David Ashwell
Matthew Ogonowski
Seiha Neou
Callum McCulloch
CENTER FOR CLEAN AIR POLICY ECO SYSTEMS INITIATIVE ECONOMIC INSTITUTE OF CAMBODIA
April 2011
Assisting Cambodian Policymakers with
Designing REDD Plus Approaches under a Post-
2012 International Climate Change Policy
Framework
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared by Mr. David Ashwell, Mr. Matthew Ogonowski of the Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP), Mr. Seiha Neou of the Economic Institute of Cambodia (EIC), and Mr. Callum McCulloch, with the support of the Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC). The authors would like to thank HE Dr. Mok Mareth, Senior Minister and Minister for the Environment, for his support in undertaking the assessment. HE Thuk Kroeun Vutha, Secretary of State for the Ministry of Environment responsible for Climate Change, provided guidance on arrangements for working with the Ministry’s Cambodian Climate Change Department (CCD) and other government agencies. Dr. Tin Ponlok, Mr. Sum Thy and Mr. Chea Chanthou of the CCD provided ongoing support to the assessment in the form of additional guidance, liaison with other government agencies and the Interim REDD+ Taskforce. Staff of the CCD also took full responsibility for the organization of the kick-off and final project workshops in March 2009 and June 2010. The work also benefited from the discussions and views expressed by participants at the final project workshop in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. We would also like to thank Dr. Madhurjya Kumar Dutta for the support of the Economic Institute of Cambodia (EIC) and for coordination of the economic analysis. Mr. Paul Gager (Aruna Technologies) and Mr. Choun Phirom (FFI) undertook GIS mapping and analyses. The authors would also like to thank Mr. Andrew McNaughton (Mekong Rain Natural Foods Co. Ltd), Ms. Lesley Perlman (Wildlife Alliance), Ms. Amanda Bradley (PACT), Mr. Frank Momberg (FFI), Mr. Tom Clements (WCS), Mr. Graeme Brown, Mr. Khou Eang Hourt, Mr. Jeremy Broadhead (FAO), Mr. Marcus Hardtke, Dr. Supote Senphon, Ms. Vittoria Elliot (Frontier), and Mr. Khim Lay (UNDP) for the support, comments and information provided. The assistance of Wildlife Alliance in the facilitation of field visits is also much appreciated. The authors also wish to express their gratitude to CCAP, the main sponsor of this report, and especially to Mr. Ned Helme, Mr. William Whitesell, Ms. Sally Schlichting, Ms. Diana Movius, Mr. Anmol Vanamali and Ms. Saba Raza. The authors would like to thank Øyvind Dahl and the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) for their generous financial support for the project. For avoidance of any doubt and for the purpose of clarity, the authors wish to state that this report is based on an independent study, and the contents of the report reflect their views and not necessarily the views of the Cambodian or Norwegian governments. The Eco Systems Initiative kindly provided supplementary financial support for Mr. Ashwell. The report has been shared for comment with the Royal Government of Cambodia, but the results have not been peer reviewed and are subject to further refinement. Citation: Ashwell, D.A., Ogonowski, M., Neou, S. and McCulloch, C. (2010) Assisting Cambodian Policymakers with Designing REDD Plus Approaches under a Post-2012 International Climate Change Policy Framework. Center for Clean Air Policy, the Eco Systems Initiative and the Economic Institute of Cambodia. CCAP Forestry and Climate Change Program Report. Washington, D.C.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................... v 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. International REDD Policy and Project Background .................................................... 1 1.2. Project Focus, Approach and Methodology ................................................................ 3 1.3. Report Structure ......................................................................................................... 4
2. Cambodia’s Forests and Climate Change ........................................................................... 6 2.1. Development Context ................................................................................................. 6 2.2. Cambodia’s Forests .................................................................................................... 7 2.3. Cambodia’s Protected Areas System ........................................................................10
3. Case Study Overview.........................................................................................................20 3.1. Objectives and Approach ...........................................................................................20 3.2. Selection of Case Study Area ....................................................................................21 3.3. The Coastal Hinterlands Case Study Landscape .......................................................23 3.4. Target Area ...............................................................................................................25
4. Historical, Current and Potential Carbon Stock Estimates ..................................................27 4.1. Objectives and Approach ...........................................................................................27 4.2. Source Data and Calculations ...................................................................................27 4.3. Methods for Estimating Carbon Stocks ......................................................................31 4.4. Results of Carbon Stock Estimates ............................................................................32
5. Deforestation Baseline .......................................................................................................35 5.1. Objectives and Approach ...........................................................................................35 5.2. Methodology ..............................................................................................................35 5.3. Results ......................................................................................................................37
6. Opportunity Cost Analysis of Alternative Land Uses ..........................................................42 6.1. Overview of Study Crops in Cambodia ......................................................................42 6.2. Methods for Economic Analysis .................................................................................47 6.3. Summary of Results: Opportunity Costs of Study Crops ............................................49 6.4. Policy Implications .....................................................................................................50 6.5. Sensitivity of Analysis ................................................................................................51
7. The Cost of REDD in the Koh Kong Target Area................................................................52 7.1. Approach and Methods ..............................................................................................52 7.2. Results - Net Present Value .......................................................................................52
8. Policy Blueprint: Protected Areas and REDD Plus in Cambodia ........................................55 8.1. Purpose .....................................................................................................................55 8.2. Principles for a Policy Framework ..............................................................................55 8.3. Policy Elements .........................................................................................................55 8.4. Barriers and Challenges ............................................................................................59 8.5. Potential Co-Benefits .................................................................................................59 8.6. Implementation Guidance ..........................................................................................60
9. Policy Blueprint: Enhancement of Carbon Stocks through Forest Rehabilitation ................64 9.1. Quantitative Analysis .................................................................................................64 9.2. Policy Discussion .......................................................................................................64 9.3. Barriers and Implementation Guidance ......................................................................65
10. National and International Implications of Cambodia Analysis .......................................68 10.1. Capacity ....................................................................................................................68 10.2. Policy .........................................................................................................................69 10.3. Baselines ...................................................................................................................71 10.4. Scale .........................................................................................................................72
References ...............................................................................................................................74
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Annex I: Summary Report of the Final Workshop ......................................................................78 Annex II: Forest Degradation in Cambodia. ...............................................................................85 Annex III: Components of Biomass for Each Forest Type .........................................................87 Annex IV: Forest Cover Classification .......................................................................................88
FIGURES
Figure 1: Cambodia’s national protected area system ..............................................................11 Figure 2: Case study area and target area ...............................................................................23 Figure 3: Vegetation profiles for heath and well stocked evergreen forests ..............................25 Figure 4: Location of FAO’s Forest Survey of Lowlands West of the Cardamom Mountains ....28 Figure 5: Pre-logging carbon stocks by habitat type (tons/ha) ..................................................33 Figure 6: Changes in non-forest in the eastern and western sectors ........................................38 Figure 7: Forest and non-forest area statements for the eastern and western sectors .............39 Figure 8: Cultivated area and production of soybean in Cambodia ...........................................43 Figure 9: Cultivated area and production of maize in Cambodia ..............................................44 Figure 10: Cultivated area and production of sugarcane in Cambodia .....................................45 Figure 11: Cultivated area and production of rubber in Cambodia ............................................46 Figure 12: 2010 net present value of return on investment .......................................................49 Figure 13: 2010 net present value of return on investment (NRI) per hectare ..........................50 Figure 14: Potential coordination arrangements in support of a national REDD Plus program .63 Figure A.II-1: Forest areas subject to degradation (2002) .........................................................85 Figure A.II-2: BPAMP model of forest impact categories ...........................................................86
TABLES Table 1: Summary statistics for Cambodia's protected area system .........................................12 Table 2: Protected area status and impact levels .....................................................................14 Table 3: Policy documents relevant to protected area planning and development ....................15 Table 4: Estimated carbon reserves in protected areas by region ............................................19 Table 5: Scoring of potential case study areas .........................................................................22 Table 6: Pre-war area statements of forest types .....................................................................24 Table 7: Soil and forest types for the target area ......................................................................26 Table 8: Ratios of above and below ground biomass to stem dry weight..................................29 Table 9: Steps, data and conversion factors for calculating forest biomass ..............................30 Table 10: Conversion factors for calculating forest carbon and CO2 equivalent ........................30 Table 11: Pre-logging biomass and carbon estimates by forest type for the case study area ...32 Table 12: Carbon estimates for original forest and post-logging models...................................34 Table 13: Carbon available for credit for differing baseline and deforestation rates ..................40 Table 14: Annual value of credit annually for two baselines and deforestation rates ................40 Table 15: Maximum yields for study crops ...............................................................................48 Table 16: Net present value per hectare for the target area .....................................................52 Table 17: Total opportunity cost for the target area (million $) ..................................................53 Table 18: Average cost per ton carbon preserved ($/ton CO2e) ...............................................53
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AADR Average annual deforestation rate AAER Average annual emissions rate ADB Asian Development Bank BAU Business-as-usual scenario BPAMP Biodiversity and Protected Areas Management Project CBD Convention on Biological Diversity CBNRM Community Based Natural Resource Management CBO Community Based Organization CCAP Center for Clean Air Policy CCD Climate Change Department (Cambodia) CDF Commune Development Fund CDM Clean Development Mechanism CFA Community Forestry Area CfiA Community Fisheries Area CLUP Commune Land Use Plans CMDG Cambodia’s Millennium Development Goals COM Council of Ministers CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent CPA Community Protected Area FA Forestry Administration FAD Dialogue on Future Actions to Address Global Climate Change EIC Economic Institute of Cambodia EU European Union FAO Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations FCPF World Bank Forest Carbon Partnership Facility FFI Flora and Fauna International GDANCP General Department of Administration for Nature Conservation and
Protection GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse gas Gt Gigatons IFSR Independent Multi-stakeholder Forest Sector Review IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature masl Meters above sea level MAFF Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries M&E Monitoring and Evaluation Framework MDG Millennium Development Goals MIME Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy MLMUPC Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction MOI Ministry of Interior MoE Ministry of Environment MRV Measurement, Reporting and Verification NCCC National Climate Change Committee NCDD National Committee for Decentralization and Deconcentration NFP National Forest Programme NGO Non-Governmental Organization NPACCRC National Protected Area Consultative and Conflict Resolution Committee NPASMP National Protected Areas Strategic Management Plan NPV Net present value NRI Net present value of return on investment
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NTFP Non-timber forest product PAD Protected Areas and Development Review PDE Provincial Departments of Environment PLUP Participatory Land Use Planning RAPPAM Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Area Management REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation RGC Royal Government of Cambodia SLM Sustainable Land Management SUZ Sustainable Use Zone TRAFFIC Trade Records Analysis of Flora and Fauna in Commerce TWG Technical Working Group UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UN-REDD United Nations Collaborative initiative on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and
forest Degradation (REDD) in developing countries WA Wildlife Alliance WCS Wildlife Conservation Society
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. International REDD Policy and Project Background
In the discussions on the development of a new international climate policy structure for the post-2012 period, the issue of addressing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation has emerged as one of the key topics. The land-use change and forestry (LUCF) sector is a significant contributor to global GHG emissions, accounting for some 15% to 20% of net emissions annually, most of which occur in developing countries. Beyond the climate-warming impact of these emissions, however, deforestation is an unsustainable activity that brings harm to the well-being of people, the environment and the health of national and local economies. It has damaged the cultural and economic livelihood of local communities and indigenous peoples in many countries, and has led to declines in biodiversity in many of the world’s forest ecosystems. Deforestation also contributes directly to local and regional climate change through changes in rainfall, local temperatures and other factors such as loss of soil moisture that also affect food production. The design of a mechanism to support actions for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD1) in developing countries has become one of the most important areas of negotiation under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris/Oslo REDD+ Partnership launched following the Copenhagen Accord. At the same time, efforts to implement REDD pilot projects and test potential REDD policies and programs on the ground in developing countries have been undertaken by a range of organizations, including the World Bank’s FCPF, UN-REDD, and NGOs such as the Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP). The successful implementation and coordination of these top-down and bottom-up efforts will be crucial to the achievement of REDD worldwide in reducing GHG emissions, and in promoting important co-benefits such as local and community development, the promotion of gender equity and the rights of indigenous peoples, and the protection of biodiversity. REDD must also integrate sub-national programs into a single national program, so that both work in complementary fashion in support of effective national carbon accounting and other objectives required to realize REDD benefits. In our REDD work over the past three years, CCAP has identified key areas and gaps in current understanding where additional work is needed if REDD is to succeed. First, while a number of useful pilot projects are being developed to build capacities, test specific policies and develop and refine carbon accounting methods, there is an urgent need to expand the analysis of policy implementation as distinct from technical issues, and to develop complementary administrative and governance structures to integrate pilots with national REDD programs and ensure the involvement of local communities and indigenous groups. Second, while national programs are essential, such REDD policies must be designed and carbon payments and other incentives distributed to convince local actors of the value of REDD and the need to continue forest preservation activities over the long term. Third, mechanisms being developed at the international, national and sub-national levels for reducing deforestation, promoting local development, implementing measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) and distributing carbon payments must be harmonized, and the lessons learned shared with policymakers and
1 This report uses the term “REDD” to refer to a broad suite of topics covered in international discussions of reducing
GHG emissions from forest loss and degradation, and “REDD Plus” or “REDD+” to refer to the current proposals to integrate forest conservation or stock maintenance into a REDD framework and their application in the Cambodian context.
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stakeholders at all levels. Finally, in-country capacity must be developed and built to enable -- and encourage -- the countries themselves to carry out REDD sustainably and contribute to the above goals. It is from this perspective that CCAP, a climate change and environmental policy think tank based in Washington, DC, launched its expanded Forestry and Climate Change Program in 2008 with support from the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation’s (Norad) International Climate and Forest Initiative. The goal of our program is to promote the development of effective and robust policy and institutional designs for REDD at the international, national and sub-national levels. CCAP is working with local research and government partners in three key developing countries with forest-related emissions -- Indonesia, Cambodia and Mexico -- to help national and local governments design policies and institutional mechanisms for REDD implementation. In addition, CCAP’s work at the international level explores potential support structures for REDD financing and capacity building through the UNFCCC, the REDD+ Partnership, and other sources. CCAP also provides specific recommendations to the United States government to help ensure the effectiveness and environmental integrity of the REDD support provisions included in potential US climate legislation. By conducting in-country case studies that are representative of the range of local environmental and economic circumstances, CCAP and its national partners identify and research the information needed to formulate REDD frameworks from the ground up that meet national REDD goals while also achieving local goals for sustainable development, ensuring indigenous peoples rights, protecting biodiversity and alleviating poverty. Through iterative top-down and bottom-up analyses and dialogue, CCAP’s program will develop plans that each participating country can follow as they implement REDD within their borders. The results and lessons from CCAP’s on-the-ground work are then used to inform the structure of a future international REDD framework and the associated financing process to support countries in their REDD goals. To ensure that these results feed into a wide range of climate policy discussions, CCAP presents the results at in-country stakeholder workshops (see Annex I) and consultations, sessions of the UNFCCC negotiations and other forums. It is through this process that the CCAP Forestry and Climate Change Program will contribute to the ultimate goal of reducing deforestation in ways that deliver not only meaningful reductions in carbon emissions to the Earth’s atmosphere, but also enhance the livelihoods of forest dependent communities, support low-carbon economic development, promote gender equality and the rights of indigenous peoples, protect biodiversity and achieve other co-benefits. An important foundation of this project is that it links directly with international climate change negotiations through CCAP’s Dialogue on Future Actions to Address Global Climate Change – the Future Actions Dialogue, or FAD. The FAD brings together key negotiators from over 30 developing and developed countries several times each year in an informal, off-the-record setting to discuss options for the future of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012. The Dialogue has a distinguished track record of success in many areas, such as the design of the CDM, options for REDD financing, and sectoral programs for industrial GHG mitigation. An integral part of CCAP’s work includes presentation and discussion of results from this and other projects at FAD sessions, where REDD has been a key focus, as well as at events and consultations held at UNFCCC meetings. The analyses conducted in Indonesia, Cambodia and Mexico will thus help international climate policymakers understand the issues related to reducing emissions and potential REDD Plus actions in developing countries.
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In February 2009, in partnership with the Cambodia’s Ministry of Environment, CCAP and David Ashwell of the Eco Systems Initiative launched the project Assisting Cambodian Policymakers with Designing REDD Plus Approaches under a Post-2012 International Climate Change Policy Framework. This project aims to develop strategies Cambodia can utilize to reduce its deforestation and associated GHG emissions and participate in global REDD markets and programs, potentially with assistance from the international climate change community. The Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC) has set a target of retaining 60 percent forest cover through at least 2015, but the rapid pace of post-war development provides significant challenges to achieving this goal. This report summarizes the results of the first phase of the CCAP Cambodia REDD project, completed in June 2010. The project and this report were funded through a generous grant from Norad.
1.2. Project Focus, Approach and Methodology
The project focuses on how the emerging international framework for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, conservation, the sustainable management of forests and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD Plus) in developing countries under the UNFCCC can best be implemented in Cambodia (see Box 1 for an introduction to REDD Plus). CCAP’s work is based upon discussions and consultations with key government agencies, notably the Ministry of Environment (MoE), CCAP’s government partner, and with other agencies involved with land and natural resource management. The project seeks to contribute to the design of a national REDD Plus strategy in Cambodia through the current process for developing a REDD Readiness Plan and other government initiatives. It also seeks to identify the lessons learned here and their implications for the developing international context within the UNFCCC, international REDD forums and other developing countries. The international framework for REDD Plus in developing countries under the UNFCCC calls for national-level carbon accounting. Reducing deforestation under such a national system will however require efforts at the sub-national levels (province, district, local, etc.). A key theme of this project therefore is the use of a bottom-up strategy, in which sub-national analyses are conducted to inform the development of an integrated national-level REDD Plus strategy by the RGC. A series of case studies that illuminate an array of issues relating to REDD Plus is planned. This will help ensure that the emerging REDD Plus system in Cambodia maintains national-level accounting, while still being responsive to sub-national circumstances and needs. This report presents the results of the first case study. The first phase of CCAP’s Cambodia work was launched in early 2009 with support from Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation. A kick-off workshop was held in Phnom Penh with the MoE, Forestry Administration (FA) and other government agencies in March 2009. The project’s focus on the opportunity costs of alternative land use was identified and designed with government input and consultation, and an interdisciplinary team was formed to provide project management, REDD Plus policy analysis, in-country coordination, forest and carbon analysis and econometric analysis. The centerpiece of the current analysis is a case study of the opportunity costs for alternative land uses. The goals of this study are to:
Provide the RGC with key information needed for REDD Plus implementation, as identified through consultation with MoE and other stakeholders.
Build in-country capacity to conduct bottom-up analysis of REDD Plus policy and costs.
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Provide a case study of REDD Plus implementation in one key carbon-rich forest region that can be replicated to inform REDD Plus actions/plans in other areas.
Enhance the understanding of current trends in international REDD and climate policy and their implications for Cambodia amongst key Cambodian stakeholders
Inform international REDD Plus policy design with lessons from Cambodia. The approach used in addressing these goals is to:
Select an appropriate forested landscape -- Cambodia’s coastal hinterlands -- as a case study area for establishing a carbon stock estimate and a deforestation baseline, which includes a target area for the opportunity costs analysis.
Develop estimates for historical and current carbon stocks for the case study area.
Develop a historical deforestation baseline in the case study area, and identify the implications of future deforestation and emission trends for REDD Plus policy in the area.
Estimate the carbon stocks and the opportunity costs of alternative agricultural land uses for a target area within the case study area.
Utilize the carbon and opportunity cost analyses to evaluate the costs and benefits of potential REDD Plus measures.
Develop two REDD Plus policy blueprints on protected areas and enhancement of carbon stocks through forest rehabilitation that are appropriate for Cambodia.
The project team was led by Matthew Ogonowski as the overall project manager and David Ashwell as the project’s in-country coordinator. The Economic Institute of Cambodia (EIC) and Matthew Ogonowski conducted the analysis of opportunity costs while David Ashwell and Callum McCulloch conducted the carbon content analysis. David Ashwell also headed the policy design for protected areas and (with Mathew Ogonowski) the enhancement of carbon stocks. Matthew Ogonowski evaluated the national and international policy implications of the results. Another key aspect of the CCAP Cambodia Study is its capacity building benefits. These include the training of in-country consultants in econometric analysis and the development and testing of models, training of project team in linking forest management with REDD Plus, and the execution of standard climate change analysis based on the integration of biology, forest ecology, economics, statistics and the formulation of policy blueprints. A major achievement of this project is that the in-country team now has the capacity to design a bottom-up REDD Plus strategy for all of Cambodia‟s forests. The project also contributed to expanding the understanding among government agencies of international climate and REDD Plus policy, through participation of key Cambodian government officials in CCAP’s Future Actions Dialogue (FAD) and its consultations with them at UNFCCC meetings leading up to COP 15 in 2009. Finally, outputs of the study were used by RGC officials from the Ministry of Environment to inform the Cambodian Readiness Plan on REDD+ (Cambodia REDD+ Roadmap) being formulated with the assistance of UNDP and UN-REDD, and have had a significant impact on the outcomes of that process.
1.3. Report Structure
This report consists of three chapter groups. The first describes the background to the project along with introductions to Cambodia’s forest sector and its protected areas. The second group of chapters presents a case study concerning the relative value of forest carbon stocks and the
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opportunity costs of alternative agricultural land uses within the coastal hinterland landscape. The third group of chapters focuses on the development of two policy blueprints for REDD Plus in Cambodia’s protected areas and enhancement of carbon stocks, along with an analysis of the national and international policy implications of the study.
Box 1: A REDD Plus Primer Regardless of the design of any REDD component under the future climate change architecture, emissions reductions will only occur if participating developing countries can pinpoint the root causes of their forest loss and degradation, and develop policies and measures and implementation strategies that will be effective in combating them. Thus, the key goals of REDD Plus are to:
Protect/manage forests to preserve/enhance carbon stocks.
Support local economies and indigenous peoples, preserve biodiversity, protect water resources, enhance climate resilience.
Prevent or mitigate changes to local and regional climate (rainfall, temperature, etc.).
Develop programs to make REDD Plus self-sustaining over time at local level. Among the key REDD Plus policy challenges are:
Technical issues including assessment of forest cover change and carbon measurement, financing, scale, linkage to carbon markets, measurement, reporting and verification (MRV).
Implementation of safeguards for indigenous peoples, ecosystem services, conversion of natural forests.
Permanence to ensure forests and emission reductions are maintained over time.
Leakage or displacement of emissions, both within countries and internationally. In addition, REDD Plus can and should be a tool for development:
REDD Plus requires fundamental shifts in behaviour, integration with development plans.
Can promote and strengthen the viability and profitability of forest-friendly livelihoods (agro forestry, eco-tourism) to support low-income farmers and reduce smallholder deforestation
Provides incentives to governments and business to avoid large-scale clearing.
Long-term permanence will require incentives beyond carbon payments -- REDD Plus scheme cannot be expected to last indefinitely.
