United Nations Population Division, 2011United Nations Population Division, 2011 11
Demographic dynamics of Demographic dynamics of youth youth
POPULATION DIVISIONPOPULATION DIVISIONDESADESA
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The United Nations defines The United Nations defines ‘youth’ as those persons ‘youth’ as those persons between the ages of 15 and 24 between the ages of 15 and 24 years. This definition was made years. This definition was made during preparations for the during preparations for the International Youth Year (1985) International Youth Year (1985) and endorsed by the General and endorsed by the General AssemblyAssembly
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Definitions used in this Definitions used in this presentationpresentation
Youth:Youth: Persons aged 15 to Persons aged 15 to 2424
Adolescents: Adolescents: Persons aged 15 to Persons aged 15 to 1919
Young adults:Young adults: Persons aged 20 to Persons aged 20 to 2424
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1.1. Population dynamicsPopulation dynamics
2.2. Age structureAge structure
3.3. MarriageMarriage
4.4. Adolescent fertilityAdolescent fertility
5.5. Use of contraceptionUse of contraception
6.6. MortalityMortality
7.7. International migrationInternational migration
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1.1. Population dynamicsPopulation dynamics
United Nations Population Division, 2011United Nations Population Division, 2011 66
Population aged 15 to 24Population aged 15 to 24
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.419
70
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Bill
ion
s
1.25
0.16
0.17 Least developed countries
Developed countries
Other developing countries
World 1.2 billion
0.810.89
0.14
0.30
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The number of countries with The number of countries with rapidly rising populations aged 15 rapidly rising populations aged 15
to 24 will decreaseto 24 will decrease
28
1135 2 3 00
48
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Africa Asia LAC Oceania Developedcountries
Num
ber
of c
ount
ries
1990-2010 2010-2030
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The number of countries with The number of countries with declining populations aged 15 to declining populations aged 15 to
24 will increase24 will increase
7 9
2
27
21
2
3232
16
0
10
20
30
40
Africa Asia LAC Oceania Developedcountries
Num
ber
of c
ount
ries
1990-2010 2010-2030
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2.2. Age structureAge structure
United Nations Population Division, 2011United Nations Population Division, 2011 1010
Population aged 15-24 as Population aged 15-24 as percentage of the totalpercentage of the total populationpopulation
0
5
10
15
20
2519
75
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Per
cen
tag
e
17
17
20Least developed countries
Developed countries
Other developing countries
13
20
11
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Population aged 15-24 as Population aged 15-24 as percentage of the total populationpercentage of the total population
0
5
10
15
20
2519
70
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Per
cen
tag
e
1417
22
India
Republic of Korea
19
Brazil 11
20
10
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Population aged 15-24 as Population aged 15-24 as percentage of the total populationpercentage of the total population
0
5
10
15
20
2519
70
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Per
cen
tag
e
1418
21
Egypt
Yemen20
Tunisia
1821
11
22
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3.3. MarriageMarriage
54
36 37
10
32 35
24
20
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Bangladesh2005
Chad 2002 Ethiopia 2003 Egypt 2006
Per
cent
age
40-44 20-24
Percentage of females married by Percentage of females married by age 15age 15
of women aged 20-24 and 40-44of women aged 20-24 and 40-44
United Nations Population Division, 2011United Nations Population Division, 2011 1515
72 69
33
6672
49
17
87
0102030405060708090
100
Bangladesh2005
Chad 2002 Ethiopia 2003 Egypt 2006
Per
cent
age
40-44 20-24
Percentage of females married by Percentage of females married by age 18age 18
of women aged 20-24 and 40-44of women aged 20-24 and 40-44
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Median percentage of ever Median percentage of ever married women aged 20-24 in married women aged 20-24 in
MDCsMDCs 52
11
1970-79 2000-08
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4.4. Adolescent fertilityAdolescent fertility
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Adolescent birth rate and Adolescent birth rate and proportion ever married among proportion ever married among
women aged 15-19women aged 15-19
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Proportion ever-marrried women aged 15-19
Bir
ths
pe
r 1
00
0 w
om
en
ag
ed
15
-19
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Least developed countries
United Nations Population Division, 2011United Nations Population Division, 2011 1919
5.5. Use of contraceptionUse of contraception
United Nations Population Division, 2011United Nations Population Division, 2011 2020
Mean level of unmet need and total Mean level of unmet need and total demand for family planning among demand for family planning among women who are married or in a union, women who are married or in a union,
by region and age groupby region and age group Source: Source: Demographic and Health Surveys, DHS StatCompiler Demographic and Health Surveys, DHS StatCompiler
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6.6. MortalityMortality
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Percentage of 15-year olds dying Percentage of 15-year olds dying before age 25before age 25
1
2
4
MDCs,NorthernAfrica,
Eastern Asia
South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica
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32
46
71
0102030405060708090
Least developedcountries
Other lessdeveloped countries
More developedcountries
Per
cent
age
Share of deaths from injuries in Share of deaths from injuries in the age group 15-24, 2008the age group 15-24, 2008
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7.7. International International migrationmigration
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Distribution of Distribution of migrant inflows by age migrant inflows by age
to selected countries to selected countries in Europein Europe
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85age
percentage
Source: Eurostat, 2011
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Migrant stock as a share Migrant stock as a share of the population aged 15-24, of the population aged 15-24,
201020108.7
1.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Per
cen
t
More developed regions Less developed regions
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●● Youth are major agents of Youth are major agents of demographic change. This means that demographic change. This means that young people are themselves young people are themselves changing , in several respects changing , in several respects dramatically.dramatically.
●● Most demographic characteristics Most demographic characteristics of youth differ from those of their of youth differ from those of their older peers, let alone parents.older peers, let alone parents.
●● In several respects the In several respects the demographic differences between demographic differences between regions and countries are particularly regions and countries are particularly deep among youth. deep among youth.