DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-CARBON SCENARIODEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-CARBON SCENARIO FOR VIETNAM
Authors NGUYEN Thai Hoa Kei GOMI Yuzuru MATSUOKA Junichi FUJINO Authors: NGUYEN Thai Hoa, Kei GOMI, Yuzuru MATSUOKA, Junichi FUJINO,
Mikiko KAINUMA, Ram Manohar SHRESTHA,
“Preparatory Workshop on Exploring Potential for Low Carbon Society in Vietnam“
18th April 2011 @Hanoi, Vietnam
ContentsContents2
1. Background of research2. Objectives of studyj y3. Methodology4. Setting a framework 4. Setting a framework 5. Results 6 Conclusions6. Conclusions7. Models use for next phase of this research
E pected o tp t of this st d8. Expected output of this study
1. Background of research1. Background of research3
About VIETNAM and climate change Why we need a LCS?
In conventional growth pathway, developed- Land area: 331,690 km2
- Population: 86,5 mil- GDP: 1040 USD/cap
g p y, pcountries have been emitting a large amountof green house gases in the process ofeconomic growth.
- Suffer the most from climatechange and undergoes increasingfrequent natural disasters
2007 IPCC ti i t d th t th
To avoid it, a developing country likeVietnam should leap-frog this process andcreates low-carbon society (LCS) directly.
- 2007, IPCC anticipated that thesea level rise from 30cm to 1mover the next 100 years- Cause a yearly capital loss of up
One of the strategic objectives of Vietnamgovernment is “take an opportunity todevelop towards a low-carbon economy”.
to 17 billion USD (WB 2008)- Lose over 12% of its territory,where 23% of the 84 millionVietnamese people reside
In order to contribute discussion on LCS, wecreated a national sustainable LCS scenarioin Vietnam in 2030.
V p p
1. Background of research (con’t)1. Background of research (con t)4
Vi t t h i iti ti t ib t t d l t d l b Vietnam government has initiatives contribute to develop towards low-carboneconomy NTPCC(1)
Vi i i i li h i d l l i (SEDP Vietnam is mainstreaming climate change in development planning (SEDP,SEDS(2)).
Addressing GHG emissions from energy sector. Engagement in carbon markets (CDM projects)
not sufficient to enable Vietnam to meet its national development priorities interm of economic growth and sustainable development.
Development of a low-carbon economy scenario can solve this CO2 emission in the target year will be calculated based on the future vision of
socio-economic image and energy demand of the country Concrete countermeasures (schedule of measures, cost to implement measures
etc,.) to achieve the desired goal in term of low-carbon economy also can beestimated.
(1) National Target Program Response to climate change approved in 2007
(2) Socio-economic development plan, socio-economic development strategy
2. Objective of study2. Objective of study5
To show an example of quantitative LCS scenario in Vietnam
For that:- To apply methodology to create a LCS scenario
T if i i i d i CO i i i h- To quantify socio-economic assumptions and estimate CO2 emission in thetarget year
- Identification countermeasures that should be taken to achieve the targetCO2 reduction
- To develop a scenario-creation methodology suitable for Vietnam
3. Methodology
6
Procedures towards creating a LCS
Basic idea is Back-casting approachRobinson (1990): “working backwards from a particular desired end-
i h i d d i h h i l f ibili f hpoint to the present in order to determine the physical feasibility of thatfuture and what policy measures would be required to reach that point”
This approach can be divided into 2 phases:Phase 1: developing a “Snapshot” as a goal of LC economy
Describe a future desired target as a LC economy goalg y gEstimate a quantitative snapshot as a LC economy
Phase 2: developing a “Roadmap” towards LC economyDevelop a system of low-carbon countermeasuresDevelop a system of low carbon countermeasuresSetting quantitative information of countermeasuresEstimate a roadmap towards LC economyPropose a portfolio of countermeasure to policy makersPropose a portfolio of countermeasure to policy makers.