A three-phase approach to REDD Plus was developed by Norway and others in 2009 with wide recognition and support. The phases are:
Phase I: Capacity Building. Build capacity and readiness to participate in REDD Plus.
Phase II: Implementation and Initial Reductions. Developing countries implement programs to reduce deforestation, build experience and test environmental integrity. This may allow payment from public funds based on certain proxy indicators without market linkages.
Phase III: Performance-based Payments. Developing countries and (potentially) sub-national entities that meet strong eligibility criteria generate emission reduction credits that can receive direct payments or be sold as offsets on carbon markets.
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2. CAMBODIA’S FORESTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
2.1. Development Context
Cambodia is a small developing country situated in the heart of the Asian tropics. Its hot climate is heavily influenced by monsoonal winds that produce pronounced dry and wet seasons. Its climate supports an agricultural base centered upon the rice fields associated with the floodplains2 of the Mekong River-Tonle Sap Lake system that cover approximately 20 percent of the country. Prior to the onset of war and political instability in the 1970s Cambodia was a net rice exporter and had commenced on a path towards industrialization. These development gains were lost during the political and economic isolation of the 1970s and 1980s. Nevertheless, this also staved off development pressures that contributed to deforestation and increased GHG emissions in many other countries at that time. In the early 1990s a peace accord paved the way for a UN peacekeeping force and national elections. Today, the residual political tensions of the 1990s have given way to renewed economic development. As in many other small tropical countries Cambodia is characterized by a “young” population, high population growth, relatively high poverty, degradation of natural resources, and young manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its small economy is growing rapidly albeit inequitably. After three years of double digit growth, the economy grew 9.5 percent in 2007 and eased to 7.5 percent in 2008 (World Bank 20083) prior to the global economic downturn. Growth may be further buoyed by the development of offshore oil deposits that are currently being assessed. While this growth engenders a sense of a better future it also carries with it the promise of increased environmental degradation and GHG production; and possibly also risks further entrenchment of socio-economic inequities within society. Cambodia‟s Initial National Communication4 to the UNFCCC purports that Cambodia was a net sink for GHGs in 1994, prior to the renewal of economic development. Its GHG emissions of 67,900,000 tons were largely attributed to land use changes but reportedly offset by 73,040,000 tons of removals attributed to biomass growth of forests. Some observers feel that this is an optimistic assessment and the assumptions upon which this calculation was based are difficult to validate. Indeed, the report expresses caution in the development of calculations of carbon removals attributed to biomass growth of forests. GHG emissions in Cambodia have unquestionably increased rapidly since 1994, and are likely to continue doing so. This is largely the result of increased forest degradation and deforestation as well as growth in cement production, rice production and the use of petroleum-based fuels. It is reasonable to expect that emissions will grow in both the LUCF and other sectors without specific programs that aim to mitigate emissions. Direct mitigation of emissions related to agriculture, industry and infrastructure development might not be an attractive near-term option for the Cambodian government as it endeavors to catch up with the economic development experienced by other countries. Thus, efforts to reduce GHG emissions from deforestation and
2 Cambodia’s extensive alluvial plains are divided into two distinctive geological formations. The Recent Alluvial
Plains constitute the current floodplain areas of the Mekong River-Tonle Sap system along with those of its larger tributaries. These low-lying areas are distinct from the older Ancient Alluvial Plains which are generally 50-100 meters higher in elevation and are no longer subject to annual flooding. 3 The full report is available at
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/CAMBODIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:21368241~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:293856,00.html 4 Prepared by the Ministry of Environment, Royal Government of Cambodia.
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land-use change may be a more promising opportunity for Cambodia to contribute to global climate change goals.
2.2. Cambodia’s Forests
2.2.1. Forests and Forestry
Cambodia still retains a relatively high level of forest cover. Cambodia’s forest cover was in excess of 70 percent as late as the early 1990s, when an international peace accord paved the way for a UN peacekeeping force and national elections. Current estimates place total forest cover at about 60 percent (Forestry Administration, 2008), indicating that forest cover has decreased by over 10 percent since the end of the war in the early 1990s. Much of the lowland forest areas have been degraded to varying degrees (Forestry Administration 2008, IFSR 2004, BPAMP 2007, see Annex II). The large majority of Cambodia’s forest areas belong to one of three major forest formations; evergreen, semi-evergreen and deciduous forests. Other common formations include secondary forests, heath (dwarf evergreen) forests, bamboo forests, coastal mangroves, and the flooded forests that are associated with the Great Lake and other wetlands. Each of these are general forest formations that encompass a number of forest complexes and wide range of floristic plant communities associated with varying geological substrates, soils, climate, fire and disturbance regimes (Legris and Blasco 1970, Dy Phon 1981, IFSR 2004, BPAMP 2007). For example, the evergreen forest formation is divided into three forest complexes: (i) lowland wet evergreen forests; (ii) sub-montane wet evergreen forests, and (iii) lowland dry evergreen forests. Similarly, lowland wet evergreen forests include at least two forest communities of tall forest that are intermixed with one another and a heath forest5 community (e.g., Dy Phon 1971, FAO 1971). This diverse array of forest types includes many areas of regional and global biological significance. Nevertheless, forest areas remain under threat from unsustainable use, agricultural expansion and other competing land uses. Heavy and unsustainable use of forest resources over the last ten to fifteen years has substantively reduced the productive capacities of Cambodia’s forest ecosystems. While the full extent of forest degradation remains unclear, approximately 29 percent of Cambodia’s forest are located within three kilometers of a village or one kilometer of a vehicular track or road (BPAMP 2007), and are thus vulnerable to recurrent disturbance and have been the focus for much of the logging in the post-war period (IFSR 2004). The existence of extensive areas of degraded forest provides opportunity for the sequestration of large volumes of carbon. These forests will provide for continued and enhanced CO2 removals provided they are allowed to recover rather than be encroached upon or alienated and cleared. Nevertheless, Cambodia’s Initial National Communication projects that carbon removals from land use will decline by roughly 3 percent (or 20 million metric tons) by 2020 under business-as-usual (BAU) conditions, unless appropriate policy initiatives can be identified and implemented.
5 Cambodian heath forest is an analog of Bornean heath forests that occurs on poor sandy soils, though species
composition differs. Some authors refer to this forest type as dwarf evergreen forest (foret sempervirente basse).
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There have been three recent reviews of the management of the Cambodia forest sector. The Forest Concession Review in 2000 recognized a widespread lack of compliance in forestry operations with the principles of sustainable forestry and associated legal requirements. In 2004 the Independent Multi-Stakeholder Forest Sector Review (IFSR 2004) took a broader view of forests and forestry. This essentially resulted in the cessation of forestry concession activities though there are some annual logging coupe agreements and illegal logging also persists in some areas. The IFSR promoted the development of a National Forest Programme (NFP) that has recently been developed under the auspices of the RGC with the guidance of the Forestry Administration. Together with the forestry law the NFP is the main guiding instrument for the implementation of the RGC’s National Forest Policy.
2.2.2. Institutions
Institutional arrangements for the management of Cambodia’s forests vary, and sometimes overlap (Interim REDD+ Taskforce, 2010). The FA and MAFF are responsible for the Permanent Forest Estate including management of the Permanent Forest Reserve (PFR). The FA is responsible for regulating forest and forest product use on state public lands, including production forests (timber concessions and community forests), and protection forests as well as other public or private forests associated with indigenous minorities, private individuals and others. MAFF is also responsible for forest areas allocated for conversion as economic land concessions. While these areas total over seven million hectares, MoE also has jurisdiction over a set of 23 protected areas that encompass over three million hectares, the large majority of which are forested. The Fisheries Administration (FiA) also has responsibilities for a relatively small area of state public land within flooded forests, coastal mangroves and other wetlands. Other agencies also have responsibilities for natural resource management. The National Committee for Decentralization and Deconcentration (NCDD) within the Ministry of Interior has responsibilities for building the capacities of local government to undertake a range of developmental activities including natural resource management. Also, as recently as May 2009 the Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction (MLMUPC) has been given responsibilities for developing Commune Land Use Plans (CLUP). All institutions recognize the legal right of indigenous minorities to land ownership of traditional lands.
2.2.3. Key Drivers
Each of these agencies faces particular challenges in realizing their mandates. These challenges arise from a variety of factors, including changes in the physical landscape as well as overlapping mandates and other institutional considerations. Increasing demands for land derive from population increases, the expansion of traditional agriculture, the introduction of newer commercial agricultural activities and, more recently, exploration for mineral resources. Taken together, these issues provide particular challenges to the objectives of sustainable forest management, and for the enhancement or maintenance of carbon stocks and co-benefits such as the conservation and sustainable use of associated biological diversity and water resources. Prior to the war, approximately one-fifth of the land area was under agriculture. These lands were located between extensive forest and wetland areas. During the 1990s much of the forest loss and degradation was focused at the interface of extensive agricultural and forest areas,
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particularly where soils were fertile. This was in part due to the return of people to areas that they had previously lived in but abandoned due to poor security during the 1980s. In more recent years, forest loss has increased within the extensive forest tracts. This was associated with activities within logging concessions and with agricultural expansion (IFSR 2004). Lowland forests in many protected areas were also degraded. The major portion of the Roniem Daunsam Wildlife Sanctuary was de-gazetted to provide access to fertile agricultural lands and make limestone resources available for cement production. Key drivers in ongoing deforestation and forest degradation include a rapid increase of investments in land and poor integration of land use planning objectives and efforts at the national, provincial and local levels of government (UNDP 2010). It is estimated that at least 12 percent of the country’s forest area has been allocated to economic land concessions (Interim REDD+ Taskforce). Oil palm, rubber and biofuel plantations have been established in some concession areas with a view to further expansion. Many investors are also heavily involved in land speculation (UNDP 2010). There has also been an increasing demand for construction timbers by the domestic market. These drivers place additional pressures on the rural poor. Most of these communities are dependent upon forest products. Many communities, particularly ethnic minorities, are prone to losing land to more powerful sectors of society. Having either sold or lost their lands they are obliged to seek out an existence from upland forest areas, often contributing to further forest degradation and loss. These factors demonstrate the need to develop and support efforts to reduce forest degradation and loss and to stabilizing productive and equitable land use allocations in Cambodia.
2.2.4. Co-benefits of Reducing Forest Loss and Degradation
Cambodia’s forest areas remain of great socio-economic significance for Cambodians in terms of the direct benefits and ecological services they currently provide. These concern the utilitarian values of Cambodia’s biological diversity and maintenance of water flows that are directly linked to the nature and status of forest areas. Cambodia’s extensive forest areas retain great importance in maintaining ecosystem health and productivity. By regulating water flows forests help ensure that dry season flows are adequate to support the aquatic ecosystems that underpin the agricultural sector and Cambodia’s freshwater fisheries, which are among the largest in the world and have traditionally been the major source of protein for Cambodians. These forested catchments are essential in providing water for the increasing areas of irrigated land. The viability of both fisheries and of expanding irrigation areas thus requires that forest areas be functionally intact. In addition these hydrological functions underpin both the feasibility and the long-term viability of existing and proposed hydropower development schemes. The timber producing values of Cambodia’s forest areas have already been substantially reduced in the post-war years. While this should have arguably led to a reduction of pressure on forest areas (though see Forest Trends 2010) it has increased pressure on key high value species. In addition, there is a heavy domestic demand for wood fuels. Timber resources will remain in demand by various sectors of the economy for the foreseeable future. This demand can only be met by regenerating degraded areas for timber production, and/or by timber plantation development.
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Reducing deforestation will also mitigate and alleviate the impoverishment of rural communities. Continued forest loss and degradation will further deplete the wide range of forest and associated aquatic resources that local and indigenous peoples are dependent upon. This includes over 820 species of medicinal plants, some of which are currently the subject of anti-malarial research by the pharmaceutical industry (Hout et al. 2006). These pressures will exacerbate the degree of marginalization that many communities are currently experiencing. Forest conservation measures will also help enable forest dependent communities to develop and maintain non-timber forest resources that are already important drivers for a substantive portion of the rural economy. Another co-benefit of reducing deforestation is the strengthening of human rights, particularly for indigenous peoples whose lives and culture are intimately associated with forests. Currently, many rural communities feel dispossessed by recent and ongoing land acquisitions and logging by outsiders. These activities undermine their cultural identities as well as their abilities for genuine participation in the nation’s developing economy. Finally, the requirements for sustainable forest use will become of ever-increasing significance as the potential impacts of climate change become more manifest. Cambodia’s monsoonal climate places it at particular risk. Many rural communities report local changes in rainfall patterns during the last 15 years. Major shifts in rainfall are likely to have a significant impact on agricultural production in a country that has a monsoonal climate with a long dry season, is predominantly poor and heavily dependent upon agriculture. The resulting uncertainties threaten to hinder efforts to increase agricultural productivity and undermine the abilities of the poor to seek out a living. In doing so, this threatens to reverse gains achieved during the last decade or so, including the strategies and programs that seek to alleviate poverty and develop the country. Thus, the potential co-benefits of reducing deforestation concerning poverty reduction, indigenous peoples’ rights, sustainable use of water and aquatic resources and development of an efficient energy sector are significant, but can only be fully realized with adoption of effective policies to protect/maintain Cambodia’s forest areas.
2.3. Cambodia’s Protected Areas System
2.3.1. History
Protected areas can be a key element in a country’s national REDD Plus strategy, as the primary functions of protected areas, and of a protected area system, is to ensure the protection and maintenance of biological diversity and of natural and associated cultural resources (Box 2). Protected areas help to preserve carbon-rich forests, minimize leakage from investment in other areas, promote REDD safeguards and achieve co-benefits. As such, Cambodia has an important building block for REDD Plus strategies already in place. Cambodia has an extensive system of protected areas. Occupying over one-quarter of the country’s land area, this system is characterized by a number of large reserves complemented by smaller reserves that have been allocated to a range of protected area categories (Figure 1, Table 1). This extensive system reflects Cambodia’s long history of efforts to establish protected areas. In 1925, it became the first county in modern Southeast Asia to establish a protected area when 10,800 hectares of forest land around the renowned Angkor temple complex were designated. During the 1940’s and 50’s, approximately one-third of the country
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was classified into six wildlife protection areas and 173 forest reserves. The six wildlife reserves were dedicated primarily to large game management and covered approximately 22,000 km2. The 173 forest reserves were designated primarily for forest production and covered approximately 39,000 km2. Figure 1: Cambodia’s national protected area system
(after BPAMP 2007)
Box 2: Definitions of Protected Areas and Protected Area Systems A protected area (PA) is a clearly defined geographical space, recognized, dedicated and managed, through legal or other effective means, to achieve the long-term conservation of nature with associated ecosystem services and cultural values. A protected area system is a collection of protected areas managed with the aim of optimizing various characteristics and interrelationships that cannot be addressed when considering areas on an individual basis. PA systems are characterized by five interlinked elements; these are representativeness, adequacy, coherence and complementarity, consistency, and cost efficiency, effectiveness and equity. Interrelationships refer to those relationships between individual protected areas and between protected areas and the wider landscapes of which they are part.
Davey 1998, IUCN 2008
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Table 1: Summary statistics for Cambodia's protected area system
Name Designation Administrative Responsibility Area (km2)
Kulen Promtep
Wildlife Sanctuary
Ministry of Environment
4,096
Lomphat 2,526
Boeng Per 2,497
Phnom Prich 2,242
Phnom Nam Lyr 549
Phnom Samkos 3,297
Phnom Aural 2,542
Snoul 753
Roniem Daun Sam 400
Peam Krasop 259
Virachey
National Park
3,342
Phnom Kulen 374
Kirirom 336
Bokor 1,499
Ream 184
Botum Sakor 1,834
Kep 28
Samlaut
Multiple Use Area
610
Dong Peng 286
Tonle Sap 3,314
Banteay Chhmar Protected Landscape
848
Angkor 137
Preah Vihear 33
Stung Treng Ramsar Site 149
Southern Cardamoms
Protected Forest Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries
1,451
Preah Vihear 1,900
O Ya Dao 1,000
Ang Trapeng Thmor 129
Mondulkiri 4,307
Central Cardamoms 4,007
Phnom Thmau 24
Kbal Chhay 64
Seima Biodiversity Conservation Area
2,987
Koh Ker Historical Site Cultural Site Ministry of Culture and Fine Arts 79
Total 48,083
(after BPAMP 20076)
6 Supplementary notes: Ang Trapeang Thmar was created by royal decree rather than by a sub-decree, as were the
protection forests under FA’s mandate. Some minor changes in this system have happened since 2007. These include the creation of the O Ya Dao Protection forest in Rattanakiri (100,000 ha), excision of 40,000 ha from the Mondulkiri protection forest, and expansion of the protected lands at the Preah Vihear protected landscape to 10,000 ha.
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Although there was some intention to declare the wildlife reserves as national parks in the 1960’s, the outbreak of war in the early 1970’s delayed efforts to further develop the protected area system. As Cambodia emerged from war and political instability in the early 1990s, it was rapidly appreciated that natural resources had a major role to play in the nation’s future development. In 1993, His Majesty King Norodom Sihanouk issued a Reach Kret (royal decree) that created 23 protected areas covering 3.3 million hectares, or just over 18 % of the country’s total land area. The objectives laid out in the royal decree, and the establishment of complementary categories of protected areas, provide a framework for a national protected area system rather than a collection of ad-hoc protected areas. These areas have now been ratified by legislation issued in January 2008. The selection of the newly designated protected areas was based on a review of those protected areas designated or proposed prior to the war with the assistance of IUCN (Davey 1996, Ashwell 1997). The review was guided by widely accepted principles of reserve design and selection, and informed by previous reviews of the protected areas system (MacKinnon and MacKinnon 1986, Collins et al. 1991) and relevant biodiversity information. This was one of six in-country processes used to inform the drafting of national guidelines for protected area systems by IUCN’s World Commission on Protected Areas (Davey 1998). Since the promulgation of the royal decree on protected areas, the Royal Government has created nine “protection forests” totalling more than 1.3 million hectares. In addition, numerous other sites have been established to provide for the conservation or sustainable use of natural resources. These include three Ramsar sites designated under the Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, a number of genetic conservation tree stands, and an increasing number of Community Forestry Areas (CFAs), Community Fishery Areas (CFiAs) and Community Protected Areas (CPAs). The Tonle Sap Lake and the greater landscape surrounding it were designated as a Biosphere Reserve under the framework of UNESCO’s Man and Biosphere Programme in 1999. A number of additional sites have been established to protect sites of cultural and historical significance.
2.3.2. Representativeness
A review of this protected area system indicates that it is generally representative of the range of vegetation types and threatened fauna of international conservation significance in Cambodia (BPAMP 2007). The most significant gaps in representativeness concern the poor representation of resilient examples of lowland dry evergreen forests, limestone ecosystems, the floodplain vegetation of Stung Sen delta in the Tonle Sap, and island and marine ecosystems. It is expected that some other conservation targets remain vulnerable to loss and degradation. This review implies that 15-18 % of Cambodia’s land area would be sufficient to represent conservation targets provided they are allocated to core and conservation zones, managed effectively and supported by complementary zoning of other lands, both within and/or outside protected areas.
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2.3.3. Vulnerability
The current protected area system covers over 48,083 km2 or 26.5% of Cambodia’s land area.7 The most significant changes to the protected area system in recent years have been the addition of several new protection forests though the major portion of Roniem Daun Sam Wildlife Sanctuary (WS) has been degazetted. Deforestation is particularly evident in some areas such as parts of the Kulen Promtep and Snoul Wildlife Sanctuaries, while forest degradation is widespread in lowland areas (IFSR 2004, BPAMP 2007). As is the case in many countries, protected area status in Cambodia does not necessarily imply effective protection. The areas within protected area boundaries are subject to a range of impacts and land uses that represent a wide range of conditions and effectiveness. Virtually all of Cambodia’s protected areas have human populations living within their boundaries; this was the case even at the time of their establishment although some have been subjected to substantial in-migration in recent years. This remains a challenging issue for managers, yet the acknowledgement of peoples’ historical ties and legal claims to the land are important considerations in meeting various protected area objectives and in maintaining the support necessary to sustain the system. In addition to this substantial human presence, there are large areas within many protected areas that in effect are completely without any form of protection due to a shortage of trained staff and financial resources and other capacity related issues. This has led to lower levels of degradation in some areas and more severe impacts in others -- especially where the establishment or improvement of roads and other infrastructure has facilitated unregulated access to formerly remote areas. Although protected areas are generally more remote from disturbance than unprotected areas, and only two percent has been transformed, 41% of the area under protection has either undergone recent impacts or is vulnerable to impacts in the near future (Table 2). Annex II provides a graphic representation of these data. Table 2: Protected area status and impact levels
Protection Remote8 Vulnerable Transformed Totals
Protected Areas 57% 41% 2% 100%
Unprotected 29% 41% 30% 100%
Percentage Totals 36% 41% 22% 100%
(after BPAMP 2007)
2.3.4. Legal, Policy, and Institutional Frameworks
Conservation and/or sustainable use of natural or cultural resources are the shared objective of the various protected areas. Areas designated by royal decree in 1993 have been ratified by law and now require a sub-decree informed by research studies, criteria, management objectives, and access rights to resource uses, land titles, and other relevant aspects if changes
7 The Tonle Sap Lake and open ocean portions of the Tonle Sap Multiple Use Area and Ream National Park are not
included in this calculation. Cambodia “Total land area” is inclusive of the Tonle Sap Lake and all coastal islands but no ocean waters. 8 Areas less than three kilometers from a village or less than one kilometer from a road are considered to be
vulnerable to recurrent disturbance while those further away are considered to be relatively remote. Transformed areas are those areas that have lost all natural or semi-natural vegetation.
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are to be made. This is also the case for areas designated as protected forests under the Forestry Law (largely designated by sub-decrees). In addition to the Protected Area and Forestry Laws, Cambodian protected area policy is nested within several hierarchical levels of government policy. The Social and Economic Development Plan II (2002), the National Poverty Reduction Strategy (2002), and the Rectangular Development Strategy (2004) set the overall direction and priorities for planning and policy at the national level. At the sector level, the National Environmental Action Plan (1998)9 and National Forest Policy Statement outline the agendas of the primary state actors in protected areas. Multiple other sector-level strategies are relevant to the protected area system. Policy documents relevant to protected area planning and development are summarized in Table 3. Table 3: Policy documents relevant to protected area planning and development
Name of Strategy/Plan/Document Administrative Level/Initiating Agency
National Strategic Development Plan Central Government
National Poverty Reduction Strategy Central Government
Rectangular Development Strategy Central Government
National Environmental Action Plan Sector/Ministry of Environment
National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan
Central Government
National Forest Policy Statement Sector based MAFF
Master Plan for Fisheries 2001-2011 Sector based MAFF
National Forest Program 2010 Forestry Administration
Management responsibility for protected areas in Cambodia falls primarily under the MOE’s General Directorate for the Administration of Nature Conservation and Protection (GDANCP), though management authority for the Angkor and Preah Vihear historical sites and surrounding landscape come under the management of the Apsara and Preah Vihear Authorities. The authority lent to the MoE by the 1993 Royal Decree and the 1996 Framework Legislation for the Ministry of Environment was ratified and further qualified by the 2008 Protected Areas Law. Protected Forests and Tree Genetic Conservation sites falling under the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries’ Forestry Administration. As detailed in the 2002 Forestry Law, the government may designate protection forests under the management of the Forestry Administration. Although created by sub-decree, the stated management objectives of protection forests are similar to those protected areas under the jurisdiction of MoE that are supported by legislation. The Protected Areas Law also contains provisions for the Royal Government to adopt a national strategic management plan for protected areas that is to be reviewed every five years. MoE may propose changes to the protected area system. It also requires that management plans be developed in accordance with the strategic plan and provides a rationale for a management zoning structure within all areas under MoE management. Processes to facilitate the participatory development of zoning under this structure are already underway in a number of
9 Although protected areas are its intended field of relevance, it continues to be a central resource for policy and
planning for the Ministry of Environment.
