Denver Association
ofBusiness
EconomistsLuncheon
January 16, 2019
Trends and Forecasts for Colorado’s Labor Market
Ryan GedneySenior EconomistLabor Market Information, CDLE January 16, 2019
• Colorado Labor Market Trends & Characteristics (Labor Force, Industry, Occupations, and Wages)
• Comparisons of Colorado to Rest of U.S.
• Short and Long-Term Industry and Occupational Projections
Labor ForceTrends &
Characteristics in Colorado
U.S. & Colorado: UnemploymentRate
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan-
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Jan-
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Jan-
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U.S.
CO
Shaded areas denote period of U.S. recession throughout this presentation, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research
Reasons for Unemployment in Colorado (2000 – 2018)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey (CPS)
31%
43%
18% 19%
46%
29%
5%9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Shar
e of
Tot
al U
nem
ploy
ed
Job Losers
Reentrants
Job leavers
New entrants
Unemployment Duration in Colorado (2000 – 2018)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey (CPS)
64%
44%
21%23%
8%15%
7%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Shar
e of
Tot
al U
nem
ploy
ed
Less Than 7 Weeks27+ Weeks
7-14 Weeks
15-26 Weeks
Over 60% of Unemployed Coloradans Received UI Payment During Recession, Now Under 20%
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Colorado unemployment benefits data/Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
62%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Une
mpl
oym
ent I
nsur
ance
Rec
ipie
ncy
Rat
e
(All
Prog
ram
Typ
es)
State Extended Benefits Program Expires
Emergency Unemployment CompensationProgram Expires
Colorado Unemployment Rate by Level of Educational Attainment (25 years & over)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey (CPS)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Less than a high school diploma
High school graduates, no college
Some college or associate degree
Bachelor's degree and higher
Colorado has the 5th Highest Share of State Population* with Bachelor’s Degree or Greater
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey (CPS)
*25 years and older - 2017
Colorado’s U-6* Rate Leveled Off in 2018;Elevated Compared to 2000
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey (CPS)
5.2%6.1%
9.5%10.4%
9.5%8.8%
7.9%7.3%
9.2%
13.7%
15.4%15.1%14.6%
12.5%
9.4%
7.9%7.3%
6.3% 6.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*U-6 unemployment = total unemployed (U-3),+ all marginally attached workers,+ total employed part-time for economic reasons,as a percent of the civilian labor force + allmarginally attached workers
2018 Share of Involuntary Part-Time Workersat a Slightly Higher Rate Than In 2000
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey (CPS)
1.8%
5.7%
2.6%
CO
U.S.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Invo
lunt
ary
Part
-Tim
e as
Sha
re o
f Lab
or F
orce
Colorado’s Share of Employed Working Part-Time Ranges Between 16% - 21% Since 2000
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey (CPS)
16%
21%
CO17%
U.S.
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Notable Shifts in Labor Force Participation For Youngest & Oldest Cohorts Since 2000
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey (CPS)
55.4%
CO, Both SexesAges 16-19 41.8%
12.1%
CO, Both SexesAges 65+
24.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
18% of CO’s 16+ population in 2018were 65 and older12% of CO’s 16+
population in 2000were 65 and older
Prime-Age Labor Force Participation Recovering From Great Recession Decline
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey (CPS)
94.9%
92.9%
87.4%86.3% 86.0%
81.1%
77.5%78.9%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
CO, Men
CO, Women
CO, Both Sexes
U.S. & Colorado: 16+ Labor ForceParticipation Rate
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey (CPS)
67.1%
62.7% 62.9%
74.5%
66.5%
69.2%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
CO
U.S.
Colorado With Third Fastest Growth in Labor Force Since 2010
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Rank State Percent Growth in Labor Force Since 2010
1 Utah 16.7%
2 Texas 14.8%
3 Colorado 14.5%
4 Delaware 13.2%
5 Florida 12.9%
6 Nevada 12.5%
7 Idaho 12.3%
8 Massachusetts 10.4%
9 Arizona 9.9%
10 North Carolina 8.8%
N/A U.S. Average 6.1%
IndustryTrends &
Characteristics in Colorado
U.S. & Colorado: Growth in NonfarmPayroll Jobs
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES)
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Jan-
90Ja
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Jan-
92Ja
n-93
Jan-
94Ja
n-95
Jan-
96Ja
n-97
Jan-
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n-99
Jan-
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n-01
Jan-
02Ja
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Jan-
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Jan-
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U.S.
