Developed thinking in an emerging worldEmerging Markets DebtFor professional clients only
2
3
Despite high volatility from a series of financial and economic crises, returns for emerging markets debt have generally outpaced those of traditional asset classes over the last ten years. An improving outlook and investors gaining increasing comfort has led to strong performance from many emerging market bond markets, contributing to higher long-term average annualized returns. Typically, low correlations between emerging markets debt indices and traditional asset classes highlight the potential diversification benefits of adding emerging markets bonds to fixed income portfolios.
Significant evolution in emerging markets (EM) over the past 15 years
– Structural improvements in fiscal and monetary policy resulting in improved sovereign credit ratings in many emerging
market countries
Emerging markets debt is gradually assuming more importance in investors’ asset allocations
– The higher spread typically associated with emerging market bonds and relatively low default rates continue to attract
a growing and diversified investor base
Emerging markets carry, on balance, more risk than some traditional developed market investments
– Additional risk historically reflected in price volatility
– Regulatory, legal and governance practices are often less rigorous than their developed market counterparts
Global emerging markets remained resilient during the recent crisis in the developed world
– Generally stable debt metrics and higher growth rates
– Many emerging market countries have very strong foreign currency reserve position
The views and opinions herein are those of HSBC Global Asset Management, are subject to change without notice, and are based on current market
conditions. The material is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute advice or a recommendation to buy or sell investments, and is
not intended as an offer or solicitation of a purchase or sale of any financial instrument or strategy. Any forecast, projection or target contained in this
document is subject to change, is for informational purposes only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC accepts no liability for failure to meet such
forecasts, projections or targets. Past performance is not an indication of future returns.
All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Equity securities are more volatile than bonds and are subject to greater risks. Bonds
are subject to interest-rate, price and credit risks. Prices tend to be inversely affected by changes in interest rates. Investments in high yield (commonly
known as “junk bonds”) are often considered speculative investments and have significantly higher credit risk than investment-grade securities.
Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, and market risks. The risks of investing in emerging-market
countries are greater than the risks generally associated with foreign investments.
4
Sound long-term story
We believe there is a strong long-term case for emerging
markets, especially when compared to the weaker growth
opportunities presently offered by many developed nations.
Emerging market fundamentals, such as the debt / GDP
ratio and current account balance, are significantly stronger
than in many developed markets as shown in Chart 1.
Chart 1. Gross public debt (EM vs DM)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
% o
f G
DP
E m erging E conom ies A dvanced E conom ies US A
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook as of 30 April 2012.
Many emerging market countries experienced financial
crises in the 1990’s and early 2000’s stemming, in large
part, from fixed exchange rates pegged to the US dollar. In
response to these crises, most emerging market countries
implemented monetary policies that abandoned the
currency pegs and allowed their currencies to float, adjusting
to economic and market developments. This allowed them
to accumulate substantial foreign currency reserves, and by
2008, the international reserves in many emerging market
countries exceeded their foreign debt, thus positioning them
as net creditors for the first time.
In April 2012 emerging market foreign exchange (FX)
reserves were eight times larger than they were a decade
ago as noted in Chart 2 and are nearly double the foreign
exchange reserves of developed economies in general. Their
strong positions allowed many emerging market countries
to implement countercyclical policies during the 2008 global
financial crisis. Consequently, during the past three years as
many areas of the world found themselves in the throes of
a recession, most emerging market economies continued to
grow and increase their share of the global economy as seen
in Chart 3.
Chart 2. Emerging markets foreign currency reserves
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
US
$ B
illio
ns
E m erging M arkets International Reserves
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook as of 30 April 2012.
Chart 3. Shifting centre of gravity of the world economy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 F 2016 F
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
Wo
rld
A dvanced E conom ies (GDP) A dvanced E conom ies (P P P )
E m erging E conom ies (P P P ) E m erging E conom ies (GDP )
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook as of 30 April 2012.
