Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations towards Sustainable Mobility – The...

Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations towards Sustainable Mobility– The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany

Martin Zimmermann, Johannes Warth, Heiko von der Gracht, Inga-Lena Darkow

Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management EBS Business School, Wiesbaden, Germany

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011

Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany

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Motivation & Objective

Backcasting

Combination of Delphi, Scenario Planning and Backcasting

Delphi-based 4-step Backcasting

Methodological Discussion

Limitations & Further Research6

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Motivation & Objective

Radical systemic changes to current systems of mobility necessary to achieve sustainable

development (Nykvist & Whitmarsh, 2008)

German government to establish up to 1 million electric vehicles on the streets until 2020 and over 5

million vehicles until 2030 (Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development, 2009)

Combinations of technological, cultural, societal, institutional, and organizational changes

required for such transformations (Quist & Vergragt, 2006)

Approach for achieving transitions towards a sustainable future is backcasting (Dreborg, 1996)

Motivation

Demonstration of an innovative qualitative backcasting approach (Delphi & Semi-structured

interviews) to analyze transformations to sustainable mobility / facilitate future-oriented decision making

Advantages of combining these two methods will be highlighted and critically reflected

Usage of Backcasting as best practice for Competitiveness Monitor (CoMo) research project

Objective

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The content of this presentation is based on the joint research project “Competitiveness Monitor”, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (project reference number: 01IC10L18 A). Project duration: 06/2010 – 05/2013. Responsibility for the content is with the author(s).


Backcasting

Present

Desired Future

Probable Future

= Drivers = Obstacles

2030

= Overall Trends

Plausibility Check

Dreborg (1996): Backcasting

particularly useful when…

complex and persistent problems are in focus,

dominant trends are part of the problem,

external factors are present,

the need for major change exists,

the time frame and thematic focus allow for radical changes. 4


Combination of Delphi, Scenario Planning and Backcasting

Strategic Problem Orientation

Develop future vision

Backcasting analysis

Elaborate future alternative & define follow-up agenda

Embed results and agenda & stimulate follow-up

Development of projections

Evaluation of projections

• Scenario Writing

• Development of Factors

Expert CheckDelphi (von der Gracht & Darkow, 2010)

Backcasting(Quist, 2007)

Scenario Development Scenario Transfer

Generic Scenario Planning (Bishop et al, 2007; Shermack et al., 2001)

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Delphi-based 4-step Backcasting

Strategic problem

orientation

Development of 20 projections

according to STEP Execution of a

RealTime Delphi SurveyStructured desk research /

Expert workshops

Development of a

Desirable Scenario

Scenario development

technique

Development of

9 main influential factors

Coding of Delphi arguments

Backcasting – Assessing the way

towards the desirable scenario

Semi-structured interviews

Systematic identification of „hot topics“/patterns

Descriptive Coding / „Grounded

Coding“ approachPattern coding

Follow-up activities

Workshops, lectures, CoMo, etc.

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Strategic problem orientation

Development of future images and influencing factors

Development of measures Continuation

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Strategic problem orientation1

Identification of fundamental research issues to be addressed

Several stakeholder workshops with participants from OEMs, suppliers, government, academics

Enrichment of findings of the workshop by comprehensive desk research activities

Focus on German government’s plans:

Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions until 2020 by 40%, compared to 1990 (Federal

Ministry of Economics and Technology, 2007)

Key pillar: Strengthening e-mobility until 2030

Strategic Problem Orientation

STEP analysis (social, technological, economical and political factors)

In-depth analysis of a sample of academic studies and governmental-related reports

Future workshop with 11 business and six academic experts

Formulation of 20 projections in short, descriptive and provoking propositions

Development of future projections

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Development of future images and influencing factors2

Group communication

process (Linstone & Turoff, 1975)

Based on expert knowledge

Anonymous survey process

Feedback after each round

Statistical & qualitative

analysis

Consensus seeking

Results represent adequate

substitute for lack of empirical

data (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963)

Characteristics of Delphi Online-based, real-time Delphi tool

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2Alternative Ansichten

Automobilzulieferer

Hersteller Elektrofahrzeuge

Energieversorger

Flottenbetreiber

Handel

Infrastruktur

Institute / Universitäten

Journalisten

Marktforschung

OEM

Öffentliche Hand / Politk

Umweltorganisationen

Unternehmensberatungen

Verbände

Automotive suppliers 19%

Energy suppliers 4%

Fleet operators 2%

Dealers 4%

Infrastructure 2%

Institutes / Universities 16%

Journalists 4% Market research 2%

OEMs 17%

Politics 5%

Environmental organisations 4%

Consultancies 9%

Associations 5%

Alternative Views 4%

Participation of 140

experts

Response rate of 31% (of

441 invitations)

Diverse sample of experts

from 15 different groups

Delphi Participants

Coding of more than 2,000 qualitative

arguments in order to identify the

influencing factors

Identification of nine main factors

Expert check for validation

Identification of influencing factors Energy mix for vehicle operation

Germany's competitiveness

Comodal mobilityChanging market structure

Technological maturity Government intervention

Raw material supply Customer preferences

Infrastructural conditions

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Development of future images and influencing factors



Desirable Scenario 2030: Electric Mobility’s Dominance

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Electric drives (especially battery-electric vehicles, range extender and plug-in hybrids) dominate the

number of new registrations in Germany.

