Demographic Transition Model10/8Bell-ringer:

What information is this graph displaying?

Give one fact that you can determine from this graph?

Stages in Classic 4-Stage Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

(Some mention a new 5th stage)

Stage 1: “Pre-Industrial”

High birth rates and high death rates (both about 40)

NIR = 0 or very slow rate

No country or world region still in Stage One. STAGE ONE – Agrarian society, lots of deaths from famine and disease.

Stage 2: “Early Industrial”

High birth rates (over 30) but death rates begin to decline (to about 20)

NIRs increase sharply (pop. explosion); growth rate increases throughout Stage Two

Growth not from increase in births, but from decline in deaths

MDCs = starts early 1800sLDCs = starts after 1950s

Why move from Stage 1 to Stage 2?

• REMEMBER – the question is…. Why would more people live longer (lower CDR), NOT why would more people be born (higher CBR)?

Stage 3: “Later Industrial”

Birth rates decline sharply (to about 15) and Death rates decline a bit more (to about 10 or less)

Pop. Growth occurs, but at a reduced and declining rate

MDCs = starts in late 1800sLDCs = starts after 1980s*

* Or hasn’t started yet

Why move from Stage 2 to Stage 3?

• REMEMBER – the question is…. Why would the birth rate drop rapidly once the CDR has been reduced?

• Why would this happen at different times in MDC and LDC?

Stage 4: “Post-Industrial”

Birth rates and death rates both low (about 10)

Population growth very low or zero (ZPG – zero population growth)

MDCs = starts after 1970sLDCs = hasn’t started yet

Much of Europe now or soon in population declineas birth rates drop far below replacement level

Population Pyramids: 5 things you notice. What does this image show you?

Analyze this graph: 5 things you notice. What is DIFFERENT about this pyramid?

Vertical axis: Age groups

Horizontal Axis:Percentage/number people

Elderly Dependents

Working populations

Young dependents

• Dependency Ratio – Ratio of dependents to the working population

• SO WHAT?