The Case for Emerging Markets Debt
There has been a significant evolution of emerging markets debt over the past fifteen years, with the asset class benefitting
from structural improvements and an expanding investor base. The move away from fixed exchange rates coupled with
increased foreign exchange reserves and more disciplined fiscal and monetary policies have improved fundamentals among
many emerging market countries across Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asia. As a result of these improving fundamentals,
many country’s credit ratings have been upgraded and over half of emerging markets are now investment grade issuers (as
seen in Chart 4). Because of the shifting risk profile and stronger fundamentals than most developed markets, emerging
markets debt is gradually assuming a more important place in investors’ asset allocations.
5
Strategic allocation for international fixed income investors
Global emerging markets have continued to prove their
resilience during the recent periods of stress in the
developed world. Many emerging markets have experienced
increased decoupling and have become less dependent
on developed economies translating in much higher overall
expected growth than for developed markets in general. For
these reasons, we feel emerging markets will likely continue
to outperform most developed markets on a structural
basis as long as policy makers continue to employ sound
macroeconomic policies. With the current low interest
rate environment, we continue to see investors increasing
their strategic allocation to emerging market debt given the
potentially attractive yields and improving fundamentals of
the asset class. These improving fundamentals as well as
low financing needs generally provide emerging market
countries more policy flexibility than developed markets,
thus increasing the potential for their economies to continue
growing at a faster rate.
Quality at the right price
While many developed market ratings have steadily fallen
since 2009, most emerging markets ratings continued to
rise. The relative change in credit ratings as seen in Chart
4 reflects the improving fundamentals of emerging market
countries in general, namely stable debt levels, current
account surpluses, controlled inflation, and tighter monetary
policies. We believe these factors will likely promote faster
economic growth and better return potential for investors
over the long-term.
Recently, while many European countries have been
downgraded, the investment world has witnessed a
significant number of credit rating upgrades in emerging
market sovereigns and corporates, including those of Brazil,
Peru, and Panama as highlighted in Chart 5. We expect
emerging market sovereign upgrades to continue to exceed
downgrades in 2012. Over 45 emerging market countries
are now rated investment grade, equating to over 60% of
the universe as can be seen in the chart on page 5. The
better credit quality that many emerging market sovereigns
have been able to achieve should provide some level of
comfort to investors.
Chart 4. EMBI Global credit quality
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Investment Grade B B B Res idual
Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management as of
31 July 2012.
Expanding debt universe*
The emerging market debt universe continues to grow.
Global inflows to dedicated emerging markets fixed income
funds have surpassed US$50 billion in July 2012. We expect
continued expansion of the emerging markets debt universe
as emerging markets GDP growth is forecasted at 4.6%
growth for 2012 compared to 1.1% growth for developed
economies. Compared to previous years, the majority of
this new issuance in 2012 will likely come from investment
grade issuers, rather than high yield issuers. For example,
so far in 2012, approximately 80% of new emerging markets
sovereign and corporate bond issuance has been rated
investment grade.
*Source: JP Morgan, as of 11 August 2012.
6
Chart 5. Trends in credit ratings: Emerging Markets versus Developed Markets 2000 – 2012
While emerging markets ratings have improved across the board, those in many of their developed counterparts fell over the
period. All emerging markets nations below are now more highly rated than Greece, with only Venezuela ranked below Portugal.
Many countries, such as Brazil, India, Mexico and Russia, now have an investment grade credit rating.
Non-investment grade Investment grade
CC CC+ CCC- CCC CCC+ B- B B+ BB- BB BB+ BBB- BBB BBB+ A- A A+ AA- AA AA+ AAA
Em
erg
ing
Mar
kets
Brazil □ ●Chile □ ●China □ ●Colombia □ ●Czech Rep. □ ●India □ ●Israel □ ●Malaysia □ ●Mexico □ ●Panama □ ●Peru □ ●Poland □ ●Russia □ ●Singapore □ ●South Africa □ ●Thailand □ ●Turkey □ ●Venezuela □ ●
CC CC+ CCC- CCC CCC+ B- B B+ BB- BB BB+ BBB- BBB BBB+ A- A A+ AA- AA AA+ AAA
Dev
elo
ped
Mar
kets
Belgium ● □France ● □Germany □ ●Greece ● □Ireland ● □Italy ● □Japan ● □Netherlands □ ●Norway □●Portugal ● □Spain ● □Sweden □●Switzerland □●UK □●United States ● □
2000 □ July 2012 ●Source: S&P as of 31 July 2012. For illustrative purposes only. Ratings are those of S&P and may differ from other rating agencies.
