39
Demographics in the 21 st Century • Current trends – regional & local population & employment – aging boomers & labor force – diversity • Resulting challenges
Demographics in the 21st Century
• Current trends– regional & local population & employment– aging boomers & labor force– diversity
• Resulting challenges
Population 1860-2004
1,4246,843
13,722
20,62126,312
29,885
40,663
53,76657,890
70,745
85,806
94,820
9,524
21,543 19,80623,119
28,014
35,426
42,65848,228
65,532
84,104
92,006
106,470
124,277
134,282
5,3215,0133,953
7,84419,793
22,497
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Rochester
Olmsted
2004 City Limits
SDO Projections
County 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Dodge 15,731 17,731 19,860 22,250 24,450Fillmore 20,777 21,122 21,820 22,920 23,780Goodhue 40,690 44,127 47,140 50,430 52,890Mower 37,385 38,603 39,900 41,610 42,990Wabasha 19,744 21,610 23,270 24,930 26,090Winona 47,828 49,985 52,570 54,530 56,090Olmsted 106,470 124,277 140,510 156,290 170,530Total 288,625 317,455 345,070 372,960 396,820
Source: State Demographer’s Office 2002 projections
Population by County – D6
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
DodgeCounty
FillmoreCounty
FreebornCounty
GoodhueCounty
HoustonCounty
MowerCounty
OlmstedCounty
RiceCounty
SteeleCounty
WabashaCounty
WinonaCounty
1990 Census
2000 Census
2010 SDO
2010 at current rate
Olmsted County Growth Projections170,530
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Census
ROCOG 77
SDO 82
ROCOG 93 Moderate
ROCOG 93 High
SDO 1998
SDO 2002
ROCOG: Rochester Olmsted Council of Governments. SDO: Minnesota State Demographer’s Office.
Projected Population Growth
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
WinonaWabashaMowerGoodhue
FillmoreDodgeOlmsted
Source: State Demographer’s Office 2002 projections
How much will Olmsted County grow?
• At State Demographer’s projected Olmsted share of region’s growth, it will increase ~46,250 from 124,277 in 2000 to 170,530 by 2030
• At historic Olmsted share using State Demographer’s regional population forecast, it will increase to 182,465 by 2030
• This would still require at least 20,000 more commuters from surrounding counties, roughly a 100% increase
How much will Rochester grow?
• At projected Olmsted share of region & continued Rochester share, around 41,000, to 126,700 by 2030 (includes annexations)
• At historic Olmsted share & continued Rochester share of County, about 50,000, to 136,300 by 2030 (includes annexations)
• Assumes increased commuting.
2,179
3,141
1,907
2,6211,993
347
232
498
439554
251 90
147
3,817256
105
104
236
41
District 6 Commuter ExchangesWith Olmsted County
To Olmsted
From Olmsted
Employment Growth
From 1990 through 2004, we have
• grown from 65,700 to 90,175 non-farm wage & salary jobs,
• an increase of 24,475 jobs,
• an increase of 37% overall,
• at a rate averaging over 2.1% per year.
1990-2004 Non-farm Wage & Salary Employment Growth Rochester MSA
Source: ROPD from Minnesota Department of Economic Security
65,700
90,175
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Olmsted 1990, 2000, & Projected Employment
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Health
Construction
Finance, insurance, and realestate Transportation warehousing &utilitiesLodging & restaurants
Information
Other
Business
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Government and governmententerprises Manufacturing
Mining
Ag. services, forestry, fishing,& other 3/ Farm employment
Source: ROPD
Why it will be harder to continue this type of growth
• Aging baby boom has reduced the rate of home-grown labor force growth
• Aging baby boom puts most growth in age groups resistant to migration.
• Recent sources of labor force growth have been exhausted (increased female labor force participation, workers leaving the farm, increased commuting, etc.)
Aging baby boom
1990 Population Pyramid Olmsted County
-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Ag
e G
rou
p
Number of Persons
Female
Male
1990 Population by Age and Sex
2000 Population by Age and Sex
-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
36-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Ag
e G
rou
p
Number of Persons
female male
Aging baby boom
Distribution of Population Change by AgeOlmsted County 1990-2000
Aging baby boom
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Population Change by Age & Source1990 - 2000
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0-4 5-9 10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
survival/birthsnet migrationnet population change
Positive net migration helped to offset losses in early labor force population.
