Demography and Social Sector Planning

POPULATION AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

Prof. Carmeli Marie ChavesUP School of Urban and Regional Planning

Special Training Course on Urban and Regional Planning for Tarlac ProvincePhase 1, September 22-24, 2010

Characterizing the Local Population

OBJECTIVES OF THE SESSIONTo provide participants with an understanding of the role of population as a planning variable;To introduce measures of population composition, population size and growth, and population distribution;To orient the participants on the basic population projection models and techniques;To present selected standards in social sector planning (education, health, protective services, recreation, housing);To demonstrate the application of these standards, tools and techniques in social needs assessment;To enable the participants to formulate social development goals, objectives, programs and projects relevant to their planning area/LGU.

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INTRODUCTION

Population as a planning variable as a consumer/user as a producer Population projection as an essential planning skill

Population is related to development.

Social development planning is essential in improving livability.PopulationEducationHealthProtective ServicesRecreationHousing

Social development planning in the context of MTPDP and UN Millennium Development Goals *

The Millennium Development GoalsRefer to handout*

Part One


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Sources of population data:Census of Population (every 10 years)Vital registration system (Local Civil Registry)National Statistics OfficeLGU counts

Population size (or population level) total number of the members of a populationPopulation composition (or population structure) characteristics of a population for a particular period, e.g., age-sex compositionPopulation growth a change in population size over two points in time as a result of births, deaths, in-migration and out-migrationPopulation distribution spatial distribution or location of the members of a population

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*A. POPULATION SIZE

(2007) 88,574,614

(2000) 76,504,077 2000-2007 PGR 2.04%

(2010 est.) 94,013,200

B. POPULATION STRUCTURE

Median age the age that divides a population into equal halves

(2007) 22.7 years

The Philippine population has a median age of 22.7 years, slightly higher than the 21 median age in 2000. This means that half of the population is below 22.7 years old.*

Sex Ratio - the ratio between the total number of men and the total number of women

total no. of men total no. of women*x 100

Table 1. Total Population by Age Group, Sex and Sex Ratio Philippines: 2000*Source: NSO, 2000 Census of Population and Housing

Age GroupTotal PopulationMaleFemaleSex RatioPhilippines76,504,07738,524,26737,979,810101.43Under 11,917,431986,506930,925105.971 to 47,752,0713,965,4263,786,645104.725 to 99,694,7814,962,0134,732,768104.8410 to 148,949,6144,541,1974,408,417103.0115 to 198,017,2984,017,8303,999,468100.4620 to 247,069,4033,522,5183,546,88599.3125 to 296,071,0893,053,6163,017,473101.2030 to 345,546,2942,804,5222,741,772102.2935 to 394,901,0232,496,8212,404,202103.8540 to 444,163,4942,120,3142,043,180103.7845 to 493,330,0541,696,7121,633,342103.8850 to 542,622,3161,318,6321,303,684101.1555 to 591,903,649943,133960,51698.1960 to 641,633,150786,137847,01392.8165 to 691,138,843533,469605,37488.1270 to 74797,970361,614436,35682.8775 to 79505,356218,622286,73476.2580 and over490,241195,185295,05666.15


Philippines: Sex ratio is 101.43

Of the total population in 2000, about 38.5 M (50.36%,)were males while 38.0 M (49.64%) were females. Males outnumbered females with a sex ratio of 101.43 males for every 100 females. There were more males than females in the age groups 0-19 and 25-54 years. Females dominated in the rest of the age groups. *


Tarlac Province Sex Ratio*


Age-sex distribution: the population pyramid

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Age structure of Philippine population (Fig 3)

Typical broad base at the bottom consisting of large numbers of children and a narrow top made up of relatively small number of elderly.

Young dependents belonging to age group 0-14 comprised 37.01%.

