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Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal from a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective 31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal from a North Rhine-Westphalian perspective Presentation at the International Symposium „Coping with City Shrinkage and Demographic Change – Lessons from around the globe“ Evelyn Sucato Research Institute for Regional and Urban Development, Building and Construction of the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia (ILS NRW) Department for Urban Development and Housing
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Page 1: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Demographic Change, Segregation andSocial Urban Renewal

from a North Rhine-Westphalian perspective

Presentation at theInternational Symposium

„Coping with City Shrinkage and Demographic Change –Lessons from around the globe“

Evelyn Sucato

Research Institute for Regional and Urban Development, Building and Constructionof the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia (ILS NRW)

Department for Urban Development and Housing

Page 2: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Contents

1. Demographic Change in North Rhine-Westphalia

2. Segregation processes in North Rhine-Westphalian cities

3. Approaches

4. Conclusions

Page 3: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Dem

ogra

phic

Cha

nge

in N

orth

Rhi

ne-W

estp

halia

Population Development in North Rhine-Westphalia 1975 - 2001

Since the 1970ies population lossesin the Ruhr-Area

Page 4: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Population Change in North Rhine-Westphalia 2002 - 2020D

emog

raph

icC

hang

e in

Nor

th R

hine

-Wes

tpha

lia

2006: 18.08 million

2020: 17.95 million

2040: 16.89 million

Source: ILS

-trends2/04

Page 5: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Development and Prognosis of the age structure in the citiesD

emog

raph

icC

hang

e in

Nor

th R

hine

-Wes

tpha

lia

15,618,5

22,5

17,116,814,2

11,57,6

5,8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 2000 2020

Quelle: eigene Darstellung nach Landtag NRW 2005: 48, Daten LDS NRW

under 19

60 - 74

older than 75

Cities

%

Page 6: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Development of the population older than 75 yearsD

emog

raph

icC

hang

e in

Nor

th R

hine

-Wes

tpha

lia Proportion in 2002 Change of Proportion 2002 – 2020 in %

Source: ILS

-trends2/04

Page 7: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Development of households 2002 – 2040 according to their sizeD

emog

raph

icC

hang

e in

Nor

th R

hine

-Wes

tfalia

16 15,6 14,6 13,6 12,9 12,6 12,5 12,4 12,3

14 13,6 13,1 12,6 12,2 11,9 11,7 11,7 11,7

33,9 34,3 35 35,5 36,3 36,8 36,7 36,4 35,9

36,2 36,5 37,3 38,3 38,6 38,7 39 39,5 40,1

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

1 person

2 persons

3 persons

4 and morepersons

Householdswith

Quelle: eigene Darstellung nach LDS NRW 2005: 7

Page 8: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Change of inhabited housing units compared to the preceding yearD

emog

raph

icC

hang

e in

Nor

th R

hine

-Wes

tfalia

Source: eigene D

arstellung nach LDS

NR

W 2005: 9

-137.000

-112.000

-37.030-41.030

+10.000

+53.030+52.000

+27.030

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

142.000or 2 %

7.4 million

Page 9: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Development of vacancies in North Rhine-Westphalian housing companiesD

emog

raph

icC

hang

e in

Nor

th R

hine

-Wes

tfalia

0,20,4

1,1

22,3

2,7

1,71,9

1,7

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: eigene D

arstellung nach Wfa

2005

%

Page 10: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Proportion of non-Germans in NRWD

emog

raph

icC

hang

e in

Nor

th R

hine

-Wes

tfalia

But on local level:

Dortmund 12.7 %Dortmund Nordstadt 41.5 %

Duisburg 14.9 %Duisburg Marxloh 33.8 %

and more…

Source: LDS, Beiträge Band 819; Basisvariante der Prognose

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1998 2015 2040

Year

%

insgesamt 0-19

11,4 %13,0 %

18,7 %

18,6 %

27,5 %

40,4 %

total

Page 11: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

„A-Factor“ and „Wealth-Factor“ in cities and counties in NRWS

egre

gatio

n pr

oces

ses

in N

orth

Rhi

ne-W

estfa

lian

citie

s

Wohlstandsfaktor (bes. verf. Einkommen)

3,02,01,00,0-1,0-2,0

Arm

e, A

lte, A

rbei

tslo

se, A

uslä

nder

, abn

. Bev

.

