Demographic Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness

Bivariate PresentationPOL 2422008 StudentDemographic Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness

RationaleImportance of Israeli/Palestinian conflictWork in other courses and earlier assignmentsDesire to understand effect of conflict on young people

Data SetIsrael 2003 Data SetN = 475

Dependant Variable: HawkishnessHawkishness measures right wing views on national securityCreated IndexCreation of Palestinian StateNegotiation even if Terror PersistsDiplomacy vs. ForceBelief the conflict will endLabour or Likud on securityAlpha = .85

Alpha > 0.64Independent Variable: AgeCoded into 3 categories:Under 30 (29.3%)30 to 54 (46.7%)55 and Older (24%)

HypothesisX = AgeY = HawkishnessX YAs people get older they hold more hawkish views on national securityYoung soldiersOptimismLeft/Right political support

Hawkishness by AgeHawkishnessAgeUnder 3030 to 5455 to 60Low26%38%30%Medium29%30%35.5%High45%32%35%N134214110TauB = -.0637Significance of Chi-square = .0777

Preliminary ConclusionsExtremely weak negative relationship between Age and HawkishnessNot statistically significantConfirms Null HypothesisExplanations for negative resultService in IDFSeparate Education Garfinkle: Politics and Society in Modern Israel

New Independent Variable: ReligionCoded into 4 categories:Secular (50.1%)Traditional (33.0%)Religious (12.1%)Haredi (4.8%)

New HypothesisX = ReligiosityY = HawkishnessX YMore religious Israelis will hold more Hawkish views on National SecurityReligious Connection to LandLack of Flexibility

Hawkishness by ReligiosityHawkishnessReligiositySecularTraditionalReligiousHarediLow42.2%30.1%8.9%Medium31.9%33.3%30.4%4.5%High25.9%36.6%60.7%95.5%N2321535622TauC = .28Significance of Chi-Square = 0.000One-Way ANOVA: secular and traditional distinct, Religious and Haredi are not

ConclusionsConfirms hypothesis - moderately strong relationship between Hawkishnes and Religiosity. Statistically SignificantHaredi and Religious do not differ significantly, but Secular, Traditional and Religious doExtremely high hawkishness among HarediExemption from conscription (Israel Since 1980, Ben-Porat et al)

Future QuestionsAge and HawkishnessSpecific Israeli conditions or military service?Religion and HawkishnessSpecific to Israel or generalizable?Lebanon war vs. controlling greater Israel

Appendix: Syntax*code and test index*missing values A19 (4) recode A12 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into PalStrecode A14 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into Negotrecode A19 (1=0)(2=1) into TlkFrcerecode A20 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into ConfEndrecode A48 (1=1)(2=0)(3=.5) into LabLikrecode A49 (1=1)(2=.83)(3=.66)(4=.5)(5=.33)(6=.16)(7=0) into RightRELIABILITY /VARIABLES=PalSt Negot TlkFrce ConfEnd LabLik Right /SCALE(all) ALL /SUMMARY=all

compute rawindex = PalSt+Negot+TlkFrce+ConfEnd+LabLik+Right

recode rawindex (0 thru 2.32 = 1)(2.33 thru 4.31 = 2)(4.32 thru 6 = 3) into hawkvalue labels hawk 1'low'2'moderate'3'high'.

*Hawkishness vs. Age*crosstab tables=hawk by AGE /cells=column count /statistics=BTAU chisq

oneway hawk by AGE(1,3) /ranges=scheffe /statistics = all

*Hawkishness vs. Religiosity*crosstab tables=hawk by B91 /cells=column count /statistics=CTAU chisq

oneway hawk by B91(1,4) /ranges=scheffe /statistics = all