© 2010 PREPARED The European Commission is funding the Collaborative project ‘PREPARED Enabling Change’ (PREPARED) within the context of the Seventh Framework Programme 'Environment'.All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a database or retrieval system, or published, in any form or in any way, electronically, mechanically, by print, photoprint, microfilm or any other means without prior written permission from the publisher
Demonstration of the
WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon
COLOPHON
Title
Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in
Lisbon.
Report number
PREPARED 2013.023
Deliverable number
D1.4.2
Author(s)
Maria Adriana Cardoso, Maria do Céu Almeida, Paula Vieira, Ana Luís, Basílio Martins, José Martins, Conceição David, Maria João Telhado, Sofia Baltazar,
Fernando Fernandes, Rita Alves, Vanessa Martins, Paula Aprisco, Alexandre
Rodrigues
Quality Assurance
Rafaela Matos
Acknowledgments
Vítor Martins, Cecília Alexandre, Maria José Franco, Luís Simas, Maria Emília
Castela, José Gato, Pedro Botelho, José Sá Fernandes, Lília Azevedo, Célia Reis, Pedro Póvoa, António Frazão.
This report is:
R = Restricted
Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.
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Summary
In the scope of WA1 and WA2 of PREPARED Project, testing of the proposed
Water Cycle Safety Plan Framework developed by Almeida et al. (2010)
(D.2.1.1) was carried out as a demonstration in the city of Lisbon, Portugal.
The demonstration started from the whole urban area relevant to Lisbon and
was detailed to the Alcântara catchment, the largest catchment in Lisbon.
This report describes the implementation process, detailing the work for the
integrated level, and giving a summary of developments at system level. Examples of the results obtained are presented to illustrate the application.
The initial proposed methodology was followed and those steps where
implementation difficulties were identified contributed to improve the
proposed framework resulting in the final framework described in Almeida et
al. (2013d).
Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.
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Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.
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Contents
1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 8
2 Case study description ................................................................................. 10
2.1 Lisbon demonstration city ........................................................................................................ 10
2.2 Alcântara catchment................................................................................................................... 13 2.2.1 Relevance and general description 13 2.2.2 Water supply system description 14 2.2.3 Sewer system description 16
3 Implementation of the WCSP at the integrated level ................................. 26
3.1 WCSP 1. Commitment and establishment of water cycle safety policy and scope... 26 3.1.1 Project team 26 3.1.2 Participant stakeholders description 28 3.1.3 Team coordinator 30 3.1.4 Team modus operandi 31 3.1.5 Scope of WCSP 33 3.1.6 Time frame to develop the WCSP 33 3.1.7 Formal requirements 34 3.1.8 Water cycle safety policy 36 3.1.9 Criteria for subsequent risk analysis 36
3.2 WCSP 2. Urban water cycle characterisation .................................................................... 37 3.2.1 Water cycle description and flow diagram 37
3.3 WCSP 3. Preliminary risk identification in the water cycle ........................................... 38 3.3.1 Supporting tools 38 3.3.2 Relevant hazards 39 3.3.3 Potential events, risk sources and risk factors 40
3.4 WCSP 4. Preliminary risk analysis and evaluation in the water cycle......................... 43 3.4.1 Supporting tools 43 3.4.2 Likelihood and consequences for each event 44 3.4.3 Level of risk and risk evaluation for each event 46
3.5 WCSP 5. Development of system safety plans (SSP) ....................................................... 47
3.6 WCSP 6. Integrated risk analysis and evaluation............................................................. 47
3.7 WCSP 7. Integrated risk treatment ...................................................................................... 47 3.7.1 Supporting tools 47 3.7.2 Risk reduction measures 48 3.7.3 Comparison, prioritization and selection of risk reduction measures, risk treatment
program and assessment of residual risk 50
3.8 WCSP 8. Management and communication programs and protocols WCSP 9. Monitoring and review.............................................................................................................. 50
4 Achievements and lessons learned ............................................................ 54
References .................................................................................................................... 56
Annex 1 Characterization of the example events from Table 7 ........................... 58
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List of figures
Figure 1 – Lisbon demonstration city location ..................................................................... 10
Figure 2 – Lisbon urban area and water systems................................................................. 11
Figure 3 – Lisbon demonstration city ..................................................................................... 11
Figure 4 – Changes in precipitation ........................................................................................ 12
Figure 5 – Examples of rainfall related problems in Lisbon .............................................. 12
Figure 6 – Alcântara catchment in Lisbon ............................................................................. 14
Figure 7 – Lisbon water supply system ................................................................................. 15
Figure 8 – Alcântara water supply system and DMAs....................................................... 15
Figure 9 – Alcântara stormwater and wastewater system ................................................. 16
Figure 10 – Alcântara original hydrologic model ................................................................ 17
Figure 11 – Alcântara wetlands system ................................................................................. 18
Figure 12 – Types of cross-sections ......................................................................................... 19
Figure 13 – Oval cross section .................................................................................................. 19
Figure 14 – Rectangular and inverted U cross section ........................................................ 19
Figure 15 – Cross-handle arch and rectangular cross section shapes.............................. 20
Figure 16 – Caneiro de Alcântara ............................................................................................ 21
Figure 17 – Cross section of caneiro de Alcântara ............................................................... 21
Figure 18 – Confluence of the two branches of caneiro de Alcântara ............................. 22
Figure 19 – Areas of the Alcântara subsystem ..................................................................... 23
Figure 20 – Alcântara WWTP ................................................................................................... 24
Figure 21 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk events location ................................... 31
Figure 22 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk events characterisation .................... 32
Figure 23 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk reduction measures location .......... 33
Figure 24 – Water systems for the Lisbon - Alcântara demonstration case ................... 37
Figure 25 – Water cycle flow diagram .................................................................................... 38
Figure 26 – Tools developed to support the application of the WCSP framework
(Almeida et al., 2013a) .............................................................................................. 39
Figure 27 – Vulnerability to flooding in Lisbon ................................................................... 42
Figure 28 – Direct tidal effect in Lisbon ................................................................................. 42
Figure 29 – Risk identification and evaluation - risk events location .............................. 43
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List of tables
Table 1 – WC level team composition .................................................................................... 27
Table 2 –Meetings for the development of the WCSP ........................................................ 31
Table 3 – Timeframe for developing WCSP at integrated level........................................ 34
Table 4 – Discharge requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP .......... 35
Table 5 – Requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP for reuse in
washing ....................................................................................................................... 35
Table 6 – Requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP for reuse in
irrigation ..................................................................................................................... 36
Table 7 – Examples of the events and related hazards, risk sources and risk factors
identified for Alcântara............................................................................................ 41
Table 8 – Examples of likelihood and consequence classification for the Alcântara
events ........................................................................................................................... 45
Table 9 – Examples of risk class for the Alcântara events.................................................. 46
Table 10 – Examples of risk reduction measures identified for Alcântara ..................... 49
Acronyms
DMA Demand management areas
ERP Emergency response plan
RMF Risk management framework
RMP Risk management process
RRM Risk reduction measure
SOP Standard operating procedures
SSP System safety plan
RIDB Risk identification database
RRDB Risk reduction database
WCSP Water cycle safety plan
WSP Water safety plan
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1 Introduction
Potential effects of climate dynamics on the urban water cycle can involve the
aggravation of existing conditions as well as the occurrence of new hazards or
risk factors. The challenges created by climate changes require an integrated
approach for dealing with existing and expected levels of risk. Given the interactions of urban water and natural systems, adaptation measures should
address all water cycle components and their interactions (Almeida et al.,
2013a).
The Urban Water Cycle (UWC) often involves several stakeholders dealing with specific systems of the cycle such as water supply, wastewater and
stormwater systems and water bodies. Therefore, risk management in the
UWC can be beneficial allowing an integrated approach to incorporate the
interdependencies between systems.
