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Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

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Demographic Change Bridget Burdett, Dr William Cochrane and Dr Mathew Roskruge
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Page 1: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

Demographic ChangeBridget Burdett, Dr William Cochrane and Dr Mathew Roskruge

Page 2: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

2 Introduction This presentation is broken up into several

parts; Firstly we will look at the broad projected trends

in New Zealand's demography in the near to medium term,

Secondly will then turn to considering projected changes in the Waikato Region.

Lastly I will make some general comments and respond to any questions.

Page 3: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

3The Big Picture“21st Century will oversee the slowing and ending of population growth”

Marsden (2014-16) - The subnational mechanisms of the ending of population growth – towards a theory of depopulation: Tai Timu Tangata; Taihoa e?Jackson, Maré, Cameron, Cochrane, Brabyn, Pool

Page 4: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

4New Zealand Projected Population 2014-2068

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

2052

2054

2056

2058

2060

2062

2064

2066

2068

4000000

4500000

5000000

5500000

6000000

6500000

7000000

7500000

5th 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th 95th

Year

Popu

latio

n

National population projections, 2014(base)-2068, Statistics New Zealand

Page 5: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

Projected Age Structure, 2014 & 20685

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85 plus

5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

Female Male

Per cent of Population

Age

Grou

p

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85 plus

5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

Female Male

Per cent of Population

Age

Grou

p

2014 2068

Share of population85 plus ≈ +5 pp65 plus ≈ +13 pp15-64 ≈ -9 pp0-14 ≈ -5 pp0-4 ≈ -2 pp

National population projections, 2014(base)-2068, Statistics New Zealand

Percentage Change85 plus ≈ 400 %65 plus ≈ 160 %15-64 ≈ 19 %0-14 ≈ 6 %0-4 ≈ 5 %

Page 6: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

6 Fertility (Children per prime aged women 15-44 years)

1960

1961

1962

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Australia New Zealand Japan China United Kingdom United States

Year

Fert

ility

rat

e

World Bank Health Nutrition and Population Statistics: Population estimates and projections

Replacement rate ≈ 2.1

Page 7: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

7 Life Expectancy

1960

1962

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Australia New Zealand Japan China United Kingdom United States

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

(yea

rs)

World Bank Health Nutrition and Population Statistics: Population estimates and projections

Page 8: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

8 Urbanisation

1960

1962

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Australia New Zealand Japan China United Kingdom United States

Year

Perc

ent

of P

opul

atio

n

Page 9: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

9 Slowing/ending of growth already with us2013 Census Usually Resident Population• North Island 32% CAUs declined (up

from 25% 2001-06)• South Island 36% CAUs declined (up

from 27% 2001-06)• Auckland accounted for 52% of

growth 2006-13• Auckland plus 11 TAs accounted for

75% of growth• Remaining 25% growth spread very

thinly across 35 TAs (20 declined)Jackson, Cameron and Cochrane, 2013

Page 10: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

10

• For New Zealand all growth (2013 – 2031) in 56 (84%) Territorial Authority Areas is projected to be at 65+ years; all are projected to see overall decline at 0-64 years:

• Only 11 TAs escape this scenario

• Hamilton is one• Growth will end in most TAs

Ageing-driven growth

Jackson, Cameron and Cochrane, 2013

Page 11: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

11Greater Hamilton

Page 12: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

12

Waikato Commute 1991-2013 & Territorial Authority Boundaries

2013 Territorial Authority Boundary

1991 2006 2013

Page 13: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

13 Historic Growth in New Zealand Cities

1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 20060

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

Auckland Christchurch WellingtonHamilton Dunedin Tauranga

Year

Popu

lati

on

Arthur Grimes and Nicholas Tarrant. 2013. "A New Zealand Urban Population Database", Motu Working Paper WP 13-07, Wellington: Motu, www.motu.org.nz.

Page 14: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

14The Population of Selected Waikato Towns 1926-2006

1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 20060

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Cambridge Huntly MorrinsvilleYear

Popu

latio

n

Page 15: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

15Waikato Region Projection 2013-2063

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

2051

2053

2055

2057

2059

2061

2063

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

PopulationTotal Working Age 65 plus 0-14 years

Years

Popu

lati

on

Cameron and Cochrane, 2015

Page 16: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

16Experience of Population Change is Very Varied, Relative growth 2013=1000

Cameron and Cochrane, 2015

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

2051

2052

2053

2054

2055

2056

2057

2058

2059

2060

2061

2062

2063

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

TCDC Hauraki Waikato MPDC HamiltonWaipa Otorohanga Waitomo SWDC Taupo

Page 17: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

Female Male

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

Female Male

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

Female Male

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

Female Male

Aging Varies Widely Across Region17 2013 2063

Cameron and Cochrane, 2015

Ham

ilton

TCDC

Change in Pop at 15-64 ≈ - 21%

Change in Pop15-64 ≈ - 48%

Page 18: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

18Projected Changes in Household Numbers 2013-2063

20132016201920222025202820312034203720402043204620492052205520582061

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Family One-person Other multi-person

20132016201920222025202820312034203720402043204620492052205520582061

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Family One-person Other multi-person

20132016201920222025202820312034203720402043204620492052205520582061

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Family One-person Other multi-person

20132016201920222025202820312034203720402043204620492052205520582061

0

1000020000

300004000050000600007000080000

Family One-person Other multi-person

20132016201920222025202820312034203720402043204620492052205520582061

0

500010000

150002000025000300003500040000

Family One-person Other multi-person

20132016201920222025202820312034203720402043204620492052205520582061

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Family One-person Other multi-person Relative Change 2013-2063

Hamilton Waikato WaipaNu

mbe

r of H

ouse

hold

s20

13 =

100

0

Page 19: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

19Projected Changes in Family Numbers 2013-2063

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

2046

2049

2052

2055

2058

2061

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

Couple without children Two-parentOne-parent

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

2046

2049

2052

2055

2058

2061

02000400060008000

100001200014000160001800020000

Couple without children Two-parentOne-parent

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

2046

2049

2052

2055

2058

2061

02000400060008000

10000120001400016000

Couple without children Two-parentOne-parent

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

2046

2049

2052

2055

2058

2061

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Couple without children Two-parentOne-parent

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

2046

2049

2052

2055

2058

2061

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Couple without children Two-parentOne-parent

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

2046

2049

2052

2055

2058

2061

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Couple without children Two-parentOne-parent

Relative Change 2013-2063

Hamilton Waikato Waipa

Num

ber o

f Fam

ilies

2013

= 1

000

Page 20: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

20 Acknowledgement

We would like to acknowledge Professor Natalie Jackson for her input, both direct and indirect, into this presentation.

Page 21: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

The role of transportfor thriving communities

Bridget BurdettSenior Transportation Researcher, TDG

PhD student, University of Waikato

Page 22: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

Outline

1) How transport is delivered in New Zealand

2) What about people who don’t drive?

3) Who is working on these issues

4) Discussion

Page 23: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

How transport is delivered in New Zealand

Page 24: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

Example: Catching the bus to town

Page 25: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

Example: Getting to hospital from Tairua

Page 26: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

What about people who don’t drive?

Page 27: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb
Page 28: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

Who is working on these issues?

Page 29: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb
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Page 32: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

Burdett, B.R.D. (2014) Measuring Accessible Journeys: A tool to enable participation. Municipal Engineer, United Kingdom: In Press

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Page 34: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb
Page 35: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb
Page 36: Demographic Change july 2015 wc bb

Thank You


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