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

,5

0,0

-,5

-1,0

-1,5

-2,0

Un

So

Si

Oe

Mk

Hsk

En

HER

HAM

HA

DO

BO

Pb

MiDt

Hx

Hf

Gt

BI

Waf

St

Re

Coe

Bor

MS

GE

BOT

Su

GlGmHs

Eu

BmDn

Ac

LEV

K

BN

AC

Wes

Vie

Ne

Me

Kle

W

SGRs

OB

MHMG

KR

EDU

D

„A-F

acto

r“

„Wealth-Factor“

Source: ILS

NR

W S

chrift 201: 33

Page 12: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Ethnic Segregation, „familiy status“und social status in Essen and Gelsenkirchen

Seg

rega

tion

proc

esse

sin

Nor

th R

hine

-Wes

tfalia

nci

ties

Source: ILS

NR

W S

chrift 201: 52

Page 13: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Approaches

The socially integrative city

Stadtumbau West

• Stabilisation of deprived urban ares and hinder further polarisation

• Recreation and stimulation of the functional cohesion of deprived urban areas

• Catalysts: multiple deprivation, bad life circumstances, segregation

• Catalysts: high vacancies in the housing market and in shops, derelict sites, loss of functions in inner cities

• In North Rhine Westphalia since 1993

• In West Germany since 2004

More information on:

www.sozialestadt.de

www.soziale-stadt.nrw.de

More information on:

www.stadtumbauwest.de

pictures from www.soziale-stadt.nrw.de

Page 14: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Renewal ofhousing stock

and sourroundingDortmund Clarenberg

Source: Cornelia Suhan

Community centre„Alte Heid“

in Oberhausen Knappenviertel

…aftermoder-

nisation in Hamm-Norden

Theater in Gelsenkirchen

Bismarck/Schalke-Nord

Local Caféin Monheim Berliner

ViertelSource: Joachim Bastan

Partner-ship

office in BergheimSüd/West

pictures from www.soziale-stadt.nrw.de

Area improvement / Infrastructure - Impressions

Page 15: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Image / Participation / Networking - Impressions

Logo inSiegen

Fischbacherberg

Communityfestival

inDortmundNordstadt

Participationof residents in

Aachen Ost

Interest group ofresident in

Düren Südost

Communitynewspaper

in HerneHorsthausen

„Marketof different

Cultures“in Duisburg

Marxloh

pictures from www.soziale-stadt.nrw.de

Page 16: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Restructuring / Demolition / Adjustment - Impressions

before and after „Stadtumbau“ in Gelsenkirchen Tossehof and Oer Erkenschwick Schillerparkpictures from www.schillerpark.info and www.stadtumbauwest.de/konzept/PW_Albstadt_Kemper.pdf

Page 17: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Conclusions

• The current West-German perspective on demographic changes isdifferent than the East-German as a result of a lower pressure on thehousing market amongst others. But the future will bring similar effects, so we have to act preventive.

• The perception of long-term population decline and other effects of thedemograpic changes is sometimes still low – especially on local level. Therefore it is necessary to get more awareness from local politics on the topic.

• As demographic change is a multi-dimensional phenomenon we have to consider all aspects at the same time. Integrated area-based approachesand concepts are proven approach but we need to widen theseapproaches city-wide and also integrate regional aspects.

Page 18: Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban …archiv.schader-stiftung.de/docs/sucato_presentation.pdf · Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal ... Demographic

Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective

31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato

Thank you!

Contact:

ILS NRWEvelyn SucatoPhone: +49 231 9051 247Fax: +49 231 9051 195mail to: [email protected]


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