3. Methodology
7
Procedures towards creating a LCS
Phase 2: developing a “Roadmap” towards LCS
Phase 1: developing a “Snapshot” as a goal of LCS
Structure of Extended Snap shot tool (ExSS)
8
Export by goods
Government expenditure
Import ratio
Input coefficient matrixHousehold size
IO analysis
Output by industry Population
Household size
Floor area per output
Number of household
Output of commercial
industryPopulation
Output of manufacturing
industry
Private consumptions
Fixed capital formation
Trip per person
Trip distance
Modal share
Commercial building floor
area
Freight transport demand
Passenger transport demand
Freight generation per output
Transport distance
Energy service demand per driving force
Fuel share
Energy service demand
Energy end-use device share
Modal shareEnergy efficiency Final energy demand
Energy demand (DPG)Central power
E ffi i (CPG)
Energy end-use device energy efficiency
Energy demand (DPG) generation (CPG)
Energy demand (CPG)
Dispersed power generation (DPG)
Energy efficiency DPG
Energy efficiency (CPG)
Fuel share (CPG)
Transmission loss (CPG)
Own use (CPG)
CO2 emission factorExogenous variablesParameters
Endogenous variables
Primary energy supply
CO2 emssions
Own use (CPG)
4. Setting of Framework4. Setting of Framework9
• Base Year : 2005
• Target Year 2030
• Emission Target
Show the potential mitigation of CO2 emissions in 2030CM d 2030B Ucompared to 2030BaU
• Target activitiesR id i l i l i d i l Residential sector, commercial sector, industrial sector, passenger and freight transport sectors, power sector
• Low-carbon countermeasures• Low-carbon countermeasuresA set of counter measures were collected from the previous studies (Japan, and other Asian countries)( p , )
5. ResultsSocio Economic Scenario of Vietnam
10
2005 2030 2030/2005
Population (million people) 83,1 99,3 1.2
No. of households (million) 25,2 33,1 1.3
GDP (trillion VND) 818.5 4,182.5 5.1
Gross output (trillion VND) 1,933.6 10,404.8 5.4
Primary industry (trillion VND) 261.0 1,068.9 4.1Primary industry (trillion VND) 261.0 1,068.9 4.1
Secondary industry (trillion VND) 1,176.0 6,675.4 5.7
T ti i d t (t illi VND) 496 6 2 660 561 5 4Tertiary industry (trillion VND) 496.6 2,660,561 5.4
Passenger transport demand (mil p-km) 57,696 518,785 9.0
Freight transport demand (mil t-km) 100,728 1,085,643 10.8
5. Results (cont.) Energy Demand By Sector in 2030 BaU
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Energy demand in Vietnamis projected to increase fromis projected to increase from44.4 Mtoe in 2005 to 144.7Mtoe in 2030 BaU case (3.3times).)
Industry is expected to be 52 Mtoe and will maintain 52 Mtoe and will maintain the largest share of 46% in 2030 BaU case
144.744.4
5. Results (cont.) CO b B U 2030CO2 emission by sectors in BaU 2030
12
CO2 Emission in Vietnam isprojected to increase from80 9 M CO (200 )80.9 Mtoe CO2 (2005) to446.3 Mtoe CO2 (5.5times) (2030 BaU)
Industrial Sector willincrease 5.4 times in totalas compared to 2005 inas compared to 2005 inCO2 emission . (47% oftotal CO2 emission in2030 BaU)
446.380.9
5. Results (cont.) CO d i b iCO2 reductions by action
13
27 931.7
400 0
450.0
500.0
Action 1
ion
28.1
77.7
27.9
300.0
350.0
400.0
ns
(MtC
O2) Action 2
Action 3
Action 4
Action 5
times 45% re
duct
446.3
36.3
28.1
200.0
250.0
s/re
du
ctio
n
CO2 Emission5.5 t
Action 5. Smart Power plants
18%
Action 1. Convinient Transport
16%
244.7100.0
150.0
G e
mis
sion
s
Action 4. Fuel switch
of industry 14%
A i 3
Action 2.Green
Building14%
80.9
0.0
50.0
2005 BaU 2030 CM 2030
GH
G Action 3. Energy
Efficiency Improvement
38%
Five actions to reduce CO2 emission
5. Results (cont.) ACTION 1 Convenient transportACTION 1 Convenient transport
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- a shift from private vehicles to public
transportation; and
- increased penetration of fuel switch.