The application of the initial WCSP framework described in deliverable D.2.1.1 (Almeida et al., 2010) to the cities allowed a validation of the
methodology itself as well as of the tools developed within PREPARED to
support the application (e.g., risk identification database, risk reduction
database). The initial framework was followed and during the implementation process some opportunities for improvement of the initial
WCSP framework were identified, resulting in the final framework described
in deliverable D.2.1.4 (Almeida et al., 2013a).
This report describes the implementation process, detailing the work for the
integrated level, and giving a summary of developments at system level. Examples of the results obtained are presented to illustrate the application.
The demonstration started from the whole urban area relevant to Lisbon and
was detailed to the Alcântara catchment, the largest catchment in Lisbon.
Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.
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2 Case study description
2.1 Lisbon demonstration city
The proposed Water Cycle Safety Plan (WCSP) framework was applied to the
demonstration city of Lisbon (Figure 1), for testing and validation of the
framework as well as of the tools developed to facilitate implementation of WCSP.
The demonstration started from the whole urban area relevant to Lisbon and
was detailed to the Alcântara catchment, the largest catchment in Lisbon.
Figure 1 – Lisbon demonstration city location
Lisbon is a historic major European harbour city with a rich built heritage. It
is the administrative capital of Portugal, seat of most national political
institutions and major administration bodies, and an important centre for
business and services, of national and international relevance.
The city of Lisbon has around 550 000 inhabitants (2011), occupying an area of about 85 km2, a population density around 6500 inhabitants/km2 (Figure 2).
Lisbon municipality has administrative boundaries with three other
municipalities and a densely occupied riverfront with 19 km long, facing the
estuary, approximately 5 NM from open sea as presented in Figure 3
(Telhado et al., 2014).
Lisbon city is located along the northern side of the Tagus river mouth. The
Tagus estuary is one of the largest in Europe and is exposed to receiving
several urban and agricultural pollutant loads. The river Tagus is an
international river, being a large part of the catchment in Spain, and has several dams that allowed controlling floods in an effective way.
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Figure 2 – Lisbon urban area and water systems
Image source: http://www.visitlisboa.com/SubToolBar/FOTOS/Lisboa-Zona-Ribeirinha.aspx
Figure 3 – Lisbon demonstration city
Lisbon has a temperate climate, classified as Mediterranean climate, and is
characterised by dry and hot summers and wet and fresh winter periods.
The climate change trends are average air temperature increase, decrease of
annual and non-wet season rainfall, increase of wet-season rainfall and of
frequency of intense rainfall events (Figure 4), average sea level rise, and
increase of frequency of coastal floods.
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Relative change in the seasonal precipitation amounts in Winter (DJF) (Dankers & Hiederer, 2008)
Observed changes in annual precipitation 1961-2006 (mm per decade) (ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org), ECA&D
(http://eca.knmi.nl))
Figure 4 – Changes in precipitation
Lisbon main issues (Figure 5) and challenges related with climate change are
the following:
Increase of runoff flows and associated risks;
Flooding and overflows resulting from limited hydraulic capacity of the
sewer network;
Meteorological droughts that can severely impact drinking water
consumption;
Water quality deterioration in natural water bodies especially relevant for
recreational uses resulting from sewer systems wet weather overflows
and dry weather permanent discharges;
Impacts on WWTP from I/I increase reducing treatment efficiency.
Figure 5 – Examples of rainfall related problems in Lisbon
Lisbon sewer system is very complex. It includes combined, separate and partially separate sewers, dendritic and looped sewer networks, and sewers
of very different ages, dimensions and materials.
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The water level in the Tagus estuary receiving waters is dominated by the ocean tide. During high tide, the downstream restrictions to flows in sewer
networks increase the risks of flooding at the lower Lisbon areas, during rain
events. This is also important since some urban areas in the Lisbon centre
have elevations of just 0.20 m above the maximum high tide.
On the other hand, as the Tagus estuary is intensively used all over the year for recreational activities, such as sailing, water quality is a crucial issue,
namely in terms of pathogenic concentrations and aesthetics.
2.2 Alcântara catchment
2.2.1 Relevance and general description
The implementation of WCSP at the integrated level in Lisbon was detailed to
the Alcântara catchment (Figure 6) with a total area of 6 300 ha, being 4 802 ha
within the Lisbon municipality, which corresponds to circa half of Lisbon’s
area.
The relevance of this area as case study is due to its wide range of interconnected systems, stakeholders and the vulnerability to extreme climate
events, as part of the urban area corresponding to an ancient riverbed.
Moreover, the proximity to the Tagus River and the fact of being the site for
the largest Wastewater Treatment Plant are reasons for this implementation.
The Alcântara catchment is integrated in the complex hydrographic network
of the municipality of Lisbon, being one of the most important watersheds
that flow into the Tagus River in the city of Lisbon. To this catchment flows
the rainwater drained by a part of the Municipality of Amadora (west side of
Lisbon) and also inside Lisbon, the neighbourhoods of Benfica, S. Domingos de Benfica, Carnide, Nossa Senhora de Fátima, Santo Condestável, Prazeres
and Alcântara.
Currently, with rare exceptions, natural streams in the Lisbon municipality
are not visible today. Constraints imposed by urbanization and the
consequent need for a structured stormwater and wastewater drainage led to changes in the paths, underground channelization or to landfill of some
streams that over time were still persisting.
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Figure 6 – Alcântara catchment in Lisbon
2.2.2 Water supply system description
About 90 per cent of the supply comes from the Castelo do Bode dam, owned
by EDP (the Portuguese Company of Electricity). Within this sub-system,
water is treated at Asseiceira WTP, following a scheme comprising pre-
chlorination, mineralization, coagulation/flocculation, flotation, oxidation (ozone), filtration, pH adjustment and final disinfection (chlorine) (Figure 7).
This WTP, built in 1987 with a capacity to treat 500 000 m3/day, was recently
enlarged to treat 625 000 m3/day, along with the introduction of flotation and
ozone into the treatment process (Luís et al., 2014).
The second largest water source is the river Tagus, with abstraction
undertaken at Valada Tagus (Figure 7). This water is pumped to Vale da
Pedra WTP, which has a nominal capacity of 240 000 m3/day.
The remaining water sources are Olhos de Água (since 1880), a spring from
limestone hills; Ota and Alenquer, also located on a limestone massif but the water being extracted from wells; Valadas and Lezírias, where the water is
abstracted from aquifers, the latter being the largest aquifer in the Iberic
Península (Tagus-Sado aquifer). All water sources are located in the Tagus
river basin.
Each day EPAL supplies 650 million litres of drinking water from the sources to the customers’ taps, through more than 2 100 kilometres of water mains, 43
pumping stations, 24 water tanks, 14 service reservoirs and about 80 000
service connections. The Alcântara water system is part of this global system
and the studied DMA are presented in Figure 8.
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Figure 7 – Lisbon water supply system
Figure 8 – Alcântara water supply system and DMAs
Castelo Bode reservoir
Valada abstraction
Asseiceira WTP
LISBON WATER
SUPPLY SYSTEM
Lisbon distribution network
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2.2.3 Sewer system description
The Alcântara stormwater and wastewater systems serve an area of 6 300ha, a
population of 756 000 inhabitants, through a complex network having a total
length of about 774 km and an average sewer age of about 60 years. The study
area includes eleven sub-catchments in the west part of the city, connected to the interceptor system of the Alcântara WWTP (Figure 9) and is therefore
designated by Alcântara system (Telhado et al., 2014).
The stormwater system drains an area of about 4802 ha. Excluding the
Monsanto Forest Park, there is a high urban settlement with a significant level
of impervious area. In average the runoff coefficient is of 0.67.
