Detergent Alkylates - World Markets to 2025colinhouston.com/Research/multiclient/Detergent... ·...

Colin A. Houston & AssociatesChemical market intelligence experts since 1971

Detergent Alkylates - World Markets to 2025

Prospectus

2 Detergent Alkylates - World Markets to 2025

CAHA ResearchChemical Market Intelligence

Major Industrial End UsesAgriculture

Asphalt

Cement

Corrosion Inhibitors

Dispersants

Food

Leather

Metalworking

Oil Field & Refinery

Ore Flotation

Paint

Paper

Petroleum Additives

Plastics & Elastomers

Polishers

Slurries

Textiles

Wallboard

Raw Materials & Intermediate Chemicals

Oleochemicals

Normal Paraffins

Alpha-Olefins

Detergent Alkylates

Higher Alcohols

Alkylphenols

Ethylene Oxide

Colin A. Houston & Associates, Inc.

262 Eastgate Drive 323Aiken, South Carolina 29803 USATelephone 1 803-226-0350Email [email protected] www.colin-houston.com

3Detergent Alkylates - World Markets to 2025

Overview

The market for LAB is 3.2 million tons/year and is forecast to grow 2.5 percent annually to 2025. Over the last ten years, LAB had been pressured by the high cost of petroleum and competing surfactants gained ground in its markets. Valued at $6.3 billion in 2013, the largest component in the market is demand in Asia which accounts for 50 percent of usage. Asia is growing at 3.2 percent annually. These are among the findings of Detergent Alkylates - World Markets to 2025. The comprehensive study was published in July 2015 and is the sixth in a series of multiclient studies on LAB by Colin A. Houston & Associates since the mid-1980s.

The report compares the economics of five different plant configurations in two countries: the U.S. and India. Integrated and non-integrated economics are compared as well as the HF and Detal-Plus® catalyst systems.

For over 50 years, LAB has been the most widely used surfactant intermediate. The LAB market has continued to grow over the last decade, led by Asia. Competing surfactants have lost economic advantage as LAB prices have corrected with oil prices since the end of 2014. Asian consumption is forecast to grow 3.2 percent annually through 2025. A capacity buildup in China has driven a surplus that is being exported to a wide number of areas.

The report details trade movements from producer countries to customer markets in more than 50 different countries. Ex-regional trade has grown from 18 percent of production in 2006 to 22 percent in 2013, notably from the Middle East and West Europe. China’s ex-regional trade has also grown over the period.

Contents

Description of the Study 5

Table of Contents 6

List of Tables 11

List of Figures 15

Sample Tables 16

Qualifications and Personnel 20

How to Subscribe 22

Detergent Alkylates -World Markets to 2025


Growth of LAB use is supported by increased living standards and a corresponding rise in per capita detergent consumption in the developing areas. In addition, the ongoing conversions from branched alkylates and soap use support demand. Spare LAB represents an opportunity for the second and third tier detergent producers to expand their business and erode the use of soap-based products. New product types that favor LAB-based formulations have given a temporary boost in the North American market.

Other developments in the evolution of detergent ingredients represent challenges for LAB usage. For one, increased reliance on enzymes in cleaning systems is reducing demand for surfactants. The recent wave of new detergent alcohol capacity has resulted, at times, in a surplus of more than a million tons. Fortunately these new supplies have limited ability to replace LAB’s key applications. Competition between the primary surfactants is described in a chapter on End Markets.

The recent high priced plateau of crude oil left the economics of LAB production vulnerable to ethylene- and vegetable oil-based products. However, the volatility of vegetable-based oils has limited the effect on the LAB industry during the past five years. With oleo-based surfactants no longer undercutting the petroleum-derived economics, the outlook for LAB use has improved.

Technical developments have provided some new opportunities for LAB. The development of novel feedstocks could reposition LAB as a surfactant intermediate derived from renewable sources. The opportunity of modified LAB should not be overlooked, especially as the technology comes off patent and the practice of low temperature washing becomes more widespread.

Detergent Alkylates - World Markets to 2025 includes a detailed global analysis of LAB and its sulfonated derivatives by region. The study reports on consumption and trends, as well as competing materials. It evaluates historical, current and future supplies (based on current announcements) in each region and documents trade by country for 2013.

The study provides a full view of all facets of the detergent alkylate industry: raw material supplies and requirements, producers, regional markets, surfactant consumption, environmental issues, and sulfonation capacities. It provides the outlook for LAB and derivatives on a regional and global basis in the context of formulation issues, consumer preference, competition with other surfactants, demographics, and environmental and customer-related issues.

The subscription price for this study is $24,500. The following pages contain the Table of Contents and other details. Please contact us for further details, or if you have any questions.


Detergent Alkylates - World Markets to 2025 is a

comprehensive study which details the production,

capacity, trade and supply/demand balance by region for

LAB. Major factors affecting the outlook are examined

including raw material requirements, surfactant

consumption trends, novel technological developments,

production costs, prices, sulfonation capacity, and

environmental issues, among others. Historical and

forecast consumption of LABS is reviewed in depth

for the 2005-2025 period by application and end use,

incorporating an understanding of the formulation trends,

competition with alcohol-based surfactants, consumer

preferences and customer-oriented requirements.

A brief discussion of each of the main chapters is

provided below.

DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY


Normal Paraffins I-1

Technology I-3Feedstocks for Separation Processes I-4

Producers and Capacities I-5North America I-5Latin America I-6Central & West Europe I-7Asia I-8East Europe I-11Middle East & Africa I-11

Production I-13Prices I-16Detergent End Use Utilization I-18World n-Paraffin Demand Forecast for Alkylate I-18

North America I-18Latin America I-19Central & West Europe I-19Asia I-19East Europe I-19Middle East & Africa I-19

Internal Olefins I-21

Technology I-21Paraffin Dehydrogenation I-21Isomerization and Disproportionation I-23

Producers and Capacities I-23Shell I-23Sasol I-24Fushun I-24Elevance I-24

Production I-25Supply/Demand Issues I-25Detergent End Use Utilization I-26World IO Demand Forecast for Alkylate I-26

Alpha-Olefins I-28

Technology I-28Producers and Capacities I-29Production I-33Supply/Demand Issues I-33Detergent End Use Utilization I-34Alpha-Olefin Demand Forecast for Alkylate I-35

CHAPTER ONE TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. Raw Materials

More than 90 percent of all LAB produced today is based

on n-paraffin feedstock. Declining TnP levels in kerosene

have effectively reduced the output at several n-paraffin

units and some other locations face kerosene shortages.

Merchant internal and alpha-olefin use remains an

important alternative for producing LAB, and provides the

opportunity for some producers to increase incremental

production.

The use of normal paraffins, internal and alpha-olefins

is tracked and forecast through the 2005-2025 period,

along with capacities and new plant announcements.

Supply/demand issues are addressed for each of these

raw materials. A brief overview of raw material trends

and issues, supported by data, is included. New process

routes are discussed.


II. Technology and Economics for LAB

This section reviews alkylbenzene technologies including

processes, catalysts and resulting LAB compositions. A

discussion of the ongoing technological developments

explores the status of new processes, and the potential

for heavier and more branched grades of LABS is

included. Recent developments covered include UOP’s

new transalkylation process, as well as recently patented

processes to manufacture LAB based on vegetable oils.

With the twin challenges of LAB producer competition

and competing surfactants, CAHA has included a new

section to evaluate LAB production economics. The

in-depth analysis of the process economics examines five

configurations for both integrated and non-integrated

complexes in two countries. The different technology

platforms and their implications (HF or Detal®) are

reviewed.

Sources and Technologies II-1

Starting Materials and Processes II-2 Olefins II-2 Alkyl Chlorides II-4

Plant Operation II-4LAB Compositions II-6Developments in Technology II-09

UOP/CEPSA Transalkylation II-12 New CEPSA/UOP Super-High 2-Phenyl Process II-16 Recent UOP LAB Technology Developments II-20

Process Technology Economic Assessments II-21

Introduction II-21 USGC LAB Plant Location Cases II-22 Indian LAB Plant Location Cases II-26 Comparison of USGC and Indian LAB Plant Cases II-29

CHAPTER TWO TABLE OF CONTENTS


III. LAB Markets and Pricing

Regional market analyses include overviews of current,

historical and future capacities with detailed discussions

of each producer. The regional 2005-2013 supply/

demand balances present and discuss demand growth,

production, and operating rates. A forecast 2014-2025

supply/demand balance includes expectations for

demand growth in the context of current and future

supply. Regional LAB surplus and deficits are quantified

based on meeting future regional demand patterns.

A series of country-level trade balances offer valuable

insight regarding inter-regional movements of LAB.

Estimated production by producer, and consumption,

market trends and demand-oriented issues are addressed

by country.

Included for the first time, a regional discussion of pricing

of kerosene, benzene, n-paraffins and LAB is included. In

addition, the analysis contains histories as well as price

forecasts through 2025 for these materials.

Markets III-1

World Overview III-1 Capacity III-1 Production III-2 Trade Balance III-3 Consumption III-3North America III-7 Producers and Capacities III-7 Supply/Demand Balance III-10 Imports/Exports III-12 Consumption III-14 Market Trends and Issues III-14 Demand Forecast III-15Latin America III-16 Producers and Capacities III-16 Supply/Demand Balance III-18 Imports/Exports III-20 Consumption III-22 Market Trends and Issues III-22 Demand Forecast III-23Central & West Europe III-25 Producers and Capacities III-25 Supply/Demand Balance III-28 Imports/Exports III-29 Consumption III-31 Market Trends and Issues III-31 Demand Forecast III-31Asia/Pacific III-32 Producers and Capacities III-32 Supply/Demand Balance III-40 Imports/Exports III-41 Consumption III-46 Market Trends and Issues III-47 Demand Forecast III-47East Europe III-48 Producers and Capacities III-48 Supply/Demand Balance III-49 Imports/Exports III-50 Consumption III-52 Market Trends and Issues III-52 Demand Forecast III-53Middle East & Africa III-54 Producers and Capacities III-54 Supply/Demand Balance III-59 Imports/Exports III-60 Consumption III-64 Market Trends and Issues III-64 Demand Forecast III-65Branched Alkylbenzene Overview III-65 Producers and Capacities III-65 Consumption III-66 Demand Outlook III-67

Historical & Forecast Pricing III-68

North America III-69West Europe III-73Southeast Asia III-76

CHAPTER THREE TABLE OF CONTENTS


IV. Surfactant End Use Market Trends and Issues

An analysis of global and regional surfactant markets

details total surfactant consumption by end use market

and discusses LABS, along with competing surfactants:

alcohol ethoxylates, alcohol ethoxysulfates, alcohol

sulfates, methyl ester sulfonates and alkylphenol

ethoxylates. The outlook for any impact from sustainability

and green claims by consumer product producers

is reviewed. Other formulation issues, consumer

preferences, and competition with other products such as

alcohol-based surfactants is presented by major end use

area: household, industrial and institutional cleaners,

and industrial applications.

