Designing the FutureSan Jose State Engineering

Ron Swenson September 11, 2007

www.ecotopia.com/workshops

Each Generation’s Challenges

• My grandparents and parents faced the Great Depression and World War II.

• My generation struggled with Civil Rights, Vietnam, the Cold War and Prosperity at the Third World’s Expense.

• Your generation will meet the 21st century’s twin challenges of Global Warming (known but out in the future) and Peak Oil (little known but imminent).

Global Warming

Fires in Congo & Angola

Peak Oil

Two Ways to Respond…

• Germany, Japan [lost WWII]– Solar Energy– Hybrid Vehicles

• USA [losing the war against Nature]– Attack Iraq– Alaska National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR oil)– 25 x ‘25 … the rape of Soil and Ancient Water

cloaked with environmental rhetoric

Which way will prevail?

• “The American way of life is not negotiable.” [G H W Bush, 1992]

• Check with the people of New Orleans for more more details ….

• Can we change course in time to avoid catastrophe?

Swenson´s Law

To avoid deprivation resulting from the exhaustion of non-renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion.

www.OilCrisis.com/Swenson

Bucky Fuller

“More with Less”

1966 at SJS

www.bfi.org

Hermann Scheer

“Solar technologies are … potentially the most economic

solution.”

2004

www.EnergyCrisis.com/Scheer

Richard Smalley

“Think TeraWatts”

2004

Smalley.Rice.edu → Our Energy Challenge

We’ve gotta lotta work to do…• Are you up for it?

• You will learn to observe natural phenomena and model systems’ performance before systems are built.

• But will you learn about the global challenges and how to deal with them in class? Your environment is much too comfortable to abandon old habits. So how will you get ready for the coming changes?

So you’re gonna be an engineer?

• What’s the point?

• What to do in school?

• What will you have that others won’t?

• Can you predict the future?

What to do?

• Get busy and build yourself a good crap detector. There’s plenty of it out there. You will need to see it for what it is.

• Learn to track down the facts, analyze the problem and defend your conclusions.

• Team up with others. Venture capital is team sport. So is engineering.

PathologicaPathologica

l l

Disconnect Disconnect

Clean Coal?

What do the “experts” say?

“Active solar power ... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel…

“Alternative energy sources ... are … implausible … without the subsidy of oil. The only remaining alternative is nuclear energy.”

James Howard Kunstler

www.HubbertPeak.com/nuclear

Total Area Required for a Photovoltaic Power Plant to Produce the Total U.S. Annual Electrical Demand

Nevada

P109-G1055201

Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand

www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2

Global Solar Energy Balance

Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)

178,000

Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000

Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000

Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000

Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100

Total Energy Used by Human Society 13

Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5

Total Human Food Energy 0.6

www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

Getting down to cases

• Each of us must find our place in the scheme of things. It’s not what’s important. It’s what’s important to you.

• For me, the challenge is kicking the oil habit.

• The solution comes up every morning.

• So that’s what I’m going to talk about.

How to Predict the Future?

• The best way to predict the future is to design it. [Alan Kayes]

• Point of view is worth 80 IQ points. It’s how you look at the problem.

• You got to stick to one thing and then drive it hard. [Carl N. Swenson]

Thermodynamics vs. Economics

Policy can´t defeat Mother Nature.

… in the long run …

Thermo-dynamics wins!

Consumer Audits • Refrigerators • Televisions

• Water Pumps • Lighting • Radios • Kitchen Appliances • Hot Water Heaters

Public Outreach: Television, Radio, Community Public Outreach: Television, Radio, Community Presentations, Reports Presentations, Reports

Presentation to International and National Stakeholders Presentation to International and National Stakeholders

ElectroRoof

Sustainable Transportation

• Not cars

• Not airplanes

• Walking, Horses, Bikes, Sailboats … and Podcars

Kiteship

• From Guinness: "A 420 sq meter (4,521 sq ft) traction kite manufactured by KiteShip (USA) was used to propel an 8.5 tonne (18,740 lb) yacht near Sydney in 6 December, 2004, the largest kite ever used to pull a vehicle of any kind."

Beating oil addiction with fraud

• New Generation Vehicle (Clinton)

• Hydrogen Highway (Schwarzenegger)

• Cellulosic Ethanol (G W Bush)

white

How we use energy

So what about Hydrogen?

Am I missing something?!

Energy Return on Energy Invested < ½

So what about Corn Cars & Bean Buses?

So what are we going to do?

Basky

The All-New DonCar!

www.OilCrisis.com/Transport

Compare PV to Biofuels

Global Solar Energy Balance

Sunlight is sufficient

Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)

178,000

Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000

Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000

Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000

Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100

Total Energy Used by Human Society 13

Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5

Total Human Food Energy 0.6

www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

Tonatiuh

www.Ecotopia.com/Tonatiuh

Freeway at Capacity

Vehicles Removed

PRT Passengers

PRT System

Solar on Rail

www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

SolarEvolution

120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth

www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2

Thermodynamics of PV

• EROI: 5 years

• Life: 50 years

• Those who make it happen!• Those who watch it happen.• Those who wonder what

happened?

Three Kinds of People

Are engineers human?

…

all you need is love!

www.Solarevolution.com