Figure 9 – Alcântara stormwater and wastewater system
Based on the construction of the city hydrological model (Figure 10), it was
possible to simulate the original natural hydrographical network and limit the corresponding catchments.
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Figure 10 – Alcântara original hydrologic model
This model allows identifying the main endpoints of accumulation (mouth), regardless of the advancement of the shore line.
The stormwater network is rather complex but in a good part coincides with
the natural network layout. The main exceptions are in the areas of Campo
Grande and Lumiar, where the sewer networks drain wastewater and stormwater to another catchment of Chelas.
According to the current Lisbon Mater Plan, Lisbon has a classified wetlands
system (Figure 11) that corresponds to a set of areas whose characteristics,
hydrological and geomorphological (open and groundwater channels,
adjacent respective areas and basins receiving stormwater), pedological (alluvial zones) and geological (upwelling water) have high probability of
being covered temporarily by rainwater.
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Figure 11 – Alcântara wetlands system
A large part of Lisbon’s sewer system is combined. However, especially since
1995, new developments have been planned with separate systems and today
there is about 27% of the area with separate networks, being 12% separate domestic and 15% separate stormwater.
In the oldest parts of the city, mainly downtown, combined system has a
higher expression, about 97%, especially in the sub-catchments of Terreiro do
Paço and Cais do Sodré. In the upstream parts, with a more recent
construction, as Benfica and Avenidas Novas, there is a higher incidence of separate systems but still connected to the downtown combined sewers.
Many of these systems are really functioning as combined due to the large
number of illegal or wrong connections to both stormwater and domestic
sewers (Telhado et al., 2014).
Most of the 774 km of existing sewers, about 64%, have circular cross section
(Figure 12). From these, the domestic sewers are mainly of stoneware ceramic
while for stormwater sewers the majority are of cement or concrete. Plastic
materials such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polypropylene corrugated
(PP) have been used in the past 30 years in both stormwater and domestic sewers.
The second more common cross section is the oval or ovoid with 29% (Figure
12). Most of these sewers, installed before 1950, are made of stone masonry
(Figure 13a) or, less usual, of brick. After 1950’s, the use of this section is less frequent and usually are oval reinforced concrete sewers. Often, this type of
cross section has a gutter, in some cases made of stoneware (Figure 13b).
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Figure 12 – Types of cross-sections
a) Stone masonry sewer b) Sewer with gutter
Figure 13 – Oval cross section
Regarding the remaining cross section shape, only rectangular sewers (Figure
14a) have some representativeness of about 5%. The sewers in “saimel”, about
1%, generally have inverted U section (Figure 14b) or, in few cases, oval cross section (Figure 13a). These sewers are characteristic of the Baixa Pombalina
area (Telhado et al., 2014).
a) Stone sewer b) “Saimel” sewer
Figure 14 – Rectangular and inverted U cross section
Baixa Pombalina was the first part of Lisbon having a sewer network. It was
completely rebuilt after the earthquake of 1st November 1755. The sewers of
this area of the city, built by demand of Marquis of Pombal, prime minister of
King Joseph I, are known as “saimel”, designation of the bricks built with limestone.
Cross-handle arch
Rectangular
Circular
Oval/Ovoid
Inverted U
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The cross-handle arch section (Figure 15a) is used when there is any limitation on the installation depth. It is usually made of reinforced concrete
and there are about 3900 meters of these sewers in the catchment.
The rectangular section (Figure 15b) is generally used in large sewers and is
mostly made of in situ reinforced concrete or prefabricated elements. The
extension of these sewers in the catchment does not reach 2500 meters.
The majority of sewers, about 85%, are non-man-entry, having vertical
dimension or diameter of less than 1800 mm. Sewers with smaller dimensions
usually have circular sections. In this type of section, the percentage of man-
entry sewers is less than 1%. Man-entry sewers can have very different cross sections. Non-man-entry sewers rarely have vertical dimension less than 1000
mm. Finally, the cross-handle arch section and “saimel” sewers, although less
common, have a significant percentage of man-entry sections.
a) Cross-handle arch section b) Rectangular section
Figure 15 – Cross-handle arch and rectangular cross section shapes
The caneiro of Alcântara is the main sewer of the Alcântara catchment
draining an area of 3100 ha, about 65% of the total Alcântara subsystem area.
It has approximately 10 km length, starting near Portas de Benfica and
developing toward the southwest, crossing the neighbourhoods of Benfica
and S. Domingos de Benfica to the railway station of Campolide. At north of this site there is a confluence of a significant branch of Sete Rios,
corresponding to a catchment contribution of 323 ha corresponding to the
areas of Avenidas Novas, Entre Campos, Campo Pequeno, Hospital de S.
Maria, Sete Rios e Praça de Espanha. Downstream this sewer develops to the
south until the Tagus River near the Gare Marítima de Alcântara (Figure 16).
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Figure 16 – Caneiro de Alcântara
The caneiro de Alcântara is mostly made of concrete and with a purpose
designed cross-section, consisting of a parabolic arch with 0.45 meters
thickness supported on lateral walls, ending in two lateral blocks against which loads are transmitted to the support foundations. The invert has a 0.20
m thickness and has a central channel for dry weather flows, allowing man
circulation during dry weather periods in the lateral benches (Figure 17).
Figure 17 – Cross section of caneiro de Alcântara
Rehabilitated In rehabilitation
Rehabilitation planned
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The cross section dimensions vary through eight types of sections. The smaller section is upstream (type VII), next to Portas de Benfica, has 4.66 m
wide by 3.00 m high. The downstream sections, between Campolide and
Alcantara railway stations (type I and II) have a width of 8.00 m by a height of
5.15 m. At the confluence of the branch of Sete Rios the section type VIII
reaches 14.00 m wide and 6.50 m high (Figure 18) (Telhado et al., 2014).
Braço de Benfica Braço de Sete Rios
Figure 18 – Confluence of the two branches of caneiro de Alcântara
The Alcântara subsystem is divided into an upstream and a downstream
areas (Figure 19a), using the treatment plant as reference. The downstream
area includes the entire river front, from Algés to Alfama, and is divided into two drainage fronts: Algés-Alcântara and Alfama-Alcântara (Figure 19b).
This part of the wastewater system has eleven pumping stations to direct dry
weather flows to the treatment plant. The wastewater collected from these
two fronts arrives at pumping station 3 (PS3) for further pumping up to the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) of Alcântara (Figure 19b).
The wastewater from Amadora and Lisbon’s upstream area flows to the
WWTP through the caneiro de Alcântara. The caneiro crosses the areas of
Falagueira, Benfica, Campolide and Av. de Ceuta, in a 10 km length (Figure
19a).
The Alcântara WWTP was designed to serve all the population of the area
encompassed by its subsystem i.e. 756 000 inhabitants equivalent, from the
Lisbon, Amadora and Oeiras municipalities, for 3.3 m3/s for dry weather flow
and a total flow of 6.6 m3/s to accommodate some wet weather flows. The average wastewater treated flow is around 130 000 to 140 000 m3/day.
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a) Downstream and upstream areas
b) Downstream interceptor system
Figure 19 – Areas of the Alcântara subsystem
For the design of the WWTP several conditioning factors were taken into
account, among which are: the guarantee that the WWTP was fully
operational during the period of the adaptation and enlargement works; the
secondary treatment and disinfection would be obtained through the use of modern technologies that should be built in a confined space, affected and
surrounded by large infrastructures; the need to ensure the environmental
and landscape re-qualification of a facility located in an urban area (Figure 20)
(Martins et al., 2014).
