Developing Political Strategies

- Nelson Mandela- chapter 10

PAFPAF 101101

“There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things.”

~Niccolo Machiavelli

Module 5, Lecture 5

Choosing A Player

With which to develop a strategyWith which to develop a strategy

Issue Position FirmIssue Position Firm

Priority HighPriority High

Power HighPower High

Lowest issue position (best to start with)Lowest priorityHighest power

Players to Target With Your Strategy

Thinking About Strategies

Making Solid ArgumentsAdd or Delete PlayersChanging Issue PositionChanging PowerChanging PrioritiesPutting it Together

Key Strategies for Changing Issue Position

1.Compromise is the act 1.Compromise is the act of moving towards each of moving towards each other.other.

2. Horse-trading is the 2. Horse-trading is the act of back scratching.act of back scratching.

Who is the greatest change agent of the 21st century?

         

  

Facts About South AfricaPopulation About 13% White, 75% Black, 9% Mixed, and 3% Indian16th Century Dutch Colonize and Become Afrikaners1910 - British Takeover After Beating Up Afrikaners1948 - National Party Establishes Apartheid As Law1950’s-1990’s - Organized and Violent Opposition1994 - Multi-Racial Regime Headed By Mandela Takes Power

Facts about Mandela

Joins African National Congress (ANC) in 1942Jailed in 1963Released in 1990Becomes President in 1994

Figure 1: 1986 Prince ChartFigure 1: 1986 Prince Chart Player Issue

PositionPower Priority Prince

ANC +5 1 5 +25Communist Party +5 1 5 +25Pan African Congress

+2 1 2 +4

Liberal Party +5 1 5 +25National Party -4 5 5 -100Conservative Parties

-5 3 5 -75

West and Int’l Business

+3 3 1 +9

Military -5 4 5 -100Inkatha +2 1 5 +10

“One person, one vote” in South Africa”

Probability of Probability of ImplementationImplementation:: 98/373= 26%

Major challenges were overcome by threats, promises, horse trading, and compromise

1. Cohesion of “friends” – ANC, PAC, Lib. Party, Communist Party, Inkatha, International Business and Most Countries

2. Building Trust with “enemies” – National Party, Military, Conservative Parties

Facts About South Africa

Timing is everything, as in the case of all change

Facts About South Africa

Decline of South African EconomyBuilding of International PressureFall of Soviet Union

+5

+4

+3

+2

+1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

5 10 15 20 25

Issue PositionIssue Position

Power x Priority

“One person, one vote in South Africa”Figure 3: Prince Political MapFigure 3: Prince Political Map

X ANC, Communistic Party, Liberal Party

X (ANC Only)

X West and Int’l Business

X Pan African Congress

X Inkatha X

X Conservative Parties

X Military

National Party X

x

X

Figure 2: 1990 Prince ChartFigure 2: 1990 Prince Chart

Player Issue Position

Power Priority Prince

ANC +5 3 5 +75Communist Party +5 1 5 +25Pan African Congress

+2 1 2 +4

Liberal Party +5 1 5 +25National Party +2 5 5 +50Conservative Parties

-5 3 5 -75

West and Int’l Business

+3 3 1 +9

Military +1 4 5 +20Inkatha +2 3 5 +30

“One person, one vote in South Africa”

ProbabilityProbability of of ImplementationImplementation:: 238/313= 76%

Lessons About Change

Change is very slow and very hardMacro social, economic, and political trends have to be properly alignedFear is the most powerful source of change, greed is the second most powerfulCapacity for compromise comes from culture, circumstance, and leadership

Important Information!

Exercise 10.5 is worth 40 pointsYou will lose all points if you don’t submit your proposal on the website and attach the receipt. http://supadoc.syr.edu/paf101asp/finalReportMC.shtml

You must also complete the post-test survey and attach it to your module, or you will lose points

Pre/Post Evaluations - PAF 101NO EXCUSES