Denver Workforce Integration
Network Symposium
January 23, 2020
Metro Denver Labor Market
Trends and Projections
Ryan Gedney
Senior Economist
Labor Market Information, CDLE January 23, 2020
This presentation will be divided into four main sections:
1. Defining the Denver Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)
2. Labor market characteristics and trends for the Denver MSA
3. Net migration and job flow trends for the Denver MSA
4. Short-term (2019-21) industry and occupation projections for the Denver MSA
Role of Labor Market Information office:
• Work contractually with U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics to produce official BLS labor market
estimates for Colorado and sub-state areas
• These estimates are comparable to every
geographic region across the U.S. and across time
• We produce a lot of data, but some of the most
popular are for: nonfarm payroll jobs;
unemployment rate; occupational wages and
employment; and industry wages and employment
• We also generate short (2yr) and long-term (10yr)
projections by industry and occupation for
Colorado and sub-state areas
10 Counties Make Up the Denver MSA:
• Adams
• Arapahoe
• Broomfield
• Clear Creek
• Denver
• Douglas
• Elbert
• Gilpin
• Jefferson
• Park
Distribution of 2018 Employment, Businesses, &
Population by 10 Counties within Denver MSA
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Colorado State Demography Office
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Denver Arapahoe Jefferson Adams Douglas Broomfield Elbert Park ClearCreek
Gilpin
Share of employment
Share of businesses
Share of population
Of Those Who Live In Denver MSA & Also Work,
30% Are Employed Within Denver County
Denver MSA
County Live In
#1 County
Employed In
#2 County
Employed In
#3 County
Employed In
Denver County
Share
Adams Adams Denver Jefferson 25.6%
Arapahoe Arapahoe Denver Adams 29.7%
Broomfield Boulder Denver Adams 17.9%
Clear Creek Clear Creek Jefferson Denver 15.4%
Denver Denver Arapahoe Adams 45.3%
Douglas Arapahoe Douglas Denver 21.0%
Elbert Arapahoe Douglas Denver 14.7%
Gilpin Gilpin Boulder Jefferson 10.5%
Jefferson Jefferson Denver Arapahoe 25.8%
Park Jefferson Park Denver 13.8%
Total = 30.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, OntheMap county destination data for 2017 (all jobs)
Share of Colorado’s 2018 Employment,
Businesses, & Population within Denver MSA
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Colorado State Demography Office
55.9%
44.1%51.9%48.1%
51.5%48.5%
Employment Businesses
Population
Denver MSA Share
Rest of State Share
Share of Denver MSA 16+ Population by
Age Cohort
Source: Colorado State Demography Office
15.2%
12.4%
22.2%
19.2%
23.0%
18.7%17.9%
15.5%
21.8%
34.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1998 2008 2018 2028*
55+
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
16 to 24
*Forecast
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS); National Bureau of Economic Research
Unemployment Rates Historically Low in
Denver, Colorado, and the U.S.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
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Denver
MSA
U.S.
CO
Shaded area denotes
U.S. recession
Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Growth
Since 2010 (by Area)
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Nov 2019, seasonally adjusted
Greeley
Fort Collins
Denver
Colorado
CO Springs
Boulder
GrandJunction
Pueblo
U.S.
Non-Metro CO
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nonfarm Payroll Growth by Select Metro
Areas Since 2010
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Nov 2019, seasonally adjusted
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
U.S.