Alcântara WWTP
Front Alfama-Alcântara
Front Algés-Alcântara
PS 3
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(http://www.simtejo.pt)
Figure 20 – Alcântara WWTP
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3 Implementation of the WCSP at the integrated level
3.1 WCSP 1. Commitment and establishment of water cycle safety policy and
scope
3.1.1 Project team
In order to assemble a team for the development of the WCSP all relevant
stakeholders were identified. Relevant stakeholders are those who can affect, or can be affected by, the activities carried out in relation with the water cycle.
A multi-stakeholder team was created for the water cycle level. Additionally,
it was created a team at each utility for development of the SSPs. One or more
members from these SSPs teams were represented in the water cycle level team.
A three level structure for the water cycle level team was adopted (Table 1)
comprising a core team, a second level team and a third level team.
The core team was composed by the water utilities (drinking water supply,
wastewater and stormwater systems), the Portuguese water and waste services regulator and LNEC as a research partner. This core team did the
main work of development of the WCSP demonstration.
A second level team was also planned. This team corresponds to an extended
working team composed by stakeholders that were regularly asked to contribute on specific issues and that could be involved in the
implementation of risk reduction measures: the Catchment Authority, the
Directorate General of Health, the Electrical Supplier and the Municipal Civil
Protection. Although the second level was not activated during the course of
the project, some representatives participated in the core team work. The representatives from the Municipal Civil Protection Department of Lisbon
actively contributed to the main work of developing the WCSP. The
representative from the Health Authority participated in all the core team
meetings and provided useful information for the development of work.
The third level includes stakeholders that, in a full scale implementation of
the WCSP, would provide information needed for the WCSP development
and that should be informed on developments of the whole WCSP process.
This team level was also not activated within the timeframe of the
PREPARED project. It included representatives from domestic customers, agents and association of consumers; Administration of the port of Lisbon;
Administration of railways infrastructure; Administration of railways service;
boroughs within the Alcântara catchment; neighbour water utilities, namely
Oeiras & Amadora water and wastewater municipal services; neighbour
municipalities, such as Oeiras municipality and Amadora municipality; Portuguese Environment Agency; and, communications providers.
A detailed description of each organization which had representatives in the
core team is made in section 3.1.2.
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Table 1 – WC level team composition
Stakeholder name Relationship to system Number of
representatives
Core team members
EPAL Drinking water utility 3
SimTejo
Utility responsible for the
wastewater interception and
treatment system
3
CML – Lisbon
Municipality/Department of Construction Works and
Maintenance of Infrastructure
Utility responsible for the
wastewater and stormwater
collection systems
2
ERSAR – Regulator Authority Water and waste services
regulator 2
LNEC – Research Laboratory 3
2nd level team members
ARH – Catchment authority of
Lisbon and Tagus valley
Give info; Responsibility in
RRM implementation -
DGS – Directorate General of
Health
Give info; Responsibility in
RRM implementation 1
CML-CPD – Municipal Civil
Protection Department
Give info; Responsibility in
RRM implementation 2
EDP – Electrical Supplier Give info; Responsibility in
RRM implementation -
3rd level team members
Domestic customers/agents, association of consumers
Give info; To be informed of the WCSP process
-
APL – Administration of the port of Lisbon
Give info; To be informed of the WCSP process -
REFER – Administration of railways infrastructure
Give info; To be informed of the WCSP process -
CP - Administration of railways service
Give info; To be informed of the WCSP process -
Boroughs within the Alcântara
catchment
Give info; To be informed of
the WCSP process -
Oeiras & Amadora water and
wastewater municipal services
Give info; To be informed of
the WCSP process -
Oeiras Municipality Give info; To be informed of
the WCSP process -
Amadora Municipality Give info; To be informed of
the WCSP process -
APA – Portuguese
Environment Agency
Give info; To be informed of
the WCSP process -
PT, TMN, VODAFONE,
OPTIMUS - Communications providers
Give info; To be informed of
the WCSP process -
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3.1.2 Participant stakeholders description
EPAL – Core team member
Founded in 1868 as CAL - Companhia das Águas de Lisboa, a privately
owned concession to supply water to Lisbon, it became a State owned
company in 1974, named EPAL. Since 1991, EPAL is a public limited
company, wholly owned by Águas de Portugal group.
EPAL provides drinking water to 2.9 million people (about one-quarter of the Portuguese population) in 35 municipalities, including Lisbon,
covering a region of around 5.4 km2. With approximately 700 staff, EPAL
has assets with a net fixed value of more than 900 million EUR (Luís et al.,
2014).
SimTejo– Core team member
SIMTEJO is a leading company operating in the environmental sector in Portugal and its mission is to contribute to the pursuit of national
objectives in the wastewater collection and treatment within a framework
of economic, financial, technical, social and environmental sustainability.
Its goal is to protect and value the natural and human environment: the
activities of the company include collection, treatment and disposal of urban and industrial wastewater, including its recycling and reuse in an
environmental safe manner. Sustainable use and preservation of natural
resources, equilibrium and improvement of the quality of the
environment, equity in access to public services and the promotion of well-being and people’s standards of living are fundamental values to
SimTejo.
SimTejo is the concessionary company of the Multi-municipal Sanitation
System of Rivers Tagus and Trancão. It was established in December 2001
with the main purpose of assuring the gathering and treatment of effluents originated in the hydrographic basins of river Trancão, in the
small right bank basins of Tagus Estuary, between Vila Franca de Xira
and Algés, and in the Mafra´s west streams, encompassing a total area of
about 1000 square kilometers. SimTejo exploits currently a system that includes 30 WWTP, 84 pumping stations and 271 km of main sewage
system, and treats around 118 Mm3/yr, serving a population of 1,5
million inhabitants in the north area of Lisbon (served municipalities:
Amadora, Lisboa, Loures, Odivelas, Mafra e Vila Franca de Xira). The
final system (to be finished by 2013) will include 31 WWTP, 95 pumping stations and 327 km of collectors (Martins et al., 2014).
Municipality of Lisbon – Core team member and second level team member
The Municipality of Lisbon is the executive body of the municipality and
its mission is to define and execute policies that may promote the
development of the city of Lisbon in different areas. There are six main
strategic questions faced by the future of the city, namely, how to socially recuperate, renovate and balance the population; how to turn Lisbon into
a friendly, safe and inclusive city for everyone; how to turn Lisbon into an
environmentally sustainable and energetically efficient city; how to
Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.
© PREPARED - 29 - 30 December 2013
transform Lisbon into an innovative, creative city capable of competing in a global context, generating wealth and employment; how to assert the
identity of Lisbon, in a globalized World; how to create an efficient,
participatory and financially sustainable model of governance for Lisbon.
Within the scope of the Lisbon WCSP demonstration, two departments of
the Lisbon municipality participated, namely, Department of Construction Works and Maintenance of Infrastructure and Public Streets
and Civil Protection Department.
Department of Construction Works and Maintenance of Infrastructure
and Public Streets has an activity which objectives are assure the design, installation and maintenance of infrastructure and public streets,
coordinate the project design and works in public streets and
underground.
The Civil Protection Department (CPD) is a local authority on the
structure of the Lisbon Municipality. CPD is responsible for the management of the city during crisis and exceptional conditions and
works in articulation with the National and District Authorities for Civil
Protection. According to the Civil Protection Portuguese Law, the main
intervention areas are collective risk prevention, and their effects in case
of disaster or accident. CPD is responsible by the areas of risk analysis, emergency planning, public information, operations and training on Civil
Protection field and psychosocial support in daily emergency situations
and in case of big disasters.
The city of Lisbon joined the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) Campaign 2010-2015, ”Making Cities Resilient: My
City is Getting Ready” in December 2010 in the sequence of the work
developed by the Civil Protection Department.