CO
Colorado’s Rate of Job Growth Over PastEight Years Among Fastest in Nation
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Year # of Payroll Jobs Added
Over the Year Growth Rate and Rank
2011 37,000 1.6% 9
2012 54,000 2.4% 4
2013 69,000 3.0% 4
2014 83,000 3.5% 3
2015 78,000 3.1% 5
2016 61,000 2.4% 12
2017 56,000 2.2% 6
2018* 65,000 2.4% 6
Total 503,000 22.6% 3***Estimate**Only Utah (28%) & Nevada (24%) have a higher rate of job growth since 2010
Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth Since 2010 (by Area)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Nov 2018, seasonally adjusted
Greeley
Fort Collins
DenverCO
Colorado Springs
Boulder
Grand JunctionPueblo
U.S.Non-Metro
CO
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Job Growth Uneven Across State Past 10 Years; 23 Counties Yet to Regain 2008 Emp. Levels
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) – Q2 2008 to Q2 2018
Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth Since 2010 (by Goods-Producing Industries)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Nov 2018, seasonally adjusted
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Mining & Logging
Construction
AllIndustries
Manufacturing
Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth Since 2010 (by Service-Providing Industries)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Nov 2018, seasonally adjusted
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Leisure &Hospitality
Information
AllIndustries
Trade,Transp., & Utilities
Prof. & Bus.Services
Government
Edu. &Health
Services
FinancialActivities
OtherServices
Colorado Industry Subsectors With Largest Absolute Gains in Employment Since 2010
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) – Q2 2010 to Q2 2018
13,207
16,692
18,342
20,302
22,769
24,686
36,607
42,217
56,470
56,661
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Construction of Buildings
Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods
Social Assistance
Hospitals
Administrative & Support Services
Educational Services
Specialty Trade Contractors
Ambulatory Health Care Services
Food Services & Drinking Places
Professional & Technical Services
62% of CO’s employmentgrowth has come fromthese 10 subsectors
+Green bar = high paying (>125% of 2018 Q2 AWW of $1075); blue bar = medium paying (75-125% of AWW); orange bar = low paying (<75% of AWW)
Projected Annual Average Growth Rates by Industry Supersectors (2019 – 2021*)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
1.0%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
2.1%
2.3%
2.3%
4.7%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Public Administration
Manufacturing
Other Services
Financial Activities
Leisure & Hospitality
Information
Trade, Transp., & Utilities
Edu. & Health Services
Total, All Industries
Prof. & Bus. Services
Nat. Resources & Mining
Construction
*Technically, the newest short-term projections (released 1/10/19) are for 1st quarter 2019 to 1st quarter 2021
Projected Fastest Annual Average Growth Rates by Industry Subsectors (2019 - 2021)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
3.0%
3.1%
3.2%
3.2%
3.5%
4.2%
5.1%
5.6%
6.3%
8.6%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises
Prof., Sci., & Technical Services
Real Estate
Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods
Subsector 518*
Specialty Trade Contractors
Construction of Buildings
Couriers and Messengers
Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction
Warehousing & Storage
*Internet Service Providers, Web Search Portals, and Data Processing Services
Colorado Substate Areas Used in 2 and 10-Year Projections
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Projected Annual Average Growth Rates by Colorado Substate Area (2019 - 2021)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
0.8%
1.3%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.1%
2.3%
2.3%
2.6%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
East. & South. CO
Pueblo
Northwest CO
Colorado Springs
Boulder
Grand Junction
Southwest CO
Colorado
Denver
Fort Collins
Greeley
