Demographic Transition Demographic Transition ModelModel

Stages of the Demographic Stages of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)Transition Model (DTM)

Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition Modela theory to explain human population a theory to explain human population

changechangebased on ●idea that all societies want to transition from pre-modern to postmodern●experience of richer, fully developed states (Europe, US, Australia…)

Important Demographic Important Demographic WordsWords

Demographic- statistical Demographic- statistical characteristics of a populationcharacteristics of a population

Birth rate- childbirths per 1,000 Birth rate- childbirths per 1,000 people per year Ex. US- 14people per year Ex. US- 14

Death rate- deaths per 1,000 people Death rate- deaths per 1,000 people per year Ex. US- 8per year Ex. US- 8

Infant mortality rate- number of Infant mortality rate- number of babies who die before the age of 1 babies who die before the age of 1 per 1,000 per year Ex. US- 6.5per 1,000 per year Ex. US- 6.5

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)- the average Total Fertility Rate (TFR)- the average number of children that would be born to number of children that would be born to a woman during her child bearing years a woman during her child bearing years Ex. US- 2.1Ex. US- 2.1

Replacement Rate- number of children a Replacement Rate- number of children a women needs to have to replace the women needs to have to replace the current population- 2.1. Not 2 to account current population- 2.1. Not 2 to account for deaths. Lesser developed countries for deaths. Lesser developed countries have a higher Replacement Rate.have a higher Replacement Rate.

Life Expectancy- average number of Life Expectancy- average number of years that people live. Ex. US- males- 75; years that people live. Ex. US- males- 75; females- 80females- 80

Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids

Stage 1Stage 1

Stage 1: Low GrowthStage 1: Low Growth– Pre-industrial societiesPre-industrial societies– Much human sufferingMuch human suffering

Birth rate high Birth rate high death rates highdeath rates high Why?Why?

– Epidemics, plagues, famines Epidemics, plagues, famines and wars and wars

– High IMRHigh IMR– Cost of raising a child = low Cost of raising a child = low – Children are “insurance” for Children are “insurance” for

parents in their old ageparents in their old age

Population Pyramid – Stage Population Pyramid – Stage 11

No StatesNo States Some Some

isolated isolated populations, populations, such as such as rainforest rainforest tribestribes

StageStage 2 2

Stage 2: High GrowthStage 2: High Growth

Death rates decline, but birth rates remain Death rates decline, but birth rates remain high high population explosion population explosion

Why?Why?– Improved sanitationImproved sanitation– Greater food supply b/cGreater food supply b/c

of improvements in of improvements in agriculture (crop rotation)agriculture (crop rotation)

– Europe – agricultural Europe – agricultural revolution revolution industrial industrial revolution revolution

Can lead to migration Can lead to migration

Population Pyramid – Stage Population Pyramid – Stage 22

Ex: Yemen, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Laos, Ex: Yemen, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Laos, most of Sub-Saharan Africa, states in most of Sub-Saharan Africa, states in Central AmericaCentral America

Discuss 2 things that you Discuss 2 things that you learned or found learned or found

interesting about interesting about STAGE STAGE 1 or 2 of the DTM1 or 2 of the DTM!!

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Work with a partner

Stage 3Stage 3

Stage 3: Moderate GrowthStage 3: Moderate Growth

Significant decline in Significant decline in birth ratesbirth rates

Need for childrenNeed for children UrbanizationUrbanization Education Education Child labor Child labor Contraception useContraception use Women’s rightsWomen’s rights

Family planning clinic in Kuala Terenganu, Malaysia

Population Pyramid – Stage Population Pyramid – Stage 33

Ex: India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Ex: India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Costa Rica, Indonesia, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Costa Rica, NicaraguaNicaragua

Stage 4Stage 4

Stage 4: Low to Zero Stage 4: Low to Zero GrowthGrowth

Birth & death rates Birth & death rates lowlow

Stable (but high) Stable (but high) populationpopulation

TFR TFR ≤ 2.5≤ 2.5 Can include baby Can include baby

boomsbooms Birth rates lowest Birth rates lowest

where women are where women are most involved in most involved in workforceworkforce

Beach in the Netherlands – few children

Population Pyramid – Stage Population Pyramid – Stage 44

Ex: US, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Australia, Ex: US, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, most of Europe, Sri Lanka, New Zealand, most of Europe, Sri Lanka, Iran, ChinaIran, China

Stage 5: Negative GrowthStage 5: Negative Growth Not part of original Not part of original

DTMDTM Death rates higher Death rates higher

than birth ratesthan birth rates Declining Declining

populationpopulation TFR TFR ≤ 2.1≤ 2.1 High life expectancy High life expectancy

and low labor forceand low labor force In developed In developed

countriescountriesJapan’s aging population presents different population problems

Population Pyramid – Stage Population Pyramid – Stage 55

Ex: Japan, Hong Kong, many East European Ex: Japan, Hong Kong, many East European and East Asian countriesand East Asian countries

Discuss how population Discuss how population changes as countries changes as countries

become more developed. become more developed. Are the changes positive or Are the changes positive or

negative? Why?negative? Why?

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