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protected areas. The Forestry Administration has also initiated efforts to establish management zoning within areas under its jurisdiction. Collaboration between Government and donors in Cambodia is facilitated through about twenty sector-based Technical Working Groups (TWG), including the Forest and Environment (TWG-F&E) which includes both MOE and MAFF/FA. The TWG-F&E aims to provide technical assistance to the government in identifying priority activities, harmonization of activities, resource mobilization, and improving the utilization of financial resources. Separate TWGs exist for the fisheries and land sectors, and the government is considering the establishment of a separate TWG for protected areas and/or biodiversity. More recently, an Interim REDD+ Taskforce has been established to explore the development of a readiness plan or roadmap for REDD Plus in Cambodia. The Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction (MLMUPC) is the ministry overseeing the registration and management of State Public Lands, ensuring their registration in the cadastre after a proper state land identification, mapping and classification process. The ministry deals with land tenure of state public land, state private land, communal land and private land. Once a parcel of the Permanent Forest Reserve has been demarcated and registered by MAFF it needs to be added to the national Land Register kept by MLMUPC. The MLMUPC is also responsible for guidelines for land use management. Since 2005 it has operated with a concept for Participatory Land Use Planning (PLUP) that was promulgated as a sub-decree for land use planning at the Commune Level, (Commune Land Use Plans or CLUP) in 2008. Under the Organic Laws of the Decentralization and Deconcentration (D&D) Framework, commune councils, which operate under the authority of the Ministry of the Interior, are required to prepare natural resource management plans. Article 39 of the Organic Laws stipulates that each council shall formulate its development plan that includes “basic principles for the use and management of land and natural resources.”
2.3.5. Management at the System and Site Level
The Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Area Management (RAPPAM) of MoE-administered protected areas in Cambodia (Lacerda et al. 2005) revealed clear strengths and weaknesses in management at both the system and site level. Many of the same issues are reflected in areas managed by other agencies. Among the system’s strengths is its overall design (which was found to be conducive to effective management) and increasing levels of dialogue with, and involvement of, local stakeholders in all aspects of management. The system’s weaknesses include a lack of appropriate information on which to base management decisions and perennial financial and staffing shortfalls that limit management effectiveness in numerous ways. Reporting and communication mechanisms are inconsistent, making it difficult to appreciate and act on opportunities and threats that relate to the system as a whole. At the site level, the lack of up-to-date management plans means that management action often lacks coherency and focus. Although boundary demarcation is underway in some areas, handling confusion and abuses related to land tenure and boundary issues takes up a disproportionate amount of managers’ time (Lacerda et al. 2005).
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2.3.6. Management Zoning
Cambodia’s Protected Area Law provides for the development of a zoning system as a management tool for achieving protected area objectives (Box 3). This includes core, conservation, sustainable use and community development zones. While the law makes provision for community-based management and protection of forests as Community Protected Areas (CPAs), in the sustainable use zone there may be some challenges in reconciling the full scope of land uses allowed in the zone. To date, 82 CPAs have been set up in Cambodia based on the draft guidelines and lessons from these are being used to inform the finalization of the guideline. Communities inside a protected area can obtain formalized management and use rights through the development of CPA institutions that are incorporated at village level through a management committee and bylaws.
2.3.7. Financial Sustainability
Relatively few protected area systems are truly self-sustaining. In most western countries, domestic government budgets and various fiscal instruments provide funding, while in developing countries such as Cambodia the ability of domestic budgets to cover the costs of
Box 3: Management Zones under the Protected Area Law
Core Zone: A zone of high value for conservation of rare, endangered, vulnerable and threatened animal and plant species and fragile ecosystems. Entry into this zone is prohibited, except by authorized officials of the GDANCP. Scientific researchers conducting study of nature with the purpose of protecting and conserving natural resources, biodiversity and environment shall obtain advance permission from the Ministry of Environment.
Conservation Zone: A zone next to the core zone, which is of conservation value for natural resources, ecosystem, slope, and natural landscape. Entry into this zone shall be by obtaining advance permission from the GDANCP on site. Use of forest by-products for livelihood by the local community and indigenous ethnic minorities, which shall not cause harm to biodiversity, shall be under strict monitoring.
Sustainable Use Zone: A zone of high value in national economic development that directly serves the purpose of management and conservation of the protected area and contributes to promoting the standards of living of the local community and indigenous ethnic minorities. The Sustainable Use Zone includes the following sites: National cultural and heritage, ecotourism, wildlife conservation and recreational services, biological rehabilitation, community protected areas, botanic garden, infrastructure development, including irrigation, reservoir, hydro-electricity, electric networks, mining and environment-friendly resin exploitation in the protected area and surroundings.
Local Community Zone: A zone that serves the economic and social development of the local community and indigenous ethnic minorities who already have on-going activities, including housing, farming and vegetable gardening. Issuance of permits, land titles or permission to use the land in this zone is to be certified by the Ministry of Environment.
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conservation is limited at best. Although other investors have helped bridge the funding gap in recent years, these sources are relatively insecure in that they are subject to outside economic forces and donor fatigue. While increasing attention has been given to raising awareness of the financial value of protected areas, and to developing strategies for translating this value into much needed revenues for their management (ICEM 2003), cost estimates for Cambodia are limited. Brunner & Ashwell (2005) estimated that the protected area system could be effectively managed at a rate of approximately $0.60 per hectare per year,10 or a total of approximately $2,970,780 annually exclusive of costs at the central administrative level (e.g., costs of staffing and running the GDANCAP and the FA). They estimate that the government’s contribution to the MoE’s overall expenditure is approximately 25%, with the remainder coming from contributors such as the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and various NGOs. Given that current spending from all sources is already only a fraction of what is needed to effectively manage the protected area system, sustainable financing of the protected area system constitutes one of the system’s biggest strategic challenges. The Protected Area Law requires the development of a Protected Areas Fund and lists the following as sources of revenue to be developed for protected area operation:
Entrance and other service fees
Fines
Environmental endowment fund11
Donations
Assistance from national and international organizations and friendly countries
Assistance from international environment funds Of these, service fees, fines, and growth in the Environmental Endowment Fund represent significant and as yet very much untapped potential sources of revenue. The Environmental Endowment Fund and other funds currently being proposed to address climate change in Cambodia may provide the necessary scope for integrating a market mechanism for forest carbon under a future climate change regime. Service fees for commercial concessions within protected areas -- if levied and managed properly -- have tremendous potential for defraying much of the cost of protected area management. There is clearly an interest among investors in developing commercial activities, as exemplified by several large-scale commercial projects now proposed or underway in Phnom Bokor NP, Kirirom NP and Ream NP, Aural WS, Samlaut Multiple Use Area (MUA) and other sites. In addition to ensuring those commercial developments enhance the objectives of park management defined by law and do not damage the parks’ natural values, the main challenges are:
Establishing a clear set of guidelines for collecting service fees based on a detailed assessment of the value of services accruing to private interests under each approved project, and
Ensuring that, to the extent possible, revenues collected from such fees are directed to the maintenance and/or improvement of the protected area system.
Meeting these challenges is a priority for protected area management agencies, and will require formulation of appropriate legislation and policy as well as significant capacity development.
10
A range of per hectare costs is presented in the review. This figure represents the low end of the range. 11
Provisions for which are outlined in the Law on Environmental Protection and Natural Resource Management promulgated in 1996.
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Cambodia’s protected area system is relatively large, and there are numerous indications that current resources and political will are strained to justify it. However, there are several points that should serve to mitigate concerns over the total size of the protected area estate:
The various protected area categories have different objectives. While the total area committed for protection is more than a quarter of the country, international comparisons of protected areas are based on IUCN categories I to IV. The areas that fit these criteria are likely to be equivalent to 15 to 20 percent of the land area.
All areas are subject to site zoning procedures that will provide for sustainable activities under certain circumstances. Legal provisions provide for a relatively wide range of subsistence, commercial, infrastructure, or development activities in at least some zones.
A full 41 percent of the current system is within 3 km of a village or within 1 km of roads and vehicular tracks. Many of these areas are critical to sustain the livelihoods of local communities through the provision of food (fish, plants, etc.) and renewable resources such as bamboo and non-timber forest products (NTFPs).
Several of Cambodia’s protected areas cover some of the most commercially productive areas of the country including the Tonle Sap Lake and Angkor Protected Landscape.
2.3.8. Carbon Stocks in Protected Areas
Data presented by LifeWEB indicate that Cambodia’s protected areas are estimated to contain 820 million tons carbon (Table 4). These data are derived from UNEP’s Carbon Calculator for Protected Areas.12 This compares favorably with another recent estimate that Cambodia’s protected areas contain 0.95 Gt of carbon, or 32 percent of an estimated total of 2.96 Gt of carbon stored in Cambodia’s ecosystems (Leng et.al. in prep.) Table 4: Estimated carbon reserves in protected areas by region
Region Area (km
2)
Carbon (MMT)
Carbon (T/ha)
Coastal Hinterlands 2,655 60.7 229
Cardamom Mountains 13,132 281.7 215
Virachey 3,342 59.7 179
Battambang 1,010 18.0 178
Chhlong valley and plateau 4,289 75.2 175
North eastern plains 10,075 148.9 148
Northern Plains 10,093 136.3 135
Tonle Sap 3,463 42.9 124
Mekong Delta 24 0.1 42
47,083 823.6 175
Given that 40 percent of protected areas are vulnerable to degradation and or forest loss, it may be inferred that over 330 MMT of carbon will be converted to emissions if these areas are cleared. Some high carbon areas are particularly at risk, including the coastal hinterlands, the northern plains and Chhlong landscape including reserves at Snoul and Seima.
12
Data and methodologies are available at http://www.carbon-biodiversity.net/Interactive/CarbonCalculatorNotes
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3. CASE STUDY OVERVIEW
3.1. Objectives and Approach
This case study focuses on an analysis of the mitigation costs and benefits of REDD. This can help prioritize policies to be considered for adoption, pending an assessment of barriers and strategies for their implementation. It concerns complementary analyses of the opportunity costs of alternative uses for forest land, and the development of estimates of carbon for the key forest types in a case study area. The study constitutes the first in a series of “bottom-up” analyses on the opportunity costs of carbon rich forests in Cambodia, and focuses on a case study area within a focal landscape; the remaining dense lowland wet evergreen forests of Cambodia’s coastal hinterland. While the carbon analysis and deforestation baseline are developed for the case study area, the analyses of the opportunity costs of implementing REDD also include a focus on a smaller representative target area within the case study area. The key questions to be addressed in this analysis are: “Can the carbon values of a forest compete with the opportunity costs of alternative land uses,
and if so, in what context?”
What are the potential implications of establishing REDD emissions crediting baselines in Cambodia, given the country‟s specific circumstances?
How will implementation of a national REDD program under an international climate change
agreement differ from both traditional forest management and project-based REDD in Cambodia?
The approach taken to address these questions was to:
1. Estimate the potential value of the current forest carbon stocks of the case study area (Chapter 4)
2. Estimate the potential for forests to act as carbon sinks through rehabilitation13 of degraded forest areas (Chapter 4).
3. Establish a deforestation baseline for the case study area (Chapter 5). 4. Analyze the opportunity costs for select land uses in the case study area (Chapter 6). 5. Compare the opportunity costs for select land uses to the prospective financial value of
the current carbon stocks in a representative target area within the case study area (Chapter 7).
6. Use the carbon and opportunity cost assessments to inform forest conservation strategies in the economic, environmental, social, and institutional contexts of Cambodia’s protected areas (Chapter 8) and enhancement of carbon stocks and forest rehabilitation (Chapter 9).
The study also aims to enhance the awareness and understanding of Cambodian decision makers of the extent to which the opportunity costs of alternative land uses may be offset by
13
For the purposes of this paper we consider that “rehabilitation” refers to that form of forest “restoration” of the natural species composition and physiognomic form of the original forest, along with the attendant biodiversity and carbon values, in degraded forest areas where there is enough residual biota for natural regeneration to be possible, either with or without low intensity management interventions. A fuller discussion of this and other related concepts is given in Chapter 9.
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revenues derived from reductions in emissions from deforestation and degradation. In addition, it is important that the approach and methods developed here are replicable so that the results of the study may be extended to broader areas relatively easily and be used to inform the design of additional case studies.
3.2. Selection of Case Study Area
The case study area was selected from candidate forest landscapes that include extensive areas of “high carbon” forest and lack clear vulnerability to “wild cards” such as international and military tensions or mining ventures that lack transparency, as these may render an opportunity cost analysis irrelevant. Each of the candidate areas features lands under the jurisdiction of both the FA and the MoE. Some candidate forest landscapes of interest in these respects are:
1. Lowland forests of the coastal hinterland (below 600 to 700 masl14) in south-west Cambodia.
2. Sub-montane forests of the Cardamom Mountains (above 600 to 700 masl) in south-west Cambodia.
3. Semi-evergreen, dry evergreen, deciduous and sub-montane forests of the Chhlong valley and plateau – extending from the former Casotim timber concession area in Kratie province through Snoul and Seima districts, across to Phnom Nam Lyr on the Chhlong Plateau Mondulkiri province.
4. Dry evergreen and semi-evergreen forests of Boeng Per and Prey Long in north central
Cambodia.
Each of these areas features landscapes dominated by denser evergreen and/or semi-evergreen forests that, when undisturbed, contain substantial timber volumes (generally between 200 to 350 m3 per hectare) (Eav 1970, FAO 1962, 1971, IFSR 2004). The criteria used by the project team to compare the overall replicability of undertaking a case study in the four candidate areas (Table 5) were:
Carbon volumes –sufficient data on biomass and/or carbon values is available and/or attainable.
Forest types - a variety of forest types are present.
Forest condition - undisturbed and/or relatively undisturbed forests are present as well as disturbed forests.
Forest fire – forests areas are not likely to be subjected to extensive degradation or loss from fire in the short term.
Biodiversity values –the nature and significance of biodiversity values, particularly botanical values, has been documented.
Drivers - background information on drivers including population pressures, migration, agricultural developments and fire is available.
Opportunity costs – alternative land uses are readily identifiable and support a range of opportunity costs suitable to inform the development of a policy blueprint.
Logistics, ease of access and safety and security are not problematic issues.
Ease of extension – the analysis can be extended to contiguous forest areas in the future.
14
Meters above sea level.
22
Table 5: Scoring of potential case study areas
Coastal Hinterlands
Cardamom Mountains
Chhlong Boeng Per -Prey Lang
Carbon volumes 5 4 3 4
Forest types 5 4 4 3
Forest condition 5 4 3 4
Forest fire 5 4 3 4
Biodiversity values 5 5 5 5
Range of drivers 5 3 3 3
Range of opportunity costs 5 3 4 4
Logistics 5 3 5 4
Ease of extension 5 4 3 4
Overall Replicability 45 34 33 35 * 1= low, 5 = high.
The lowland forests of the coastal hinterlands west of the Cardamom Mountains were selected for the case study. The criteria indicate that a study in the forests of the coastal hinterlands would be most viable and replicable for the following reasons:
Carbon volumes – extensive pre-logging inventory and biomass estimates suggest higher carbon values than in the forest at higher elevation in the Cardamom Mountains and the mixed landscapes of the Chhlong and Boeng Per/ Prey Lang areas. The pre-logging inventory of all trees species greater than 10 cm diameter is possibly the best in the country, as it is based on extensive fieldwork, sound taxonomic expertise and statistical verification.
Forest types – a variety of forest types are present. The area features lowland wet evergreen, heath forest and semi-evergreen forests; as well as Melaleuca woodlands and swamps and mangrove forests.
Forest condition – while the area was extensively logged in the 1990s the canopy is generally intact. The extent of deforestation is relatively limited when compared to portions of two of the other three areas.
Forest fire – this landscape is not naturally prone to damaging fires, though there is evidence to suggest that fire may become an increasingly important driver of forest loss and degradation. Extensive areas of lowland forests in the Chhlong landscape have been converted by fire in recent decades, while fire has killed some forests on the top of the Cardamom range in the post-war period.
Biodiversity values – Cambodia’s coastal hinterland is one of only two areas in mainland Southeast Asia where extensive forest cover extends from the coastline to the mountain ridge. Its forests are particularly diverse.
Opportunity costs – increasing investment in the agriculture sector indicates that the crops of major interest are sugar, rubber, soy beans and maize; and possibly pepper, fruit trees (oranges, durian, mangosteen, jackfruit, bananas and milkfruit) and palm oil. Shade grown agroforestry options include sandalwood, cinnamon trees, wild gingers used for medicines, rattan, and cardamom. Other potentially significant NTFPs include tree resin and honey.
Drivers – similar data on population pressure, migration potential, agricultural developments, illegal logging and fire are available for all sites. Emerging drivers in the coastal hinterland include land-use change associated, in part, with the rehabilitation of the national highway #42; economic land concessions for agricultural products, fire,
23
migration, and potential developments associated with areas downstream from dam construction.
Logistics – the area is easily accessed and secure.
Ease of extension – the analysis may be extended directly to other coastal hinterland forests as well as other forest areas in the south-west.
3.3. The Coastal Hinterlands Case Study Landscape
The lowland forests of the coastal hinterlands selected for the case study (Figure 2) correspond to the area covered by a forest inventory undertaken by FAO in the 1960s (FAO 1971). The Forest Survey of the Lowlands West of the Cardamomes Mountains encompasses an area of 487,000 hectares of coastal hinterland forests in Koh Kong and Sihanoukville provinces. During the 1960s the area was almost entirely covered by lowland wet evergreen forests of varying commercial potential along with heath forests and rear mangroves (Melaleuca); as well as small extents of semi humid and deciduous forest, shore mangroves and bamboo forests (Table 6). Figure 2: Case study area and target area
Prior to the onset of war in the 1970s there had been limited commercial logging in this area. This situation persisted until the post-war period. In the early 1990s the area was heavily logged and the larger trees removed, particularly those within the primary and secondary timber quality classes (DAI 1999, ADB 2000). This was later followed by the selective logging of smaller tree diameters belonging to these two timber quality classes, and by land clearance of
24
forests to the east and north of the Bay of Kompong Som. In the last decade much of the remaining forest areas have been subject to “hi-grading” by the removal of luxury timber species. Currently, much of the area’s remaining forests are located within protected areas. These include all of Botum Sakor National Park, half of the Southern Cardamoms Protection Forest and the Dong Peng Multiple Use Area in the western and central sectors of the case study area; along with Ream National Park, Kbal Chhay Protection Forest and portions of Phnom Bokor National Park in the eastern sectors (see Figure 2). Other remaining forest areas within the study area are also part of the Permanent Forest Estate. Table 6: Pre-war area statements of forest types
FAO Code Forest Type Area (ha) % Case Inventoried
Study Area Area (ha)
All Forests 422,751 86.7 337,109
HC - Dense Lowland Evergreen Forests 314,306 64.5 250,793
H3C Well stocked 47,226 9.7 47,226
H2C Medium stocking 46,697 9.6 46,697
H1C Sparsely stocked 28,366 5.8 28,366
SH Semi-humid forests 2,505 0.5 2,505
HB Pole sized stands 125,999 25.9 125,999
HA Regeneration stands 15,589 3.2 0
- Exploited Forests 47,924 9.8 0
Other Forests 108,445 22.2 86,316
M38L Heath Forest 47,250 9.7 47,250
D Deciduous Forest 3,301 0.7 0
SM Mangrove 13,421 2.7 0
RM Rear mangrove (Melaleuca) 39,066 8.0 39,066
B Bamboo 5,407 1.1 0
All Non-forests 64,488 13.3 0
Non Forest Agriculture, urban, etc. 59,777 12.3 0
Water Rivers, open water swamp 4,711 1.0 0
TOTALS 487,239 100 337,109 Source: FAO (1971)
The major forest types are stocked and pole evergreen stands of wet evergreen forest, heath forest and Melaleuca forests (Table 6, Figure 3). FAO’s inventory indicates that 337,109 ha of forest were inventoried in the study area. These include:
Stocked dense wet lowland evergreen forests (124,794 ha) - These forests are tall dipterocarp forests in which Dipterocarpus and Anistoptera dominate a canopy 40 to 45 meters in height. Prior to logging, the canopy was frequently uneven as stocking density varied from eight to more than eighteen large trees per hectare.
Pole stands of dense wet lowland evergreen forest (125,999 ha) – These forests include a continuous canopy of 20 to 35 meters in height and are dominated by Hopea and a range of other species.
Heath forest (47,250 ha) – These forests are associated with poor sandy soils, are generally only 20 to 25 meters high and dominated by the gymnosperms Dacrydium and Podocarpus. Palm trees feature prominently in the understory.
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Melaleuca woodlands (39,066 ha) – These grassy woodlands are associated with the ecotone between intertidal mangroves and dryland forest formations, but also extend into dryland areas where fire has resulted in the degradation of heath forests.