Distribution of Population Change by AgeOlmsted County 2000-2030
Aging baby boom
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Distribution of Population Change by AgeOlmsted County 2000-2030
Aging baby boom
4,737
1,550
4,927
21,098
13,287
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+
Olmsted County Projected Population Change by Age 2000-2030
1,7502,022
9651,161
389
2,0031,754
527 643
2,5432,786
3,479
4,479
5,9855,786
3,841
2,406
2,080
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0-4 5-9 10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
+18,200 workers
Why it will be harder to continue this type of growth
• Olmsted County will experience a 20% growth in its labor force age groups (according to State Demographer forecasts based on historic share of statewide net migration)
• versus a 41% growth in employment (based on growth not constrained by labor force availability).
Labor Force & Employment by Age & SexOlmsted County 2000 Census
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
16-19 20-21 22-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-61 62-64 65-69 70-74 75 & up
male in labor forcemale employedfemale in labor forcefemale employed
Unless there are politically difficult changes, such as raising the
retirement age, there will be twice as many retirees as there are today.
And there will be perhaps only 18 percent more workers to pay for the
retirees -- unless there is a much higher rate of immigration, which
would involve its own political difficulties.
George WillPB 1/04/2004
Olmsted County Population Change by Race – 1990 to 2000
Olmsted County Population Percent Population Percent Population Percent
One RaceWhite 101,880 95.7% 112,255 90.3% 10,375 10.2%Black 788 0.7% 3,330 2.7% 2,542 322.6%American Indian, Eskimo 295 0.3% 317 0.3% 22 7.5%Asian 3,237 3.0% 5,305 4.3% 2,068 63.9%Pacific Islander 41 0.0% 41Other Race 270 0.3% 1,148 0.9% 878 325.2%Two or more Races 1,881 1.5% 1,881
Total 106,470 100.0% 124,277 100.0% 17,807 16.7%
Hispanic or Latino 970 0.9% 2,959 2.4% 1,989 205.1%
1990 Census 2000 Census Change 90-00
1990 numbers adjusted to control total of 106,470.
Source: ROPD from 2000 Census
Sources of Population ChangeOlmsted County 1990-2000
Calculated based on Census and Minnesota State Health records.“Other” excludes Hispanic Whites, who are included as White.
Source Total White Other %Otherbirths 17,785 16,015 1,768 9.9%deaths 7,048 6,817 230 3.3%natural increase 10,737 9,198 1,538 14.3%net migration 7,070 1,177 5,894 83.4%total 17,807 10,375 7,432 41.7%
1990 – 2000 Olmsted County Under 19 Population by Race
1990 2000
White Other White Other
Under 5 years 8,583 577 7,355 1,535
5 to 9 years 8,239 602 7,770 1,258
10 to 14 years 7,074 428 8,682 1,143
15 to 19 years 6,432 402 7,775 1,074
Total 0-19 30,328 2,009 31,582 5,010
1990 – 2000 Under 19 Population % Change by Race
White Other
Under 5 years -14% 166%
5 to 9 years -6% 109%
10 to 14 years 23% 167%
15 to 19 years 21% 167%
Total 0-19 4% 149%
Enrollment & Estimated Olmsted County 5-19 Household Population
2003-2004 enrollment from GED 0304 (CFL)
ISD 535 &c other total2003 5-19 hh pop
total 16,470 5,681 22,151 28,434black 1,623 47 1,670 2,203Asian/Pacific Is. 1,393 53 1,446 1,808Hispanic 770 71 841 1,048Native American 59 12 71 88White (NH) 12,625 5,498 18,123 23,464
5-19 Household Population by Race Olmsted County 2000-2003
Race2003
Estimate2000
Census Changetotal 28,434 27,551 883black 2,203 1,500 703Asian/Pacific Is. 1,808 1,784 24Hispanic 1,048 647 401Native American 88 72 16White (NH) 23,464 23,722 -258
Estimated from public school enrollment in 5 school districts in Olmsted County.
Estimated Change in Population by Race 2000-2003
Estimated Population by Race - 2003 % Change from 20002003 total pop Rochester Olmsted Rochester Olmstedblack 6,462 7,165 63% 61%Asian/Pacific Is. 6,022 6,442 13% 8%Hispanic 3,768 4,028 47% 36%Native American 313 383 21% 21%White (NH) 76,470 113,910 4% 3%
Total 93,036 131,928 8% 6%
Demographic Challenges for the Next 30 Years
• Aging and retirement of the baby boom• Slow growth or decline of surrounding
commuter counties• Increased reliance on in-migration to
fill jobs• Assimilation and training of immigrants• Education and training of our future
work force