Conventional power trains cannot keep up with electrical drives with regard to essential performance

indicators.

The success of electric vehicles was supported by three key developments:

(1) the increased willingness of customers to pay more for these drive systems,

(2) a large part of energy obtained for new drive concepts originates from renewable

sources

(3) the comprehensive provision of efficient and cheap charging facilities for electric drives

In the segments of medium and light commercial vehicles partially or fully electric drives are

standard.

The market for new drive concepts is dominated by manufacturers from Europe and Asia alike.

In this case the raw material supply does not constitute a bottleneck in the dissemination of new

drive concepts.

Customers mainly use an optimally coordinated network of comodal mobility services.

Desirable Scenario 2030: Electric Mobility’s Dominance

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Development of measures3

Identification of measures that need to be taken in order to realize the desirable scenario

Identification of actors that need to become active in order to make the change happen

Determination of the timeliness of the different measures

Main goals

43 interviews with

experts proceeding from

15 Delphi interest groups Alignment of the

interview sample’s

distribution Descriptive / Pattern

Coding with Nvivo

Software

ProcessAlter native Ansichten

Automobi lzul ief er er

Her stel ler E lektr of ahr zeuge

E ner giever sor ger

Flottenbetr eiber

Handel

Inf r astr uktur

Insti tute / Univer si täten

J our nal isten

Mar ktf or schung

OE M

Öff entl iche Hand / P ol i tk

Umweltor ganisationen

Unter nehmensber atungen

Ver bände

Institutes / Universities 12%

Journalists 5%

Market research 2%

OEMs 19%

Politics 2%

Associations 7%

Environmental organisations 7%

Consultancies 2%Alternative Views 9%

Automotive suppliers 7%

Manufacturers electric vehicles 5%

Energy suppliers 7%

Fleet operators 7%

Dealers 5%

Infrastructure 5%

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Development of measures3

Incentivisation for customers vs. industry (R&D) support

Role of established vs. new companies / co-operations

Role of comodal mobility for electric mobility scenario

Selected discussed topics

Follow-up of backcasting exercises very important to actually use and implement the content that

has been generated (Quist & Vergragt, 2006)

Multiple workshops with stakeholders from the automotive industry

Contribution to the joint research project “Competitiveness Monitor” (CoMo) within the

EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research

Process

Continuation4

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Methodological Discussion

So far, (qualitative) participatory backcasting approaches mostly executed with the help of

workshops and focus group discussions (Carlsson-Kanyama, 2011; Dreborg, Moll, & Padovan, 2008; Kok et al., 2006;

Svenfelt et al., 2011).

Aim of our backcasting exercise: Inclusion of a diverse group of stakeholders not only in the

development of the scenarios, but also in the backcasting step itself.

Combination of an innovative Delphi survey with individual semi-structured expert interviews and

following structured coding

By using the web-based real-time Delphi approach we were able to invite a broad number of

participants (140) to the study which enabled us to reach experts from 15 different user groups.

Our approach enables us to both include a large number of different stakeholders and still having a

structured and comprehensible process (coding) of how the results are analysed and further used

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Limitations & Further Research

Broad range of opinions in both Delphi and interviews step did not allow for a consensus in all cases

e.g. when developing the scenarios or elaborating on the measures

Difficulties in elaborating on timeliness of single measures due to variety of topics discussed

Limitations

Optimisation of structured stakeholder inclusion in 3rd step (backcasting)

Combination of several Delphis for 1) scenario creation and 2) backcasting analysis

Recruitment of “opposing party” discussion panels based on Delphi data

Expert vs. non-expert validation of scenarios etc.

Further Research

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Thank you!

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Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge ManagementEBS Business School

Soehnleinstr. 8 FD-65201 Wiesbaden / GermanyTel. +49 611 7102 2100Fax +49 611 360 18 802Email [email protected]/futurestudies


Backup

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Mission

Create the future together

Center for Futures Studies Research and Knowledge Management Research

Achievements

Network

• Part of EBS Network with 180 partner universities and 200 business partners worldwide

• Anchored in the Foresight-Community: Network for Future Studies Research, European Foresight Network, World Future Society, Oxford Scenario Network, EIRAC

• Present in emerging markets (Russia, India and China)

• www.ebs.edu/smi/futurestudies.html

Key Aspects

• To pursue scientifically-established research in Futures Studies and manage its quality

• To generate futures knowledge to support decision-making processes on governmental, economic and scientific issues

• To establish Futures Studies research as an academic discipline / strategic instrument in business practice

• Contract research with business partners (futures studies, tool development)

• Scenario transfer: turn research results into strategy

• Collaborate in public sector research projects

• High diversity in team (mix of expertise)

• Methodical and professional competence

• Scenario and Delphi Analyses

• Roadmapping & Backcasting

• Early Warning and Risk Management

• Wildcard Analyses

• Futures Studies Workshops

• Method Integration (Scenario-Toolbox)

Timeframe

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Scenario 1

Center for Futures Studies. Shaping the future together!Methodological Lead

http://www.ebs.edu/smi/futurestudies.html


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