World Overview IV-1

North America Markets IV-8

Summary IV-8Household Products IV-11

Surfactant Consumption IV-12Industrial & Institutional Cleaners IV-14Industrial Applications IV-16

Latin American Markets IV-18

Summary IV-18Household Products IV-21Industrial & Institutional Cleaners IV-22Industrial Applications IV-23

Central & West Europe Markets IV-24


Surfactant Consumption IV-28Industrial & Institutional Cleaners IV-29Industrial Applications IV-30

Asia/Pacific Markets IV-32

Summary IV-32Household Products IV-35Industrial & Institutional Cleaners IV-37Industrial Applications IV-38

East Europe Markets IV-40


Surfactant Consumption IV-42Industrial & Institutional Cleaners IV-43

Middle East & Africa Markets IV-44


Surfactant Consumption IV-47Industrial & Institutional Cleaners and

Industrial Applications IV-48

CHAPTER FOUR TABLE OF CONTENTS


V. Environmental Issues

Environmental and health issues related to linear

alkylbenzene sulfonates as well as other surfactants

are reviewed. Issues such as biodegradability, toxicity

and environmental pollution are discussed and their

potential impact on future regional consumption

evaluated. Legislative efforts, testing methods and

results are explained along with other prominent issues.

A review of implications from recently published life cycle

assessments is presented.

VI. Linear and Branched AlkylbenzeneSulfonates

This chapter covers sulfonation technology, a detailed

listing of producers, and an evaluation of the LABS

markets. LABS consumption is analyzed over the 2005-

2025 period for each major region. Consumption of

LABS is segmented by end-use market (household, I&I,

industrial), over the 2005-2025 period. Each regional

analysis encompasses a discussion of end-use markets

and customers in which demographics, formulations,

environmental issues and customer-related issues are

evaluated.

CHAPTER FIVE TABLE OF CONTENTS

Biodegradability V-5

Methods for Determination of Biodegradability V-17Specific Analytical Methods V-17Biodegradation Test Procedures V-18Testing Protocols for the Biodegradability

of Surfactants V-28Historical Environmental Studies V-28

Risk Assessment V-44

Toxicity V-56

Toxicity Testing V-61Legislation Related to Toxicity V-65

Environmental Safety V-68

Environmental Pollution V-75

Environmentally Friendly Purchasing V-84

Life Cycle Inventory V-85

Regional Reviews and Outlook V-88

Technology VI-1

Sulfonation VI-1Utilization VI-27

Markets VI-28

World Overview VI-28North America VI-34

Producers, Capacities, Locations VI-34Major End Use Markets/Customers VI-36

Latin America VI-37Producers, Capacities, Locations VI-37Consumption VI-40End Use Markets/Customers VI-41

Central & West Europe VI-42Producers, Capacities, Locations VI-42End Use Markets/Customers VI-45

Asia/Pacific VI-46Producers, Capacities, Locations VI-46Consumption VI-55End Use Markets/Customers VI-55

East Europe VI-56Producers, Capacities, Locations VI-56End Use Markets/Customers VI-58

Middle East & Africa VI-59Producers, Capacities, Locations VI-59Consumption VI-64End Use Markets/Customers VI-64

CHAPTER SIX


LIST OF TABLESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 TABLES

No. Table Description Page

1 World - LAB Demand by Region, 2013-2025 iii

2 World - LAB Balance, 2013 v

3 World - LAB Demand, Capacity and Difference by Region, 2013-2025 vi

4 Summary Results Compared for USGC Plant Configurations ix

5 Summary Results Compared for Indian Plant Configurations ix

6 World - Major Primary Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 x

7 World - Linear Alkylbenzene Sulfonate Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 xi

8 World - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use and by Region, 2005-2025 xii

CHAPTER ONE: RAW MATERIALS 16 TABLES


I-1 n-Paraffin Capacity by Region, 2005 and 2015 I-5

I-2 North America - n-Paraffin Producers, Locations & Capacities 2013 I-6

I-3 Latin America - n-Paraffin Producers, Locations & Capacities 2013 I-6

I-4 Central & West Europe - n-Paraffin Producers, Locations & Capacities, 2013 I-7

I-5 Asia - n-Paraffin Producers, Locations & Capacities, 2013 I-10

I-6 East Europe - n-Paraffin Producers, Locations & Capacities, 2013 I-11

I-7 Middle East & Africa - n-Paraffin Producers, Locations & Capacities, 2013 I-13