The old dependents (65 + ) accounted for 3.83%, while 59.16% comprised the economically active population (15 - 64). *


Tarlac Province Population Pyramid*


Addressing the needs of particular age groups:

Health care important for individuals below 15 years old, women of childbearing ages (15-49), and the elderlyEducation demand is highest from age 5 20, then declines thereafterFood demand is highest among young age groups, especially teenagersEmployment demand is highest among the working age population (15-64)Housing demand peaks at ages when people start living independently or start their own families *

*Time Relationship Between a Birth and Future Service Requirements


Dependency Ratio

= Total no. of young dependents + total no. of old dependents working age population= P0-14 + P65+ P15-64

Young Dependents Ages 0-14 Old Dependents Age 65 + Working Population Ages 15-64

Indicates how many people are potentially working to support those who are too young and too old to work.Doesnt take into account those who are of working age but are unemployed or still studying or those who are of dependent age but are working.2000 Philippine dependency ratio 69.04Every 100 persons in the working age group (15-64) had to support about 63 young dependents and about six old dependents. *x 100

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C. POPULATION GROWTH

Sources of population change 1. fertility 2. mortality 3. migration


*Popn of the Phils, Census Years 1799 to 2007

YearPopulationAverage annual rate of increase (%)Source of data17991,502,574-Fr. Buzeta18001,561,2513.91Fr. Zuniga18121,933,3311.80Cedulas18192,106,2301.23Cedulas18292,593,2872.10Church18403,096,0311.62Local officials18503,857,4242.22Fr. Buzeta18584,290,3811.34Bowring18704,712,0060.78Guia de Manila18775,567,6852.41Census18875,984,7270.72Census18966,261,3390.50Prof. Plehn's estimate based on census records.19037,635,4262.87Census191810,314,3102.03Census193916,000,3032.11Census194819,234,1822.07Census196027,087,6852.89Census197036,684,4863.08Census197542,070,6602.78Census198048,098,4602.71Census199060,703,2062.35Census199568,616,5362.32Census200076,504,0772.36Census200788,574,614 2.04Census


Computing growth rates

Projecting population size using growth models Arithmetic Geometric Exponential

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Arithmetic / Linear

P0+n= P(0) + mn

where:n= no. of years between 0 and 0+nP(0+n)= population to be forecast at time 0+n (the projection year)P(0) = population at time 0 (the base year)m = gradient

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*Fig 2 Perfect Linear TrendArithmetic / Linear MethodExample:

Year Population 1951100 0001961110 0001971120 0001981130 0001991?


2. Geometric Method Pt= P0 (1+r)t r= ln (Pt /P0) twhere:Pt= projected pop. for a certain yearP0= base yearr= rate of growth t= time interval between the base and projected years*

Geometric Method (Example):

Given:P200076 498 735P199568 616 536

r= ln (Pt /P0) t= ln (76,498,735 / 68,616,536) 5r = 0.0217

Pt= P0 (1+r)tP2010= P2000 (1+ 0.0217)10P2010= 76 498 735 (1.0217)10P2010= 94 817 431*


3. Exponential MethodPt= P0 ertr = [ log (Pt /P0) ] t log ewhere:Pt= projected population for a certain yearP0= base yeare = constant (the e of 1 is 2.71828)r= rate of growtht= time interval between the base and projected years

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*Fig 1 Exponential Trend


Exponential Method (Example):

Given:P200076 498 735P199568 616 536

r= [ log (Pt /P0) ] t log e = [ log (76,498,735 / 68,616,536 ) ]5 log e= .047225464 2.011679619= .0234 or 2.34%

Pt= P0 ertP2010= P2000 e .0234 (10)P2010= 76 498 735 e .234 P2010= 96 667 190*


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Projecting population size using the component method Pt= P0 + B D + IM OM

where: Pt = population at a given period (projected population)P0= population at the base year (base pop) B = number of births D = number of deaths IM= in-migration OM = out-migration *

Projecting population size using cohort survival technique

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Doubling Time of Various Rates of Growth

Doubling time = 0.69 r

Philippines: Population to double in 29 years

(at 2.36% PGR)*Population Doubling Timethe number of years it takes for a population to double

Rates of Growth (%)Doubling Time (years)0.5123413869352317


D. COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

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FERTILITY

Crude birth rate= no. of births midyear total populationAge-specific fertility rate = births in a specific age group of women population of women in that age groupTotal fertility rate = the no. of births a woman is expected to have through her entire child bearing period, subject to prevailing ASFRs

Gross reproduction rate = total fertility rate that includes only female birthsNet reproduction rate = number of female births that will be born, given age specific fertility rates and taking into account some women giving these births might not complete their child-bearing because of maternal deaths

*x 1000

MORTALITY

Crude death rate= no. of deaths midyear total pop.

Infant mortality rate = no. of infant deaths no. of live births

Below 5 mortality rate = no. of deaths among 1-5 y.o. population population 1-5 y.o.Maternal mortality rate = no. of maternal deaths no. of births

*x 1000x 1000x 1000x 100,000

MIGRATION

- permanent change of residence that requires crossing an administrative boundary from place of origin to place of destination

Rate of migration (assumed) = PGR of municipality/city/province national PGR

Tarlac Province 2.11 %Philippines 2.04(in) migration (0.07) %

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Source: NSO, 2007 Census of Population*Table 3. Population Distribution by Region: 2007

RegionTotal PopulationPercentPhilippines88,574,614100.00NCR 11,553,42713.04CAR 1,520,7431.72I Ilocos4,545,9065.13II - Cagayan Valley3,051,4873.44III - Central Luzon9,720,98210.97 IV A - Calabarzon11,743,11013.26IV B - Mimaropa2,559,7912.89V Bicol5,109,7985.77VI - Western Visayas6,843,6437.73VII - Central Visayas6,398,6287.22VIII - Eastern Visayas3,912,9364.42IX - Western Mindanao3,230,0943.65X - Northern Mindanao3,952,4374.46XI - Southern Mindanao4,156,6534.69XII - Central Mindanao3,829,0814.32XIII - Caraga2,293,4802.59ARMM4,120,7954.65


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Population Density

Gross population density No. of persons unit of land area (hectare or sq km)

-crude since not all lands in municipality are liveable

Net population density No. of persons unit of alienable and disposable land

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F. POVERTY ANALYSIS*Table 4. Poverty Incidence, Philippines: 1997-2009

*Poverty Threshold, Poverty Incidence and Magnitude, by Region: 2000-2006

Distribution of Poor and Non-poor, by Urban-Rural Areas*Source: 2006 FIES, Asian Development Bank

Ranking of Poorest Provinces*

*Characteristics of the PoorMajority live in rural areas and work in the agriculture sectorIn urban areas, they are found in slums and informal sectorThey have large familiesIn 2/3 of poor families, household head attained elementary education or belowHave no or few assets and minimal access to creditSource: Asian Development Bank

Part Two

ANALYZING AND PROJECTING REQUIREMENTS of the SOCIAL SECTOR


*EDUCATIONHEALTHPROTECTIVE SERVICESRECREATIONHOUSING


A. EDUCATIONStandard classroom-student ratio1:50Current classroom reqt = (current enrolment x standard classroom-student ratio) (current no. of classroom dilapidated / damaged classroom)*Current classroom reqt= (4 552 x 1/50) (118)= 91.04 118= -26.96 or -27 Current classroom-student ratio1:39Padre Garcia, Batangas

2010 Current enrolment for all elementary schools2010 Current no. of classroomsCurrent classroom reqt4 552118?


EDUCATION (cont)Projected 2015 classroom reqt for elementary = (projected 2015 enrolment x standard classroom-student ratio) (current no. of classroom)*Projected 2015 classroom requirement for elementary = (6 513 x 1/50) (118)= 130.26 118= 12.26 or 12 more classrooms needed by 2015Padre Garcia, Batangas

2015 Projected enrolment for all elementary schools2010 Current no. of classroomsProjected classroom reqt for 20156 513118?


EDUCATION (cont)Current teacher reqt = (current enrolment x standard teacher-student ratio) (current no. of teachers)*Padre Garcia, BatangasCurrent teacher reqt = (4 552 x 1/50) (119)= 91.04 119= -27.96 or -28Current teacher-student ratio1:38

2010 Current enrolment for all elementary schools2010 Current no. of teachersCurrent teacher reqt4 552119?

Level Standard teacherstudent ratioKindergarten1:30Primary1:50 (1:52 private)Secondary1:50Tertiary 1:50


Projected teacher reqt = (projected enrolment x standard teacher-student ratio) (current no. of teachers)*Padre Garcia, Batangasprojected teacher reqt = (6 513 x 1/50) (119) = 130.26 119 = 11 more teachers required for 2015EDUCATION (cont)

2015 Projected enrolment for all elementary schools2010 Current no. of teachersProjected 2015 teacher reqt6 513119?


Site requirements:1. Pre-School (Kindergarten Level)a. Minimum lot area: 500m2140m2 = classroom(if < 4 classes)360m2 = playgroundb. Provide playground, OR alternative playground site 200m safe access from school sitec. Class size: 25 30 children = 1 teacher 30 40 children = 1 teacher + teachers aided. Classroom size:1.5m2 = 1 childe. 1 toilet = 25 childrenf. For 7m x 9m classroom = 2 fluorescent lamps + 1 wide window + electric fans*EDUCATION (cont)

2. Elementary and Secondarya. Maximum distance: 3-km walk, OR 30 minutes by PUVb. >200m from places of ill-repute, recreational establishments of questionable character, manufacturing / industrial plants, military barracksc. Lot occupancy of school buildings, etc. < 40% of site*EDUCATION (cont)

Standard Sizes for School Sites (in hectares)a. Elementary*EDUCATION (cont)

1-2 classes and no Grade 4 above (rural school)0.5 6 classes (for central school), or 3 4 classes (for non-central school)17 9 classes210 12 classes3>12 classes4


Standard Sizes for School Sites (in hectares)*In case of difficulty in meeting the above standards, the ff. may be allowed:For rural areas:For urban areas:EDUCATION (cont)

6 classes (for central school), or 3 4 classes (for non-central school)0.55 10 classes1.5>10 classes3

6 10 classes0.511 20 classes0.75


Standard Sizes for School Sites (in hectares)b. Secondary Schools:*Rural (minimum):Urban (minimum):EDUCATION (cont)

12 sections0.513 25 sections126 50 sections1.551 75 sections2For every 25 sections > 75 sections0.5

Barangay 1General / trade3Agricultural for freshwater fishponds and / or for brackish water fishponds 322


Minimum Standards for Instructional and Administrative SpacesElementary:Classroom1.40m2 / pupilSchool shop 2.50m2 / pupilAdministrative office5m2 / placeLibrary2.40m2 / person(10% of total enrolment)Medical / dental clinic28m2Guidance room28m2 Corridorabove ground level,2m clear width*EDUCATION (cont)

Minimum Standards for Instructional and Administrative SpacesB.Secondary:Classroom1.40m2 / pupilScience lab2.10m2 / pupil

Shops:Practical arts / technology and economics2.50m2 / pupil Girls trade / homemaking2.50m2 / pupilWood trades5m2 / pupilMetal trades5m2 / pupilMechanical trades7m2 / pupilElectrical trades4m2 / pupilDrafting / drawing2.50m2 / pupilFarm mechanical5m2 / pupilFarm machinery6.50m2 / pupilFish capture / culture / preservation2.50m2 / pupil

*EDUCATION (cont)

Minimum Standards for Instructional and Administrative SpacesB.Secondary (cont):

Administrative spaces / services:Administrative office5m2 / placeMedical / dental clinic28m2Guidance room28m2 Library /2.40m2 / personLearning resources center(10% of total enrolment)Corridorabove ground level,2m clear width*EDUCATION (cont)

Minimum Standards for Instructional and Administrative SpacesC.Colleges and Universities:

500 students0.50 hectare (ha.)501 1,0001 ha.1,001 2,0002 has.2,001 3,0003 has.Same ratio for enrolment in excess of 3,0007,0007 has.For open space2.50m2 / personFor indoor facility0.90m2 / person

*EDUCATION (cont)

B. HEALTH

Hospital area requirement:CAPACITYAREA (beds)(has.)251.51001.52002.53003.5

Rural Health Unit Personnel Standards:Municipal health officer1: 20,000 popNurse 1: 20,000 popSanitary inspector1: 20,000 popMidwife1: 3,000 5,000 pop, depending on the terrain*


HEALTH (cont)

Accessibility parameters: (for proposed hospital sites) 35 kms away from existing govt hospital< 35 kms but >3hrs away by usual mode of travel< 35 kms away 25,000< 25,000*

Distance Pop35kms 25,000MunicipalExtension None< 25,000Extension RHU InfirmaryNone


Clinical Service Facilities*HEALTH (cont)

NOMENCLATURECLINICAL SERVICE FACILITYNO. OF BEDSBHS RHU SUBSYSTEMBarangay health stationPrimary NoneRHUPrimary NoneRHU InfirmaryPrimary 5 10HOSPITAL SUBSYSTEMExtension hospitalPrimary capability / secondary facility10Municipal hospitalSecondary 10 25District hospitalSecondary 25 75Provincial / general hospitalTertiary 100 250Regional Teaching - training300 500


Padre Garcia, Batangas*HEALTH (cont)

No. of personnel, 2010Standard ratioDemand for 2010 pop. 29 595Demand for 2015 pop.41 082Municipal health officer11:20,00012Nurse11:20,00012Sanitary inspector21:20,000 12Midwife81: 3,000 5,000 pop68


Social welfare services:

1 daycare center per barangayMin. area:2sqm per 3 children indoor1sqm per child outdoor

1 senior citizen care center per city/municipalityMin. area:500sqm*

C. PROTECTIVE SERVICES

1 PNP station per city / municipality1 Fire station per city / municipality or1 Fireman per 2000 population1 Jail per district / city / municipality1 Policeman per 500 population(for highly urbanized cities)1 Policeman per 1000 population

*

PROTECTIVE SERVICES (cont)*

TYPEPOP FOR CITIESPOP FOR MUNICIPALITIESLOT AREA (SQM) OF POLICE STATIONBLDG AREA (SQM) A100,000 & above75000 or more2,500972B75,000 to

PROTECTIVE SERVICES (cont)Establishment of fire station there shall be established at least 1 fire station with adequate personnel, firefighting facilities and equipments in every provincial capital, city and municipality

Establishment of jails there shall be established and maintained in every district, city and municipality a secured, clean, adequately equipped and sanitary jail*

Current police reqt = (Total demand for policemen) (actual no. of policemen)Total demand for policemen = population x standard ratio*Padre Garcia, BatangasTotal demand for policemen = 36 828 X 1/1000 = 37 policemenCurrent police reqt= 37 33= 4 more policemen needed for 2010

PROTECTIVE SERVICES (cont)

2010 Population2010 Actual no. of policemenCurrent police reqt36 82833?


Projected 2015 police force = (2015 population X standard ratio) (current no. of policemen)*Padre Garcia, BatangasProjected 2015 police force= (41 082 X 1/1000) - 33= 8 more policemen needed for 2015


2015 Population2010 Actual no. of policemenProjected 2015 police reqt41 08233?


Current firemen reqt = (population x standard ratio) (actual no. of firemen)*Padre Garcia, BatangasCurrent firemen reqt= (36 828 x 1/2000) 1 = 18.414 1= 17 more firemen neededPROTECTIVE SERVICES (cont)

2010 Population2010 Actual no. of firemenCurrent firemen reqt36 8281?


Projected 2015 firemen requirement = (2015 population x standard ratio) (current no. of firemen)*Padre Garcia, BatangasProjected 2015 firemen reqt = (41 082 X 1/2000) 1 = 20.54 1 = 19 more firemen needed for 2015


2015 Population2010 Actual no. of firemenProjected 2015 fireman reqt41 0821?


D. SPORTS AND RECREATION

*500m2 park per 1000 population0.50 has. athletic field per 1000 population

Padre Garcia, Batangas: park area required = 36 828 current pop. x 500m2 1000 pop.

park area required= 36 828 X 500 1000 = 18 414 m2

HOUSING*

Table 16. Summary of Shelter Needs City / Municipality of _________20__

*HOUSING

HOUSING NEEDSPRESENT NEEDS(2010)FUTURE NEEDSTOTAL201120122013201420152016A. DUE TO BACKLOG 1. Doubled-up Household 2. Displaced Units 3. Homeless

B. DUE TO FORMATION OF NEW HOUSEHOLDS

C. UPGRADING 1. Tenure 2. Infrastructure 3. StructuralTOTAL


Housing Backlog. Number of dwelling units needed at the beginning of the planning period due to doubled-up households, displaced units and homeless

Doubled-Up Household. Exists when one dwelling unit is shared by 2 or more households Displaced Units (Relocation Need). New housing units needed to replace those occupied by households located in dangerous and uninhabitable areas or those living on land which is needed by the government for a major infrastructure project or in areas where there is a court order for eviction and demolition

Homeless. Individuals or households living in parks, along sidewalks, and all those without any form of shelter*HOUSING (cont)


Upgrading Need. The need for improving land tenure status e.g. provision of minimum security of tenure as a written contract to possessing a title of land; access to basic services e.g. dirt road to macadam road; and house condition, e.g. from semi-permanent to permanent structure

Tenure Need. Households living in units with inadequate security of tenure on the land they occupy i.e. no legal title or any other written contract on land

Infrastructure Improvement. Households living in units that lack access to one or more basic services such as water supply, sanitation, drainage, road access, garbage disposal and electricity

Structural Improvement Need. Households living in units that require improvement of structure to minimum acceptable level

*HOUSING (cont)


*DESIGNSTANDARDS

Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board

HOUSING (cont)


*HOUSING (cont)


*


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