Figure 3: Vegetation profiles for heath and well stocked evergreen forests
REPRESENTATION OF FOREST TYPES
6
Heath Forest
Evergreen Forest
(after Dy Phon 1981)
3.4. Target Area
3.4.1. Selection and Location
The target area used to estimate the opportunity costs of REDD on a per ton of carbon saved basis (Chapter 7) consists of 43,911 hectares, or roughly ten percent of the larger case study area (see Figure 2). This area was selected because of the:
1. Availability of economic data for crops likely to be developed in the area; maize, soy bean, sugar and rubber.
2. Inclusion of protected areas under the jurisdiction of both the MoE and FA. 3. Potential to inform the drafting of a policy blueprint for protected areas in Cambodia. 4. Area being bisected by national route 42, which engenders a credible threat of
deforestation and forest degradation of the remaining lowland forests of Botum Sakor National Park and the Southern Cardamoms Protection Forest
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This target area is located along national route 42 in the remaining lowland forests of Botum Sakor National Park and the Southern Cardamoms Protection Forest. This major road was rebuilt in recent years and connects Koh Kong province to the rest of the country, and is also one of the two arterial roads connecting Cambodia to Thailand. This section of National Route No. 42 extends westwards from Andoeung Tuk to Koh Kong Township separating Botum Sakor National Park from the Southern Cardamoms Protection Forest. These areas are managed by the FA and GDANCP, respectively, with financial and technical support from the international donor and NGO community. While the target area overlaps three districts there are no villages within the area. Areas of intensive settlement within contiguous coastal ecosystems, such as those at Andoueng Tuk, were excluded from the target area for the purposes of the current study. The target area straddles a low-lying area of old alluvium15 that is flanked on both sides by sandstone foothills (Table 7). It features extensive dense tropical evergreen forests that have been subject to substantial degradation during the 1990s. These forests are dominated by the stocked and pole stands of lowland wet evergreen forests, heath forests and Melaleuca forests that are typically associated with sandstone and alluvium derived soils in the coastal hinterland. Historically, these forests varied in terms of commercial value, with the more heavily stocked dense evergreen forests of better commercial value tending to be associated with the sandstone hills, while the other forest types of lower commercial value tend to be associated with the alluvia (see Table 7 below). However, extensive logging commenced during the 1990s and resulted in the loss of the more commercial larger trees from much of the target area (DAI 1998). Subsequent logging has targeted luxury timber species and other timber species of smaller diameter. Table 7: Soil and forest types for the target area
Pole Evergreen, Heath and Melaleuca
Forests
Stocked Evergreen Forests
Total
Sandstone Hills 7,685 15,367 23,052
Alluvia 14,932 5,926 20,858
Total Area 22,617 21,293 43,911
For the purposes of the analysis the target area is considered to consist of one parcel of land comprised of two major soil groups associated with the old alluvium and sandstone hills. It is assumed that the forest types within the target area occur in the same proportions as they do for the wider forest area within the case study area as described in the FAO inventory. It was also assumed that each of the two soil types constituted 50 percent of the target area. These assumptions appear justifiable as the level of detail provided in the FAO maps supports them, and the major forest and soil types are roughly equal in extent (Table 7).
15
“Old Alluvium” refers to the slightly raised ancient alluvial plains that are not longer inundated by the annual flooding regimes of Cambodia rivers and streams (Crocker 1962).
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4. HISTORICAL, CURRENT AND POTENTIAL CARBON STOCK ESTIMATES
4.1. Objectives and Approach
This chapter quantifies the value of the current stocks within the forests of the case study area, by estimating the original and current carbon stocks, and the potential to sequester additional carbon through rehabilitation of degraded forests. Forest carbon estimates are developed through a modeling approach, as it was outside the capacity of the current project to undertake a field assessment. Furthermore, forest inventories for the case study have either not been implemented to a significant extent, are either ongoing16 or not yet readily available, or are of limited utility due to capacity limitations on forest surveys, e.g., limited plot numbers, taxonomic uncertainties, etc. This analysis is therefore based on historical datasets for the case study developed prior to the war as well as post-war forest cover assessments. Data from an FAO inventory and accompanying biomass studies conducted in the 1960’s were used to estimate carbon stocks. These historical carbon estimates were then used to model the extraction of timber from these forests from logging activities as a basis for calculating current carbon stocks and additional sequestration potential. The combination of inventory and biomass studies from the same forest landscape provides an exceptionally rare opportunity to assess the roles of forest carbon stocks at a landscape level in a small tropical forest country with limited institutional capacities for forest management.
4.2. Source Data and Calculations
The modeling of forest carbon is based on pre-war forest inventory and biomass studies developed by the FAO (1971) and by Hozumi et.al (1968), respectively. This data was used to calculate the total forest biomass from the commercial timber volumes using the conversion factors shown in Tables 8 and 9. The FAO study was undertaken in the forests of the coastal hinterlands around the Kompong Som Bay as shown in Figure 4. These studies were undertaken during the 1960s, prior to the onset of war, when commercial logging was limited to about ten percent of the coastal hinterlands. The biomass study is located at Chamlong Kour located within the FAO forest inventory area, and is one of the few data sources used by Brown (1992) for her pivotal paper on the estimation of forest carbon in tropical forests. In addition, a number of GIS based forest cover maps that were prepared through standard remote sending techniques were used to undertake the forest cover change analysis required to develop the deforestation baseline.
4.2.1. FAO Forest Inventory Data
The forest inventory presented in the Forest Survey of the Lowlands West of the Cardamomes Mountains summarizes the results of a five year long forest inventory undertaken by the FAO in the late 1960s (FAO 1971).17 The inventory covers the large majority of Cambodia’s coastal
16
Wildlife Alliance and ONF International are currently implementing a carbon assessment for forests immediately to the north of the case study area. 17
Forest Survey of the Lowlands West of the Cardamomes Mountains (1971).
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hinterland forests and provides area statements and maps for a range of forest and soil types for the area, along with timber volumes and details of the sampling strategy and locations. Figure 4: Location of FAO’s Forest Survey of Lowlands West of the Cardamom Mountains
During the course of the inventory work FAO divided the area into six sectors and inventoried 337,109 ha of forest. This was done over a five-year period from 1965 to 1970; involved 16,000 man-days of field and analysis work, and generated over 2,500 pages of data. The study provides:
Area statements for each of the major forest types and other land use categories.
Commercial timber volumes in the principal forest types: wet lowland tropical evergreen forests, heath forest and Melaleuca woodlands.
Commercial timber volumes for sub-types of wet evergreen forests: stocked stands, pole stands and regeneration stands.
Commercial timber volume data for 128 tree commercial species. Data for the 128 tree species were provided by:
Fourteen size classes ranging from 10 cm to more than 120 cm. in diameter.
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Five timber quality classes ranging from deluxe through primary and secondary timbers to tertiary timber classes, and a group referred to as unclassified or “fourth” class timbers that had been identified tree species but not been classified into a timber quality class.
In addition, the FAO and USAID forest inventories (USAID 1962) indicate that, in the 1960s, an additional class of unidentified and unclassified tree species (category 5) was recognized. This class was later dispensed with as species were identified and allocated to one of the other classes described above.
4.2.2. Allometric Relations for Biomass
The productivity study by Hozumi et.al. (1968) provides empirical data for the calculation of forest biomass for a number of vegetation types at Chamlong Kour (Cheko) located within the area covered by the FAO inventory. This study develops allometric relations between biomass and stem diameter and tree height for lowland wet evergreen forest, heath forest and Melaleuca woodlands. Separate ratios for stem biomass to the biomass of branches, leaves and roots for each forest type (Table 8) were developed from their analysis. Hozumi’s study also provides biomass statements for the ground vegetation below 5 cm diameter at breast height (dbh) and for small trees greater than 5 cm dbh. The raw data for these calculations are presented in Annex III. Table 8: Ratios of above and below ground biomass to stem dry weight
Forest Type
Above Ground Biomass (AGB) Total AGB*
Roots All
Biomass Branch Leaf Ground
Vegetation
Evergreen Forest 0.46 0.03 0.02 1.51 0.28 1.79
Heath Forest 0.32 0.06 0.04 1.42 0.17 1.59
Melaleuca Forest 0.53 0.11 0.17 1.81 0.36 2.17 *Including stem biomass.
4.2.3. Conversion Factors and Data Used in Calculations
This study relies upon the use of secondary data sources rather than an allometric analysis of primary data to calculate carbon estimates. The main steps taken to convert statements of the commercial timber stocks to total forest biomass were the calculation of the:
1. Total volume of above ground stem wood for trees greater than 5 cm dbh and for the understory.
2. Total biomass of above ground stem wood as dry weight. 3. Total above and below ground biomass.
A number of conversion factors (Tables 9 and 10) were used to quantify the total wood volumes, biomass, forest carbon and CO2 equivalent on both an absolute and a per hectare basis for:
1. The entire case study area. 2. Each major forest type within.
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Table 9: Steps, data and conversion factors for calculating forest biomass
Volume of Above Ground Stem Wood Data or
Conversion Factor Used
1. Commercial timber stock for trees > 10 cm dbh (m3) FAO baseline data
2. Commercial timber stock volume > 10 cm dbh to stem-wood volume (m
3): General conversion factor (no category 5 trees added).
x 1.41
3. Total stem-wood stock for trees > 10 cm dbh (m3):
Assumes all category 5 trees are in evergreen forests x 1.5798
1
4. Conversion to stem-wood stocks per hectare (m3/ha)
for trees > 10 cm dbh. Divide by inventory area
(ha)
5. Total Stem-wood volume: Addition of 5-10 cm diameter class2 Add 9.7232 m
3/ha
2
Biomass of Above Ground Stem Wood Conversion Factor
6. Stem-wood volume to stem biomass on a dry weight basis (tons/ m
3): based on average wood densities for each timber class as
calculated from wood densities for each timber species.3
Luxury = 0.66
Grade 1 = 0.62
Grade 2 = 0.59
Grade 3 = 0.59
Grade 4 = 0.59
5-10 cm class = 0.51
Average = 0.61
Above Ground and Below Ground Biomass Conversion Factors
7. Stem biomass to total above ground biomass: Sum of the dry weight of the stem, leaf, branch and undergrowth biomass. This varies among forest types as shown in Table 8.
4
Evergreen = 1.51
Heath = 1.42
Melaleuca = 1.81
8. Stem biomass to root biomass: Varies depending on forest type) as shown in Table 8.
4
Evergreen = 0.28
Heath =0.17
Melaleuca = 0.36
1Derived from USAID (1962);
2 Derived from Hozumi et al. (1968);
3 As listed in the IPCC Guidelines;
4
Table 8 as derived from Hozumi et al. (1968).
Table 10: Conversion factors for calculating forest carbon and CO2 equivalent
Conversion Data or Conversion Factor Used
Biomass to Carbon (tons) x0.51
Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Emissions (tons) x3.67
1
Carbon Emissions (tons/ha) Divide by inventory area (ha)2
1 As listed in the IPCC Guidelines; 2 As per FAO 1971
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4.3. Methods for Estimating Carbon Stocks
4.3.1. Pre-logging Carbon Stocks
The FAO inventory data from the 1960’s were used to estimate the carbon stocks and potential emissions (CO2e) associated with the full forest area and each of the four forest types in the case study area (337,109 hectare). Carbon stocks were calculated on both an absolute and on a per hectare basis. Each of these estimates were developed by converting commercial timber volumes to total above ground stem wood volume and biomass, and then to total biomass, using the conversion factors shown in Table 9; and then to the amount of carbon and CO2 equivalent using the conversion factors shown in Table 10. Thus, carbon stock estimates for the pre-logging scenario were developed through calculating the following:
Commercial (sawn) timber volumes for trees larger than 10 cm dbh in the top five timber categories (deluxe, first, secondary, third and quaternary classes) as derived from the FAO inventory.
Stem wood (round wood) volumes for trees larger than 10 cm dbh in the top five timber categories.
Portion of trees larger than 10 cm dbh that belong to category 5 timbers.
Total stem wood volumes for trees larger than 10 cm dbh in the six timber categories.
Additional stem wood volume of trees in the 5 to 10 cm dbh size class.
Conversion of stem wood volumes to stem biomass.
Above ground, below ground and total biomass.
Conversion to carbon stocks.
Conversion to carbon emissions.
4.3.2. Current Carbon Stocks
The level of current carbon stocks was estimated for the forest area in the case study area by modeling forest degradation from timber losses due to logging. Reduced timber volumes and the corresponding carbon stocks and potential emissions were calculated by assuming that:
All of the commercial timber trees listed in the FAO inventory that were larger than the legal cut regulations were removed during the post-war period, and that the forests have not recovered substantially.
Category 5 trees were “harvested” in the same proportion as the volumes of the other timber quality classes.
Each forest type was degraded proportionally as the lack of data relating to species composition of each habitat type precluded additional analysis.
The inherent limitations of working with the secondary data presented in the FAO report prevent the development of estimates for each of the different forest types. While species compositions and timber volume statements were presented for the entire forest area inventoried, these data were not presented for each forest type.
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4.3.3. Additional Sequestration Potential
A simple calculation of the additional carbon that could be sequestered on a per hectare basis was made assuming that a tropical forest was able to regenerate up to 70% of pre-disturbed levels over a period of 30 years (e.g., Ng 1986). The additional sequestration potential was developed by calculating the:
Average stock levels equivalent to 70% of pre-logging forest carbon stocks as a reference level.
Additional sequestration potential as the difference between the 70% of reference level and current carbon stock estimates.
Average annual increment required to achieve the sequestration potential over a 30-year period.
4.4. Results of Carbon Stock Estimates
4.4.1. Pre-logging Carbon Stocks
Pre-logging carbon stocks were calculated to be 144.73 tons/ha or 531.17 tons CO2e/ha across the four forest types (Table 11). This equates to an estimated 48.8 million tons of carbon for the 337,109 hectares of forest within the case study area in 1971, equivalent to approximately 180 million tons CO2e. Table 11: Pre-logging biomass and carbon estimates by forest type for the case study area
Evergreen Forest
Melaleuca Woodlands
All Inventoried Forests
Well Stocked
Pole Heath Forest
All Evergreen
Total Above Ground Biomass (tons)
56,092,709 20,001,006 6,068,228 82,161,943 483,697 82,645,640
Total Below Ground Biomass (tons)
10,407,348 3,710,953 721,658 14,839,959 95,181 14,935,140
Total Biomass (tons)
66,500,056 23,711,959 6,789,886 97,001,902 578,878 97,580,780
Biomass (tons/ha) 532.88 188.19 143.70 325.46 14.82 289.46
Carbon Estimates
Total Carbon (tons) 33,250,028 11,855,980 3,394,943 48,500,951 289,439 48,790,390
Carbon (tons/ha) 266.44 94.10 71.85 151.34 7.41 144.73
CO2e (tons) 122,027,604 43,511,445 12,459,440 177,998,489 1,062,242 179,060,731
CO2e (tons/ha) 977.83 345.33 263.69 555.42 27.19 531.17
Carbon stocks within these four forest types vary widely, with the well-stocked evergreen forest stands at a high of 266.44 tons/ha and the Melaleuca stands containing the least amount of carbon per ha at 7.41 tons/ha (Table 11, Figure 5). While the former estimate may appear to be high when compared to some other estimates, the average of 555.42 tons CO2e per hectare is comparable to those recently documented for Cambodia by Kiyono et al. (2010), and slightly lower than their measurements developed for the nearby Phnom Bokor National Park on
33
Cambodia’s coastline. Furthermore, it may be expected that carbon stocks are high for this forest category as:
This was essentially a pristine forest landscape when inventoried: the FAO report describes the area as being “rich in timbers of large dimension”
This category gathers together the more commercially attractive stands specifically for the purpose of facilitating forest harvest operations.
Figure 5: Pre-logging carbon stocks by habitat type (tons/ha)
4.4.2. Current Carbon Stocks
The biomass and carbon content were estimated using the disturbed model methodology described above. The carbon present in the case study area today is estimated to be 79.55 tons/ha, or 291.96 CO2e tons/ha (Table 12). This is just over one-half (55%) of the pre-logged level and compares favorably with estimates for north-central Cambodia, where the removal of all legal permitted timber would reduce the carbon stocks by 41 percent (Sasaki and Yoshimoto 2010).
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
Evergreen Forest - Well
Stocked
Evergreen Forest - Pole
Heath Forest Melaleuca
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Table 12: Carbon estimates for original forest and post-logging models
Pre-Logged Total Disturbed Model
Total Above Ground Biomass (tons)
82,645,640 45,241,986
Total Below Ground Biomass (tons)
14,935,140 8,394,123
Total Biomass (tons) 97,580,780 53,636,109
Total Biomass (tons/ha) 289.46 159.11
Total Carbon (tons) 48,790,390 26,818,055
Total Carbon (tons/ha) 144.73 79.55
Total CO2e (tons) 179,060,731 98,422,260
CO2e (tons/ha) 531.17 291.96
Using the current forest area of 298,617 ha of evergreen, semi-evergreen and secondary forest remaining in 2006 (FA 2006) and applying the carbon per ha estimate to this value gives:
23,755,014.17 tons of Carbon
87,184,336.10 tons of CO2e This analysis indicates that more carbon was lost due to forest degradation than from deforestation. Compared to pre-logging levels, total forest cover in the case study area declined by 11% through 2006, while the average carbon content decreased by a much greater margin: by 45% of the prewar stocks, or an average of 65.18 tons per hectare (Table 12).
4.4.3. Additional Sequestration Potential
The additional carbon that could be sequestered over and above existing levels assuming that these forests can recover up to a level equivalent to 70% of their original carbon content over 30 years was calculated using data from Table 12 as follows:
(531.17 * 0.7) - 291.96 = 79.86 tons CO2e/ha This is equivalent to an average annual sequestration of 2.66 tons CO2e/ha/year.
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5. DEFORESTATION BASELINE
5.1. Objectives and Approach
This chapter evaluates the potential implications of implementing a REDD project in the case study area, to help illustrate the broader implications of Cambodia’s potential participation in a future REDD compliance market under the UNFCCC. It uses a methodology (a historical emissions baseline) expected to be required for participation in an international REDD agreement. This analysis includes development of:
Two historical deforestation and emissions baselines for the case study area associated with differing time periods.
A model of potential future annual average emission rates from deforestation for the case study area.
An estimate of the amount of carbon available for crediting based on the total carbon-equivalent emissions avoided if the forest is maintained.
Potential market values of the carbon available for crediting, using (approximate) current prices on the voluntary REDD market and the GHG compliance market.
The total carbon that would be available for crediting by reducing potential future deforestation was estimated by comparing the emissions from forest clearance in future years to the emissions associated with the historical deforestation rates. The study explores the implications for four potential scenarios in the case study area, by developing potential REDD emissions baselines for two different historical periods and two future average emissions rates.
5.2. Methodology
5.2.1. Historical Deforestation Baseline and Patterns
The historical annual deforestation rates were analyzed for each of the six sectors defined in the FAO study (see Figure 2) by comparing GIS data for forest cover from 1993 to 2006. These data were derived from the following national datasets:
1993: Mekong River Commission
1997: Mekong River Commission, Ministry of Environment and Forestry Administration
2000: Mekong River Commission, Ministry of Environment and Forestry Administration
2002: Forestry Administration
2006: Forestry Administration Standardization of the forest typologies was required to ensure that data sets were comparable. This was achieved by harmonizing the more detailed classifications used in the earlier assessments with those used in the Forestry Administration’s 2002/2006 assessments (Forest Cover Report 2008) in two steps:
A “Secondary Forest” category was created in the Forestry Administration’s 2002 and 2006 typology by removing all forest areas except the mangroves and plantations from
36
the “Other forest” category.18 This resulted in a “Secondary Forest”19 category and an “Other forest” category comprised of mangroves and plantations.
Allocation of the more detailed classes from the earlier assessments to the appropriate category in the modified typology.
The following classes were finalized and employed in the analysis of forest loss in the case study area:
Evergreen Forest
Semi-Evergreen Forest
Secondary Forest – all heavily disturbed forest categories including those extracted from the “Other Forest” category
Other forest – primarily mangroves and plantations
Deciduous Forest – including dry woodlands category
Non-Forest – agriculture, settlement etc. Annex IV describes in more detail the vegetation types that make up these categories. Forest cover maps were then developed for each of the six sectors (see Figure 2) from four of the five national GIS map sets available. Data for 1993 were omitted from the analysis as the forest typology could not be harmonized with the other data sets. This allowed calculation of forest cover changes from 1997 to 2006 through comparisons of forest area statements for each of the land cover classes listed above. Preliminary analysis of forest cover change for each of the six sectors indicated that deforestation rates varied significantly between some sectors, while others experienced similar deforestation rates. Two main areas were thus recognized on the basis of their deforestation rates. Thus, data were grouped for analysis as follows:
Eastern sectors – sectors 1 and 2 located along national route 4, and sector 3 in the easterly portion of national route # 42 between Sre Ambel and Andoung Tuk. These areas experienced higher deforestation rates as a result of being more easily accessible following the rehabilitation of national roads early in the post-war period.
Western sectors – sectors 4, 5 and 6 located along national route 42 between Andoung Tuk and Koh Kong Township. These areas experienced lower deforestation rates: they were less accessible in the post-war period as their remoteness resulted in greater delays in the rehabilitation of national roads and bridges.
Patterns in the deforestation were discussed by comparing changes in each of the six land cover categories between 1997 and 2006.
5.2.2. Carbon Available for Credit
The amount and value of carbon stock protected and the carbon-equivalent emissions avoided were calculated as follows:
18
Analysis of the area of the mangrove and plantation categories in each of the five forest cover maps indicated that it was reasonable to assume that the extent of these land cover classes remained unchanged, or that change was so limited as to be considered negligible for the purposes of this analysis. 19
NB: All of the forest typologies referred to here tend to use the term “secondary forest” to refer to forests that have been degraded as well as those that are truly “secondary” in the classical sense, i.e. forests that have resulted from the regeneration of cleared lands.
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The annual average emission rate (AAER) for two historical periods, 1997 to 2006 and 2002 to 2006, was calculated using 291.96 ton CO2e/ha identified in the case study area as the current carbon stock value.
Two future annual average deforestation rates (AADRs) were proposed and analyzed based on the historical deforestation rates for the two time periods evaluated. These were 4% (an assumed rate proximate to that observed for the 1997 to 2006 period) and 0.8% (assumed based on the 2002 to 2006 rate).
The two annual average deforestation rates were then used to calculate future AAERs for the area between the years 2016 and 2020 (i.e. a five-year REDD crediting period was assumed), to determine the amount of carbon available for credit. Deforestation at these rates was assumed to begin in 2007 and continue through 2020.
This analysis was conducted using the entire case study area.20 The estimate of current carbon stocks was used as the basis for identifying the emissions that would result from total forest clearance. It was assumed that the carbon price was US $5/ton for the voluntary market and US $20/ton for the compliance market.
5.3. Results
5.3.1. Historical Deforestation Baseline and Patterns
The analysis estimated that in the entire case study area, forest cover totaled 445,544 ha in 1997. In 2006, total forest cover in the entire case study area fell to 316,632 ha. This equates to a total loss of forest area of nearly 129,000 ha from 1997 to 2006 -- an annual average loss of 14,320 ha, or 3.2% of the 1997 forest cover. The forest cover of the case study area thus decreased from a high of nearly 90% to only 62% over this nine-year period. Deforestation trends differ markedly between the eastern and western sectors. The rate of deforestation over the nine-year period, measured as the increase in the area of non-forest, was 4.1% in the eastern sectors and 1.8% in the western sectors (Figure 6). The eastern sectors have lost a total of 89,440 ha, 42% of the 1997 forest cover. In contrast, the western sectors experienced a relatively moderate reduction, losing a total of 39,470 ha or about 17% of the 1997 forest cover. These numbers contrast with a national deforestation rate estimated to be 0.5% (FA 2008), and reflect that deforestation has been concentrated in certain areas of the country. Furthermore, the rate of forest lost appears to have changed substantially over time. The average deforestation rate from 1997 to 2006 is markedly higher than for the period from 2002 to 2006, particularly in the eastern sectors (Figure 6).
