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DESIGN OF A SUBNATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTION MODEL FOR ETHNIC GROUPS AND FOR DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
INTERNAL MIGRATION
Philip ReesBSPS Day Meeting on Population Projection, 29 February
2008London School of Economics and Political Science,
Houghton Street, London
ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032, What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group
population trends and projections for UK local areas
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Aims– To project the ethnic populations of local areas
(authorities) in the UK over the next 50 years (project)– To explain the model design being developed
(presentation)
Outline– State space of model– Accounting framework– Model structure– Internal migration model– Ethnic mortality estimation– Ethnic fertility estimation– New Migrant Databank – Feedback
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Source: Dunnell, K. (2007) The changing demographic picture of the UK: National Statistician’s annual article on the population. Population Trends 130, 9-21.
STATE SPACEZones (434) (O origins, D destinations)England 354 LAsWales 22 UAsScotland 32 CAsNorthern Ireland 26 DCsAges (102 period-cohorts) (A)Bto0, 0to1, 1to2, …, 99to100, 100+to101+ (102)Sexes (2) (S)Males, FemalesEthnic Groups (18) (E)15 from 2001 Census with
“White: Other White-CEE EU”“White: Other White-Other EU”“White: Other-Other”
Time intervals (flexible) (T)1981-1991-2001-2, … , 2005-6, 2006-7, …, 2050-51
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
COUNTRY POPULATION ACCOUNTS FOR EACH ETHNIC GROUPStandard period-cohort (w=x to x+1)
Age x+1 Destinations (state at end of time interval) Derived totals
Age x Country England Wales Scotland Northern
IrelandRest of World
Deaths/Non-survivors Totals
Internal out-migration totals Survivors
Number 1 2 3 4 ROrigins England 1 S11 M12 M13 M14 E1 D1 SP1 TOM1 S1
(state at start Wales 2 M21 S22 M23 M24 E2 D2 SP2 TOM2 S2
of interval) Scotland 3 M31 M32 S33 M34 E3 D3 SP3 TOM3 S3
Northern Ireland 4 M41 M42 M43 S44 E4 D4 SP4 TOM4 S4
Rest of World R I1 I2 I3 I4 0 0 I*
Totals FP1 FP2 FP3 FP4 E* D* T**
Internal in-migration totals TIM1 TIM2 TIM3 TIM4
To EnglandFrom Northern Ireland
White British
White Irish …
Chinese or other: other
Protestant Pp,wb Pp,wi … Pp,co
Catholic Pc,wb Pc,wi … Pc,co
Other Po,wb Po,wi … Po,co
Age
Time
x
x+1
x+2
t t+1
lx
lx+1
Survival probabilities and survivorship probabilities
Lx
Lx+1
sx
px
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
COUNTRY POPULATION ACCOUNTS FOR EACH ETHNIC GROUPStandard period-cohort (w=x to x+1)
