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Development and Prospects of CSP in China Sun Rui [email protected] Zheng Yunzhe [email protected] World Bank CSP MENA KIP and STA Workshop March 6 th ,2017
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Page 1: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

Development and Prospects of CSP

in China

Sun Rui [email protected]

Zheng Yunzhe [email protected]

World Bank CSP MENA KIP and STA Workshop

March 6th,2017

Page 2: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

Contents

1. Situation & Prospects of Electric Power

2.

3. Role of CSP in Power System

2

Technical Development Situation of CSP

4. Development Prospects of CSP

Page 3: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

3

1 Situation & Prospects of Electric Power

1.1 China’s Non-fossil Energy Development Goal

➢ China’s energy development strategy is developing non-fossil

energy and replacing fossil energy gradually, to achieve

sustainable development of economy and reduction of pollution

and CO2 emissions.

➢ By 2030, CO2 emissions will peak and China will try to reach it

ahead of schedule. The CO2 emissions intensity will be reduced

by 60-65% compared with that in 2005.

➢ China is making great efforts to increase the share of non-fossil

energy in primary energy consumption to 15% by 2020, and

20% by 2030.

Page 4: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

4

2015年 2020年 2030年

4.44.85

6.0

11.4%15.0%

20.0%

2030

➢ It is forecasted that the total energy consumption will reach 4.85 and 6 billion tons

standard coal by 2020 and 2030 respectively; Non-fossil energy consumption

proportion will be 15% and 20% respectively.

Energy Consumption Forecasts (billion tons standard coal)

Non-fossil energy

Fossil energy

2015 2020

1 Situation & Prospects of Electric Power

1.1 China’s Non-fossil Energy Development Goal

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1.2 Forecast of Power Generation Structure

➢ The proportion of non-fossil fuels power generation is 31% in 2016. It is expected to

reach 35% and 41% respectively in 2020 and 2030.

1 Situation & Prospects of Electric Power

Coal

65.2%

Hydro

19.7%

Gas

3.1%

Nuclear

3.6%

Wind

4.0%

Coal

50%

Gas

9%

Hydro

17%

Nuclear

12%

Wind

7%

Solar

3%

5.99 TrillionkWh

203020202016

10 TrillionkWh

Coal

60%

Hydro

19%

Gas

5%

Wind

6%

Solar

2%

7 TrillionkWh

Solar1.1%

Nuclear

6%

Page 6: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

6

➢ The proportion of non-fossil fuel power capacity is expected to reach 38% and 44%

respectively in 2020 and 2030.

1 中国可再生能源发展现状及展望1 Situation & Prospects of Electric Power

203020202016

Hydro

18.6%

Wind

9.0%

Solar

4.7%Coal

57.3%

Gas

4%

Water

17%

Wind

11%

Solar

5%

Gas

6%

Coa…

Water

15%

Wind

10%

Solar

10%

Gas

10%

Coal

46%

1.65 BillionkW

2 BillionkW

3 BillionkW

Nuclear

3%

Pumped

2%

Pumped

1.6%

Pumped

3%

Nuclear

6%

Nuclear

2%

1.3 Forecast of Power Capacity Structure

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7

1.4 Development of Wind Power

29,5846,23

61,4276,52

96,57

131,3148,64

210

300

494 7411030

13831598

1853

2410

4170

6692

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Po

wer

Gen

era

tio

n10

8/k

Wh

Insta

lled

Cap

acit

y /

GW

Wind Power Installed Capacity and Generation

风电装机

风电发电量

1 中国可再生能源发展现状及展望1 Situation & Prospects of Electric Power

Installed CapacityPower Generation

Page 8: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

8

0,26 2,12 3,4115,89

24,8642,63

77,42

110

300

1 6 36 84 235

385

662

1656

3327

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2030

Po

wer

Gen

era

tio

n/1

08

kW

h

Insta

lled

Cap

acit

y/G

W

Solar Power Installed Capacity and Generation

太阳能装机

太阳能发电量

1 中国可再生能源发展现状及展望1 Situation & Prospects of Electric Power

Installed CapacityPower Generation

1.5 Development of Solar Power

Page 9: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

2.

Contents

1. Situation & Prospects of Electric Power

3. Role of CSP in Power System

9

Technical Development Situation of CSP

4. Development Prospects of CSP

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10

2.1 Technical Research and Application Status

➢ CSP technologies have been researched for more than 10 years by many science institutions

and universities in China, which is the basis of the commercial application;

➢ Many technologies and products of Independent Intellectual Property have been developed in

China;

➢ Many CSP pilots have been constructed;

➢ The SUPCON Delingha 10 MW Tower CSP commercial power plant has been put into operation

since 2013;

➢ Localization rate of equipments and materials is above 90%;

➢ Production capability can meet the need of CSP projects;

➢ Dozens of projects have finished feasibility study work;

➢ In September 2016, National Energy Administration of China identified 20 projects with about

1.35 GW as the first batch of demonstration projects, some of which have already started

construction work;

➢ The planned CSP installed capacity is 5 GW by 2020.

