but collectively.” not individually, but collectively.” (Aristotle, (Aristotle, PoliticsPolitics, Book I, Chapter 11), Book I, Chapter 11)

Some important analytical support, under Some important analytical support, under some circumstances. Condorcet’s “Jury some circumstances. Condorcet’s “Jury Theorem,” for example.Theorem,” for example.

Page 24: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Central Questions:Central Questions:The real problems of democratic choice:The real problems of democratic choice:

1.1. Scope of government/collective power: Scope of government/collective power: the Buchanan problemthe Buchanan problem

2.2. Information of time and place: the Information of time and place: the Hayek problemHayek problem

3.3. Coherence and legitimacy: The Coherence and legitimacy: The Condorcet / Arrow problemCondorcet / Arrow problem

Page 25: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

ScopeScope

What can government decide? How would What can government decide? How would we decide what government can decide?we decide what government can decide?

What do I get to decide, by myself? What What do I get to decide, by myself? What things does my family get to decide?things does my family get to decide?

Suppose a group of people want to decide Suppose a group of people want to decide something for me, for my own good? Can something for me, for my own good? Can they do that? How could I stop them?they do that? How could I stop them?

Page 26: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

P.J. O’Rourke—Information and P.J. O’Rourke—Information and Scope Problems of MRScope Problems of MR

Now, majority rule is a precious, sacred thing Now, majority rule is a precious, sacred thing worth dying for. But—like other precious, worth dying for. But—like other precious, sacred things, such as the home and the familysacred things, such as the home and the family—it's not only worth dying for; it can make you —it's not only worth dying for; it can make you wish you were dead. Imagine if all of life were wish you were dead. Imagine if all of life were determined by majority rule. Every meal would determined by majority rule. Every meal would be a pizza. Every pair of pants, even those in a be a pizza. Every pair of pants, even those in a Brooks Brothers suit, would be stone-washed Brooks Brothers suit, would be stone-washed denim. Celebrity diets and exercise books denim. Celebrity diets and exercise books would be the only thing on the shelves at the would be the only thing on the shelves at the library. And—since women are a majority of library. And—since women are a majority of the population, we'd all be married to Mel the population, we'd all be married to Mel Gibson. (Gibson. (Parliament of Whores,Parliament of Whores, 1991, p. 5). 1991, p. 5).

Page 27: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

James Buchanan: James Buchanan: Like Hobbes, too much liberty?Like Hobbes, too much liberty?

““What should government be allowed to What should government be allowed to do? What is the appropriate sphere of do? What is the appropriate sphere of political action? How large a share political action? How large a share national product should be available for national product should be available for political disposition? What sort of political political disposition? What sort of political decision-structures should be adopted at decision-structures should be adopted at the constitutional stage? Under what the constitutional stage? Under what conditions and to what extent should conditions and to what extent should individuals be franchised?” (“Politics individuals be franchised?” (“Politics Without Romance.”)Without Romance.”)

Page 28: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Coherence and LegitimacyCoherence and LegitimacyCan a group of people who disagree come Can a group of people who disagree come

to a consensus? How would this work? to a consensus? How would this work? Why would we believe that the Why would we believe that the “consensus” is any more than an “consensus” is any more than an imperfect choice?imperfect choice?

Do the choices of majorities tell us Do the choices of majorities tell us anything about “the right thing to do”? anything about “the right thing to do”?

Is there such a thing as “the majority,” Is there such a thing as “the majority,” which we just have to discover through which we just have to discover through voting or some political process?voting or some political process?

I want…you want…what do I want…you want…what do wewe want? want?

Page 29: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Problem of the U.S. in IraqProblem of the U.S. in Iraq

Page 30: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Democratic Choices: War in Democratic Choices: War in IraqIraq

You’ve got to help me out here…play along!You’ve got to help me out here…play along!

Preferences and beliefs, on the little card. Preferences and beliefs, on the little card. REALLY! Accept the premise, and act like REALLY! Accept the premise, and act like those are your preferences. Three choices:those are your preferences. Three choices:

No war: No war: NN

Aggressive war: Aggressive war: WW

Police/political means: Police/political means: PP

Page 31: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Choices: War in IraqChoices: War in Iraq

One possibility: isolationist variant of Powell One possibility: isolationist variant of Powell doctrinedoctrine

N > W > PN > W > P

We should not get involved. We should not get involved.

But, if we do, we should go in with But, if we do, we should go in with overwhelming force.overwhelming force.

Worst thing is to expose our troops/workers in Worst thing is to expose our troops/workers in a limited police action, depend on the U.N.a limited police action, depend on the U.N.

Page 32: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Choices: War in IraqChoices: War in IraqAnother possibility: Rummy World Another possibility: Rummy World

W > P > NW > P > N

Iraq/Saddam is an imminent threat, will Iraq/Saddam is an imminent threat, will develop WMD. develop WMD.

