Demographic Change & Silver economy

10th SEMI May 26th 2016, Brussels

Ilias Iakovidis

DG CONNECT

European Commission

Demographic change in a 'storm of crises'

Societal Challenge Major Opportunity

••• 3

Dependency Ratio

•From 1:4 to 1:2

•80+ doubles by 2025

Cost of Care

•Up by 4-8 % of GDP by 2025

Human Resources

•Shrinking work force•Lacking 20 million carers by 2020

Empowerment

•Active Ageing

New Care Models

•Home based

•Integrated care

•Large Efficiency gains

Growth and Markets

•3000 B€ wealth

•85 Million Consumers -and growing

• Large scale uptake of digital innovation

3

DEMOGRAPHIC SILVERCHANGE ECONOMY

SILVER ECONOMY

SPECIALIST DEBATE

SILVER ECONOMY FROM MAINSTREAM DEBATE

G7 ICT Ministerial April 2016 Japan

SILVER ECONOMY TO POLICY DEBATE

EU Silver Economy Strategy, March 2015

• Economic opportunities in the public and consumer markets

• Global Silver Economy valued at $7 trilion per year, to reach $15 trillion by 2020

• Considered the 3rd largest economy in the world

THE SILVER ECONOMY

http://bit.ly/1yiVfF2

A sizeable EU Silver Economy

• 3000 B€ Wealth by people over 65

• 85 Million Consumers over 65 and growing

• <15% ICT use

The Consumer Market

• Care costs ~1000 B€ /year in Europe (8 % GDP)

• 10% for innovation

~100 B€ /year

The Public Market

8

https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/10/what-are-the-economic-implications-of-ageing-populations/

Representative (public) spending and tax profiles by age

Examples of current sectors

• Health and care services for active and healthy ageing

• Age friendly-smart homes, Age friendly cities

• Senior (off season) tourism

• Age friendly workplaces ( Ageing well at work)

• Social / service robotics

National/regional initiatives (FR, DE, UK, PL,)

http://bit.ly/1yiVfF2

10

THE SILVER ECONOMY

35% of 171 countries have a health technology national policy that is

part of the National Health Program, while 12% have an independent

document

44% of 169 countries have a national list of approved medical devices for procurement or reimbursement and 73% carry out the procurement of medical devices at national level

Health technology refers to the application of organized knowledge and skills in the form of devices, medicines, vaccines, procedures and systems developed to solve a health problem and improve quality of lives.

Definition (WHO) World picture

http://www.who.int/topics/technology_medical/en/

some technological breakthroughs,and industrial successes

NEUROPROBES

PASTA

Technology ApplicationICT project

Smart Probes

Packaging ofElectronic threats

Spin-off: ATLAS Neuroengineering: www.atlasneuro.com/

In Vitro diagnostics portable

solutions

Molecular Biology on Chip/foil

In Vivo extra-cellular neurons

recording

Incubator: Primo1D: www.grain-incubation.com/projets/primo-1d/

Smart Textile with integrated

sensors, LED and RFID

LabonFoil

Spin-off: POC Microsolutions, www.pocmicrosolutions.com

Micro-Nano-Photo-Bio-ICT convergence

European Innovation Partnership (2013-

2016)

13

Innovation

Partnership

TODAY

What

EIP on AHA

Is shaped through

• Individual commitments and

collaborative works clustered in 6

Action Groups

• Reference Sites i.e. coalitions of regions, cities, integrated hospitals or

care organisations aimed at

providing a comprehensive,

innovation-based approach to active and healthy ageing.

Why

Partners joining the EIP on AHA can

• contribute in deploying large-scale,

digitally-enabled innovative solutions

for active & healthy ageing

• share and work together for scaling-up

innovative practices

• deliver creative and workable solutions

improving the lives and health of older

people

How

Regular calls launched by the EC

• Call for commitments

OPEN 4.3.2016

https://ec.europa.eu/eip/ageing

First cut-off date: 15 April

More cut-off dates throughout thisyear.