7
Understanding external (hard) currency and local currency indices
Hard Currency (USD)JPM EMBI Global Div Index
Local CurrencyJPM GBI-EM Global Div Index
Duration (years) 6.82 4.56
Yield (%) 5.14 5.22
Number of countries in Index 48 14
% of sovereign 80 100
% of quasi-sovereign 20 0
% corporate 0 0Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, JP Morgan as of 30 June 2012. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future.
External (hard) currency market
The idea of owning an emerging market country’s debt, but
denominated in a global currency such as the US dollar, yen
and euro, was founded on the notion that these currencies
could prove to be a reliable hedge if an issuing country were
to come under pressure.
Over the past two decades, hard currency denominated
emerging markets debt has earned a place in the core of
many investors’ portfolios based on its improving credit
quality and lower volatility.
When allocating to the hard currency broad universe
investment set, investors have access to over 70 countries in
Latin America, Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa and the
Middle East.
Local currency markets
The local currency market has grown steadily over the
past decade as both sovereign and corporate issuers have
been motivated to borrow locally allowing them to reduce
the volatility of their debt service given their more flexible
exchange rate regimes. This shift is particularly true for
government bond issuers. In recent years, local-currency
bond markets have expanded considerably in several
countries. Growing interest from local investors, particularly
from pension funds, has played a key role in the development
of domestic debt markets in emerging markets.
When allocating to the local currency investment universe,
investors have access to over 45 countries in Latin America,
Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
Mainly USD issuance
Brady bonds and Eurobonds follow international law (low legislation risk)
Borrower (issuer) generally pays a lower spread than in their own currency
Longer duration
Advantages
High exposure to exchange rate risk (eg USD volatility)
Historically lower yields for investor compared to local currency bonds in general
Disadvantages
Generally higher yields for investors compared to hard currency
Real yields in local currency EM likely to continue trading at a premium as EM inflation is historically higher than in developed markets overall
Shorter duration
Historically higher protection against a rise in US Treasury yields
Hedge against potential US dollar weakness
Improving credit ratings of many local currency markets. Majority now rated investment grade
Advantages
Higher exposure to exchange rate risk
Interest rate risk
Regulatory risk
Liquidity risk
Higher volatility
Disadvantages
External (hard) currency Local currency
Advantages and disadvantages
Benchmark characteristics
8
Competitive advantages
HSBC’s global footprint
Extensive knowledge and insights from one of the world’s largest emerging
markets investment platforms. HSBC Global Asset Management employs
approximately 200 emerging markets investment professionals across more than
15 emerging markets.* Coupled with HSBC’s broader global banking network and
HSBC Global Asset Management’s global credit research platform, our emerging
market debt team has unparalleled access to information and insights. We feel that
this is a definitive advantage that cannot be easily replicated by competitors.
Dedicated emerging markets debt resources
The Emerging Markets Debt team is 100% dedicated to managing global
emerging markets debt assets and is not encumbered with crossover mandates
from non-emerging market strategies. The team works within a strong global
investment and research platform that supports a consistent process and
communication while empowering local decisions and the ability to tactically
adjust portfolio exposures in the best interest of our clients.
Risk adjusted focus
The team has a historical track record of delivering strong investment performance
in a variety of market environments. This is due in large part to our stress testing
discipline which requires a constant recalibration of portfolios to ensure that
positions are properly sized in an effort to achieve alpha and information ratio
targets. We believe this differentiates our emerging markets capability from that
of our competitors. It is also what has enabled our team to deliver stable tracking
error in a variety of market conditions and has resulted in strong risk adjusted
performance.
Deep, innovative capabilities
The team has demonstrated multi-strategy skill set and process using external
debt, local currency and corporate debt, along with derivative instruments. The
team continually aims to exploit the full universe of evolving opportunities in a
strong risk management framework. *Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, as of 30 June 2012. Past performance is not an indication of future returns.
Investment approach
Our approach to investing in
emerging markets fixed income
is built to profit from market
inefficiencies. We employ a
diversified, multi-strategy approach
across the full opportunity set in
emerging market debt including
hard and local debt, corporate debt
and currencies.