If not war, then must vigorously pursue If not war, then must vigorously pursue sanctionssanctions

Worst thing is to do nothing, relax Worst thing is to do nothing, relax sanctions and let Iraq become nuclear sanctions and let Iraq become nuclear powerpower

Page 33: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Choices: War in IraqChoices: War in Iraq

Final possibility: Prudent DoveFinal possibility: Prudent DoveP > N > W P > N > W

Let sanctions and inspections do their Let sanctions and inspections do their work, because Iraq is a potential danger work, because Iraq is a potential danger to its neighbors and the world to its neighbors and the world

We have no good claim to just war, so next We have no good claim to just war, so next best is to do nothingbest is to do nothing

Worst thing is to use war against a nation Worst thing is to use war against a nation that has made no overt attack on the U.S.that has made no overt attack on the U.S.

Page 34: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Choices: War in IraqChoices: War in IraqSo…we have disagreementSo…we have disagreement

1.1. Prudent dove wants to use P, police Prudent dove wants to use P, police actionaction

2.2. Rummy wants warRummy wants war

3.3. Isolationists would prefer to stay far Isolationists would prefer to stay far away from foreign entanglements, so away from foreign entanglements, so do nothing.do nothing.

Page 35: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Choices: War in IraqChoices: War in Iraq

Let’s use “democracy,” the pure Let’s use “democracy,” the pure kind where the people make the kind where the people make the choice directly. choice directly.

First, let’s decide whether to use First, let’s decide whether to use force, or do nothing….force, or do nothing….

Vote P vs. W to decide which activity Vote P vs. W to decide which activity is better, and then vote that is better, and then vote that against N. That way, we are against N. That way, we are comparing the best “do comparing the best “do something” against “do nothing.”something” against “do nothing.”

Page 36: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Choices: War in IraqChoices: War in IraqConsider what just happened. Simply Consider what just happened. Simply

by changing the order in which we by changing the order in which we consider the alternatives, I could consider the alternatives, I could generate as the “winner” any one of generate as the “winner” any one of the three alternatives.the three alternatives.

Choosing the agenda, then, is Choosing the agenda, then, is tantamount to choosing the outcome.tantamount to choosing the outcome.

Is this just a conjurer’s trick, or does it Is this just a conjurer’s trick, or does it tell us something about democracy?tell us something about democracy?

Page 37: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Choices: War in IraqChoices: War in IraqIf there are three (or more) If there are three (or more)

alternatives, and there is alternatives, and there is disagreement, then democracy disagreement, then democracy may be radically indeterminate.may be radically indeterminate.

More simply, there is no correct More simply, there is no correct answer to the question, “What answer to the question, “What do the people want?”do the people want?”

In fact, In fact, some majority opposes some majority opposes every alternativeevery alternative..

Page 38: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Choices: War in IraqChoices: War in IraqHere is the problem:Here is the problem:

I/PI/P RummyRummy Prud DovePrud DoveNN WW PP BestBestWW PP NN MiddleMiddlePP NN WW WorstWorst

Majority preferences:Majority preferences:W > P > N > WW > P > N > WEndless, infinite cycling over alternatives. Endless, infinite cycling over alternatives.

Not a tie, but a literal perpetual motion Not a tie, but a literal perpetual motion machinemachine

Page 39: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

But this is nonsense: meetings But this is nonsense: meetings endend

That is what should terrify you: meetings end, and That is what should terrify you: meetings end, and things get decided. The point is that we are rarely things get decided. The point is that we are rarely presented with three or more alternatives. We presented with three or more alternatives. We usually are presented with two. How are those two usually are presented with two. How are those two chosen?chosen?

The “Lawson Revolution”: coalitions form, The “Lawson Revolution”: coalitions form, charismatic people take power. Not the will of the charismatic people take power. Not the will of the people, but the force of will of some demogogue or people, but the force of will of some demogogue or tyranttyrant

If the rules matter to this extent, that means that If the rules matter to this extent, that means that procedures, not preferences, determine outcomes. procedures, not preferences, determine outcomes. And elites control procedures….And elites control procedures….

Page 40: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Democracy works fine…. Democracy works fine…. So long as everyone agreesSo long as everyone agrees

But if there is disagreement, and at least three But if there is disagreement, and at least three alternatives, then a majority opposes every alternatives, then a majority opposes every available choice. So, democracy fails us when available choice. So, democracy fails us when we need it most!we need it most!

Since some choice has to be made, we are left Since some choice has to be made, we are left with an outcome that is either with an outcome that is either

Imposed (tyranny)Imposed (tyranny) Arbitrary (random or procedure-driven)Arbitrary (random or procedure-driven)

In either case, “democratic choice” is chimericalIn either case, “democratic choice” is chimerical

Dictatorship with the trappings of democracyDictatorship with the trappings of democracy

Page 41: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

The worst of all worldsThe worst of all worlds

Democracy without Democracy without constitutional constitutional liberalism…liberalism…

1. Rule of law, protections of property and 1. Rule of law, protections of property and libertyliberty

2. Limits on scope of issues within the 2. Limits on scope of issues within the jurisdiction of collective choice…jurisdiction of collective choice…

Democracy without these is the most Democracy without these is the most terrifying kind of tyranny you can imagine. terrifying kind of tyranny you can imagine. Americans, and the West, are confused Americans, and the West, are confused about “good government.” The key is about “good government.” The key is constitutional liberalism, not democracy.constitutional liberalism, not democracy.