Austin
Nashville
Seattle
Denver
Boise
Portland
Salt Lake CityPhoenix
Distribution of Denver MSA Industry Employment
For 2nd Quarter 2019
IndustryQ2 2019
Employment
Share of
TotalIndustry
Q2 2019
Employment
Share of
Total
Total 1,517,600 N/A Wholesale Trade 73,900 4.9%
Healthcare & Social
Assistance185,300 12.2% Manufacturing 71,000 4.7%
Accommodation & Food
Services145,800 9.6%
Transportation &
Warehousing67,200 4.4%
Professional &
Technical Services145,800 9.6% Information 51,500 3.4%
Retail Trade 137,700 9.1% Other Services 47,500 3.1%
Educational Services 112,600 7.4%Management of
Companies34,100 2.2%
Construction 102,200 6.7%Arts, Entertainment, &
Recreation33,300 2.2%
Admin. & Support Svcs. 101,800 6.7%Real Estate, Rental, &
Leasing31,300 2.1%
Finance & Insurance 78,200 5.2% Mining 11,000 0.7%
Public Administration 75,200 5.0% Utilities 5,900 0.4%
Agriculture 4,300 0.3%
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), all ownerships
*Bolded industries are more highly concentrated in Denver MSA vs. U.S.
Denver MSA Industry Job Growth Since
2010Q2 (by Goods-Producing Industries)
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Agriculture
Manufacturing
Mining
All
Industries
Construction
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
Denver MSA Industry Job Growth Since
2010Q2 (by Large Service-Providing Industries)
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
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All
Industries
Professional & Technical Services
Healthcare & Social
Assistance
Accommodation &
Food Services
Admin. & Support
Services
Public
Administration
Retail Trade
Education Services
Finance &
Insurance
Denver MSA Industry Job Growth Since
2010Q2 (by Small Service-Providing Industries)
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
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All
Industries
Management of Companies
Transportation &
Warehousing
Real Estate, Rental,
& Leasing
Other Services
Arts, Entertainment,
& Recreation
Information
Wholesale Trade
Utilities
Denver MSA Annual Changes in Net Migration
and Population Over Past 30 Years (1988 – 2018)
Source: Colorado State Demography Office
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Annual change in population
= (births – deaths) + net migration
Annual change in net migration
(difference in those moving in
vs. those moving out)
Intro to Job-to-Job (J2J) Flows data:
• J2J is product from U.S. Census Bureau and their
Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program
• Rich set of job mobility statistics available at the
national, state, and metropolitan area levels
• Combines SSN-level wage & industry employment
data provided by LMI shops across U.S. with SSN-
level demographic information from Census Bureau
• Some highlights of J2J data include:
• Can be utilized as a proxy for analyzing
migration flows between various geographic
areas
• Contains useful industry, demographic (age, sex,
race/ethnicity), and earnings informationAdditional information on J2J is available at: https://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/#j2j and https://lehd.ces.census.gov/doc/j2j_101.pdf
J2J as Migration Proxy for Denver MSA:
• I analyzed aggregated counts of employed individuals
that flowed into and out of the Denver MSA from other
areas within and outside of Colorado [Net Job Flows]
• While these data represent a relatively small share of
overall employment activity in the Denver MSA, they
reveal some insightful trends
• Data caveats:
• Substantial lag – most recent data from Q1 2018
• Job flows only capture individuals with a short or
no nonemployment spell
• Charts in upcoming slides represent net flows on
a four-quarter moving basis, which removes
seasonal effects
Cities Denver Has Lost Most Workers To,
According to Oct ‘19 Linkedin Workforce Report
Source: Linkedin Workforce Report for Denver, October 2019 (https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/blog/linkedin-workforce-report-october-2019-denver-co)
Cities Denver Has Gained Most Workers From,
According to Oct ‘19 Linkedin Workforce Report
Source: Linkedin Workforce Report for Denver, October 2019 (https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/blog/linkedin-workforce-report-october-2019-denver-co)
Net Job-to-Job Flows Between Denver MSA
and Six Select Metro Areas [Negative Flows]
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Las Vegas
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Salt Lake City
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Seattle
*Vertical axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and other metro area, on a four-quarter moving basis (green = positive; red = negative)
**Horizontal axis represents the four-quarter moving period [e.g. 2018 Q1 captures the total net flow from 2nd quarter 2017 to 1st quarter 2018]
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, Job-to-Job Flows data
Net Job-to-Job Flows Between Denver MSA
and Six Select Metro Areas [Positive Flows]
*Vertical axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and other metro area, on a four-quarter moving basis (green = positive; red = negative)
**Horizontal axis represents the four-quarter moving period [e.g. 2018 Q1 captures the total net flow from 2nd quarter 2017 to 1st quarter 2018]
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, Job-to-Job Flows data
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Washington D.C.