20
A 4 % difference between the 507,903 ha used here and the 487,000 ha used by FAO results from minor technical difficulties in transferring the case study area boundary from a hardcopy of the FAO map to a digital map set.
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Figure 6: Changes in non-forest in the eastern and western sectors
The analysis also reveals that some forest types within the case study area were targeted for conversion to non-forest (Figure 7). Evergreen forest experiences a relatively small decline when compared to secondary forests. In the eastern and western sectors, evergreen forest cover fell by 27% (30,110 ha) and 6.8% (12,700 ha) from their 1997 forest cover, respectively. In contrast, the secondary forest category - containing the more heavily disturbed forest areas - experienced a much larger decline in cover over the nine-year period. In the eastern sectors, secondary forest cover is reduced by 67% (40,250 ha) from the 1997 levels. The western sector witnessed a more moderate conversion rate, with 45% (just under 9,500 ha) of the secondary forest category cleared in the same time frame. These trends reflect a pattern in which deforestation tends to be focused along the interface of existing agricultural lands with larger forest blocks. While more accessible secondary forests are being lost, the more remote evergreen forests are being degraded into “secondary” forests. The rate at which secondary forests are being lost exceeds the rate at which they are being “created”. This implies that the secondary forest category will soon disappear and that the rate of evergreen forest could increase dramatically unless practices that address this threat are implemented.
Revised Draft Report 31st May
39
Figure 7: Forest and non-forest area statements for the eastern and western sectors
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5.3.2. Carbon Available for Credit
The historical baseline rate of emissions, the annual average emission rate (AAER) for the 1997-2006 period was estimated at 4.18 million tons CO2e. The rate for 2002-2006 was much lower, only 1.01 million tons annually. The future business-as-usual (BAU) emissions level is the level that would be expected without any significant policy changes that would affect the deforestation rate. This was calculated using two potential AADRs (4% and 0.8%) and future baseline estimates of carbon stocks for the years 2016 and 2020. Table 13 shows the credits (five-year annual average) that would result if the entire area were treated as a REDD project using these historical emission baselines as the crediting baseline. Table 13: Carbon available for credit for differing baseline and deforestation rates
Historical Baseline Estimate (AAER)
Amount of Carbon available for credit
(MMTCO2e)
(AADR – 4.0%) (AADR - 0.8%)
1997-2006 (4.18 MMT CO2e)
1.82 3.50
2002-2006 (1.01 MMT CO2e)
0.00 0.33
Thus, if the 1997-2006 AADR rate is used as the baseline, limiting deforestation to no more than 4% each year from 2016 to 2020 would achieve an emission reduction of 1.82 million tons CO2e below the baseline (annual average). Reducing deforestation to just 0.8% annually would achieve a larger 3.5 million tons below the baseline, nearly double the credits from the 4% rate. In contrast, with use of the much lower 2002-2006 baseline, a 4% AADR would fail to reduce emissions below the baseline (and thus to earn any credits). Reducing deforestation to 0.8% would achieve 0.33 million tons for crediting, signficant but far less than the credits under the higher baseline. Estimates of the unit prices for carbon credits on the voluntary and compliance markets ($5 and $20, respectively) were then applied to the values in Table 13. Table 14 highlights the results for the carbon available for credit, calculated from the two baselines modeled and at the differing AADRs for the years 2016-2020. Table 14: Annual value of credit annually for two baselines and deforestation rates
Historical Baseline Estimate (AAER)
Value of Carbon Credits on the voluntary market
(Million US$/yr)
Value of Carbon Credits on the compliance market
(Million US$/yr)
AADR – 4.0% AADR - 0.8% AADR – 4.0% AADR - 0.8%
1997-2006 (4.18 MMT CO2e)
$9.1 $17.5 $36.4 $70.0
2002-2006 (1.01 MMT CO2e)
$0.0 $1.65 $0.0 $6.6
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The differences in historical baselines and average annual deforestation rates all have a major impact on the total value of the credits generated. Use of the higher 1997-2006 baseline generates revenues in the tens of millions, compared to less than $7 million in the highest scenario using the lower 2002-2006 baseline. An AADR of 0.8% produces twice the credit of an AADR of 4.0% when the 1997-2006 baseline is used. Generally speaking, an AADR of 0.8% is currently considered as achievable, as the area of disturbed forests in the case study area available for conversion is diminishing while the remaining forests are within the protected area network. The value of carbon credits on the compliance market in this scenario (US $70 million per annum) is vastly greater than any of the other estimates.
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6. OPPORTUNITY COST ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE LAND USES
This chapter provides a detailed analysis and estimation of the opportunity costs of alternative land uses in the case study area. For the purposes of this study the opportunity cost is defined as: The net income that would be generated if the forest were cleared for agricultural use. The opportunity cost depends on the types of land in the case study area and the specific agriculture crops that are suited to this land. Crops that are popular in Cambodia and suitable to the case study land include maize, soybean, sugarcane and rubber. These four crops were used for the opportunity cost analysis. Two types of data were used in the analysis. The first is time series historical data of study crops and other related variables from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), the National Institute of Statistics (NIS), the World Bank database, FAO, and other relevant sources. The second is data and qualitative information from field interviews with farmers, brokers and other stakeholders that have grown the study crops in several provinces, including Koh Kong. This data included estimates of production costs, prices, and other related information.
6.1. Overview of Study Crops in Cambodia
6.1.1. Soybean Production in Cambodia
Soybean is a tropical crop that is moderately well adapted to many soil types and climatic conditions. It is mostly grown in the main wet season to avoid risk from high temperatures as these limit soybean growth. Soybean crops may be grown twice per year, but are usually planted once per year in rotation with other upland crops such as maize, peanuts, and sesame. Soybean is viewed as a potential industrial crop for agricultural and economic development in Cambodia. It was recognized in Cambodia’s 2007 Trade Integration Strategy for export development, since it is ranked as a medium export potential crop and a low-medium potential crop for human development. Presently, the limited domestic processing capability for Cambodian soybeans results in a strong reliance on markets in neighboring countries. Thailand and Vietnam are thus the near-exclusive importers of Cambodian soybeans for processing and consumption. Soybean is grown in 16 provinces across the country. The majority of production is located in Battambang and Kampong Cham provinces, with average production of 57,928 tons and 41,533 tons per annum, respectively, over the period 2005-2009. Preah Vihear province ranks third with an average production of 10,079 tons per annum during the same period, followed by Pailin and Banteay Meanchey provinces, which produced on average 5,311 tons and 3,644 tons per annum, respectively. Soybean production in Cambodia from 2005-2009 (Figure 8) can be summarized as follows: Total production decreased by 23 percent from 2005-2009, from 179,096 tons to 137,275 tons. This is a result of a contraction in the cultivated area and reduced productivity. The total soybean cultivated area during 2005-2009 shrank by 19 percent from 118,760 hectare (ha) to 96,388 ha; production yield declined by 6 percent (from 1.51 tons/ha to 1.42 tons/ha) over the same period.
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Based on interviews with soybean farmers in Battambang province, the production cost was calculated at approximately US $400 per ha. A major part of the total production cost is land rental fees, which account for about 35 percent of all costs. The remaining costs consist of expenses related to land preparation, seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, and labor. Farmers can receive a price of US $300 per ton for soybeans, equivalent to $426 per hectare in 2009. Figure 8: Cultivated area and production of soybean in Cambodia
Source: Data compiled from MAFF, 2010
6.1.2. Maize Production in Cambodia
Maize is the second main cash crop in Cambodia after paddy rice. It is grown across the country in available cultivated areas. The top five biggest producers of maize are Battambang, Kandal, Kampong Cham, Pailin, and Banteay Meanchey provinces. These provinces generally produce a large amount of maize every year, thanks to their abundant cultivated lands. Figure 9 illustrates the rapid development of maize production in Cambodia in terms of production quantity, cultivated areas, and productivity. The production quantity increased on average 31 percent per annum over the period 2005-2009. Total production increased by 273 percent, reaching 924,026 tons in 2009 (up from only 247,760 tons in 2005). The increase of production is due to expansion in both cultivated areas and increased yields. The cultivated areas of maize rose 144 percent from 90,732 ha in 2005 to 221,287 ha in 2009; at the same time the yield increased from 2.73 tons/ha to 4.18 tons/ha.
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Figure 9: Cultivated area and production of maize in Cambodia
Source: Data compiled from MAFF
The underdeveloped agricultural and irrigation infrastructure in Cambodia ensures that crop production remains dependent upon rainfall. Like many other crops, maize production varies with rainfall, and thus varies from year to year and across provinces. Although maize can be grown twice per year it is usually grown only once, nearly always during the rainy season as Cambodia lacks adequate water sources for year-round farming. The production cycle is four months. The first crop is normally cultivated from March to May, while a second crop may be grown between August and December. In this opportunity cost analysis we assume two maize crops are grown per year. The production cost for maize was calculated based on data gathered from interviews with farmers in Battambang province, which is the biggest maize producer in Cambodia. The total production cost is approximately US $400 per ha. The cost of land preparation is the main part of the total production cost, accounting for about 27 percent of all costs. Farmers may earn up to US $150 per ton for maize, equivalent to $627 per hectare in 2009.
6.1.3. Sugarcane Production in Cambodia
Sugarcane is one of the industrial crops considered as a potential source of significant foreign exchange earnings. It has a huge potential if Cambodia can export value added processed sugar products. There are hopes that sugarcane can contribute to sustainable economic development through large-scale investments in rural provinces. In a bid to attract investment in the sugar industry, the Royal Government of Cambodia may offer a 90-year concession term for sugarcane plantation areas, as well as a tax exemption. The five largest producers of sugarcane are Koh Kong, Kandal, Kampong Cham, Preah Vihear, and Kampot provinces. As sugarcane requires a substantial amount of water when grown as an industrial crop it is normally planted between May and June, when the rainy season begins. Sugarcane’s production cycle is nine months, so it can be produced only once per year.
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Presently, sugarcane is mostly grown on a small-scale household basis and production is principally utilized for domestic consumption; an industrial scale plantation has recently been established in Sector 3 within the case study area. The first substantial export of raw sugar since the industry’s collapse in Cambodia in the 1960’s began in early 2010. Figure 10 illustrates the trend in sugarcane production over the period 2005-2009 in terms of production levels, cultivation areas, and yields. Production totaled 118,164 tons in 2005, rising by 226% to 385,238 tons in 2008 then falling to 350,155 tons in 2009. The productivity of sugar cane over the period 2005-2009 averaged 24.6 tons/ha. The production yield steadily increased from 19.7 tons/ha in 2005 to 29.0 tons/ha in 2008, but it fell to 25.9 tons/ha in 2009. The fall in the yield in 2009 was the major cause of the decrease in total production, as total cultivated area actually increased slightly (from 13,297 ha in 2008 to 13,533 ha in 2009). Field surveys with sugarcane farmers in Kampong Cham province indicate that the total production cost is around US $1,250 per ha. The largest share of the total production cost is chemical and organic fertilizer, which account for about 23% of the total costs, approximately equivalent to US $287 per ha. Land rental and the purchase of small sugar cane seedlings contribute roughly 18 percent and 12 percent of the total production cost, respectively. Farmers can receive US $50 per ton for sugar cane, equivalent to $1,295 per hectare in 2009. Figure 10: Cultivated area and production of sugarcane in Cambodia
Source: Data compiled from MAFF
6.1.4. Rubber Production in Cambodia
Rubber is a crucial economic asset for Cambodia; it is the second largest source of agricultural export earnings after rice. Rubber is grown mainly in Kampong Cham, Ratanakiri, Kratie, Mondulkiri, and Stung Treng provinces where land conditions and availability are favorable. There is also increasing interest in the coastal hinterlands, where a smaller investment in 700 ha of rubber has been initiated recently. There are three groups of rubber growers in Cambodia; state-owned, private, and smallholder rubber plantations. Currently, there are two
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state-owned enterprises, twenty-eight private enterprises, and numerous smallholder rubber plantations in ten provinces. Cambodia normally produces natural rubber and processes it into dry rubber for export to other countries in the region, especially Vietnam. Exports of dry rubber were nearly the same in 2005 and 2009 (over 20,000 tons), though exports dropped in 2007 and 2008. However their export value increased significantly, from US $29.2 million to US $36.3 million per annum over the same period, due to the increase of the unit price on the international market. Data available from MAFF indicates that the area available for rubber production totaled about 107,900 ha in 2008.21 A rubber tree takes approximately 5 to 7 years from planting until maturity before it can be tapped. Its economic cycle lasts from 25 to 30 years. Rubber trees are then cut down for timber and replanted with new seedlings. Rubber wood can then be processed into finished products such as furniture. According to field surveys with household rubber producers in Kampong Cham province, the total production cost of a rubber plantation per ha is approximately US $400 per year for the first five years and US $350 from the sixth year onward. Since rubber needs at least 5 years to be exploitable for tapping, labor costs account for the major part of the total production cost. Producers can earn US $1,700 per ton of raw rubber. Figure 11 displays the trend in dry rubber production in Cambodia in terms of production, tapping area, and yields over the 2005-2009 period. Tapping area gradually decreased from 22,085 ha in 2005 to 16,080 ha in 2008, but then increased to 19,510 hectares in 2009. Productivity of dry rubber fluctuates around one ton/ha as calculated from production levels and tapping areas. It should be noted that soil fertility, the rubber stock and environmental conditions have a major impact on the yield; comparisons of rubber productivity with other countries are therefore unlikely to be meaningful. Figure 11: Cultivated area and production of rubber in Cambodia
Source: Data compiled from MAFF
21
Plantations include lands already utilized for rubber trees and other land available but not yet used for rubber planting.
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6.2. Methods for Economic Analysis
The opportunity cost of alternative land uses is interpreted as the net income generated from the investment, often referred to as the Net Return on Investment (NRI) of each study crop. The analysis is done within a 20-year timeframe, up to 2030, and is calculated on a per hectare basis. This approach is divided into two steps: The first is forest clearance, assumed to be done in the first year after the investor receives a land concession and to require one year to complete. The second step is investment in each study crop, which starts from the second year up to 2030. All costs and prices are expressed in year 2008 US dollars.
6.2.1. Net Return on Investment
The net return on investment is the money gained or lost on an investment in each study crop. It is simplified to the difference between the revenue and expense that includes the investment cost. The formula is summarized as followed: (1) NRIt = TRt– TCt
Where:
NRI: Net Return on Investment TR: Total Revenue TC: Total Expenditure t: Time Series (0 to 20 years)
To estimate the net return of the investment in each crop over the study period, the annual expenditure is assumed constant (in real terms), while the annual revenue varies with the annual productivity and price of each crop. These estimates assume concession land is given to the investor in 2010. As mentioned above, the NRI for the first year is from forest clearance, which is about US $878 in 2010. From the second year onward (2011-2030), the NRI reflects the respective invested crop. NRI per hectare of land for each study crop is then expressed as: (2) NRIt = Pt * PTTt– TC0 Where:
P: Price PTT: Productivity
Total annual costs are assumed to be constant over the study period. The costs in Year One are associated with forest clearance. These include administrative costs associated with obtaining an Economic Land Concession, interest on investment loans, cost of labor and equipment to clear and harvest the forest, and fuel costs to transport the timber. The costs in Year Two and the following years are the production costs of the study crops. These costs include interest on investment loans, cost of seeds, fertilizer and other inputs, cost of labor and equipment to harvest the crops, and fuel costs to transport the crop harvest. The productivity of each study crop was increased over the study period to reach the maximum yield that each crop could achieve on a per hectare basis (Table 15). The yields are assumed to increase at the annual average growth rate in yields observed over the last decade (2000-2009). Once the productivity reaches the maximum level, it is assumed to remain constant for the rest of the study period.
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Table 15: Maximum yields for study crops
Crop Maximum Yield (tons per ha)
Soybean 2.5
Maize 5.5
Sugar cane 32
Rubber 2
The productivity of a crop on a per hectare basis is then expressed as: (3) PTTt = PTT0 * (1+AAGR)t if PTTt<PTTmax Where:
PTT: Yield per hectare AAGR: Annual Average Growth Rate over the past 10 years
6.2.2. Pricing Scenarios
There are three scenarios to forecast the price of the study crops over the study period. The first scenario assumes that the price of each crop remains constant (in real terms) over the study period. The annual average growth rate of the price over the past 10 years was used to estimate the price of each study crop in 2011 at the beginning of the modeling, which was then held constant in subsequent years. The price of the raw product for the Constant Price Scenario was therefore: (4) Price Scenario 1: Pt = P0
The second scenario assumed that the price of each crop increases over the study period at its annual average growth rate over the past 10 years (2000-2009). The price of the raw product for the Constant Price Increase Scenario was therefore: (5) Price Scenario 2: Pt = P0 * (1+AAGR)t
Where: AAGR: Annual Average Growth Rate over last 10 years For the third scenario, the price of each study crop was regressed against the variables gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (derived from annual GDP and population), world market (export) price, and average global oil price. The price of the raw product for the Macro Scenario was therefore: (6) Price Scenario 3: Pt = f(GDP, Population, Export price, Oil price) The GDP growth rate was assumed to be moderate, about 5 to 6 percent per annum per the RGC commitment. Population data was compiled from the 1998 and 2008 census and projected to 2030. Oil prices were taken from the projections developed by the US Energy Information Administration (www.eia.doe.gov). The export price of each crop was compiled from various international sources such as the World Bank, FAO, etc.
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6.2.3. Net Present Value
Finally, the net present value (NPV) of the NRI over the 2010-2030 period was derived using the following formula: (7) NPVt = NRIt / (1 + r)t
Where r is the annual discount rate. A discount rate of 10 percent per year was used for this study, a reasonable value for a less developed country like Cambodia that CCAP has used in other country studies.
6.3. Summary of Results: Opportunity Costs of Study Crops
The results for the opportunity costs (as NRI per hectare) of each study crop on an NPV basis over the 20-year period (Figure 12) indicate that:
The total 20-year NRI from soybean in both Price Scenarios 1 and 3 is the lowest among the study crops and scenarios; under these scenarios soybean production could generate only $2,970 over 20 years.
The NRI for maize is significantly higher than soybean, ranging from $5,374 in Scenario 1 to nearly $9,000 in Scenario 2.
The NRI for sugar cane production is slightly higher than maize in Scenarios 1 and 2, and nearly as high as rubber in the latter scenario ($9,400).
Rubber production gives the highest return in all three scenarios, generating about $10,000 in Scenarios 2 and 3.
Figure 12: 2010 net present value of return on investment
The analysis also shows that among the three different price scenarios Scenario 1 is the lowest, as would be expected given that the price was assumed to remain constant over the study period. For all crops except rubber, Scenario 2 is the highest scenario and Scenario 3 is the moderate scenario. The prices of soybean, sugarcane, and maize in the local market are generally higher than in the international market, giving a larger NRI in Scenario 2. In contrast,
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the NRI for rubber in Scenarios 2 and 3 are nearly the same, as all Cambodian rubber products are for export. If the land were given to investors later than 2010, the production time period and net present value of the NRI would be reduced accordingly. Figure 13 shows the NRI per hectare of crops in Scenario 3 for investments that start later than 2010. For all four crops the NRI drops significantly. The NRI of rubber decreases at a faster pace than that of other study crops due to the long-term nature of investment in rubber plantations. In addition, rubber trees need at least five years to grow before any rubber can be harvested. Forests likely to be cleared soon may thus require higher total payments than areas at lower risk. Figure 13: 2010 net present value of return on investment (NRI) per hectare
6.4. Policy Implications
This analysis demonstrates the importance of identifying which crops are most likely to be grown in specific forest areas if REDD policy is to be properly informed. This can help REDD implementers prioritize forest areas and match them with specific policies. For example, areas suitable for growing high-value crops like rubber and sugar cane clearly will be at greater risk of clearance. In addition, a high-carbon area likely to be planted with soybeans could be a very cost-effective area to target for forest protection; a similar area where sugar cane or rubber production is more likely would be more costly to protect (either as payments or as opportunity costs foregone). The analysis also shows the need to establish which forests are at relative risk of being cleared in the near-term. If an approach based on paying farmers to maintain forests is adopted as part of a REDD Plus program, many forests likely to be cleared soon will require higher total payments than areas at lower risk. In the case of sugar cane, for example, a hectare of forest at risk in 2010 would require total payments nearly one-fourth higher than the payments needed to
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preserve a hectare not likely to be cut until 2015 (Figure 13). Careful prior planning and risk assessment can therefore help to ensure that resources are deployed most effectively under such a program.
6.5. Sensitivity of Analysis
It should be noted that the above results in general represent conservative (high) estimates of the real-world opportunity costs. In the case of maize, for example, we assume two crops per year. In years where farmers grow only one maize crop, however, they are likely to switch to a different crop that consumes less water. The opportunity cost of these crops will typically be lower than maize, and the situation will apply in some cases with soybeans as well. The rate of growth in some of the crop prices is also relatively high in several scenarios. In addition, it should be kept in mind that the analysis presented here assumes 100% of the forest area (one hectare in this case) is cleared in the first year. The situation will therefore look very different when crops are planted across wide areas of forest: more remote areas will not be cleared until later years, lowering the average opportunity costs significantly from those evaluated above. The results presented here will therefore not be comparable to those in other studies that look at opportunity costs of forest clearance over time on a regional or national basis. The following chapter explores how these results would change when the forest in the target area is cleared incrementally over the 20-year study period.
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7. THE COST OF REDD IN THE KOH KONG TARGET AREA
7.1. Approach and Methods
This chapter analyzes what the opportunity costs would be when the forest is cleared incrementally over the 20-year study period. Using the opportunity cost results from the last section, the CCAP project team conducted an analysis to estimate the cost of preserving the carbon stocks in the target area over a 20-year period (2010-2030). The approach was inspired by the 2007 Woods Hole Research Center study of the Brazilian Amazon.22
We assume 5% (2,200 ha) of the forest in the target area (43,911 ha) is cleared annually to plant each of the four crops, starting in 2010. This specific rate was assumed so that the entire target area is cleared within the 20-year period of analysis. Based on an estimated 291.96 tons CO2e per hectare (Chapter 4), the total carbon stocks for the target area are 12.8 million tons CO2e. The analysis uses the same three Price Scenarios described above, shown below as S1, S2, and S3. All costs are NPV in 2010, expressed in 2008 US dollars.
7.2. Results - Net Present Value
The analysis of NPV ($/ha) was conducted for soybean, maize, sugar cane, and rubber (Table 16). In the case of rubber, however, this analysis is less meaningful due to the long-term nature of investment in rubber plantations. As discussed in Chapter 6, rubber harvesting requires a five to seven-year lead-time, so as the year approaches the end of the 20-year period the opportunity cost becomes negative. We therefore present only one set of results (the opportunity cost per hectare) for illustrative purposes for this crop, and focus the analysis on the other three. Table 16: Net present value per hectare for the target area
Crop S1 S2 S3
Soybean $ 1,484 $ 2,536 $ 1,643
Maize $ 2,223 $ 4,364 $ 2,963
Sugar cane $ 2,330 $ 4,588 $ 4,553
Rubber $ 1,725 $ 2,708 $ 2,613 The opportunity costs per hectare to preserve the target area for the next 20 years range from a low of $1,484 for soybean (S1) to a high of $4,588 for sugar cane (S3) and $4,364 for maize (S2). They are much lower than in the original analysis for 2010 (Figure 12), as 95% of the forest is assumed to be cleared after 2010. Clearing the forest in later years extends the time period of the discounting, giving a lower NPV (and reducing the total opportunity cost) as the years progress.