ERSAR – Core team member
ERSAR is the Water and Waste Services Regulation Authority in charge of
regulating public water supply services, urban wastewater management services and municipal waste management services.
Public water supply, urban wastewater management and municipal waste
management are public services essential to the well-being, public health
and, finally, collective security of the populations and economic activities,
as well as to the environment protection. These services must respect the principles of universal access, uninterrupted and high quality of service
and efficient and equitable prices. ERSAR aims to ensure adequate
protection of the water and waste sector consumers and users, avoiding
possible subsequent abuse of exclusive rights with regard to the guarantee and quality control of the public service provided, on the one
hand, and supervision and control of prices, on the other; to ensure equal
and clear conditions in the access to the water and waste services and the
operation of these services; reinforce the right to general information
about the sector and, more precisely, about each operator.
Regulation is essential due to the natural or legal monopoly situation of
these services. ERSAR established its own regulation model and regulates
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© PREPARED - 30 - 30 December 2013
over 500 operators. Although the authority of ERSAR depends on the Ministry of Agriculture, Sea, Environment and Spatial Planning
(MAMAOT), its financing comes from regulation fees and drinking water
control fees collected from the operators.
LNEC – Core team member
LNEC is the largest Portuguese applied research institute in the field of
civil engineering and related environmental areas, combining R&D with specialised consultancy and with general support to the industry. The
LNEC main goals are to carry out innovative R&D and to contribute to
the best practices in civil engineering in the scope of public works,
infrastructures, housing and town-planning, water resources, transports,
environment, building materials industry and other building products. LNEC has carried out studies in more than 40 countries, in all continents,
within the framework of R&D studies and advanced technological
consultancy.
LNEC has a long-term applied research experience in the fields of urban
water, both nationally and internationally, based on multidisciplinary approaches and multi-stakeholders R&D projects, with joint teams with
the utilities, including broad consortia and strategic platforms, at
European and international levels. LNEC’s Urban Water Division (NES)
performs leading-edge research in areas such risk management, urban water cycle safety planning, infrastructure asset management, monitoring,
mathematical modelling, early-warning systems, performance
assessment, efficient water and energy use, GIS.
LNEC is the Portuguese research partner and acted as coordinator of the
development of the WCSP demonstration activities to Lisbon.
DGS – Directorate General of Health – Second level team member
The Directorate-General of Health (DGS) is a public body of the Ministry
of Health that positions itself as a reference for all those who think and
operate in the healthcare field. Its main areas of activity are to issue
clinical and organizational guidelines; to guide and develop programmes
of Public health, improved healthcare and total clinical and organizational quality management; to coordinate and assure national epidemiological
surveillance; to prepare and publish health statistics; to support the
activities of the National Public Health Officer; to coordinate the Public
Health Emergencies System; to monitor the National Health Service Contact Centre; to prepare and assure the execution of the National
Health Plan; to coordinate the European and international relations of the
Ministry of Health; to regulate and monitor the compliance with safety
and quality standards of blood, tissues and organs.
DGS is focused on citizens’ interests, in cooperation with other public bodies, particularly those accountable to the Ministry of Health.
3.1.3 Team coordinator
The team was coordinated by the research partner LNEC.
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3.1.4 Team modus operandi
In order to develop the WCSP process, the team worked together in a total of
51 periodic meetings (see Table 2, Figure 21, Figure 22 and Figure 23).
Additionally, each stakeholder developed most of the work between
meetings. The results from this work were presented to the whole group in the following meeting.
The planning of the work for each WCSP step was made by the team
coordinator in agreement with the other participants. Each meeting was
dedicated to one or two WCSP steps, so that all steps could be covered within
the PREPARED project timeframe.
For each team meeting, the team coordinator prepared the meeting agenda,
the presentations and reported on the meeting.
At the integrated level, meetings had a monthly average frequency. SSPs
related meetings took place between integrated level meetings sometimes
with higher frequency.
Documents circulated by e-mail among stakeholders and working files
(reports, excel forms, data files, etc.) were shared through Dropbox.
Table 2 –Meetings for the development of the WCSP
Level Meetings*
Integrated level 13 meetings:
20-12-2011
31-01-2012, 13-03-2012, 27-04-2012, 21-06-2012, 17-10-2012, 11-12-2012
23-01-2013, 24-05-2013, 25-09-2013, 30-10-2013, 20-11-2013, 11-12-2013
System level – SSP EPAL 10 meetings
System level – SSP SimTejo 17 meetings
System level – SSP CML 10 meetings
*Not including preliminary work meetings
Figure 21 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk events location
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Figure 22 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk events characterisation
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Figure 23 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk reduction measures location
3.1.5 Scope of WCSP
The WCSP was developed considering the following systems, which are
described in detail in section 0:
drinking water system;
wastewater system;
stormwater system;
non-drinking water system.
The WCSP focused on risks in the urban water cycle that are climate change
related. As previously mentioned only risks associated with the Alcantâra
catchment were dealt with.
3.1.6 Time frame to develop the WCSP
Preliminary work began in January 2011 and was carried out by LNEC. This
work consisted in the identification of relevant stakeholders, initial contacts
and invitations and individual meetings with each of the stakeholders, for
presentation of PREPARED and discussion about their participation in the
project. During this period research developments on the WCSP framework and tools were also carried out.
Subsequently, PREPARED demonstration activities proceeded according to
the time frame in Table 3 and started in December 2011 with a kick-off
meeting with all stakeholders. It was necessary to make some adjustments to
the initial planning because, in some steps, the work required additional time to be correctly developed.
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Table 3 – Timeframe for developing WCSP at integrated level
Task
Mo
nth
1
Mo
nth
2
Mo
nth
3
Mo
nth
4
Mo
nth
5
Mo
nth
6
Mo
nth
7
Mo
nth
8
Mo
nth
9
Mo
nth
10
Mo
nth
11
Mo
nth
12
Mo
nth
13
Mo
nth
14
Mo
nth
15
Mo
nth
16
Mo
nth
17
Mo
nth
18
Mo
nth
19
Mo
nth
20
Mo
nth
21
Mo
nth
22
Mo
nth
23
Mo
nth
24
Mo
nth
25
Aft
er
mo
nth
25
Commitment
and establishment of
water cycle
safety policy and scope
Urban water cycle
characterisation
Risk
identification in the water cycle
Risk analysis and evaluation
in the water
cycle
Development of
system safety plans
Risk treatment
Management
and communication
programs and
protocols
Monitoring and
review
3.1.7 Formal requirements
Drinking water system
EPAL is regulated by the national water services regulator ERSAR that requires the yearly assessment of the quality of service provided by the
water utilities to the users, establishing levels of service through the
application of a set of 16 performance indicators (Alegre et al., 2012).
Drinking water quality has to comply with the Portuguese
Decree-law 306/2007 that establishes maximum admissible values for a set of chemical and microbiological parameters and also defines
responsibilities of the several stakeholders involved in the management of
supply systems. The quality of water sources used for the production of
drinking water has to comply with the Portuguese Decree-law 236/98 (Luís et al., 2014).
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Wastewater system
Lisbon Municipality and SimTejo are regulated by the national water
services regulator ERSAR (see 3.1.2) that requires yearly the assessment of
the quality of service provided to the users, establishing levels of service
through the application of a set of 16 performance indicators (Alegre et al.,
2012).
The SimTejo regulation, to be developed until 15th October each year, as
established by Portaria 34/2011, shall also be considered.
The WWTP water resources title (APA issued) license
n. 2012.000241.0010.T.L.RJ.DAR establishes the discharges requirements for the treated wastewater in the receiving water body Tagus Estuary
(Table 4). The treated wastewater is submitted to a battery of analysis to
verify compliance with the discharge requirements (Martins et al., 2014).