I-8 n-Paraffin Project Outook I-16

I-9 Asia - Historical Average Annual C10-13 n-Paraffin Prices I-16

I-10 Asia - Recent Quarterly C10-13 n-Paraffin Prices 2012-2015, CFR I-17

I-11 World - Normal Paraffin Demand for Linear Alkylbenzene, 2005-2025 I-20

I-12 World - Internal Olefin Producers, 2013 I-24

I-13 World - Internal Olefin Demand for Linear Alkylbenzene, 2005-2025 I-27

I-14 World - Alpha-Olefin Producers, 2013 I-32

I-15 C12 Alpha-Olefin Capacity by Region, 2008-2013 I-34

I-16 World - Alpha-Olefin Demand for Linear Alkylbenzene, 2005-2025 I-36

CHAPTER TWO: TECHNOLOGY & ECONOMICS FOR LAB 10 TABLES


II-1 Typical High and Low 2-Phenyl LAB Compositions II-7

II-2 Typical Linear Alkylbenzene Compositions II-10

II-3 Summary - Configuration Plan of Five Economic Plant Cost Evaluations II-22

II-4 Summary Results Compared for USGC Plant Configurations II-23

II-5 Estimated Production Costs - USGC LAB Plant- UOP HF Alkylation II-24

II-6 Estimated Production Costs - Integrated USGC LAB Plant - UOP HF Alkylation II-25

II-7 Estimated Production Costs - Integrated USGC LAB Plant - UOP Detal® with Transalkylation II-26

II-8 Summary Results Compared for Indian Plant Configurations II-27

II-9 Estimated Production Costs - Integrated Indian LAB Plant - UOP HF Alkylation II-28

II-10 Estimated Production Costs - Integrated Indian LAB Plant - UOP Detal® with Transalkylation II-29


CHAPTER THREE: LAB MARKETS AND PRICING 42 TABLES


III-1 World - LAB Capacity by Region, 2013 III-1

III-2 World - LAB Production by Region, 2005-2013 III-2

III-3 World - LAB Balance, 2013 III-3

III-4 World - LAB Demand by Region, 2005-2013 III-4

III-5 World - LAB Demand, Capacity and Difference by Region, 2005-2025 III-6

III-6 North America - LAB Producers, 2013 III-7

III-7 North America - Historical and Forecast LAB Capacities, 2005-2025 III-8

III-8 North America - LAB Supply/Demand Balance, 2010-2013 III-11

III-9 North America - LAB Supply/Demand Forecast, 2013-2025 III-12

III-10 North America - LAB Trade Balance, 2013 III-13

III-11 Latin America - LAB Producers, 2013 III-16

III-12 Latin America - Historical and Forecast LAB Capacities, 2005-2025 III-17

III-13 Latin America - LAB Supply/Demand, 2010-2013 III-19

III-14 Latin America - LAB Supply/Demand, 2005-2025 III-19

III-15 Latin America - LAB Trade Balance, 2013 III-21

III-16 Central & West Europe - LAB Producers, 2013 III-25

III-17 Central & West Europe - Historical and Forecast LAB Capacities, 2005-2025 III-26

III-18 Central & West Europe - LAB Supply/Demand, 2010-2013 III-28

III-19 Central & West Europe - LAB Supply/Demand, 2013-2025 III-28

III-20 Central & West Europe - LAB Trade Balance, 2013 III-29

III-21 Asia/Pacific - LAB Producers, 2013 III-32

III-22 Asia/Pacific - Historical and Forecast LAB Capacities, 2005-2025 III-35

III-23 Asia/Pacific - LAB Supply/Demand, 2010-2013 III-40

III-24 Asia/Pacific - LAB Supply/Demand Forecast, 2005-2025 III-41

III-25 Asia/Pacific - LAB Trade Balance, 2013 III-43

III-26 East Europe - LAB Producers, 2013 III-48

III-27 East Europe - Historical and Forecast LAB Capacity, 2005-2025 III-49

III-28 East Europe - LAB Supply/Demand, 2010-2013 III-49

III-29 East Europe - LAB Supply/Demand, 2013-2025 III-50

III-30 East Europe - LAB Trade Balance, 2013 III-51

III-31 Middle East & Africa - LAB Producers, 2013 III-54

III-32 Middle East & Africa - Historical and Forecast LAB Capacities, 2005-2025 III-55

III-33 Middle East & Africa - LAB Supply/Demand, 2010-2013 III-59

III-34 Middle East & Africa - LAB Supply/Demand, 2013-2025 III-59

III-35 Middle East & Africa - LAB Trade Balance, 2013 III-61

III-36 World - BAB Producers, 2013 III-65

III-37 U.S. - Historical LAB and Input Prices, 2005-2015 III-70

III-38 U.S. - Forecast LAB and Input Prices, 2015-2025 III-72

III-39 West Europe - Historical LAB and Input Prices, 2005-2015 III-73

III-40 West Europe - Forecast LAB and Input Prices, 2015-2025 III-75

III-41 Asia - Historical LAB and Input Prices, 2005-2015 III-77

III-42 Asia - Forecast LAB and Input Prices, 2015-2025 III-79


CHAPTER FOUR: SURFACTANT END MARKET TRENDS AND ISSUES 34 TABLES


IV-1 World - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 IV-4

IV-2 World - Primary Surfactant Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 IV-6

IV-3 World - Major Primary Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 IV-7

IV-4 North America - Surfactant Consumption by End Market Area, 2005-2025 IV-9

IV-5 North America - Total Primary Surfactant Use, 2005-2025 IV-10

IV-6 North America - Surfactant Consumption in Household Products, 2005-2025 IV-12