Net Job-to-Job Flows Between Denver MSA
and Other Colorado Areas [Negative Flows]
*Vertical axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and other metro area, on a four-quarter moving basis (green = positive; red = negative)
**Horizontal axis represents the four-quarter moving period [e.g. 2018 Q1 captures the total net flow from 2nd quarter 2017 to 1st quarter 2018]
+Non-metro Colorado is an aggregation of every county in the state that is not part of a metropolitan statistical area (47 total counties)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, Job-to-Job Flows data
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Non-Metro Colorado+
Net Job-to-Job Flows Between Denver MSA
and Other Colorado Areas [Positive Flows]
*Vertical axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and other metro area, on a four-quarter moving basis (green = positive; red = negative)
**Horizontal axis represents the four-quarter moving period [e.g. 2018 Q1 captures the total net flow from 2nd quarter 2017 to 1st quarter 2018]
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, Job-to-Job Flows data
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Colorado Springs
-100
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Fort Collins
0
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150
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300
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Pueblo
Combined Net Job-to-Job Flows Between
Denver MSA and Other Colorado Areas
*Vertical axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and other CO areas, on a four-quarter moving basis (green = positive; red = negative)
**Horizontal axis represents the four-quarter moving period [e.g. 2018 Q1 captures the total net flow from 2nd quarter 2017 to 1st quarter 2018]
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, Job-to-Job Flows data
542 540
844 868
1,230
1,397
1,623
1,189 1,199
1,383
727
934
1,196
637
203
-398
-1,048
-539
-358
34
221
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
201
3 Q
1
201
3 Q
2
201
3 Q
3
201
3 Q
4
201
4 Q
1
201
4 Q
2
201
4 Q
3
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4 Q
4
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5 Q
1
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5 Q
2
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3
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4
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6 Q
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6 Q
2
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3
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6 Q
4
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7 Q
1
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7 Q
2
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7 Q
3
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7 Q
4
201
8 Q
1
Combined Net Job-to-Job Flows Between
Denver MSA and All Other U.S. Areas+
*Left axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and all other U.S. areas, on a four-quarter moving basis (green = positive; red = negative)
**Right axis represents share of combined net flows between Denver and select metros [black line = six positive metros; blue line adds Houston & L.A.]
***Horizontal axis represents the four-quarter moving period [e.g. 2018 Q1 captures the total net flow from 2nd quarter 2017 to 1st quarter 2018]
+All other U.S. areas = 372 metropolitan statistical areas and non-metro aggregated areas for 47 states (excludes AK, ME, and SD)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, Job-to-Job Flows data
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
201
3 Q
1
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2
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8 Q
1
Share below + Houston
and Los Angeles
Chicago, Dallas, Minneapolis,
New York, SF, D.C. share
Snapshot* of Net Job-to-Job Flows Between
Denver MSA and Other CO Areas, by Age Cohort
*Vertical axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and other CO areas, for Q2 2017 to Q1 2018 (green = positive; red = negative)
**Horizontal axis represents detailed age cohorts
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, Job-to-Job Flows data