Largest Projected Employment Gains by Industry Sector and Substate Area (2019 - 2021)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
Area Industry Sector ProjectedEmployment Change
Boulder Prof., Scientific, & Technical Services 1,580
Colorado Springs Prof., Scientific, & Technical Services 2,040
Denver Construction 10,590
Fort Collins Health Care & Social Assistance 1,460
Grand Junction Health Care & Social Assistance 710
Greeley Construction 1,380
Pueblo Health Care & Social Assistance 300
Eastern & Southern CO Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing/Hunting 230
Northwest CO Accommodation & Food Services 1,040
Southwest CO Construction 1,000
Post-Recession CO Wage Growth is a Mixed Bag – Depending on Year and Series Used
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; QCEW/CES; Consumer Price Index (CPI)
0.7%
3.8%
3.1%
2.6%
2.1%
0.8%
2.0%
4.6%
2.8%
3.4%
0.4%
3.8%
2.7%
0.6%
4.5%
3.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Change in Private Hourly Wage
Change in Private Average Weekly Wage
3.7%
1.9%
2.8%
OTY Change in CPI **
2.8%
1.2%
3.4%
2.7%
*2018 annual avg. private hourly wage thru November (CES); 2018 annual avg. private average weekly wage thru 2nd quarter (QCEW) **Over the year percentage change in annual consumer price index (all urban consumers) for Denver-Aurora-Lakewood
2.8%
Real CO Private Average Weekly Wage Growth of 2%+ Has Occurred Just 7 Times Since 1983
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) ; Consumer Price Index (CPI)
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001 20
0220
0320
0420
05 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 20
1520
1620
17 2018
*
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
* 2018 growth in private average weekly wage thru 2nd quarter (QCEW)
Colorado Has Experienced Fast Nominal Wage Growth Compared to Rest of U.S. in 2017-18
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; QCEW/CES
Top 10 States OTY Growth in 2017Private AWW
Washington 5.4%
West Virginia 5.0%
California 4.9%
Idaho 4.6%
Colorado 4.5%
Delaware 4.0%
New York 4.0%
Massachusetts 3.8%
Indiana 3.8%
Minnesota 3.7%
Top 10 States OTY Growth in 2018*Private Hourly Wage
Wyoming 6.1%
Hawaii 5.9%
West Virginia 5.4%
Wisconsin 5.0%
Colorado 4.6%
South Carolina 4.5%
Maryland 4.5%
Washington 4.1%
Michigan 3.9%
Vermont 3.7%*Annual avg. private hourly wage thru November (CES)
OccupationTrends &
Characteristics in Colorado
Colorado Employment in the Largest Occupations (2017 Estimates)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
40,580
41,420
41,560
44,300
46,480
49,340
50,270
58,910
63,770
86,720
0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000 90,000
Business Operations Specialists,All Other
Secretaries & Administrative Assistants,Except Legal, Medical, and Executive
General & Operations Managers
Office Clerks, General
Customer Service Representatives
Registered Nurses
Waiters and Waitresses
Cashiers
Combined Food Preparation and ServingWorkers, Including Fast Food
Retail Salespersons
20% of Coloradopayroll employment is classified in these10 occupations
+Peach bar = occupations that pay less than the 2017 median hourly wage of $19.66; blue bar pays more than the median hourly wage of $19.66
Colorado’s Highest Paying Occupations* That Don’t Require College Attendance
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
Occupational Title 2017 Employment Median Hourly Wage
Detectives & Criminal Investigators 1,750 $39.92
Electrical Power-Line Install & Repair 2,450 $39.12
Elevator Install & Repair 520 $37.92
Power Plant Operators 680 $35.73
Police & Sheriff’s Patrol Officers 9,440 $35.38
Claims Adjuster/Examiners/Investigators 3,950 $34.90
Wellhead Pumpers 620 $31.48Control & Valve Install & Repair, ex.
Mechanical Door 1,190 $30.22
Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, ex. Technical and Scientific Products 28,700 $29.97
Construction & Building Inspectors 2,280 $29.28*Does not include managers or supervisors; occupations with estimated employment of 500 or more in 2017
Colorado has the 5th Highest Concentration of STEM* Occupational Employment in U.S.