- CO2 reductions from modal shift is 22.1
Mt-CO2.(70%)
- Promoting fuel switch could reduce 9.6 Mt-
CO (30%)CO2. (30%)
5. Results (cont.)ACTION 2 Green Building
15
ACTION 2 Green Building
This action focuses on measures of fuel shifting
and natural energy utilization of residential andand natural energy utilization of residential and
commercial sectors in which CO2 emissions
reduction in this two sectors was 12.6 and 15.3
mil t-CO2, respectively.
This includes several measures such as: biomass
heating, solar heating, photovoltaic power ect.
5. Results (cont.) ACTION 3 Energy Efficiency ImprovementACTION 3 Energy Efficiency Improvement
16
This action is able to reduce CO2 emissions in all
sectors by 77.7 million t-CO2,
This action aims to turn the existing or low-
efficiency device, equipment, motors or vehicles
into “best available technology” models in all
sector.
“N i l S i P E S i“National Strategic Program on Energy Saving
and Effective Use” is one of policies used in
d t i l t thi tiorder to implement this action.
5. Results (cont.) ACTION 4 Fuel Switch of IndustryACTION 4 Fuel Switch of Industry
17
The potential mitigation CO2 emission of this
action was 28.0 mil t-CO2 (14% of total
Coal Oil Gas Biomass Electricity
2005 Furnace 1968 1623 49 0 0 Boiler 0 0 0 0 1497 Motor 480 717 13 0 249 Others 4799 2971 100 0 1919 Total 49% 30% 1% 0% 20%
reduction)Total 49% 30% 1% 0% 20% Share 2352 631 38 0 173 2030 BaU Furnace 9630 1619 3846 0 2755 Boiler 4821 4474 3057 0 7844 Motor 0 0 0 0 8365 Others 1816 1952 1140 0 316 Total 16267 8046 8043 0 19280 Share 32% 16% 16% 0% 37%
Fuel uses in industry sector will be able to shift
from high carbon intensity to lower carbon
i i
Share 32% 16% 16% 0% 37% 2030 CM Furnace 3262 567 4475 1800 3071 Boiler 4412 982 6106 2726 4255 Motor 0 0 0 0 6760 Others 1803 549 2494 1279 1875 Total 9477 2097 13075 5804 15961 Share 20% 5% 28% 13% 34%
intensity.
P li i f thi t h ld b f tPolicies for this sector should be focus on tax,
subsidy and low interest loans.
5. Results (cont.) ACTION 5 Smart Power PlantsACTION 5 Smart Power Plants
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This action is calculated to reduce CO2 emission
by 26.8 mil t-CO2
This action comprises of 4 main measures;
namely, utilizing economically efficient domestic
energy resources, promoting the use of
renewable energies, reducing transmission and
di ib i l d d l i ldistribution loss, and developing nuclear power
plant.
6. Conclusion6. Conclusion19
(1) The potential of CO2 mitigation in 2030 is 45%reduction from BaU.
(2) With annual GDP growth of 7% and population of99.3 million persons, per capita emission will increase99.3 million persons, per capita emission will increaseto 4.5t-CO2 in 2030 business-as-usual (BaU) or 4.6times higher than base year 2005times higher than base year 2005.
(3) Among the measures, energy efficiency improvementf d h h l i l (38% f lwas found to have the largest potential (38% of total
reductions).