Table 4 – Discharge requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP
Parameter Emission limit value
(VLE)
SST (total suspended solids) 35 mg/l
BOD (biochemical oxygen demand) 25 mg/l
COD (chemical oxygen demand) 125 mg/l
Stormwater system
Lisbon Municipality is regulated by ERSAR that requires yearly the assessment of the quality of service provided to the users, establishing
levels of service through the application a set of 16 performance indicators
(Alegre et al., 2012).
Non-drinking water system
At the national level only the use of treated urban wastewater for irrigation is regulated through the Decree - Law n. 236/98, of 1 of August
and EN 4434/2005.
The Lisbon and Tagus Valley Regional Centre for Public Health recommends the requirements presented in Table 5 and
Table 6 for different uses (Santos et al., 2011).
Table 5 – Requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP for reuse in washing
Parameter/Type of use Streets washing Cars washing
Termotolerant Coliform
Bacteria (/100 mL) ≤ 200 ≤ 1000
Gastrointestinal Nematode
Eggs (egg/L)
≤ 0.1 ≤ 0.1
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Table 6 – Requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP for reuse in irrigation
Parameter/Type of use Public green areas Vegetable cultures
Faecal Coliforms - Maximum
Recommended Value (VMR)
200 NMP/100 mL
or ufc/100 mL
100 NMP/100 mL
or ufc/100 mL
Eggs and parasites -
Maximum Admissible Value
(VMA) (egg/L)
1 1
3.1.8 Water cycle safety policy
Given that the WCSP demonstration was set within a project, having in mind
the test and identification of opportunities for improving the framework proposal, a formal agreement was made between the participants to ensure
their involvement and also issues related with confidentiality and data
sharing.
3.1.9 Criteria for subsequent risk analysis
The definition of criteria to be used in the estimation and evaluation of risk, especially in the steps of risk analysis, evaluation and treatment was
developed from a first proposal from LNEC. After discussing them with the
team participants a common basis was agreed upon.
The selected method for risk identification was the one proposed in
PREPARED WA2 and the RIDB was used as a supporting tool. For risk estimation the risk matrix method was considered adequate. Likelihood,
consequence and risk scales were defined, considering 5, 5 and 3 classes,
respectively, as well as a matrix was selected. Legal, regulatory or other
formal requirements were taken in consideration for defining the likelihood and consequence scales.
The dimensions of consequence selected were: (1) Health and safety
(consumer, public, occupational); (2) Financial; (3) Service continuity; (4)
Environmental impacts; (5) Liability, compliance, reputation and image. For
the dimension (1) the metrics used were the number and severity of injuries of people affected by disease and the number of people affected permanently
(mortality and disability). For the dimension (2), the metric used was the
effect on the annual operating budget. In dimension (3), the metrics selected
were the duration of interruption of water supply services; the number of
client.hours of service loss, the bulk water supply service loss , the untreated wastewater discharge and the number of properties and area affected by
flooding. For dimension (4), the metrics for impact on water (surface,
ground), land, air, flora, fauna were expressed as expected recovery time and
severity of the damage. In the case of dimension (5) the metrics used were the number of complaints, the frequency of negative references to the utility in
the media and the frequency of lawsuits.
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3.2 WCSP 2. Urban water cycle characterisation
3.2.1 Water cycle description and flow diagram
The water systems considered for the Lisbon - Alcântara demonstration case
are presented in Figure 24.
Figure 24 – Water systems for the Lisbon - Alcântara demonstration case
Most water that supplies the Alcântara catchment comes from the Castelo do
Bode Dam, owned by EDP (Table 1). The Alcântara system is also supplied by
other sources: Tagus River, Ota abstraction, Alenquer abstraction and Lezírias abstraction. After being abstracted the bulk surface water is transported to the
Asseiceira and Vale da Pedra WTPs where it is treated (Luís et al., 2014).
Groundwater from Ota, Lezírias and Alenquer is treated at the abstractions’
sites. The treated water is transported in a transmission system to Telheiras,
Olivais and Barbadinhos water tanks, reaching the consumers tap through the distribution system in Alcântara basin (2.2.2).
The stormwater generated within the Alcântara catchment drains to the
combined sewer system (2.2.3). The domestic wastewater produced in the
upstream areas of the Alcântara catchment is collected by the wastewater sewer system, which is mostly combined, and is transported through the
main sewer caneiro de Alcântara to the Alcântara WWTP. The wastewater
from the downstream areas is collected and transported in an interceptor
sewer, with eleven pumping stations. The wastewater is pumped from the
interceptor to the WWTP (2.2.3). During rain periods, either when the combined system or the WWTP capacities are exceeded, combined sewer
overflows are discharged to the Tagus estuary.
Part of the treated wastewater from the Alcântara WWTP is discharged to the
Tagus estuary and part is reused for irrigation. The Tagus estuary, under the
responsibility of ARH (Table 1), is used for recreational activities (2.1). The diagram representing the water cycle flow is presented in Figure 25.
The main interactions between the different systems in the water cycle
reported by the stakeholders are:
source water and drinking water system;
collection and interception system;
LisbonWaterCycleSafetyPlan
Water supplyEPALWSP & SSP
Wastewater interception/ treatmentSIMTEJOSSP
Drainage combined/ / separate sewersLisbon municipality
CatchmentARH Tejo Catchment authority
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domestic and stormwater system;
wastewater and non-drinking water system;
wastewater system and receiving waters;
stormwater system and receiving waters.
Figure 25 – Water cycle flow diagram
3.3 WCSP 3. Preliminary risk identification in the water cycle
3.3.1 Supporting tools
Different supporting tools were used during the risk identification step. These
tools were developed within the PREPARED project (Figure 26) and tools that
support risk identification are briefly described as follows:
Fault trees tool (SFTWC) - provide a means to schematise the ways a
hazardous event can occur. This tool provides a set of 20 fault trees (one
for each hazard identified within PREPARED), in order to facilitate the
task of WCSP events identification either at integrated or system level Almeida et al. (2013b). The qualitative fault trees provided within
PREPARED support tool are generic. Thus, the basic events were further
detailed and applied for the Alcântara water cycle integrated and
systems’ levels of application.
Wastewater from Oeiras,
Amadora and Lisboa
Interception system
Alcantara wastewater treatment
plant
Non drinking water system
Treated wastewater reuse for irrigation and
streets and equipment
cleaning
SIMTEJO wastewater utility
Receiving water body: Tejo river
Wastewater and
stormwater from Oeiras
and Amadora
Collection system
Discharge in receiving water body
CML wastewater utility
Wastewater and
stormwater from Lisboa
Recreational uses
Discharge in receiving water body
Source waters
Raw water Water
treatment plants
Treated waterAlcantara distribution
systemDrinking
water
EPAL water utilityStored water
Caneiro de Alcântara
Stormwater from
Alcântara
Collection system
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Risk identification database (RIDB) – this database provides a ‘checklist’ of known risks based on industry knowledge and lessons learned from
historical events. RIDB characterizes more than 100 events for the water
cycle integrated and systems’ levels application, providing information on
event description; associated hazards, risk sources, contributing causes,
existing measures to reduce risk, risk factors and typical consequences dimensions, system component where risk source occurs and system
component where exposure occurs. For each event, information on the
expected impacts of climate change indicators and effects is also given
(Almeida et al., 2011a; Almeida et al., 2013b, Almeida et al., 2013c). Using RIDB the generic events had to be detailed and characterised for the
Alcântara water cycle integrated and systems’ levels application.