• Call for Reference Sites

How & When

Call for commitments

• On-line submission through the EIP

on AHA portal

https://ec.europa.eu/eip/ageing

always open

• Cut-off dates for the evaluation of

the submitted commitments shall

be set-out by the EC during the

timeframe 2016-2018

• Coherence with Action Plans

objectives

• > 2 500 organisations (SMEs,

industry, research organisations,

civil society / NGOs, health and

care organisations, public

authorities and government

bodies).

21.82%

18.18%

12.73%10.91%

5.45%5.45%3.64%3.64%3.64%3.64%3.64%

1.82%1.82%1.82%1.82%

Country percentage

74.55%

23.64%

1.82%

SME Large Industry Insurance

company

Type of Business Percentage40.00% 40.00%

7.27% 7.27% 5.45%

Health ICT Social Other Pharma

Sector percentage

Who participates

How

Organisations can

• Submit Individual commitments: on-going or not-yet started task (project,

programme, initiative, paper, scientific article, workshop…) promoted by a

single or several organisations addressing one objective of the Action Plans

• Join a new Collaborative work already identified in the Action Plan or propose

a new one. A Collaborative work is defined as an agreed specific objective

carried out by several individual commitments which are grouped together for

jointly tackling a common challenge

• Contribute to Sprints: short-time period (6 months) prioritised tasks delivered within a Collaborative work

• Participate to a Synergy: thematic working groups which interests are cross-

cutting to one or several Action Groups under the EIP on AHA

How

Commitments, Collaborative works and Synergies results and outcomes are

• reported and monitored through the

on-line Commitment Tracker Tool

• published and automatically

integrated in periodic report

• analysed for producing statistics,

graphs and quantitative indicators of

impact

How

EIP on AHA partner organisations are invited to share their Innovative Practices

• through the on-line Repository

• thus contributing to the European

scaling-up strategy

• for the mobilisation of knowledge and

resources enabling the implementation

of innovative solutions

Integrated care What this means for patients

Hospital

Home Care services/Nur

ses

Primary Care PractitionersAllied Health Professionals

Specialists

Long-Term Care Homes

2222

Community, Social Services, Informal carers

Common principles for

coordinated care plans

so all complex patients

will have the same

experience

Help for patients and

families to navigate the

health system

Listening to and

involving the patients,

families and caregivers

in all stages of the care

process

Integrated care Best Practices

https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/eipaha/library/index/show/id/728

Good practice examples

in Integrated care

(from EIP on AHA

partners)

Connected and Age Friendly Housing

24

•Care shifting to the home

• People prefer to remain at home when ageing

• Technology makes it possible

Drivers

• Policy incentives for investments

• Smart connected homes

• Accessible buildings/homes

• European Common Framework of Reference/Guidelines

Solutions

• Sustainable health and care systems

• Scalable European/Global markets

•New jobs and growth

Opportunities

Age Friendly Housing

25

safety & security

Health/care monitoring

PreventionWellbeing

Social Inclusion

Daily living

safety & security

26

MARKET VALUE Market revenues grew by 60 percent to € 0.77 billion (US$ 1.0 billion) in 2014. The market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 58 percent between 2014 and 2019 to reach € 7.6 billion (US$ 10.2 billion) at the end of the forecast period.

POTENTIAL FOR GROWTHThe number of European households that have adopted smart home systems is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61 percent during the next five years, resulting in 29.7 millionsmart homes by 2019.

http://www.berginsight.com/ReportPDF/Summary/bi-sh3-sum.pdf

Smart Homes

27

A fast growing market

• 2 million homes in Germany needs adaptation ~13.1 B€

28

Is DemographicChange an Opportunityfor Real EstateInvestment?

Increasing Number of

Investors are Looking for Alternatives

Source: PwC Emerging Trends Europe Survey 2016

Is DemographicChange an Opportunityfor Real EstateInvestment?