1 中国可再生能源发展现状及展望2 Technical Development Situation of CSP

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11

2.2 Pilots and Commercial Plants

Site:WulateZhongqi, Inner Mongolia

DNI: 2170 kWh/m2/a

Commissioning Time:2013.04

Constructor:Royal Tech CSP

Opening Width: 5.8 m

Loop Length:600 m

Collection Area:3270 m2

Peak Heat Output:2.3 MWth

Inlet Temp: 293℃

Outlet Temp: 393℃

Photothermic Efficiency>67%

(By DLR in 2013.09)

Thermal Oil Trough Collecting Loop (ROYAL TECH)

2 Technical Development Situation of CSP

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12

Molten Salt Trough Power System(CSPBH)

Site:Akesai, Gansu

DNI: 2365 kWh/m2/a

Installed Capacity:200 kW

Loop Length: 800 m

Collection Area:4531 m2

HTF:Molten Salt

Outlet Temp:550℃

TES Time: 15h (2-tank Molten Salt)

Superheated Steam: 8MPa ,540℃

Commissioning Time:2016.10

Constructor:CSPBH

2.2 Pilots and Commercial Plants

2 Technical Development Situation of CSP

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13

Site:Yanqing, Beijing

DNI: 1240 kWh/m2/a

Rated Power: 1MWe

Area of Each Heliostat : 100 m2

Number of Heliostats : 100

Tower Height: 100m

HTF:Water

Outlet Parameter:2.7MPa/400℃

TES time: 1h(Thermal Oil)

Annual Output:270×104 kWh

Commissioning Time:2012.08

Constructor:IEE CAS

Test Tower Power Plant (IEE CAS)

2.2 Pilots and Commercial Plants

2 Technical Development Situation of CSP

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Site:Delingha, Qinghai

DNI: 2200 kWh/m2/a

Installed Capacity:10 MW

Land Area:15.50×104 m2

Heliostat Area:2 m2×24400

20 m2×1000

Absorber(Water) Outlet:9.8MPa ,310℃

Absorber(Molten Salt) Outlet :565 ℃

TES Time: 2h(2-tank Molten Salt)

Turbine Inlet: 8.83MPa, 510℃

Commissioning Time:2013.06(Water System)

2016.08(Molten Salt System)

Constructor:SUPCON

Commercial Tower Power Plant (SUPCON)

2.2 Pilots and Commercial Plants

2 Technical Development Situation of CSP

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15

Site:Dunhuang, Gansu

DNI:2000kWh/m2/a

Installed Capacity:10MW

Land Area:1.2 km2

Area of Each Heliostat :115.5 m2

Number of Heliostats:1525

Tower Height:138.3m

Absorber Outlet: 565 ℃

TES Time:15h(2-tank Molten Salt)

Commissioning Time:2016.12

Constructor:ShouHang

Commercial Tower Power Plant (Shouhang)

2.2 Pilots and Commercial Plants

2 Technical Development Situation of CSP

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16

2.3 First Batch of CSP Demonstration Projects

➢ 20 projects in total capacity with

1.349 GW distributing five province

regions.

➢ Grid purchase price is ¥ 1.15/kWh.

➢ Such price can only be applied to

the projects put into operation by

the end of 2018 . Most projects are

expected to complete construction

by then.

➢Most projects adopt China’s self-

developed collecting technology

➢ The power plant engineering work

is undertaken by domestic design

institutes. Distribution of 20 Demo Projects

1 in Xinjiang

2 in Inner

Mongolia

4 in Hebei

4 in Qinghai

9 in Gansu

2 Technical Development Situation of CSP

Page 17: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

17

20

1349MW

4 Linear Fresnel,

200MW

(2 Water + 1 Molten Salt

+ 1 Thermal Oil)

7 Trough, 464MW

(5 Thermal Oil

+ 2 Molten Salt)

9 Tower,685MW

(7 Molten Salt

+ 2 Water)

50.6% 34.4%

14.8%

➢ Some projects have adjusted the solutions in application document. For example, 2

water tower projects have be changed to molten salt tower.

2.3 First Batch of CSP Demonstration Projects

2 Technical Development Situation of CSP

Page 18: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

2.

