Detroit: A Tale of Two Cities

A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate

Data Driven Detroit: Detroit by the Numbers

Detroit Revitalization Fellows

Erica Raleigh, Data Driven Detroit

August 2015

Affiliated with the Michigan Nonprofit Association A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate

• Introduction to D3

• Using Data to Tell a Story –

Demographic Shifts in Metro Detroit

• How Can Data Help?

• Quick Look at the D3 Site

Overview


Data Smog

A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate A Michigan Nonprofit Association Affiliate

Existing Data Sources


Difficulties with the existing system

Dispersed administrative sources

There are so many of them!

Some admin sources still locked

Some are still on paper

Not all data we need for community decision-making actually exist

So what do we do?

How do people get informed?


How do we synthesize the information in a

way that’s meaningful for everyone?



Data Driven Detroit provides accessible

high-quality information and analysis to

drive informed decision-making.

Mission


Data…



Data…


Integrating Existing Data

Data Source

Tax Assessment Rolls

City of Detroit Tax Assessor

American Community Survey

U.S. Census Bureau

Criminal Offenses Detroit Police Department

Open School Locations Center for Educational

Performance & Information

Air Emissions Environmental Protection Agency


Developing New Data

Physical condition of urban environment

Detroit Residential Parcel Survey in 2009

o Housing Type

o Condition / Fire Damage

o Occupancy

o Vacant Lot Status


Developing New Data


Detroit Comprehensive Parcel Survey in 2014

o Housing Type


o Occupancy

o Vacant Lot Status


Data…




Data…



Data…



Community Engagement


Data Workshops


On-Air with WDET


LocalData Mobile App

1. Select the parcel 2. Submit results 3. Map updates


Collect, Interact, Explore!



Data Driven…


Detroit: Sprawl & Consequences


Source: U.S. EPA


“Housing Disassembly Line”

Since 1950 we have built an average of

10,000 more housing units in the tri-county

area each year than households required

Excess supply on the fringe causes

successive filtering outward, leaving tens

of thousands of vacant dwellings in the

core

Source: George Galster, Driving Detroit: The Quest for Respect in the Motor City


285,7

04

467,7

66

993,6

78

1,5

68,6

62

1,6

23,4

52

1,8

49,5

68

1,6

70,1

44

1,5

14,0

63

1,2

03,3

68

1,0

27,9

74

951,2

70

713,7

77

296,5

32

293,7

15

474,2

86

813,5

33

990,3

92

1,4

95,2

25

2,5

11,2

10

3,2

21,9

45

3,4

79,3

58

3,5

62,4

94

3,8

82,2

23

3,9

90,9

66

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Detroit

7-County Suburbs

The 1950’s Marked the Turning Point

for Detroit’s Population Decline

Source: Census Bureau

















2000-2010 Population Change

Detroit: -25%

Inner ring

Ferndale: -10%

Dearborn: +0.4%

Southfield: -8%

Fringe

Oakland Charter Township: +28%

Lenox Township: +24%

Canton Township: +18%


Detroit Stats

Vacant commercial and

residential addresses (2013):

28.3%

Parcels without structures (2014):

30.2%

Publicly owned parcels (2014):

>80,000

Tax foreclosures, soon to be

publicly owned parcels:

70,000-90,000

(~380,000 parcels in Detroit)


Detroit Housing

61% of owner-occupied housing units are

valued below $50,000

34% of these households pay more than 30% of household income on housing

66% of renter-occupied households pay more than 30% of household income on

housing

Source: Census Bureau, 2013 ACS




7.0

%

16.2

%

17.9

%

21.0

%

25.9

%

9.3

%

8.2

%

25.8

%

24

.3%

15.7

%

38.1

%

13.4

%

45.4

%

29.1

%

27.5

%

26.2

%

50.0

%

46

.3%

77.4

%

45.7

%

68.7

%

33.6

%

45.1

%

63.2

%

65.6

%

24.2

%

29

.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Detroit Cleveland Chicago Indianapolis Pittsburgh Atlanta Los Angeles Phoenix Portland

Beyond 10 Miles

3 to 10 Miles

Within 3 Miles

Detroit is the Most Decentralized (Sprawled) Employment Metro in the US

Source: Brookings Institution, Job Sprawl Revisited, 2009

• 108,000 Jobs lost between 1998 and 2006 • 3.1% Growth of jobs beyond 10 miles away


Employment:Population Unemployment Rate

United States 58.6 8.1%

Detroit-Warren-Livonia MSA 53.3 10.5%

Wayne County 47.7 13.8%

Detroit 39.7 19.7%

Detroit’s unemployment rate is 2.5 times that of the U.S.,

with an employment to population ratio level at 2/3 of the U.S.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


Detroit Stats (2013),

Population 25 and Older

Bachelor’s degree or higher:

13%

High school diploma or less:

54%


0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

United States Michigan Macomb Oakland Washtenaw Out-Wayne Detroit

Bachelor's Degree or Higher

Associate's Degree

Some College, no Degree

HS Graduate

Less than HS

Michigan and Parts of SE Michigan, particularly Detroit, Trail the Nation

in Education Attainment of Working Age (25-64 Years) Population

Source: Census Bureau, 2010 ACS


Detroit Stats (2013)

Total population in poverty:

41%

Children in poverty:

59%



Median Household Income in 2010 Adjusted US Dollars 1999 (2000 Census) 2010 ACS Change Percent Change

United States 54,941 50,046 -4,905 -8.90%

Michigan 58,449 45,413 -13,036 -22.30%

Detroit MSA 64,348 48,198 -16,150 -25.10%

City of Detroit 38,636 29,526 -12,849 -33.30%

Source: 2000 Census and 2010 ACS

*Note: All 1999 monetary values are adjusted to 2010 US

dollars using the US Consumer Price Research Series index for

All Urban Consumers (CPI-U-RS) from 1999 to 2009.