29Source: PwC Emerging Trends Europe Survey 2015

Retirement Living and

Healthcare "top" the list of "Sector

Investment prospects"

DG Communication Networks, Content and Technology

Use of robotics applications

1

2

3

4

5

6

•Service / Domestic Robots for:

•Domestic tasks

•Entertainment

•Handicap assistance

•Personal transportation

•Home security & surveillance

Professional Service Robots for:

Professional cleaningInspectionMaintenanceConstruction and demolitionLogisticsMedical roboticsDefence, rescue & security appsMobile platforms in general use Robot arms in general use Public relation robotsHumanoids

DG Communication Networks, Content and Technology

Service robotics

1

2

3

4

5

6

Service / Domestic Robots: Robot butler, companion, assistants, humanoidsperform Vacuuming, floor cleaning, lawn moving, pool cleaning, window cleaning

Entertainment robots: Toy/hobby robotsperform Education, cognitive or physical training.

Handicap assistance robotics: Robotized wheelchairs, assistant robots perform navigation, mobility, personal rehabilitation and other assistance functions.

DG Communication Networks, Content and Technology

Service robotics statistics

1

2

3

4

5

6

DG Communication Networks, Content and Technology

Research related to robotics

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ambient intelligence: "electronic environments that are sensitive and responsive to the presence of people deployed mainly through consumer electronics, telecommunications and computing."

Smart environments: "an environment where different kinds of smart devices are continuously working to make inhabitants' lives more comfortable."

DG Communication Networks, Content and Technology

FFuture robotics research

1

2

3

4

5

6

Future robotics research work should stress:

Development of context awareness.

Service integration and interoperability.

Integrating robotics components with smart environments.

Development of service models according to user requirements.

Take into more account ethical, privacy and safety issues.

••• 35

Intelligent robot (Kompaï) to enableindependent living for ageing people, offering:

• Tele-assistance

• Access to services that support independence

TV Report on http://www.euronews.com/2011/02/28/meet-kompai-your-robot-friend/

DOMEO AAL Project

• Robot Hector

• - scans environment and patients body (falls / blood pressure)

• - provides entertainment +

• Memory and cognitive training

• - reminders for tasks (medicine)

• - communication with doctors or family

COMPANIABLE FP7 Project

H2020 SC1 Main research

priorities (2016-2017)

•Infectious Diseases

•InnovFin

•Human

•biomonitoring

•Maternal and child health

•

eHealth

•Active and

•healthy ageing

•Personalised

•medicine

AAL2*: 2014 - 2022

• AAL: €600 million from 22 EU countries + EU funding €150 million

• Scope AAL 2: Market-oriented ICT research in assisted living technologies & services

• New instruments: e.g. prizes or innovation grants

• More EU co-funding: Participating countries pay €225 million (indicative), EU pays up to €175 million (indicative, ~40% of total public funding)

*Ambient assisted living Joint Programme, Art 185, P2P

2 Million € prize in 2016 for the best solution to address ageing challenge

In early 2016 the European Commission will launch a Horizon Prize that rewards the innovator or team who comes up with the best solution to address the challenges and opportunities of ageing and to improve the quality of life of senior citizens.

Their breakthrough will receive €2 million from Horizon 2020. http://europa.eu/!ck76Xw

The other challenges were: Childhood obesity, Citizens for clean energy Integration of immigrants in the labour market Women entrepreneurship and women-led enterprises

Commission R & IProgrammes

• H2020: http://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/portal/desktop/en

• Calls 2016-2017: ttp://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/portal/desktop/en

• Innovation Actions, PPI, PCP, SME Measures, Innovfin, ...

• AAL: http://www.aal-europe.eu/

• IMI: http://www.imi.europa.eu/

• EDCTP: http://www.edctp.org/

• EIT KIC on Healthy living and Active Ageing

• http://eit.europa.eu/eit-community/eit-health

• Joint Programming Initiatives: http://www.neurodegenerationresearch.eu/

https://www.healthydietforhealthylife.eu/

http://www.jp-demographic.eu/

http://www.jpiamr.eu/

http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/en/lab-market-what-happens-after-projects-end

For more information:

https://ec.europa.eu/eip/ageing

https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/policies-ageing-well-ict

Twitter

@EIP_AHA

Ilias.Iakovidis@ec.europa.eu

••• 43

What isIntegrated care

Integrated Care: is a coherent set of methods and models on the funding, administrative, organisational, service delivery and clinical levels designed to create connectivity, alignment and collaboration within and between the cure and care sectors.