Age x+1 Destinations (state at end of time interval) Derived totals
Age x Country England Wales Scotland Northern
IrelandRest of World
Deaths/Non-survivors Totals
Internal out-migration totals Survivors
Number 1 2 3 4 ROrigins England 1 S11 M12 M13 M14 E1 D1 SP1 TOM1 S1
(state at start Wales 2 M21 S22 M23 M24 E2 D2 SP2 TOM2 S2
of interval) Scotland 3 M31 M32 S33 M34 E3 D3 SP3 TOM3 S3
Northern Ireland 4 M41 M42 M43 S44 E4 D4 SP4 TOM4 S4
Rest of World R I1 I2 I3 I4 0 0 I*
Totals FP1 FP2 FP3 FP4 E* D* T**
Internal in-migration totals TIM1 TIM2 TIM3 TIM4
To EnglandFrom Northern Ireland
White British
White Irish …
Chinese or other: other
Protestant Pp,wb Pp,wi … Pp,co
Catholic Pc,wb Pc,wi … Pc,co
Other Po,wb Po,wi … Po,co
Accounting framework for zones within countries
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
DESTINATIONS England Wales ScotlandNorthern Ireland Rest of world Deaths Totals Survivors Total Out-Migrants, Immigrants, Final Populations
City of LondonBarking and Dagenham … Isle of Wight
Isle of Anglesey/Ynys Môn Gwynedd …
Cardiff/Caerdydd Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire : West Lothian Derry City Limavady : Belfast Start Populations
Total Survivors by origin
Total Survivors by origin within UK
Total Out-Migrants to
England
Total Out-Migrants to Wales
Total Out-Migrants to Scotland
Total Out-Migrants to Northern Ireland
ORIGINS Zone names Zones 1(1) 2(1) … N(1) 1(2) 2(2) … N(2) 1(3) 2(3) … N(3) 1(4) 2(4) … N(4) R D S S *(1) *(2) *(3) *(4)England City of London 1(1) S1(1)1(1) M1(1)2(1) … M1(1)N(1) M1(1)1(2) M1(1)2(2) … M1(1)N(2) M1(1)1(3) M1(1)2(3) … M1(1)N(3) M1(1)1(4) M1(1)2(4) … M1(1)N(4) E1(1) D1(1) SP1(1)*(*) S1(1) S1(1)UK TOM1(1)*(1) TOM1(1)*(2) TOM1(1)*(3) TOM1(1)*(4)
Barking and Dagenham 2(1) M2(1)1(1) S2(1)2(1) … M2(1)N(1) M2(1)1(2) M2(1)2(2) … M2(1)N(2) M2(1)1(3) M2(1)2(3) … M2(1)32(3) M2(1)1(1) M2(1)1(1) … M2(1)1(1) E2(1) D2(1) SP2(1)*(*) S2(1) S2(1)UK TOM2(1)*(1) TOM2(1)*(2) TOM2(1)*(3) TOM2(1)1(1)
: : : : … : : ; ; : ; ; : ; : : : : : :Isle of Wight N(1) MN(1)1(1) MN(1)2(1) … SN(1)N(1) MN(1)1(2) MN(1)2(2) … MN(1)N(2) MN(1)1(3) MN(1)2(3) … MN(1)N(3) MN(1)1(4) MN(1)2(4) … MN(1)N(4) EN(1) DN(1) SPN(1)*(*) SN(1) SN(1)UK TOMN(1)*(1) TOMN(1)*(2) TOMN(1)*(3) TOMN(1)*(4)
Wales Isle of Anglesey/Ynys Môn 1(2) M1(2)1(1) M1(2)2(1) … M1(2)N(1) S1(2)1(2) M1(2)2(2) … M1(2)N(2) M1(2)1(3) M1(2)2(3) … M1(2)N(3) M1(2)1(4) M1(2)2(4) … M1(2)N(4) E1(2) D1(2) SP1(2)*(*) S1(2) S1(2)UK TOM1(2)*(1) TOM1(2)*(2) TOM1(2)*(3) TOM1(2)*(4)
Gwynedd 2(2) M2(2)1(1) M2(2)2(1) … M2(2)N(1) M2(2)1(2) S2(2)2(2) … M2(2)N(2) M2(2)1(3) M2(2)2(3) … M2(2)N(4) M2(2)1(4) M2(2)2(4) … M2(2)N(4) E2(2) D2(2) SP2(2)*(*) S2(2) S2(2)UK TOM2(2)*(1) TOM2(2)*(2) TOM2(2)*(3) TOM2(2)*(4)