Source: US Department of Labor

Household Incomes Throughout Michigan Have

Decreased at Rates Three Times that of the Nation


Detroit Revenue Sources

Property tax

Income tax

Other local taxes

State revenue sharing



Property tax

Declining occupancy, decreasing values

Income tax

Other local taxes




Property tax


Income tax

High unemployment, low income, business

exodus

Other local taxes




Property tax


Income tax


exodus

Other local taxes

Decline expected to continue




Property tax


Income tax


exodus

Other local taxes

Decline expected to continue


Continuing decline


Developing New Data


Detroit Residential Parcel Survey in 2009

o Housing Type


o Occupancy

o Vacant Lot Status


The Story of Neighborhood

Blight



Blight



Blight



Blight


2014


2009 – 350,000 on Paper!


2014 – We Have The Technology!



Survey Questions

What: Step 1:

Take a Photo

Questions about Structures

Use

Units

Condition

Occupancy

Open/Boarded

Dumping

Questions about Vacant Lots

Use

Park/Garden/Parking

Improved/Unimproved

Maintenance

Dumping


Collaboration, Inclusion, and

Data-Driven Decision Making




Collaboration –

The Historic Resource Survey


Broadening the Databases

DTE Energy gas and electric shutoffs

Historic district boundaries

Fire department incidents

Water shutoffs

Detroit Future City current and future land use

Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac

REO inventory

Aggregated pre-foreclosure data

Historic Resource Survey

Open and dangerous buildings list

Detroit Land Bank Authority current inventory

Valassis Direct Mailing, Inc., vacancy data

Fire escrow fund

Tax foreclosures

Tax distress

Wayne County Register of Deeds

Mortgages

Sheriff’s sales

Building permits

Business licenses

Detroit Parcel Inventory

Properties sold at tax auction

Michigan Land Bank Fast Track Authority current inventory



The MCI: A Tool for making Data

Driven Decisions


Beginning at a Neighborhood

Level

Positive impact of intervention is greatest in the “tipping point” neighborhoods

Tipping Point

Area

Sta

bili

ty o

f

Ne

igh

bo

rho

od

Low

High

Time


How does it work?

Two-tier process

Neighborhood Dynamics Index: Identify

areas that best meet objectives for

intervention

Neighborhood Threat Index: Identify “tipping

point” areas within geographies highlighted

by Dynamics Index


Indices are calculated sequentially:

Neighborhood

Dynamics Score

Neighborhood Threat

Score

How does it work?

Highest Potential Impact

Higher Potential Impact

Lower Potential Impact

Lowest Potential Impact

Highest Threat

Elevated Threat

Moderate Threat

Lowest Threat

Areas for

Prioritized

Interventions


The MCI in Action

Improve quality of life for the greatest number of people

Improve the investment climate to the greatest degree possible

Two goals that frame the analysis:


The MCI in Action

Data for the indices were assembled at the Census Block Group level

Neighborhood

Dynamics Index

Neighborhood Threat

Index

• Occupied Structures

per Square Mile

• Average Structure

Condition Rating

• Population Under 18

per Square Mile

• Mortgage Transactions

per Square Mile

• Foreclosures per

Square Mile, 2008-

2013 (sum of Sheriff’s

Sales and Tax

Foreclosures)

• Change in residential

average condition

rating since 2009




Summary of High-Threat, High-Impact

Neighborhoods

% of Population Under 18: 30.22%

% of Occupied Structures: 30.18%

% of Detroit’s Land Area: 15.72%

Total Population (2010): 193,384

Population <18 (2010): 58,435

Occupied Structures: 61,449


What Comes After?

Drilling down into the identified High- and

Elevated-Threat areas:

Assess on a parcel and block level which

locations are optimal for staging interventions

Interventions could incorporate a wide range

of policy options, including building removal,

rehabilitation, and foreclosure prevention


A Foundation for Ongoing Analysis

The MCI can be periodically re-tooled to

account for changing conditions, as long

as the data are updated

Intervention areas will continually evolve

as conditions change


Is Detroit Dead? - Peter Eisinger, Journal of Urban

Affairs, October 27, 2013

Photo Sources: nytimes.com



Resources

Data Driven Detroit

Open Data Site

One D Scorecard

Other Tools and Maps

Motor City Mapping

Detroit Blight Removal Task Force

Detroit Future City

City of Detroit Open Data Portal

http://datadrivendetroit.org/portfolio/

http://portal.datadrivendetroit.org/

http://onedscorecard.datadrivendetroit.org/

http://datadrivendetroit.org/portfolio/

https://www.motorcitymapping.org/#t=overview&s=detroit&f=all

http://www.timetoendblight.com/

http://detroitfuturecity.com/

https://data.detroitmi.gov/


Erica Raleigh

[email protected]

Looking for data?

[email protected]

@D3detroit

www.DataDrivenDetroit.org

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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Detroit: A Tale of Two Cities

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