22
Nepstad et al, The Costs and Benefits of Reducing Carbon Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in the Brazilian Amazon, Woods Hole Research Center, 2007. Available at http://www.whrc.org/policy/pdf/cop13/WHRC_Amazon_REDD.pdf.
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The results in Table 16 are generally comparable to those found in studies for other countries.23 The price and other assumptions already noted and the relatively rapid rate of forest clearance (5% annually) may make those presented in Table 16 somewhat higher than average. Table 17: Total opportunity cost for the target area (million $)
Crops S1 S2 S3
Soybean $ 65.1 $ 111.3 $ 72.2
Maize $ 97.6 $ 191.6 $ 130.1
Soybean/Maize $ 81.4 $ 151.5 $ 101.1
Sugar Cane $ 102.3 $ 201.4 $ 199.9
Soybean/Maize: assumes a 50/50 area split between crops
The total opportunity cost (NPV) ranges from $65 million for soybeans (S1) to $200 million for sugar cane. It is also worth noting that the cost for maize is nearly as high as sugar cane for the first two scenarios. The opportunity cost for the Soy/Maize crop mix ranges from $80 million (S1) to over $150 million (S2), assuming that half the cultivated area is planted with each crop each year. Accordingly, the average opportunity cost per ton CO2e preserved varies from a low of just over $5 for soybean to a maximum of $15.7 for sugar cane (Table 18). Table 18: Average cost per ton carbon preserved ($/ton CO2e)
Crops S1 S2 S3
Soybean $ 5.08 $ 8.68 $ 5.63
Maize $ 7.62 $ 14.95 $ 10.15
Soy/Maize $ 6.35 $ 11.82 $ 7.89
Sugar Cane $ 7.98 $ 15.71 $ 15.59
7.2.1. Policy Lessons Learned from the Case Study
The case study presented here supports several conclusions which are highly relevant for the formulation of a policy options framework for REDD. The total opportunity cost (NPV basis) represents the amount farmers and others involved in agricultural production in the region would have to receive to make it profitable for them to preserve the forest for 20 years instead of clearing it. In this analysis, the total cost of preserving the nearly 44,000 ha forest in the target area would range from $65 million to $200 million dollars. Some or all of this cost could potentially be paid for through receipt of carbon payments from carbon sales on voluntary or compliance markets for REDD. Under the assumptions used here,
23
See for example Grieg-Gran, The Cost of Avoiding Deforestation, October 2006, which estimated opportunity costs of soybeans in two Latin American countries at US $2,135 (2005 dollars) and maize and cassava in Ghana at $1,052.
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the total average opportunity cost of protecting the carbon stocks at the target area in Koh Kong province is higher ($5 to $16/ton carbon dioxide equivalent) than most carbon prices currently available on the voluntary market ($5 per ton or less); agriculture is therefore more profitable at present than development of a voluntary REDD project in the target area. Reliance solely on carbon market payments to cover the costs of protecting these forests would require access to a future compliance market under an international climate change agreement, where prices are likely to be higher. While the timing of the anticipated compliance market for REDD remains uncertain, participation in it could yield substantial net revenue streams for the country, and could provide the funds needed to cover opportunity and other costs (implementation, administration) of REDD and, possibly, income to the national treasury.
7.2.2. Sensitivity of Analysis
The analysis conducted for this study is dependent upon several key assumptions; modification of them could produce different results for both the costs per hectare and the carbon content analysis. The price, economic and carbon assumptions are noted in the previous chapters. Some in-country analysts further suggested that the:
291.96 ton CO2e/ha assumed carbon content of the forest could be somewhat high; use of a lower value would increase the average cost of carbon.
Portion of the commercial timber trees listed in the FAO inventory that were assumed to be removed during the post-war period may have been lower than the total that were larger than the legal cut regulations. Reducing the portion of trees to be removed would increase the carbon content of the forest and lower the average cost per ton carbon preserved.
Annual rate of forest clearance assumed in the target area (5%) is relatively high; use of a lower rate would extend the opportunity costs farther into the future thereby lowering the average cost of carbon. Nevertheless, any policy change that opened up the coastal forests to conversion quickly would result in rapid conversion rates.
It should also be noted that the impact of damage to non-target trees during timber harvesting has not been considered. This may be as high as high as 48 to 60% of the residual commercial trees (> 10 cm dbh) during uncontrolled logging operations, or 30% where reduced impact logging is practiced (Sasaki and Putz 2009). On balance, we view that the assumed carbon content is more likely to be lower, rather than higher than, the 291.96 ton CO2e/ha used here, and that the average cost of carbon could therefore be higher. Nevertheless, sensitivity analyses of one or more of these assumptions could provide useful additional data to REDD policymakers in Cambodia. This work was beyond the scope of the current effort, but may be considered in a follow-up phase of the CCAP project. Other potential areas of research could include incorporating the impact of enhancing carbon stocks and the foregone revenues from NTFPs into the cost and carbon analysis, and the added value gained from nature-based tourism sector.
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8. POLICY BLUEPRINT: PROTECTED AREAS AND REDD PLUS IN CAMBODIA
8.1. Purpose
This chapter explores the policy dimensions of how Cambodia’s existing protected area system can be developed in support of a national REDD Plus program. It is not intended as prescriptive, but rather aims to inform and support the policy development process now underway among Cambodian government agencies and other stakeholders. It begins with a brief synopsis of the basic principles needed for effective policy. Recommendations for key policy elements, discussion of barriers and challenges, and guidance for implementation are then presented.
8.2. Principles for a Policy Framework
A workable national policy framework for REDD Plus in protected areas must respond to a set of fundamental requirements which are not country or site specific if it is to satisfy both national protected areas objectives and international REDD standards. It must also respond to the opportunities and constraints presented by Cambodian national and local natural resource endowments and to institutional and human capacities. The following principles outline the fundamental requirements of a policy framework for REDD Plus in protected areas:
A REDD Plus program should preserve carbon and enhance biodiversity values in protected areas and protection forests.
REDD Plus should prioritize the protection of natural forests in protected areas, including both mature and degraded forests which act as carbon sinks and mitigate climate change.
Particular emphasis should be placed on eliminating leakage and enhancing carbon stocks through the protection of vulnerable forest areas and rehabilitation of degraded forests.
Synergies between REDD Plus and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) should be harnessed to enhance the effectiveness of protected area management at national, sub-national and local scales and enhance the realization of co-benefits of both programs.
A REDD Plus program for protected areas should embrace the ecosystems approach adopted by the CBD24 to ensure viable landscapes with adequate connectivity between natural areas.
8.3. Policy Elements
8.3.1. National Protected Areas System Plan
A national protected areas system plan with a REDD Plus dimension must take account of the integrity of each individual protected area and of the overall system.25 Existing and likely future threats to individual components and to their inter-relationships need to be identified. Protection
24
The ecosystems approach was adopted by the Conference of Parties to the CBD as the primary framework for addressing the three objectives of the convention, COP 5 Decision V/6 and COP 7 Decision VII/11. 25
With respect to areas under the jurisdiction of the MOE, Cambodia’s Protected Areas Law includes a number of provisions for the management of individual protected areas as well of the integrity of the national system, including a requirement to develop a National Protected Areas Strategic Management Plan.
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requirements must be prioritized, considering the value of the biodiversity and ecosystem services that the CBD and REDD Plus aim to preserve and enhance, the probability of success, and resources available for protection. The zoning framework provides a tool for integrating effective planning and implementation at the cluster, regional, and national levels. Working at all three levels provides synergies to enhance institutional arrangements and capacity building for implementation, and to prioritize areas with corresponding allocation of resources, training and institutional responsibility. Furthermore, a system plan should capitalize on potential synergies with regional planning and cluster level implementation strategies. This can enhance institutional arrangements for implementing activities and prioritize areas for action.
8.3.2. Rehabilitation of Forests
Forest degradation is a significant source of carbon emissions, and is potentially as significant as deforestation. Cambodian protected areas and their adjacent lands contain substantial areas of degraded and secondary forest suitable for rehabilitation through natural or assisted regeneration26 (of their species composition and physiognomic form and their attendant biodiversity values). Alternatively, some degraded forest may be restored through use as semi-natural managed systems. These include hybrid systems of natural stands under-planted with high value crops such as coffee, and/or enrichment planted with natural species such as Crasna (Aquilaria) and Tepiru (Cinnamomum). More intensively managed systems, including agro-forestry and woodlots managed for fuel wood by adding value with silvicultural techniques, may also be available for areas that are not suitable for rehabilitation.
8.3.3. Matching the Zoning System with REDD Plus Objectives
The zoning system offers a tool for effective integration of land use planning and implementation of activities, at cluster, regional and national levels. Looking at the zones at the protected area system level provides opportunities to balance conservation gains with development requirements across larger landscape units. More specifically, promotion of enhanced carbon stocks through restoration as a major objective of the Sustainable Use Zones can provide economic justification for land uses that support conservation values and other co-benefits. This is consistent with the current functions of the Sustainable Use Zones that include the following activities: national cultural and heritage, ecotourism, wildlife conservation, environment-friendly resin exploitation and recreational services, biological rehabilitation, community protected areas, and botanic gardens, as well as infrastructure developments including irrigation, reservoirs, hydro-electricity and electric networks, and mining. Most of these activities have a clear potential to support protected area objectives; however the inclusion of mining and infrastructure engenders particular challenges to both protected area and REDD Plus programs.
26
See chapter 9 for a fuller discussion of rehabilitation and related concepts.
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If the Sustainable Use Zones managed under REDD Plus and protected area objectives were substantial, the cash flows resulting from REDD Plus may compete with alternative land uses such as mining, thereby enhancing both the conservation and economic values of the protected area.
8.3.4. Prioritization for Investment in Rehabilitation
The zoning scheme provides opportunities for enhancing carbon stocks under the REDD Plus framework in several areas: i) undegraded forests allocated to the Core Zone could be supported under the newly recognized and substantial prospect of credits for enhancement of carbon stocks in mature forests (as recognized in the draft UNFCCC text on REDD); ii) forest rehabilitation through regeneration of degraded natural forests may be focused in the Conservation Zone and Sustainable Use Zone; while iii) managed systems for restoration are to be limited to the SUZ and Local Community Zones. Areas that are heavily degraded and not amenable to rehabilitation or other uses in support of conservation objectives could be considered for excision within a protected areas strategic planning framework rather than one an ad hoc basis.
8.3.5. Decentralization
REDD Plus is not like an environmental impact assessment process undertaken at the beginning of a development project, in that long-term active presence at forest sites is required. In this, a REDD Plus scheme mirrors successful protected area management. Sustained engagement over long, inter-generational time frames is required to adapt plans and measures effectively to changing circumstances and challenges. Sustained and effective communications are needed to develop effective responses, in real time, to field realities such as fire, land grabs, poaching etc. Long-term requirements for a presence can only be met by investment in institutional, organizational and human capacity building at the sub-national level – village, commune and district. Implementation of REDD Plus requires coordinated land-use and economic development planning. However, inter-sectoral and sub-national planning in Cambodia is still a work in progress, and planning horizons at the local level are usually very short-term. A REDD Plus program may provide both the driver for enhanced coordination and funds for its implementation, nationally and at the local commune level. How such implementation can be harmonized with the decentralization work of the NCDD and with the regional administrative framework of the Forestry Administration and the cluster-based protected area management strategies of the MOE, as well as with the bio-regional considerations underlying the protected area framework, are key areas needing further exploration. Three key elements for the successful establishment of a program point to the need for decentralization. These are participation, benefit sharing and their relationship to the existing levels of planning. Effective participation requires that local communities, from the village to the provincial level, be actively engaged in awareness raising and decision-making. While prior informed consent is of utmost importance to understanding the impacts of large projects (industrial logging, dams, mining roads, etc.), the implementation of REDD Plus requires, in addition, sustained and effective engagement over longer time frames (up to 30 years or more).
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This indicates that those who are “on the ground” must have an adequate level of social cohesion to ensure effective communication, and be able to develop agreed responses to positive or negative developments in time, address conflict resolution needs, ensure adequate levels of awareness for effective program adaptation and reporting, and ensure that viable forest landscapes will be protected and rights and obligations transferred on to the next generation. These requirements can only be met through investment in institutional and capacity building at the village, commune and other local levels. Benefit sharing requires that gains associated with forest conservation are fairly distributed to those who do the work and those involved with the delivery of supporting services. This work concerns the less intensive land use management of semi-natural systems, patrolling and enforcement within relevant zones, technical support to production systems, and marketing of such commodities as sustainable rattan, bamboo products and organic farming systems, as well as associated program administrative functions. Only a locally based system can be sufficiently fine-tuned to administer, manage and report on program implementation. Systems without frequent tangible and visible returns to all stakeholders will be prone to failures. A dual income model is therefore required, to sustain livelihoods of participants and to maintain the investment of local institutional attention and resources in sustainable use activities specified in the particular REDD Plus agreement. Regular and transparently delivered benefits from carbon credits are therefore essential for all stakeholders to complement incomes from agricultural and forest based production. Moreover, effective participation and benefit sharing are inter-dependent and build the foundation for successful and long-term conservation planning. Without regular benefit sharing participation levels and program performance are likely to drop. Furthermore, those communities working with semi-natural managed systems are unlikely to remain viable without additional sources of income, leading to failures within the Sustainable Use Zones and subsequent increased pressures on the core and conservation zones.
8.3.6. Fund-based Structures
Conservation funding in support of CBD objectives and REDD Plus funding can combine naturally in the zoned protected area system, to help ensure consistency in management. Such a combination may be implemented on the basis of clusters or individual areas; but should not be zone-based. Conservation funding can balance REDD Plus funding, through local government, to ensure protected area objectives are retained as primary goals that have synergies with, rather than being subsidiary to, other local development objectives. Regarding effective implementation, a fund-based structure also seems the most appropriate tool at the local and regional level. A national REDD Plus strategy that incorporates various objectives (e.g., biodiversity, local development, enfranchisement of indigenous peoples) will be more appealing to the international community, and so more likely to obtain funding. This fund-based structure will result in larger cash flows from carbon credits through the higher marketability of “premium” credits derived from their value in delivering co-benefits, including biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation, where adherence to safeguards is demonstrated. In addition, increased cash flow from carbon credits may enhance the level of biodiversity funds that are actually committed.
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8.4. Barriers and Challenges
The above policy overview implies strongly that implementing a REDD Plus program requires effective planning and coordinated responses, across jurisdictions, institutions and sectors. The problem in Cambodia today (as in many countries) is how to enable and ensure effective implementation of regional planning within Cambodia and cross-sector harmonization. Cross-sector and interagency coordination of decision making and implementation of activities is limited, land use objectives are neither vertically nor horizontally harmonized, inter- and intra-ministerial competition can be problematic, and there is ad hoc, inconsistent and selective implementation of existing land use plans (as evidenced by prioritizing economic land concessions over local planning processes). Indigenous peoples’ rights under the land law and other laws are frequently challenged. With respect to mandates of ministries, there is an inherent conflict of interest in being both a land use planner and a land manager. On the ground, there is inadequate delineation and demarcation of forest and protected area boundaries, and a distinct lack of law enforcement capacity. At the local level, resource management is subject to a variety of shocks, which make long-term planning and implementation rather problematic. At the community level, planning horizons are short and capability is low for addressing problems that may require rapid, concerted and intensive responses. Illegal land and resource use activities by outsiders, rapid rise and fall of investment projects, and unresolved conflicts between individuals, communities, businesses and authorities complicate the problem. There is a need for adequate incentives and conflict resolution mechanisms. Local structures need to be empowered to take on greater responsibility and ownership over natural resources. Awareness raising among community members will be enhanced by regular visible payments of REDD Plus funds, perhaps quarterly via the Commune Development Fund (CDF), for identified local investments. This will in turn strengthen demand for more effective participation and service delivery. Third party monitoring of activities and outcomes will also be required, perhaps via mechanisms now being piloted by NCDD with NGOs.
8.5. Potential Co-Benefits
The following is an indicative list of the co-benefits of forest protection which may be enhanced through a REDD Plus scheme in protected areas: Biodiversity Conservation
Maintenance and rehabilitation of forest cover will contribute greatly to the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity. The maintenance of ecosystem integrity will strengthen the area’s resilience to climate change, as well as enable the conservation and sustainable use of diverse tropical forests and contribute to the conservation of endangered species.
Ecosystem Services
The maintenance of forest cover will help regulate stream flows, thus ensuring dry season water availability and reducing flood disasters. These benefits have significant implications for agriculture, fisheries, water supply and sanitation, and public health.
Development of Eco-tourism
Cambodia has considerable potential to develop nature-based tourism industries as a significant economic activity, building on the drawing power of its cultural heritage which attracts large
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numbers of tourists annually. Cambodia needs to provide substantive access infrastructure and services for ecotourism destinations, while maintaining the inherent values of the natural landscapes that tourists wish to visit.
Protected Areas Management
The generation of revenue from carbon credits can contribute substantially to the management of protected areas. This will include support to required park infrastructure, development and implementation of effective resource planning and management strategies, enforcement strategies, community liaison and development, and visitor services.
Maintenance and enhancement of local community and women‟s rights
The maintenance of forest cover is essential to the ability of local communities to retain their rights over their own lands and access to forest resources that support local livelihoods. Traditional roles of women are also significantly affected by land conflicts and loss of access to land, as well as loss of forest areas. An enhanced protected area system can help to protect these rights and opportunities.
Maintenance and enhancement of non-timber forest product flow
In addition to the maintenance of community rights to access forest areas, the maintenance of forest cover protects and enhances the contribution of NTFPs to local and provincial economies, and provides a basis for the development of value-added products such as sandalwood, bamboo or medicinal and aromatic plants.
International commitments
Finally, realizing these benefits can contribute to strengthening Cambodia’s role as a “global citizen” through its support for a range of international agreements. These include agreements on climate change, biodiversity conservation, land degradation and desertification, and the protection and rights of traditional communities.
8.6. Implementation Guidance
8.6.1. Technical Guidance
An ecological framework for a forest typology is required if REDD Plus program is to fully accommodate protected area objectives. This should focus on field studies of the dynamic nature of plant communities rather than limit work to mapping exercises through remote sensing. Field studies describing floristic, physiognomic and environmental patterns provide a basis for the understanding of vegetation ecology that is required to effectively identify conservation priorities, improving measurement of forest degradation and identifying appropriate priorities and pathways for forest rehabilitation. This requires a concerted effort to develop a cadre of plant ecologists to counter the current prevailing emphasis on capacity building for production foresters, remote sensing and GIS, and zoologists. Management planning should be approached on a landscape basis by developing a zoning system for protected forests on a regional basis rather than on an individual protected area basis. A cluster-based approach to the planning and implementation of protected areas based on bio-regions would help to achieve this objective. Furthermore, it is important to rationalize boundaries of protected areas and management zones so that they will be recognizable and enforceable
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8.6.2. Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV)
Overall technical monitoring and verification will be remote sensing and GIS based, confirmed by verifiers in the field. These activities will have to be of sufficient standard if they are to attract buyers willing to pay the compliance market prices that are required to compete with the opportunity costs of alternative land uses and provide financial resources for the local and national community. However, REDD Plus looks beyond technical carbon measurements. Social and environmental safeguards range from species conservation to livelihood and land rights issues. These standards form key elements in a national REDD Plus program. In addition, several REDD schemes (e.g., UN-REDD, FCPF) acknowledge the need for independent third party monitoring and verification to ensure, on the one hand, the validity of carbon accounting, and on the other evaluate whether issues related to forest governance, indigenous peoples’ rights, benefit sharing and financial management are adequately addressed within REDD Plus implementation activities. For Cambodia, a layered system of independent monitoring is recommended, primarily involving civil society and research institutions, but enabling linkages with the government’s own evaluation mechanisms. While authority for climate change matters has been given to the National Committee for Climate Change, reporting must ultimately be to the national government, via the Council of Ministers (COM). At the technical level there are at least two possible institutional mechanisms for analysis and reporting: the National Audit Authority and the M&E framework of the NCDD. The process should also involve linkages with the National Forest Programme and protected areas, while linkages with provinces should be strengthened, possibly through NCDD’s existing system for monitoring and evaluation and its piloting of environmental and social safeguards with local level project investments.
8.6.3. Integration with Land Use Planning
Compliance with emerging international standards for REDD Plus carbon accounting under the UNFCCC and other forums will require a national approach to REDD Plus rather than a sub-national one based on projects. A national carbon accounting system will address concerns over leakage associated with sub-national REDD projects that can contribute to carbon loss in adjacent areas or other regions within the country. In addition, national programs can reduce the potential vulnerability of projects whose effectiveness may be compromised by uncoordinated land use planning and competition from other sectors. In the Cambodian context, there is no cross-sector framework for coordinating competing demands on land at the national or regional levels. Therefore the viability of future long term REDD Plus projects is extremely vulnerable. The recent announcement of plans for a titanium mine in one of the proposed REDD pilot sites in south-west Cambodia is a case in point, as is the allocation of mining exploration rights over large parts of Virachey National Park in the north-east. For REDD Plus initiatives to gain the trust of investors and to remain viable and productive over time, a high level inter-sector national body is required. This body would strengthen cross-sector approaches to national and regional land use planning, and allocate lands to end uses based upon transparency in information sharing, participatory processes and conflict resolution. A “Land Conservation Council” may be required to undertake national and regional land use planning to ensure a productive landscape in support of the broad spectrum of national
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development objectives. The Land Conservation Council should include broad representation of government and non-government sectors to ensure more informed discussion of land use options. This structure would ensure that broad public participation informs the land use planning process and prevents competing agencies from undertaking uncoordinated land allocations. This Council would require political backing from the highest levels of government, and should perhaps be created as an independent statutory authority backed by its own legislation that will also outline its relationship to Cambodia’s Council on Land Policy and other state agencies. While this council would have a much broader function in Cambodia than REDD Plus issues alone, it would take into account recommendations and suggestions from a designated body of experts that could be either situated within, or be separate from, the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC).
8.6.4. Inter Agency Coordination
The NCCC serves as the agency responsible for climate change policy and is chaired by the MoE, which is also responsible for reporting to the UNFCCC/COP (Figure 14). It may assume an oversight role for a national REDD Plus program in support of ensuring a separation of implementation and oversight roles, as well as to ensure consistency in national reporting arrangements with other sectors. While line agencies such as the FA and GDANCP have technical roles as coordinators of REDD Plus activities and as service providers (e.g. resource management, law enforcement, support to communities), decentralized structures will be required for implementation. The role of village, commune and district level institutions as a basis for REDD Plus implementation can build on existing capacities (NCDD, CLUP, community protected areas and community forests. etc.). This will enable the use of established administrative systems to ensure interactive engagement at the local level, to address problems rapidly and issue regular visible payments. Finally, the UNFCCC requires independent third party monitoring to review program performance and governance. This should be independent from both government and program implementation and provided with a strong mandate. There would be some merit in having a focal point for REDD Plus at the Council of Ministers, to ensure effective communications and facilitate implementation of decisions. A national auditor would assist the NCCC in assessing program implementation for REDD and other sectors with particular reference to program effectiveness, the efficiency of service delivery, benefit distribution and financial controls.