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
*STEM = computer/mathematical; architecture/engineering; life, physical, and social science; postsecondary teachers in aforementioned fields; managers of aforementioned fields; sales engineers; and sales representatives of technical and scientific products
Colorado’s Highest Paying Non-Management STEM Occupations
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
Occupational Title 2017 Employment Median Hourly Wage
Petroleum Engineers 1,410 $70.57
Sales Engineers 3,270 $59.43
Aerospace Engineers 2,370 $58.23
Materials Scientists 150 $56.75
Computer Hardware Engineers 3,630 $56.20
Software Developers, Systems 13,260 $55.34
Computer Network Architects 4,960 $53.07
Computer & Information Scientists 410 $51.42
Engineers, All Other 2,580 $50.43
Software Developers, Applications 27,210 $49.29
Colorado’s Highest Concentration Occupations* Relative to Rest of U.S. by Substate Area
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
Area Occupational Title Location Quotient
Boulder Physicists 39.32
Colorado Springs Religious Workers, All Other 11.66
Denver Mining & Geological Engineers 6.62
Fort Collins Conservations Scientists 28.78
Grand Junction Roustabouts, Oil & Gas 16.52
Greeley Service Unit Operators, Oil/Gas/Mining 30.51
Pueblo Telemarketers 10.69
Eastern & Southern CO Graders & Sorters, Agricultural Products 24.68
Northwest CO Grounds Maintenance Workers, All Other 17.25
Southwest CO Forest & Conservation Technicians 16.26*Occupations with estimated employment of 100 or more in 2017
Vast Majority of Projected Fastest Growing Occupations* in Construction (2019 - 2021)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
557
641
841
951
1,381
1,665
1,669
2,499
3,012
3,112
3,189
4,431
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Sheet Metal Workers
Roofers
HVAC Mechanics and Installers
Cement Masons & Concrete Finishers
Construction Managers
Plumbers, Pipefitters, & Steamfitters
Operating Engineers & Other Constr. Equip. Oper.
Supervisors of Construction and Extraction Workers
Electricians
Carpenters
Software Developers, Applications
Construction Laborers
Projected Annual Openings (2019-21)*Occupations with at least500 projected annual openings
Occupational Groups with Largest Projected Number of Annual Openings (2017 - 2027)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
12,437
14,261
13,472
19,157
19,938
18,841
19,257
45,522
45,562
49,094
3,043
2,004
3,010
3,242
2,838
3,950
5,096
4,111
4,321
5,969
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Management
Building and Grounds Cleaning andMaintenance
Education, Training, and Library
Personal Care and Service
Transportation and Material Moving
Business and Financial Operations
Construction and Extraction
Office and Administrative Support
Sales and Related
Food Preparation and Serving Related
Replacement Needs Growth
Over 10 year period,86% of Colorado’s annual openings in occupations will be due to transfers and exits
Projected Top Ten Fastest Growing Occupations* (2017 - 2027)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
33%
33%
33%
36%
39%
40%
40%
42%
53%
56%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Superv. of Const. & Extract. Workers
Market Research & Marketing Specialists
Registered Nurses
Nonfarm Animal Caretakers
Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters
Medical Assistants
Software Developers, Applications
Massage Therapists
Personal Care Aides
Home Health Aides
Projected Percent Change (2017-27)*Occupations with at least 1,000 projected annual openings
Summary• Colorado one of the top labor markets since Great
Recession: low unemployment, high labor force participation, fast employment growth, diverse & educated workforce
• Job gains have been uneven across the state, concentrated primarily in metro areas along the Front Range
• While most economic indicators have exceeded levels seen in mid-2000s expansion, there are a few that lag behind the 1990s expansion (involuntary part-time; prime-age participation; wage growth)
• We anticipate continued growth over the next 2 years, but at a slower rate
ContactInformation
• Email: [email protected]
• Work Phone: 303-318-8858
• LMI Website: www.colmigateway.com• CES: http://colmigateway.com/ces• LAUS: http://colmigateway.com/laus• QCEW: http://colmigateway.com/qcew• OES: http://colmigateway.com/oeswage• Short-term occupations: https://www.colmigateway.com/stop• Short-term industry: https://www.colmigateway.com/stip• Long-term occupations: http://colmigateway.com/occprj• Long-term industry: http://colmigateway.com/indprj
Ryan GedneySenior EconomistLabor Market Information, CDLE
Bonus Material for Industry Trends & Characteristics in Colorado
• Industry Concentration• Business Formation• Net Job Flows with Other States
Colorado’s Highest Concentration 6-Digit NAICS Industries* Relative to Rest of U.S.