Page 42: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

““Stability” is a variableStability” is a variablePolitics in nations are not always Politics in nations are not always

stablestable Different nations have different Different nations have different

institutionsinstitutions Those institutions are more or less Those institutions are more or less

effective at different timeseffective at different times How do U.S. institutions serve to How do U.S. institutions serve to

make our political system more, make our political system more, or less, stable? How do the or less, stable? How do the institutions of other nations solve institutions of other nations solve this problem, differently?this problem, differently?

Page 43: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

In our example, Iso-Powell In our example, Iso-Powell was the culprit…was the culprit…

Uti

lity

Intensity of War Effort

N P W

Iso-

Powell

Rummy

Prudent Dove

Page 44: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Cannot Rely on the Cannot Rely on the Conditions of the MVT to Turn Conditions of the MVT to Turn

Up by ChanceUp by Chance

Institutions shape the choices nations Institutions shape the choices nations make. But:make. But:

Preferences aren’t single-peakedPreferences aren’t single-peaked Issues are not always one-Issues are not always one-

dimensionaldimensional Democratic institutions are likely to Democratic institutions are likely to

fail when we need them most…fail when we need them most…

Page 45: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Three “Histories”Three “Histories”

PlatoPlatoShakespeareShakespearePlutarchPlutarch

Page 46: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Plato: DemocracyPlato: Democracy Means Tyranny Means Tyranny

““Democracy is precisely the constitution out of Democracy is precisely the constitution out of which tyranny comes; from extreme liberty, it which tyranny comes; from extreme liberty, it seems, comes a slavery most complete and seems, comes a slavery most complete and most cruel….When a democratic city gets most cruel….When a democratic city gets worthless butlers presiding over its wine, and worthless butlers presiding over its wine, and has drunk too deep of liberty’s heady draught, has drunk too deep of liberty’s heady draught, then, I think, if the rulers are not very obliging then, I think, if the rulers are not very obliging and provide plenty of liberty, it calls them and provide plenty of liberty, it calls them blackguards and oligarchs and chastises blackguards and oligarchs and chastises them…and any who obey the rulers they them…and any who obey the rulers they trample in the dust as willing slaves and not trample in the dust as willing slaves and not worth a jot.” (worth a jot.” (RepublicRepublic, Book VI, 560a-564b), Book VI, 560a-564b)

Page 47: Democracy is Overrated… Michael Munger Duke University November 7, 2005 X.

Shakespeare’s Shakespeare’s Tragedy of CoriolanusTragedy of Coriolanus: Act II, Sc : Act II, Sc 33

BOTH CITIZENS. The gods give you joy, sir, heartily! (Exeunt BOTH CITIZENS. The gods give you joy, sir, heartily! (Exeunt citizens)citizens)

CORIOLANUS. Most sweet voices!CORIOLANUS. Most sweet voices! Better it is to die, better to starve,Better it is to die, better to starve, Than crave the hire which first we do deserve.Than crave the hire which first we do deserve. Why in this wolvish toge should I stand hereWhy in this wolvish toge should I stand here To beg of Hob and Dick that do appearTo beg of Hob and Dick that do appear Their needless vouches? Custom calls me to't.Their needless vouches? Custom calls me to't. What custom wills, in all things should we do't,What custom wills, in all things should we do't, The dust on antique time would lie unswept,The dust on antique time would lie unswept, And mountainous error be too highly heap'dAnd mountainous error be too highly heap'd For truth to o'erpeer. Rather than fool it so,For truth to o'erpeer. Rather than fool it so, Let the high office and the honour goLet the high office and the honour go To one that would do thus. I am half through:To one that would do thus. I am half through: The one part suffered, the other will I do.The one part suffered, the other will I do.

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[Aristides] being surprised and asking if [Aristides] being surprised and asking if Aristides had ever done him any injury, Aristides had ever done him any injury, "None at all," said he, "neither know I the "None at all," said he, "neither know I the man; but I am tired of hearing him man; but I am tired of hearing him everywhere called the just." Aristides, everywhere called the just." Aristides, hearing this, is said to have made no reply, hearing this, is said to have made no reply, but returned the sherd with his own name but returned the sherd with his own name inscribed. At his departure from the city, inscribed. At his departure from the city, lifting up his hands to heaven, he made a lifting up his hands to heaven, he made a prayer (the reverse, it would seem, of that prayer (the reverse, it would seem, of that of Achilles), that the Athenians might never of Achilles), that the Athenians might never have any occasion which should constrain have any occasion which should constrain them to remember Aristides.them to remember Aristides.

ARISTIDES: FROM PLUTARCH’S LIVES


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