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Demographic Transition in Thailand

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Demographic Transition in Thailand. Population as enumerated by the censuses. Population in Thailand increased 8 folds, from 8.3 m. in 1910 to 65.4 m. in 2010. * Cross border migrants were included. Demographic Transition in Thailand. Number (mill.) Rate (per 1,000). Population. CBR. CDR. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Page 1: Demographic Transition in Thailand
Page 2: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Demographic Transition in Thailand• Population as enumerated by the

censuses.Year Population1910 8.3 Million1919 9.2 Million1929 11.5 Million1937 14.5 Million1947 17.4 Million1960 26.3 Million1970 34.4 Million1980 44.5 Million1990 54.5 Million2000 60.9 Million2010 65.4 Million

** Cross border migrants were included.

Population in Thailand increased 8 folds, from 8.3 m. in 1910 to 65.4 m. in 2010.

Page 3: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Demographic Transition in ThailandNumber (mill.) Rate (per 1,000)

CDR

CBRPopulatio

n

• The “population explosion” in Thailand occurred during 1950s, 1960s to 1970s.

• CBR (>4%) – CDR (<1%) Growth rate >3% per year.

Page 4: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Demographic Transition in ThailandNumber (mill.) Rate (per 1,000)

CDR

CBR

Population

• Now, the “Thai population” is stabilizing at 64-65 million.

• The population growth rate is 0.5% per year.

CBR (1.2%) – CDR (0.7%) GR of 0.5% per year.• The reduction of growth rate,

from >3% (40 years ago) to 0.5% (now) is due mainly to sharp decline in fertility during the past 3 decades.

CBR at 4% (40 years ago) to 1.2% (now).

Page 5: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Fertility Transition in Thailand

Note :SPCSOFTCPS

= Survey of Population Change= Survey of Fertility in Thailand= Contraceptive Prevalence Survey

= Longitudinal Survey= National Survey= Contraceptive Use Patterns in Thailand

LSNSCUPS

Four periods of fertility transition in Thailand:1.High fertility : before

19702.Fertility decline :

1970–1990 3.Low fertility :

1991–1996 4.Below replacement

fertility : 1997–present

Page 6: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Fertility Transition in Thailand

Number of births per year has been declining.• From 1963-1983,

“one million birth population cohort”

• In 2010, 0.78 million births registered.

• TFR a 2, at least 0.9 million births needed.

• If TFR at 2020 = 1.2, number of births would be 0.6 million.

“Replacement level”

Number of births (100,000)

Note: Before 2009, numbers of births are from vital registration and TFRs are from Survey of Population Change. After 2009, numbers of births are from projection and TFRs are from logistic fitted.

Page 7: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Fertility Transition in Thailand

Average number of children per woman (throughout her childbearing period)

Whole kingdom1.5

Urban 1.0Rural 1.7

(Source: SPC 2005 – 2006)

RegionBangkok

0.9Central

1.2North 1.6Northeast

2.0South 1.5

(Source: SPC 2005 – 2006)

Muslims in 3 most southern provinces

3.4(Source: Est. from RH Survey 2003)

Highland ethnic groups

Karen 2.2Hmong4.8

(Source: Gray, et al. 2004)

Cross-border migrant women

Myanmar3.6

(Source: Pimonpan & Sukanya, 2004)

Page 8: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Number of years for TFR to decline from 5.5 to 2.2

Page 9: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Thailand: Population in broad age groups, 2000-2030 (thousand)

Age group 2000 2010 2020 2030NUMBER

Low projection      0-14 15,674 14,629 12,661 10,20315-29 15,517 16,076 14,989 13,85730-64 27,198 32,183 34,539 34,199(15-64) (42,715) (48,259) (49,528) (47,956)65+ 3,958 5,251 7,594 11,209Total 62,347 68,139 69,782 69,369

PERCENTAGELow projection      0-14 25 21 18 1515-29 25 24 21 2030-64 44 47 50 49(15-64) (69) (71) (71) (69)65+ 6 8 11 16Total 100 100 100 100

Source: Author’s calculation; figures from United Nations Population Division, 2008

Page 10: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Trends in percentage of population aged 65+

Source: United Nations Population Division 2008, medium projection.

Page 11: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Thailand’s new demographic situation

• Nearing end of population growth• Remarkable change in age pyramids• Declining child and young adult population • Ageing population• Demographic dividend ended• Migration patterns lowering av. education• Population decline in many rural areas• Growth of the medium cities

Page 12: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Population Pyramids of Thailand 1960-2030

Page 13: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Thailand: Index of Growth of Age Groups, 2000-2030

Page 14: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Population Ageing and Growth of the Older Population, Thailand 1970-2030

Page 15: Demographic Transition in Thailand

• Decrease in number of students entering compulsory education, especially primary schools in rural villages.

Impact of Fertility Decline

School size in 200813,909 schools with less than 120

students.381 schools of less than 20

students.262 schools with no students.• Caused by

a) Declining number of birthsb) Parents’ out-migrationc) Commuting to urban schools because of better roads and

transportation

Page 16: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Population-responsive policies

• How to best utilize and care for growing elderly population?

• How to raise human capital of a shrinking workforce?

• How to prepare health care workforce to adapt to changing care needs?

• How to best utilize foreign workers?• How to plan for growing cities and rural

population decline?

Page 17: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Living arrangements of persons age 60 and above, Thailand 1986-2007

Page 18: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Percentage of households having members attending post-secondary education, by indicator of economic status

Page 19: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Influencing population trends

• Over three decades, Thailand focused on lowering fertility rates

• Total fertility rate has fallen to 1.5, far below replacement level

• Longer-term implications of fertility maintained at this level or below are negative:– Population ageing– Contraction of workforce– Negative population momentum – population decline

Page 20: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Policy Consideration

• More emphasis should be on quality than on quantity of births.

• Thailand should have both pro- and anti-natalist policy :– Pro-natalist : among adults, intended couples.– Anti-natalist : among adolescents.

Births from adolescent mothers, 2009Age of mother % Number (x 1,000)

Under 15 0.38 2.9Under 20 16.08 120.1

Source: Calculated from registered births reported in Public Health Statistics, not adjusted for under registration.

Page 21: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Policy ConsiderationIncentives for pro-natalist :• Tax reduction for unlimited number of children.• Revise the regulation on the limited 3 children to

receive financial and welfare assistance from the government.

• Any incentive measure must not lead to discrimination of labour employment and promotion.

Page 22: Demographic Transition in Thailand

Learning from Asian neighbours• Other low-fertility Asian countries are seriously

concerned • Too slow in introducing pro-natalist policies • Thailand should now introduce a set of measures to

facilitate raising of children:– Paid maternity (and paternity) leave– Flexible working hours– Eldercare support– Subsidized childcare– Tax incentives and/or baby bonus schemes

• Can such measures work?


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