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
6- Digit NAICS Description 2017 Employment Location Quotient
Skiing facilities 10,301 14.01
Geophysical surveying & mapping svcs. 1,633 6.24
Offices of misc. health practitioners 11,758 5.96
All other telecommunications 2,834 5.45
Blind and shade manufacturing 1,117 5.00
Breweries 5,601 4.53
Cattle feedlots 1,147 4.41
Natural gas extraction 2,750 4.01
Computer storage device manufacturing 1,301 4.01
Directory and mailing list publishers 1,192 3.33*Of industries with at least 1,000 employees in 2017
Colorado Has 7 Industry Sectors With High Concentrations of Employment vs. U.S.
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
Industry Sector Location Quotient LQ Rank
Mining 2.28 11
Information 1.41 4
Arts, entertainment, & recreation 1.33 5
Professional & technical services 1.32 4
Construction 1.30 5
Real estate & rental & leasing 1.28 4
Accommodation & food services 1.13 8
Only Two Other States Have Five Industry Sectors With Top 5 Location Quotient Ranks
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
New Business Formation Recovering From 2010 Low, But Still Well Below 1990s Rate
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Business Employment Dynamics (BDM)
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
CO
Share of Private SectorEstablishments That AreYounger Than 1 Year Old
U.S.
Share of Private Sector Establishments Younger Than 1 Year Old (1994)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Business Employment Dynamics (BDM)
Share of Private Sector Establishments Younger Than 1 Year Old (2018)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Business Employment Dynamics (BDM)
New Business Survivability Historically High, But Size of Survivors Halved Compared to 1990s
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Business Employment Dynamics (BDM)
80.2%
73.9%
81.1%7.3
3.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Blue Line (left axis) =Survival Rate of COPrivate Sector Establishments Born in Prior Year
Red Line (right axis) =Average EmploymentSize for Surviving CO Private Sector Establishments 1 Year After Birth
Colorado Net Job Flows With Other States Peaked in 2014, But Have Recently Improved
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Census Bureau; Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)/Job-to-job Explorer
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
24,000
27,00020
11 Q
4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
Col
orad
o N
et J
ob to
Job
Flo
w*
(Mov
ing
Four
Qua
rter
Tot
als)
*Excludes Alaska and South Dakota
Total Net Job Flows for Colorado (2014 Q3 to 2015 Q2)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Census Bureau; Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)/Job-to-job Explorer
Total Net Job Flows for Colorado (2016 Q3 to 2017 Q2)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Census Bureau; Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)/Job-to-job Explorer
Texas Case Study in Job to Job Flows –Currently Largest Contributor
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Census Bureau; Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)/Job-to-job Explorer
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,00020
11 Q
4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
Net
Job
to J
ob F
low
–TX
& C
O
(Mov
ing
Four
Qua
rter
Tot
als)
What are top sectors for those moving from TX to CO in 2017 Q2?#1 – Accommodation & Food Services#2 – Construction#3 – Admin. Support & Waste Mgmt.#4 – Retail Trade#5 – Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services
California Case Study in Job to Job Flows –Consistently One of Largest Contributors
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Census Bureau; Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)/Job-to-job Explorer
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
Net
Job
to J
ob F
low
–C
A &
CO
(Mov
ing
Four
Qua
rter
Tot
als)
What are top sectors for those moving from CA to CO in 2017 Q2?#1 – Accommodation & Food Services#2 – Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services#3 – Retail Trade#4 – Admin. Support & Waste Mgmt.#5 – Transportation & Warehousing
Washington Case Study in Job to Job Flows –Largest Net Drag on Job Flows with Colorado
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Census Bureau; Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)/Job-to-job Explorer
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
Net
Job
to J
ob F
low
–W
A &
CO
(Mov
ing
Four
Qua
rter
Tot
als)
What are top sectors for those moving from CO to WA in 2017 Q2?#1 – Retail Trade#2 – Accommodation & Food Services#3 – Admin. Support & Waste Mgmt.#4 – Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services#5 – Healthcare & Social Assistance
Arizona Case Study in Job to Job Flows –Now Net Drag on Job Flows with Colorado
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Census Bureau; Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)/Job-to-job Explorer
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,40020
11 Q
4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
Net
Job
to J
ob F
low
–AZ
& C
O(M
ovin
g Fo
ur Q
uart
er T
otal
s)
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
AZ &
CO
Net
Flo
w
(by
Age
Coh
ort)
22-3435-5414-21
55+