Contents

1. Situation & Prospects of Electric Power

18

Technical Development Situation of CSP

4. Development Prospects of CSP

3. Role of CSP in Power System

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19

3 Role of CSP in Power System

0 5 10 15 200

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

时间(时)

功率(

MW)

2012/1/6

2012/2/8

2012/4/19

2012/4/26

Typical Wind Power Output Curve from a Certain GridTypical PV Output Curve

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0

➢China's wind and PV power have been developed

very fast in recent years. However, due to the

instability, there is a need to build energy storage

power stations.

➢ Pumped-hydro station is limited by site resources, and

battery storage is uneconomical. Therefore, some

regions have limited acceptance of wind and PV

power, leading to a waste of energy.

3.1 Challenge for Wind and PV Power

Page 20: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

20

3.2 Performance of CSP Units

Items CSP Plant Coal-fired Power Plant

Load Range 20%—100% 50%—100%

Heating Rate of SGS Limited to 10 ℃/min

Limited to 1.5 ℃/min

(ignition period for boiler)

Limited to 5 ℃/min

(other periods)

Startup time for turbine

(from 0 to 100%)20 min—60 min

(hot start—cold start)60 min—240 min

(hot start—cold start)

➢ CSP units have better regulation characteristics, compared with coal-fired units.

3 Role of CSP in Power System

Page 21: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

21

Performance of 19.9 MW Gemasolar CSP plant in Spain

(TES: 15h)

2012.07.11 0:00—23:50

3 Role of CSP in Power System

3.2 Performance of CSP Units

Page 22: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

22

Performance of 19.9 MW Gemasolar CSP plant in a week (TES: 15h)

3 Role of CSP in Power System

3.2 Performance of CSP Units

Page 23: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

23

➢ CSP units with thermal energy storage (TES) can maintain stable power output,

and with big enough TES, it can generate power 24-hour continuously. Therefore, it

can respond rapidly to primary and second frequency regulation in power grid.

➢ Role of CSP in power grid :

1)As base load units of power grid;

2)As peak load units of power grid.

➢ Power grid with CSP can improve acceptance proportion of wind and PV power.

3 Role of CSP in Power System

3.3 Regulation Effects of CSP Units

Page 24: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

2.

Contents

1. Situation & Prospects of Electric Power

24

Technical Development Situation of CSP

3. Role of CSP in Power System

4. Development Prospects of CSP

Page 25: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

25

4 Development Prospects of CSP

4.1 DNI Resource in China

DNI(kWh/m2a)

DNI Distribution in China

来自中国气象局风能太阳能资源中心

Page 26: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

26

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

内蒙古 西藏 青海 新疆 甘肃 合计

337120

169360 156690 145040 140110

948320

➢ According to preliminary estimation, there is about 970 thousand km2 available

land with DNI>1700kWh/m2 in China, mainly in Inner Mongolia, Tibet,

Qinghai, Xinjiang and Gansu, where most land is gobi or desert.

(km2)

4 Development Prospects of CSP

4.2 Land Resource in China

Inner Mongolia Tibet Qinghai Xinjiang Gansu Total

Page 27: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

27

➢ If 100 thousand km2 land is used

for CSP, annual power generation

may reach about 5.4 trillion kWh .

➢ If the units 100% output hours is

3500, available installed capacity is

about 1.5 billion kW.

Some landform selected for CSP Projects

4 Development Prospects of CSP

4.3 Estimated Power Capacity

Page 28: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

28CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China

CSP LCOE Prediction in China

➢ Current investment cost for CSP plant

is ¥25,000-30,000 /kW. By the end of

2020, It is expected that the investment

cost will be reduced to ¥15,000/kW, and

the LCOE will be lowered to ¥0.75/kWh.

4 Development Prospects of CSP

4.4 Estimation of Investment Cost & LCOE

Positive Situation

Basic Situation

Positive Situation

Basic Situation

yuan

yuan

Page 29: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

29

4.5 Summary

➢With the guidance and support of national policy, China has started the large-scale

development of CSP.

➢ CSP will play a significant role in China’s energy transformation with bright

development prospects.

➢ The increase of China’s CSP projects will provide a good development opportunity for

Chinese and overseas manufacturers of equipment and materials.

➢With the increasing domestic CSP construction experience, Chinese enterprises will

greatly improve the technology and product quality, contributing substantially to the

global CSP development.

4 Development Prospects of CSP

Page 30: Development and Prospects of CSP in China - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930661489525866788/Day-I... · CSP Investment Cost Prediction in China CSP LCOE Prediction in China

30

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E-mail: [email protected]

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