• Kodner & Spreeuwenberg (2002)

The management and delivery of health and care services so that citizens receive a continuum of preventive and curative services, according to their needs over time and across different levels of the health and care system.

Related terms:

Chronic Disease Management, Telehealth, Telecare, eHealth, Patient monitoring, Independent Living, Ambient Assisted Living

What is the Silver economy?

• Money spent by consumers, companies, and governments on products, services and activities as people age

• Employment, personal income, corporate revenue and profit, personal and corporate paid taxes, and other macroeconomic multiplier benefits

• Productivity increases from changes that integrate the physical capabilities and behaviours of workers aged 50+

• Value creation by new 50+ entrepreneurs

• Tangible and intangible benefits of retaining older skilled workers

44

To get Savings Go Where the Money Is

U.S. population, by magnitude of

expenditure, 2009

1%5%

10%

45%

65%

22%

50%

97%

$90,061

$40,682

$26,767

$7,978

Annual Mean

Expenditure

• 10% of patients account for 65% of costs

• Focus efforts on patients with highest

costs

• Three part strategy:

– Primary care/delivery system reform

– Payment reform

– Health information technology

E. Mossialos, LSE

Number of chronicdisorders by age group

Source: Barnett et al. 2012. Lancet 370: 37-43.

Outcome

Indicators

on

intervention

/

commitment

level

Triple Win SustainabilityQuality of LifeInnovation &

Growth

Headline Target

HRQoL

Risk

factors

Falls

Frailty

Cognitive

decline

Functional

status

Adherence

Mental

healthNutrition

Mortality

Physical

Activity

Incremental change

in resources used

(Local) unit cost for

resources

xNr. of

implemented

technologies

Nr. of new

SMEs

Nr. of users

of new

technologies

Nr. of created

jobs

• Hospital (re-) admissions

• Length of hospital stay

• Emergency visits

• Primary care visits

• Specialist visits

• Institutionalisation

Measuring impact of

Digital Innovation

What you do NOT measureyou do NOT get

MAFEIP Monitoring & Assessment

Framework

Region Skane

University Hospital Olomouc

City of Oulu

Coimbra

Southern Denmark

Collage (3)

Saxony

Ile-de-France Pays de la Loire

Lower-Rhine Council Languedoc-Roussillon

Liguria Campania

Friuli Venezia Giulia Emilia-Romagna

Piemonte

Northern NetherlandsTwente

Province of Gelderland and Overjssel

South Holland Province Noord-Brabant:

Slimmer Leven

GaliciaBasque Country

MadridCataloniaValencia

Andalusia

LiverpoolScotland

Northern Ireland Wales

Yorkshire

Reference Sites - coverage

EIP on Active & Healthy Ageing

48

SILVER ECONOMY A growth opportunityfor Governments

40.0

40.5

41.0

41.5

42.0

42.5

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Emp

loym

ent

(mill

ion

)

GD

P (€

trill

ion

)

GDP, increment in alternative trajectory, constant 2010 prices (leftscale)

GDP, current trajectory, constant 2010 prices (left scale)

Employment, alternative trajectory (right scale)

Employment, current trajectory (right scale)

30.0

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

32.5

33.0

33.5

34.0

34.5

35.0

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Emp

loym

ent

(mill

ion

)

GD

P (

£ t

rilli

on

)

GDP, increment in alternative trajectory, constant 2010 prices (left scale)

GDP, current trajectory, constant 2010 prices (left scale)

Employment, alternative trajectory (right scale)

Employment, current trajectory (right scale)

For Germany, the silver economy holds the

potential to

• Boost GDP by €61 billion, an increase of 2.1

percent above the current trajectory.

• Lift employment levels by 1.5 million by

2020.

For the UK, the silver economy holds the

potential to

• Boost GDP by £46 billion, an increase of 2.5

percent above the current trajectory.

• Lift employment levels by 1.3 million by

2020.

Source Accenture Study 2012 49

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

R&D budgetsTotal GBAORD (million 2010 dollars, constant prices and PPP)

2008=100

Canada France Germany Italy Japan

Korea United Kingdom United States OECD

Workforce evolution

52