: : : : … : : : … : : : … : : : … : : : : : :Cardiff/Caerdydd N(2) MN(2)1(1) MN(2)2(1) … MN(2)N(1) MN(2)1(2) MN(2)2(2) … SN(2)N(2) MN(2)1(3) MN(2)2(3) … MN(2)N(3) MN(2)1(4) MN(2)2(4) … MN(2)N(4) EN(2) DN(2) SPN(2)*(*) SN(2) SN(2)UK TOMN(2)*(1) TOMN(2)*(2) TOMN(2)*(3) TOMN(2)*(4)
Scotland Aberdeen City 1(3) M1(3)1(1) M1(3)2(1) … M1(3)N(1) M1(3)1(2) M1(3)2(2) … M1(3)N(2) S1(3)1(3) M1(3)2(3) … M1(3)N(3) M1(3)1(4) M1(3)2(4) … M1(3)N(4) E1(3) D1(3) SP1(3)*(*) S1(3) S1(3)UK TOM1(3)*(1) TOM1(3)*(2) TOM1(3)*(3) TOM1(3)*(4)
Aberdeenshire 2(3) M2(3)1(1) M2(3)2(1) … M2(3)N(1) M2(2)1(2) M2(3)2(2) … M2(3)N(2) M2(3)1(3) S2(3)2(3) … M2(3)N(3) M2(3)1(4) M2(3)2(4) … M2(3)N(4) E2(3) D2(3) SP2(3)*(*) S2(3) S2(3)UK TOM2(3)*(1) TOM2(3)*(2) TOM2(3)*(3) TOM2(3)*(4)
: : : : … : : : … : : : … : : : … : : : : : :West Lothian N(3) MN(3)1(1) MN(3)2(1) … MN(3)N(1) MN(3)1(2) MN(3)2(2) … MN(3)N(2) MN(3)1(3) MN(3)2(3) … SN(3)N(3) MN(3)1(4) MN(3)2(4) … MN(3)N(4) EN(3) DN(3) SPN(3)*(*) SN(3) SN(3)UK TOMN(3)*(1) TOMN(3)*(2) TOMN(3)*(3) TOMN(3)*(4)
Northern Ireland Derry City 1(4) M1(4)1(1) M1(4)2(1) … M1(4)N(1) M1(4)1(2) M1(4)2(2 … M1(4)N(2) M1(4)1(3) M1(4)2(3) … M1(4)N(3) S1(4)1(4) M1(4)2(4) … M1(4)N(4) E1(4) D1(4) SP1(4)*(*) S1(4) S1(4)UK TOM1(4)*(1) TOM1(4)*(2) TOM1(4)*(3) TOM1(4)*(4)
Limavady 2(4) M2(4)1(1) M2(4)2(1) … M2(4)N(1) M2(4)1(2) M2(4)2(2) … M2(4)N(2) M2(4)1(3) M2(4)2(3) … M2(4)N(3) M2(4)1(4) S2(4)2(4) … M2(4)N(4) E2(4) D2(4) SP2(4)*(*) S2(4) S2(4)UK TOM2(4)*(1) TOM2(4)*(2) TOM2(4)*(3) TOM2(4)*(4)
: : : : … : : : … : : : … : : : … : : : : : : :Belfast N(4) MN(4)1(1) MN(4)2(1) … MN(4)N(1) MN(4)1(2) MN(4)2(2) … MN(4)N(2) MN(4)1(3) MN(4)2(3) … MMN(4)N(3) MN(4)1(4) MN(4)2(4) … SN(4)N(4) EN(4) DN(4) SPN(4)*(*) SN(4) SN(4)UK TOMN(4)*(1) TOMN(4)*(2) TOMN(4)*(3) TOMN(4)*(4)
Rest of world Immigrants R I1(1) I2(1) … IN(1) I1(2) I2(2) … IN(2) I1(3) I2(3) … IN(3) I1(4) I2(4) … IN(4) 0 0 I*(*) 0 0 I*(1) I*(2) I*(3) I*(1)
Totals Populations * FP*(*)1(1) FP*(*)2(1) FP*(*)N (1) FP*(*)1(2) FP*(*)2(2) FP*(*)N(2) FP*(*)1(3) FP*(*)2(3) … FP*(*)N(3) FP*(*)1(4) FP*(*)2(4) … FP*(*)N(4) E* D* T*(*)*(*) S* S*UK FP*(*)*(1) FP*(*)*(2) FP*(*)*(3) FP*(*)*(4)
Transitions zones Total In-migrants to England Total In-migrants to Wales Total In-migrants to Scotland Total In-migrants to Northern Ireland
Total emigrants by country
Total deaths by country
Total start population by country
Total Survivors by destination
Total Survivors by destination within UK Total intra- and inter-country migrants
Total In-migrants Total In-Migrants from England *(1) TIM*(1)1(1) TIM*(1)2(1) TIM*(1)N(1) TIM*(1)1(2) TIM*(1)2(2) … TIM*(1)N(2) TIM*(1)1(3) TIM*(1)2(3) … TIM*(1)N(3) TIM*(1)1(4) TIM*(1)2(4) … TIM*(1)N(4) E*(1) D*(1) SP*(1)*(*) S*(1) S*(1)UK M*(1)*(1) M*(1)*(2) M*(1)*(3) M*(1)*(4)