7. Models use for next phase of this research
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Landuse (AFOLU) model
Objectives: Estimation and evaluation of GHG emission and reduction potentials in AFOLU sectorAFOLU sector
Target Year: 2005-2030
Target Gas: CO2, CH4, N2Og 2, 4, 2
Target area: Vietnam
Expected Output: GHG emissions, reduction potentials in Agriculture and LULUCF sectors
Structure of Agriculture, Forestry and Other Landuse (AFOLU) model
Population
Output of forestry
Settlement
Forest landForest product
Wetland
Landuse(t-1)
From ExSS
Output of agriculture(Monetary)
p y(Monetary)
Cropland
GrasslandPopulation of livestock
Crop production
T d l
(t-1)Landuse change
matrixLanduse
(t)
To emission model
GHG emission Carbon stock f
Carbon stock change from
biomass
Net biomass growth
AreaCarbon loss
Carbon gain
Wood remove Harvested woodFrom land-use
changechange from land-
use changeCarbon stock change from
DOMFuel wood
Disturbance Area of disturbance
Fuel wood removed
DOM out Area of disturbance
Carbon stock change from Soil
Carbon stock change from
HWP
DOM inDisturbance
Mortality
Slash
Area of disturbance
Area remaining
Harvested woodCarbon stock change from mineral
A b il t
GHG emissionFrom fire
Area of fire
CH4/N2O emission Emission factor
HWP
Carbon lossFrom organic
Carbon stock change from inorganic
Area by soil type
Wood products, imports and exportsGHG emission
From agriculture
from manure management
CH4 emission from enteric fermentation
N2O emission from
Number of animals
Area by crop type
Emission factor
Number of animals
N2O emission from cropland & soils
GHG emission from rice cultivation
y p yp
Wood products, imports and exports
Nitrogen fertilizer consumption per area
7. Models use for next phase of this research (con’t)
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Landuse (AFOLU) model
Bottom-up type model with detailed countermeasure selection framework
A i i i f i Assessing transition of countermeasures over time
Analyzing effect of policies such as carbon tax, subsidy, and so on
Include 2 tools to deal with countermeasures (ExSS Driving Force Tool,Enduse Model)
Calculate competition among countermeasures based on cost and lifetime ofcountermeasures.cou e easu es.
7. Models use for next phase of this research (con’t)
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AIM/ Enduse model
Using for second phase ofback-casting approach
Estimates stock dynamics ofenergy service devices ofenergy and supply demandgy pp ysectors based oneconomically reasonablechoicechoice.
It can assess cost ofparticular sector to achieveparticular emission targets. Structure of AIM/Enduse Model
Source: AIM/Enduse Model Manual (Ver 3, 2010/06/01)
7. Models use for next phase of this research (con’t)
Back-casting Tool (BCT)
U i f d h f b k Using for second phase of back-casting approach
Designs the time schedule andcombinations of countermeasurescombinations of countermeasureswhich maximizes integratedbenefits including co-benefitsduring planning period underduring planning period underseveral resource constrains
Constraints considered arefinancial, human and,administrative ones in private andpublic sectors.
B k ti T lBack-casting ToolSource: Asian Low-carbon Society scenarios: Tools and Practices (K. Gomi, 2010)
8. Expected outcome of this research8. Expected outcome of this research25
D l h i f GHG i i i Vi Develop the current inventory of GHG emissions in Vietnam Quantify socio-economic activity level and calculate energy
and non-energy GHG emissions in 2030and non-energy GHG emissions in 2030. Define a roadmap to achieve “low-carbon economy” in 2030.
Time schedule of countermeasures Cost to implement measures GHG emissions reductions by countermeasures
This scenario will be proposed to policy makers and stimulatediscussion among stakeholders. Through the discussion, evaluationand modification by various stakeholders, more realistic andy ,acceptable scenario would be defined. Then, Vietnam governmentwill be able to formulate policies towards LCS.
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