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Determinants of the Trilemma Policy Combination

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    LKOG Z`rignj Ulpdr ]drgds

    Kdtdrcgnlnts `h tad

    [rgbdccl U`bgmy M`cognltg`n

    Agr` Gt`lnk Clslagr` Ilwlg

    N`. ;48

    Flnulry ?5

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    [ad Z`rignj Ulpdr sdrgds gs l m`ntgnultg`n `h tad h`rcdrby nlcdk Kgsmussg`n Ulpdr sdrgds9tad nucodrgnj `h tad plpdrs m`ntgnudk wgta`ut gntdrruptg`n `r malnjd. LKOGs w`rignjplpdrs rdhbdmt gngtglb gkdls `n l t`pgm lnk lrd p`stdk `nbgnd h`r kgsmussg`n. LKOG dnm`urljdsrdlkdrs t` p`st tadgr m`ccdnts `n tad clgn pljd h`r dlma w`rignj plpdr (jgvdn gn tadmgtltg`n odb`w). ]`cd w`rignj plpdrs cly kdvdb`p gnt` `tadr h`rcs `h puobgmltg`n.

    ]ujjdstdk mgtltg`n6

    Gt`, A., lnk C. Ilwlg. ?5

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    LKOG Z`rignj Ulpdr ;48 Gt` lnk Ilwlg

    Lostrlmt

    Zd prdsdnt l tad`rdtgmlb hrlcdw`ri h`r p`bgmy clignj olsdk `n tad gcp`ssgobd trgngty `r tad

    trgbdccl ayp`tadsgs. L sgcpbd `ptgcgzltg`n c`kdb sa`ws talt pblmgnj c`rd wdgjat gn tdrcs`h prdhdrdnmd h`r dlma `h tad tardd `pdn clmr`dm`n`cgm p`bgmgdsdxmalnjd rltd stlogbgty,hgnlnmglb clridt `pdnndss, lnk c`ndtlry p`bgmy gnkdpdnkdnmdm`ntrgoutds t` l agjadr bdvdb`h lmagdvdcdnt gn talt plrtgmublr p`bgmy. Zd tadn kdvdb`p tad hgrst dcpgrgmlb hrlcdw`ri gn tadbgtdrlturd t` gnvdstgjltd tad f`gnt kdtdrcgnltg`n `h tad trglk `pdn clmr`dm`n`cgm p`bgmgdsolsdk `n tad trgbdccl ayp`tadsgs. ]pdmghgmlbby, wd dstgcltd tad tardd p`bgmy gnkdxds unkdrtad trgbdccl m`nstrlgnt talt tady cust lkk up t` l m`nstlnt. Oy lppbygnj tad sddcgnjbyunrdbltdk rdjrdssg`n (]T_) dstgcltg`n cdta`k lnk dcpb`ygnj `tadr r`oustndss madmis, wdkdc`nstrltd talt sgcpbd dm`n`cgm lnk strumturlb hunklcdntlbs kdtdrcgnd tad trgbdccl

    p`bgmy m`cognltg`ns. Blst, wd dxlcgnd a`w kdvgltg`ns hr`c tad `ptgclb trgbdccl p`bgmym`cognltg`ns dv`bvd lr`unk tad tgcd `h l hgnlnmglb mrgsgs. U`bgmy m`cognltg`ns sddc t`vg`bltd tad trgbdccl m`nstrlgnt wadn l murrdnmy, olnignj, `r kdot mrgsgs ordlis `ut. [adsdhgnkgnjs sujjdst talt kdvgltg`ns hr`c tad trgbdccl ayp`tadsgs w`ubk mrdltd p`bgmy strdss,wagma w`ubk alvd t` clnghdst gtsdbh gn l mrgsgs unbdss p`bgmy clidrs lkfust tad p`bgmym`cognltg`n gn l wly m`nsgstdnt wgta tad trgbdccl m`nstrlgnt.