IV-7 North America - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial and Institutional Cleaners, 2005-2025 IV-15

IV-8 North America - Surfactant Consumption in Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025 IV-16

IV-9 Major Latin America Trade Union Members IV-18

IV-10 Latin America - Primary Surfactant Consumption by End Market Area, 2005-2025 IV-19

IV-11 Latin America - Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 IV-20

IV-12 Latin America - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Household Products, 2005-2025 IV-22

IV-13 Latin America - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial and Institutional Cleaners, 2005-2025 IV-23

IV-14 Latin America - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025 IV-23

IV-15 Central & West Europe Countries IV-24

IV-16 Central & West Europe - Surfactant Consumption by End Market Area, 2005-2025 IV-25

IV-17 Central & West Europe - Total Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 IV-27

IV-18 Central & West Europe - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Household Products, 2005-2025 IV-28

IV-19 Central & West Europe - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial and Institutional Cleaners, 2005 -2025 IV-29

IV-20 Central & West Europe - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025 IV-31

IV-21 Asia/Pacific - Surfactant Consumption by End Market Area, 2005-2025 IV-33

IV-22 Asia/Pacific - Total Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 IV-35

IV-23 Asia/Pacific - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Household Products, 2005-2025 IV-37

IV-24 Asia/Pacific - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial & Institutional Cleaners, 2005-2025 IV-38

IV-25 Asia/Pacific - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025 IV-39

IV-26 East Europe Countries IV-40

IV-27 East Europe - Surfactant Consumption by End Market Area, 2005-2025 IV-41

IV-28 East Europe - Total Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 IV-42

IV-29 East Europe - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Household Products, 2005-2025 IV-43

IV-30 East Europe - Surfactant Consumption by Type in I&I Cleaners and Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025 IV-43

IV-31 Middle East & Africa - Surfactant Consumption by End Market Area, 2005-2025 IV-45

IV-32 Middle East & Africa - Total Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 IV-46

IV-33 Middle East & Africa - Surfactant Consumption by Type in Household Products, 2005-2025 IV-48

IV-34 Middle East & Africa - Surfactant Consumption by Type in I&I Cleaners and Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025 IV-49


CHAPTER FIVE: ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 10 TABLES


V-1 OECD Screen and Confirmatory Test Conditions V-20

V-2 Tests for Ready Biodegradability Recommended by OECD V-25

V-3 Tests for Inherent Biodegradability Recommended by OECD V-26

V-4 Simulation Tests for Biodegradability V-27

V-5 Primary and Ultimate Biodegradability of LABS and BABS In Standard Laboratory Test Procedures V-29

V-6 Biodegradability Data on Various Surfactants V-43

V-7 Risk Characterization of Four Surfactants In Japan V-52

V-8 Results of Mammalian Toxicology Tests With LABS V-56

V-9 Toxicity Data on Various Surfactants V-64

V-10 AISE Guidelines - Aquatic Toxicity V-69

CHAPTER SIX: LINEAR ALKYLBENZENE SULFONATES 33 TABLES


VI-1 World - Sulfation/Sulfonation Capacity Summary by Region, 2005-2014 VI-3

VI-2 North America - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-4

VI-3 Latin America - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-7

VI-4 Central & West Europe - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-10

VI-5 Asia/Pacific - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-14

VI-6 East Europe - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-22

VI-7 Middle East - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-23

VI-8 Africa - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-25

VI-9 World - LABS Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 VI-30

VI-10 World - LABS Consumption by Major End Use and by Region, 2005-2025 VI-31

VI-11 World - MES Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 VI-33

VI-12 North America - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use, 2005-2025 VI-34

VI-13 North America - Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacities, 2014 VI-35

VI-14 Latin America - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use, 2005-2025 VI-37

VI-15 Latin America - Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-38

VI-16 Central & West Europe - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use, 2005-2025 VI-42

VI-17 Central & West Europe - Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-43

VI-18 Asia/Pacific - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use, 2005-2025 VI-46

VI-19 Asia/Pacific - Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-47

VI-20 East Europe - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use, 2005-2025 VI-56

VI-21 East Europe - Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-57

VI-22 Middle East & Africa - LABS Consumption by Selected End Use, 2005-2025 VI-59

VI-23 Middle East- Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-60

VI-24 Africa - Major LABS Producers, Location and Capacity, 2014 VI-62


LIST OF FIGURES

No. Figure Description Page

I-1 Petrochemicals Used in Surfactant Intermediate Manufacture I-1

I-2 Commercial Utilization Routes of n-Paraffins in Detergent Intermediate Manufacture I-2

I-3 “Pacol-Olex” Unit Configuration I-22

II-1 LAB Transalkylation Reaction II-13

II-2 LAB Process Flow Diagram Including Transalkylation Module II-14

II-3 Projected Reduction (improvement) - n-Paraffin Usage per Ton of LAB II-16

II-4 Projected Economic Benefits of Detal-Plus® - Added Profit in $MM per Year II-17

II-5 CEPSA High 2-Phenyl LAB Process II-18

II-6 CEPSA High 2-Phenyl LAB Process Using Purchased Olefin Feedstock II-19

II-7 CEPSA High 2-Phenyl LAS Formulations With and Without Added Hydrotrope II-20

III-1 U.S. - Historical LAB & Input Prices, 2005-2015 III-71

III-2 U.S. - Forecast LAB & Input Prices, 2015-2025 III-72

III-3 West Europe - Historical LAB & Input Prices, 2005-2015 III-74

III-4 West Europe - Forecast LAB & Input Prices, 2015-2025 III-75

III-5 Asia - Historical LAB & Input Prices, 2005-2015 III-78

III-6 Asia - Forecast LAB & Input Prices, 2015-2025 III-79

IV-1 Regional Liquid/Powder Detergent Outlook, 2015-2025 IV-2

IV-2 North America - Surfactant consumption by End Use IV-9

VI-1 Total LABS Consumption By Region, 2013 and 2025 VI-29

VI-2 World - LABS Consumption By End Use, 2013 VI-31


Table 2 | WORLD - LAB BALANCE, 2013(thousand tons)

Capacity Production Net Imports Net Exports Consumption

North America

Latin America

Central & West Europe

Asia/Pacific

East Europe

Middle East & Africa

TOTAL

Table I-11 | WORLD - NORMAL PARAFFIN DEMAND FOR LAB, 2005-2025(thousand tons)

Raw Material 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025CAGR %

2005-2013CAGR %

2013-2025

North America

Latin America

Central & West Europe

Asia

East Europe

Middle East & Africa

TOTAL

Table II-10 | ESTIMATED PRODUCTION COSTS - INTEGRATED INDIAN LAB PLANT - UOP DETAL® WITH TRANSALKYLATION(thousand tons)

Capacity: 000-T/yr

Capital: $ Million

Date of Estimate Q4 2014

Unit Cost ($/ton) Utilization (tons/ton)

Cost ($/ton of product)

Raw Materials

Kerosene ton

Benzene ton

Others (Catalyst, etc.) ton

SAMPLE TABLES


Capacity: 000-T/yr

Capital: $ Million

Date of Estimate Q4 2014

Unit Cost ($/ton) Utilization (tons/ton)

Cost ($/ton of product)

By-product credit

Light Ends ton

Heavy Alkylate ton

By-product H2 for Fuel ton

Kero Raffinate ton

Net cost of raw material

Utilities

Electricity KWH

Steam mmBTU

Cooling Water mGal

Fuel Oil mmBTU

Total Utilities (fuel, power, steam)

Direct operating cost

Labor (op. and lab) MOR

Supervision and tech. Man

Maintenance (labor & mat) % of inv

Other

Direct and Indirect overhead costs

Total Factory Cost

Total manufacturing cost - unamortized

Amortization @ 10%/year

Sales, Distribution and administrative

Logistics & Transportation

Total costs

Required price @ 12% ATROCE

ATROCE @ prevailing market price

Table III-8 | NORTH AMERICA - LAB SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE, 2010-2013(thousand tons)

2010 2011 2012 2013CAGR %

2010-2013

Demand

Net Exports (Imports)

Production

Capacity

Operating Rate (%)

TOTAL

Table II-10 | ESTIMATED PRODUCTION COSTS - INTEGRATED INDIAN LAB PLANT - UOP DETAL® WITH TRANSALKYLATION (continued)(thousand tons)


Table III-15 | LATIN AMERICA - LAB TRADE BALANCE, 2013(thousand tons)

Country/ProducerProducer Imports Exports

ConsumptionCapacity Production Country Volume Country Volume

ARGENTINA

BRAZIL

VENEZUELA

COLOMBIA

ECUADOR

PERU

CHILE

CENTRAL AMERICA

CARIBBEAN REGION


Country/ProducerProducer Imports Exports

ConsumptionCapacity Production Country Volume Country Volume

Other S. America

TOTAL

Ex-reg. Ex-reg.

Table III-24 | ASIA/PACIFIC - LAB SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECAST, 2005-2025(thousand tons)

2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025CAGR %

2005-2013CAGR %

2013-2025

Demand

Capacity

Surplus (Deficit) Capacity

TOTAL

Table IV-18 | CENTRAL & WEST EUROPE - SURFACTANT CONSUMPTION BY TYPE IN HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS, 2005-2025(thousand tons)

2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025CAGR %

2005-2013CAGR %

2013-2025

LABS

MES

AS

AES

AE

TOTAL a

a Does not include soap

Table III-15 | LATIN AMERICA - LAB TRADE BALANCE, 2013 (continued)(thousand tons)


QUALIFICATIONS AND PERSONNEL

Colin A. Houston & Associates, Inc. was founded in 1971

to provide consulting services to the chemical industry

worldwide. The primary area of expertise is surfactants:

raw materials, intermediates, major surfactants, and the

surfactant consuming industries. Other areas of activity

include: a variety of industry studies on such topics as oilfield

chemicals, detergent builders, ingredients for personal care

products, and bleaching agents; engineering studies such

as a worldwide study of glycerine evaporation plants with

recommendations for improved efficiency; process economics

of world alpha-olefin plants; benchmarking of process

economics for U.S. fatty acid producers; a world study of the

state of the art in spray-drying detergents; contracts with the

U.S. Government to develop industry effluent guidelines; and

business strategy and acquisition studies.

The reputation thus earned by CAHA for comprehensive,

high quality technoeconomic and market analyses has led to

a variety of engineering, marketing, and strategic planning

studies for individual clients in North America, Latin America,

West Europe, Asia/Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.