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Figure 14: Potential coordination arrangements in support of a national REDD Plus program
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9. POLICY BLUEPRINT: ENHANCEMENT OF CARBON STOCKS THROUGH FOREST REHABILITATION
The Bali Action Plan called for mitigation of climate change through a number of measures including, inter alia, consideration of policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries. Enhancement of carbon stocks was further recognized as a key “Plus” element of REDD in subsequent UNFCCC texts. A number of key issues related to this policy remain to be decided, including agreement on baselines, MRV and other aspects. Carbon stock enhancement can potentially include rehabilitating degraded forests, enrichment planting for healthy forests, and reforestation for lands cleared post-1990 (which are not eligible for CDM). It is not yet clear which of them will be included in the definition, or if and how ”the enhancement of forest carbon stocks” is to be distinguished from conservation and the sustainable management of forests. Nor have the specific methodologies to be used for each been developed.
Despite these uncertainties, however, enhancement holds significant promise for global REDD policy, and it will likely be a prominent feature of national REDD Plus strategies of many developing countries. A broad-range development of detailed policy recommendations for enhancement of carbon stocks for Cambodia was beyond the scope of this analysis. The team did however conduct a preliminary quantitative estimate of enhanced sequestration potential of the target area through the regeneration of the native forest, and here discuss key issues associated with implementation of enhancement policy in developing countries in general. A more in-depth evaluation of this policy may be conducted in a follow-up phase of the CCAP project.
9.1. Quantitative Analysis
As part of the Cambodia case study, the team estimated the carbon enhancement potential from forest rehabilitation in the 43,911 ha target area in Koh Kong province. As discussed in Chapter 4, it was assumed that these forests can recover up to a level equivalent to 70% of the original (pre-logging) carbon content over a 30-year period. Based on the pre-logging and current carbon stock estimates (531 tons CO2e per ha and 292 tons per ha, respectively), forest regeneration could therefore increase forest carbon stocks by an average of 2.66 tons CO2e/ha annually; or by 53 tons/ha over 20 years, and 79.86 tons/ha over 30 years. Total carbon stocks in the target area could – assuming linear growth - increase by 1.17 million tons CO2e (9%) over 10 years, 2.34 million tons CO2e (18%) over 20 years, and 3.50 million tons CO2e (27%) over 30 years.
9.2. Policy Discussion
This analysis demonstrates that a high potential for additional carbon sequestration exists in some areas in Cambodia. This offers a range of benefits for Cambodia and other countries undertaking REDD Plus. It can increase the total GHG reduction potential of individual projects and programs and lower the opportunity costs (on a per ton of carbon saved basis), thereby making REDD schemes more competitive with alternative land uses. Forest rehabilitation can help to ensure permanence by providing incentives to improve the health of existing forest
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stands, and contributes to the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity.27 It can also promote development through community forestry -- a policy in which Cambodia is already well-engaged and experienced -- and through increased revenues from non-timber forest products (NTFPs).
Enhancement approaches are not without risks, however, and such programs must be designed and implemented only after careful ecological evaluation. There is a problem of perverse incentives, where some actors could potentially use forest rehabilitation in one area to cover degradation or unsustainable use of forests in another. In addition, measurement of carbon stock increases through enhancement programs will be difficult to distinguish from natural regeneration without an adequate inventory and accounting frameworks. This would complicate efforts to evaluate the success of such policies and obtain funding for them. It is thus important that the UNFCCC develop, and REDD managers implement, robust definitions and corresponding MRV methodologies to ensure additionality and market acceptance.
9.3. Barriers and Implementation Guidance
Current definitions as provided in the Marrakesh Accords28 do not yet address this issue clearly. While the use of the term “promotion of natural seed sources” may be interpreted to distinguish between native forests and plantations this remains open to interpretation; even though some may consider that plantations would be included under the term “revegetation.” The tendency to assume that the distinction between afforestation and reforestation constitutes a natural dichotomy is also misleading and hampers the identification of a solution. More recently, a number of groups have proposed the inclusion of forest restoration in the enhancement of carbon stocks (e.g., RECOFTC 2009).
This conceptual issue could be resolved by adopting an ecosystems approach as the parties to the CBD have done. We consider that the primary distinction to be made is between restoration of native forest ecosystems and the afforestation of bare lands into tree crops primarily for commercial purposes, irrespective of whether the target species are native or not. Forest “rehabilitation” as discussed in the analysis of the target area presented above is considered as that form of “restoration” that aims to restore the natural species composition and physiognomic form of the original forest (along with the attendant biodiversity values), through natural regeneration in degraded forest areas where there is enough residual biota for this to be possible. In contrast, reforestation is considered as that form of “restoration” that concerns efforts to restore the native forest ecosystem, and attendant carbon stock, through tree planting on cleared land or in severely degraded forests for which there is no realistic hope that natural regeneration is possible.
“Afforestation”, “restoration”, “reforestation” and “rehabilitation” are considered to be management terms describing different options for enhancement. In this sense, the enhancement of forest carbon stocks is to be considered as a pathway to achieving the conservation and the sustainable management of forests rather than as distinct from them. In contrast, “regeneration” and “degradation” are descriptions of ecological processes irrespective
27 As required by the draft decision on land use, land-use change and forestry attached to Decision 11/CP.7 of the
Marrakech Accords and decision CP/13 of the Bali Action Plan, which recognizes that reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries can promote co-benefits and may complement the aims and objectives of other relevant international conventions and agreements, 28
The annex to Decision 11/CP.7 entitled “Definitions, modalities, rules and guidelines relating to land use, land-use change and forestry activities under the Kyoto Protocol” provides definitions for the terms forest, afforestation, reforestation, deforestation and revegetation.
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of the extent to which humans influence them. Thus regeneration may be natural or assisted, while degradation may include both rapid exploitation of timber and the simplification of forest composition and structure by fire over the course of decades, or perhaps even by climate change itself.
To be effective and to achieve the goals of REDD Plus, clearer definitions are required. Reformulating the current definitions within the framework of an ecosystems approach, we may propose the following hierarchy of terms:
Restoration: The re-establishment of native forest ecosystems on degraded, severely degraded or bare lands through both “rehabilitation” and “reforestation”;
o Rehabilitation: The restoration of the natural species composition and physiognomic form of the original forest, along with the attendant biodiversity and carbon values, in degraded forest areas where there is enough residual biota for natural regeneration to be possible, either with or without low intensity management interventions.
o Reforestation: the restoration of the native forest ecosystem, along with aspects of its attendant biodiversity and carbon stock, on non-forested or severely degraded forest lands for which there is no realistic hope that natural regeneration is possible without direct human-induced conversion through wide-scale planting or trees, seeding and/or other heavily assisted means for the promotion of natural seed sources.
Afforestation: The direct human-induced conversion of land into forest for commercial use that has not been forested for a specified period through direct human-induced conversion by planting or seeding irrespective of whether the target species are native or not.
We note that with the use of these definitions the term “revegetation” as defined under the Marrakech Accords29 would then become redundant, while the definition of “deforestation” -– the direct human-induced conversion of forested land to non-forested land – remains valid, though worthy of further clarification with respect to the timeframes involved. REDD Plus implementers should therefore conduct a detailed inventory of vegetation patterns and dynamics of both mature/pristine forests and the degraded lands to be enhanced. These studies will be critical identifying if forest areas area suitable for restoration or not, and in determining pathways to rehabilitation or reforestation; or whether lands should be allocated to afforestation or other non-forest uses.
To the extent that it is consistent with an ecosystems approach, enhancement programs should also be integrated into forest and protected area management practices, including Cambodia’s community forestry programs. As stated above, this can include the use of NTFP-producing species in restoration schemes where possible, or fuelwood production in afforestation schemes. The revenues should then be built into the evaluation of costs.
Perverse incentives can be further addressed with requirements for robust and wide-scale MRV that match definitions developed within the framework of an ecosystems approach, for extension of the project reporting area to capture leakage, and/or separate tracking and reporting of deforestation, degradation and regeneration in forest areas and stands where
29
Revegetation as defined in the Marakech Accords is a direct human-induced activity to increase carbon stocks on sites through the establishment of vegetation that covers a minimum area of 0.05 hectares and does not meet the definitions of afforestation and reforestation
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enhancement is proposed. In this way, enhancement programs can also strengthen safeguards against the use of introduced species used in afforestation schemes which may be invasive, promote forest fire or disease outbreaks, or that engender trade-offs with co-benefits, For example, tree species well-suited for increasing carbon contents may not always be the most ideal for flood control or enhancement of biodiversity. Effective enhancement of carbon stocks will also need to ensure that the forest has not already passed the point of non-recovery, which can weaken the appeal of both individual REDD projects and national REDD programs to international investors.
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10. NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF CAMBODIA ANALYSIS
The CCAP Cambodia REDD study produced a number of useful insights for international REDD policy and for other developing countries considering REDD, in addition to its focus on Cambodia. These include important lessons for capacity building, policy, baselines and scale. These are discussed in more detail below.
10.1. Capacity
The collection of a full range of historical data should be a key priority for implementers of REDD policy worldwide. The CCAP Cambodia study highlighted the value of historical forestry data. In addition to the data collected since 1997, the use of several key sources from the 1960s and 1970s (FAO 1971, Hozumi et al. 1969) enabled the CCAP team to reconstruct a detailed overview of how forest areas and carbon stocks in the case study area have changed from the pre-logging period though the 1990s and into the present day. The use of this 40-year old data also enabled the team to produce a quantitative estimate of the available potential for increasing carbon stocks in the target area, and led to the identification of forest rehabilitation in support of REDD objectives as a useful policy focus. This is significant, as most of the attention given to collection of forestry data so far for REDD implementation has focused on data since 1990, when climate change first became a major focus of attention. As the Cambodia study shows, however, collection of data before this period can lead to important advances in understanding deforestation patterns and forest ecologies, and shed light on drivers and available policy options for the future.
International and national REDD initiatives should therefore endeavor to identify additional data farther back in time that to date may have been overlooked. It is likely that much of this data may be found outside the country of focus and that access to some of these is limited (as was the case with the FAO study); the potential importance and usefulness may also not be apparent to the keepers of such data. There is thus a need for a collaborative search effort; the UNFCCC and/or the REDD+ Partnership could lead the way with an international program to search historical records and studies to collect such information. The creation of a global database to release and share it would be helpful as well.
National and international REDD Readiness efforts should include identifying and supporting basic analytical capacity, as well as REDD-specific needs. Much of the focus so far in the “Readiness” phase of international REDD has been on building REDD-specific capacity for implementation, including development of forest inventories, carbon accounting methods, MRV, and pilot projects.
The work undertaken for this Cambodia study however indicates that some less developed countries committed to REDD will first require more basic assistance in econometric and cost analysis and other areas. In this regard, an important finding was that while Cambodia has agricultural and economic analysts, it lacks highly skilled forest ecologists experienced in researching vegetation dynamics and linking them to the design of management frameworks. Indeed, international environmental organizations sometimes lack capacities in vegetation dynamics that are required to inform decision-making in relation to rehabilitation and fire dynamics that could have major implications for reducing emissions. Importantly, in Cambodia relatively few of these analysts had direct climate change experience, and they required some training in how to apply their skills to the climate change and REDD fields. Work in the latter areas requires the integration of a range of skills in economics,
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statistics, vegetation ecology and policymaking, and the application of these disciplines to REDD and GHG mitigation will not always be straightforward. International and bilateral efforts to build REDD Readiness should therefore begin with an evaluation of the level of analytical capacity and experience, especially as applied to climate change. In countries like Cambodia this should then be considered in deciding the optimal allocation of funds between REDD-specific capacity building and implementation vs. more basic forms of training and education.
10.2. Policy
Opportunity costs of agricultural development in Cambodia may be relatively low in key areas, but are still likely to be higher than prices obtained in the voluntary market. One of the most significant results of this project was that the average opportunity cost of protecting the carbon stocks at the study site was modest for some crops under scenarios of lower economic value ($5 to $10 per ton CO2e) and moderate for others (up to nearly $16 per ton). These costs are however higher than most carbon prices currently available on the voluntary market ($5 per ton or less). While additional research would be needed to indicate if this is generally true across Cambodia, these results indicate that the gains from projects on the voluntary REDD market are unlikely to compete with agricultural uses, and thus cannot be relied upon as the sole means to protect Cambodia’s forests. Participation in a future compliance market holds more promise for national REDD, as the prices to be obtained on a future compliance market are likely to be higher than the opportunity costs observed in the Koh Kong case study; carbon prices in the EU Emission Trading Scheme are currently close to $20 per ton, for example. The voluntary market has a useful role to play in building capacity and generating valuable lessons, but achieving long-term REDD on a national scale will likely require participation in an international compliance market if forest protection is to compete with agriculture in the market. A sound, well-managed protected area system is a key element of a successful REDD Plus program in Cambodia and other countries with similar systems. Protected areas will be central to many countries’ national REDD Plus strategies. They help to preserve carbon-rich forests, minimize leakage, promote REDD safeguards and achieve co-benefits. As a pioneer in this area Cambodia thus has an important building block for REDD Plus already in place. For example, Cambodia’s protected areas are already estimated to include 820 million tons of carbon. With enhanced management plans, simply maintaining existing protected areas can preserve more than two-fifths of the country’s forest with minimal additional effort. Ensuring these protected areas are well-managed over the long-term should thus be a priority for Cambodian policymakers, and for other developing countries with significant protected area systems. Effective land use planning and allocation processes at the national and regional levels are essential for the success of a REDD Plus program in Cambodia and other countries with similar systems. Investors in REDD require a guarantee of secure land tenure if substantive cash flows are to be realized. Land use allocations should support the development of a stable, sustainable and productive land use pattern that provides benefits to both local and national communities. An effective structure is needed to address and resolve competing land use proposals. Even so, there is a potential quandary in developing a high level process while delivering these goals in a manner that also supports a REDD Plus program. The creation of a national “Land Conservation Council” could strengthen cross-sector approaches to national and regional land use planning and allocate lands to end uses, provided that the decision making process is inclusive. It should be based upon multiple comprehensive sector studies, transparent in information sharing, and include participatory mechanisms that incorporate the
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current bottom-up processes and effectively address conflict resolution. While additional legislation may be required, much of Cambodia’s existing body of law provides supportive guidance to the decision-making process. Enhancement of carbon stocks presents important opportunities for REDD policy in developing countries. While reducing deforestation and degradation is the focus of REDD, developing countries like Cambodia should also pay attention to the “Plus” element of rehabilitating degraded forests and enrichment of marginal forest areas to enhance carbon stocks. The CCAP study found a large potential for enhancement: in the target area of 44,000 ha, total carbon stocks could be increased by 9% (over 1 million tons) in just 10 years. The potential in many other countries is also considerable. In Southeast Asia alone, one study estimated there are over 60 million ha of degraded land in seven countries including Cambodia (Chokkalingam et al 2001). If properly implemented, forest rehabilitation and enhancement of carbon stocks can also help ensure permanence of REDD (a key concern for international institutions and investors considering support of REDD projects) and promote local development. The prospect of achieving substantive emissions reductions through the enhancement of carbon stocks in forest areas requires clear definitions of both goals and terms within the context of REDD Plus. The substantial potential for carbon sequestration through forest rehabilitation documented in this study is likely to be a feature that Cambodia shares with a range of other small tropical forest countries that harbour a disproportionate share of global biodiversity. The potential significance of rehabilitation in reducing net carbon emissions therefore requires more careful attention to forest degradation issues. Calls for new definitions in emerging global climate change agreements under the UNFCCC and other REDD frameworks should therefore include qualitative goals -- as well as the numerical ones required for carbon accounting purposes -- that seek to manage ecological processes in support of both net emissions reductions and the goals of the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD), rather than simply aim to increase the scope of areas eligible for action as those currently employed for the CDM under the Marrakesh Accords do. These include a forest typology that reflects the range of relevant ecological processes and biodiversity values, a focus on natural regeneration requirements, large-scale MRV to ensure comprehensive tracking of all forest activities and uses within forest ecosystems, and an emphasis on enhancement procedures that do not impact biodiversity negatively. Without this, there is a heightened risk that enhancements through forest rehabilitation could mask forest loss and degradation elsewhere. The inclusion of a clear conceptual framework and matching definitions for restoration, rehabilitation, reforestation (and re-vegetation) and afforestation that build on the ecosystems approach adopted by the CBD is more suitable for addressing the full range of enhancement issues within climate change and REDD agreements, and would facilitate better integration with other conservation and resource management objectives and obligations. It will also allow countries some degree of flexibility in developing strategies for managing productive landscapes, provided that measures to ensure that participants do not game the system are in place. Decentralized governance structures provide an opportunity for implementing REDD Plus activities and enhancing permanence, through sustained local community engagement, rapid response to field issues, and transparent benefit sharing arrangements. As this discussion of Cambodian REDD policy shows, integrated national and regional land use planning could potentially add value to existing sector-based approaches (forestry, protected areas, etc.) if their development were to support objectives for the sustainable use of natural resources. The national REDD Plus plan will also need mechanisms to ensure effective coordination with policy at the national level.
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Proposals for the establishment of REDD schemes cannot be separated from global efforts to conserve biodiversity. This conclusion stems not only from the integral role that protected areas provide for national REDD schemes, but also from the distribution of global biodiversity itself. Together with a wide array of other small tropical countries, Cambodia provides a disproportionately large contribution as a repository for sustaining global biodiversity, whether through protected areas or other measures. Many of these countries share other key attributes as well: substantial areas of degraded forest suitable for rehabilitation; ineffective or ailing protected area systems; a prevailing focus on voluntary markets; weaknesses in technical capacity and governance; and a wide array of poverty, health, education and economic issues. While compliance market pricing is critical if REDD is to be successful, it is equally important that the UNFCCC enshrine recognition of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s objectives and program into the language of decisions made by the UNFCCC COP. REDD actions by smaller countries with relatively minor carbon stocks (when considered individually) will have greater value when their potential emissions reduction and other co-benefits of regional and/or global significance are considered collectively. These may include elimination of cross-border leakage, maintaining biodiversity, securing ecosystems services including water resources, and raising the standard of MRV actions; they may even have implications for regional law enforcement or security in the longer term. This highlights a need for global and regional cooperation in developing biodiversity conservation and carbon enhancement strategies. Perhaps most importantly, small countries with high biodiversity may be able to address REDD issues and develop REDD strategies more easily than some larger developing countries that are arguably more complex. These smaller countries may therefore consider collaborative action to strengthen their voice in international forums, including the UNFCCC and CBD negotiation processes. By combining policies related to biodiversity and carbon stocks these countries could enhance their access to development benefits while providing clear services to the global community in achieving shared environmental goals.
10.3. Baselines
The REDD credits eligible for sale under a national historical emission crediting baseline may be significantly lower than the level that would be achieved with a BAU crediting baseline. REDD and other emission reduction projects undertaken to date typically measure reductions for credit against a projected future business-as-usual (BAU) baseline. Within the international climate negotiations under the UNFCCC and other forums, however, it is generally agreed that national-level REDD crediting baselines would require (at a minimum) a reduction below a historical national REDD emissions baseline before reductions would be eligible for crediting. The reductions available for sale in the latter will in many cases be much lower. This can be illustrated using the baseline analysis conducted for the CCAP study (see Chapter 5). Let it be assumed that for the case study area the 2002-2006 historical emissions baseline (1.01 million tons CO2e) is used as the crediting baseline; in addition, assume the 2016-2020 annual average deforestation rate under BAU conditions is 4% per year, giving an annual average BAU emissions of 2.36 million tons CO2e. Using this future BAU baseline, reducing the deforestation rate to 0.8% annually would achieve reductions available for crediting equal to 1.68 million tons
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– five times the amount of credits (0.33 million tons) achieved using the historical baseline (see Table 13).30 The 1.35 million ton difference represents a unilateral contribution of the developing country to reducing global emissions, and is thus not available for sale as international offsets. The experience of many developing countries with baselines so far has concerned only projected BAU baselines for individual projects (these includes both CDM and REDD projects). It is therefore important that developing countries undertaking national REDD understand fully the implications of using historical baselines for the credits they will receive, and that they include in their REDD plans accurate projections of potential credits and the revenues to be earned. The choice of years used to estimate the historical emission-crediting baseline can also have a major impact on the carbon credits achieved. The baseline analysis conducted by the CCAP team estimated the annual average emission rate for the 1997-2006 period (used as the historical crediting baseline) at 4.18 million tons CO2e, nearly four times higher than the average rate for 2002-2006. As a consequence, the credits achieved in the potential reduction scenarios explored in this analysis would be far lower in the 2002-2006 baseline case (less than 10%) of the credits earned with the 1997-2006 baseline under the 0.8% deforestation scenario (see Table 13). It should be noted that this is a local study of one region only; the corresponding national-level historical baselines in Cambodia and other countries may not mirror the patterns observed in any particular province or region, and so the differences may be less pronounced in other cases. Yet the significant annual variability observed in the CCAP Koh Kong case study is similar to the volatility in deforestation rates observed at the national level in many other countries over the past two decades (e.g., Brazil). The years and procedures required for estimating historical REDD emission baselines under a future UNFCCC agreement have yet to be decided. The CCAP study however adds weight to the case for an approach that would allow countries some degree of flexibility in the years selected based on historical deforestation and emission patterns, rather than a “one size fits all” approach in which all countries would be required to use the same years to estimate their historical crediting baseline. Care would have to be taken to ensure that countries do not game the system, and that the accuracy and credibility of carbon accounting is maintained. Such an approach could however help to reassure countries that may be reluctant to undertake REDD due to high volatility in their historical deforestation rates, and to address potential equity concerns.
10.4. Scale
Countries intending to undertake national REDD should plan ahead and build national integration plans into the design and implementation of sub-national REDD programs and projects. National REDD will require national-level baselines and carbon accounting. Integrating action at provincial and local levels into national accounting will be complex, however, and conditions and key elements at the local level (e.g., baselines, carbon contents) will often differ significantly from the national average. For example, the deforestation rate in the CCAP case study area estimated by the team (approximately 4% in the early 2000’s) was
30
The total 1.68 million ton reduction below BAU is equal to the difference between the future BAU emissions of 2.36 million tons and the 1.01 million ton crediting baseline, plus the 0.33 million additional tons reduced below this crediting baseline. It should be emphasized that this example is for illustration only, and that the variance between the BAU and historical baseline credits would be smaller if we had assumed a lower future BAU deforestation rate (e.g., 3%).