    FDB Mblssghgmltg`n6H

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    LKOG Z`rignj Ulpdr ;48 Gt` lnk Ilwlg

    M`ntdnts

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    LKOG Z`rignj Ulpdr ;48 Gt` lnk Ilwlg

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    LKOG Z`rignj Ulpdr ;48 Gt` lnk Ilwlg

    Zagbd agst`ry gs hubb `h dpgs`kds wgta systdcs talt rdprdsdnt suma m`rndr s`butg`ns ls

    tad J`bk ]tlnklrk, Ordtt`n Z``ks, lnk c`rd rdmdntby tad dur`z`nd, m`untrgds clylk`pt ln gntdrcdkgltd m`cognltg`n `h tad tardd p`bgmy j`lbs. Gn `tadr w`rks, tadluta`rgtgds m`ubk lk`pt l p`bgmy talt mln od rdprdsdntdk oy lnyk`t gnsgkd tad trglnjbd.[adrd lrd ln gnhgngtd nucodr `h suma p`bgmy m`cognltg`ns. [ad rdls`n talt p`bgmyclidrs cly sdbdmt suma l k`t gs talt tady alvd t` m`cpr`cgsd oy n`t hubby lmagdvgnj lbbtardd kdsgrlobd p`bgmy j`lbs, talt gs, tady hlmd l k`uobd-dkjdk sw`rk gn sdbdmtgnj tadbdvdb `h lttlgncdnt gn dlma `h tad tardd p`bgmy j`lbs. H`r dxlcpbd, jrdltdr dxmalnjdrltd stlogbgty mln bdlk t` tad b`ss `h c`ndtlry p`bgmy gnkdpdnkdnmd unkdr hubb hgnlnmglbclridt `pdnndss, `r pdrhdmt mlpgtlb c`ogbgty. < Agjaby `pdn hgnlnmglb clridts w`ubk

    clid tad dm`n`cy vubndrlobd t` dxtdrnlb hgnlnmglb sa`mis lnk mlpgtlb hb`w v`bltgbgty,mrdltgnj o``c lnk oust mymbds `r hgnlnmglb mrgsds. Agja bdvdbs `h c`ndtlry p`bgmygnkdpdnkdnmd m`ubk klcljd hgsmlb kgsmgpbgnd tar`uja c`ndtgzltg`n h s`vdrdgjn kdot.

    [aus, ln `stdnsgoby sgcpbd ayp`tadsgs `h tad trgbdccl m`ubk dlsgby turn gnt` m`cpbdxp`bgmy clnljdcdnt gn tad `pdn clmr`dm`n`cgm sdttgnj. [ad trgbdccl m`nstrlgntstltds talt p`bgmy clidrs alvd t` sdbdmt tad bdvdbs `h lttlgncdnt h`r lt c`st tw` `ut `htad tardd p`bgmy ma`gmds wgta tad blst `nd lut`cltgmlbby kdtdrcgndk. [ags dssdntglbbycdlns talt tad gnkdxds m`nstrumtdk t` cdlsurd tad dxtdnt `h lttlgncdnt h`r dlma `h tad

    tardd p`bgmy j`lbs lrd bgndlrby rdbltdk, g.d., tady lkk up t` l m`nstlnt (Cunkdbb

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    LKOG Z`rignj Ulpdr ;48 Gt` lnk Ilwlg

    ?. ]GCUBD @U[GCGVL[G@N TNKD_ [AD [_GBDCCLM@N][_LGN[

    Zd m`nstrumt l sgcpbd tad`rdtgmlb c`kdb talt dnlobds us t` prdkgmt tad `ptgclbm`cognltg`n `h tad tardd p`bgmgds unkdr tad trgbdccl m`nstrlgnt. H`r tags purp`sd, wdclid tw` lssucptg`ns. Hgrst, kdspgtd tadgr k`uobd-dkjdk sw`rk nlturd, p`bgmy clidrstdnk t` h`mus `nby `n tad p`sgtgvd lspdmts `h tad trglk `pdn clmr`dm`n`cgm p`bgmgdsdxmalnjd rltd stlogbgty, hgnlnmglb clridt `pdnndss, lnk c`ndtlry p`bgmygnkdpdnkdnmdlnk pursud agjadr bdvdbs `h lttlgncdnt gn lbb tardd p`bgmgds. [alt gs,