CAHA completed its first global higher alcohols multiclient

study in 1980, and covered higher alcohols and related issues

in several major multiclient studies during the 1980s including

OLEOCHEMICAL DEVELOPMENTS (1984) and SURFACTANT

INTERMEDIATES AND SOAP - WORLD BALANCES (1984).

Five additional comprehensive global higher alcohols studies

were completed in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2006 and in 2013

with CAHA publishing HIGHER ALCOHOLS TO 2025. These

multiclient studies provide an unparalleled database while

CAHA’s newsletters and ongoing consulting work in surfactant

intermediates and surfactants provide a worldwide service of

up-to-date information and analyses.

The project team approach utilized by CAHA includes a

core of senior and technical professionals augmented by

expert consultant associates. The following synopses present

the staff and consultants who contributed to the study,

DETERGENT ALKYLATES - WORLD MARKETS TO 2025.

Joel H. Houston, President, was the project leader

on HIGHER ALCOHOLS TO 2025 and numerous other

multiclient studies including, NORMAL PARAFFINS - WORLD

MARKETS, 2007-2017, DETERGENT ALKYLATES - WORLD

MARKETS, 2006-2016, OPPORTUNITIES IN PERFORMANCE

SURFACTANTS IN WEST EUROPE, SURFACTANTS FOR

EMERGING MARKETS IN ASIA/PACIFIC, 1996-2010, and

SURFACTANTS FOR CONSUMER PRODUCTS - NORTH

AMERICAN FORECAST TO 2008. He has guided CAHA’s

research in oleochemicals since 1980, and in detergents

since 1987. Mr. Houston has extensive experience in projects

for consumer products, has presented papers at CESIO,

AOCS, BACS, ECMRA and IESD meetings, and is the editor

of CAHA’s global newsletters, LAB MARKET REPORT and

SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS. He is a member of PDMA,

AOCS and ASTM.

Matthew C. Jordan, Vice President, was a contributing

author to DETERGENT ALKYLATES – WORLD MARKETS, 2006-

2016, NORMAL PARAFFINS – WORLD MARKETS, 2007-2017,

and HIGHER ALCOHOLS TO 2025. He is the project leader for

the monthly LAB MARKET REPORT, as well as a contributing

author to CAHA’s SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS and C12-22

REVIEW, A HIGHER ALCOHOLS JOURNAL newsletters.

Since joining CAHA full time in 2007, he has contributed

to several proprietary reports and consulting projects

related to intermediates including normal paraffins and

linear alkylbenzene, as well as surfactant studies on linear

alkylbenzene sulfonates, methyl ester sulfonates, secondary

alkane sulfonates, alpha olefins sulfonates, as well as other

anionic and nonionic products.


John Rapko, Senior Research Associate, has authored

the Higher Alcohols Technologies section of HIGHER

ALCOHOLS TO 2025, and authored sections of DETERGENT

ALKYLATES - WORLD MARKETS, 2006-2016. Dr. Rapko

contributes to CAHA’s LAB MARKET REPORT, and has also

assisted on numerous proprietary studies. In Dr. Rapko’s

33 years of professional experience, he has directed the

work of professional chemists and chemical engineers at all

degree levels in the areas of process development, chemistry,

engineering and assessment of a range of technologies

related to areas such as the manufacture of detergent

alkylate, detergent builders and dehydrogenation catalysts.

He holds a Ph.D. and B.S. in Chemistry (ACS Certified) from

St. Louis University.

Donald M. Faison, Research Associate, is an

expert in market research and statistical analysis of data

with over 20 years experience in actinide chemistry and

non-destructive analysis of gamma-rays and neutrons

in several different laboratories. He was a contributing

author to HIGHER ALCOHOLS TO 2025 and THE C12-22

REVIEW, A HIGHER ALCOHOLS JOURNAL newsletter. Mr.

Faison contributes to CAHA’s monthly newsletter reports

SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS, and the LAB MARKET

REPORT. Since joining CAHA in 2012, he has contributed to

several proprietary studies including: OLEOCHEMICALS IN

LATIN AMERICA, and APE REPLACEMENTS IN THE U.S. He

was a scientist responsible for all aspects of spectroscopy

at two environmental and bio assay laboratory facilities at

the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, in Carlsbad, NM. He was

a Chemist, Radiochemist, and Senior Scientist responsible

for multiple instruments in multiple nuclear facilities. As a

Chemical Engineer, Mr. Faison was responsible for dissolution

of actinide metals and oxides, and anion resin exchange

processes. He is a member of the American Oil Chemists

Society. He holds a B.S. in Chemical Engineering, Clemson

University, (ABET accredited), and a B.S. in Chemistry,

Furman University.


HOW TO SUBSCRIBE

To subscribe to the study please contact CAHA at the address below.


262 Eastgate Drive 323

Aiken, SC 29803 USA

Telephone No.: +1 803-226-0350

E-Mail: [email protected]

Website: www.colin-houston.com


THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK


HIGHER ALCOHOLS TO 2025 (February 2013)

analyzes the scale and potential effect of the rapid build-

up of new fatty alcohol capacity in Southeast Asia. The

study includes synthetic and oleo-derived fatty alcohols

production economics, technology and market forecasts.

Twenty-two in-depth alcohol producer profiles are included.

Surfactant trends and markets are covered for the major

alcohol derivatives.