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likely much faster than the national average. We also saw through the above illustrative example how existing REDD projects that use projected BAU baselines could produce very different results with respect to crediting than the national level historical baseline (such projects may nonetheless need to be incorporated into the national plan later).
Cambodia and other countries will therefore need a “bottom up” approach to estimating baselines and reductions that will combine sub-national results with and complement the “top down” national accounting. This approach should have three main components: a) initial estimation of local level historical baselines, future deforestation rates and emission baselines, to rank and prioritize which areas will be targeted for actions under a national REDD plan (since national carbon accounting does not require actions or reductions in all forest areas); b) a procedure for integrating local baselines and reductions into the national level baseline and harmonizing local with national standards, and c) matching emission reductions achieved nationally with external funding.31
Creating such a plan in concert with the implementation of local REDD programs and pilot projects from the start can reduce long-term integration costs, facilitate reporting and verification to meet international standards, and increase the appeal of potential REDD projects to international donors and investors.
31
For additional discussion of this topic see Ogonowski et al, Utilizing Payments for Environmental Services for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) in Developing Countries: Challenges and Policy Options (CCAP, 2009).
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ANNEX I: SUMMARY REPORT OF THE FINAL WORKSHOP
Scoping REDD Plus Approaches under a Post-2012
International Climate Change Policy Framework June 28, 2020
WORKSHOP SUMMARY
The Climate Change Department of the Cambodia Ministry of Environment (MoE) and the Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) jointly organized a workshop on Scoping REDD Plus Approaches under a Post-2012 International Climate Change Policy Framework in Phnom Penh, Cambodia on June 28, 2010. The workshop’s objective is to present and discuss the results of a case study for the identification and development of potential mitigation options and specific challenges Cambodia may face in implementing key REDD Plus programs for protected areas and protection forests, and how these can be addressed and improved as part of a national REDD program under a future international climate change agreement. Over 40 participants participated in the workshop representing key concerned Government Ministries, international organizations, research institutes and national and international NGOs. In the opening session, the workshop participants were welcomed by Dr. Tin Ponlok, MoE Deputy Director General and Dr. Matthew Ogonowski, Program Manager, CCAP. Welcoming the workshop participants, Dr. Tin Ponlok thanked CCAP for the financial and technical support for the workshop and other participants for accepting the MoE’s invitation to the workshop. He highlighted the commitment of Cambodia, as a non-Annex I party to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol, to work together with the international community to address climate change. He stressed that Cambodia has unilaterally allocated 26% of its total land area as protected areas or protection forest, which is among the highest figures of the region. He said further that the Cambodia Millennium Development Goals set a target of keeping forest cover at 60% of the total land area by 2015, and a number of REDD pilot projects have been implemented at various stages. He also provided some background info on Cambodia’s position to support the inclusion of emission reductions from deforestation and forest degradation in the post-2012 international climate change framework, which date back to COP 11 in Canada and then in COP 15 in Indonesia. He stressed that countries choosing to protect their forests as an alternative to timber exploitation or land clearance for other development purposes shall be entitled to fair and reasonable incentives. He expressed his hope that the results of the analysis to be presented in this workshop will serve as contributions to promote awareness and capacity building, in particular, among policy makers and technical officers in charge of REDD Plus. Finally, he reaffirmed MoE’s commitment to work with all key stakeholders to improve cooperation and coordination in a way that would provide maximum benefit to the national economy, local communities, and the local and global environment. Dr. Matthew Ogonowski of CCAP then welcomed the participants and introduced CCAP and the Cambodia REDD study to them. He thanked the Government of Norway for the financial support under their International Climate and Forest Initiative to enable CCAP to implement its existing REDD work in Cambodia and to hold this workshop, and also the MoE, the Forestry Administration and others. He provided some background info on CCAP and its activities related to the UNFCCC and developing country actions, including those in Cambodia, which aim
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to provide information on REDD Plus, build capacity for key stakeholders, and produce policy recommendations that can assist and support both domestic and international policymakers in their decisions related to future REDD Plus activities. He said Cambodia has already made significant steps in promoting REDD in the country, in particular in developing an advanced protected areas system and building REDD into the National Forest Programme as a key element. He expressed his hope that the lessons from the analytical work in Cambodia can be introduced to other countries and used as the basis for research and market-based solutions to address deforestation internationally, and to help generate a self-sustaining process for forest protection. He finally encouraged the participants in the workshop to provide their feedback and stressed that this would be used to improve the results to be used by Cambodia in its future participation in REDD. After the opening session, a number of technical and policy related presentations were made, namely:
1. Introduction: CCAP Cambodia REDD Study, Matthew Ogonowski, Program Manager, CCAP;
2. Draft REDD + Readiness Roadmap for Cambodia, Sum Thy, Director of MoE Cambodia's Climate Change Department;
3. Outline of the Case Study, David Ashwell, CCAP Consultant; 4. Carbon Assessment – Methods and Results, Callum McColluch, Consultant; 5. Opportunity Costs of Alternative Land Use, Neou Seiha, Economic Institute of Cambodia
(EIC); 6. Conclusion and Synthesis, Matthew Ogonowski, Program Manager, CCAP; 7. Protected Areas and REDD, David Ashwell, CCAP consultant; 8. Drafting a Policy Blueprint for Protected Areas and REDD, David Ashwell, CCAP
consultant; and 9. International REDD Policy: Update and Implications of Cambodia Study, Matthew
Ogonowski, Program Manager, CCAP. Discussion and clarification were held following these presentations in terms of their potential implications for Cambodian REDD policy. 1. Introduction: CCAP Cambodia REDD Study, Matthew Ogonowski, Program Manager, CCAP Q1: Jeremy Broadhead, FAO Bangkok, asked Matt what would happen if international demand on forest carbon disappears and carbon payments end. Matt clarified that he was not talking specifically about international donors ending payments to developing countries in the short-term – he stressed that such payments are crucial for the success of REDD. Rather, he discussed in general the importance of planning for a long-term transition to a new system where it is in every person’s interest across the planet to live in a climate- and forest-friendly fashion. Matt stressed the point that we cannot assume carbon payments will continue forever; we need to find a way to get countries and people to move 100% to renewable energy and engage in forest-friendly activities like eco-tourism, agro-forestry and others that do not rely on carbon payments. Carbon payments thus need to be a transition period – if we do not do this transition then all we will accomplish is delaying the climate problem for one or two generations, not stopping it. Q2: Tom Clements, UNDP REDD Consultant, reminded the group about the importance of learning why the Integrated Conservation and Development Programs failed in the 1980s. Matt agreed with this and said that we need to learn from past experience.
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2. Draft REDD + Readiness Roadmap for Cambodia, Sum Thy, Director of CCD Comment 1: Tin Ponlok, Deputy Director General of MoE General Department for Nature Conservation and Protection, stressed that the establishment of the Inter-agency (MoE; Forestry Administration; Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction) REDD+ Taskforce is a very positive sign. This effort indicates that key national REDD stakeholders understand the need to have a coordination mechanism to maximize benefits to stakeholders from future REDD, and to reduce the risks of the country falling prey to so-called carbon cowboys. Comment 2: Vann Piseth, Coordinator of the UNDP/GEF-supported Sustainable Land Management Project at the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, briefed the group about his project objective and achievements, and invited the REDD+ Taskforce members to join some of his project’s meetings to ensure harmonization, since many elements of his project are related to climate change and payments for environment services (PES). Q1: Chan Somaly, Director of the MoE Department of International Conventions and Biodiversity, asked about the relation between the REDD+ Taskforce and the Technical Working Group on Forestry and Environment and why the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP) appears not to be taken into account. Sum Thy answered that the presented REDD+ Roadmap is in draft form, and some issues such as reporting lines and links between existing concerned institutions need to be clarified and agreed upon by higher level decision makers. Ponlok added that since the NBSAP is an official document approved by the Government, it needs to be taken into account for the future REDD roadmap. 3. Outline of the Case Study, David Ashwell, CCAP Consultant 4. Carbon Assessment – Methods and Results, Callum McColluch, Consultant 5. Opportunity Costs of Alternative Land Use, Neou Seiha, EIC 6. Conclusion and Synthesis, Matthew Ogonowski, Program Manager, CCAP Q1: Mathieu van Rijn, GERES, asked the following questions: (i) How do deforestation and degradation relate to each other? It seems degradation is not taken into account in the study; (ii) The assumed carbon price under the compliance market used in the study is US $20/ton, but who will buy at those prices, especially when the voluntary market is much lower? (iii) What about management cost of REDD – is this taken into account in the study? David answered that strategically it is important to estimate the original carbon stocks and then model the current status of logged forest. Matt added that although the EU excluded forestry from the original emission trading scheme in Europe, they are now strongly in support of international REDD. Also buying REDD offsets at a large scale is a central piece of all climate legislation under consideration in the USA. So it is likely there will be significant demand from developed countries when the UNFCCC agreement for the post-2012 period is passed. Regarding the voluntary market, prices can be expected to rise under a UNFCCC compliance market, but only if countries choose to do national REDD instead of just individual REDD projects on the voluntary market. Comment 1: Tom Clements commented that a lot of things depend on the assumptions and therefore a sensitivity analysis would be helpful, especially for carbon stocks and the assumed deforestation rate of 5%, which seems to be high. Other key variables should also to be explored. Matt agreed with the comment, but noted that many of the assumptions were in fact conservative e.g., the assumptions that 100% of wood already has been removed, and that
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future deforestation rates are high. Changing these assumptions would cause the cost per ton to fall. He also agreed that such sensitivity analyses will be important to improve the study, and that CCAP will be exploring potential funding sources to enable them to expand the analysis in such areas. Comment 2: Lic Vuthy, Danida Program Officer said that using timber alone in the analysis is too general and that ecosystem services, biodiversity wood quality, etc., need to be considered. Comment 3: Chhay Chetha, Deputy Director of IRD, Forestry Administration, said that the study failed to take soil types into account, e.g., deciduous or evergreen forests grow on different types of soils of different fertilities. In addition, opportunity costs of forest should also cover other co-benefits such as ecosystem services, biodiversity, etc. Comment 4: Chan Somaly, Director of the MoE Department of International Conventions and Biodiversity said that in the analysis crop yields are assumed to remain the same over time, which may not be the case in practice. Furthermore, other factors such as impacts of agricultural practices on soil quality, ecosystems and biodiversity need to be taken into account. Finally, she said that the time factor is also important -- for example, farmers will be likely more interested in short-term income that waiting for income from long-term carbon credits. Matt confirmed that the yields are assumed to improve over time, but the same assumption and schedule for each crop yield are used for each of the three price scenarios. Ponlok added that this is a preliminary study and the results are not yet ready for presentation to decision makers. He stressed that with no peer review of the study conducted yet, there is a need for transparency and stakeholder consultation of the study findings to ensure as much as possible their credibility and usefulness for future decision making. He agreed that sensitivity analysis and choice of crops are important. David stressed that the carbon stock used is of average value and that FAO grouped their data according to how they can do a cost effective plan. Matt added that he also agreed with the comments that NTFPs, biodiversity, ecosystem services and other co-benefits are very important, and it would be good to incorporate them into the sensitivity analysis. 7. Protected Areas and REDD, David Ashwell, CCAP consultant Q1: Ney Chanthy, Chief of Office, General Directorate of Administration for Nature Conservation and Protection (GDANCP), asked how selection of sites for REDD projects will affect PA management plans, especially now when most PAs do not have management plans and clear zoning. He also asked whether rubber plantations can be eligible for REDD. David agreed that many PAs do not have management plans; most activities are project-driven and this needs further discussion. Sum Thy added that there is no clear answer regarding whether rubber can be defined as forest; this will depend on Government definitions of forest. Under CDM, the Government has defined that bamboo is considered as forest while palm is not. Q2: Chan Somaly asked about sources of carbon stock data in PAs and whether this study can provide recommendations and guidance on where to do REDD projects. David said that the sources included UNEP, WCMC, other websites, etc. He said the team has not made any recommendations for site selections for REDD projects since national REDD requires a national information system, historical baseline and setting of priorities on national level (with co-benefits). However, there are some regional indications of REDD potential such as Cardamoms, the southwest coast, etc.
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Comment 1: Tom Clements informed the group that a survey was conducted as part of the Cambodian REDD+ Roadmap to estimate the carbon stock in different land areas, which gives a total of 3 Gt carbon in Cambodia, of which 30% is locked in PAs and 15% in protected forests. Thus, the estimate of 900 million tons in PAs in the Roadmap study is very close to the 820 million tons in this CCAP study. Comment 2: Mathieu van Rijn said there is a need to consider drivers of deforestation from outside PAs. 8. Drafting a Policy Blueprint for Protected Areas and REDD, David Ashwell, CCAP consultant Comment 1: Ney Chanthy said that the PA Law has no provision for excision of parts of PAs, and heavily degraded parts of PAs may be defined as community use zone. David replied that it is about minimizing leakage and clear zoning can help. Regulatory framework for de-gazettement is needed, and there is a need to focus on core and conservation zones while using other zones to respond to demand for land. Comment 2: Mathieu van Rijn, Geres, said degraded land could potentially be rehabilitated and land use planning is crucial. Comment 3: Ponlok highlighted that there exist many barriers and challenges at the micro, macro and global levels. The global community needs to agree on REDD at the UNFCCC; the current uncertainty in international REDD policy makes it difficult for countries to plan. For example, recently Indonesia signed a US $2 billion deal with Norway, but will this be sufficient to stop deforestation? Matt added that there is some global uncertainty post-Copenhagen and said national REDD will require international support. He sees the short-term need for responses through the REDD+ Partnership and other Fast Start mechanisms, while long-term responses will require a clear global agreement. 9. International REDD Policy: Update and Implications of Cambodia Study, Matthew Ogonowski, Program Manager, CCAP Q1: Sum Thy said that the Copenhagen Accord commits US $4.5 billion to REDD but in recent UN climate change talks many countries questioned using the Accord as the basis for the UNFCCC negotiations. He asked what the implication of this will be. Matt replied that the UNFCCC should be the basis for agreement. The Copenhagen Accord and other near-term processes should be merged back into the UNFCCC (as called for in the REDD+ Partnership discussions, for example), but it is uncertain at this point how things will move forward. He stressed that the REDD Readiness work under the Fast Start will help the process and can achieve gains in REDD no matter what happens over the long-term. Q2: Lic Vuthy noted that this analysis seems different from what he has heard at UNDP REDD+ Roadmap Taskforce discussions. Sum Thy said that efforts have been made to ensure that potential REDD activities in PAs are aligned with the future Roadmap and that key messages from this analysis will be considered in Roadmap discussions. Matt added that this study started before the UN-REDD-supported Taskforce existed. He confirmed that this is the first-ever analysis of this nature in Cambodia, that the scope of this analysis was chosen in consultation with MoE and key government agencies, and was designed to avoid duplication of existing work. He also promised to share the results of the study once they are refined. Ponlok said the analysis will fit well in the to-do-list under the to-be-prepared REDD+ Roadmap. He said coordination of REDD stakeholders is crucial and is a key aim of this workshop. He added that
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there is no national framework yet and this work is tailored towards that. David said that the intention was not to do an institutional analysis. This study intends to give some ideas about what functions might be needed to implement the REDD policy blueprint, if the Government chooses to go forward on those lines. It is not intended as a prescription of what the government should do. Tom backed Ponlok’s comment by stressing his support to development of a REDD framework, and that it will up to other agencies to decide how they fit. At the end of the workshop Dr. Ogonowski made a summary of comments and next step activities. He expressed his agreement with some participants on the need to conduct a sensitivity analysis using various assumptions of key parameters, which in turn will help improve the reliability of the analysis. The analysis should also be expanded to cover other co-benefits such as biodiversity and non-timber forest products. While there is some uncertainty with respect to the future REDD compliance market, it is important to focus on long-term REDD now and to ensure that short-term projects on the voluntary carbon market will fit into a future national REDD framework. He highlighted the need to clarify sources of information and the importance of information sharing. As for next steps, he said that CCAP will look for additional funding to: a) refine the analysis using feedback from this workshop and consultations, b) look into how the lessons and methodology can be applied to other areas of Cambodia, c) apply and replicate the model used in this study to produce bottom-up costs and policy blueprints for other carbon-rich areas in Cambodia, and d) elaborate and share globally the lessons of the study with other developing countries and with international climate negotiators. In closing, Mr. Ponlok reiterated Cambodia’s achievements in and commitment to forest protection. He further stressed the numerous challenges the country is facing in its conservation work, mainly due to the pressures from development activities, in particular agriculture, population growth, poverty, etc. He stressed the importance of this study as a new step toward realizing REDD in Cambodia, and for capacity building to help Cambodia plan future REDD Plus activities effectively. He pointed out that this analysis is complimentary to other REDD related activities in the country and fits well with the Cambodia’s REDD+ Roadmap currently under development. Furthermore, it is also a new contribution to establish a research culture that supports the REDD decision-making process in the country. However, he reminded that the research results presented are very preliminary and are subject to further refinement. He reiterated MoE’s commitments to cooperate and coordinate with all REDD stakeholders in the spirit of partnership and equity. He closed by thanking CCAP’s project team and all the participants for their support and active contribution in the discussions.
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FINAL WORKSHOP AGENDA
Scoping REDD Plus Approaches Under a Post-2012 International Climate Change Policy Framework
June 28, 2010, Hotel Sunway, Phnom Penh 8:00 am: Registration 8:30 am: Opening – National Anthem
Outline of program Opening remarks by Tin Ponlok, Deputy Director General, General Department for the Administration of Natural Conservation and Protection, Ministry of Environment
9:00 am: Introductory Address by Matthew Ogonowski, Program Manager, CCAP 9:30 am: Draft REDD + Readiness Roadmap for Cambodia, Sum Thy, Director of
Cambodia's Climate Change Department, MoE 10:00 am: Discussion and Clarification 10:15 am: Coffee break 10:35am: Outline of the Case Study, David Ashwell, CCAP Consultant 10:40 am: Carbon Assessment – Methods and Results, Callum McColluch, Consultant 11:00 am: Opportunity Costs of Alternative Land Use, EIC 11:20 am: Conclusion and Synthesis, Matthew Ogonowski, Program Manager, CCAP 11:30 am: Discussion and Clarification 12:15 pm: Lunch 1:30 pm: Protected Areas and REDD, David Ashwell, CCAP consultant 2:00 pm: Discussion: Potential Implications for Cambodian REDD policy 1:30 pm: Drafting a Policy Blueprint for Protected Areas and REDD, David Ashwell, CCAP
consultant 2:00 pm: Discussion: Potential Implications for Cambodian REDD policy 3:00 pm: Coffee break 3:30 pm: International REDD Policy: Update and Implications of Cambodia Study, Matthew
Ogonowski, Program Manager, CCAP 4:00 pm: Discussion: Potential Implications for Cambodian REDD policy 4:50 pm: Summary and Next Steps, Matthew Ogonowski, Program Manager, CCAP 5:00 pm: Closure and thanks
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ANNEX II: FOREST DEGRADATION IN CAMBODIA.
Current statements of the extent of forest degradation are based on GIS based models that estimate the vulnerability of forests in terms of their proximity to infrastructure. The use of different proximity criteria produces similar models. Figure A.II-1 shows the forest areas that were either degraded, or subject to degradation, in 2002.32 The various shades of green represent forest areas while the yellow represents long degraded shrub lands or extensive secondary formations predating the 1990s. Red indicates deforestation during the 1990s, grey indicates agricultural areas. Dark green areas indicate remote forests with little or no mechanical access where forests were known to be in relatively good condition. The paler green areas indicate forest areas within five kilometers of roads and villages where access is good and forest is easily degraded. Here, extensive road networks were associated with logging activities. During the 1990s much of the deforestation in Cambodia was focused at the interface of extensive agricultural and forest areas, particularly where soils were fertile. This was in part due to the return of people to areas that they had previously lived in but abandoned due to poor security during the 1980s. In more recent years, forest loss has increased within the extensive forest tracts. This was associated with activities within logging concessions and with agricultural expansion. Lowland forests in many protected areas were also degraded. The major portion of the Roniem Daunsam protected area was de-gazetted to provide access to fertile agricultural lands and limestone resources for cement production. Figure A.II-1: Forest areas subject to degradation (2002)
Subsequent modeling by BPAMP (2007) produced similar patterns of vulnerability when the criteria were reduced to three kilometers from a village and 1.5 kilometers from a road (Figure A.II- 2).
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Modeled by the Independent Multi-Stakeholder Forest Sector Review (2004).
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Figure A.II-2: BPAMP model of forest impact categories
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ANNEX III: COMPONENTS OF BIOMASS FOR EACH FOREST TYPE
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ANNEX IV: FOREST COVER CLASSIFICATION
Adapted from Cambodia Forest Cover: Forest cover map change 2002-2006 (2008). Forestry Administration, Royal Government of Cambodia
Evergreen forest: Evergreen forests are usually multi-storied forests where trees maintain
their leaves during the whole year. They comprise the lowland tropical rain forests, the hill
evergreen forests and the dry evergreen forest and along streams and rivers (gallery
forests).
Semi-evergreen forest: Semi-evergreen forests contain variable percentages of
evergreen and deciduous trees, the percentage of evergreen trees varying from 30% to
70%. Semi-evergreen forests continue to appear evergreen throughout the year, even
when the percentage of deciduous trees is high.
Secondary Forests: This land cover type includes regrowth, stunted forests, inundated
forests and bamboo. Regrowth of secondary forests is representative of a continuous,
usually dense, layer of smaller trees. Stunted forests grow very slowly because of poor site
conditions on hydromorphic soils and rock outcrops. Heavily disturbed forest like mosaics
of forest, regrowth, and cropping, corresponding to shifting agriculture in which the
percentage of forest is more than 40%, and areas of old regrowth and young secondary
forest in the process of regenerating after clear cutting, are also included in this category.
Large areas of dense bamboo are usually discernible due to their pink and orange color
and their typical texture. A sparse bamboo coverage or small bamboo will not be
discernible and will remain in one of the other classes.
Other forests: Contains mangrove forests and forest plantations.
Deciduous forest: Deciduous forests comprise dry mixed deciduous forests and Dry
Dipterocarp forests. Deciduous forests drop their leaves more or less completely during the
dry season. Human impact such as fire is usually much higher compared to other forest
types. Dry Dipterocarp forests naturally have an open character. As undisturbed deciduous
forests may have crown cover of only 40%, soil and grass may have a significant impact
on reflections from these forests. As a result, it is difficult to separate deciduous forests
from shrub land during the dry season.
Non forests: This category merges agricultural areas, urban areas, water bodies, grass
land, barren land, rock, wood shrub land evergreen and wood shrub land dry. Wood and
shrub land is a mixture of shrubs, grass and trees, the trees cover however remaining
below 20 percent. This forest type can be found mainly on shallow soils, on the top of
mountains under climax conditions or as a result of non sustainable land use. Theoretically
there is a chance of becoming forest again.
Since 1985, CCAP has been a recognized world leader in climate and air quality policy and is the only independent, non-profit think-tank working exclusively on those issues at the local,
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