Risk analysis form (RA_Form) – this form, in excel format, was created
during the development of the Lisbon case study to register the events
that were identified in this demo. For each event, information to be registered includes: event description, hazards, risk sources, contributing
causes, measures to reduce risk (existing measures and additional
measures), risk factors, system component where risk source occurs,
system component where exposure occurs, expected impacts of climate
change, probability (class and justification of selected class) and consequence (class for each consequence dimension and justification of
selected class). Based on probability and consequence, the form
automatically calculates the event risk.
Risk analysis registry (RAR) – this template is used to register information that characterizes the events identified in the demo. Each event has
associated one record sheet registering essentially the same information
included in the RA_Form but in a word format more suitable for
reporting.
Risk identification database (RIDB)
Set of fault trees for hazardous events
identified for the water cycle (SFTWC)
List of relevant hazards identified for urban
water systems (LHWC)
Risk reduction database (RRDB)
Template for risk analysis registry (RAR)
(MS WORD file)
Risk analysis form (RA form)
(MS EXCEL file)
(a) Database type tools (b) Registry type tools
Figure 26 – Tools developed to support the application of the WCSP framework (Almeida et al., 2013a)
3.3.2 Relevant hazards
A first identification of the relevant hazards was made looking at the whole
water cycle, considering the hazard checklist provided by the PREPARED
project (Almeida et al., 2010) and using the information compiled in Step 2,
the team members’ knowledge of the system, a site visit, previous risk studies
made by the Lisbon municipality and historical information. The following
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© PREPARED - 40 - 30 December 2013
hazards were considered to be relevant, at the integrated level, for the Alcântara system:
Extended periods without supply;
Presence of microbial pathogens in flooding water;
Presence of microbial pathogens in water used for irrigation;
Water infrastructure collapses or bursts potentially causing injuries to public;
High velocity runoff in public streets;
High depth flooding in public areas or private properties;
Discharge of organics in the water cycle or soil;
Discharge of nutrients (P/N) in the water cycle;
Discharge of heavy metals and other chemicals in the water cycle or soil.
Due to resources limitations within the PREPARED project timeframe, it was
decided to focus the subsequent work on hazards for which information was more easily available to characterize the associated events:
Extended periods without supply;
High velocity runoff in public streets;
High depth flooding in public areas or private properties;
Discharge of organics in the water cycle or soil.
3.3.3 Potential events, risk sources and risk factors
For each of the previously selected hazards, risk sources (elements which
alone or in combination have the intrinsic potential to give rise to risk), risk
factors (something that can have an effect on the risk level, by changing the
probability or the consequences of an event) and events (sequence of individual occurrences of consequences) were identified and characterized.
This work was carried out using the information compiled in Step 2, the team
members’ knowledge of the system, site visits, historical information and the
information provided by the PREPARED risk identification database, as well
as fault trees.
A total of 23 climate change related events were considered to be relevant at
the integrated level. These events were originated in the SSPs development
and are related to issues involving more than one stakeholder or are
associated with boundaries among the different systems. Some examples of
the identified events, risk sources and risk factors are presented in Table 7. The complete characterization of these example events is made in Annex 1.
The three main risk sources identified as relevant for Alcântara are related
with high precipitation intensity, decrease of precipitation/drought and
high river or sea level. In Lisbon, situations of high precipitation intensity usually occur during autumn and winter, but there are historical registers of
occurrences in other seasons. Problems associated with high river or sea level
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occur mainly when high-tide coincides with high precipitation (that leads to direct flooding along the coastline and to the flow inversion in wastewater
systems that discharge in the Tagus river) and with storm surges. Examples
of the events and related hazards, risk sources and risk factors identified for
Alcântara are presented in Table 7.
These risk sources (alone or in combination) can originate urban flooding in some critical areas of the city (Figure 27 and Figure 28) located near the
coastline, in valleys, in areas with low level or low slope and in areas that, in
the past, were streams or water courses.
Table 7 – Examples of the events and related hazards, risk sources and risk factors identified for Alcântara
Event ID
Event Hazard Risk sources Risk factors
E1
20
1.0
3
High velocity runoff in Luís de Camões street due to
intense rainfall (RP = 10 years) and to insufficient sewers
capacity resulting from high
river or sea level, causing injuries to public, damages to
property, disturbances in
services and activities
High velocity
runoff in public
streets
Occurrence of abnormal
metereologic phenomena (high
intensity rainfall)
Occurrence of abnormal
hydrologic
phenomena (high river or sea level)
Human physical
vulnerability Social and
economic
vulnerability Infrastructure
condition
E1
30
1.0
6
High depth flooding in public areas or private properties in
Alcântara due to intense
rainfall (RP = 100 years) and to insufficient sewers capacity
resulting from high river or
sea level, causing injuries to public, damages to property,
disturbances in services and
activities
High depth
flooding
in public areas or
private
properties
Occurrence of abnormal
metereologic
phenomena (high intensity rainfall)
Occurrence of
abnormal hydrologic
phenomena (high
river or sea level)
Human physical
vulnerability
Social and economic
vulnerability
Infrastructure condition
E1
70
5
Discharge of organics in the water cycle or soil due to
discharge of untreated WW
from wastewater system caused by failure in Alcântara
WWTP for insufficient
treatment plant capacity during peak flow causing
damages to the environment
Discharge of
organics
in the water
cycle
Occurrence of abnormal
metereologic
phenomena (high intensity rainfall)
Precipitation intensity
Contaminant
concentration
E0
50
6
Extended periods without
supply due to unavailability
of surface water in Tagus river due to drought, affecting
public health and causing disturbances in services and
activities
Extended
periods
without supply
Unavailability of
water at source
Occurrence of abnormal
metereologic phenomena (low
rainfall)
Precipitation
intensity
Temperature
Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.
© PREPARED - 42 - 30 December 2013
Figure 27 – Vulnerability to flooding in Lisbon
Figure 28 – Direct tidal effect in Lisbon
Systems and their interactions were characterised and risks identified and evaluated with the support of information gathered from the Geographic
Information Systems (GIS) of the involved stakeholders. GIS was used to
locate climate change related risk events in Lisbon and to characterise these
events in the Alcântara catchment, as illustrated in Figure 29.
Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.
© PREPARED - 43 - 30 December 2013
Figure 29 – Risk identification and evaluation - risk events location
3.4 WCSP 4. Preliminary risk analysis and evaluation in the water cycle
3.4.1 Supporting tools
Several supporting tools were used during the risk analysis and evaluation
step. These tools were developed within the PREPARED project (Figure 26) and tools that support risk analysis are briefly described as follows:
Risk identification database (RIDB) – as mentioned in section 3.3.1, this
database provides a ‘checklist’ of known risks based on industry
knowledge and lessons learned from historical events. For the more than
100 events included, information is provided on event description; associated hazards, risk sources, contributing causes, existing measures to
reduce risk, risk factors and typical consequences dimensions, system
component where risk source occurs and system component where
exposure occurs. For each event, information on the expected impacts of climate change indicators and effects is also given (Almeida et al., 2011a;
Almeida et al., 2013b, Almeida et al., 2013c).
Risk analysis form (RA_Form) – this form, in excel format, was created
during the development of the Lisbon case study to register the events
that were identified in this demo. For each event, information to be registered includes: event description, hazards, risk sources, contributing
Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.
© PREPARED - 44 - 30 December 2013
causes, measures to reduce risk (existing measures and additional measures), risk factors, system component where risk source occurs,
system component where exposure occurs, expected impacts of climate
change, probability (class and justification of selected class) and
consequence (class for each consequence dimension and justification of
selected class). Based on probability and consequence, the form automatically calculates the event risk.
Risk analysis registry (RAR) – this template is used to register information
that characterizes the events identified in the demo. Each event has
associated one record sheet registering essentially the same information included in the RA_Form but in a word format more suitable for
reporting.