Total In-Migrants from Wales *(2) TIM*(2)1(1) TIM*(2)2(1) TIM*(2)N(1) TIM*(2)1(2) TIM*(2)2(2) TIM*(2)N(2) TIM*(2)1(3) TIM*(2)2(3) TIM*(2)N(3) TIM*(2)1(4) TIM*(2)2(4) TIM*(2)N(4) E*(2) D*(2) SP*(2)*(*) S*(2) S*(2)UK M*(2)*(1) M*(2)*(2) M*(2)*(3) M*(2)*(4)
Total In-Migrants from Scotland *(3) TIM*(3)1(1) TIM*(3)2(1) TIM*(3)N(1) TIM*(3)1(2) TIM*(3)2(2) TIM*(3)N(2) TIM*(3)1(3) TIM*(3)2(3) TIM*(3)N(3) TIM*(3)1(4) TIM*(3)2(4) TIM*(3)N(4) E*(3) D*(3) SP*(3)*(*) S*(3) S*(3)UK M*(3)*(1) M*(3)*(2) M*(3)*(3) M*(3)*(4)
Total In-Migrants from Northern Ireland *(4) TIM*(4)1(1) TIM*(4)2(1) TIM*(4)N(1) TIM*(4)1(2) TIM*(4)2(2) TIM*(4)N(2) TIM*(4)1(3) TIM*(4)2(3) TIM*(4)N(3) TIM*(4)1(4) TIM*(4)2(4) TIM*(4)N(4) E*(4) D*(4) SP*(4)* S*(4) S*(4)UK M*(4)*(1) M*(4)*(2) M*(4)*(3) M*(4)*(4)
Key to cell colours surviving stayers surviving emigrants final populations
surviving migrants within country deaths survivors
surviving migrants between countries start populations immigrants
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
populations fertility mortality Internal migration
International migration
survival
emigration
migration conditional on
survival within UK
immigration
Mortality assumptions
Emigration assumptions
Internal migration assumptions or
model
Immigration assumptions
Projected deaths, survivors
Projected surviving emigrants
Projected surviving internal migrants
final populations
Projected surviving immigrants
Projected final populations and births
Fertility assumptions
births
Projection outputs
Initial database
scenarios
Ethnic mortality: proposed estimation method1. LA life tables and LA SMRs for whole population2. 2001 Census SIRS for whole population3. Compute SMR = ac + bc SIR for c=England, Wales,
Scotland and Northern Ireland LAs4. 2001 Census SIRs for ethnic groups for LAs5. 2001 ethnic SMRe = ac + bc SIRe
6. dea (1) = d*
a SMRe
7. dea (2) = de
a (1) × [D*a /Σe de
a (1)Pea ]
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Internal migration modelSomething between a rock (saturated)
O434 D434 E18 S2 A102 and a hard place (independence)
O434 + D434 + E18 + S2 +A102
such as A102S2 + O434D434E7 + E18
age-sex + origin-age, origin-destination-broad ethnicity + detailed ethnicity
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
New Migrant DatabaseCensusNiNOWRSNHSPLASC
With Country of origin to Ethnicity conversion
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
We have been working on/will work on:Model design/program writingInitial database/completion and
harmonisationEthnic mortality/full implementationNew migrant database/integration and
synthesisEthnic fertility/use of GHS and LS
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT