Demography

Black-throated Blue Warbler• Overwinter survival and fecundity on

breeding grounds (NE US) lower in El Nino years compared to La Nina (Sillet et

al. 2000)

Elevational range expanders • Experienced higher nest predation rates

in areas expanded into than vegetation types they used more often (Martin. 2001)

Phenology

Phenology

North American red squirrels• Respond to inc. food abundance• 6 d advance/generation• Early breeders more successful

(Reale et al. 2003)

American Robins • Arrive 14 d earlier in 20 yr period• Interval between date of arrival and first

bare ground increased 18 d (Inouye et al. 2000)

Phenology

Tree Swallows• Laying dates on average 9 days earlier (Dunn and Winkler 1999)

Yellow-bellied marmots • Emerging from hibernation 38 d earlier in 23

years period (Inouye et al. 2000)

Meta-analysis of phenology research showed a shift of 2.3 days/decade in spring migrant arrival

• (Parmesan and Yohe 2003)

Community composition and interactions

High levels of species turnover and differential rates/abilities for range expansion will lead to new natural communities w/ unique and unknown properties

• (Peterson et al 2002)

Phenology: migratory animals

• What cues do migrants use to begin movements?

• What happens if they are late or early?

Conditions trigger laying

Peak Energy demand (young in nest)

Peak food availability

Time

Match

Conditions trigger laying

Peak Energy demand (young in nest)

Peak food availability

Time

Mismatch

Climate Change

Figure1. Conceptual diagram of match mismatch between timing of egg laying and conditions when food demand is highest. (Adapted from Stenseth and Mysterud 2002).

Match-mismatches:

Different phenological responses to climate change can lead to disruption of intricately timed interactions between species.

i.e.: pred-prey, plant-pollinator

Primary productivity

• ↑ temperature and atm CO2

• Fertilizing effect enhancing photosynthesis

• Species have varied responses

• Increased growth balanced with limits– in soil nutrients and water

– CO2 uptake

• Effects of ↑ ozone?

Less ice

Changes in habitat and food availability

Polar bears• Tied to sea ice for hunting,

breeding, denningCollared lemming• Nests between tundra and

snowCaribou• More freezing rain, more

insects• Human reliance on

subsistence hunting

Competition:Penguins

Adelie penguins• Feed on krill• Rely on sea ice to find krill• DecreasingChinstrap penguins• Feed on large krill

and fish• Don’t rely on sea ice• Increasing and

replacing Adelies in colonies

Climate change into the futureWhat’s going to happen?• Definitely have warming• ScenariosWhat can we do?• Voluntary reductions (EPA)• EPA suggests

– Energy star products– Reduce reuse recycle– Use alternative transportation

• Examine your carbon footprint• Pressure• Carbon Sequestration• Translocations? Role of nurseries?