3.4.2 Likelihood and consequences for each event
In Lisbon, intense rainfall is a typical scenario of the autumn and winter
seasons, when it is observed the highest number of days with unsteady weather, clouds and frequent and intense rainfall. Despite this seasonal
incidence, heavy rainfall can occur at any other time of the year. The intense
rainfall or persistence of rainy days can cause situations of urban flooding,
like the abnormal flow of stormwater to certain locations and facilities. The definition of unusually heavy rainfall values considers the values set for 1
hour period, associated with IDF curves (Intensity-Duration-Frequency),
proposed by Brandão (2001).
In Lisbon, the impact of the river flow in the city is mainly due to conjugation of intense rainfall and high sea level tide. Although this scenario in Lisbon
has low probability, in storms situations it may constitute a risk source for the
riverside area, if the maximum high tide is associated to a stormsurge.
For Lisbon, the Astronomical Tide Prediction model (Faculty of Science from the University of Lisbon) predicts that extreme levels of maximum high tide
in the reference period 2000-2010 vary between 4.26 m and 4.50 m, with an
average of 4.41 m. These values vary over the period of 18.6 years and consider as reference the Datum defined by the Cascais tide gauge, with a
value of 2.08 m below the average level of the sea.
Despite these figures present a low probability to occur in Lisbon, it is a scenario to consider because during the last decades a rise in the average level
of the sea and the Local Datum has been observed.
Historical records of flood occurrences have been reported in the news and media as they interfere with the population living and have damaged
building stock, vital points of the city or infrastructure in specific areas of the
city. These situations cyclically affect the city, with increasing intensity and
frequency, having been recorded in recent years (examples: 18th February,
2008; 29th October 2010; 21st December 2011).
Based on information from the records of the Firefighters Regiment and of the
Sewer Unit, it is possible to identify the consequences of high velocity or
height water depth.
SimTejo has a mathematical model of the sewer system that allows simulating
the system behaviour for the selected scenarios.
Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.
© PREPARED - 45 - 30 December 2013
Considering the criteria for risk analysis defined in 3.1.9, the selected risk events were characterised for their likelihood and consequences, based on the
information from The Lisbon Municipality, Simtejo and EPAL. Examples of
the likelihood and consequences classification for the Alcântara selected
events are presented in Table 8.
Table 8 – Examples of likelihood and consequence classification for the Alcântara events
Event
ID Event Probability class
Consequence Class
Hea
lth
an
d
safe
ty
Fin
an
cia
l
En
vir
on
men
tal
Ser
vic
e co
nti
nu
ity
Lia
bil
ity
, co
mp
lia
nc
rep
uta
tio
n a
nd
im
ag
e
E1
20
1.0
3
High velocity runoff in Luís
de Camões street due to intense rainfall (RP = 10
years) and to insufficient
sewers capacity resulting from high river or sea level,
causing injuries to public,
damages to property, disturbances in services and
activities
4
based in records of 10 rainfall
occurrences with
return period 10 years: 1976, 1969,
1985, 1987, 1993,
1997, 1999, 2002, 2008
1 1 n.a. 3 1
ba
sed
in
rec
ord
s
Dep
end
ent
of
the
aff
ecte
d a
rea
n.a
.
Sm
all
aff
ecte
d a
rea
Ima
ge
no
t a
ffec
ted
E1
30
1.0
6
High depth flooding in
public areas or private
properties in Alcântara due to intense rainfall (RP = 100
years) and to insufficient
sewers capacity resulting from high river or sea level,
causing injuries to public, damages to property,
disturbances in services and
activities
3
based in records of 5 rainfall
occurrences with
return period 100 years: 1967, 1983,
1997
2 2 n.a. 4 2
ba
sed
on
rec
ord
s
Dep
end
ent
of
the
aff
ecte
d a
rea
n.a
.
Sig
nif
ica
nt
aff
ecte
d a
rea
Ref
eren
ces
on
th
e m
edia
a
nd
co
mp
lain
ts
E1
70
5
Discharge of organics in the
water cycle or soil due to
discharge of untreated WW from wastewater system
caused by failure in Alcântara WWTP for
insufficient treatment plant
capacity during peak flow causing damages to the
environment
5
based on rainfall records and
WWTP capacity
1 1 1 1 1
ba
sed
on
rec
ord
s
Lo
w i
mp
act
Ra
pid
rec
ov
ery
Lo
w p
erce
nta
ge
of
un
trea
ted
d
isch
arg
es
Ima
ng
e n
ot
aff
ecte
d
E0
50
6
Extended periods without supply due to unavailability
of surface water in Tagus
river due to drought, affecting public health and
causing disturbances in
services and activities
1
Never occurred
3 3 n.a. 5 4
Th
e o
ccu
rren
ce
Ex
pec
ted
pu
bli
c h
ealt
h c
on
seq
uen
ces
A l
ow
per
cen
tag
e o
f A
OB
lo
st w
ou
ld b
e ex
pec
ted
n.a
.
Inte
rru
pio
n o
f su
pp
ly
rele
va
nt
in d
ura
tio
n
an
d c
lien
ts a
ffec
ted
Ad
ver
se c
ov
era
ge
by
m
edia
in
fro
nt
pa
ge
Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.
© PREPARED - 46 - 30 December 2013
3.4.3 Level of risk and risk evaluation for each event
Considering the risk matrix defined in 3.1.9, the selected events were
characterised for risk based on the likelihood and consequences. Examples of
the risk classification for the Alcântara selected events are presented in Table 10.
Table 9 – Examples of risk class for the Alcântara events
Event
ID Event
Risk class
global
Risk Class
Hea
lth
an
d
safe
ty
Fin
an
cia
l
En
vir
on
men
tal
Ser
vic
e co
nti
nu
ity
L
iab
ilit
y,
com
pli
an
c re
pu
tati
on
an
d
ima
ge
E1
20
1.0
3
High velocity runoff in Luís de
Camões street due to intense rainfall (RP = 10 years) and to insufficient
sewers capacity resulting from high
river or sea level, causing injuries to public, damages to property,
disturbances in services and
activities
2 1 1 n.a 2 1
E1
30
1.0
6
High depth flooding in public areas or private properties in Alcântara
due to intense rainfall (RP = 100
years) and to insufficient sewers capacity resulting from high river or
sea level, causing injuries to public,
damages to property, disturbances in services and activities
2 2 2 2 2 2
E1
70
5
Discharge of organics in the water
cycle or soil due to discharge of untreated WW from wastewater
system caused by failure in Alcântara WWTP for insufficient
treatment plant capacity during peak
flow causing damages to the environment
2 2 2 2 2 2
E0
50
6
Extended periods without supply
due to unavailability of surface water in Tagus river due to drought,
affecting public health and causing
disturbances in services and activities
2 1 1 n.a. 2 1
Based on the integrated risk analysis and evaluation, Lisbon team identified
that the most severe events are related to extended periods without supply,
high velocity runoff in public streets, high depth flooding in public areas and discharge of organics in the Tagus River.
Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.
© PREPARED - 47 - 30 December 2013
3.5 WCSP 5. Development of system safety plans (SSP)
Concurrently with the work at the integrated level, work was also developed at the system level. This system level work provided important inputs to the
integrated level.
SimTejo developed a SSP for the part of its system that is located in the Alcantâra catchment (Martins et al., 2014).
As EPAL already had in place a Water Safety Plan according to WHO
recommendations, it did not develop a full SSP according to the WCSP methodology, but, in some of the SSP steps, an adaptation of the WSP was
made (Luís et al., 2014).
The Lisbon Municipality also did not implement a full SSP, but contributed by developing work at the system level that provided input to the integrated
level. In particular, they characterized the system, identified and
characterized events relevant to the integrated level and identified applicable
risk reduction measures (Telhado et al., 2014).
It should be noted that the work at both levels started at