176
-212
848
204
-364
-172
-288
12
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99
*Vertical axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and 12 select metro areas, for Q2 2017 to Q1 2018 (green = six positive flow metro areas
from prior slides; red = six negative flow metro areas from prior slides)
**Horizontal axis represents broader age cohorts
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, Job-to-Job Flows data
-4
-304
-120-188 -164
760
2,280
852
380280
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
Snapshot* of Net Job-to-Job Flows Between
Denver MSA and Select Metros, by Age Cohort
Six Negative Flow Metro Areas
Industry Sector Share of Four-Quarter Net Flow
Retail Trade 32%
Admin & Support Services 23%
Transportation & Warehousing 21%
Finance & Insurance 12%
Manufacturing 9%
Snapshot of Net Job-to-Job Flows Between
Denver MSA and Select Metros, by Industry*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, Job-to-Job Flows data
Six Positive Flow Metro Areas
Professional & Technical Svcs. 22%
Healthcare & Social Assistance 9%
Accommodation & Food Svcs. 8%
Information 7%
Construction 7%
*Reflects net flow by destination industry (e.g. the industry an individual ends up working in when they become employed in their new metro area),
for Q2 2017 to Q1 2018
Top Negative Flow Industries
Industry Sector Top Colorado Areas
Manufacturing Boulder; Greeley
Accommodation & Food Svcs. Non-Metro CO; Boulder
Healthcare & Social Assistance Boulder; Colorado Springs
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation Non-Metro CO
Retail Trade Colorado Springs; Grand Junction
Snapshot of Net Job-to-Job Flows Between
Denver MSA and Other CO Areas, by Industry*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, Job-to-Job Flows data
Top Positive Flow Industries
Admin & Support Services Boulder; Colorado Springs
Management of Companies Non-Metro CO; Colorado Springs
Transportation & Warehousing Colorado Springs; Boulder
Wholesale Trade Colorado Springs; Boulder
Finance & Insurance Boulder; Fort Collins
*Reflects net flow by destination industry (e.g. the industry an individual ends up working in when they become employed in their new metro area),
for Q2 2017 to Q1 2018
Labor Market Information Projections:
• Short-term released 2x a year (end of January; end of
July); long-term released once a year (end of July)
• Industry trends and occupational staffing patterns
within industries are key in determining projected
employment growth for Colorado and sub-state areas
• Demographic composition (e.g. aging workforce) is
also incorporated as part of this process (especially
for long-term projections)
• While we are aware of emerging workforce dynamics
like automation/AI, “gig” economy, and
education/skills requirements, LMI industry and
occupational projections are primarily based on
established trends
Largest Projected Employment Gains by
Industry Sector and Substate Area (2019 - 2021)
Area Industry SectorProjected
Employment Change
Boulder Prof., Scientific, & Technical Services 1,400 (27% of total)
Colorado Springs Health Care & Social Assistance 2,700 (25%)
Denver Health Care & Social Assistance 8,400 (15%)
Fort Collins Health Care & Social Assistance 1,300 (19%)
Grand Junction Health Care & Social Assistance 650 (26%)
Greeley Construction 900 (16%)
Pueblo Health Care & Social Assistance 300 (25%)
Eastern & Southern CO Health Care & Social Assistance 200 (25%)
Northwest CO Accommodation & Food Services 900 (18%)
Southwest CO Health Care & Social Assistance 500 (16%)
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
*Technical note: while LMI projections do include a self-employed estimate, that group has been removed from share of total industry calculations
Largest Projected Employment Gains by
Industry Sector for Denver MSA (2019 - 2021)
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
Industry SectorProjected
Employment Change
Share of Total
Projected Change
Total, All Industries 55,700 N/A
Health Care & Social Assistance 8,400 15.0%
Construction 7,600 13.6%
Professional & Technical Services 7,500 13.5%
Accommodation & Food Services 3,900 7.0%
Educational Services 3,900 7.0%
Transportation & Warehousing 3,800 6.8%