Available strategies (inception date)
Emerging Markets Debt –
Core (Hard Currency)
October 1998
Emerging Markets Debt –
Total Return (Absolute Return)
November 1999
Emerging Markets Local Debt
August 2007
Emerging Markets Corporate
Debt
December 2010
Emerging Markets Investment
Grade Debt
December 2010
Emerging Markets Inflation-
Linked Bond
June 2008†
† Management of the strategy moved from Paris to New York in August 2012
HSBC has been active in emerging markets for over 140
years and today is one of the world’s largest managers of
emerging markets assets with more than US$134 billion of
client assets invested in local, regional and global emerging
markets funds including approximately US$87 billion in
emerging markets fixed income.* HSBC traces its roots
back to its founding member, the Hong Kong and Shanghai
Banking Corporation Limited, which was established in 1865
to finance the growing trade between China and Europe.
In this respect, HSBC Group as a whole has been actively
involved in emerging markets since the late 19th century.
HSBC foundations are built on financing commerce in
emerging market countries - this unique history has given us
the heritage, expertise and investment acumen to achieve
success for our business and more importantly our clients.
Today, emerging markets debt is a core product offering for
HSBC Global Asset Management and has been managed
as a distinct asset class for over a decade. The creation
and evolution of our emerging markets debt capability is
highlighted below. We employ strategies and techniques
that allow creative alpha creation and the potential for
outperformance, all within the context of client specific
goals, objectives and characteristics.
Why HSBC Global Asset Management for Emerging Markets Debt?
9
Goal
– Achieve strong, consistent risk-adjusted returns
Investment philosophy
– We believe fixed income markets are inefficient
– We believe inefficiencies result from
misunderstanding and mispricing risk
– We believe that fundamental research provides us the
best opportunity to actively add value in fixed income
portfolios
Approach
– Active fundamental
– Strong risk management framework
Using macro variables to build a ranking of country credits,
currencies, rates based on their relative attractiveness
– Identify global themes / risks at the asset class level
(leveraging global HSBC networks)
– Output: target beta, emerging markets asset class
allocation
Valuation analysis determines whether asset prices reflect
our views on relative attractiveness
Model portfolio construction attempts to maximize the
opportunity between our fundamental views and market
prices
Stress testing contributes to portfolios seeking to meet
their risk and return targets
Philosophy and process
Emerging Markets Debt – Core
– Seeks to capture improving credit quality of emerging
economies while reducing foreign currency risk
– Invests predominantly in emerging market sovereign
and quasi-sovereign bonds denominated in hard
currency (USD)
– Spread compression and yield are key drivers of
performance
– Tactical use of emerging market corporate bonds and
local currencies
Emerging Markets Local Debt
– Invests in local currency sovereign bonds and
emerging market FX
– Flexible approach allows for optimal asset allocation
between bonds and currencies
– Price, currency appreciation and yield are the key
drivers of performance
Emerging Markets Debt – Total Return
– Seeks positive absolute returns while reducing
volatility normally associated with emerging markets
– Flexible access to the full emerging markets debt
opportunity set, both hard and local currency
– Asset allocation decision is a key driver of returns
– No benchmark constraint allows flexibility to express
short, medium, and long-term views
Emerging Markets Debt – Corporate
– Seeks to capture rapid growth and improving credit of
corporate bond issuers in emerging economies
– Asset class has demonstrated generally higher yield
and lower default rates vs. comparable developed
market corporate bonds
– Team is able to leverage HSBC’s extensive global
emerging markets credit platform
Emerging Markets Debt – Investment Grade
– Seeks to capture the growth and relative strength of
investment grade rated emerging market debt assets
– Invests in debt issued by sovereigns, quasi-
sovereigns and corporates in both hard and local
currency
– Blended benchmark widens the investment universe
and allows for optimal asset allocation between hard
and local currency
Emerging Markets Inflation-Linked Bond
– Only asset class offering a pure inflation-hedge;
principal and coupon payments are indexed to
inflation
– Low historical correlation with traditional emerging
markets debt, helping to improve the overall risk-
adjusted return of an emerging markets debt
allocation
General strategy characteristics
* Representative overview of the investment process which may differ by product, client mandate or market conditions.