NORMAL PARAFFINS - WORLD MARKETS, 2007-2017 (February 2009) explores the scale of a looming

shortage and determines the potential impact of gas-to-

liquid n-paraffin capacity to come on-stream in 2011. This

study covers the supply of normal paraffins, producers and

their operations, capacities, integration, and historical and

forecast production by region. It also covers the demand

for normal paraffins, including consumption by region and

by end use, market trends and issues, and future supply/

demand balances.

LIST OF MULTICLIENT STUDIES

OPPORTUNITIES IN PERFORMANCE SURFACTANTS IN WEST EUROPE (January 2007)

provides an in-depth analysis on each of ten specialty

materials. Topics include product performance and

differentiation, costs, consumption and trends, competing

materials and systems, and major customers as well as

producers, including their production and market share.

Thirteen producers are profiled, giving an added perspective

on their overall position in the specialty surfactants market.

ALPHA-OLEFINS - WORLD MARKETS, 2000-2010 AND ALPHA-OLEFIN MARKET INTELLIGENCE DATABASE (September 2001) analyzes all the factors

affecting alpha-olefin supply and demand. It assesses the

impact of new plants and potential new producers and

quantifies production and consumption by chain length and

by region. It provides detailed data on over 20 individual

end use markets including producers, production, market

trends and alpha-olefin consumption.


LAB MARKET REPORT - is designed to bring together,

in one concise monthly publication, all the news of interest

to LAB market participants. CAHA has published this report

since 2001. It offers current information on the entire LAB

value chain from raw materials to detergents and other

end uses. There are a range of relevant feature articles

included. Each one offers a timely and concise review of the

subject without entering into excruciating historical content

but, nevertheless, providing sufficient content and coverage

so that our readership walks away with a complete picture.

The annually updated LAB DATABASE, included with the

subscription, contains the complete list of detergent

alkylate producers and capacities by region, the LAB trade

balance and LAB price history. A one year subscription

(January-December) to the LAB MARKET REPORT AND

DATABASE includes 12 monthly issues. Delivery of the

newsletter is via Internet access.

SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS NEWSLETTER - keeps surfactant producers informed of key news and

developments occurring in their market in a form that

is both concise and thorough. It is designed to help

subscribers make efficient use of their time while gaining

useful knowledge of specific developments and enlarging

their understanding of the major issues shaping the market.

CAHA began publication of this newsletter in 2003, as an

extension of the multiclient SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS

- FORECAST TO 2010. A one year subscription (January-

December) includes four quarterly issues. Delivery of the

newsletter is via Internet access.

LIST OF NEWSLETTERS


Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.AkzoNobelAlbemarle Corp.AmwayAradetArdorAshland ChemicalAvon Products, Inc.BASFBayer AGBliss ChemicalBoraxCalgon Corp.Cargill, Inc.CasChemCECACentral SoyaCEPSAChemithonChemturaChevron Corp.Chevron Phillips ChemicalClariant International Ltd.Clorox Co.Colgate-PalmoliveCytec Industries Inc.Daelim Industrial Co., Ltd.Deten Química S.A.Dow ChemicalDSMDyno IndustriesEastman Chemical ProductsEcogreen OleochemicalsEcolabE.I. duPont de Nemours & CoElevance Renewable SciencesEmery OleochemicalsEthyl Corp.EvonikExxonMobil Chemical Co.Farabi Petrochemical Co.

FluorFMC Corp.Galaxy SurfactantsGenencorGivaudanHaarman & Reimer Corp.HansaHenkelHoneywell International - UOPHuntsman Corp.ICIICIdemitsu Petrochemical Co. Ltd.IMC Corp.Indian Oil Corp.INEOSInolex Corp.ISU ChemicalJX Nippon Oil and Energy Corp.Kao Corp.Kemira OyKuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (KLK)Lam Soon Oil & Soap Mfg.Laporte Industries PLCLion Corp.Lonza Inc.Lubrizol Corp.Lyondell ChemicalsMillenium Chemical Corp.Mitsubishi ChemicalMitsui & Co.MuntajatMusim Mas/ICOFNalco ChemicalNeste OyNova ChemicalNovozymes A/SOccidental Petroleum/OxychemOLEON N.V.ONIDOLOxenoOxiteno

PenolesPersanPilot Chemical CompanyPQ Corp.Procter & GamblePZ CussonsReckitt BenckiserReliance IndustriesRuetgers Corp.SABICSasolS.C. Johnson & SonSEEF Ltd.Shell Chemical LPSI GroupSolvay S.A.SpolanaStepan CompanySterling Chemicals, Inc.SumitomoSunocoTamilnadu Petroproducts Ltd.TasweeqTetra TechnologiesThai Ethoxylates - PTTTotalFinaElfToyota TsushoTufail ChemicalsUnger Fabrikker A.S.UnileverUniqemaUnited Coconut Chemicals, Inc.UnocalVarelaVenocoVertellus Specialties, Inc.Vulcan ChemicalWarwick International Ltd.WeylChemWilmar InternationalW.R. Grace & Co.YPF

AMONG CAHA’S CLIENTS ARE:

CHEMICAL MARKET RESEARCH EXPERTS SINCE 1971


262 Eastgate Drive 323Aiken, South Carolina 29803 USATelephone 1 803-226-0350Email [email protected] www.colin-houston.com

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