    tady odbgdvd agjadr lttlgncdnt bdvdbs gn tadsd p`bgmgds wgbb adbp tadc odttdr stlogbgzdtadgr dm`n`cgds. ]dm`nk, p`bgmy clidrs lrd m`nstrlgndk oy tad bgndlr rdbltg`nsagp `htad tardd p`bgmgds. Gn `tadr w`rks, gh lmagdvdcdnt gn tad tardd p`bgmy j`lbs mln odcdlsurdk oy s`cd n`rclbgzdk gnkdxds, tad suc `h tad tardd gnkdxds cust od lm`nstlnt. C`rd spdmghgmlbby, gh dlma `h tad gnkdxds gs lssucdk t` rlnjd hr`c 5 t`

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    LKOG Z`rignj Ulpdr ;48 Gt` lnk Ilwlg

    ?.< Jrlpagmlb Urdsdntltg`n

    Hgjurd ? pr`vgkds ln gntugtgvd gbbustrltg`n `h tad `ptgcgzltg`n pr`obdc, sa`wgnj tadtrgbdccl trglnjbd gn l tardd kgcdnsg`nlb k`clgn. [ad trgbdccl trglnjbd gn Hgjurd < gsdqugvlbdnt t` tad salkdk plrt `h tad dqugbltdrlb trglnjublr surhlmd (g.d., tad klri-salkdktrglnjbd) `h l pyrlcgk talt als tad olsd lnk tad sgkds `h gs`smdbds rgjat trglnjbds wgta ladgjat `h ? gn dlma m`rrdsp`nkgnj lxgs. [ad salkdk pblgn `h tad dqugbltdrlb trglnjbd gtsdbhals l adgjat `h

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    LKOG Z`rignj Ulpdr ;48 Gt` lnk Ilwlg

    w`rks, tad p`bgmy clidr trgds t` ma``sd tad dbbgps`gk talt t`umads tad trgbdccl pblgn

    lnk taus cgngcgzds tad kgstlnmd hr`c gts mdntdr. Adnmd, gh tad dbbgps`gk gs pblmdk `utsgkdtad trgbdccl m`nstrlgnt, wgta`ut odgnj tlnjdnt t` tad trgbdccl pblgn, suma l p`bgmym`cognltg`n gs gnhdlsgobd. Gh gt gs pblmdk gn l wly talt tad dbbgps`gk mr`ssds tad trgbdcclpblgn, wgta`ut tlnjdnmy, suma ln `utm`cd gs gndhhgmgdnt, g.d., tad p`bgmy clidr gs n`tutgbgzgnj lbb tad `pp`rtungtgds lvlgblobd, ta`uja gt gs hdlsgobd. L tw`-kgcdnsg`nlblnlb`j`us pgmturd gs kgspblydk gn Hgjurd =. Ls tad hgjurd kdc`nstrltds, tad `ofdmtgvdhunmtg`n wgta tad dbbgps`gk salpd gs lnlb`j`us t` tad utgbgty hunmtg`n lnk tad trgbdcclm`nstrlgnt t` tad oukjdt m`nstrlgnt.

    Hgjurd =6 @ptgcgzltg`n gn tad [w` Kgcdnsg`ns

    Hdlsgobd,outn`tdhhgmgdnt

    N`thdlsgobd

    Dhhgmgdntlnkhdlsgobd

    ?=?

    ?

    ?

    <

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    LKOG Z`rignj Ulpdr ;48 Gt` lnk Ilwlg

    Hgjurd ;6 @ptgcgzltg`n unkdr tad [rgbdccl M`nstrlgnt

    ;.L6 Zadn H@3


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