Retail Trade 3,000 5.4%
Management of Companies 2,600 4.7%
Admin & Support Services 2,200 3.9%
*Technical note: while LMI projections do include a self-employed estimate, that group has been removed from share of total industry calculations
Fastest Projected Annual Average Growth by
Denver Industry Subsector (2019 - 2021)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
2.7%
2.8%
2.8%
3.5%
3.5%
3.7%
3.8%
4.4%
4.4%
4.7%
7.4%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
Ambulatory Health Care Services
Support Activities for Transportation
Real Estate
Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
Specialty Trade Contractors
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Construction of Buildings
Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services
Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry
Couriers and Messengers
Warehousing and Storage
Average Growth Rate
for All Industries = 1.8%
LMI projected annual openings by occupation can be broken into
three parts:
1. Openings due to growth within industries occupations are
concentrated
2. Openings due to transfers between occupations, as workers
explore possible career choices – more common for younger cohorts
3. Openings due to exits out of the labor force, mainly due to
retirements – more common for older cohorts
Transfers and exits can combine to represent openings due to replacement needs
Denver – Total # of
Openings (2019-2021)
Openings Due
to Growth
Openings Due
to Transfers
Openings Due
To Exits
420,000
(210,000/year)
60,000
(30,000/year)
210,000
(105,000/year)
150,000
(75,000/year)
Share of Total Projected
Openings =>14% 50% 36%
Components of Projected Annual
Openings for Occupations
For more information on projections methodology, go to: www.bls.gov/emp/documentation/separations-faqs.htm
Largest Projected Annual Openings by Detailed
Occupation for Denver MSA (2019 - 2021)
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
Occupational TitleAnnual
Openings
Share of Openings Due
to Replacement Needs
Share of Total
Openings
Total, All Occupations 210,000 86% 21.5% [shown]
Combined Food Prep. & Serving
Workers, Including Fast Food7,400 90% 3.5%
Retail Salespersons 7,300 92% 3.5%
Waiters and Waitresses 6,200 94% 3.0%
Cashiers 5,900 98% 2.8%
Customer Services Reps 4,100 90% 2.0%
Laborers & Freight, Stock, and
Material Movers, Hand4,100 85% 1.9%
Business Operations Specialists,
All Other3,400 81% 1.6%
Office Clerks, General 3,400 93% 1.6%
Janitors and Cleaners 3,400 89% 1.6%
Fastest Projected Growth by Detailed
Occupation* for Denver MSA (2019 - 2021)
Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
Occupational TitleAnnual
Growth Rate
Annual
Openings
Share of Openings Due
to Replacement Needs
Home Health Aides 4.1% 1,590 74%
Software Developers, Applications 4.0% 1,850 62%
Plumbers, Pipefitters, Steamfitters 3.9% 790 73%
HVAC Mechanics & Installers 3.7% 510 72%
Roofers 3.6% 340 73%
Personal Care Aides 3.6% 2,600 80%
Cement Masons and Finishers 3.5% 440 76%
Industrial Truck/Tractor Operators 3.5% 1,070 76%
Sheet Metal Workers 3.5% 330 75%
Health Teachers, Postsecondary 3.4% 550 69%
Construction Supervisors 3.4% 1,380 74%
Marketing Specialists 3.4% 1,490 74%*Occupations with at least 200 projected annual openings; green highlight = exceeds 2018 Denver median wage for all occupations ($45,425)
Summary• Since 2010, the Denver MSA has added jobs at a faster rate
than the State and nearly twice as fast as the U.S.
• Primary industry drivers for Denver’s job growth have
been Professional & Technical Services; Health Care &
Social Assistance; Construction; and Accommodation &
Food Services.
• We expect those industries to continue to drive Denver’s
job growth over the long-term horizon.
• Denver continues to see an influx of job seekers from
larger, more expensive metros, but is experiencing an
outflow to certain metros in the Western U.S. that may be
smaller and/or cheaper to live in.
• However, trends indicate that the Denver MSA is still a
highly desirable location to work and live.
Contact
Information• Email: [email protected]
• Work Phone: 303-318-8858
• LMI Website: www.colmigateway.com
Ryan Gedney
Senior Economist
Labor Market Information, CDLE