10
Balancing the risk/reward premium
Investing in emerging markets carries a heightened level of risk. Despite structural fundamental improvements and an
expanding investor base, investment risks remain at a premium to developed markets. As many emerging markets are smaller
than their developed market counterparts, relatively large inflows or outflows of capital can distort emerging market economies
through more volatile asset prices, potential inflationary pressures, currency and interest rate volatility. In addition, political and
economic instability, less publicly available information, potential for currency and capital market restrictions and changes to
momentary policy are risks that are likely to be greater for emerging markets than in developed markets.
Conclusion
Emerging market nations are benefiting from a relatively strong economic backdrop and vastly improved fiscal and monetary
circumstances which, in investment terms, has seen them move from a specialist choice for those with a healthy appetite for
risk to a mainstream investment category that has a place in many types of portfolio. Emerging Market debt has proved itself
an asset class that is capable of giving investors access to the potential growth in the region coupled with an attractive risk and
return dynamic. These characteristics can mean that an investment in this category can contribute to diversification while at the
same time potentially enhancing the expected return profile of a broad portfolio.
As detailed, we have, over the last few years witnessed the continued merging of developed and emerging market sovereign
ratings - demonstrated by the clear divide into the net creditor nations of emerging markets and net debtor nations of the
developed world. This deep structural change in the global economic landscape we expect to continue and we are convinced
that emerging nations will also continue to provide a clear investment opportunity - with emerging market debt providing a
potentially attractive way to access the long term potential returns in this vibrant category.
In order to access these opportunities investors need an institution with a deep understanding of the emerging markets terrain
and a clear track record in dealing with the businesses, institutions and the changing superstructure of evolving nations. At
HSBC Global Asset Management we bring to bear a team of highly experienced, dedicated emerging market professionals,
many located in emerging countries, which have over time developed and honed their investment methodology, providing a
degree of expertise that we believe is among the best available in the industry.
11
Important information
This brochure is intended for Professional Clients only and should not be distributed or relied upon by Retail Clients.
Risk considerations. There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. In addition, there is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in any of these strategies. Please be aware that these strategies may be subject to certain additional risks, which should be considered carefully along with the strategy’s investment objectives and fees before investing. Equity. In general equity securities’ values also fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Foreign and emerging markets. Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, and market risks. The risks of investing in emerging-market countries are greater than the risks generally associated with foreign investments. Fixed income securities. Subject to credit and interest-rate risk. Credit risk refers to the ability of an issuer to make timely payments of interest and principal. Interest-rate risk refers to fluctuations in the value of a fixed-income security resulting from changes in the general level of interest rates. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall. Credit quality. Investments in high-yield securities (commonly referred to as “junk bonds”) are often considered speculative investments and have significantly higher credit risk than investment-grade securities. The prices of high-yield securities, which may be less liquid than higher rated securities, may be more vulnerable to adverse market, economic or political conditions. Convertibles. Subject to the risks of equity securities when the underlying stock price is high relative to the conversion price (because more of the security’s value resides in the conversion feature) and debt instruments when the underlying stock price is low relative to the conversion price (because the conversion feature is less valuable). A convertible bond is not as sensitive to interest rate changes as a similar non-convertible debt instrument, and generally has less potential for gain or loss than the underlying equity security. Derivative instruments. Derivatives can be illiquid, may disproportionately increase losses and may have a potentially large negative impact on performance. Non-diversification. Focusing investments in a small number of issuers, industries, foreign currencies or particular countries or regions increases the risks associated with a single economic, political or regulatory occurrence.
Issued by HSBC Global Asset Management MENA, a unit that markets HSBC products in a sub-distributing capacity on a principal-to-principal basis, and is part of HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, PO Box 502601, Dubai, UAE, which is incorporated and regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. HSBC Bank Middle East Limited is a member of the HSBC Group. © Copyright. HSBC Global Asset Management 2012. All Rights Reserved. 22949/0912/FP12-1492
All decisions regarding the tax implications of your investment(s) should be made in connection with your independent tax advisor.
12